Detroit Lions

Dynasty Dilemma: Sam LaPorta

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Dynasty Dilemma: Sam LaPorta

 

And we’re back for another Dynasty Dilemma. Last week, I wrote about 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk (go check it out if you haven’t already!) Today, I will be switching positions to Tight End (TE) and highlighting a rookie who was just drafted in the 2023 NFL Draft. 2023 was a great draft for Tight Ends, starting off with Dalton Kincaid in the First Round. Kincaid is the first TE to be drafted in the first round since Kyle Pitts in 2021. To build off that, there were FIVE TEs drafted in the second round. I plan to talk about the very first one, second TE off the board, Sam LaPorta. LaPorta was drafted by the Detroit Lions with the 34th overall pick from Iowa University.

 

REASON TO BUY

 

Lions New TE1

The Detroit Lions were an ideal landing spot for Sam LaPorta. They’re a high-powered offense who have seen fantasy success for Tight Ends in the past. The Lions were a top 5 offense in the NFL last season with 45 total TDs scored, 4,281 receiving yards, and 2,179 rushing yards (6,460 total yards). Throughout OTAs and training camp, it’s become evident that the Lions want LaPorta to fit right into that TE1 role. “He’s earned the right now to be in that first-team huddle with Jared and that offensive line,” Lions offensive coordinator (OC) Ben Johnson said when asked about LaPorta. He goes on to say that “[LaPorta has proven himself] over the course of the springtime and the work that he’s put in…He’s still learning, and we are putting a lot of pressure on him to pick it up, but I think he’s in a good spot for a first-year tight end.” According to the Athletic, LaPorta is also getting work with the second and third-team offenses to maximize reps. All of this is evidence that the Lions expect LaPorta to start at TE for their season opener against the Kansas City Chiefs. 

 

Hock is Out, LaPorta is In

The Lions TE position dramatically opened up after Lions traded their star TE T.J. Hockenson to a division rival, the Minnesota Vikings. Also on their roster at TE, the Lions have Brock Wright and Shane Zylstra. Zylstra, unfortunately, suffered a serious knee injury during training camp and might miss the next 6 months. While injuries are unlucky and unfortunate, everyone around football knows they’re a part of the game. LaPorta’s only real competition for that TE1 spot is Brock Wright. Wright is mainly used as a blocking TE in the Lions offensive scheme as he only had 24 targets over 17 games played during the 2022 season. Now, what does this mean for fantasy owners if LaPorta does end up becoming their TE1? In 2020, TJ Hockenson finished as a top 5 TE with 175.3 total points (PPR) and 11 points per game (ppg). During that season, he had 6 TDs, 723 receiving yards, and 67 receptions (101 targets). During the 2021 season, Hock only played 12 games due to injury but still finished as a Top 5 TE in fantasy ppg. He averaged 12.1 fantasy ppg (PPR) with 61 receptions, 583 yards, and 4 TDs. Previous season stats tell us that Sam LaPorta is on a high scoring offense that likes to target TE and can support a Fantasy TE1. 

 

Draft Capital 

The Detroit Lions spent an early 2nd round pick on Sam LaPorta and it makes sense why. LaPorta went to Iowa University and was able to start two games his freshman year. During his sophomore year at Iowa, he started 5/8 games where he had 27 receptions, 271 yards, and 1 TD. He became a big part of the Iowa offense as a junior where he became a full-time starter. He put up over 600 yards his junior AND senior year and holds Iowa’s record for first among TEs in receptions and second in total yards. LaPorta has shown reliable hands and is great at securing the football. His strong pass catching abilities are what made him really stand out at Iowa as he’s able to use his size to make tough, contested catches while being able to hold onto the football. Additionally Iowa, under Kirk Ferentz, is known for producing great TEs that perform at a very high level in the NFL. Two Iowa alumni include George Kittle and T.J. Hockenson. Both Kittle and Hock have put up multiple TE1 seasons in the NFL and have been a huge part of their respective offenses. Kittle is well known for his yards after catch (YAC) which LaPorta has shown a similar knack for at Iowa. It won’t be long before LaPorta succeeds at the pro level. 

