Derek Carr

Replacing Watson

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Replacing Watson

By Joseph Goodwin

Now that we know there is a 6 game suspension for Deshaun Watson (which appears he will accept), how do fantasy managers proceed in drafting Watson?

First of all, be prepared for any draft that is about to happen, that the Watson stock is going to skyrocket.  I anticipate seeing Watson’s value rise to a low end QB 1 in the next few days; QB 10 or higher off the board.

If you are targeting Watson as your long term QB 1, before drafting your short term starter, consider the following:

Risk Aversion Level 1-3 (you want little risk)

You need a viable QB 1.  You cannot throw away half your season waiting for Watson to return.  You will need a legitimate starting quarterback to maintain a 4-2 or 5-1 pace to start the season.  Going 3-3 (or worse) does not bode well for your playoff chances in a 12 game regular season.  Instead, I would target the likes of : Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, or Aaron Rodgers. These choices are safe, reliable starting QB 1’s, but may require an investment earlier in drafts to secure than the scenarios below.  

Risk Aversion Level 4-6 (you don’t mind some risk)

You need a viable QB 1, but have a little more room for volatility.  In this scenario, you may be able to wait a tad longer on your QB 1 and target Kirk Cousins or Matthew Stafford.  Each QB will provide stable, fantasy point production through game 6 until Watson returns.  This scenario allows you to spend more of your early round draft capital on RB, WR to maximize your team’s scoring potential.  I excluded Derek Carr from this group due to his week 6 bye. This plan gives you an extra round or two from the 12 game plan to add depth to your other starting positions.

Threat Level Midnight

This option provides the most opportunity to swing for the fences and can include players like: Tua Tagovaiola, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence.  This plan offers the chance to load up on RB, WR, and TE; with a potential start: RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, WR, RB, WR before even thinking about the QB position. This plan can be a huge upside play.  A manager can plan on having Watson for 7 games before the playoffs, with the hopes of Tua, Justin, or Trevor provide adequate early season production to keep the team at 3-3 before Deshaun returns.

In all of these scenarios, Watson returning for game 7 against the Ravens should be the start to high end fantasy production from all of your starting positions.

My favorite among these scenarios is Matthew Stafford.  He provides solid QB play with a small amount of risk. My second favorite is Tua Tagovailoa.  Tua offers a solid 6 week opening and the added bonus of playing the Bears during Watson’s bye week.

In any of these scenarios, your risk tolerance and early round build are crucial to how you approach what QB to pair with Watson.  

Deshaun Watson could very well be a league winner if you find the proper compliment at QB.

Know your settings, schedule, and evaluate your tolerance to volatility in making this decision.

And win that title!

2022 League Winners

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2022 League Winners

By Bob Miller

 

At the end of every fantasy season there seems to be a handful of players that come out of nowhere that overachieve to help someone win a fantasy football championship. Some of these players are drafted late and some are picked up off the waiver wire. 

 

We like to call these players “League Winners”. League Winners are players that drastically out-produce your investment in them or their draft position. Some examples from last season are breakout players like Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Joe Burrow. This could also be a player such as Cordarrelle Patterson who went undrafted last year. 

 

Over the last 10 years or so I have published my league winners article on various fantasy football websites. I have had some hits and misses, but definitely more hits than anything. Here is the list of my league winners for the 2022 season.

 

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AFC West Best Values

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AFC West Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

We’ve talked about many values in every single division in the National Football League but one.  And in many ways, I’ve saved the best for last.  Let’s get into it.  It can’t be denied any further.  We just have to talk about the AFC West, not only my favorite division in football, but the most exciting one in many people’s eyes.  In a division ripe with skilled players all over, it’s not hard to find talent on any of these teams.  But, finding the value players isn’t that hard either.  Here is one player from each team in the AFC West who is, in my opinion, the best value player on his squad.

 

Denver Broncos: Tight End - Albert Okwuegbunam

Since Peyton Manning gifted them a Super Bowl win, the Denver Broncos just haven’t been able to get it together.  A regular carousel of coaches and quarterbacks have entered and left the organization, making success a difficult task for the Broncos.  But, with the addition of one of the best quarterbacks of his era, Russell Wilson is sure to give Denver their best chance at success.  Many have heard, “Let there be light” after the trade.  I am certain that the stocks of Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton have to go up, but there is a player who will improve that isn’t being spoken of nearly enough.  Now that Noah Fant was packaged in the deal that brought Wilson to town, Albert Okwuegbunam is ready to step into the spotlight and give the Broncos some voltage at tight end.

