Dolphins

Dynasty Buy Lows & Sell Highs

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Dynasty Buy Low Sell High

by Bob Miller

Aug. 8, 2021

Back in April, before the NFL Draft, I put out a “Buy Low Sell High” article. Looking back I hope you took my advice, because I recommended you buying low on players like Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Goedert, and Lamar Jackson. Some players I said to sell high were James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Chris Carson. You can see that article here: https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-buy-lows-sell-highs/

I’m back now to share with you who is on my “Buy Low Sell High” list now.

Tua Tagovailoa

So many fantasy football players are already calling Tua a bust. He was coming off a brutal injury, a shortened off-season, and an absolutely terrible receiving corp. That’s what Tua Tagovailoa dealt with last season. Now heading into year two, Tua now has a completely revamped receiving corps that fits his skillset perfectly, and he's had the full off-season to prepare as the starter. I can see Tua Tagovailoa being that late round QB to break out this season, just like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert did previously. He is one of my favorite buy low candidates.

Joe Burrow

I’d personally like to thank Justin Herbert for taking up all the rookie spotlight last year. That allows me to swoop in and get Burrow as a fantastic value. We all know that Burrow has tremendous talent, a great receiving back in Joe Mixon, and now three incredible WRs after drafting Ja’Marr Chase. Let’s add a terrible defense to the mix. All that means fantasy goodness. I don’t care if it’s garbage time or not, Burrow is going to be playing from behind a lot this season. That could very well put into the QB1 conversation.

TJ Hockenson

I’m not saying you will get Hockenson cheap, but this may very well be the lowest price you’ll be able to buy him moving forward. He and Jared Goff have worked together a lot this offseason, and it has been showing in camp. Multiple reports say that Hockenson is clearly the #1 target in the passing game. You can’t argue that when your starting WRs are Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams. Detroit is another terrible team that will be playing from behind a lot, which is good news for Hockenson owners. After this season I believe Hockenson will be joining the “Elite TE” Tier with Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

JK Dobbins

Dobbins showed everyone last season that he was arguably the best RB in the 2020 NFL Draft. Now he's poised to take a big step forward in his second season. While we can expect big things from Dobbins and this Ravens rushing attack, fantasy owners are still worried about Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards taking work from Dobbins. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry last season, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens have been throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increases his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. I have him projected for 1132 rushing yds, 11 TDs while adding 29 rec for 289 yds, and 1 rec TD. That puts him firmly in the RB1 category. 

DJ Chark

Remember this guy? DJ Chark was a hot name this time last year. In 2019 Chark averaged 15.67 PPR points per game. That was good for 14th amongst wide receivers. Unfortunately last season Jacksonville just stunk it up. Poor play calling and quarterback play crippled DJ Chark’s ceiling. Enter Trevor Lawrence. This big-armed quarterback isn’t afraid to sling the ball. Marvin Jones will get attention lining up on the other side of the field, and Laviska Shenault is a mismatch lining up in the slot. All of this bodes well for Chark, who should see plenty of single coverage. Currently being drafted/viewed as a WR3/WR4, Chark is a perfect buy low candidate that should return solid WR2 numbers.

 

Russell Wilson

Wilson is one of the first players that come to mind when I’m thinking “Sell”. He is an incredible fantasy QB throughout the first half of the season, but he really cools off for the 2nd half of the season. This has been the case over the last couple of seasons, and that really lets you down for your fantasy playoffs. In 2020 Wilson averaged 25.75 fantasy points through week 8. He averaged 17.08 points per game from Week 9 on. In 2019 he averaged 24.94 fantasy points per game through Week 9. After that.. 13.01 points per game moving forward. You can sell him now or use him until around Week 7 to trade him for a great return.

