Detroit Lions

Objects In The Rear View Mirror: Amon-Ra St. Brown

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Objects In The Rear View Mirror
Amon-Ra St. Brown

By Joel Wirth

 

Anyone who has driven an automobile is (or should be) familiar with the sentence “Objects in the rear view mirror may be closer than they appear.” It’s placed on the passenger-side rear view mirror to notify drivers that what they see in that mirror may not accurately reflect the reality of the circumstances at large. This can be true in fantasy football, as well. Oftentimes we look at a situation and see something that may or may not accurately reflect that situation. In this series, we’ll examine a particular viewpoint and see if it matches reality or if there’s something coming up in our blind spot that may be closer than it appears.

The Mirror View

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s late season success was due to other, more established players being unavailable.

After a nondescript start to his rookie season, Amon-Ra St. Brown finished on an absolute tear. Through the first 11 games of the 2021 season, St. Brown had a receiving line of 52/39/352/01 (Targets/Receptions/Receiving Yards/Touchdowns). In the final six games of the season, that line jumped to 67/51/560/51. Extrapolated to a full season, that six-game stretch would have yielded a bananas line of 189/144/1586/14. For comparison, Ja’Marr Chase was the top fantasy-scoring rookie, with a stat line of 128/81/1455/132. Extrapolating small sample size numbers over a full season is always a perilous endeavor, but it does show the fantasy ceiling that St. Brown has. Those numbers would have made him the second highest scoring wide receiver of 2021, behind only Cooper Kupp’s historic season.

Many see this increase in production solely as an increase in opportunity. Lions running back D’Andre Swift missed Weeks 13-16 of the season after injuring his shoulder in the Lions Thanksgiving Day loss to Chicago. Similarly, tight end TJ Hockenson missed the final five weeks after being shut down with a hand injury. Even with those weeks missed to injury, Hockenson and Swift finished 2nd and 3rd to St. Brown in passing targets on the Lions. Other than those three, only journeyman WR Kalif Raymond finished with more than *36* targets.

Hockenson and Swift are and were, objectively, pillars of the Lions offense and ARSB’s elite production did absolutely come with either or both of them out, but there was another factor that coincided with that production leap. Head coach Dan Campbell relieved then offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn of the play-calling duties and took them over for the Lions Week 10 game at Pittsburgh. Jared Goff missed the following week’s game with an oblique injury then returned for the team’s Thanksgiving Day (i.e. short week) game. The following week, in a home game against Minnesota was when St. Brown took off. He saw double-digit targets and caught at least eight balls every game the rest of the way. He was essentially quarterback-proof, as Goff would miss two more games during that stretch. In that Minnesota game, St. Brown got his first rushing attempt of the season. He would see six more by the end of the season. Seven rushing attempts does not a Deebo Samuel make, but it did rank tied for 14th3 in the league. Perhaps getting the ball into St. Brown’s hands was a priority for the HC/play caller. Perhaps not prioritizing doing so was a contributing factor in the demise of the former play caller.

To assess St. Brown’s dynasty value, we need to look back into his prospect profile. As a junior declare from USC, he was expected to be a 2nd round draft pick, with the potential to sneak into the back end of the first round. This was high praise, as the 2021 Draft class was ripe with receiving talent. The aforementioned Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonta Smith were all seen as surefire first round picks, and Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman, and St. Brown all expected to go in the early-to-mid second round at the latest. St. Brown would be the only one of those to not fulfill that expectation. He fell to the fourth round, pick 112 overall, and the 21st pass catcher (WR or TE) taken, behind such NFL luminaries as Tutu Atwell, Dyami Brown, Dez Fitzpatrick, and Tre’ McKitty (yikes around).
To what can we attribute the draft day fall for St. Brown? Perhaps his lack of elite speed? Though his game tape showed functional play speed, St. Brown ran only a 4.61 40-yard dash at his pro day4. As a prospect, St. Brown profiled similarly to Chris Olave from this year’s class. Both are top notch route runners with elite body control and excellent hands. Neither are physically dominating, St. Brown bigger, Olave faster. With a number of veteran wide receivers commanding massive contract extensions in the ‘21-’22 offseason, wideouts became a draft priority in 2022. Olave would become the number 11 overall selection. Had St. Brown followed Olave and played out his senior season, he may have similarly benefitted from the changing landscape and commanded significantly higher draft capital and the accompanying increase in contract salary and leverage.

There was no Draft Combine in 2021 due to COVID restrictions. Maybe that played a role? Maybe it was a combination of individual team circumstances? The Packers needed a developmental WR, and there was pre-draft chatter they may select Amon-Ra and unite him with his older brother Equanimeous in Green Bay. That was not to be as GM Brian Gutekunst decided the Pack needed someone with proven return skills and took Amari Rodgers from Clemson. Rodgers would go on to put up an 8/4/45/0 rookie season receiving line. It’s not a stretch to say Gutekunst, among several other GMs, regrets not taking St. Brown when they had the chance.