Now, I mean no disrespect toward Noah Fant; in fact, I love Fant.  He’s tremendously talented and he’ll certainly be leaned on in Seattle.  What I mean is that Albert O will finally shine as he isn’t in the shadow of Fant anymore.  If you didn’t watch many Broncos games, you should know that despite being the second tight end on the squad, Albert O performed better than many starting tight ends in the league.  And while it’s true that Russell Wilson doesn’t typically lean on tight ends, it doesn’t mean that he ignores them completely.  I also believe that teams will be all too eager to shadow Jeudy and Sutton, leaving the door open for Albert O to score a few key touchdowns.  And at such a talent starved position when it comes to fantasy, we have to be especially mindful of values at tight end.  Albert Okbuegbunam won’t be one of the top options at tight end league wide, but he’ll be one that could help you win a few weeks and the price tag isn’t one that will hurt the pocketbook too much.

Kansas City Chiefs: Running Back - Ronald Jones

Funny isn’t the word, but I’m going to use it anyway.  It’s funny how the Kansas City Chiefs reigned unanimously in the division among experts, and now, some have them as low as third.  While I don’t believe the notion that the Chiefs are dead in the water or even close to it, there is some reason to feel unsettled at the state of affairs in Kansas City.  While the rest of the AFC West has made mega moves to contend, the Chiefs have done the opposite by trading away the Cheetah, Tyreek Hill.  Surely this move will help their future, but the present is going to bring suffering.

I still think that the Chiefs are the second best team in the division and you’re always in it with Mahomes and Kelce.  But, one position that hasn’t gone well is the running back.  Although the running game is successful, the starting position hasn’t given much in the way of fantasy.  Clyde Edwards-Helaire clearly isn’t the solution, much to my dismay, so the addition of Ronald Jones is noteworthy.  Do I think that Jones steals the job outright?  Probably not.  But I think, even in a committee, he’ll be relevant as he shared a backfield pretty much his whole career.  There is also the chance that he could take the job and if that happens, his value will skyrocket.  I wrote a dynasty dilemma on him, so my love for him shouldn’t be surprising.  Having him as the best value on the team is a no brainer.

 

Las Vegas Raiders: Quarterback - Derek Carr

I have to be honest with you.  I’ve never loved Derek Carr.  He’s always been one of those guys, to me, who can win you a week or two if you get lucky, but can never be one to be depended on.  The beginning of last season, I was looking quite foolish as Derek Carr was balling out.  As the season continued, he came back down to earth, further cementing my notion that he’ll never be truly fantasy relevant.  Although I’m not alone in my thought process, I don’t think I gave him enough credit for what he’s done with the resources he’d been given.  When you look at the surrounding talent from years past, he hasn’t done as poorly as I’d naively believed.  This season, it’s a different game, as the added talent is insane.

While many are still in disbelief over the utterly shocking trade of Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders fans are chanting, “Hallelujah” choruses that can be heard all the way back to Oakland.  And while Carr has had some weapons in the past, he’s never had even close to what he’s about to have at the NFL level.  It’s also even more incredible when you consider the rapport between the two that goes back to their days at Fresno.  He and bestie, Adams, should tear the league a new one.  Save the covid years, they even trained together in the off season every year.  There is a chance that the magic isn’t instant, but there is no better shot that Carr will have at greatness.  There are many who haven’t put these pieces together yet, so find one of them and get Carr at a massive discount.  The value is incredible.

 

Los Angeles Chargers: Wide Receiver - Keenan Allen

I should place a big “WARNING” sticker before you read any more as the Chargers are my favorite team.  And even though I like to think I’m quite unbiased, there is a chance that I’m starry eyed for the Bolts.  Bearing that in mind, if there is a piece of any offense in the entire league that I want a part of, it’s Justin Herbert’s crew.  From quarterback, to the running game, to the receivers, it’s high octane.  This may be the highest powered offense in the league.  So finding value is an absolute must with the Chargers.  And while I think almost anyone on this team is a value, if I have to choose one, I have to go with life long Charger, Keenan Allen.

