Deshaun Watson

Replacing Watson

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Replacing Watson

By Joseph Goodwin

Now that we know there is a 6 game suspension for Deshaun Watson (which appears he will accept), how do fantasy managers proceed in drafting Watson?

First of all, be prepared for any draft that is about to happen, that the Watson stock is going to skyrocket.  I anticipate seeing Watson’s value rise to a low end QB 1 in the next few days; QB 10 or higher off the board.

If you are targeting Watson as your long term QB 1, before drafting your short term starter, consider the following:

Risk Aversion Level 1-3 (you want little risk)

You need a viable QB 1.  You cannot throw away half your season waiting for Watson to return.  You will need a legitimate starting quarterback to maintain a 4-2 or 5-1 pace to start the season.  Going 3-3 (or worse) does not bode well for your playoff chances in a 12 game regular season.  Instead, I would target the likes of : Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, or Aaron Rodgers. These choices are safe, reliable starting QB 1’s, but may require an investment earlier in drafts to secure than the scenarios below.  

Risk Aversion Level 4-6 (you don’t mind some risk)

You need a viable QB 1, but have a little more room for volatility.  In this scenario, you may be able to wait a tad longer on your QB 1 and target Kirk Cousins or Matthew Stafford.  Each QB will provide stable, fantasy point production through game 6 until Watson returns.  This scenario allows you to spend more of your early round draft capital on RB, WR to maximize your team’s scoring potential.  I excluded Derek Carr from this group due to his week 6 bye. This plan gives you an extra round or two from the 12 game plan to add depth to your other starting positions.

Threat Level Midnight

This option provides the most opportunity to swing for the fences and can include players like: Tua Tagovaiola, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence.  This plan offers the chance to load up on RB, WR, and TE; with a potential start: RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, WR, RB, WR before even thinking about the QB position. This plan can be a huge upside play.  A manager can plan on having Watson for 7 games before the playoffs, with the hopes of Tua, Justin, or Trevor provide adequate early season production to keep the team at 3-3 before Deshaun returns.

In all of these scenarios, Watson returning for game 7 against the Ravens should be the start to high end fantasy production from all of your starting positions.

My favorite among these scenarios is Matthew Stafford.  He provides solid QB play with a small amount of risk. My second favorite is Tua Tagovailoa.  Tua offers a solid 6 week opening and the added bonus of playing the Bears during Watson’s bye week.

In any of these scenarios, your risk tolerance and early round build are crucial to how you approach what QB to pair with Watson.  

Deshaun Watson could very well be a league winner if you find the proper compliment at QB.

Know your settings, schedule, and evaluate your tolerance to volatility in making this decision.

And win that title!

Dynasty Dilemma: Deshaun Watson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Deshaun Watson

By Alex French

 

It's St. Patrick's Day, and I’m enjoying a nice cold beverage when I hear the familiar chime of a notification. It’s being reported that the Cleveland Browns are out of the running for Deshaun Watson. Fast forward 24 hours, and Watson has signed a shiny new 5 year/$230 million, fully guaranteed contract. Watson has waived his no-trade clause, and shifted the future of the Browns. Let’s discuss the impact that matters most. The fantasy impact.

 

Reasons to Buy

 

Elite Talent

The last time we saw Watson, he had a career high 33 touchdown passes on 544 attempts. Last year the Cleveland Browns had 520 team pass attempts. It’s reasonable to expect that number to hover closer to the 544 range we saw last from Watson in 2020. A fully guaranteed $230 million should provide evidence. If we can project near 550 pass attempts, 4500 passing yards is within the range of outcomes. Using the league average touchdown rate of 4.5%,  that’s roughly 25 touchdown passes. That mark would be the lowest of Watson’s career disregarding his injury shortened rookie season, so look for that number to be closer to 30. Watson also averaged 470 rushing yards in his three full seasons as the starter in Houston. Pair that with the average of 5 rushing touchdowns per season, and we have fantasy gold. That’s nearly 80 additional fantasy points just from the rushing upside of Watson. This is precisely the upside we want from our fantasy QB1, but there’s more excitement to the fit … the weapons surrounding him in Cleveland.