George Kittle

I’m not saying get rid of Kittle, but I would certainly entertain offers for him. He is an absolute beast when on the field. I don’t have to give you stats. Kittle is a fantasy stud, and we all know it. So why is he on this list? Because he plays pretty rough, and I have some durability concerns when it comes to him. Plus I love selling players at their highest value and getting good players and good picks in return. I would target the Darren Waller owner in your league and see if you can get Waller in addition to another solid player, or a 1st or 2nd round rookie pick.

Darrell Henderson

Sell, sell, sell, unless you handcuffed him to Cam Akers. If not, you’re playing with house money. You already have your RBs and Henderson was a late round or waiver wire pickup. Go target the RB needy owners in your league and make out like a bandit. I’ve seen Henderson go for a 1st round rookie pick in many leagues already. If you can make that deal, do it. If not, bundle him with someone to upgrade a position. My favorite is pairing him up with a mid tier Tight End to upgrade to Darren Waller or possibly even Travis Kelce.

Aaron Jones

Think about how worried you Aaron Jones owners were with the thought of Aaron Rodgers not returning to the Green Bay Packers. Those owners dodged a bullet this season, so let’s not go through that again. Rodgers’ new contract grants him an “out” after this season if he chooses. Sure, Aaron Jones put up great numbers last season averaging 18.49 PPR points per game, but if ARod leaves after this season, Jones’ fantasy stock will plummet. My recommendation is to cash out while you’re ahead. If you’re not getting what you want right now, don’t worry. Just wait a couple of games into the season. Everyone needs RBs in fantasy. When Jones puts up some serious fantasy points, take advantage at that point and cash in. 

Diontae Johnson

Johnson is another great sell high candidate. He averaged 15.09 PPR points last season as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target. Big Ben’s arm is shot, and this may very well be his last season. With that uncertainty looming in Pittsburgh makes me want to sell Johnson at what could be his highest value. With the emergence of Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Shuster getting his targets, it’s hard to predict what kind of numbers Johnson will put up this season. Don’t forget that the Steelers want to focus a lot more on the running game after selecting Najee Harris in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft. Find the Steelers fans in your league, because there is always Steelers fans in every league, and target another solid WR on their team like Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy, or DeVonta Smith.

Bob Miller’s 2021 NFL Mock Draft

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by Bob Miller

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence (QB - Clemson)

Do I really need to give a reason? He's the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Done.

2. NY Jets - Zach Wilson (QB - BYU)

Wilson's athletic ability, accuracy from the pocket and on the run, and leadership makes him a no brainer here for the Jets.

3. San Francisco 49ers - Justin Fields (QB - Ohio State)

The 49ers play Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray twice a year. They know what kind of a problem that type of quarterback is to defend. San Francisco decides that they need one of those QBs as well.

4. Denver Broncos - Trey Lance (QB - North Dakota State) Trade w/ Atlanta

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a trade! Atlanta trades the 4th pick to the Denver Broncos. After Denver failed to trade for Deshaun Watson, they decide that they won't fail again. They move up to get the their man, a mobile quarterback with a big arm for those cold games. Trey Lance fits that perfectly. Teddy Bridgewater is not their future, Trey Lance is.

5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja’Marr Chase (WR - LSU)

Lots of mock drafts have Oregon LT Penei Sewell going here to the Bengals. Not mine. Ja'Marr Chase is the undisputed #1 wide receiver in this draft. Tackle is deeper is this draft than the past few years. They'll get one in the 2nd or 3rd. Cincinnati just can't pass on the opportunity to reunite Joe Burrow and his favorite WR. 

6. Miami Dolphins - Kyle Pitts (TE - Florida)

The Dolphins are thrilled to get Kyle Pitts. This once in a generation TE talent is just what they need to ensure that Tua Tagovailoa has every opportunity to succeed.

7. New England Patriots - Mac Jones (QB - Alabama) Trade w/ Detroit

We have our 2nd trade of the day! Detroit has been targeting WR Jaylen Waddle here for quite some time, but New England makes an offer that Detroit can't refuse. The Patriots get their guy! Jones needs the right situation to be successful in the NFL. What better situation to be in than being coached by Bill Belichick.