In dynasty rookie drafts last year, St. Brown was a mid-to-late 2nd round pick in single QB leagues and a late-2nd to early-3rd round pick in superflex/2 QB leagues. That’s no insult in a historically loaded draft class, although some dynasty GMs (myself unfortunately included), like their NFL counterparts may have some lingering regret after prioritizing Amari Rodgers, among others, over ARSB.

 

The Reality

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s late season success was a function of opportunity *and* ability.

Quite simply, you don’t put up the kind of numbers St. Brown did last year without being that damn good. His 76% catch rate during the spike weeks is identical to his season-long rate, and is elite, rookie or not. That makes him a reliable target, and reliable targets get targets, especially from a quarterback like Jared Goff. The analytics sites were more than impressed with St. Brown’s production. Pro Football Focus5 graded him as the 16th best WR in the league and Football Outsiders6 ranked him 22nd.

The narrative that St. Brown was the “only” viable passing game target for the six weeks of his production spike is simply false. Hockenson played in the first game, Swift the final two. Detroit has undoubtedly upgraded its offensive talent. They’ve brought in DJ Chark from Jacksonville as a free agent and drafted Jameson Williams in the first round. Neither of them project to be the type of high volume receiver that Amon-Ra St. Brown has already proven to be, though. It’s also not terribly likely that Chark and Williams end up playing many games together for the Lions. Chark is on a one year deal and Williams will likely miss most of his rookie season after tearing his ACL in the National Championship Game in January. A typical 9-10 month recovery would mean he probably doesn’t suit up until November, at best.

There will almost certainly be more competition for targets in the Detroit offense than there was last year, including and especially when Hockenson and Swift were out, but Amon-Ra St. Brown has proven that he deserves a significant share of those targets. He will never be the physically dominant alpha-WR1 that every dynasty manager prays for before they go to sleep, but ARSB will be a target hog in an improving Detroit offense as a 23-year-old. That’s a Top 20 dynasty WR any way you slice it . Throw in the possibility of an upgrade over Jared Goff at QB (Paging Jimmy Garoppolo; Jimmy Garoppolo, please pick up the Honolulu Blue courtesy phone), and the offensive improvements that would go along with it, and you’ve got something to dream on after dozing off following those prayers.

 

NFC North Predictions for 2022

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NFC North Predictions for 2022

By Tim Lazenby

When it comes to the one division in the NFL with the most history, we look no further than the NFC North.  Featuring three of the oldest five franchises in the entire league, there’s always a story unfolding and a legend continuing.  Let’s take a look at the most storied franchise in the NFL and try to predict how they’ll do in 2022.

Chicago Bears

Record in 2021: 6-11-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 7-10-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

It’s hard to look at the Chicago Bears and not feel some sort of optimism.  Brimming with youth, players like Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are ready to take that next step.  I do worry about that defense, who was already near the bottom last season even before the departures of key cogs Eddie Goldman, Danny Trevathan and Khalil Mack.

Situation to Watch

Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus arrive in Chicago this off season with a big task ahead of them.  For way too long now, the Bears haven’t lived up to the name of “Da Bears” that fans know and love.  It will be curious to see how the wrongs will be righted by this duo moving forward with this squad.  One thing is for sure, the McCaskey’s have done what they can to ensure the success of the franchise moving forward.

Conclusion

While I see the light at the end of the tunnel, we’re certainly not there yet.  David Montgomery has been a largely unregarded hero of this squad but he needs help.  For the team to succeed, Justin Fields simply has to take charge.  With no first round pick this off season, we may just have to wait until next year for this team to bear fruit come playoff time.

Detroit Lions

Record in 2021: 3-13-1  

Predicted Record in 2022: 7-10-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

The Detroit Lions offense runs through the air.  D’Andre Swift is one of the best pass catching backs in the game today and TJ Hockenson is thrilling at tight end.  Adding DJ Chark and rookie Jameson Williams should make this team even better.  But with all these players struggling to stay on the field, the risk of injury is rampant.

There’s no chance of winning if your best players are in suits and ties.

Situation to Watch

Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow, Jonah Jackson and Penei Sewell make up one of the best quartets in the league among offensive lines.  We, however, can’t overlook the season Halapoulivaati Vaitai had last year.  Switching from tackle to guard and struggling with injuries last year, he is the last piece of the puzzle on this offensive line that could be near the top of the league.  Goff’s success depends on it.

Conclusion

With only two double digit win seasons since 1995, the Lions haven't given their fans what they deserved.  GM Brad Holmes has wasted no time putting his stamp on this team.  Trading away franchise face Matthew Stafford was a necessary evil, but it stings nonetheless.  I see a big improvement from the Lions this year provided we see more of 2017/2018 Goff rather than 2021 Goff.