 

 

REASON TO SELL

 

Rookie TE

Obviously, Sam LaPorta is unproven. He’s a rookie! He’s never played an NFL snap and we have no idea how he will actually perform under the big lights. Historically, rookie TE haven’t done so well their first year. A general consensus around the league is that it takes about 3 years for a Tight End to fully develop in the National Football League. LaPorta also doesn’t have elite speed. He ran a 4.59 second 40 yard dash at the Combine which wasn’t great and not bad either. Another large aspect of being an NFL TE is being able to block. LaPorta was able to improve his blocking skills throughout his career at Iowa but wouldn’t be considered one of his strengths. We need to hope he can work on these skills to perform at the next level.

 

Crowded Offense

The Lions also spent significant draft capital on another skill position in the 2023 draft when they drafted RB Jahmyr Gibbs in the First Round. Dan Campbell has mentioned multiple times that he expects Gibbs to be a large part of their offense on the ground and in the passing game. Amon-Ra St. Brown is another superstar on this offense and a favorite target of Jared Goff. The Lions also expect to have Jameson Williams after his suspension ends before Week 7. Both young WR could hurt LaPorta’s production in the passing game. We must hope the Lions will once again be that high powered offense from last season where Jared Goff can distribute the ball to multiple targets and sustain high fantasy production. 

 

Verdict

Sam LaPorta is flying under the radar right now and I am imploring you all to take advantage. He is a Strong Buy at his current ADP.  LaPorta has ALL the skills to be a great TE in the NFL and will boast multiple TE1 seasons allowing for a very strong ROI. It’s important for Dynasty players to take advantage now and buy low this summer before he reaches the national stage this upcoming season. The Lions are a great landing spot for Sam LaPorta and training camp reports reveal their dedication to his development. His market value is on the rise, and everyone should cash in before it’s too late.

 

BUY

Dynasty Dilemma: David Montgomery

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David Montgomery 3rd round pick in 2019 out of Iowa State. Is a model of consistency. Here is the breakdown per year of how he produced. In 2019, 889 yards, 6 TD, 2020 1070 yards 8TD, 2021 849 yards 7 TD, 2022 801 yards 5TD. This is production out of a position where you're usually scraping the barrel to find something. A starter for 3 of the 4 years. For every piece they brought in he beat out: Tarik Cohen, Ryan Nall, Lamar Miller, Damien WIlliams, Khalil Herbert, Darrynton Evans, and Tristen Ebner. With a new regime now in Chicago, Montgomery was never going to get resigned and ultimately that may be the end of Khalil Herbert as well in Chicago, only time will tell. Unlike Herbert though, Montgomery has the new landing spot in Detroit. With receiving upside and not many other running backs on the roster, expect him to be used early and often. As well as these other reasons below.

 

REASON TO BUY

The Detroit Lions runnings back on the roster after Montgomery are Jermar Jefferson, Craig Reynolds, Mohamed Ibrahim, and Jahmyr Gibbs. With really Gibbs as his only competition for snaps Montgomery should fill the role of Jamaal WIlliams and do it more efficiently on a play-by-play basis. He may not be able to get the touchdown total as high as Williams did last year but it should be made up for the yardage he gains.

Another huge reason to buy Montgomery is he has only missed 5 games in his career due to injury. His body heals fast and has avoided the major injuries that will knock you out for over a year. The last point I will make is he has 915 rushes in his career and 155 receptions. He is a model of consistency that shouldn't hinder you at all from getting him from impatient Monty owners. Should you overpay?

 

 

REASON TO SELL

For some of the reasons above, this is exactly why you should sell Montgomery. His model of consistency averages out to 902.25 yards per year and 6.5 touchdowns per year (rushing stats only). While this is good, Montgomery almost always gets overdrafted in redraft and dynasty formats because many think he can make the next step. At 25 years old he is in the prime of his career and even in the new landing spot, he has competition.