Admittedly, I was quite stupid in my assessment of Keenan Allen for many years.  I avoided him like the plague because he was such an “injury risk”, but in truth, he just had some bad luck early on.  If you exclude his injury years in 2015 and 2016, in his entire career he’s only missed a grand total of six games.  He’s also got this weird reputation in the fantasy circles as a guy who’s been in the league forever.  Still in his twenties, Keenan Allen has plenty left in the tank.  Regarded as one of the most consistent threats to have the ball in his hands, he’s also known as one of the best route runners in the league.  Many people gloss over him in drafts or his dynasty value, but don’t make that mistake.  Biased or not, I regard him as the most underrated receiver in the league.  His current value for many people makes him an absolute steal.  He’s simply a must have and with how little it will cost you.  You just have to make the move for him.

AFC West 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC West 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Our FINAL stop in the team breakdown by divison is a division that has one of each draft target category. The AFC West has 1 FADE, 1 NEUTRAL, 1 BUY, and 1 BIG BUY. Before we get into the division featuring the reigning Super Bowl Champs, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Los Angeles Chargers

With significant offensive changes, the LA Chargers come into this season as a FADE. Having some very weapons questions of QB play and quality linger, which as an overarching theme matters the most in real and fantasy football.

QB Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert: Deep league priority FAs for matchup streaming. Taylor has shown to be a useful fantasy option in years past but the young gun 1st round rookie, Herbert, is waiting wings for his opportunity to shine.

RB Austin Ekeler: “Ladder Pick”, low RB1, High RB2, 18-20% auction, early round 2, Ekeler remains a PPR monster and without Melvin Gordon in front of him he has tremendous upside. QB Taylor will look to be an efficient passer looking early and often for Ekeler! I’m smashing his name if he is available in the 2nd round!

RB Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley: Both late round pick or $1 deep auction, both are end of bench RB options with Melvin Gordon gone, opportunity knocks, both are talented and present plenty of upside. Even in a lesser offense, opportunity is appealing for fantasy. I prefer Kelley to Jackson but I’m going to keep a close eye on both!

WR Keenan Allen: Low-WR2 to high-WR3, 8-9% Auction, round 5, Tyrod isn’t known for his deep passing game, so that already will limit Allen’s upside. BUT Keenan Allen is an amazing talent and defensive separator that he could make Tyrod life very easy with his silky smooth route running!

Love the player and targeting him despite non-ideal QB situation.

WR Mike Williams: WR5, round 13, 1-2% auction, big play threat may be the latest unappealing piece of this offense with Tyrod under center. Not to mention his shoulder injury may keep him out for the month or so of the season.

(Keenan Allen may be a nice sell high candidate after the first couple weeks)

I like the idea of Mike Williams and the potential of what he can bring to the field but am worried how the QB play may limit his upside and general draft/weekly stock.

TE Hunter Henry: TE1, 3-4% auction, round 10, Henry is a great player when he is healthy! I believe Henry and Ekeler will benefit the most from Tyrod’s style of play. Having said that, I will be drafting a lot of Henry since I value him above his ADP.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders complete their move from the bay to the desert. The Raiders will be NEUTRAL for fantasy purposes for the inaugural Las Vegas season! Young promising talent is there which makes fantasy feasting a possibility.

QB Derek Carr: QB2, deep league priority FA, in the past Carr has been able to be useful for fantasy but the QB position is so deep that it’s likely he won’t be needed outside of a total catastrophe. Good and young weapons surround him, so matchup specific upside is there.

RB Josh Jacobs: RB1, 20-21% auction, round 2, an impressive rookie campaign was capped due to a shoulder injury. He remains the top rusher in this offense, but lacks pass-catching upside with the depth behind him on the roster. He will show why he was a 1st round talent!

RB Jalen Richard:  Late round selection in deep leagues or priority FA. Raiders have potential to be playing from behind, so rostering pass catching options like this may be valuable, especially for PPR.

WR Henry Ruggs: “Ladder Pick”, WR4-5, 3-4% auction, round 12, Las Vegas selected Ruggs as the top WR in the draft. This is quite significant since they passed on Jeudy and Lamb to do so. Ruggs has unique speed and think the team will find creative ways of getting the ball in his hands.

He is a player I will be aggressively targeting in all draft formats. In the back half of drafts if I am able to get someone who I believe can be the next Tyreek Hill, I think it would be foolish to pass up on that kind of opportunity. Best ball target!

WRs Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfroe are both deep league late round stashes. Also worth an end of bench pick in 12 team leagues! Both can be a nice way to round out your bench. Edwards fits perfectly as the X receiver, I am very excited for his potential! Renfroe has PPR upside!