Green Bay Packers

Record in 2021: 13-4-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 10-7-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

Although I disagree, some consider Aaron Rodgers the best to play the game.  You have to wonder though if he’ll remain just as magical without Devante Adams in the fold.  I know he’s played without him before, but going from Devante Adams to Allen Lazard is quite a steep dropoff.  We all have to hope that Christian Watson can replicate even a portion of the production lost from Adams in his reuniting with Derek Carr.

Situation to Watch

I am looking forward to watching Aaron Rodgers play football: plain and simple.  Whether it be his feud with general manager Brian Gutekunst that took headlines in 2020 or his retirement drama that overtook this entire offseason, I’ve had enough.  No more drama, no more storylines, just show us the magic on the field; however that may unfold.

Conclusion

Like I said before, the loss of Devante Adams can’t be understated.  Although the Packers should still win the division next season, it won’t be in the usual juggernaut style that they’ve become accustomed to.  Matt Lafleur will fall well short of his routine 13 win mark and questions will need to be addressed for 2023 and beyond.

Minnesota Vikings

Record in 2021: 8-9-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

Minnesota features one of the best air/ground combo in the entire league.  Dalvin Cook is elite, and while Adam Thielen and KJ Osborne are fantastic, Justin Jefferson is out of this world.  But I can’t help but wonder what has happened to this elite defense last season.  The marque names are still there, but something isn’t gelling anymore.  For any chance in this division, newly anointed defensive coordinator Ed Donatell has his work cut out for him.

Situation to Watch

In a world of incentive based contracts, how was it that Kirk Cousins, of all people, landed a second consecutive fully guaranteed contract?  I’m not saying Cousins is bad, but he’s certainly not on a list of names you’d figure could accomplish the feat.  He has to show more to not be jeered by pundits and fans alike.  This time cannot afford to be a middle of the pack one anymore.

Conclusion

I see yet another 500-ish season for the Vikings.  The talent is there, but the application just isn’t happening.  I also fear that Minnesota just can’t get it done unless they have a different quarterback.  In a world where you have Justin Jefferson, you simply must do whatever you can to utilize his talents to their fullest potential.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

NFC North Best Values

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NFC North Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

One of the biggest issues plaguing fantasy football managers is a lack of knowledge on tough decisions to be made.  Sure, the experienced, knowledgeable and savvy of us out there know what to do or at least have an inkling of what to do moving forward into the off season, but there are many out there who struggle with what to do when the season is done.  This off season, instead of sitting idle or, even worse, making terrible decisions, look for the best possible values to seek out.  The elite options are too expensive and many flier options have too much uncertainty.  Here is a player from each team in the NFC North that should be drafted or traded for due to their substantial dynasty value.

 

Chicago Bears: Tight End – Cole Kmet

Much like Kenneth Gainwell, Cole Kmet is the other player I simply have to acquire everywhere if at all possible.  But even more than Gainwell, Cole Kmet is a must have prize piece as the tight end position is almost as maddening as the kicker, (if you’re crazy enough to play with them).  A great source of frustration for many managers, it’s feast or famine at tight end, save the elite few.  So, finding a tight end at a discount is essential to a fantasy championship caliber team, and I think this rings even truer in dynasty.

It’s glaringly apparent to me, but in case that isn’t ringing true for you, Cole Kmet is arguably the best value in the entire league.  I preached the absolute need to acquire him as the gospel truth in the dynasty dilemma I wrote, if you want more detail.  The situation is perfect, his age is divine and the skill set is incredible, so why isn’t everyone and their mom aching to acquire such a talent?  One main reason is that the average person doesn’t have the knowledge on how to find great tight ends.  The other is the fact that Cole Kmet scored exactly zero touchdowns last season.  Touchdowns are the most volatile statistic in the fantasy game, so take that with a grain of salt.  If you are ever going to listen to my ravings, this is the one you can take to the bank.

 

Detroit Lions: Quarterback – Jared Goff

I don’t believe there are many who are excited about the former first overall pick.  The name Jared Goff doesn’t bring inspiration and desire to most fans, regular and fantasy alike.  And looking at the team overall, it’s not one that most people have penciled in for success.  The problem is that the argument that Jared Goff is trash is simply not logical.  It’s a thought process based entirely on emotion.  Whether you just don’t get excited by the apparent lackluster play or there is some hateful notion from real life fanhood, we have to keep our heads about us as fantasy managers.

It’s quite irrational, because everyone knows just how good of a pass catcher D’Andre Swift is.  Many have him crowned as a top three option in dynasty among running backs.  It’s also no secret just how good TJ Hockenson is.  And many have high hopes for Amon-Ra St. Brown, albeit it’s a mixed jury.  If all are so good, how can the quarterback do so poorly?  Now, I’m not saying that Jared Goff will ever be a bonafide game breaker, but as most people are playing superflex, getting a quarterback, even a number two is not cheap.  There is a chance that Detroit goes after a quarterback in the draft, but even if Goff is only around one more season as a starter, at his price, he’ll do nicely as a temporary fix.  And if he does get traded, he can’t be dead at only 27 years old.