As a member of the don't draft Monty fan club because I can always talk myself out of him, it is unfair because I didn’t like his inconsistency in fantasy. Some games he can put up 30 points and then end up with 3 games in a row with 5 or 6 points. I need more from the running back position than that. So I usually go in a different direction.

 

 

VERDICT

Bob Miller’s Dynasty Dilemma (please link) on Jahmyr Gibbs gives us reasons to buy and sell him but the question is will Gibbs get the Deandre Swift treatment and not get used, or will they buy in and let him be the back he is, a receiving and outside runner that is in open space would dominate. If anything from last year tells us anything, Montgomery is going to be heavily involved. Gibbs being a receiving threat does not scare me off of Montgomery for the fact of the 155 receptions David has already. I think they will be patient with Gibbs, he will get his time but Montgomery will start and finish most drives, in my opinion, this year.

In redraft leagues he is an easy pickup for me, I’m willing to get hurt again. In Dynasty, he is probably a hold because you don’t want to sell him for cheap because of Gibbs but you can wait and see what the backfield looks like during the season to see when to sell him if you really want to. David Montgomery is a buy.

BUY

Dynasty Dilemma: Jahmyr Gibbs

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jahmyr Gibbs

 

It was quite the surprise to everyone that Jahmyr Gibbs was selected 12th overall by the Detroit Lions. Most mock drafts out there had only one running back (Bijan Robinson) going in the first round. In fact, there was a ton of speculation as to where Gibbs would end up. The most common rumor was the Philadelphia Eagles leaving the NFL Draft with Gibbs as part of their roster. I find it kind of funny how that didn’t happen, but the Eagles actually traded for D’Andre Swift, who Jahmyr Gibbs was drafted to replace. That was certainly an entertaining situation to watch unfold. Anyhow, I’m here to give you my thoughts on if you should consider trading for Gibbs in Dynasty, or if you should think about selling him.

 

 

REASON TO BUY

 

SKILL SET

Jahmyr Gibbs has all the tools to be a successful running back in the NFL. It starts with his burst. He has an extra gear that most running backs don’t, meaning he has the ability to leave his opponents in the dust when he hits the open field. You combine that with his superb vision, and you have yourself a deadly weapon on offense. He is an absolute threat to take it to the house each time he touches the ball.

 

PPR LEAGUES

His value only increases in PPR Leagues. Gibbs has been compared to Alvin Kamara, which I consider a great NFL Comp. I see a little of Austin Ekeler in him as well, which only makes all of these comparisons wonderful. If he can average between 6-8 receptions per game, he will be a top tier PPR asset. 

 

 

REASON TO SELL

 

DAVID MONTGOMERY

This one is obvious. After seeing how Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift were used in this offense, is it safe to say that we could see the same type of usage with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs? I mean, Montgomery is a very good running back, and he is still only 25 years old. For comparison’s sake, Jamaal Williams was 27 last year when he finished as the RB13 by putting up 226 fantasy points compared to 191 points from D’Andre Swift, who finished as the RB21. Swift did miss a couple of games as well. Just like Jamaal Williams, I say that David Montgomery could lead the NFL in touchdowns this coming season.

 

So here’s the question, should Montgomery be considered a high end RB2 or potentially even a back end RB1? 

I say yes.

 

Should Jahmyr Gibbs be considered more of an RB2 instead of an RB1? 

Again, I say yes.

 

DETROIT LIONS

Detroit just doesn’t produce fantasy RB1s. In fact, the last time the Lions had a running back finish inside the top 12 was way back in 2013 when Reggie Bush finished as the RB9. So we’re going on ten years now, and the Lions have two legit running backs to feed. Detroit seems to really like what they had last season using that two running back committee. So, with Montgomery and Gibbs sharing this backfield, I see no reason for them to change anytime soon. 

 

RETURN

If you selected Gibbs in your Rookie Draft, then you were probably picking between the 1.05-1.07. That means you were middle of the pack and almost made it into your fantasy playoffs. We all know, if you have the right players in the playoffs, you have a strong chance of making a deep run. So, if I’m a Gibbs owner, I’m looking to see if I can sell high and get a player like Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, or possibly Josh Jacobs straight up for him. In my opinion, as long as Montgomery is in the picture, those players should give you a better chance of winning a fantasy championship than Gibbs.

