DJ Chark

Dynasty Darlings: Part 2

by

More Dynasty Darlings: Part 2

by Tim Lazenby

 

Dynasty start ups rage on in this part of the season.  While redraft leagues won’t be going full speed until at least July or August, dynasty never sleeps.  And although some leagues are waiting until the real life NFL draft, many are commencing before finding out where the newest batch of rookies will land in the National Football league.  Every year, the consensus on draft value has an ebb and flow and this season is no different.  A draft isn’t usually lost in the first or second round; rather, it’s lost when late values are not grabbed.  Last time, we spoke about Daniel Jones, Kenneth Gainwell, Christian Kirk and Cole Kmet.  Continuing on in our discussion of ADP values, here is one more hidden gem at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end.

 

Quarterback - Davis Mills, Houston Texans

Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Texans have been rough for a while.  Although they have a handful of difference makers, the team is lackluster when compared to the rest of the division, let alone the league.  One of the bright spots for the Texans is quarterback Deshaun Watson.  An unworldly talent, despite playing for a poor team, off field issues and contract disputes left an elite talent off the field for all of last season.

 

While Watson is in many ways irreplaceable, Houston had to continue on in the meantime last year.  In 2021, they tried to utilize Tyrod Taylor as their answer under center.  He came out swinging his first game at starter, with a smash win against the lowly Jags followed by a decently close outing against the Browns, but an injury derailed his season at that time.  With no one else to turn to, then coach David Culley was forced to look to third round rookie Davis Mills out of Stanford

 

Although his team record was quite lackluster, Mills outperformed virtually everyone’s expectations.  While it’s true that he lacks the rushing upside, similarly to fellow rookie Mac Jones, his work as a pocket passer was quite underrated.  Playing for the weak Texans squad, he still finished with a higher completion percentage than Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Josh Allen, all the while doing it with exponentially less weapons.  And even though it needs work, in his last eight games, he only threw three picks.  Houston will certainly move on from Watson, Making Mills extremely appealing.  And considering he is going around Sam Darnold and Taysom Hill range in drafts, there is no reason to not take a flier on Davis Mills in 2022.

 

Running Back - Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks

For the most part Rashaad Penny has been one of the biggest disappointments in recent years in football.  When you talk about the criteria for a bonafide perfect dynasty fantasy football profile, Rashaad Penny ticked virtually every box.  Seattle invested a first round pick; Penny went to a system that emphasized the rushing game; and the competition was an often injured back with no team investment.  There was seemingly no reason to suggest that Penny would not only thrive; but also have the shot to run the league at the position.

 

While he hasn’t looked nearly as explosive as he did in college, save the end of this past season, the injuries have really taken the biggest toll on his dynasty value.  While in college, he only missed a handful of games, in the NFL, Penny has been one of the most injury plagued players, playing only 37 games in four professional seasons.

 

So if he’s always injured, hasn’t been the caliber he was in college and he’s a free agent, why is he on this list?  Plain and simple: it’s his current value.  It is possible that he will always be injured.  It’s also possible that he may play for another team.  But, when you are able to grab a probable starting running back around Chase Edmonds and Rhamondre Stevenson ADP, you simply have to gamble.  And add to that how he finished the season.  Since week 14, he led all running backs in PPR by over ten points.  Many said Keenan Allen would never thrive due to his injuries, and I’m willing to wager that Rashaad Penny could hold value this season. Gamble on him as his price is low.

 

Wide Receiver - DJ Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars

Finding value at the end of the draft can be very difficult, but it’s not impossible.  One of the gems comes from one of the worst teams, in the name of DJ Chark.  If we only look back a couple years, DJ Chark was straight up fire.  In 15 games, even though he was catching balls from Blake Bortles, he still finished as WR17 in PPR.  Past the first game, he only had less than five targets once.  He also did so well even though he was not technically the starting wide receiver in Jacksonville that year.

 

While it’s true that last season was a disappointment, as he was injured most of the season, while he was playing he was pretty much Jacksonville’s only deep threat.  Moving into this season, it doesn’t seem as though the Jaguars will have another burner on the squad, leaving Chark as the one to benefit the most from Trevor Lawrence’s cannon of an arm.  And although Lawrence didn’t shine last year in the slightest, there is no doubt he will grow and only get better moving forward, as will his weapons.

 

Now, we simply cannot base value off of one year alone, but again, digging up diamonds late in the draft is not an easy task.  DJ Chark’s value is so low that he is going around the ADP of Rondale Moore and Corey Davis.  And even though I think Moore and Davis aren’t slouches, I’m willing to gamble that Chark will be the best option at receiver by a wide margin.  I have been able to draft him regularly past round 13 and beyond.  He makes it an easy decision at the draft table every single time.