8. Carolina Panthers - Penei Sewell (LT - Oregon)

Sewell has dropped far enough. Carolina is in desperate need of a LT. Sewell starts day one and is the staple of their offensive line for the next decade.

9. Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Surtain II (CB - Alabama)

Defense is the priority for Atlanta. They traded back from pick #4 knowing that they were going to get one of the best corners available. They just happen to land the absolute best corner in this year's draft.

10. Dallas Cowboys - Jaycee Horn (CB - South Carolina)

Dallas fans are left disappointed after Patrick Surtain II gets sniped the pick before them. With cornerback being a major priority they take the best corner available. Horn is fast, physical, and will step in and start day one.

11. NY Giants - Jaelan Phillips (EDGE - Miami)

Phillips is arguably the most talented edge rusher in this class. He has had some injuries but is absolutely worth taking at pick #11. He will fill the void needed since Jason Pierre-Paul left years ago.

12. Philadelphia Eagles - Devonta Smith (WR - Alabama)

A dream come true for Philadelphia Eagles fans. They are in dire need for a WR, so what better than the unstoppable Heisman Trophy Winner. He is a bit undersized, but he's played that way his entire career. Congrats to Jaylen Hurts on getting a shiny new toy.

13. LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater (LT - Northwestern)

Los Angeles failed to land LT Orlando Brown Jr. from the Ravens. They didn't want to give what Baltimore was asking, because they knew they could land their franchise LT in this draft. Slater will be a very good left tackle in the NFL protecting Justin Herbert's blind side for years to come.

14. Minnesota Vikings - Kwity Paye (EDGE - Michigan)

Minnesota doesn’t have a second-round pick this year, so trading back is definitely a possibility. Adding a pass-rusher with this type of agility and strength opposite of Danielle Hunter may be just too hard to pass up.

15. Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle (WR - Alabama)

How about that. Detroit trades back with the hopes that Waddle would still be available, and he is. Waddle is a weapon that Detroit will use in many different ways. With the loss of Kenny Golladay via free agency, Waddle will targeted early and often.

16. Arizona Cardinals - Caleb Farley (CB - Virginia Tech)

With a glaring hole in the secondary left by Patrick Peterson, Arizona has to walk out of the first two rounds with a CB. Farley would have been a top-10 pick, but has fallen a bit due to the back injury concerns. Arizona believes that the reward outweighs the risk here.

17. Las Vegas Raiders - Micah Parsons (LB - Penn State)

This just makes too much sense. The Raiders need major help at linebacker, and Parsons is the best LB in this draft. Character issues prevents Parsons from being taken in the top 10, but that's not a concern for GM Mike Mayock. Jon Gruden may hurt himself running to the phone to call in this pick.

18. Miami Dolphins - Azeez Ojulari (EDGE - Georgia)

Azeez Ojulari is an edge defender with incredible speed and explosiveness. His upside is just to good for Miami to pass up.

19.Washington - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB - Notre Dame)

Washington is very thin at LB. JOK is an extremely fast linebacker that can line up against slot receivers and deliver a big pop to outside runs. This combined with his leadership makes this a big get for the Football Team.

20. Chicago Bears - Christian Darrisaw (LT - Virginia Tech)

Chicago considers going with WR Rashod Bateman here, but LT is a bigger need for the Bears. Darrisaw is a top tier OT, and is too good of a value here to pass up. Chicago can grab a WR in the next couple of rounds.

21. Indianapolis Colts - Alijah Vera-Tucker (OT – USC)

Left Tackle is by far the biggest need for the Colts, and Vera-Tucker is a versatile, athletic, and strong lineman that can line up anywhere. That won't matter as the Colts will plug him in at LT immediately.