 

Elite Surrounding Cast

Just a few days ago, the Browns made headlines by adding Amari Cooper from the Cowboys. Cooper has a skill set that compliments Watson perfectly. Cooper is an excellent route runner with good speed and separation. They should create an exciting combination to watch, and Watson has a history of heavily targeting his number 1 receiver. Think DeAndre Hopkins and his 140+ targets per season.. Perhaps more interestingly though, Watson will get to experience something he never had in Houston, a good run game. Nick Chubb is an explosive running back defenses have to respect. This should help Watson improve passing efficiency  utilizing play-action. Furthermore, Watson will also be playing behind the best offensive line of his career. 

 

 

Reasons to Sell

 

Possible Suspension

With new weapons, one of the best offensive lines in the league, and  an explosive run game,  what’s not to like about Deshaun Watson this season. Perhaps a lingering suspension you ask. We haven’t seen Watson on the football field since the 2020 season. He sat out the entire 2021 NFL season due to sexual misconduct allegations filed by 22 plaintiffs. On March 10th, a grand jury determined there is insufficient evidence to charge him criminally. However, there are still civil suits to resolve. The NFL is also expected to conduct their own investigation. Most believe this will result in a suspension for Watson. The true question is of course how long. This will be news to keep watching for. 

Massive Haul

Imagine what you could get right now if you were to trade Deshaun Watson...especially in a SuperFlex league.  If you are a rebuilding team that owns Watson shares, you could get majorly compensated if you were to deal him to a team that is looking to compete now. This is where it’s important to assess your team's risk factor. If your team is built to compete for a fantasy championship now, you may be willing to withstand a few games without Watson knowing you should have him for crunch time in the late season and playoffs. Conversely, if your team is rebuilding and not yet ready to compete, Watson is a great acquisition to make. For the team in a rebuild, Watson missing games this season is unimportant. Watson is now locked in with Cleveland for the next 5 years. Cleveland made him a long term commitment, and has the tools in place to help him find success for the Browns, and your fantasy team. 

 

 

Be sure to check out the rest of our great content on Dynastyprosfootball.com and follow me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

Dynasty Dilemma: Deshaun Watson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Deshaun Watson

by Tim Lazenby

 

Over the past two seasons, one of the biggest question marks in the National Football League was Deshaun Watson.  A rare blend of elite passing, rushing threat and vision, the Houston Texans quarterback has often been on the tip of everyone’s tongues.

 

The Reason to Sell

There’s only a handful of quarterbacks who can do what Deshaun Watson does.  Is he going to pass? Is he going to rush?  No matter what, he’s one of the few that is a constant worry for defenders to change a game script on the spot.  But is it enough?

 

Time away from the game

This issue is not even on the top of most people’s worries, and even forgotten for some, but time away from the game is no easy hurdle to overcome.  It’s a rarity to see a player absent from the game, only to come back and succeed instantly.  It takes time to work up to the professional level, let alone stand on the mountaintop at his position.

 

Current Reality Today

Before all the allegations, which are obviously troublesome, he was clearly unhappy with his organization.  Nothing but turmoil and drama surrounded he and the Texans and demands of a trade were at the forefront.  Hard to trust such a situation with your dynasty cornerstone.  Add to that the legal battle, and the situation is murky indeed.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

Looking at the talent alone, can we really ignore the opportunity to snatch up this gun slinging, speedster from Clemson?  It’s simply impossible to ignore his abilities.  In dynasty, the quarterback is your foundation, and the competition is slim.

 

Dual Threat Ability

I can list on one hand the number of quarterbacks in the league who have the rushing upside that Deshaun does.  And to find one who isn’t injured, old or just a rusher becomes an even shorter list.  It doesn’t hurt that he’s never been cheaper either.  If you can name someone else like him at his current pricepoint, I’d call you a liar.

 

Team Investment

Despite all the drama, whether it be legal or trade demands, the Texans refused to ship him off for even a penny less than what he’s worth.  There are also a number of other teams chomping at the bit, just for a chance to dream about having Watson steer their ship.  Houston even had him sit all year rather than trade him for something and that says a lot more to me about his value in this league.

 

Verdict

Fun fact: In my home league, in Watson’s rookie year, I traded him straight up for Antonio Brown.  Brown went on to get 19 points per game in PPR formats, which would have landed him second last year behind only Cooper Kupp.  Watson got injured, and I was still happy to have the franchise QB.  This is how valuable Deshaun Watson is.