 

Tight End - Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars

Before you take out your torches and pitchforks, I am well aware I am about to speak fondly about back to back Jacksonville Jaguars players.  As we all know, the tight end position is the one that is the most dominated by the least amount of players.  Past the first tier, the drop off is large, and past the next, the drop off is downright severe.  Spending up to claim one of the top tight ends is also very expensive.  So claiming the talent later on is essential to any fantasy team’s success.

 

I’ve had my eye on Dan Arnold for quite some time.  Since starting only one game in New Orleans, Arnold has traveled quite a bit.  The numbers don’t look very pleasing, but he was never given a chance until recently.  Being an undrafted player means that you have to earn every chance you get and his first real shot at league relevance started looking up in Arizona in 2020. While he caught 4 touchdowns, which is decent, he did so while only starting five games.  And while it’s a small detail on the larger picture, it is important, nonetheless.

 

Many were excited once Arnold came to Carolina with the chance to truly be the starter, but after only three games, he was shipped off to the basement dwelling Jaguars.  It is true that Arnold has not dominated in Jacksonville, but once again, the opportunity has not been the best.  With new coaching, improved quarterback play and the status as the starting tight end, I have no doubt Arnold will be one of the brighter spots.  I am driven by statistics, but every now and then, I go with my gut.  And when guys like Austin Hooper and Jared Cook are similarly valued in the draft, I choose Dan Arnold every time.  Finding a starting tight end this late means knowing where to look.

Dynasty Buy Lows & Sell Highs

by

Dynasty Buy Low Sell High

by Bob Miller

Aug. 8, 2021

Back in April, before the NFL Draft, I put out a “Buy Low Sell High” article. Looking back I hope you took my advice, because I recommended you buying low on players like Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Goedert, and Lamar Jackson. Some players I said to sell high were James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Chris Carson. You can see that article here: https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-buy-lows-sell-highs/

I’m back now to share with you who is on my “Buy Low Sell High” list now.

Tua Tagovailoa

So many fantasy football players are already calling Tua a bust. He was coming off a brutal injury, a shortened off-season, and an absolutely terrible receiving corp. That’s what Tua Tagovailoa dealt with last season. Now heading into year two, Tua now has a completely revamped receiving corps that fits his skillset perfectly, and he's had the full off-season to prepare as the starter. I can see Tua Tagovailoa being that late round QB to break out this season, just like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert did previously. He is one of my favorite buy low candidates.

Joe Burrow

I’d personally like to thank Justin Herbert for taking up all the rookie spotlight last year. That allows me to swoop in and get Burrow as a fantastic value. We all know that Burrow has tremendous talent, a great receiving back in Joe Mixon, and now three incredible WRs after drafting Ja’Marr Chase. Let’s add a terrible defense to the mix. All that means fantasy goodness. I don’t care if it’s garbage time or not, Burrow is going to be playing from behind a lot this season. That could very well put into the QB1 conversation.

TJ Hockenson

I’m not saying you will get Hockenson cheap, but this may very well be the lowest price you’ll be able to buy him moving forward. He and Jared Goff have worked together a lot this offseason, and it has been showing in camp. Multiple reports say that Hockenson is clearly the #1 target in the passing game. You can’t argue that when your starting WRs are Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams. Detroit is another terrible team that will be playing from behind a lot, which is good news for Hockenson owners. After this season I believe Hockenson will be joining the “Elite TE” Tier with Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

JK Dobbins

Dobbins showed everyone last season that he was arguably the best RB in the 2020 NFL Draft. Now he's poised to take a big step forward in his second season. While we can expect big things from Dobbins and this Ravens rushing attack, fantasy owners are still worried about Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards taking work from Dobbins. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry last season, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens have been throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increases his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. I have him projected for 1132 rushing yds, 11 TDs while adding 29 rec for 289 yds, and 1 rec TD. That puts him firmly in the RB1 category. 

DJ Chark

Remember this guy? DJ Chark was a hot name this time last year. In 2019 Chark averaged 15.67 PPR points per game. That was good for 14th amongst wide receivers. Unfortunately last season Jacksonville just stunk it up. Poor play calling and quarterback play crippled DJ Chark’s ceiling. Enter Trevor Lawrence. This big-armed quarterback isn’t afraid to sling the ball. Marvin Jones will get attention lining up on the other side of the field, and Laviska Shenault is a mismatch lining up in the slot. All of this bodes well for Chark, who should see plenty of single coverage. Currently being drafted/viewed as a WR3/WR4, Chark is a perfect buy low candidate that should return solid WR2 numbers.