22. Tennessee Titans - Rashod Bateman (WR - Minnesota)

The Titans "had" 2 major needs: Pass rush and wide receiver. They addressed the pass rushing need via free agency by signing Bud Dupree and Denico Autry. Now they need to replace the hole at WR with Corey Davis leaving for New York. They get a solid replacement in Rashod Bateman.

23. NY Jets - Greg Newsome (CB- Northwestern)

Cornerback is a major weakness for the Jets. Head Coach Robert Saleh is going to be thrilled that he lands a talent such as Newsome here.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Gregory Rousseau (EDGE - Miami)

Pittsburgh has to replace EDGE with the loss of Bud Dupree. Rousseau is an absolute freak. He is 6'6/260 and has incredible reach. He has tremendous length for the position, and he's still building out his frame. He is still a little raw, but his upside is amazing.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig (S - TCU)

The best safety in this draft falls to the team that needs him the most. Jacksonville can use quite a bit of help on defense, and they get it here. Moehrig has great acceleration and closes on the ball quickly. He's a playmaker that Jacksonville desperately needs.

26. Cleveland Browns - Zaven Collins (LB - Tulsa)

Collins is a big, physical, and mobile linebacker that covers the middle of the field. He is fantastic against the run, which Cleveland will need to help them get over the hump against teams like Baltimore. He fills a need for Cleveland.

27. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Tryon (EDGE - Washington)

Baltimore has 3 holes to fill: EDGE, OT, and WR. Joe Tryon has elite upside as a pass rusher and will make an immediate impact for the Ravens. He opted out of the 2020 season, but his 2019 tape is fantastic. He has the potential to produce double digit sacks his rookie year in that Baltimore defense.

28. New Orleans Saints - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB - Florida State)

We all know about the Saints' salary cap situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans trade back here, but their secondary is the top priority. They are in bad shape behind Marshon Lattimore, so drafting Samuel here makes all the sense in the world.

29. Green Bay Packers - Terrace Marshall (WR - LSU)

It's no secret that Green Bay needs help at WR behind Davante Adams. Marshall has size, speed, and great hands. He is a big target that is a mismatch for opposing corners. He will be a welcomed addition to the Packers offense.

30. Buffalo Bills - Joseph Ossai (EDGE - Texas)

I almost went with Najee Harris here, but EDGE is a bigger need for this team. They can get a RB in the next rounds. Ossai has a high motor and  high upside. He has great size and a very strong lower body. He is built for the NFL, and should be a solid EDGE defender that the Bills need.

31. Baltimore Ravens - Teven Jenkins (OT - Oklahoma State)

The Ravens were really hoping that Rashod Bateman or Terrace Marshall would fall to them here, but unfortunately that doesn't happen.  Rumor is the Ravens are shopping this pick. I'm 50/50 on the them trading back, because they already have 9 picks. With that being said they draft Teven Jenkins, a big, nasty RT with incredible size and strength. He's an elite pass protector and a fantastic run blocker. He fits right in where Orlando Brown left off.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jayson Oweh (EDGE - Penn State)

Jason Pierre-Paul isn't getting any younger, and Oweh will be a great replacement when the time comes. He has a ton of talent but has a bit to learn. He lands in the perfect situation in Tampa. He can be a situational player for now and learn from two great pass rushers in JPP and Shaq Barrett.

 

I want to give a special thanks to @McManusDesigns, @SwapKingdom, @SchapDesign, @Golden.GRFX, @SnaggyGFX, and @DesignedbyFranco for the awesome jersey swaps!

You can follow me on twitter at @BaltimoreBobFF

 

 

AFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We begin our journey through the AFC with the AFC East. This is a very intriguing division for both real life and for fantasy football. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase’s mannerisms at his introduction press conference from a couple years ago still haunt me; this isn’t the reason why the Jets are a FADE. The reason is because he is the coach. Big Weirdo. Bad Coach. That press conference...I just can’t even...