 

Green Bay Packers: Wide Receiver – Amari Rodgers

Since Matt Lafleur came to town, the Green Bay Packers have won 13 games each and every season.  It’s no small feat in today’s NFL to achieve such a standard with parity being what it is.  Moving forward into next season, I’m sure that trend will not continue.  Finding talent on the Packers’ squad in fantasy is not impossible, but most of the talent is priced too highly to get a good value.  Sure, you can go for Aaron Jones as he’s getting older and AJ Dillon is emerging, but in dynasty, we want more of a long term solution if we can help it.

As both Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have moved on from the team, it begs the question as to whom Aaron Rodgers will be throwing to.  I think most have tagged Alan Lazard as the top bet for most targets, but I’m sure Rodgers will be throwing to more than he and Aaron Jones.  So, we have to turn to someone else.  I say, have a little faith in the other A. Rodgers.  Amari Rodgers has done admirably as a kick returner and although he hasn’t seen the opportunity really outside of special teams, he’s the one I’m most excited about.  Any receiver catching from A-Rod is worthy of a gamble.  And even though he’s unproven, this makes Amari Rodgers the best value on the Packers.

 

Minnesota Vikings: Running Back – Alexander Mattison

Much like Chuba Hubbard, Alexander Mattison is stuck behind one of the league’s most elite workhorses.  Dalvin Cook reigns supreme on the ground in Minnesota and I don’t believe he has plans of stopping that trend any time soon.  The Vikings also have who some consider the pass receiving tandem in the league in Justin Jefferson and Adam Theilen.  The depth is also one of the best in the league at wide receiver.  So with so many hurdles to overcome for his success, Alexander Mattison will have a difficult time shining right now.  But in dynasty, however, this situation is ideal for grabbing him at his current value.

Again, similar to Hubbard, Mattison is in a situation where he is behind an oft injured running back.  And Mattison shares another similarity to Hubbard, as Mattison performed well in his time as the temporary starter.  I do see less of a chance of Dalvin Cook’s workload going down, but I also see more of a chance of long term value in such a good system.  While Mattison’s value may not ring true immediately save a Cook injury, the long term potential is too good at his current discounted value.  If you’re looking for value on the Minnesota Vikings, look no further than running back, Alexander Mattison.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Bob Miller’s 2021 NFL Mock Draft

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by Bob Miller

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence (QB - Clemson)

Do I really need to give a reason? He's the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Done.

2. NY Jets - Zach Wilson (QB - BYU)

Wilson's athletic ability, accuracy from the pocket and on the run, and leadership makes him a no brainer here for the Jets.

3. San Francisco 49ers - Justin Fields (QB - Ohio State)

The 49ers play Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray twice a year. They know what kind of a problem that type of quarterback is to defend. San Francisco decides that they need one of those QBs as well.

4. Denver Broncos - Trey Lance (QB - North Dakota State) Trade w/ Atlanta

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a trade! Atlanta trades the 4th pick to the Denver Broncos. After Denver failed to trade for Deshaun Watson, they decide that they won't fail again. They move up to get the their man, a mobile quarterback with a big arm for those cold games. Trey Lance fits that perfectly. Teddy Bridgewater is not their future, Trey Lance is.

5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja’Marr Chase (WR - LSU)

Lots of mock drafts have Oregon LT Penei Sewell going here to the Bengals. Not mine. Ja'Marr Chase is the undisputed #1 wide receiver in this draft. Tackle is deeper is this draft than the past few years. They'll get one in the 2nd or 3rd. Cincinnati just can't pass on the opportunity to reunite Joe Burrow and his favorite WR. 

6. Miami Dolphins - Kyle Pitts (TE - Florida)

The Dolphins are thrilled to get Kyle Pitts. This once in a generation TE talent is just what they need to ensure that Tua Tagovailoa has every opportunity to succeed.

7. New England Patriots - Mac Jones (QB - Alabama) Trade w/ Detroit

We have our 2nd trade of the day! Detroit has been targeting WR Jaylen Waddle here for quite some time, but New England makes an offer that Detroit can't refuse. The Patriots get their guy! Jones needs the right situation to be successful in the NFL. What better situation to be in than being coached by Bill Belichick.

8. Carolina Panthers - Penei Sewell (LT - Oregon)

Sewell has dropped far enough. Carolina is in desperate need of a LT. Sewell starts day one and is the staple of their offensive line for the next decade.

9. Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Surtain II (CB - Alabama)

Defense is the priority for Atlanta. They traded back from pick #4 knowing that they were going to get one of the best corners available. They just happen to land the absolute best corner in this year's draft.

10. Dallas Cowboys - Jaycee Horn (CB - South Carolina)

Dallas fans are left disappointed after Patrick Surtain II gets sniped the pick before them. With cornerback being a major priority they take the best corner available. Horn is fast, physical, and will step in and start day one.

