Dynasty Dilemma

Dynasty Dilemma: Calvin Ridley

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Dynasty Dilemma: Calvin Ridley

 

Calvin Ridley makes his long-awaited return to the NFL and fantasy football rosters in the 2023 season, following a suspension in 2022 and an extended absence for personal reasons in 2021. Ridley is currently going as WR16, a high-end WR2, in startup/best ball drafts during the offseason and is one of the more polarizing players to roster in fantasy football this season; he certainly has the chance to be a massive boom-or-bust for fantasy owners. 

 

Following a dominant debut for the Jaguars, Ridley showed no signs of rust and re-established himself as one of the elite wide receivers in the game with an incredibly high ceiling alongside Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson. 

 

 

Jacksonville Offense

The Jacksonville Jaguars were one of the bigger surprises during the 2022 season, the first under Head Coach Doug Pederson, winning the AFC South and advancing to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Trevor Lawrence enjoyed a breakout campaign in his sophomore season, and the ceiling keeps rising for the Jaguars. Last season, Jacksonville ranked 12th in the National Football League in passing plays (59.4%). In his first season with the Jaguars, Christian Kirk finished as the WR11, Zay Jones ended the campaign as the WR26, and Evan Engram posted a TE5 finish. Under Pederson, the Jaguars will continue to throw the ball and put up points - Jacksonville was also the ninth-best scoring offense in 2022 (23.9 ppg). 

Christian Kirk led the Jaguars in targets during the 2022 season with 133, and Zay Jones was targeted 121 times. Jacksonville replaces Marvin Jones (81 targets) with an upgrade in Calvin Ridley. Building the rapport with Trevor Lawrence may take some time, but Jacksonville should continue to be an elite offense. 

 

Contract Year

At 28 years old and nearly two full seasons removed from the NFL, Ridley enters the 2023 season in the final year of his rookie deal and the need to prove he is still an elite receiver. During the first three years of his NFL career, Ridley averaged 227.43 points per season, with his best year coming in 2020, where he scored 280.5 points, capitalizing on an increase in targets due to Julio Jones missing seven games. 

In 2021, Chris Godwin played for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the franchise tag and posted the second-best season of his career, finishing as WR16, scored 240.4 PPR fantasy points, and parlayed that into a three-year, 60 million dollar contract extension in Tampa Bay. Godwin and Ridley are a similar tier of wide receiver for fantasy purposes, with managers expecting both to contribute as a WR2 on competitive rosters. 

 

 

Age

In Dynasty formats, age always matters for a roster, and Ridley is closer to 30 than 25. At 28 years old, he will turn 29 during the season; Ridley has not played much football in the past two seasons. However, during his three full seasons in the NFL (2018-20), Ridley consistently ranked as a WR2 while reaching WR5 in 2020. Around the league, the other receivers that are currently 28 years old entering the 2023 season are Mike Williams, Zay Jones, Tyler Boyd, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Josh Reynolds, Richie James, and Kendrick Bourne - many of which are relegated to bench pieces or most likely found on your league's waiver wire. Additionally, in recent memory, we have seen impressive seasons by wide receivers during their age-28 season, specifically in the last two years with Cooper Kupp (2021) and Tyreek Hill (2022). 

Unknown

As previously stated, Ridley has been on the field a little in the last two years - playing just five games since his WR5 finish in 2020. We have yet to see him play a snap for the Jacksonville Jaguars (outside of training camp videos), but it does not appear he has lost a step. Do fantasy owners risk a soon-to-be 29-year-old wide receiver, with just five games in the last two seasons, with a starting spot on the roster?

 

 

Ridley’s debut for the Jaguars was eye-opening, as he dominated in his first game action with Jacksonville, posting the WR6 finish and 24.10 PPR points for fantasy owners. Ridley was targeted 11 times, which was tied for sixth across the NFL, and led the Jaguars offense. 

Ridley has league winning upside and in dynasty formats, contending teams that are in need of wide receivers, should have no issue parting with a future first round pick and a later mid-round draft selection to secure an elite player from a rebuilding team. As a rebuilding team, now is an excellent time to sell extremely high on Ridley and set yourself up for the future by trading the veteran at his peak value.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Kyren Williams

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Dynasty Dilemma: Kyren Williams

One of the biggest surprises of the season so far is the Los Angeles Rams. They went into Lumen Field in Seattle and punched the Seahawks in the mouth. They won in every category, including time of possession, total yards, first downs, and third-down efficiency. They were a well-oiled machine, and the running back room was a big reason why. With only 92 yards on the ground, Cam Akers, Kyren Williams, and the offensive line set the tone and let the young wide receivers be comfortable. In week two, they did not win the game but surprised many people by hanging with one of the Super Bowl favorites, the San Francisco 49ers. 