 

But, despite how valuable Watson is, at just 26 years old, there is simply too much murkiness to hold any longer.  An entire year of fantasy value was lost.  If I were able to get even close to what’s he’s worth, it’s a simple transaction.  Not knowing the substantial legal outcomes is scary enough, but we don’t even know where he’ll play.

 

AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Continuing our journey through the AFC we head south with the, wait for it, AFC South. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a new QB, amazing O line, stout RB and WR groups, and HC Frank Reich. This offensive core is NEUTRAL, gladly targeting without reaching.

QB Phillip Rivers: QB2, priority FA, QB is too deep of a position to be drafting Rivers but always worth to keep a close eye on an established veteran with a strong supporting cast!

RB Jonathon Taylor: Low-RB2, ideal RB3, 10-12% auction, round 4, Jonathon Taylor feels a lot like Ezekiel Elliot’s rookie year. Great offensive live, in the mix with veteran RB prescence, drafted highly, studs in college, and could be a fantasy 1st rounder as a sophomore. Love him, think he will be special!

RBs Marlon Mack: (RB4, 3-4% auction, round 9) and Nyheim Hines (zeroRB and PPR target, RB5-6, 1-2% auction, round 13) are in the mix for splitting the workload. It would be wise to invest in this backfield!

WR TY Hilton: Low-WR2, ideal WR3, 6-7% auction, round 6, I think this best ball target is being a little undervalued with his cost, big upside! I think Rivers will look for him often!

WR Michael Pittman (priority FA, deep league end of bench WR) and Parris Campbell (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14) are great complimentary pieces with TY Hilton. Both being big upside potential. The more I think about it the more I think this entire offense is undervalued!

TE Jack Doyle (TE2, borderline undraftable) and Trey Burton (priority FA, if Doyle misses time) will be more exciting options if a WR would miss time. Always best to keep an eye out for players in a good offense like this one!

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were certainly remembered for their playoff run last season. Nice bit of career redemption for Ryan Tannehill and monster efforts from Derrick Henry and AJ Brown were very exciting to see! The Titans are NEUTRAL with fair ADP all around.

QB Ryan Tannehill: QB2, priority FA, glad to see him do well on this team, struggling with injuries in Miami, it is always good to see a player full potential on display, I hope he can keep it up!

RB Derrick Henry: RB1, 20-22% auction, round 1, a big stock riser for me over the course of the summer, I now have him solidified as my RB6 and 6th overall player in all formats. This king of volume looks to repeat his success with little competition behind him.

RB Darryton Evans: RB6, $1 deep auction, intriguing prospect lands in a great situation. Pass-catching upside is there!

WR AJ Brown: Low-WR1 (robust RB with elite TR), ideal WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4, he had a truly amazing rookie season being a YAC monster, but questions of statistical sustainability linger. He is the top dog in town. Buy!

WR Corey Davis: (priority FA) has potential for opportunity, he just hasn’t done much with it so far. I’m fading until proven otherwise. Opportunity and talent remain bit I want to see it consistently come together before I get on my roster.

TE Jonnu Smith: TE2, $1 deep auction, round 14 if TE waiting has gone out of control. This TE on the rise certainly has plenty of opportunity with Delanie Walker out of town. Perhaps I’m too low on him but other TE options are more exciting to me. Worth drafting for sure! If he doesn’t pan out, TE is super deep.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a FADE, every player has value at a certain price, almost all of them I will be targeting only if at a bargain. Looming loses seems likely but week to week value can still be had.

QB Gardner Minshew: A national treasure, full of Chuck Norris energy! Or did Chuck Norris (RIP) have Gardner Minshew energy? Hmmm. Anyway, the only way I’m drafting him in standard rule leagues is with the Bud Light sweepstakes in mind. Have I mentioned that he is a national treasure?! Fun guy on a bad team, I’d rather not count on garbage time points.

RB Ryquell Armstead, Devine Ozigbo, and Chris Thompson: After the release of Leonard Fournette, can one of these guys return fantasy value?  We always want to keep players on our radars, but in this case I’m gonna let the radar blip. If Chris Thompson can stay on the field he has legitimate pass catching upside. Deep PPR target.