 

VERDICT

Unfortunately, I think that Gibbs owners will get frustrated at times, just like the D’Andre Swift owners were. Like I said, you’re really close to getting into the playoffs, so I would strongly consider trading Gibbs if you can get the right player or players in return. If you can get an elite asset that scores over 300+ fantasy points per season like McCaffrey, Lamb, Brown, or Jacobs you have to consider it. Gibbs may be more of a 200-240 player with Montgomery in the fold. With all that being said, DO NOT trade him unless you get an elite or top tier player in return.

 

SELL HIGH

Dynasty Dilemma: Jameson Williams

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jameson Williams

By Alex French

 

Jameson Williams, along with five other NFL players have been suspended for violating the NFL’s policy on gambling. Williams will miss the first 6 games of the 2023 season. This is a tough loss for  a Lions offense expecting  to take a step forward  in 2023. Widely regarded  as one of the top talents in last year's NFL draft class, Williams missed a majority of 2022 while recovering from a torn ACL in January.  It’s time to decide what to do with him for  your fantasy teams. 

One of the most improved teams of 2022, the Detroit Lions exceeded all  expectations. The duo of Quarterback Jared Goff and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson proved to be a great match as they led the Lions to a 9-8 season. The Lions won eight  of their last  nine games en route to a top five finish in scoring offense. The offense proved so efficient that Ben Johnson became a top head coach candidate before he informed teams he wanted to stay in Detroit. Johnson created an explosive and balanced offense that averaged over 6.5 yards per pass play and over  5.2 yards per carry. Looking forward, another year in the Ben Johnson offense should only improve efficiency as well as allow the offense to play with more tempo. Continuity and a strong offensive line should help the Lions have another successful offense in 2023. With a little background into the Lions offense, now we can decide if it's worth acquiring Jameson Williams.

 

 

Initially recruited to Ohio State in a class with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, Jameson Williams chose to transfer to Alabama for his final collegiate season in 2021 as a junior. His lone season. With the Crimson Tide proved to be his breakout season. As a transfer, Williams commanded a 20.7 percent target share, which translated. To an over 31 percent dominator rating. That translates to 79 receptions, 1,572 receiving yards and 17 total Touchdowns. Williams features elite-level 4.30 speed, with excellent route running.  He averaged a stellar 19.9. Yards per reception, which appears to indicate he’s primarily a deep threat, however Williams is great after the catch, as indicated by his average 9.3 yards after the catch per reception.  In all, Jameson Williams is an excellent talent at the wide receiver position. His profile has many of the indicators of a fantasy superstar, but let’s weigh the risk.

 

 

 

Let’s put aside the suspension for a minute, and further evaluate. Jameson Williams famously tore his ACL in the National Championship game in January of 2022. He spent the next few months rehabbing before making his NFL debut week 13. He played just 6 games in his rookie season, never playing more than 25 percent of snaps. Fast forward to 2023. Williams is now suspended for the first 6 games of the year. So we have a second year receiver, who has only played very limited snaps with his quarterback, missing the first 6 games of his sophomore season. That’s quite a bit of risk to take on for a 180 pound unproven young receiver. But what's the cost you might ask?

 

 

This is where I believe the good outweighs the risk. Jameson Williams was drafted number 12 overall in last year's NFL draft. He was also universally a top 10 rookie draft pick in 2022 rookie drafts. One year later, his fantasy managers are likely frustrated with the lack of production and availability, which creates a potential acquisition window. I think we should capitalize on this. I'd begin negotiations with a 2nd round pick. I think this is a great starting point, and I think any pick in the second round is fair value. More often than not, round two rookie picks are a coin flip. With this in mind, I'm more than willing to take a shot on the talent of Jameson Williams. An incredible talent that p;played for two powerhouse schools known for producing NFL receiver talent, Williams has a chance to be a fantasy star. Though the suspension is unfortunate, we can take advantage of the situation to add talent to our roster. I believe a 2nd round pick could get a deal done, but if not, I'd be willing to add a later round rookie pick to ensure a deal is done.  Throw some offers out there and let us know how it went, and feel free to follow me on Twitter  to let me know what you think. 