QB Sam Darnold: QB2, priory FA for injury or matchup dependent bye week replacement, certainly has upside but it is a capped for the incompetence of the HC. He is a franchise QB to build around which I’m confident Joe Douglas will do. Dynasty buy!!

RB Le’Veon Bell: RB2, 14-15% auction, round 4, he’s not the Bell that we feel in love with in Pittsburgh but talent and high volume is rare, intriguing but with caution. Game scripts aren’t likely to be in Bell’s favor. Also the inconvenient truth is in town, the eternal Frank Gore.

WR Jamison Crowder: “Ladder Pick” WR3 (if robust RB with elite TE, ideal WR4, 4-5% auction, round 10, he will be a target monster on a team that is likely to be often playing from behind.

Crowder is one of my most drafted players so far this year. Jets WR1 that will get volume with (likely) game script help that is being drafted in the late rounds? YES PLEASE!

WR Breshad Perriman: WR5-6, 1-2% auction, round 14, as the end of your bench WR, Perriman’s late season breakout last year landed him a prime role in this offense. Plenty of upside, not much to lose at cost.

WR Denzel Mims: priority FA, this steal in the 2020 NFL draft could make a great pair with Darnold. He got banged up early in training camp...we apparently just can’t have nice things in 2020. Keep him on your radar!

TE Chris Herndon: TE2 with TE1 upside, $1, round 13. Can I call Chris Herndon the DeVante Parker of TEs? So much upside, so much promise, but little to show for outside of inconsistent flashes of greatness. I’m afraid we will forever say “this is the year” with him as with Parker.

Parker, of course finally broke out last year, same could happen with Herndon! We need him on field though! TE is very deep, so other options remain but certainly juicy upside. Not much to risk if he is your TE2 in a deep league. Could be delicious trade bait!

New England Patriots

The new look Patriots are a NEUTRAL offensive core, with looks of player worth targeting, none of them are worth reaching for. An intriguing offense year in and year out, that remains, but it isn’t business as usual this season. The GOAT is now in Tampa and in comes a former MVP, because of course.

QB Tom Br... Jarrett Sti...Cam Newton: Low-QB1, 3% auction, round 12, Cam could be an absolute steal at his ADP. This feels a little bit like Lamar Jackson last year, hopefully Cam is actually healthy now. Plenty of upside, going late…

The NFL is more fun with Cam on the field. Inherent rushing upside could be exponential with some uncertainty in the RB group!

RB James White: RB3 6-7% auction, round 7-8, this zeroRB legend has more upside for PPR, and is seriously an ideal weapon for Cam. With concerns regarding Sony Michel and Lamar Miller, White could become a lot more than just a PPR floor play.

RB Damien Harris: RB4 (robust WR with elite TE), ideal RB5, 2-3% auction, round 12, opportunity in a good offense is a key to great fantasy late round value, you’ll have nothing to lose and everything to gain with Harris. Keep an eye out for Rex Burkehead if any RBs are to miss extended time.

WR Julian Edelman: Low-WR3 (robust RB), ideal WR4, 7-8% auction, round 8, Edelman is another ideal target for Cam. Edelman can help Cam’s passing efficiency. I’m going to target Edelman aggressively. PPR target.

WR N’Keal Harry: WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14, Harry disappointed as a rookie primarily due to struggling with injuries. He has nowhere to go but up! Could be a steal in the late rounds!

TEs Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene are interesting dynasty prospects. Would it be something if the Patriots trade for disgruntled Cleveland TE David Njoku mid-season…would love to see it!

Miami Dolphins

The ADP of the offensive core is a clear representation of why this offense is a FADE, BUT the Dolphins have interesting upside as they look to build off of the semi-surprising success they showed last season.