11. NY Giants - Jaelan Phillips (EDGE - Miami)

Phillips is arguably the most talented edge rusher in this class. He has had some injuries but is absolutely worth taking at pick #11. He will fill the void needed since Jason Pierre-Paul left years ago.

12. Philadelphia Eagles - Devonta Smith (WR - Alabama)

A dream come true for Philadelphia Eagles fans. They are in dire need for a WR, so what better than the unstoppable Heisman Trophy Winner. He is a bit undersized, but he's played that way his entire career. Congrats to Jaylen Hurts on getting a shiny new toy.

13. LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater (LT - Northwestern)

Los Angeles failed to land LT Orlando Brown Jr. from the Ravens. They didn't want to give what Baltimore was asking, because they knew they could land their franchise LT in this draft. Slater will be a very good left tackle in the NFL protecting Justin Herbert's blind side for years to come.

14. Minnesota Vikings - Kwity Paye (EDGE - Michigan)

Minnesota doesn’t have a second-round pick this year, so trading back is definitely a possibility. Adding a pass-rusher with this type of agility and strength opposite of Danielle Hunter may be just too hard to pass up.

15. Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle (WR - Alabama)

How about that. Detroit trades back with the hopes that Waddle would still be available, and he is. Waddle is a weapon that Detroit will use in many different ways. With the loss of Kenny Golladay via free agency, Waddle will targeted early and often.

16. Arizona Cardinals - Caleb Farley (CB - Virginia Tech)

With a glaring hole in the secondary left by Patrick Peterson, Arizona has to walk out of the first two rounds with a CB. Farley would have been a top-10 pick, but has fallen a bit due to the back injury concerns. Arizona believes that the reward outweighs the risk here.

17. Las Vegas Raiders - Micah Parsons (LB - Penn State)

This just makes too much sense. The Raiders need major help at linebacker, and Parsons is the best LB in this draft. Character issues prevents Parsons from being taken in the top 10, but that's not a concern for GM Mike Mayock. Jon Gruden may hurt himself running to the phone to call in this pick.

18. Miami Dolphins - Azeez Ojulari (EDGE - Georgia)

Azeez Ojulari is an edge defender with incredible speed and explosiveness. His upside is just to good for Miami to pass up.

19.Washington - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB - Notre Dame)

Washington is very thin at LB. JOK is an extremely fast linebacker that can line up against slot receivers and deliver a big pop to outside runs. This combined with his leadership makes this a big get for the Football Team.

20. Chicago Bears - Christian Darrisaw (LT - Virginia Tech)

Chicago considers going with WR Rashod Bateman here, but LT is a bigger need for the Bears. Darrisaw is a top tier OT, and is too good of a value here to pass up. Chicago can grab a WR in the next couple of rounds.

21. Indianapolis Colts - Alijah Vera-Tucker (OT – USC)

Left Tackle is by far the biggest need for the Colts, and Vera-Tucker is a versatile, athletic, and strong lineman that can line up anywhere. That won't matter as the Colts will plug him in at LT immediately.

22. Tennessee Titans - Rashod Bateman (WR - Minnesota)

The Titans "had" 2 major needs: Pass rush and wide receiver. They addressed the pass rushing need via free agency by signing Bud Dupree and Denico Autry. Now they need to replace the hole at WR with Corey Davis leaving for New York. They get a solid replacement in Rashod Bateman.

23. NY Jets - Greg Newsome (CB- Northwestern)

Cornerback is a major weakness for the Jets. Head Coach Robert Saleh is going to be thrilled that he lands a talent such as Newsome here.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Gregory Rousseau (EDGE - Miami)

Pittsburgh has to replace EDGE with the loss of Bud Dupree. Rousseau is an absolute freak. He is 6'6/260 and has incredible reach. He has tremendous length for the position, and he's still building out his frame. He is still a little raw, but his upside is amazing.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig (S - TCU)

The best safety in this draft falls to the team that needs him the most. Jacksonville can use quite a bit of help on defense, and they get it here. Moehrig has great acceleration and closes on the ball quickly. He's a playmaker that Jacksonville desperately needs.

26. Cleveland Browns - Zaven Collins (LB - Tulsa)

Collins is a big, physical, and mobile linebacker that covers the middle of the field. He is fantastic against the run, which Cleveland will need to help them get over the hump against teams like Baltimore. He fills a need for Cleveland.

27. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Tryon (EDGE - Washington)

Baltimore has 3 holes to fill: EDGE, OT, and WR. Joe Tryon has elite upside as a pass rusher and will make an immediate impact for the Ravens. He opted out of the 2020 season, but his 2019 tape is fantastic. He has the potential to produce double digit sacks his rookie year in that Baltimore defense.

28. New Orleans Saints - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB - Florida State)

We all know about the Saints' salary cap situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans trade back here, but their secondary is the top priority. They are in bad shape behind Marshon Lattimore, so drafting Samuel here makes all the sense in the world.