 

Objects In The Rear View Mirror: Amon-Ra St. Brown

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Objects In The Rear View Mirror
Amon-Ra St. Brown

By Joel Wirth

 

Anyone who has driven an automobile is (or should be) familiar with the sentence “Objects in the rear view mirror may be closer than they appear.” It’s placed on the passenger-side rear view mirror to notify drivers that what they see in that mirror may not accurately reflect the reality of the circumstances at large. This can be true in fantasy football, as well. Oftentimes we look at a situation and see something that may or may not accurately reflect that situation. In this series, we’ll examine a particular viewpoint and see if it matches reality or if there’s something coming up in our blind spot that may be closer than it appears.

The Mirror View

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s late season success was due to other, more established players being unavailable.

After a nondescript start to his rookie season, Amon-Ra St. Brown finished on an absolute tear. Through the first 11 games of the 2021 season, St. Brown had a receiving line of 52/39/352/01 (Targets/Receptions/Receiving Yards/Touchdowns). In the final six games of the season, that line jumped to 67/51/560/51. Extrapolated to a full season, that six-game stretch would have yielded a bananas line of 189/144/1586/14. For comparison, Ja’Marr Chase was the top fantasy-scoring rookie, with a stat line of 128/81/1455/132. Extrapolating small sample size numbers over a full season is always a perilous endeavor, but it does show the fantasy ceiling that St. Brown has. Those numbers would have made him the second highest scoring wide receiver of 2021, behind only Cooper Kupp’s historic season.

Many see this increase in production solely as an increase in opportunity. Lions running back D’Andre Swift missed Weeks 13-16 of the season after injuring his shoulder in the Lions Thanksgiving Day loss to Chicago. Similarly, tight end TJ Hockenson missed the final five weeks after being shut down with a hand injury. Even with those weeks missed to injury, Hockenson and Swift finished 2nd and 3rd to St. Brown in passing targets on the Lions. Other than those three, only journeyman WR Kalif Raymond finished with more than *36* targets.

Hockenson and Swift are and were, objectively, pillars of the Lions offense and ARSB’s elite production did absolutely come with either or both of them out, but there was another factor that coincided with that production leap. Head coach Dan Campbell relieved then offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn of the play-calling duties and took them over for the Lions Week 10 game at Pittsburgh. Jared Goff missed the following week’s game with an oblique injury then returned for the team’s Thanksgiving Day (i.e. short week) game. The following week, in a home game against Minnesota was when St. Brown took off. He saw double-digit targets and caught at least eight balls every game the rest of the way. He was essentially quarterback-proof, as Goff would miss two more games during that stretch. In that Minnesota game, St. Brown got his first rushing attempt of the season. He would see six more by the end of the season. Seven rushing attempts does not a Deebo Samuel make, but it did rank tied for 14th3 in the league. Perhaps getting the ball into St. Brown’s hands was a priority for the HC/play caller. Perhaps not prioritizing doing so was a contributing factor in the demise of the former play caller.

To assess St. Brown’s dynasty value, we need to look back into his prospect profile. As a junior declare from USC, he was expected to be a 2nd round draft pick, with the potential to sneak into the back end of the first round. This was high praise, as the 2021 Draft class was ripe with receiving talent. The aforementioned Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonta Smith were all seen as surefire first round picks, and Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman, and St. Brown all expected to go in the early-to-mid second round at the latest. St. Brown would be the only one of those to not fulfill that expectation. He fell to the fourth round, pick 112 overall, and the 21st pass catcher (WR or TE) taken, behind such NFL luminaries as Tutu Atwell, Dyami Brown, Dez Fitzpatrick, and Tre’ McKitty (yikes around).
To what can we attribute the draft day fall for St. Brown? Perhaps his lack of elite speed? Though his game tape showed functional play speed, St. Brown ran only a 4.61 40-yard dash at his pro day4. As a prospect, St. Brown profiled similarly to Chris Olave from this year’s class. Both are top notch route runners with elite body control and excellent hands. Neither are physically dominating, St. Brown bigger, Olave faster. With a number of veteran wide receivers commanding massive contract extensions in the ‘21-’22 offseason, wideouts became a draft priority in 2022. Olave would become the number 11 overall selection. Had St. Brown followed Olave and played out his senior season, he may have similarly benefitted from the changing landscape and commanded significantly higher draft capital and the accompanying increase in contract salary and leverage.

