Derrick Henry

Dynasty Destinations: Derrick Henry

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Dynasty Destinations: Derrick Henry

By John McGlynn

 

The Tennessee Titans are rumored to be shopping Derrick “King” Henry this off-season in what feels like a rebuilding move. That combined with other Titans players getting released/waived further shows this to be true. My focus in this article is King Henry, as I have a handful of destinations I see him fitting in quite nicely. Here are my top 5 destinations for the superstar running back.

 

 

Buffalo Bills

I start off with my #1 destination.. the Buffalo Bills. They should absolutely be on the phone kicking the wheels on the King Henry freight train while it's still in the station. Everyone knows that the Bills have one of the most powerful offenses in the league. Josh Allen has been playing hero ball since his slow start in year one and two. He's on fire now, but how long can that last? How long can Allen hang in the pocket and throw missiles to Diggs with defensive lineman and linebackers hanging all over him? How many times can he get his elbow yanked mid throw before his elbow injuries go from a weekly scare to a long term serious injury? What can the Bills do to fix this offense?

The answer to the question of how do we keep Josh Allen safe is just a phone call away for Bills General Manager Brandon Beane. That phone call should go as follows. “Ran, Brandon Beane here. I need to set up a play action offense to give Josh Allen time in the pocket and I need Derrick Henry in my backfield to do that?” And before you say anything about the salary cap and Derrick Henry’s $10mil and the Bills already negative cap number, just remember that the New Orleans Saints operate in the negative every off-season it seems. Heck.. they aren't even close to the powerhouse team that the Bills are. We all know the salary cap is a fake number that a savvy numbers guy can magically make work with a ballpoint pen.

 

 

Now imagine if the Bills do find a way to get the King, his 300 attempts, his 1500+ yards, his 15+ touchdowns, and his long speed. Not to mention the peace of mind it will give Josh Allen in the pocket. Now imagine they are ables to draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Quenton Johnston at pick 27. After that they complete their draft with a handful of offensive linemen. The Bills offensive depth chart just became more unstoppable than it seemingly was before. 

The Bills always seem to be rumored to be the market for a game changing running back. This is their chance in a Super Bowl-or-Bust type of move. I cannot think of a better way to improve this offense than to add the King of moving the football and then opting to just plug the need at wide receiver in the draft. The Bills can't be scared to go for broke as losing to the Bengals and the Chiefs in the playoffs is getting old. Bills Mafia would be jumping for joy if this were made into a reality. Heck.. I might join the Bills Mafia myself if King Henry is wearing a Buffalo jersey next season. 

 

 

Miami Dolphins

Miami is another team that could really use a running back like Henry. This is a powerful offense that funnels through Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Keeping Tua upright is obviously the priority of the Dolphins and stuffing three hundred plugs carried down the opponents interior defense would definitly achieve that goal. They have the money/cap space, and Henry can certainly help control the clock when Miami needs it most.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Moving on from Miles Sanders is something we can see the Eagles doing. Sanders did just fine behind one of the leagues best offensive lines however, he is no Derrick Henry. Sanders averaged about 30 receptions over the last four seasons, and even though Henry is not known to be a PPR machine, he has shown soft hands when he has been targeted. In this high-powered offense, and with a young and very mobile Jalen Hurts, keeping Henry bottled up in the backfield would be almost impossible. 

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon is rumored to be a cut candidate in Cincinnati. He did regress somewhat last season, but being part of this finely tuned, well oiled machine, there was no excuse why Mixon failed to gain a thousand yards. He had one historic game last year that accounted for a huge chunk of his stats. Samaje Perine could have a chance to prove himself if the Bengals move on from Mixon, but having a raging bull in the backfield all revved up and ready to go would be a welcome site for every Bengals fanatic.

 

Denver Broncos

The Broncos had some high hopes for Javonte Williams last season, but he suffered a terrible injury that tore multiple ligaments in his knee. As we saw with JK Dobbins, this injury might take time to heal. A new ground and pound offense, under new Coach Sean Payton could be the buffer the Broncos need until Javonte is ready to return. Russell Wilson is use to playing with a workhorse back like Marshawn Lynch, and having the pressure lifted off Wilson as the centerpiece of the offense might right the ship for the whole franchise. Let Russ cook and let Broncos Country ride on the back of King Henry.       