29. Green Bay Packers - Terrace Marshall (WR - LSU)

It's no secret that Green Bay needs help at WR behind Davante Adams. Marshall has size, speed, and great hands. He is a big target that is a mismatch for opposing corners. He will be a welcomed addition to the Packers offense.

30. Buffalo Bills - Joseph Ossai (EDGE - Texas)

I almost went with Najee Harris here, but EDGE is a bigger need for this team. They can get a RB in the next rounds. Ossai has a high motor and  high upside. He has great size and a very strong lower body. He is built for the NFL, and should be a solid EDGE defender that the Bills need.

31. Baltimore Ravens - Teven Jenkins (OT - Oklahoma State)

The Ravens were really hoping that Rashod Bateman or Terrace Marshall would fall to them here, but unfortunately that doesn't happen.  Rumor is the Ravens are shopping this pick. I'm 50/50 on the them trading back, because they already have 9 picks. With that being said they draft Teven Jenkins, a big, nasty RT with incredible size and strength. He's an elite pass protector and a fantastic run blocker. He fits right in where Orlando Brown left off.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jayson Oweh (EDGE - Penn State)

Jason Pierre-Paul isn't getting any younger, and Oweh will be a great replacement when the time comes. He has a ton of talent but has a bit to learn. He lands in the perfect situation in Tampa. He can be a situational player for now and learn from two great pass rushers in JPP and Shaq Barrett.

 

I want to give a special thanks to @McManusDesigns, @SwapKingdom, @SchapDesign, @Golden.GRFX, @SnaggyGFX, and @DesignedbyFranco for the awesome jersey swaps!

You can follow me on twitter at @BaltimoreBobFF

 

 

The 2nd Year Running Back Comparison

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The 2nd Year Running Back Comparison

By Alex French

It's finally here! The 2021 NFL season is officially underway. The draft is about a month away. Those not-so-free agents are able to sign with teams, and it's time to dig into our research to decide which players to target, as well as avoid during draft season. Considering the perceived scarcity at running back, I think it’s only appropriate  we discuss a few. With draft season in full swing, I’ll be focused on some rookies from the last draft class. More specifically, I want to focus on D’Andre Swift and  JK Dobbins. Just for good measure, I’m going to include another who has been quite polarizing of late, James Robinson.

D’Andre Swift; Detroit Lions 

Selected with the 3rd overall pick of the second round in the 2020 NFL draft, Swift perhaps didn’t have the most exciting landing spot. However, a case can be made that he made his presence known right away. In his first game, he was on the field for over 40% of the team’s plays. That number isn’t eye-popping, however, he saw immediate usage in the red zone with 2 opportunities. That is uncommon for rookies. Swift had only 6 games where he was on the field for more than 50% of the Lions offensive plays. Yet, in his limited work, he managed to get 26 red zone opportunities, converting on 10 of them. That’s good for a %38.5 conversion rate. Perhaps equally as important, Swift was heavily used in the passing game. Over the season, he was targeted 57 times, catching 46 of them.

As a team, the Lions scored 45 touchdowns last season, which was 16th best in the league. In the offseason, they traded Matthew Stafford to the Rams for Jared Goff. The Lions also let Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones sign with other teams. With this in mind, it's reasonable to project less touchdown opportunities for the Lions. The change to Goff should still mean targets for Swift though. In 2019, Todd Gurley had 49 targets from Goff, showing his willingness to check it down to his running back. With the losses at receiver, Swift also may be asked to move into the slot on occasion. Should that happen, his 1.11 fantasy points per touch should rise even higher in 2021. That mark was the highest of the players I looked at for this exercise.

Projection

160 carries, 804 rush yards, 55 receptions, 253 rec yards, and 9 total touchdowns

JK Dobbins; Baltimore Ravens 

Like Swift, Dobbins was selected in the second round of the NFL draft. Also like Swift, Dobbins had just 6 games where he was on the field for more than 50% of plays. Unlike Swift though, Dobbins was hardly used in the passing game, seeing just 24 targets. However, Dobbins managed to make the most of his opportunities. Dobbins  averaged 6 yards per touch and evaded 47 tackles. He led the league in percentage of runs over 10 yards, as well as true yards per carry, which factors in the offensive line. Dobbins accounted for 9 total touchdowns last season on 28 red zone opportunities.

Looking at opportunity and production, Swift outperformed Dobbins in the touchdown efficiency department. A case can be made that Swift’s use in the passing game is the reason. However, to illustrate the efficiency Dobbins had running the ball, he averaged just .07 points per touch less than Swift with 1.04 on the season. Yet, it cannot go without saying that Dobbins has a quarterback who also takes away red zone touches. Lamar Jackson ran the ball 159 times last season adding 7 touchdowns. The Ravens also decided to let Mark Ingram leave for Houston, which could mean slightly more carries for Dobbins. However, a lack of targets means he will have to have Derrick Henry type usage, which is unlike the Ravens. That being said, Dobbins should still provide value due to his efficiency.