Every team in the NFL wants to have a balanced attack between the passing game and the rushing game. In week one, the Rams did just that. With 38 passing and 37 rushing attempts (not counting Matthew Stafford's rushes, which would make it 40), the Rams offensive scheme could do anything it wanted, and Seattle could not adjust to stop it. Week 2 was a little more pass-happy, but Williams could have been more productive. Matthew Stafford threw the ball 55 times with just 22 rushing attempts. Among those 22 rushing attempts, the only running back to have a carry was Kyren with 14. Kyren Williams has had the most significant impact based on his production. He also may be the guy to get on the waiver wire or trades in the coming weeks. Here is why:


Production -  

Cam Akers had more rushing attempts in week one with 22, but Kyren Williams was the more productive back. 15 carries for 52 yards and two touchdowns were surprising for many Cam Akers owners in redraft formats. It raised some eyebrows to the dynasty owners who have held Williams in deep bench or taxi formats. Williams's 3.5 yards per attempt was over double Akers's production (1.3 yards per attempt). This number may seem low, but three rushing attempts at 3.5 yards per attempt is a first down. 

In week two, Kyren Williams had all the rushing attempts for the running back room. He ended the game with 14 carries for 52 yards and one touchdown. Williams also had a great game receiving-wise, with six receptions for 48 yards and one touchdown. With a 3.7 yards per attempt in week two against what some people call the most formidable defense he will face this year. Performing this well against a tough defense is what the owners of Kyren Williams wanted to see. 

Snap Percentage - 

Kyren Williams also out-snapped Cam Akers by a significant margin. The official snap counts for the running backs were 53 snaps(65.43%) for Kyren Williams, 28 snaps(34.57%) for Cam Akers, and 0 for Ronnie Rivers. The playing time breakdown was significant in week one because every fantasy manager believed in the offseason that Akers was going to be the RB1 on this team, so to be on the field so for him to be on the field far less was a surprise. 

In week two, Cam Akers was a healthy scratch. The other active running backs for the game were Royce Freeman, who only played special teams, and Ronnie Rivers, who played only a handful of snaps and caught one pass for four yards. Williams has been the most efficient back and is the running back in the Rams backfield. In the first two games of the season, Kyren Williams is up to 129 snaps, 80.12% of all offensive plays. Snap percentage is something to keep an eye on in my eyes. Especially in the coming weeks if Akers stays inactive and McVay keeps up this massive percentage with the backups. With waiver pickups about to be in full swing and two weeks' worth of stats, Williams and a slew of his teammates were the top adds of the week for managers. What should we expect? Should we temper expectations?

 

Fools Gold - 

Some things are set in stone for the first few weeks of the NFL season, like a Minnesota Vikings disappointment or a division rival game having an unexpected outcome, like the Cleveland Browns upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals. Week one of the NFL season is also one that usually has the most surprises. The Los Angeles Rams, as a whole, were one of the biggest. That includes Kyren Williams's snap count and production on the field while barely sniffing the field last year. However, I like his yards per attempt at 3.5 yards and 3.7 in week two. Will this continue, or will Sean McVay get in his head and ruin another productive running back?

After two weeks of performance and production, all signs point upward for Kyren Williams. His stats for fantasy are great, and as I have and will state even more soon, I am worried about his coach getting in his way. He also has not broken a tackle in the first two weeks, so as defenses adjust and put more defenders into the "box" or by the line of scrimmage, can Williams keep up this productivity? 

 

 

In my Dynasty Dilemma in May about Cam Akers, I barely brought up Kyren Williams because I thought he was the running back after camp to be cut. That was a mistake. I did not believe Williams had a significant role on the team then. I put too much stock on the rookie Zach Evans and Ronnie Rivers. His role, although substantial, has yet to be clearly defined. In what I will call classic Sean McVay fashion, he doesn't know what to do with his running back room. 