WR DJ Chark: WR2, 6-7%, late-4th/early-5th, Nope, not going sing it, can’t do it, let’s not get that song stuck in your head, I won’t do that to you my valued reader. He had a glorious breakout season, and was garbage time proof! Focal point of the offense! Call Me Maybe...ha

WR Dede Westbrook (deep PPR target, priority FA) and WR Lavishka Shenault (priority FA, deep end of bench stash) are still intriguing in the way that fantasy points can still be had in this offense, especially with the passing game if they are trailing in games.

TE Tyler Eifert: low TE2, priority FA, always has upside when he is healthy, his journey in the NFL has been rough, always flashed but has overcome some brutal injuries. Rooting for the guy, keep an eye out!

Houston Texans

HC (and GM?) Bill O’Brien has made some “interesting” off season decisions... new faces include David Johnson and Brandin cooks but franchise WR DeAndre Hopkins is gone. Deshaun Watson alone makes this team full of NEUTRAL targets.

QB Deshaun Watson: QB1, 5% auction, round 7, rushing upside while surrounded by nice weapons continues to make him an attractive QB! This fantasy friendly offense is likely to find themselves in shoot-outs with Watson being the prime beneficiary!

RB David Johnson: “Ladder Pick”, RB2 12-13% auction, round 4, I was very happy to see that I am higher on him than the market is. Could see a lot of touches, some worry remains about what he is able to do with them. I’m ok taking that risk with a player with his inherent upside.

RB Duke Johnson: Low-RB4, zeroRB and PPR target, I wish he would be implemented more because he is a unique talent with great pass-catching ability. Houston could find themselves in some shoot-outs. Best ball target!

WR Will Fuller: Low-WR3/high-WR4, 5-6% auction, round 7, only worry is health, but when healthy the Sky is the literal limit! QB-WR Continuity will be key is the season! I’d be aggressive targeting him in Best ball!

WR Brandin Cooks: Low-WR3 (robust EB with elite TE), ideal WR4, on his 4th team now starting his 7th season, he has proven to be new location proof. Houston can put up some serious offensive numbers. PPR target!

WR Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb: Priority FAs in a good offense. Should become wildly relevant if Fuller/Cooks were to miss time!

Houston, We DON’T Have a Problem.

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Houston, We DON'T Have a Problem.

By Matt Kelley 

Oh Houston, what have you done?...And by Houston, I mean Bill O’Brien.

The Texans added the title of ‘general manager’ to the duties of O’Brien in January of this year, and he’s been very active. Last year, it seemed like O’Brien was already running the show from the GM office even though it wasn’t official. The Texans moved a number of draft picks for left tackle Laremy Tunsil, and traded star pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney before last season began.

Ok, that’s cool.

Since officially becoming GM, O’Brien has removed wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who had at least 1,000 receiving yards every year since 2014, except 2016 (the Tom Savage, Brock Osweiler, and Brandon Weeden QB season...understandable). In the trade for Hopkins, the Texans acquired running back David Johnson (the Texans took on his entire salary) from the Arizona Cardinals along with draft compensation. O’Brien then shopped the 57th overall pick in this year's draft for WR Brandin Cooks from the Los Angeles Rams. The Texans continued to try to bolster their WR depth by signing free agent Randall Cobb to a three year deal.

Need a flow chart yet?

All of that said, for all of O’Brien’s wheeling and dealing, the Texans still have Deshaun Watson at QB, and he’s practically the only reason Texans fans have any sanity left.

Yada, yada, yada...

What does all of this mean for Watson and your fantasy squad? He’s been a perennial fantasy stud the last two seasons, and I’m here to tell you that isn’t about to change. Do not press the panic button. 

Watson is an outlier: 

Deshaun Watson, mercifully for Texans fans and delightfully for fantasy managers, took over the Texans QB job in 2017. Although his season was cut short by an ACL injury, in his seven starts he had 21 total touchdowns, and the Texans knew they had something special. In 2018, Watson accounted for 31 total TD’s to only nine interceptions and added 551 rushing yards. Last season, Watson again accounted for more than 30 total TD’s, 12 INT’s, and another 400 plus yards on the ground, leading him to an overall QB4 finish in the season for fantasy (15 starts).