TE Darren Waller: TE1, 4-5% auction, round 8, Waller is somebody that everyone is rooting for. His personal story is a wonderful reminder that football is more than a game but also an opportunity to display personal redemption in magnificent fashion. He could be the focal point of this passing game and be a matchup nightmare for defenses!

Denver Broncos

The Broncos made one thing very clear over the last year: Drew Lock is their man! The Denver offense has some new upgrades which makes their squad a Buy!

QB Drew Lock: QB2, priority FA, because QB is so deep we can look to add Lock for bye week/injury replacement! With a full arsenal around him he is being set up to succeed, let’s hope he is up to the task!

RB Melvin Gordon: RB2, 9-10% auction, round 5, Gordon finds a new home in the same division. Narrative street truthers are salivating at the Broncos-Chargers matchups this season! Gordon is an upgrade to the RB group, but his value will be correlated to Lock’s success!

RB Phillip Lindsay: RB4, 4% auction, round 9-10, Lindsay can still be utilized as a FLEX in a deep league but is a nice bench stash being part of what should be a good offense. He will enter RB2 territory if Gordon were to miss time!

WR Courtland Sutton: WR2, 13-14% auction, round 3, Sutton had a breakout season and became one of the highest ranks risers from 2019 to 2020. Surrounded by good complimentary pieces, some drafters have shied away but I think it will only help him as he should still dominate targets in this offense.

WR Jerry Jeudy: WR4, 4-5% auction, round 10, Jeudy somehow lasted to Denver at 15th overall. This was an easy selection for the Broncos as he was arguably the most pro-ready WR prospect in the draft! A great compliment to Sutton, Drew Lock is a lucky man!

WR KJ Hamler: Priority FA, Hamler is a unique talent with amazing speed, another piece of this offense that has cemented Denver’s trust in Drew Lock! Denver got him in the 2nd even after landing Jeudy! Best ball stash, I’m very exciting to see what he is able to do in the NFL!

TE Noah Fant: Low-TE1, 2% auction, round 12, impressive rookie campaigns are rare for TEs but he is very athletic and really adds to the versatility of Denver’s offensive core. I’ll look for him to improve on a successful year 1.

It’s all on Drew Lock, Denver believes that he is their guy. I will not hesitate to pounce on Lock this year, it could payoff in a big way! Not much to lose taking a chance on him as your QB2.

Kansas City Chiefs

The reigning super bowl champs are a BIG BUY! Patrick Mahomes alone gives each piece of the core upside, but upside exists already with high caliber talent surrounding the big-armed Mahomes!

QB Patrick Mahomes: The QB1, my QB1, 10% Auction, round 4, I typically like to wait on QB but Mahomes (like Lamar Jackson) are very tempting if you absolutely love your first 3 picks. A full aresenal surrounds this dynamic thrower. I don’t see any SB hangover in KC!

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: RB1, 24-26% auction, late round 1, CEH was part of the monster LSU national champion team, KC thought so too by selecting him as the 1st RB in the draft! This is significant because of the RB class that he was a part of.

Andy Reid’s RB history speaks for itself! CEH is a pass catching back in an elite offense where he scoring upside for himself as well as rushing upside at the end of games when KC has a big league. He is no-brainer top 10 RB worthy of 1st round selection!

RB Darrel Williams: late round-$1 Auction stash.  We want players in elite offenses such as this! If CEH busts as a rookie or misses time, both become potential FLEX options or more!

WR Tyreek Hill: WR1 (my WR3), 21-22% auction, round 2, Hill is simultaneously a floor and ceiling play each week. He can bust a matchup wide open with his big play and YAC ability! I hope to see a lot of peace signs from him this season!

WRs Mecole Hardman (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 13) and Sammy Watkins (WR5, $1-2 auction, end of bench WR stash) present massive boom bust potential, both are Best Ball targets and will big trade prices throughout the season! Health is Watkins main concern as targets is Hardman’s.

TE Travis Kelce: The TE1, 15-16% auction, round 2, Kelce like Kittle is worth the 2nd round selection, TE is deep but these 2 are in a tier of their own as they can be true difference makers week to week! How is a defense supposed to stop this team?!

High scoring contests seem likely, should be enough feasting to go around but any opposing teams offensive weapons in general have inherent upside against the Chiefs since teams will have to be aggressive if they want to have a shot against KC! Fun will be had if your roster some Chiefs!