With the inconsistencies from last year with Akers, injuries to players, and not getting a role in the backfield after returning until late in the year, Williams kept his head down and worked on becoming the lead back in LA. The lead-back role in Los Angeles has been by committee for the past two years. That has yet to be the case through the first two weeks of the 2023 season. Kyren Williams is the lead back now, and it may take an injury or surprising play by one of the rookies to change that.

Whether you are going for the gold this year in Dynasty or trying to rebuild, Kyren Williams is an asset. Some deeper leagues in Dynasty need more luxury to pick up WIlliams through the wavier wire. It may be time to strike while the iron is hot and see if the owner is willing to part ways with him. Use the Dynasty Pros Trade Calculator to see what is deemed a fair trade. If you learn anything from playing fantasy football in this day and age, it's that you know the running back position takes a lot of work to navigate. So try to get yourself as many as you can for as cheap as possible to have options. 

In redraft, many guys were picking up the wide receivers for the LA Rams in Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. These two have had significant games to start the year. While the receivers are always good options, getting a potential running back that could help you in a bye week or solidifying your RB2 role is beneficial. Last week, Kyren Williams was a cheap get on the waiver wire. After week two, we may see significant amounts of blind bids or free agent dollars on him. 

I will try to acquire Williams if you need help at the running back position. If you have Kyren Williams, I would hold. He can be an asset to your team for one of the running back slots, and his price tag might increase shortly. Be patient; we still have 12 to 13 weeks until the fantasy playoffs. If he does become the real deal and a must-start, someone might cave and give you an offer you can't refuse. Hold for a few more weeks and sell when his price is at its highest. We have seen crazier things happen, and in desperate times, people sell top assets to improve their team to make a run. 

He isn't a Todd Gurley type back. He is a complementary back who will see RB1 touches for this year. Sooner than later, he is going to be an afterthought to McVay. Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers got the same hype during their drafts, and the same thing is happening to Williams. Henderson was cut, and Akers is becoming an afterthought, being a healthy scratch and, if rumors are true, on the trade block. Williams will be getting the hype until one of the other rookies comes in and impresses. He then may fall victim to the Sean McVay trap. Kyren Williams is a great play this year, but you can never know the thought process or trust McVay until proven otherwise. Although the future might not be as clear as we would want, the opportunity to shine is there for Kyren Williams.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Rashee Rice

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Dynasty Dilemma: Rashee Rice

 

I'm going to begin by stating that I, Brendon Booth, H A T E the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, I don't say that because I've been a Raiders fan for over 40 years, although I do for that reason, as well. It's simply this: as a fantasy football analyst, I hate the fact that the Chiefs have rostered seven wide receivers and nobody knows what to do with them. I say this as an owner of Kadarius Toney. I say this as an owner of Justyn Ross. I say this as a 30% shareholder of Deneric Prince who was squeezed off of the 53-man roster to make room for KC's 7th WR. And I say this as an NON-owner of Rashee Rice, in spite of the fact that I would like to have him on one or more of my rosters.

Rice was a stud at pass-heavy SMU. He was drafted by the Chiefs in the 2nd round of the 2023 draft and you would think that draft capital would quickly earn him a heavy role in the Chiefs offense. There is just too much competition in that WR room to get a great feel of how he is going to be deployed. If he is an integral piece, earning a high enough target share from Patrick Mahomes to be relevant in fantasy, then he could be a nice waiver wire pick-up for you, if he's available. This is our dynasty dilemma. Let's dig a little deeper on this rookie, though, and see if we can figure something out together.

As I said, Rice holds 2nd round draft capital. While one of the prime indicators of fantasy success for wide receivers is being drafted in the first round, there are plenty of 2nd rounders that hold significant value. Christian Watson, George Pickens, and the Chiefs' own Skyy Moore were all 2nd rounders in 2022. 2021 saw Elijah and Rondale Moore both go early on Day 2. In 2020, the 2nd round WRs included Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Jr., and personal favorite Van Jefferson. While all of these guys vary in their potential offerings, you can see how 2nd rounders can be viable assets.