Perhaps the most impressive part is that Watson put up these numbers on around 500 pass attempts in each of the last two seasons. Simply put, Watson is an outlier. Watson’s passing TD% over the last two seasons has been 5.1% and 5.3%, respectively. Only Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, and Patrick Mahomes finished both 2018 and 2019 with a passing TD% over 5%, along with Watson. Pretty good company. Of that group, only Tannehill (23 starts), Brees (26 starts), and Wilson (started every game) had fewer pass attempts than Watson. 

Watson has to do MORE: 

Asking Watson to produce more is a pretty big ask, but he’s simply going to have to do so. The departure of WR Deandre Hopkins can’t be understated. New addition WR Brandin Cooks has four seasons over 1,000 receiving yards. Randall Cobb has one season (2014) of such a mark. After that, no pass catcher on the Texans has surpassed the 1,000 yard receiving mark. While that sounds daunting, Cooks, Will Fuller, and Kenny Stills all represent deep threats. Stills ranked 7th in yards per target, Fuller 18th, and Cooks 49th (though he was 9th in 2018). Watson’s deep ball completion percentage was at 42%, which was good enough to rank him at 7th overall.

Watson has taken 106 sacks over the last two seasons. Part of that has been the offensive line and part of that has been the learning curve of getting rid of the ball quickly. The addition of LT Laremy Tunsil helped remarkably last season as he only allowed a pressure once every 28 snaps per Pro Football Focus. Tunsil also led the league in penalties (20, playoffs included). Penalties, and at best, average offensive line play at the other positions is likely to create a pronounced opportunity for Watson to use his legs and extend plays. Watson has proven he can take off and run. With these deep threat receivers, he’ll need to buy time to chuck it down the field. 

Dynasty outlook: 

Watson is still a top five fantasy QB. He’ll only be 25 years old at the start of the season, and while his ceiling isn’t that of Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson right now, he’s still an elite talent and a difference maker at the position. A lot of fantasy managers have Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and even Russell Wilson ahead of Watson in their ranks. While I wouldn’t fault anyone for deciding on those players over Watson...they all have their own arguments...Watson is as much of a consistent, solid value that you can hope to find within this draft range.

If there’s a league mate that is down on Watson’s value because of his surrounding cast, go after him now, as it may well be the lowest value you’ll be able to secure Watson at for a while. Deshaun represents a giant tier break from players like Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, and Carson Wentz, all of whom are going within about 28 picks of Watson. I can’t fault you for subscribing to the late round QB theory while drafting a team in a one QB league. However, if you’re in a league that allows you to start more than one QB, Watson is an enormous value that will provide long-standing, difference-making numbers for your fantasy team. 

ADP Early Values: AFC South

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ADP Early Values: AFC South

by Matt Kelley

We are now in July and folks are starting to turn on their spidey senses for fantasy football. If you’re reading this, those senses have probably already been on. We’ve talked NFC South value picks for where we are in the calendar year; let's shift our focus to the AFC South to talk about who you can snag at a value. As always, this article assumes a 12-team league and PPR scoring.

 

Houston Texans: Brandin Cooks

Well, the Texans certainly made some off-season noise, and it probably wasn’t what Texans fans were hoping for, when they shipped perennial Pro Bowl wide receiver Deandre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for David Johnson (there were some picks too, but...Deandre freaking Hopkins). That left the Texans with a pretty big hole at the wide receiver position. Brandin Cooks enters a WR corps that features Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, and Randall Cobb.

Cooks has four seasons in which he has compiled more than 1,000 receiving yards. Fuller, Stills, and Cobb have combined for one (Cobb, 2014). There are various reasons why that hasn’t occurred for these guys, but nonetheless Cooks comes into a situation with all of Hopkins’ vacated targets, Deshaun Watson - a quarterback in his prime, and by far the most accomplished WR. The Texans mark Cooks’ fourth team since entering the league in 2014.

His current ADP sits at WR 35, overall pick 73, in the top half of the sixth round. Teammate Will Fuller is going about ten picks before Cooks. Fuller has an electric connection with Watson when on the field but hasn’t started more than 11 games in the last three seasons, largely due to hamstring injuries. Cooks isn’t without risk as he has five documented concussions. The NFL has put more emphasis on concussions over the last several seasons, so it is worrisome that Cooks could be a hit away from leaving the field for an extended time.