QBs - Ryan Fitzpatrick/Tua Tagovailoa - Miami landed Tua without the full blown “tank”, he is an incredibly intriguing prospect to me. He is the QB they will build around. *Russell Wilson vibes*

Fitzpatrick is still the lovable bearded gun-slinger, but undraftable in standard roster 12 team leagues. dId YoU kNoW hE wEnT tO hArVaRd?! *Yawn*

RBs Jordan Howard: Low-RB3, ideal RB4, 5-6%, round 10, he is Rodney Dangerfield, he gets no respect despite consistently producing 1000 yard rushing seasons. Power back who is able to catch, under-utilized in that regard.

RB Matt Breida: RB4, 4-5%, round 10-11, Brieda has the speed and pass catching upside but is a little frustrating to roster with injury concerns. Good player with good opportunity. Not going to reach for him, looking for value!

Howard and Breida compliment each other well and should work well together in the offense. Hard to predict week to week usage but I am targeting them as a value in drafts.

WR DeVante Parker: WR3, 6-7% auction, round 7, the Parker breakout *finally* happened and it was indeed glorious to see him ball out. I’ve been down the road of hoping for upside too many times so I will only be drafting him at a value this year.

WR Preston Williams: WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14, really exciting rookie season ended abruptly from injury breaking the hearts of the fantasy world. I’d expect a slow start but certainly targeting him as my end of bench WR!

TE Mike Gesicki: “Ladder Pick” Low-TE1, 2-3% auction, round 12, Gesicki was an athletic standout at the combine 2 years ago, the fruit of his athleticism translated on the field last year.

The pass catching TE who is practically a WR has lots of opportunity in an offense that will likely feature have favorable matchups and game scripts. I’m a Pavlovian dog and Gesicki is the bell!

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are known for their passionate fans, but fortunately for the Bills Mafia, the Bills are on the rise! This revamped offensive core is given the NEUTRAL label from me. I’m targeting, but not reaching for, this improved group!

QB Josh Allen: Low-QB1, 3% auction, round 10, massive arm and rushing upside makes him a very intriguing player. New weapon, Stefon Diggs should contribute to his passing efficiency increasing. Big upside!

RBs Devin Singletary: (low-RB2, ideal RB3, 11-12% auction, round 6) and Zack Moss (RB4, 4% auction, round 9) are a nice hound duo is an offense that is trending up. Good defensive play is typical so there should be plenty of opportunity for touches.

I see Singletary as more of the volume play, with Moss getting the pass catching and potentially the goal line role. Upside can be capped by Allen rushing ability. Both are very talented, it will be very interesting to see how this situation plays out.

WR Stefon Diggs: Low-WR2 (robust RB with elite TE), high WR3, 9-10% auction, round 7, Diggs finds a new home in Buffalo. I think Diggs is a tremendous addition to this offense, he could be an amazing value! Bills paid a big price for him as they build around their franchise QB.

WR John Brown: “Ladder Pick” WR5, 3-4% auction, round 12, the Diggs-Brown duo is an underrated one! Diggs will attract the tougher defensive matchup which will help make life easier on John Brown. Everything to gain and nothing with a player at his value! Perfect sleeper!

WR Cole Beasley: priority FA, PPR target, in the mood of Julian Edelman, this scrappy WR is incredibly underrated and often forgotten about. He should be rostered in all leagues if Diggs or Brown were to miss time!

TE Dawson Knox: Low-TE2, priority FA, TE is so deep this year that he undraftable in standard rule 12 team leagues. This breakout candidate could benefit from Stefon Diggs presence the most! Add him to your watch list!

Sleeper Files: Preston Williams

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Sleeper Files: Preston Williams

By Tommy Harvey

The Miami Dolphins surprised a lot of people last season when they were not the worst team in the NFL.  Expected to “Tank for Tua”, the Dolphins went 5-11 and showed flashes of decency at times.  They were still able to snag prized QB Tua Tagovailoa with their 1st round pick.  