On the field, Rice presents some true upside. While his 4.51 combine 40-time isn't ideal, Rice offers elite level explosiveness with a 1.49 10-yard split placing him in the 92nd percentile, and a 41-inch vertical jump, good for a 96th percentile spot. In basketball, they call that "jumping out of the building." His 6'1", 204 lb frame makes him big enough to be a contested catch target and a red-zone threat as he plays even bigger than his stature. Rice is more than capable as a route-runner in short and intermediate situations but is even better on deep throws, and he is good at creating yards after the catch. He also shared college targets with fellow SMU teammates, now in the NFL, Danny Gray of the 49ers, and Philadelphia Eagles TE Grant Calcaterra.

Rashee Rice offers the size, skillset, athletic profile, and college pedigree that you want, and the draft capital of at least 6 WRs in the top 48 of dynasty rankings. His current DynastyPros ranking of 53 just screams "SLEEPER."

Did I mention that I hate the Chiefs' WR situation? Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore are poised just under TE Travis Kelce as starting targets for Patrick Mahomes. Justin Watson, Justyn Ross, Richie James, and Rice round out the receiving corps, with Rice listed on the depth chart as the backup Z, or flanker, to Toney. Now, Toney has a pretty sketchy injury history which could lead to the perfect opportunity for Rice to slide into the starting mix, but the Chiefs have stated that Rice, along with Ross will "start out as 'package' players." So IF there's an injury to Toney and Rice graduates to the flanker role, there could be some value there.

Depth chart position isn't the only thing working against Rice. Let's take a second and look at his teammate Skyy Moore and HIS situation as a rookie in Andy Reid's offense. Moore, again, also a 2nd round pick was limited to the point of irrelevance as a rookie. Moore is slightly smaller and a little bit faster than Rice, and is more suited to the Y or slot role, and he earned lower than a 30% target share as a rookie, in 16 games. He had 22 catches for 250 yards, had an average target depth of 7.7 yards, and earned just 5.7% of team air yards. Contrast that with fellow rookie George Pickens who, albeit in a different role, had one-third the drop rate of Moore and almost four times the receptions on three times the targets, an aDOT of 14.7 yards, and 27.4% of team air yards. If the Chiefs believe the best thing for Rice is to slowly acclimate, his only spot in your roster is on the taxi squad.

The final drawback to Rice hasn't anything to do with situation or ability, it's in his attitude. He has been reported as "nonchalant" in his intent and "takes plays off." He also hasn't shown a desire to increase his commitment to detail as a route runner and chooses to "get by" on size and physical abilities rather than technique. Reports are that he ran a very limited route-tree in college and a poor attitude means that he could be in trouble if he is supposed to improve in the NFL. If all Rice wants to do is run downfield and catch jump balls for glory, there is a place for that, but it won't equate to much production.

After investigation, I might be better off, at this point, not owning any shares of Rashee Rice, and you may be, too. That means, however, that his value is at an all-time low. If his usage rate mirrors Skyy Moore's as a rookie, Rice will definitely be worth a stash if you have a taxi squad spot open. His value is that of a handcuff running back or a mid to late 2nd round rookie pick in 2024 or 2025. If you are trading with a Rice owner, don't be afraid to add him to the receiving side in exchange for a 3rd rounder or a Jordan Mason type. If waiting on his potential, which he has plenty of, is good enough for Andy Reid, it should be good enough for us.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Trey Lance

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Dynasty Dilemma: Trey Lance (Updated)

UPDATE: Per Adam Schefter, Lance was traded to the Dallas Cowboys. Schefter’s report was released at 4:22 pm on 8/25/2022, about 3 and a half hours before this article was posted. It is important to note that the trade does not change the following analysis. The only change is the potential for Lance to start if there is an injury to Dak Prescott. You may proceed as outlined.

The year is 2000. A young man walks into a fortune teller’s shop on his town’s main street. Not in the downtown area, but on the edge of town. The man sits down at the crystal ball and the fortune teller lays out the wildest tale. She tells the young man, an expectant father that he will have a son. That son will grow up to be a highly coveted quarterback. That quarterback will earn a starting position for his national champion college team as a sophomore, lead that team to a 16-0 record and another national championship, and throw 28 touchdowns that year without throwing an interception in 287 attempts. The boy would also rush for 1100 yards that season and add 14 more touchdowns. The young man is stunned.

The fortune teller goes on to tell the man that his son will enter the 2021 NFL Draft at the age of 20, and be picked by the San Francisco 49ers with the 3rd overall pick, after trading 2 first round picks and 2 other picks to move up and draft their guy. He will eventually grow into a man standing 6’4″, weighing 225 pounds, and running a 4.5 second 40-yard dash. Now the young father-to-be is bewildered. His son is going to be a superstar!