There was no Draft Combine in 2021 due to COVID restrictions. Maybe that played a role? Maybe it was a combination of individual team circumstances? The Packers needed a developmental WR, and there was pre-draft chatter they may select Amon-Ra and unite him with his older brother Equanimeous in Green Bay. That was not to be as GM Brian Gutekunst decided the Pack needed someone with proven return skills and took Amari Rodgers from Clemson. Rodgers would go on to put up an 8/4/45/0 rookie season receiving line. It’s not a stretch to say Gutekunst, among several other GMs, regrets not taking St. Brown when they had the chance.

In dynasty rookie drafts last year, St. Brown was a mid-to-late 2nd round pick in single QB leagues and a late-2nd to early-3rd round pick in superflex/2 QB leagues. That’s no insult in a historically loaded draft class, although some dynasty GMs (myself unfortunately included), like their NFL counterparts may have some lingering regret after prioritizing Amari Rodgers, among others, over ARSB.

 

The Reality

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s late season success was a function of opportunity *and* ability.

Quite simply, you don’t put up the kind of numbers St. Brown did last year without being that damn good. His 76% catch rate during the spike weeks is identical to his season-long rate, and is elite, rookie or not. That makes him a reliable target, and reliable targets get targets, especially from a quarterback like Jared Goff. The analytics sites were more than impressed with St. Brown’s production. Pro Football Focus5 graded him as the 16th best WR in the league and Football Outsiders6 ranked him 22nd.

The narrative that St. Brown was the “only” viable passing game target for the six weeks of his production spike is simply false. Hockenson played in the first game, Swift the final two. Detroit has undoubtedly upgraded its offensive talent. They’ve brought in DJ Chark from Jacksonville as a free agent and drafted Jameson Williams in the first round. Neither of them project to be the type of high volume receiver that Amon-Ra St. Brown has already proven to be, though. It’s also not terribly likely that Chark and Williams end up playing many games together for the Lions. Chark is on a one year deal and Williams will likely miss most of his rookie season after tearing his ACL in the National Championship Game in January. A typical 9-10 month recovery would mean he probably doesn’t suit up until November, at best.

There will almost certainly be more competition for targets in the Detroit offense than there was last year, including and especially when Hockenson and Swift were out, but Amon-Ra St. Brown has proven that he deserves a significant share of those targets. He will never be the physically dominant alpha-WR1 that every dynasty manager prays for before they go to sleep, but ARSB will be a target hog in an improving Detroit offense as a 23-year-old. That’s a Top 20 dynasty WR any way you slice it . Throw in the possibility of an upgrade over Jared Goff at QB (Paging Jimmy Garoppolo; Jimmy Garoppolo, please pick up the Honolulu Blue courtesy phone), and the offensive improvements that would go along with it, and you’ve got something to dream on after dozing off following those prayers.

 

NFC North Predictions for 2022

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NFC North Predictions for 2022

By Tim Lazenby

When it comes to the one division in the NFL with the most history, we look no further than the NFC North.  Featuring three of the oldest five franchises in the entire league, there’s always a story unfolding and a legend continuing.  Let’s take a look at the most storied franchise in the NFL and try to predict how they’ll do in 2022.

Chicago Bears

Record in 2021: 6-11-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 7-10-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

It’s hard to look at the Chicago Bears and not feel some sort of optimism.  Brimming with youth, players like Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are ready to take that next step.  I do worry about that defense, who was already near the bottom last season even before the departures of key cogs Eddie Goldman, Danny Trevathan and Khalil Mack.