By all accounts, Cooks has noted his health is fine, and he seems to be ready to forge on. If he can stay on the field, he’ll likely be an absolute steal at this point in a draft as there aren’t too many guys going this late with a proven 1,000 yard upside.

 

Indianapolis Colts: Marlon Mack

I know...and Jonathan Taylor, right? I know. Marlon Mack is currently going as RB 42, overall pick 113, in the top half of round 9. What I’ve taken away from the Colts coaching staff so far this offseason is that they believe this will be a committee situation in the backfield.

It’s no secret that Indy has a great offensive line, which is welcoming news to any RB and most likely more so to new incoming QB, Philip Rivers. With the offseason shortened, the Colts could turn towards the running game as a whole a bit more often while Rivers starts to settle in and develop chemistry. That said, Taylor will need to do the same to some degree.

I fully expect Mack to garner at least 60% of the touches through the first half of the year. Mack will certainly concede the passing down work to Taylor or Nyheim Hines. However, Mack is going about 70 picks after Taylor. With Mack having the early work (and likely being the starter for a large portion of the season), he could easily surpass RB42 value. In 26 games over the last two seasons, Mack has put up more than 1,900 yards rushing.

This isn’t a Frank Gore/Devin Singletary scenario. Plus in the last two seasons he’shad eight and nine touchdowns, respectively. I think Mack is still the go-to back at the goal line. He can be seen as a RB2 in the early portion of the season and also sustain weekly flex appeal throughout.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Gardner Minshew II

I mustache you...do you like rushing quarterbacks? I know I do. Gardner Minshew had 281 yards rushing in 12 games last season - that’s about 21 yards a game. To some it might not sound like a ton, but in four point passing touchdown leagues, that comes out to an extra eight touchdowns over the course of a season...or it erases his fumbles from last season...however you’d like to look at it.

Minshew took over for Nick Foles last season, who went down pretty much out of the gate. It was a little back and forth with Foles and Minshew once Foles was back, but the Jags liked what they saw in Gardner (he’s also getting paid considerably less) and sent Foles to Chicago to compete with Mitch Trubisky. It was anticipated that the Jags would sign a higher profile backup or perhaps someone to compete with Minshew, but they really haven’t done that. Minshew goes into the season as the starter with no competition for his spot, a hopefully motivated Leonard Fournette, and a pretty good surrounding cast.

In fantasy drafts, he’s almost undrafted. He’s currently slotted in as QB 23, pick 223 overall - basically undrafted unless you have very deep rosters. If things don’t work out for Minshew, you really haven’t lost much in redraft leagues. Obviously in dynasty, you’d likely have an option ahead of Minshew or as your QB2 in SuperFlex leagues. The first two games for the Jags are tougher with the Colts and then on the road in Tennessee. After that though, the Jags get the Bengals, Texans, and Lions - all beatable defenses. If Minshew can limit his fumbles and get into the endzone on the ground a couple of times, he could be a great play in plus matchups and easily come in ahead of QB23.

 

Tennessee Titans: Jonnu Smith

I’ve already planted my flag and told you why you should draft Ryan Tannehill (you can find that from my earlier article on why he’s the real deal), so now I’ll let you know one of biggest reasons why he’ll be successful: his TE, Jonnu Smith. Smith is currently being drafted as TE 16, pick 154, the back of round 12. Now, if you’re drafting with me, Jonnu isn’t making it to the back half of round 12. Smith is option number two in the passing game behind A.J. Brown in this offense. The Titans obviously had a tale of two seasons last year. One with Marcus Mariota, and the other with the aforementioned Tannehill. From week eight forward, Smith saw at least four targets in six games. Not a ton of volume I’ll give you, but the Titans leaned on the monster that was Derrick Henry down the stretch...and who can blame them?

While the Titans are likely to run Henry for everything he has left in him this year, Tannehill proved to be efficient in this system, and both he and Smith will have a full off-season knowing they’re locked into starting roles. I’m not telling you that Smith is the next Mark Andrews or George Kittle, but I am saying he’s in an offense that is efficient (as he was at 12.5 yards a grab last season), and will have plenty of scoring opportunities. I think Smith could provide weekly upside to finish within the top six at his position and within the top 10 TE’s for the season.

You can follow me @ThatMattKelley