 

Russell Wilson

Wilson is one of the first players that come to mind when I’m thinking “Sell”. He is an incredible fantasy QB throughout the first half of the season, but he really cools off for the 2nd half of the season. This has been the case over the last couple of seasons, and that really lets you down for your fantasy playoffs. In 2020 Wilson averaged 25.75 fantasy points through week 8. He averaged 17.08 points per game from Week 9 on. In 2019 he averaged 24.94 fantasy points per game through Week 9. After that.. 13.01 points per game moving forward. You can sell him now or use him until around Week 7 to trade him for a great return.

George Kittle

I’m not saying get rid of Kittle, but I would certainly entertain offers for him. He is an absolute beast when on the field. I don’t have to give you stats. Kittle is a fantasy stud, and we all know it. So why is he on this list? Because he plays pretty rough, and I have some durability concerns when it comes to him. Plus I love selling players at their highest value and getting good players and good picks in return. I would target the Darren Waller owner in your league and see if you can get Waller in addition to another solid player, or a 1st or 2nd round rookie pick.

Darrell Henderson

Sell, sell, sell, unless you handcuffed him to Cam Akers. If not, you’re playing with house money. You already have your RBs and Henderson was a late round or waiver wire pickup. Go target the RB needy owners in your league and make out like a bandit. I’ve seen Henderson go for a 1st round rookie pick in many leagues already. If you can make that deal, do it. If not, bundle him with someone to upgrade a position. My favorite is pairing him up with a mid tier Tight End to upgrade to Darren Waller or possibly even Travis Kelce.

Aaron Jones

Think about how worried you Aaron Jones owners were with the thought of Aaron Rodgers not returning to the Green Bay Packers. Those owners dodged a bullet this season, so let’s not go through that again. Rodgers’ new contract grants him an “out” after this season if he chooses. Sure, Aaron Jones put up great numbers last season averaging 18.49 PPR points per game, but if ARod leaves after this season, Jones’ fantasy stock will plummet. My recommendation is to cash out while you’re ahead. If you’re not getting what you want right now, don’t worry. Just wait a couple of games into the season. Everyone needs RBs in fantasy. When Jones puts up some serious fantasy points, take advantage at that point and cash in. 

Diontae Johnson

Johnson is another great sell high candidate. He averaged 15.09 PPR points last season as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target. Big Ben’s arm is shot, and this may very well be his last season. With that uncertainty looming in Pittsburgh makes me want to sell Johnson at what could be his highest value. With the emergence of Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Shuster getting his targets, it’s hard to predict what kind of numbers Johnson will put up this season. Don’t forget that the Steelers want to focus a lot more on the running game after selecting Najee Harris in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft. Find the Steelers fans in your league, because there is always Steelers fans in every league, and target another solid WR on their team like Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy, or DeVonta Smith.

5 Dynasty Offseason Targets

by

5 Dynasty Offseason Targets 

By Zach Kurt

The offseason is here and with that being said it’s trading time. Dynasty leagues offer a level of participation during the offseason. Where you make moves just as a NFL team does. Trading is my favorite element of dynasty leagues. Therefore, I have highlighted 5 players to go and trade for this offseason.

D.J. Chark (WR - JAX)

D.J. Chark in 2020 had a down year (53-706-5), primarily from the QB roulette he saw. Going from Minshew to Luton to Glennon had to be hard as a pass catcher. We saw Chark as a WR1 (73-1,008-8) with Minshew slinging the ball in 2019, proof a consistent QB allows him to shine.

Now imagine Chark with a consistent QB named Trevor Lawrence; Chark Attack! 

Chark’s outlook continues to look better and better to me. He is a phenomenal route runner and goes up and gets the ball. Giving him Urban Meyer and a QB who will be great for years to come makes me want to invest in Chark with hopes that he returns to WR1 form.

Scotty Miller (WR - TB)

With Chris Godwin potentially leaving the nest, Tom Brady’s slot role could be opening up and Scotty Miller is the perfect person to fill the Julian Edelman role. Throughout Brady’s career, he has been extremely friendly with slot receivers (Welker, Edelman, and Godwin). Edelman and Welker in their time with Brady, were just shy of 2,000 targets while the other WRs with Brady have been less than spectacular. 