 

 

6 months earlier, a different expectant father goes into a different fortune teller’s shop. The fortune teller explains that HIS son is going to be 6’1″, run a 4.85 40, have an unheralded college career on a normal 4-year track, and be passed on in HIS draft 261 times, before the 49ers draft him to be a backup, maybe, and he’ll earn the nickname given the last pick, “Mr. Irrelevant.” This young father is also bewildered. He wanted a superstar. Now he’s convinced he’s got a palooka.

 

 

Neither fortune teller would see that 23 years later, the palooka would be announced as the starting QB for the 49ers, and the shine would be off of the superstar. The 49ers would be scrambling to figure out what to do with the product of their huge investment. YOU are also wondering what to do with that huge investment.

 

We have been in a Dynasty League holding pattern with Lance for, going on, 3 seasons. There is no new statistical analysis that can change that. Upside is the only argument to be made in Lance’s favor. It’s still a good one.

None of the events of the last three seasons have changed Lance’s POTENTIAL. He’s still the physical specimen that he was before, as noted above. He still has the same arm strength, the same foot speed and elusiveness, and the same brain that Kyle Shanahan dubbed highly intelligent.

He’s extremely intelligent. He knows how to handle situations. He knows how to carry himself. The guy that I see on tape that I tried to describe that I see such a natural quarterback, such a smart player.

Let’s look at Jordan Love, for an example. He is the same size as Lance, but as slow as Purdy. Love was drafted the year before Lance, and didn’t see the field as a rookie. He played sparingly in his next two seasons and has only seen regular season game action 10 times for the Packers. By every indication, however, he’s ready to start at age 24. He’ll turn 25 mid-season and Lance will be 25 just short of 2 years from now.

Lance has plenty of time to assume his final form. With his draft profile hampered by injury and team situation, he has an opportunity to add on to the improvements he’s made with his technique. He just needs reps. He’ll find them wherever he is because the NFL isn’t going to give up on him, and neither should you.

Buy low, sell high is the Dynasty mantra. This will be the lowest ever point for Lance’s value, until he retires.

 

 

Again, there is very little statistical basis to justify selling Lance. You could point to injury history or throwing interceptions against the Raiders in his first 2023 pre-season game. What it boils down to is that he doesn’t have a job, at the moment. He will be, for the time being, a roster suck. He won’t be startable in your lineup.

 

 

Rostered: depending on your league environment, Lance is a hold. If you have the roster depth to absorb a zero production wait-n’-see, wait it out. At this point, nobody wants him. Do not sell low.

Trades: Throw out offers, again if you can absorb the lack of production. If you can’t handle the roster spot, create a dynastyprosfootball.com Trey Lance alert and stay on top of the player news to scoop him off waivers as soon as he gets another opportunity.

Startup and Redraft: Avoid

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Sam LaPorta

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Dynasty Dilemma: Sam LaPorta

 

And we’re back for another Dynasty Dilemma. Last week, I wrote about 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk (go check it out if you haven’t already!) Today, I will be switching positions to Tight End (TE) and highlighting a rookie who was just drafted in the 2023 NFL Draft. 2023 was a great draft for Tight Ends, starting off with Dalton Kincaid in the First Round. Kincaid is the first TE to be drafted in the first round since Kyle Pitts in 2021. To build off that, there were FIVE TEs drafted in the second round. I plan to talk about the very first one, second TE off the board, Sam LaPorta. LaPorta was drafted by the Detroit Lions with the 34th overall pick from Iowa University.

 

REASON TO BUY

 

Lions New TE1

The Detroit Lions were an ideal landing spot for Sam LaPorta. They’re a high-powered offense who have seen fantasy success for Tight Ends in the past. The Lions were a top 5 offense in the NFL last season with 45 total TDs scored, 4,281 receiving yards, and 2,179 rushing yards (6,460 total yards). Throughout OTAs and training camp, it’s become evident that the Lions want LaPorta to fit right into that TE1 role. “He’s earned the right now to be in that first-team huddle with Jared and that offensive line,” Lions offensive coordinator (OC) Ben Johnson said when asked about LaPorta. He goes on to say that “[LaPorta has proven himself] over the course of the springtime and the work that he’s put in…He’s still learning, and we are putting a lot of pressure on him to pick it up, but I think he’s in a good spot for a first-year tight end.” According to the Athletic, LaPorta is also getting work with the second and third-team offenses to maximize reps. All of this is evidence that the Lions expect LaPorta to start at TE for their season opener against the Kansas City Chiefs. 