 

Veterans and Dynasty Value

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Veterans and Dynasty Value

By Tim Lazenby

It’s impossible to overlook the effect of Father Time in fantasy football when it comes to dynasty format.  But just because a player isn’t as young as he once was, it doesn’t mean his value is nil.  I’m going to give you three players at each skilled position to target knowing full well my projected shelf life of elite play.  Let’s begin with the tight ends.

Tight Ends

The fall off age for a player depends on position and at tight end, the magical age is 28.  Although there are rarities, statistics show that after the age of 27, you see less tight ends dominating and the drop off in contribution beginning.  Let me give you one veteran to target for this year, one who will be good for a couple seasons and one who will be good for three or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Gerald Everett (28) is a good target for this category.  While he’s not in the upper echelon of tight ends, his value should go way up now that he’s with Justin Herbert and Co.  I do fear that he’s a temporary fix, but when he is priced at TE21 (166 overall), the price doesn’t get much better.  If we’ve learned anything from this team, it’s that they love to throw.  And this should be exploited even more as this will be the best offensive tight end he’s played with.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Zach Ertz (31) is a great target if you’re looking for a guy with a couple years of solid fantasy play.  It may surprise some to know that after the trade to Arizona, Zach Ertz was the TE6 on the season.  And while Marquise Brown hurts his value, I don’t think Ertz will subside greatly.  It’s also going to take a couple seasons for Trey McBride to claw his way to the top of the depth chart, but even when he does, Ertz has shown he can share a field with a partner.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Call me crazy, but I think we still have tons of time left to appreciate the legend of Travis Kelce (32).  A unicorn in his own rite, Kelce has been nothing but dominant since day one.  With the receiving room having been overhauled in Kansas City, there is no doubt in my mind that Kelce will be targeted more now than ever.  Lastly, for those scared off by his age, legends Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten have both played over twice the amount of career games as Kelce.  While that may not be a guarantee of how long Kelce will play, he’s certainly got lots of time left.

Wide Receiver

For me, the magical age for fall off when it comes to wide receiver is 29.  There is a rapid decline once you cross over into the 30s, but that doesn’t mean that all players are dead in the water after their twenties.  Let’s throw three wide receivers, at least 29 years old, at you who are still elite in dynasty.

Very Relevant For Next Year

There’s a lot that makes fantasy managers nervous about Robert Woods (30) moving forward.  Just coming off injury and moving to a new system can be nerve wracking, but the price is right.  Despite competition in Treylon Burks, that’s where the list ends.  It also helps Woods’ case that stud Derrick Henry is coming off an injury himself, so they can’t pound the rock as hard as they want.  At WR38 (101 overall), his price has never been this good since his days in Buffalo.  Treylon will take over, make no mistake, but this season Robert Woods has a real shot at WR2 status.

He’s Got a Couple Years

With my second Charger in this article, we can’t overlook the glaring value of Keenan Allen (30).  Since 2018, Keenan Allen is the only wide receiver to get over 130 targets every season.  The early years with injuries haven’t been forgotten for some, so take advantage.  And make no mistake, this receiver room belongs to Keenan Allen, not Mike Williams.  He’s also being drafted in the 30s in some circumstances.  Go after a manager who only sees him as a one year player and take Allen all the way to the championship.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Davante Adams (29) is the only 99 wide receiver on Madden.  And even though many people disagree with many ratings, most agree on this one.  That being said, some are concerned now that Davante is going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr.  I’m going to go on record and state that talent is talent.  Adams is special and he’ll shine no matter where he goes.  It also doesn’t hurt that I think Carr is underrated.  I can’t see a world in which Davante Adams isn’t elite for at least another 3-5 years and hopefully you can’t either.

Running Backs

Everyone knows that the shelf life is the shortest with the running back.  Being the most physical position in the league, it makes complete sense.  It’s also the hardest to find true value.  Once a running back hits 26 years old, I begin to get nervous.  Here is a list of three running backs, 27 or older, to consider under the previous noted criteria.