Projection

155 carries, 965 rush yards, 20 receptions, 130 rec yards, and 10 total touchdowns

James Robinson; Jacksonville Jaguars

Unlike Swift and Dobbins, Robinson had quite a different path to the NFL. As an undrafted free agent, Robinson forced his way onto the field and ran away with the job. Commanding 85% of the team’s opportunities, he made his presence felt. Out of this list, Robinson is the only player with more than 200 touches. He had 289. Robinson averaged 0.83 points per touch, which is impressive considering most of it came as rushing attempts. He accounted for 10 total touchdowns last season, more than a third of the team total.

With the Jaguars expected to improve in all phases of the game this year, they should see a touchdown increase, as well as increase the number of rush attempts from the 5th fewest in the NFL.  In free agency, the Jaguars added Carlos Hyde as a veteran presence. If Healthy, he should help make Robinson even more efficient. Robinson managed to evade  79 tackles, which was 5th best in the league. The offensive line should improve with another year together to provide more optimism heading into 2021 for Robinson. Given the current situation in Jacksonville, I like Robinson heading into next year.

Projection

255 carries, 1163 rush yards, 50 receptions, 239 rec yards, and 10 total touchdowns 

Looking at these numbers and projections, it appears James Robinson is my favorite of the three. I am actually surprised at this myself. With Jamaal Williams joining Swift in the Detroit backfield, Swift could lose some of the passing game work that provides such upside. As an example of the value of receptions, here’s two players. Player 1 had 264 total touches for 1092 yards and 10 touchdowns. Player 2 had 152 touches for 862 yards and 7 touchdowns. Player 1 is Kenyon Drake. In general, most would say he underwhelmed last season. Player 2 was Nyheim Hines. In PPR leagues, Hines outscored Drake by 1 point. 193.2-192.2. With this in mind, Dobbins would need 13 to 18 carries with nearly all the goal line work to offer similar upside to Swift and Robinson. With how the Ravens have played since Lamar Jackson became the starter, no single running back has had more than 230 touches in a season (Mark Ingram 2019). Swift will now likely share passing down work with Jamaal Williams, hurting his value. Of course the Jaguars can still add competition for Robinson in the draft, but as things currently lie, I’ll take Robinson followed by Swift then Dobbins.

 

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NFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Welcome back! We now head North as we finish our tour of the NFC! This division will revolve around one primary theme: QB quality. But before we travel North, below is the foundation of the team breakdown by division series.

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Green Bay Packers

I believe a team’s overall fantasy outlook begins with the QB. Aaron Rodgers makes this offense a BUY. He is still among the league’s best and his presence can open up the running game which will open up throwing lanes which will open up the running game which will open up the throwing…Rodgers is good!

QB Aaron Rodgers: Low-QB1, 3-4% auction, round 10, Rodgers continues to be a QB1 IRL and for fantasy. Since I believe a team’s overall fantasy outlook begins with the QB, I will be getting him a lot if his ADP stays where it is. I love him in the Key & Peele sketch but I love him more on the field and on my rosters.

RB Aaron Jones: RB2 14-15% auction, late round 2, Jones exploded with 19 TDs last year. I see that number going down enough to benefit Rodgers more but still not enough to have me shy away from drafting him. Lead back in a good offense, should have plenty of scoring upside, QB play open will open up running game.

RB AJ Dillon: RB 5, 3-4% auction, round 13, Packers drafted him in the 2nd, raised some eye brows at the time, but this thicc and highly productive college RB is a backup worth rostering. His thighs have been the highlight of GB training camp…can we please get to the games already?!

RB Jamaal Williams: RB 5-6, deep PPR target, $1, last round/priority FA, has been productive when given the chance, this now crowded backfield, mainly made up of Dillon’s thighs, now hurts Williams upside a bit. Worth keeping an eye on!

WR Davante Adams: WR1, 20-21% auction, late round 1-early round 2, this target machine will continue to have Rodgers’ eye. Easy to imagine that he can lead the NFL in targets.

WR Allen Lazard: WR 5, 1-2% auction, round 14, as of now I believe he is the clear WR2, and amazing upside can be had if he is the bottom of your bench. At that cost you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. WR-Marquez Valdes-Scantling, priority FA, has flashed but should only be rostered in the deepest of leagues right now.

TE Jace Sternberger: TE2, $1 deep auction, priority FA, this breakout candidate is now healthy and longer in Jimmy Graham’s shadow. Keep an eye out!

Detroit Lions

The QB theme is clear in this division: if the QB has (or doesn’t have) real life and fantasy upside then I am targeting (fading) those players. The Lions remain NEUTRAL with Stafford leading the way with a very nice duo of WRs, a TE on the rise, and a backfield with upside.

QB Matthew Stafford, QB1, 3% auction, round 10-11, huge arm and nice weapons is a nice cocktail for fantasy intrigue. Best ball target!