 

Hock is Out, LaPorta is In

The Lions TE position dramatically opened up after Lions traded their star TE T.J. Hockenson to a division rival, the Minnesota Vikings. Also on their roster at TE, the Lions have Brock Wright and Shane Zylstra. Zylstra, unfortunately, suffered a serious knee injury during training camp and might miss the next 6 months. While injuries are unlucky and unfortunate, everyone around football knows they’re a part of the game. LaPorta’s only real competition for that TE1 spot is Brock Wright. Wright is mainly used as a blocking TE in the Lions offensive scheme as he only had 24 targets over 17 games played during the 2022 season. Now, what does this mean for fantasy owners if LaPorta does end up becoming their TE1? In 2020, TJ Hockenson finished as a top 5 TE with 175.3 total points (PPR) and 11 points per game (ppg). During that season, he had 6 TDs, 723 receiving yards, and 67 receptions (101 targets). During the 2021 season, Hock only played 12 games due to injury but still finished as a Top 5 TE in fantasy ppg. He averaged 12.1 fantasy ppg (PPR) with 61 receptions, 583 yards, and 4 TDs. Previous season stats tell us that Sam LaPorta is on a high scoring offense that likes to target TE and can support a Fantasy TE1. 

 

Draft Capital 

The Detroit Lions spent an early 2nd round pick on Sam LaPorta and it makes sense why. LaPorta went to Iowa University and was able to start two games his freshman year. During his sophomore year at Iowa, he started 5/8 games where he had 27 receptions, 271 yards, and 1 TD. He became a big part of the Iowa offense as a junior where he became a full-time starter. He put up over 600 yards his junior AND senior year and holds Iowa’s record for first among TEs in receptions and second in total yards. LaPorta has shown reliable hands and is great at securing the football. His strong pass catching abilities are what made him really stand out at Iowa as he’s able to use his size to make tough, contested catches while being able to hold onto the football. Additionally Iowa, under Kirk Ferentz, is known for producing great TEs that perform at a very high level in the NFL. Two Iowa alumni include George Kittle and T.J. Hockenson. Both Kittle and Hock have put up multiple TE1 seasons in the NFL and have been a huge part of their respective offenses. Kittle is well known for his yards after catch (YAC) which LaPorta has shown a similar knack for at Iowa. It won’t be long before LaPorta succeeds at the pro level. 

 

 

REASON TO SELL

 

Rookie TE

Obviously, Sam LaPorta is unproven. He’s a rookie! He’s never played an NFL snap and we have no idea how he will actually perform under the big lights. Historically, rookie TE haven’t done so well their first year. A general consensus around the league is that it takes about 3 years for a Tight End to fully develop in the National Football League. LaPorta also doesn’t have elite speed. He ran a 4.59 second 40 yard dash at the Combine which wasn’t great and not bad either. Another large aspect of being an NFL TE is being able to block. LaPorta was able to improve his blocking skills throughout his career at Iowa but wouldn’t be considered one of his strengths. We need to hope he can work on these skills to perform at the next level.

 

Crowded Offense

The Lions also spent significant draft capital on another skill position in the 2023 draft when they drafted RB Jahmyr Gibbs in the First Round. Dan Campbell has mentioned multiple times that he expects Gibbs to be a large part of their offense on the ground and in the passing game. Amon-Ra St. Brown is another superstar on this offense and a favorite target of Jared Goff. The Lions also expect to have Jameson Williams after his suspension ends before Week 7. Both young WR could hurt LaPorta’s production in the passing game. We must hope the Lions will once again be that high powered offense from last season where Jared Goff can distribute the ball to multiple targets and sustain high fantasy production. 

 

Verdict

Sam LaPorta is flying under the radar right now and I am imploring you all to take advantage. He is a Strong Buy at his current ADP.  LaPorta has ALL the skills to be a great TE in the NFL and will boast multiple TE1 seasons allowing for a very strong ROI. It’s important for Dynasty players to take advantage now and buy low this summer before he reaches the national stage this upcoming season. The Lions are a great landing spot for Sam LaPorta and training camp reports reveal their dedication to his development. His market value is on the rise, and everyone should cash in before it’s too late.