Very Relevant for Next Year

The list of running backs is more sparse than other positions.  Ezekiel Elliott (27) is a name this season, in dynasty, that many managers are treating like a ghost.  It makes sense as 2021 was his worst year to date, but let’s not forget the situation the man is in.  It is true that Tony Pollard is chomping at the bit, but the reality is that the Cowboys are far too financially invested in Zeke to not showcase him.  He still also plays behind arguably the best O-line in the league and the passing options have decreased from last year.  Zeke has never been cheaper.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Going back to back and featuring Titans, I’m going with Derrick Henry (28) here.  I can’t recall a more dominant runner in recent history than Henry.  A giant among mortals, Henry broke many hearts as he went down with injury last season.  And while I don’t think he’ll be up to speed immediately, it won’t take forever.  The cupboards are also not overflowing with running backs to take a stab at his crown.  In redraft, he’s still quite expensive, but in dynasty he’s ripe for the picking.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

I’d be lying if I thought any running back over 26 could be a surefire bet to fit this category, but if you’re forcing my hand, I’m going right back to the Chargers in Austin Ekeler (27).  I know I’m super pro-Chargers here, but there is good reason to be.  If the Chargers hadn’t drafted Isaiah Spiller, I’d be more nervous, but this gives shelf life to Ekeler.  Now he doesn’t have to be on the field all the time and he can be used in far less physical situations.  Much like Henry, in redraft the value is high, but in dynasty, you can still make a profit.

Quarterbacks

Lastly, we move on to the most critical role in all of sports.  In fantasy, especially if you are playing 2 QB or superflex, hitting the right value on quarterbacks is essential.  The longevity of a quarterback is the best of the bunch, but that also makes it harder to take advantage of a good value.  Once a quarterback hits 33 years old, I get leery.  But, have no fear, as I am going to give you three quarterbacks to go for in dynasty who are 34 year old or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Well, this category was much easier than the others as there are only four starting quarterbacks that are 34 or older.  The answer to this first one is quite simple.  Although Tom Brady is one I’d take for sure for next year’s value, I’m going Aaron Rodgers (38) because I want a chance at more years.  Though Rodgers is signed for multiple years, I never quite trust him.  And for that reason, if you’re only focused on winning the championship, he’s a great target.   With many worried managers just wanting him off their plate and willing to sacrifice the value, the time is now to go for A-Rod in dynasty.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Although for many young fans, Matt Ryan (37) is all they’ve ever known of Atlanta, he’s getting a fresh start in Indianapolis.  And while he isn’t the MVP he once was, there’s still plenty left in the tank.  With no ready option for the Colts under center, Matt Ryan will have a few years to show off his skills.  And as the QB21 (151 overall) in drafts, there are plenty of managers not seeing his full value.  He’s one of the few late quarterbacks with the upside of a QB1.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

It should come to no surprise that Matthew Stafford (34) will be the winner of this category.  Even if he wasn’t elite, which he is, his Super Bowl win will give him ample time to stick around in one of the league’s best offenses for years to come.  Like previous entries in this article, the value may not be there in redraft, but in dynasty, Matthew Stafford may have the biggest value and upside of any quarterback in the league.

Ageism in Fantasy Football

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Ageism in Fantasy Football

By Tim Lazenby

 

Fantasy football is many things to many people. It can offer the greatest thrills you’ve felt and at the same time, it can utterly destroy your world. No matter what format you play, if you are a fantasy manager, savvy decisions are constantly being made in order to bring you all the way to the top. And to make matters more complicated, if you play dynasty, these decisions weigh more heavily. On top of considering a player’s skill level and if they fit the make of your team, age always comes into the minds of anyone running a team.

But how old is too old? This question has many different answers, especially when considering certain positions, but the question must be pondered all the same. I, like almost any other manager, am guilty of ageism in fantasy football. While I am a little more reasonable with the quarterback, or even wide receiver, the running back always seems to have a ticking clock attached to their name.

And while it’s normal and even wise to take age into consideration, there has to be a limit as to how much weight it brings to the equation. When do you take the lesser talent because the player is simply too old? I was reminded of this by two community members in a charity pool we’re in this season. Let’s see where you sit.

The conversation came up when discussing the King, Derrick Henry. At 28 years old, he can’t be trusted like he was even two seasons ago. And considering the injury he is coming back from, @ApolyonLC stated that he’d rather have a younger, albeit inexperienced option in Cam Akers. He put forth an argument that Henry’s value is too high and he’d rather have the much cheaper, yet still comparable option.

Well, this lit a fire under @NatedBeall who thought that notion was ludacris. While it’s true he’s certainly not as young as he once was, he’s still near the top of his game. Why would you want Cam Akers, who suffered a devastating injury of his own and is also unproven? Why not go with the guy who you know what he’s capable of? Push comes to shove, even though Henry is more expensive, there is a good reason for it.

And while I have an opinion of my own, obviously, I can definitely see both sides. The decision is way easier for me in redraft, but in dynasty, the waters are much more muddied. Let’s talk about why you should take Derrick Henry:

I feel like I have to state the obvious. Derrick Henry is not alone here. There is a laundry list of aging veterans who are being looked down upon simply because they are a year older than they were. But we’ve seen time and again where veterans can lead the pack. There are special players who laugh at their expiry date. I was the same guy who refused to draft Tom Brady for the last eight years because I was sure the cliff was looming, by the way.

But, even if Henry, or that other veteran you’re thinking of, isn’t the numero uno, it is a rarity to be among the upper echelon and fail to meet any version of expectations completely. There is a real danger that you pass on someone only to have them score 20 less points. And you take the younger option who isn’t even close to the other “too old” guy. I remember specifically passing on Adrian Peterson one year because I thought he was too old, only to have him destroy the league. Meanwhile, the “young stud” I took was near worthless at the time.

There’s also the mistake we make in dynasty of always planning for our future, but never considering our present. Why abandon a perfectly good “old” option so you can win in the next three seasons? Meanwhile, you never win a season because you have no established talent, but you’re super excited about your team in 2026…

Now I’d be selling you up the river if I let you believe there isn’t some logic in avoiding aging veterans over comparable youth. While I personally am not heavily invested in Cam Akers, I can see why people are. There are people who will lead you to believe the gamble is all on taking the youngster, but there are gambles on either side.

And, since we’re talking dynasty, building your future can’t be ignored. You simply have to sell high when the timer is ticking and buy low before the star explodes. There’s a reason why stock market experts are rich, after all. Those who were smart enough to gain any star player before their current worth are certainly rewarded. And when it comes to Derrick Henry specifically, there aren’t too many players his age who dominate at running back, let alone as the years press on.

So on this side of the argument, you’re essentially getting Derrick Henry or two really great pieces. And to most, two things sound better than one. So why hinge all your hopes on one older piece, who’s coming off an injury, when you can instead get a couple great pieces who will most likely last you much longer?

Many statistical studies have shown that running backs, on average, improve until the age of 27, and then they will begin to regress. And while there are unicorns, betting on a player to break the odds is not statistically probable. And for most of us with money and pride invested in our teams, it makes the most sense to go by the numbers and shift our team before it’s too late. It’s simply the smarter decision to move on from Derrick Henry now, at his age, and get comparable pieces for both your present and your future.

So, verdict time. Where do I sit on this proverbial wall? The decision for me is quite easy in redraft formats. Derrick Henry at his current ADP is worth more to me than Cam Akers and a good piece. But, to get to the meat and potatoes, in dynasty I swing the direction of Cam Akers and a piece. That is, unless there is no trading. In which case, I would rather gamble on Derrick Henry for a couple seasons than be stuck with Cam Akers, in whom I have no trust.

Lastly, to make this super spicy, there was a bet that was made:

Cam Akers finishes better than RB15 and Derrick Henry finishes worse than RB7.

This season, I predict that Cam Akers finishes below RB15 and Derrick Henry finishes above RB7, if he stays healthy that is.

I’d love to write more about what’s pressing for anyone. If some fantasy football thing is on your mind, I’d love to give you my thoughts and if you want to be mentioned in an article by me, let me know!

Dynasty Dilemma: Derrick Henry

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Dynasty Dilemma: Derrick Henry

By Alex French

 

The NFL draft is just a couple days away, which means your rookie drafts are quickly approaching. With this in mind, it's time to figure out if your team is ready to. Win now, or if you’re building for the future. So, it’s time to evaluate those veterans and roster spots to determine what lies in the future. Today, we take a look at what to do with former NFL rushing champion, Derrick Henry.

 

First and foremost, it’s important to self-evaluate. This can be difficult, but it's important to be as honest as possible with your team evaluation. Some NFL teams even struggle with this, however, if you’re able to do it correctly, success is in the future. So, are you in a position to make a run at the title in your league? Or are you in a position where you might make the playoffs? Alternatively, are you a team that would be competing for that first overall pick in the 2023 rookie draft? Once you’ve determined which category your team fits, the dilemma becomes much clearer. If your evaluation leads you to the ladder, and your poised for a title run now, maybe you want to consider acquiring Henry. Let’s evaluate further.

By far one of the best overall athletes in the entire league,Henry defied the odds last season. In 2020,Henry rushed for over 2000 yards with 17 touchdowns. Incredibly, in 2021, he was on pace to do it again before his season was cut short by a foot fracture.  In previous seasons, a foot fracture was more often than not a season ending injury, yet Henry refused to let that happen. He returned for the Tennessee Titans playoff game. He managed 62 yards and. A touchdown, but it wasn’t enough. The fact Henry returned at all is encouraging for fantasy managers looking at their title chances in 2022. If you have a later round rookie pick, it will likely help your team less than what Henry represents. This is where self evaluation becomes critical. If you’re looking at a youth filled roster, or maybe one where you don’t really have studs anywhere you may want to consider the opposite side and read the following paragraphs.  As a contender, you can be encouraged that Henry was off to an incredible start with 937 rushing yards in just eight games. He also chipped in 154 receiving yards. Despite playing in just eight games, he still finished at RB22 on the season. Interestingly enough, he was also on pace to have a career best 42.5 receptions. With newly acquired Robert Woods coming off a late season ACL tear, the Titans may need Henry to catch passes again. As a contender, make your move during the rookie draft to acquire Henry.

 

 

That all being said, there are still health concerns here. As good as Henry was for your fantasy team, he missed more than half the season with a foot fracture. As we;’ve seen in many cases before, this can be a lingering issue. Of course Henry came back for the Titans playoff game, but he clearly wasn’t himself with just 62 yards. Henry has seen an incredible workload over his career, and it's entirely possible it's catching up with him. In addition, Henry is already an outlier from a production standpoint. He continues to be a top fantasy running back despite his lackluster usage in the passing game. Running backs see their production fall off quite significantly after turning 26, and Henry just turned 28. With running backs, it's always better to get out a year too early than a year too late, think Todd Gurley. Gurley was risky due to a well documented knee issue, but let me ask you, is a foot injury all that different? I think now is the time to trade him away. It’s entirely possible to imagine Henry having a top 20 finish at the position, but that’s a risk I’m willing to accept. 

 

So if he’s a trade candidate, what do we do? Well, there’s a few ways to approach the situation. As mentioned previously, rookie draft season is right around the corner. It’s not unreasonable to ask for a first rounder for Henry. I would look to target your favorite back in this class. If that happens to be Breece Hall, you may have to add your own picks to swing a trade as Hall is currently the first pick of rookie drafts. If you’ve had Henry on your team though, chances are you have a later round pick. I’d be willing to offer a late first and Henry for the 1.01 if that may be enough. If not, Kenneth Walker has been receiving a lot of hype lately, and has an incredible athletic profile as well. His current ADP is pick 3. That may be much more attainable. 

This may be an unpopular opinion, and it's certainly risky, but a 28 year old running back coming off a foot fracture, with the workload of Derrick Henry, is more risk than I’m willing to take. In order for Henry to hit value going as the fourth overall pick, you need an outlier season of close to league lead in rushing yards and likely 12 or more touchdowns. Pair that with how little passing game work Henry gets, and you’re already asking for a lot. Add in returning from a foot fracture, and you’re approaching something close to hitting on a 5 tier parlay. That’s not a gamble I’m willing to take. 

 

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