Scotty is a speedy slot guy with great hands and a chance for all the opportunities. Miller already has rapport with Brady and you should buy him while you still can...while the price is still low. One final question you may ask yourself, is he a good bye when Brady maybe has 1 year left? Yes.  Just because Brady may leave doesn’t mean that the slot role disappears with the next QB. Take Jacoby Meyers for instance.  Brady left, Edelman was hurt, and Jacoby was the most involved receiver in that offense. I would still buy Miller even though a lot of his worth is riding on Brady.

Chase Edmonds (RB - ARI)

Chase Edmonds looked better than Kenyan Drake for nearly the entirety of the 2020 season, and how he did not assume the starting role in the season is beyond me. He had more YPCarry (4.6 vs 4.0), YPCatch (7.6 vs 5.5, targets (67 vs 31), receptions (53 vs 25), receiving yards (402 vs 137) and yet Drake got 250+ touches while Edmonds just had 150. 

Edmonds is a great runner in-between the tackles, agile, and can catch passes! Drake’s tenure is likely over in Arizona, even though he was almost a 1,000 yard rusher last year while being the less talented RB. You may have to pay up for Chase, but he has the opportunity to become a starter for one of the most explosive offenses in football. Why not go and grab an up and coming star?

Blake Jarwin (TE - DAL)

In 2020, the Cowboys lost long-time TE Jason Witten and WR Randall Cobb to free agency.  With them went over 160 targets from the 2019 season.  In came highly regarded rookie WR CeeDee Lamb and Blake Jarwin was finally supposed to get his opportunity to be the starting TE.  Unfortunately, his ACL had a different idea.  Star QB Dak Prescott was also gruesomely injured, seemingly lessening any impact a TE could have in Dallas.

Even without Prescott, Dalton Schultz was a top-12 TE. Blake Jarwin was ahead of Schultz on the depth chart for a reason; he is a great athlete who was trained by one of the all-time greats in Jason Witten, with the contract to match. With Dak back (or another starting qb) and Blake Jarwin in the starting role, we should be seeing some really good numbers coming from #89 the next few seasons to follow.

Jeff Wilson (RB - SF)

Jeff Wilson really showed up this season when Mostert was injured. In the last 3 weeks of the season, Wilson had 319 yards on the ground and 4 TD’s. Jeff was everything you would want in a starting RB. He has shown a similar level of competency as Mostert and right now he is getting absolutely no clout. I would buy him low right now. He is being considered as a valuable handcuff to Mostert. Wilson has the opportunity to win the starting job and even if he does not win,this is a Kyle Shanahan offense. He may not be an every week starter, but when you know he is the guy, you want to play him. A final note is Wilson has had an extremely good bill of health while Mostert has missed a lot of time. You are not paying a high price on Wilson and it could really pay off.

I really like the talent of all these guys above and I own them in at least one of my leagues. They all have immense upside and that is why they are some of my favorite trade targets. You could really see some zero-to-hero scenarios and it's best to buy when they are zeros. Send a couple of offers for these guys. The worst that can happen is rejection and in the fantasy community rejection is a way of life!

You can follow me on Twitter @Zachattacknfl

AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

by

AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Continuing our journey through the AFC we head south with the, wait for it, AFC South. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a new QB, amazing O line, stout RB and WR groups, and HC Frank Reich. This offensive core is NEUTRAL, gladly targeting without reaching.

QB Phillip Rivers: QB2, priority FA, QB is too deep of a position to be drafting Rivers but always worth to keep a close eye on an established veteran with a strong supporting cast!

RB Jonathon Taylor: Low-RB2, ideal RB3, 10-12% auction, round 4, Jonathon Taylor feels a lot like Ezekiel Elliot’s rookie year. Great offensive live, in the mix with veteran RB prescence, drafted highly, studs in college, and could be a fantasy 1st rounder as a sophomore. Love him, think he will be special!

RBs Marlon Mack: (RB4, 3-4% auction, round 9) and Nyheim Hines (zeroRB and PPR target, RB5-6, 1-2% auction, round 13) are in the mix for splitting the workload. It would be wise to invest in this backfield!

WR TY Hilton: Low-WR2, ideal WR3, 6-7% auction, round 6, I think this best ball target is being a little undervalued with his cost, big upside! I think Rivers will look for him often!

WR Michael Pittman (priority FA, deep league end of bench WR) and Parris Campbell (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14) are great complimentary pieces with TY Hilton. Both being big upside potential. The more I think about it the more I think this entire offense is undervalued!

TE Jack Doyle (TE2, borderline undraftable) and Trey Burton (priority FA, if Doyle misses time) will be more exciting options if a WR would miss time. Always best to keep an eye out for players in a good offense like this one!