 

BUY

Dynasty Dilemma: Russell Wilson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Russell Wilson

by Brendon Booth

 

Russell Wilson has been an absolute mainstay in fantasy football leagues for the last 10 years. He was the Seattle Seahawks starting quarterback from day one of his rookie season after being drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft out of Wisconsin, by way of North Carolina State. A multi-sport athlete, Wilson was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in 2007 but elected to play both sports at NC St. In 2010, the Colorado Rockies drafted him again and he played in their minor league system for two years. He arrived in Seattle with previous experience in professional, as well as “big time” sports. 

At 5’11” and just over 210 pounds, Wilson is not the prototypical NFL QB in terms of stature, but Seattle seemed to have made a great choice as “DangeRuss” helped lead the Seahawks to back-to-back Super Bowls in 2013 and 2014. He even earned himself a ring in 2013. Over the course of his career, Wilson earned himself a reputation as a winner and a durable QB. From 2012 to 2020 he had only winning seasons, and he never missed a game. That all changed in 2021. Wilson missed 3 games due to injury and the Seahawks finished with a record of 6-8 in the games he played. He followed up 2021 with the worst statistical season of his career in 2022 for the Denver Broncos, and finished with a record of 4-11 in the games he played, again missing time with injury.

What we have in Russell Wilson is a 9 time Pro-Bowler with a Super Bowl ring, the 5th most TD passes among active QBs, and the 5th highest career QB rating ever, but he’s entering the season in which he will turn 35 years old. So, what do we do with Russell Wilson?

 

REASON TO BUY

People don’t just forget how to play football, and Wilson is bringing 11 seasons of knowledge to the Broncos and new head coach Sean Payton. Wilson also has 8 Top 10 fantasy finishes in his career. His worst two finishes, each in the last two years, were both QB16. He also threw for his lowest TD total of any year of his career in 2022. Enter Payton. Some people see Sean Payton as a “fixer.” He has an established system with proven success earned in New Orleans including three NFC Championship game appearances and a Super Bowl win. Payton knows what he’s doing. I’ll mention, too, that the Super Bowl was won with another QB who was considered “undersized”, in Drew Brees. Payton spent the offseason building around Russ. He brought in offensive linemen and a new running back in free agency, and targeted a speedy wide receiver in the draft. 

With very little positive regression back toward his normal performance levels, Wilson could easily see an improvement on his ranking.

 

 

 

REASON TO SELL

Sometimes when the end comes, it comes faster than we realize. They call that “falling off the cliff” when it comes to performance. Russ never missed a game in 9 years. The last two seasons, he’s missed time due to injury. Age is as big a factor as the team around him. Yes, the Broncos as a whole were terrible last season, but Wilson’s skill level couldn’t elevate the team, as it may have done in previous seasons. If we assess who knows Wilson better than anybody, we’d probably find that to be Pete Carroll, and he knew it was time to move on. Quarterback values tend to decline beginning at age 32. That is exactly when Wilson’s decline began. There tends to be an uptick from age 35 to age 36 but that is attributed more to the overall ability of QBs that actually make it to their age 36 season. Russ doesn’t appear to be in that tier of player and what that means for him is that his value will hover at about half of what it was in his prime over the next two seasons. Wilson is not Drew Brees and he never was. Brees sustained success into his 40’s and was in his own prime at the age Wilson is now. Payton is another factor. He inherited Wilson. If the Broncos ship doesn’t recover, Payton likely won’t hesitate to bring in his own guy that he believes can do it. Do we want to be the owners to watch all of that play out?

 

 

VERDICT

Wilson is currently ranked as DynastyPros QB21 in Superflex leagues, Wilson SHOULD outperform his ADP, but if he’s your QB2, now is the time to make a move. Wilson is an advantageous trade piece with similar value in our trade calculator to Jordan Love, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, and Sam Howell. Shoot offers to owners of all of those QBs straight-up if you’re in a rebuild mode. If you’re contending, Russ and a 2024 2nd for Daniel Jones comes out pretty even. Just remember, my trade proposals are starting points. It may take more or less from either side to finesse the situation, but the bottom line is we’re in offload mode.

Startups, Best Ball, Redrafts are all the same, fade and avoid.

 

SELL