RB D’Andre Swift: RB 3, 7-8% auction, round 7 is ideal, at one point in time Swift could have been considered the top RB prospect of his class. If you are a believer, you will be happy to see the dynamic group he was drafted with push down his value. Questions of committee usage linger. Difference maker in college, he could really boom with Stafford

RB Kerryon Johnson: RB4, 5-6% auction, round 9, looking to be splitting duties with Swift; Kerryon limitations have nothing to do with his talent but everything with his game day availability. I’m excited to get one of the two on my rosters!

WRs Kenny Golladay: (WR1, 16-17% auction, round 3) and Marvin Jones (WR3, 5-6% auction, round 8) are an excellent duo! I’m happy to roster either one. Golladay looks to further excel his gameplay and Jones is always a deep ball and TD threat, I’d be aggressive with him in Best Ball. WR Amendola deep PPR league target.

TE TJ Hockenson: High-TE2 with TE1 upside, 2-3% auction, round 13, he would be a full on TE1 if his ankle concerns weren’t lingering, but they are. Tons of upside but I would look to draft or stream another TE if he isn’t 100% to start the year. He may be fine still but would exercise caution.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings continue to play as an “old school” team. Gary Kubiak is the new OC and with a young TE on the rise and adding a 1st round WR, the Vikings are a Neutral offensive core with players primarily draftable at ADP. 2 Ladder Picks incoming…

QB Kirk Cousins: QB2 priority FA, $1 deep auction, the QB position is so deep that Cousins is undraftable in 12 team standard rule leagues. Having nice weapons in a good offensive make him intriguing as a bye week/injury replacement.

RB Dalvin Cook: “Ladder Pick” RB1, 25-27% auction, round 1, Dalvin is my RB4 and 4th overall player. The Vikings offense will go through him as HC Mike Zimmer look to run the ball, play good defense and limit TOs with efficient passing (like with passes to Cook). Volume!

RB Alexander Mattison: RB4-5, 2-3%, round 12, Dalvin Cook’s injury history made Mattison an extremely appealing asset in drafts last year. Cook kept him irrelevant. If Cook were to miss time he is the backup worth rostering.

WR Adam Thielen: “Ladder Pick”, WR1, 16-17% auction, round 3, one of my favorite players now stands alone as the top dog in this receiver corps. He will be an absolute target machine. OC Gary Kubiak has a stout history of feeding his WR1 targets. Volume!

WR Justin Jefferson: WR 4-5, 2-3% auction, the Vikings 1st round pick looks to fill big shoes with Stefon Diggs out of town. He comes into the season with a chip on his shoulder from the NFL draft being vocal about his displeasure becoming the 5th WR drafted. He will look to make the teams who passed on him sorry. Vikings got a steal and now have a highly motivated player. Buy!

TE Irv Smith Jr.: TE2, priority FA for starter injury/bye week replacement, Big buy for dynasty, TE Kyle Rudolph is still around, keep an eye out in deep leagues

Chicago Bears

In the NFL QB is king, so this offensive core will be a FADE for me this season. QB play limitations and a good defense could be a recipe for QB game managers and controlling the clock. Of course this is an over-generalization but Trusbisky under center doesn’t excite me.

QB Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles: We aren’t drafting these QBs, but I prefer Nick Foles to Trubisky at this point of their careers. I really like the idea of Mitch Trubisky but inconsistent execution has soured his outlook.

This is a shame because he has a nice duo of WRs in Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller, and unique Swiss Army knife in Tarik Cohen that have their potential capped. These players are preferred with Foles under center.

RB David Montgomery: Low-RB2 (robust WR or elite TE), high-RB3, 10-12% auction, round 6, disappointing rookie campaign has lowered his cost, post-hype sleeper with upside. If he is your RB2, I would make RB a priority for the next 2-3 rounds after drafting him. Fingers crossed for a more efficient season.

RB Tarik Cohen: Low-RB3 while going robust WR, 5-6% auction, round 9, this zeroRB target is best utilized in PPR formats. A very unique player that has great pass catching upside.

WR Allen Robinson: Low-WR1, high-WR2, 13-14%, round 3, love the player, amazing talent, but has terrible QBs throwing him the ball for his entire career, including this year. Highly preferable to have Foles be the one throwing him the ball.

He is essentially QB proof but considering the other WRs that are drafted around him, I typically look elsewhere. He is exceptional but the offense is a FADE that is why I prefer to get him at a value rather than at ADP.

WR Anthony Miller: WR4-5, 3-4% auction, round 12, an excellent complimentary receiver opposite Robinson, a great value late in drafts being an offenses’ 2nd WR. He is one of the first players I look to add into my draft queue.

The Bears are a team with 27 TEs (only 7, actually) and none of them draftable. Cole Kmet is an intriguing prospect for dynasty. Old TE favorite Jimmy Graham is worth keeping on your radar especially if Nick Foles is the QB.