Situation to Watch

Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus arrive in Chicago this off season with a big task ahead of them.  For way too long now, the Bears haven’t lived up to the name of “Da Bears” that fans know and love.  It will be curious to see how the wrongs will be righted by this duo moving forward with this squad.  One thing is for sure, the McCaskey’s have done what they can to ensure the success of the franchise moving forward.

Conclusion

While I see the light at the end of the tunnel, we’re certainly not there yet.  David Montgomery has been a largely unregarded hero of this squad but he needs help.  For the team to succeed, Justin Fields simply has to take charge.  With no first round pick this off season, we may just have to wait until next year for this team to bear fruit come playoff time.

Detroit Lions

Record in 2021: 3-13-1  

Predicted Record in 2022: 7-10-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

The Detroit Lions offense runs through the air.  D’Andre Swift is one of the best pass catching backs in the game today and TJ Hockenson is thrilling at tight end.  Adding DJ Chark and rookie Jameson Williams should make this team even better.  But with all these players struggling to stay on the field, the risk of injury is rampant.

There’s no chance of winning if your best players are in suits and ties.

Situation to Watch

Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow, Jonah Jackson and Penei Sewell make up one of the best quartets in the league among offensive lines.  We, however, can’t overlook the season Halapoulivaati Vaitai had last year.  Switching from tackle to guard and struggling with injuries last year, he is the last piece of the puzzle on this offensive line that could be near the top of the league.  Goff’s success depends on it.

Conclusion

With only two double digit win seasons since 1995, the Lions haven't given their fans what they deserved.  GM Brad Holmes has wasted no time putting his stamp on this team.  Trading away franchise face Matthew Stafford was a necessary evil, but it stings nonetheless.  I see a big improvement from the Lions this year provided we see more of 2017/2018 Goff rather than 2021 Goff.

Green Bay Packers

Record in 2021: 13-4-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 10-7-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

Although I disagree, some consider Aaron Rodgers the best to play the game.  You have to wonder though if he’ll remain just as magical without Devante Adams in the fold.  I know he’s played without him before, but going from Devante Adams to Allen Lazard is quite a steep dropoff.  We all have to hope that Christian Watson can replicate even a portion of the production lost from Adams in his reuniting with Derek Carr.

Situation to Watch

I am looking forward to watching Aaron Rodgers play football: plain and simple.  Whether it be his feud with general manager Brian Gutekunst that took headlines in 2020 or his retirement drama that overtook this entire offseason, I’ve had enough.  No more drama, no more storylines, just show us the magic on the field; however that may unfold.

Conclusion

Like I said before, the loss of Devante Adams can’t be understated.  Although the Packers should still win the division next season, it won’t be in the usual juggernaut style that they’ve become accustomed to.  Matt Lafleur will fall well short of his routine 13 win mark and questions will need to be addressed for 2023 and beyond.

Minnesota Vikings

Record in 2021: 8-9-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

Minnesota features one of the best air/ground combo in the entire league.  Dalvin Cook is elite, and while Adam Thielen and KJ Osborne are fantastic, Justin Jefferson is out of this world.  But I can’t help but wonder what has happened to this elite defense last season.  The marque names are still there, but something isn’t gelling anymore.  For any chance in this division, newly anointed defensive coordinator Ed Donatell has his work cut out for him.

Situation to Watch

In a world of incentive based contracts, how was it that Kirk Cousins, of all people, landed a second consecutive fully guaranteed contract?  I’m not saying Cousins is bad, but he’s certainly not on a list of names you’d figure could accomplish the feat.  He has to show more to not be jeered by pundits and fans alike.  This time cannot afford to be a middle of the pack one anymore.

Conclusion

I see yet another 500-ish season for the Vikings.  The talent is there, but the application just isn’t happening.  I also fear that Minnesota just can’t get it done unless they have a different quarterback.  In a world where you have Justin Jefferson, you simply must do whatever you can to utilize his talents to their fullest potential.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby