Derrick Henry

Dynasty Destinations: Derrick Henry

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Dynasty Destinations: Derrick Henry

By John McGlynn

 

The Tennessee Titans are rumored to be shopping Derrick “King” Henry this off-season in what feels like a rebuilding move. That combined with other Titans players getting released/waived further shows this to be true. My focus in this article is King Henry, as I have a handful of destinations I see him fitting in quite nicely. Here are my top 5 destinations for the superstar running back.

 

 

Buffalo Bills

I start off with my #1 destination.. the Buffalo Bills. They should absolutely be on the phone kicking the wheels on the King Henry freight train while it's still in the station. Everyone knows that the Bills have one of the most powerful offenses in the league. Josh Allen has been playing hero ball since his slow start in year one and two. He's on fire now, but how long can that last? How long can Allen hang in the pocket and throw missiles to Diggs with defensive lineman and linebackers hanging all over him? How many times can he get his elbow yanked mid throw before his elbow injuries go from a weekly scare to a long term serious injury? What can the Bills do to fix this offense?

The answer to the question of how do we keep Josh Allen safe is just a phone call away for Bills General Manager Brandon Beane. That phone call should go as follows. “Ran, Brandon Beane here. I need to set up a play action offense to give Josh Allen time in the pocket and I need Derrick Henry in my backfield to do that?” And before you say anything about the salary cap and Derrick Henry’s $10mil and the Bills already negative cap number, just remember that the New Orleans Saints operate in the negative every off-season it seems. Heck.. they aren't even close to the powerhouse team that the Bills are. We all know the salary cap is a fake number that a savvy numbers guy can magically make work with a ballpoint pen.

 

 

Now imagine if the Bills do find a way to get the King, his 300 attempts, his 1500+ yards, his 15+ touchdowns, and his long speed. Not to mention the peace of mind it will give Josh Allen in the pocket. Now imagine they are ables to draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Quenton Johnston at pick 27. After that they complete their draft with a handful of offensive linemen. The Bills offensive depth chart just became more unstoppable than it seemingly was before. 

The Bills always seem to be rumored to be the market for a game changing running back. This is their chance in a Super Bowl-or-Bust type of move. I cannot think of a better way to improve this offense than to add the King of moving the football and then opting to just plug the need at wide receiver in the draft. The Bills can't be scared to go for broke as losing to the Bengals and the Chiefs in the playoffs is getting old. Bills Mafia would be jumping for joy if this were made into a reality. Heck.. I might join the Bills Mafia myself if King Henry is wearing a Buffalo jersey next season. 

 

 

Miami Dolphins

Miami is another team that could really use a running back like Henry. This is a powerful offense that funnels through Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Keeping Tua upright is obviously the priority of the Dolphins and stuffing three hundred plugs carried down the opponents interior defense would definitly achieve that goal. They have the money/cap space, and Henry can certainly help control the clock when Miami needs it most.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Moving on from Miles Sanders is something we can see the Eagles doing. Sanders did just fine behind one of the leagues best offensive lines however, he is no Derrick Henry. Sanders averaged about 30 receptions over the last four seasons, and even though Henry is not known to be a PPR machine, he has shown soft hands when he has been targeted. In this high-powered offense, and with a young and very mobile Jalen Hurts, keeping Henry bottled up in the backfield would be almost impossible. 

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon is rumored to be a cut candidate in Cincinnati. He did regress somewhat last season, but being part of this finely tuned, well oiled machine, there was no excuse why Mixon failed to gain a thousand yards. He had one historic game last year that accounted for a huge chunk of his stats. Samaje Perine could have a chance to prove himself if the Bengals move on from Mixon, but having a raging bull in the backfield all revved up and ready to go would be a welcome site for every Bengals fanatic.

 

Denver Broncos

The Broncos had some high hopes for Javonte Williams last season, but he suffered a terrible injury that tore multiple ligaments in his knee. As we saw with JK Dobbins, this injury might take time to heal. A new ground and pound offense, under new Coach Sean Payton could be the buffer the Broncos need until Javonte is ready to return. Russell Wilson is use to playing with a workhorse back like Marshawn Lynch, and having the pressure lifted off Wilson as the centerpiece of the offense might right the ship for the whole franchise. Let Russ cook and let Broncos Country ride on the back of King Henry.       

 

Veterans and Dynasty Value

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Veterans and Dynasty Value

By Tim Lazenby

It’s impossible to overlook the effect of Father Time in fantasy football when it comes to dynasty format.  But just because a player isn’t as young as he once was, it doesn’t mean his value is nil.  I’m going to give you three players at each skilled position to target knowing full well my projected shelf life of elite play.  Let’s begin with the tight ends.

Tight Ends

The fall off age for a player depends on position and at tight end, the magical age is 28.  Although there are rarities, statistics show that after the age of 27, you see less tight ends dominating and the drop off in contribution beginning.  Let me give you one veteran to target for this year, one who will be good for a couple seasons and one who will be good for three or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Gerald Everett (28) is a good target for this category.  While he’s not in the upper echelon of tight ends, his value should go way up now that he’s with Justin Herbert and Co.  I do fear that he’s a temporary fix, but when he is priced at TE21 (166 overall), the price doesn’t get much better.  If we’ve learned anything from this team, it’s that they love to throw.  And this should be exploited even more as this will be the best offensive tight end he’s played with.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Zach Ertz (31) is a great target if you’re looking for a guy with a couple years of solid fantasy play.  It may surprise some to know that after the trade to Arizona, Zach Ertz was the TE6 on the season.  And while Marquise Brown hurts his value, I don’t think Ertz will subside greatly.  It’s also going to take a couple seasons for Trey McBride to claw his way to the top of the depth chart, but even when he does, Ertz has shown he can share a field with a partner.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Call me crazy, but I think we still have tons of time left to appreciate the legend of Travis Kelce (32).  A unicorn in his own rite, Kelce has been nothing but dominant since day one.  With the receiving room having been overhauled in Kansas City, there is no doubt in my mind that Kelce will be targeted more now than ever.  Lastly, for those scared off by his age, legends Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten have both played over twice the amount of career games as Kelce.  While that may not be a guarantee of how long Kelce will play, he’s certainly got lots of time left.

Wide Receiver

For me, the magical age for fall off when it comes to wide receiver is 29.  There is a rapid decline once you cross over into the 30s, but that doesn’t mean that all players are dead in the water after their twenties.  Let’s throw three wide receivers, at least 29 years old, at you who are still elite in dynasty.

Very Relevant For Next Year

There’s a lot that makes fantasy managers nervous about Robert Woods (30) moving forward.  Just coming off injury and moving to a new system can be nerve wracking, but the price is right.  Despite competition in Treylon Burks, that’s where the list ends.  It also helps Woods’ case that stud Derrick Henry is coming off an injury himself, so they can’t pound the rock as hard as they want.  At WR38 (101 overall), his price has never been this good since his days in Buffalo.  Treylon will take over, make no mistake, but this season Robert Woods has a real shot at WR2 status.

He’s Got a Couple Years

With my second Charger in this article, we can’t overlook the glaring value of Keenan Allen (30).  Since 2018, Keenan Allen is the only wide receiver to get over 130 targets every season.  The early years with injuries haven’t been forgotten for some, so take advantage.  And make no mistake, this receiver room belongs to Keenan Allen, not Mike Williams.  He’s also being drafted in the 30s in some circumstances.  Go after a manager who only sees him as a one year player and take Allen all the way to the championship.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Davante Adams (29) is the only 99 wide receiver on Madden.  And even though many people disagree with many ratings, most agree on this one.  That being said, some are concerned now that Davante is going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr.  I’m going to go on record and state that talent is talent.  Adams is special and he’ll shine no matter where he goes.  It also doesn’t hurt that I think Carr is underrated.  I can’t see a world in which Davante Adams isn’t elite for at least another 3-5 years and hopefully you can’t either.

Running Backs

Everyone knows that the shelf life is the shortest with the running back.  Being the most physical position in the league, it makes complete sense.  It’s also the hardest to find true value.  Once a running back hits 26 years old, I begin to get nervous.  Here is a list of three running backs, 27 or older, to consider under the previous noted criteria.

Very Relevant for Next Year

The list of running backs is more sparse than other positions.  Ezekiel Elliott (27) is a name this season, in dynasty, that many managers are treating like a ghost.  It makes sense as 2021 was his worst year to date, but let’s not forget the situation the man is in.  It is true that Tony Pollard is chomping at the bit, but the reality is that the Cowboys are far too financially invested in Zeke to not showcase him.  He still also plays behind arguably the best O-line in the league and the passing options have decreased from last year.  Zeke has never been cheaper.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Going back to back and featuring Titans, I’m going with Derrick Henry (28) here.  I can’t recall a more dominant runner in recent history than Henry.  A giant among mortals, Henry broke many hearts as he went down with injury last season.  And while I don’t think he’ll be up to speed immediately, it won’t take forever.  The cupboards are also not overflowing with running backs to take a stab at his crown.  In redraft, he’s still quite expensive, but in dynasty he’s ripe for the picking.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

I’d be lying if I thought any running back over 26 could be a surefire bet to fit this category, but if you’re forcing my hand, I’m going right back to the Chargers in Austin Ekeler (27).  I know I’m super pro-Chargers here, but there is good reason to be.  If the Chargers hadn’t drafted Isaiah Spiller, I’d be more nervous, but this gives shelf life to Ekeler.  Now he doesn’t have to be on the field all the time and he can be used in far less physical situations.  Much like Henry, in redraft the value is high, but in dynasty, you can still make a profit.

Quarterbacks

Lastly, we move on to the most critical role in all of sports.  In fantasy, especially if you are playing 2 QB or superflex, hitting the right value on quarterbacks is essential.  The longevity of a quarterback is the best of the bunch, but that also makes it harder to take advantage of a good value.  Once a quarterback hits 33 years old, I get leery.  But, have no fear, as I am going to give you three quarterbacks to go for in dynasty who are 34 year old or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Well, this category was much easier than the others as there are only four starting quarterbacks that are 34 or older.  The answer to this first one is quite simple.  Although Tom Brady is one I’d take for sure for next year’s value, I’m going Aaron Rodgers (38) because I want a chance at more years.  Though Rodgers is signed for multiple years, I never quite trust him.  And for that reason, if you’re only focused on winning the championship, he’s a great target.   With many worried managers just wanting him off their plate and willing to sacrifice the value, the time is now to go for A-Rod in dynasty.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Although for many young fans, Matt Ryan (37) is all they’ve ever known of Atlanta, he’s getting a fresh start in Indianapolis.  And while he isn’t the MVP he once was, there’s still plenty left in the tank.  With no ready option for the Colts under center, Matt Ryan will have a few years to show off his skills.  And as the QB21 (151 overall) in drafts, there are plenty of managers not seeing his full value.  He’s one of the few late quarterbacks with the upside of a QB1.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

It should come to no surprise that Matthew Stafford (34) will be the winner of this category.  Even if he wasn’t elite, which he is, his Super Bowl win will give him ample time to stick around in one of the league’s best offenses for years to come.  Like previous entries in this article, the value may not be there in redraft, but in dynasty, Matthew Stafford may have the biggest value and upside of any quarterback in the league.

Ageism in Fantasy Football

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Ageism in Fantasy Football

By Tim Lazenby

 

Fantasy football is many things to many people. It can offer the greatest thrills you’ve felt and at the same time, it can utterly destroy your world. No matter what format you play, if you are a fantasy manager, savvy decisions are constantly being made in order to bring you all the way to the top. And to make matters more complicated, if you play dynasty, these decisions weigh more heavily. On top of considering a player’s skill level and if they fit the make of your team, age always comes into the minds of anyone running a team.

But how old is too old? This question has many different answers, especially when considering certain positions, but the question must be pondered all the same. I, like almost any other manager, am guilty of ageism in fantasy football. While I am a little more reasonable with the quarterback, or even wide receiver, the running back always seems to have a ticking clock attached to their name.

And while it’s normal and even wise to take age into consideration, there has to be a limit as to how much weight it brings to the equation. When do you take the lesser talent because the player is simply too old? I was reminded of this by two community members in a charity pool we’re in this season. Let’s see where you sit.

The conversation came up when discussing the King, Derrick Henry. At 28 years old, he can’t be trusted like he was even two seasons ago. And considering the injury he is coming back from, @ApolyonLC stated that he’d rather have a younger, albeit inexperienced option in Cam Akers. He put forth an argument that Henry’s value is too high and he’d rather have the much cheaper, yet still comparable option.

Well, this lit a fire under @NatedBeall who thought that notion was ludacris. While it’s true he’s certainly not as young as he once was, he’s still near the top of his game. Why would you want Cam Akers, who suffered a devastating injury of his own and is also unproven? Why not go with the guy who you know what he’s capable of? Push comes to shove, even though Henry is more expensive, there is a good reason for it.

And while I have an opinion of my own, obviously, I can definitely see both sides. The decision is way easier for me in redraft, but in dynasty, the waters are much more muddied. Let’s talk about why you should take Derrick Henry:

I feel like I have to state the obvious. Derrick Henry is not alone here. There is a laundry list of aging veterans who are being looked down upon simply because they are a year older than they were. But we’ve seen time and again where veterans can lead the pack. There are special players who laugh at their expiry date. I was the same guy who refused to draft Tom Brady for the last eight years because I was sure the cliff was looming, by the way.

But, even if Henry, or that other veteran you’re thinking of, isn’t the numero uno, it is a rarity to be among the upper echelon and fail to meet any version of expectations completely. There is a real danger that you pass on someone only to have them score 20 less points. And you take the younger option who isn’t even close to the other “too old” guy. I remember specifically passing on Adrian Peterson one year because I thought he was too old, only to have him destroy the league. Meanwhile, the “young stud” I took was near worthless at the time.

There’s also the mistake we make in dynasty of always planning for our future, but never considering our present. Why abandon a perfectly good “old” option so you can win in the next three seasons? Meanwhile, you never win a season because you have no established talent, but you’re super excited about your team in 2026…

Now I’d be selling you up the river if I let you believe there isn’t some logic in avoiding aging veterans over comparable youth. While I personally am not heavily invested in Cam Akers, I can see why people are. There are people who will lead you to believe the gamble is all on taking the youngster, but there are gambles on either side.

And, since we’re talking dynasty, building your future can’t be ignored. You simply have to sell high when the timer is ticking and buy low before the star explodes. There’s a reason why stock market experts are rich, after all. Those who were smart enough to gain any star player before their current worth are certainly rewarded. And when it comes to Derrick Henry specifically, there aren’t too many players his age who dominate at running back, let alone as the years press on.

So on this side of the argument, you’re essentially getting Derrick Henry or two really great pieces. And to most, two things sound better than one. So why hinge all your hopes on one older piece, who’s coming off an injury, when you can instead get a couple great pieces who will most likely last you much longer?

Many statistical studies have shown that running backs, on average, improve until the age of 27, and then they will begin to regress. And while there are unicorns, betting on a player to break the odds is not statistically probable. And for most of us with money and pride invested in our teams, it makes the most sense to go by the numbers and shift our team before it’s too late. It’s simply the smarter decision to move on from Derrick Henry now, at his age, and get comparable pieces for both your present and your future.

So, verdict time. Where do I sit on this proverbial wall? The decision for me is quite easy in redraft formats. Derrick Henry at his current ADP is worth more to me than Cam Akers and a good piece. But, to get to the meat and potatoes, in dynasty I swing the direction of Cam Akers and a piece. That is, unless there is no trading. In which case, I would rather gamble on Derrick Henry for a couple seasons than be stuck with Cam Akers, in whom I have no trust.

Lastly, to make this super spicy, there was a bet that was made:

Cam Akers finishes better than RB15 and Derrick Henry finishes worse than RB7.

This season, I predict that Cam Akers finishes below RB15 and Derrick Henry finishes above RB7, if he stays healthy that is.

I’d love to write more about what’s pressing for anyone. If some fantasy football thing is on your mind, I’d love to give you my thoughts and if you want to be mentioned in an article by me, let me know!

Dynasty Dilemma: Derrick Henry

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Dynasty Dilemma: Derrick Henry

By Alex French

 

The NFL draft is just a couple days away, which means your rookie drafts are quickly approaching. With this in mind, it's time to figure out if your team is ready to. Win now, or if you’re building for the future. So, it’s time to evaluate those veterans and roster spots to determine what lies in the future. Today, we take a look at what to do with former NFL rushing champion, Derrick Henry.

 

First and foremost, it’s important to self-evaluate. This can be difficult, but it's important to be as honest as possible with your team evaluation. Some NFL teams even struggle with this, however, if you’re able to do it correctly, success is in the future. So, are you in a position to make a run at the title in your league? Or are you in a position where you might make the playoffs? Alternatively, are you a team that would be competing for that first overall pick in the 2023 rookie draft? Once you’ve determined which category your team fits, the dilemma becomes much clearer. If your evaluation leads you to the ladder, and your poised for a title run now, maybe you want to consider acquiring Henry. Let’s evaluate further.

By far one of the best overall athletes in the entire league,Henry defied the odds last season. In 2020,Henry rushed for over 2000 yards with 17 touchdowns. Incredibly, in 2021, he was on pace to do it again before his season was cut short by a foot fracture.  In previous seasons, a foot fracture was more often than not a season ending injury, yet Henry refused to let that happen. He returned for the Tennessee Titans playoff game. He managed 62 yards and. A touchdown, but it wasn’t enough. The fact Henry returned at all is encouraging for fantasy managers looking at their title chances in 2022. If you have a later round rookie pick, it will likely help your team less than what Henry represents. This is where self evaluation becomes critical. If you’re looking at a youth filled roster, or maybe one where you don’t really have studs anywhere you may want to consider the opposite side and read the following paragraphs.  As a contender, you can be encouraged that Henry was off to an incredible start with 937 rushing yards in just eight games. He also chipped in 154 receiving yards. Despite playing in just eight games, he still finished at RB22 on the season. Interestingly enough, he was also on pace to have a career best 42.5 receptions. With newly acquired Robert Woods coming off a late season ACL tear, the Titans may need Henry to catch passes again. As a contender, make your move during the rookie draft to acquire Henry.

 

 

That all being said, there are still health concerns here. As good as Henry was for your fantasy team, he missed more than half the season with a foot fracture. As we;’ve seen in many cases before, this can be a lingering issue. Of course Henry came back for the Titans playoff game, but he clearly wasn’t himself with just 62 yards. Henry has seen an incredible workload over his career, and it's entirely possible it's catching up with him. In addition, Henry is already an outlier from a production standpoint. He continues to be a top fantasy running back despite his lackluster usage in the passing game. Running backs see their production fall off quite significantly after turning 26, and Henry just turned 28. With running backs, it's always better to get out a year too early than a year too late, think Todd Gurley. Gurley was risky due to a well documented knee issue, but let me ask you, is a foot injury all that different? I think now is the time to trade him away. It’s entirely possible to imagine Henry having a top 20 finish at the position, but that’s a risk I’m willing to accept. 

 

So if he’s a trade candidate, what do we do? Well, there’s a few ways to approach the situation. As mentioned previously, rookie draft season is right around the corner. It’s not unreasonable to ask for a first rounder for Henry. I would look to target your favorite back in this class. If that happens to be Breece Hall, you may have to add your own picks to swing a trade as Hall is currently the first pick of rookie drafts. If you’ve had Henry on your team though, chances are you have a later round pick. I’d be willing to offer a late first and Henry for the 1.01 if that may be enough. If not, Kenneth Walker has been receiving a lot of hype lately, and has an incredible athletic profile as well. His current ADP is pick 3. That may be much more attainable. 

This may be an unpopular opinion, and it's certainly risky, but a 28 year old running back coming off a foot fracture, with the workload of Derrick Henry, is more risk than I’m willing to take. In order for Henry to hit value going as the fourth overall pick, you need an outlier season of close to league lead in rushing yards and likely 12 or more touchdowns. Pair that with how little passing game work Henry gets, and you’re already asking for a lot. Add in returning from a foot fracture, and you’re approaching something close to hitting on a 5 tier parlay. That’s not a gamble I’m willing to take. 

 

Check out all our other great content on the website, and you can find me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

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Tennessee Titans 2021 Post NFL Draft Fantasy Outlook

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Tennessee Titans 2021 Post NFL Draft Fantasy Outlook

By Tommy Harvey

Fresh off their 1st division title since 2008, the Tennessee Titans will attempt to take the next step up to Super Bowl contenders in 2021.  Their 11 wins are also the 1st double digit wins season since 2008, when they went 13-3 and lost in the AFC Divisional round.  Head Coach Mike Vrabel is the most successful HC since Jeff Fisher, going 29-19 in three seasons.  However, he is replacing Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith, who left to take the HC job in Atlanta.  Todd Downing was promoted from TE Coach to OC this offseason, and he will continue to run the same system that was in place under Smith.  Downing had previous OC experience with the Raiders in 2017, so the promotion should not be too much of an adjustment for him.

The Titans are replacing a few key contributors from last season’s team, as they lost WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries, TE Jonnu Smith, and OT Dennis Kelly.  Replacing them are WR Josh Reynolds, WR Dez Fitzpatrick, and OT Dillon Radunz.  Davis, Humphries, and Smith left behind 192 targets from 2020, so their replacements will have big shoes to fill if Tennessee wants to become an elite team in 2021.

2021 Draft Review

Tennessee didn’t have a ton of draft picks this year, but they did a good job of balancing offense and defense with their 8 picks.  The headliner was the 22nd overall pick CB Caleb Farley out of Virginia Tech.  A lot has been said of his back issues (two surgeries, the most recent in March) leading up to the draft, which caused him to fall to 22 for the Titans.  If healthy, Farley could be a lockdown CB1, in a division that includes QBs Deshaun Watson (for now anyways), Trevor Lawrence, and Carson Wentz.  

OT Dillon Radunz was one of the top linemen available this year, and Tennessee was able to snag him with the 53rd overall pick in the 2nd round.  That could be looked at as a steal in a few years.  He will take over for the departed Dennis Kelly and should help protect Ryan Tannehill and pave the way for Derrick Henry.  Radunz is not unfamiliar with blocking for high-caliber QBs, as Trey Lance was his teammate at North Dakota State.

My favorite pick of the Titans came in the 4th round, when they scooped up WR Dez Fitzpatrick out of Louisville with the 109th overall pick.  Fitzpatrick, 6’2 209lbs, ran in the 4.4’s during his pro day and should have a decent upside for the Titans in 2021.  In 2020 at Louisville, he had 43 catches for 833 yards and 3 TDs, in a somewhat underutilized role. Already 23 years old, Tennessee shouldn’t have to wait long for him to physically mature enough to contribute.  

Quarterback

QB Ryan Tannehill

Ryan Tannehill is entrenched as the Tennessee Titans franchise QB now, after signing a massive deal which included $62 million guaranteed before last season.  Tannehill didn’t disappoint, as he threw for over 3,800 yards and 33 TDs...and ran for another 7 TDs...in 2020.  The former 1st round pick of the Miami Dolphins originally arrived in Tennessee as the presumed backup to then QB Marcus Mariota.  However, inconsistent play by Mariota mixed with Tannehill’s ability to win games put him in the QB1 position for good in Nashville.  

The Titans need Tannehill to be a Pro Bowl caliber QB again in order for them to reach the Promised Land.  He has definitely seemed to figure out how to play in the NFL since leaving behind the Dolphins and Adam Gase.  He should be targeted as a back-end QB1 or high-end QB2 in all fantasy formats.  

2021 Early Projections:

337-510 66% 4,078 yards 36 TDs 9INTs; 51 carries, 306 yards, 4 TDs

Running Back

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry became the 2nd Titan (Chris Johnson) the 8th RB in NFL history to run for over 2,000 yards in a season in 2020. Can he do it again with an extra game on the schedule? It's a possibility, but I'd say not likely. The wear and tear on a RBs body eventually takes its toll, but Henry is a very rare breed. He has proven to be a durable thoroughbred for Tennessee, and they will continue to ride him for as long as they possibly can. 

Henry is a bonafide stud that should be considered a top-5 RB in all formats, despite not being a prime target in the passing game. In 2020, he finished as the RB3 in full PPR leagues, even with only 19 catches. In .5 PPR and standard leagues, he was the RB2 and RB1 respectively.

2021 Early Projections:

361 carries, 1,841 yards, 5.1ypc 14TDs; 34 targets, 21 receptions, 134 yards 1 TD

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

WR AJ Brown

In 14 games last season, AJ Brown saw 106 targets.  Let’s assume he plays all 17 games in 2021.  How many targets could/should he get with Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith out of the picture?  I don’t foresee another pass catcher getting 100+ targets in this offense (Corey Davis was 2nd on the team with 92 looks in 2020).  

Brown may very well be the overall WR1 in dynasty leagues, so envisioning him with close to 150 targets is not unreasonable.  With the lack of a true WR2 on the roster, Brown will be leaned on heavily in the pass game and should be a perennial Pro Bowler and potential All-Pro moving forward.  

2021 Early Projections:

145 Targets, 96 receptions, 1,430 yards 14.9ypc 14 TDs

WR Josh Reynolds

A new addition to the Titans, Josh Reynolds displayed plenty of ability while with the Rams.  He was just below some big time WRs on their depth chart.  Now in Tennessee, Reynolds should be considered their WR2. Last season in Los Angeles, Reynolds caught 52 balls on 81 targets for 618 yards.  That type of production should translate well as a possession receiver in Nashville.

2021 Early Projections:

96 targets, 64 receptions, 794 yards, 12.4ypc, 6 TDs

WR Dez Fitzpatrick 6’2 209 lbs

Another newcomer to the Tennessee roster is rookie WR Dez Fitzpatrick.  The former Louisville Cardinal was drafted in the 4th round and was a very good prospect early on in college with QB Lamar Jackson throwing him the ball.  Fitzpatrick has good size and speed, but will need to sure up his hands in order to make an impact in the NFL.  I think with a good NFL QB and coaching staff, he will do just that.

2021 Early Projections:

66 targets, 48 receptions, 706 yards, 14.7ypc, 6TDs

TE Anthony Firkser/Geoff Swaim

Jonnu Smith left Tennessee to join the New England Patriots, leaving behind a void at the Tight End position for the Titans.  Anthony Firkser performed well as a backup pass catching TE last season, but his ability...or lack thereof...to block has many wondering if he will see enough snaps.  Geoff Swaim is much less of a receiving threat, but a solid enough blocker to get on the field in Tennessee’s run-heavy offense.  

2021 Early Projections:

Firkser: 65 targets, 48 receptions, 480 yards, 10.0 ypc, 4TDs

Swaim: 28 Targets, 19 receptions, 177 yards, 9.3ypc, 1TDs

AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Continuing our journey through the AFC we head south with the, wait for it, AFC South. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a new QB, amazing O line, stout RB and WR groups, and HC Frank Reich. This offensive core is NEUTRAL, gladly targeting without reaching.

QB Phillip Rivers: QB2, priority FA, QB is too deep of a position to be drafting Rivers but always worth to keep a close eye on an established veteran with a strong supporting cast!

RB Jonathon Taylor: Low-RB2, ideal RB3, 10-12% auction, round 4, Jonathon Taylor feels a lot like Ezekiel Elliot’s rookie year. Great offensive live, in the mix with veteran RB prescence, drafted highly, studs in college, and could be a fantasy 1st rounder as a sophomore. Love him, think he will be special!

RBs Marlon Mack: (RB4, 3-4% auction, round 9) and Nyheim Hines (zeroRB and PPR target, RB5-6, 1-2% auction, round 13) are in the mix for splitting the workload. It would be wise to invest in this backfield!

WR TY Hilton: Low-WR2, ideal WR3, 6-7% auction, round 6, I think this best ball target is being a little undervalued with his cost, big upside! I think Rivers will look for him often!

WR Michael Pittman (priority FA, deep league end of bench WR) and Parris Campbell (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14) are great complimentary pieces with TY Hilton. Both being big upside potential. The more I think about it the more I think this entire offense is undervalued!

TE Jack Doyle (TE2, borderline undraftable) and Trey Burton (priority FA, if Doyle misses time) will be more exciting options if a WR would miss time. Always best to keep an eye out for players in a good offense like this one!

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were certainly remembered for their playoff run last season. Nice bit of career redemption for Ryan Tannehill and monster efforts from Derrick Henry and AJ Brown were very exciting to see! The Titans are NEUTRAL with fair ADP all around.

QB Ryan Tannehill: QB2, priority FA, glad to see him do well on this team, struggling with injuries in Miami, it is always good to see a player full potential on display, I hope he can keep it up!

RB Derrick Henry: RB1, 20-22% auction, round 1, a big stock riser for me over the course of the summer, I now have him solidified as my RB6 and 6th overall player in all formats. This king of volume looks to repeat his success with little competition behind him.

RB Darryton Evans: RB6, $1 deep auction, intriguing prospect lands in a great situation. Pass-catching upside is there!

WR AJ Brown: Low-WR1 (robust RB with elite TR), ideal WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4, he had a truly amazing rookie season being a YAC monster, but questions of statistical sustainability linger. He is the top dog in town. Buy!

WR Corey Davis: (priority FA) has potential for opportunity, he just hasn’t done much with it so far. I’m fading until proven otherwise. Opportunity and talent remain bit I want to see it consistently come together before I get on my roster.

TE Jonnu Smith: TE2, $1 deep auction, round 14 if TE waiting has gone out of control. This TE on the rise certainly has plenty of opportunity with Delanie Walker out of town. Perhaps I’m too low on him but other TE options are more exciting to me. Worth drafting for sure! If he doesn’t pan out, TE is super deep.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a FADE, every player has value at a certain price, almost all of them I will be targeting only if at a bargain. Looming loses seems likely but week to week value can still be had.

QB Gardner Minshew: A national treasure, full of Chuck Norris energy! Or did Chuck Norris (RIP) have Gardner Minshew energy? Hmmm. Anyway, the only way I’m drafting him in standard rule leagues is with the Bud Light sweepstakes in mind. Have I mentioned that he is a national treasure?! Fun guy on a bad team, I’d rather not count on garbage time points.

RB Ryquell Armstead, Devine Ozigbo, and Chris Thompson: After the release of Leonard Fournette, can one of these guys return fantasy value?  We always want to keep players on our radars, but in this case I’m gonna let the radar blip. If Chris Thompson can stay on the field he has legitimate pass catching upside. Deep PPR target.

WR DJ Chark: WR2, 6-7%, late-4th/early-5th, Nope, not going sing it, can’t do it, let’s not get that song stuck in your head, I won’t do that to you my valued reader. He had a glorious breakout season, and was garbage time proof! Focal point of the offense! Call Me Maybe...ha

WR Dede Westbrook (deep PPR target, priority FA) and WR Lavishka Shenault (priority FA, deep end of bench stash) are still intriguing in the way that fantasy points can still be had in this offense, especially with the passing game if they are trailing in games.

TE Tyler Eifert: low TE2, priority FA, always has upside when he is healthy, his journey in the NFL has been rough, always flashed but has overcome some brutal injuries. Rooting for the guy, keep an eye out!

Houston Texans

HC (and GM?) Bill O’Brien has made some “interesting” off season decisions... new faces include David Johnson and Brandin cooks but franchise WR DeAndre Hopkins is gone. Deshaun Watson alone makes this team full of NEUTRAL targets.

QB Deshaun Watson: QB1, 5% auction, round 7, rushing upside while surrounded by nice weapons continues to make him an attractive QB! This fantasy friendly offense is likely to find themselves in shoot-outs with Watson being the prime beneficiary!

RB David Johnson: “Ladder Pick”, RB2 12-13% auction, round 4, I was very happy to see that I am higher on him than the market is. Could see a lot of touches, some worry remains about what he is able to do with them. I’m ok taking that risk with a player with his inherent upside.

RB Duke Johnson: Low-RB4, zeroRB and PPR target, I wish he would be implemented more because he is a unique talent with great pass-catching ability. Houston could find themselves in some shoot-outs. Best ball target!

WR Will Fuller: Low-WR3/high-WR4, 5-6% auction, round 7, only worry is health, but when healthy the Sky is the literal limit! QB-WR Continuity will be key is the season! I’d be aggressive targeting him in Best ball!

WR Brandin Cooks: Low-WR3 (robust EB with elite TE), ideal WR4, on his 4th team now starting his 7th season, he has proven to be new location proof. Houston can put up some serious offensive numbers. PPR target!

WR Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb: Priority FAs in a good offense. Should become wildly relevant if Fuller/Cooks were to miss time!