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were certainly remembered for their playoff run last season. Nice bit of career redemption for Ryan Tannehill and monster efforts from Derrick Henry and AJ Brown were very exciting to see! The Titans are NEUTRAL with fair ADP all around.

QB Ryan Tannehill: QB2, priority FA, glad to see him do well on this team, struggling with injuries in Miami, it is always good to see a player full potential on display, I hope he can keep it up!

RB Derrick Henry: RB1, 20-22% auction, round 1, a big stock riser for me over the course of the summer, I now have him solidified as my RB6 and 6th overall player in all formats. This king of volume looks to repeat his success with little competition behind him.

RB Darryton Evans: RB6, $1 deep auction, intriguing prospect lands in a great situation. Pass-catching upside is there!

WR AJ Brown: Low-WR1 (robust RB with elite TR), ideal WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4, he had a truly amazing rookie season being a YAC monster, but questions of statistical sustainability linger. He is the top dog in town. Buy!

WR Corey Davis: (priority FA) has potential for opportunity, he just hasn’t done much with it so far. I’m fading until proven otherwise. Opportunity and talent remain bit I want to see it consistently come together before I get on my roster.

TE Jonnu Smith: TE2, $1 deep auction, round 14 if TE waiting has gone out of control. This TE on the rise certainly has plenty of opportunity with Delanie Walker out of town. Perhaps I’m too low on him but other TE options are more exciting to me. Worth drafting for sure! If he doesn’t pan out, TE is super deep.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a FADE, every player has value at a certain price, almost all of them I will be targeting only if at a bargain. Looming loses seems likely but week to week value can still be had.

QB Gardner Minshew: A national treasure, full of Chuck Norris energy! Or did Chuck Norris (RIP) have Gardner Minshew energy? Hmmm. Anyway, the only way I’m drafting him in standard rule leagues is with the Bud Light sweepstakes in mind. Have I mentioned that he is a national treasure?! Fun guy on a bad team, I’d rather not count on garbage time points.

RB Ryquell Armstead, Devine Ozigbo, and Chris Thompson: After the release of Leonard Fournette, can one of these guys return fantasy value?  We always want to keep players on our radars, but in this case I’m gonna let the radar blip. If Chris Thompson can stay on the field he has legitimate pass catching upside. Deep PPR target.

WR DJ Chark: WR2, 6-7%, late-4th/early-5th, Nope, not going sing it, can’t do it, let’s not get that song stuck in your head, I won’t do that to you my valued reader. He had a glorious breakout season, and was garbage time proof! Focal point of the offense! Call Me Maybe...ha

WR Dede Westbrook (deep PPR target, priority FA) and WR Lavishka Shenault (priority FA, deep end of bench stash) are still intriguing in the way that fantasy points can still be had in this offense, especially with the passing game if they are trailing in games.

TE Tyler Eifert: low TE2, priority FA, always has upside when he is healthy, his journey in the NFL has been rough, always flashed but has overcome some brutal injuries. Rooting for the guy, keep an eye out!

Houston Texans

HC (and GM?) Bill O’Brien has made some “interesting” off season decisions... new faces include David Johnson and Brandin cooks but franchise WR DeAndre Hopkins is gone. Deshaun Watson alone makes this team full of NEUTRAL targets.

QB Deshaun Watson: QB1, 5% auction, round 7, rushing upside while surrounded by nice weapons continues to make him an attractive QB! This fantasy friendly offense is likely to find themselves in shoot-outs with Watson being the prime beneficiary!

RB David Johnson: “Ladder Pick”, RB2 12-13% auction, round 4, I was very happy to see that I am higher on him than the market is. Could see a lot of touches, some worry remains about what he is able to do with them. I’m ok taking that risk with a player with his inherent upside.

RB Duke Johnson: Low-RB4, zeroRB and PPR target, I wish he would be implemented more because he is a unique talent with great pass-catching ability. Houston could find themselves in some shoot-outs. Best ball target!

WR Will Fuller: Low-WR3/high-WR4, 5-6% auction, round 7, only worry is health, but when healthy the Sky is the literal limit! QB-WR Continuity will be key is the season! I’d be aggressive targeting him in Best ball!

WR Brandin Cooks: Low-WR3 (robust EB with elite TE), ideal WR4, on his 4th team now starting his 7th season, he has proven to be new location proof. Houston can put up some serious offensive numbers. PPR target!

WR Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb: Priority FAs in a good offense. Should become wildly relevant if Fuller/Cooks were to miss time!