One of the bright spots was WR Preston Williams.  Williams went undrafted out of Colorado State, after foregoing his senior season.  The talented WR went on to catch 32 passes for 428 yards and 3 TDs before tearing an ACL in Week 9 against the Ravens.  Teaming with fellow WR DeVante Parker, Williams formed a formidable pairing through the first 8 games of the season.  

Early reports out of Dolphins camp are saying Preston Williams is stepping right back in where he left off.  If you don’t remember, Williams was arguably the Dolphins top WR before going down for the season.  In the 8 games played together, Williams out-targeted Parker 60-52.  It wasn’t until after Williams was injured that Parker really exploded towards his career season.  While I don’t see Williams surpassing Parker now that the ladder has established himself within the offense, I do think he is right there with him.  If Parker is 1A, then Williams is 1B.  

Miami has improved their team going into HC Brian Flores’ 2nd season, and they should be competitive in the now winnable AFC East.  Newcomers Byron Jones, Shaq Lawson, and Kyle Van Noy will step in to help out the defense, while Jordan Howard and Matt Breida are upgrades at the RB position.  

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is serving as the placeholder and mentor for rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa, but he is more than capable of being a serviceable and winning QB.  Fitz has shown the ability of putting up big numbers within this offense, putting up four 300 yard+ games last season.  Combining Parker with TE Mike Gesicki and a healthy Preston Williams will allow for some big offensive games.

2020 Prediction and Fantasy Outlook:

117 targets, 66 receptions, 910 yards, 8 TDs

Preston Williams is a massive target for Ryan Fitzpatrick...and eventually Tua Tagovailoa.  At 6’5” 218lbs, he is an incredible downfield threat and redzone target.  If he can stay healthy, he should easily surpass 100 targets.  Currently being drafted as the WR53, Williams should be a top-30 WR in 2020.

Sleeper Files: Matt Breida

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Sleeper Files: Matt Breida

by Tommy Harvey

Do you remember when Matt Breida was a thing in regards to fantasy football? After
Jerick McKinnon was injured in 2018, Breida became the go-to guy for the San
Francisco 49ers. In his second full season, he became a force with 814 rushing yards
and 5.3 yards per carry. Breida also proved to be competent as a receiver out of the
backfield with 27 receptions. He overtook Alfred Morris for the starting job and was
seemingly a fantasy gem heading into 2019.

In 2019, the 49ers signed free agent RB Tevin Coleman to work alongside Breida. With
McKinnon still struggling to return from a torn ACL, Coleman and Breida were supposed
to work similarly to how Coleman and Devonta Freeman worked in Atlanta. Breida
showed tremendous speed on an 83-yard TD run against Cleveland, as he reached an
unreal 22.3 MPH (the fastest in the NFL in 2018 according to NFL NextGen Stats).
However, he sustained an ankle injury around the midway point of the season.
As Raheem Mostert emerged as the top RB in San Francisco, Breida became less and
less of an option. After he came back from injury, he suffered a case of fumble-itis and
lost more and more carries. As the postseason neared, his role completely diminished.
Looking for a fresh start and another opportunity, Matt Breida was traded to the Miami
Dolphins for a 5th round pick this offseason. Looking for a homerun hitter with breakaway speed and
dynamic playmaking ability, the Dolphins are hoping Breida can return to his 2018 form.
Pairing with fellow free agent RB signing Jordan Howard, Breida can once again
become a relevant fantasy football player.

2020 Prediction and Fantasy Outlook:

120 carries 612 rushing yards 5.1 yards per carry 4 rushing TDs
38 receptions 342 yards receiving 2 receiving TDs

In 12 team leagues, I’ve been seeing Matt Breida going in the mid to late 8th round at
around RB40. I would seriously start thinking about taking him more in the early to mid
7th round as the overall RB29-30 (around the same ADP as New England RB Sony
Michel and Washington RB Derrius Guice). If healthy, Matt Breida would be a solid
RB3 or FLEX option.

You can follow me @DynastyProsTom