Denver Broncos

Dynasty Destinations: Derrick Henry

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Dynasty Destinations: Derrick Henry

By John McGlynn

 

The Tennessee Titans are rumored to be shopping Derrick “King” Henry this off-season in what feels like a rebuilding move. That combined with other Titans players getting released/waived further shows this to be true. My focus in this article is King Henry, as I have a handful of destinations I see him fitting in quite nicely. Here are my top 5 destinations for the superstar running back.

 

 

Buffalo Bills

I start off with my #1 destination.. the Buffalo Bills. They should absolutely be on the phone kicking the wheels on the King Henry freight train while it's still in the station. Everyone knows that the Bills have one of the most powerful offenses in the league. Josh Allen has been playing hero ball since his slow start in year one and two. He's on fire now, but how long can that last? How long can Allen hang in the pocket and throw missiles to Diggs with defensive lineman and linebackers hanging all over him? How many times can he get his elbow yanked mid throw before his elbow injuries go from a weekly scare to a long term serious injury? What can the Bills do to fix this offense?

The answer to the question of how do we keep Josh Allen safe is just a phone call away for Bills General Manager Brandon Beane. That phone call should go as follows. “Ran, Brandon Beane here. I need to set up a play action offense to give Josh Allen time in the pocket and I need Derrick Henry in my backfield to do that?” And before you say anything about the salary cap and Derrick Henry’s $10mil and the Bills already negative cap number, just remember that the New Orleans Saints operate in the negative every off-season it seems. Heck.. they aren't even close to the powerhouse team that the Bills are. We all know the salary cap is a fake number that a savvy numbers guy can magically make work with a ballpoint pen.

 

 

Now imagine if the Bills do find a way to get the King, his 300 attempts, his 1500+ yards, his 15+ touchdowns, and his long speed. Not to mention the peace of mind it will give Josh Allen in the pocket. Now imagine they are ables to draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Quenton Johnston at pick 27. After that they complete their draft with a handful of offensive linemen. The Bills offensive depth chart just became more unstoppable than it seemingly was before. 

The Bills always seem to be rumored to be the market for a game changing running back. This is their chance in a Super Bowl-or-Bust type of move. I cannot think of a better way to improve this offense than to add the King of moving the football and then opting to just plug the need at wide receiver in the draft. The Bills can't be scared to go for broke as losing to the Bengals and the Chiefs in the playoffs is getting old. Bills Mafia would be jumping for joy if this were made into a reality. Heck.. I might join the Bills Mafia myself if King Henry is wearing a Buffalo jersey next season. 

 

 

Miami Dolphins

Miami is another team that could really use a running back like Henry. This is a powerful offense that funnels through Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Keeping Tua upright is obviously the priority of the Dolphins and stuffing three hundred plugs carried down the opponents interior defense would definitly achieve that goal. They have the money/cap space, and Henry can certainly help control the clock when Miami needs it most.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Moving on from Miles Sanders is something we can see the Eagles doing. Sanders did just fine behind one of the leagues best offensive lines however, he is no Derrick Henry. Sanders averaged about 30 receptions over the last four seasons, and even though Henry is not known to be a PPR machine, he has shown soft hands when he has been targeted. In this high-powered offense, and with a young and very mobile Jalen Hurts, keeping Henry bottled up in the backfield would be almost impossible. 

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon is rumored to be a cut candidate in Cincinnati. He did regress somewhat last season, but being part of this finely tuned, well oiled machine, there was no excuse why Mixon failed to gain a thousand yards. He had one historic game last year that accounted for a huge chunk of his stats. Samaje Perine could have a chance to prove himself if the Bengals move on from Mixon, but having a raging bull in the backfield all revved up and ready to go would be a welcome site for every Bengals fanatic.

 

Denver Broncos

The Broncos had some high hopes for Javonte Williams last season, but he suffered a terrible injury that tore multiple ligaments in his knee. As we saw with JK Dobbins, this injury might take time to heal. A new ground and pound offense, under new Coach Sean Payton could be the buffer the Broncos need until Javonte is ready to return. Russell Wilson is use to playing with a workhorse back like Marshawn Lynch, and having the pressure lifted off Wilson as the centerpiece of the offense might right the ship for the whole franchise. Let Russ cook and let Broncos Country ride on the back of King Henry.       

 

Three’s Company? 

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Three's Company? 

By Joe Goodwin

At this point in the fantasy football cycle, you are probably being overloaded with the amount of information that is available to you.  One article claims a player is a “league winner,” while another puts that same players on the “Do Not Draft” list.

Needless to say, conflicting information can be troublesome for most fantasy managers.

A fantasy point that always gives me pause is the idea that an offense can have multiple high-end fantasy producers all on the same field.

I looked into that very premise to determine if that is true or not.

Last year, I found 2 examples of a fantasy explosion (3 receivers in the top 36 and a RB in the top 24) from one team:

Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase (WR5, 305 pts), Tee Higgins (WR24, 219 pts), Tyler Boyd (WR31, 183 pts) and Joe Mixon (RB4, 288 pts).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans (WR9, 262 pts), Chris Godwin (WR15, 242 pts), Rob Gronkowski (TE7, 171 pts) and Leonard Fournette (RB6, 343 pts).

I should also mention that the Pittsburgh Steelers were very close to qualifying for this study:

Diontae Johnson (WR8, 274 pts), Chase Claypool (WR37), Pat Friermuth (TE13) and Najee Harris (RB3, 300 points).

So, with these examples, can we predict whether these teams can produce in that same manner:

Las Vegas: DaVante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs

Pittsburgh: Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Chase Claypool, Pat Friermuth, Najee Harris

Philadelphia: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders

Buffalo: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Know, Devin Singletary

Denver: Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Javonte Williams

Minnesota: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith, Dalvin Cook

Cincinnati: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon

With the 2 teams that accomplished that feat last year, both were led by top tier quarterbacks Tom Brady (QB3) and Joe Burrow (QB8) with offenses that finished 2nd and 7th respectively in total points and 1st and 7th in passing yards.  And, each team had a run game that was overall in the bottom 10 of the league (Tampa Bay was 25th and Cincinnati was 22nd)

So, with all that being said, what key elements are we looking for in order for a team to support 3 top 36 receivers?

Key Point 1: A team with the requisite 3 receivers to achieve Top 36 WR or Top 12 TE

Key Point 2: Top Tier QB 

Key Point 3: Overall Offenses that finish in the top ten in total points and passing yards

Key Point 4: Run Offense is bottom 10 of the league

As we analyze each team and how they relate to each key point, let’s see where we stand:

Oakland: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{I’m sure some would argue that Carr is a top tier qb, but are you drafting him in your top 8 qb’s?}

Pittsburgh: Point 1, Point 4

{Pitt has the weakest qb and middle of the pack offense}

Philadelphia: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{Jalen Hurts will have to prove he can be top tier first}

Buffalo: Point 1, Point 2, Point 3

{Run game is strong on Buffalo}

Denver: Point 1, Point 2

{Hard to project with the massive upgrade in QB in the offseason on where the offense will finish; Seattle was middle tier in offense stats}

Minnesota: Point 1

{This is not a dart at Cousins, more like a “wait and see” approach with the new offense}

Cincinnati: Point 1, 2, 3, 4

{Let’s hope the improved offensive line helps continue to the trend}

Based on this data, the four teams most likely to support 3 top 36 receivers are: Cincinnati, Oakland, Philadelphia and Buffalo.  

So, if you try to convince yourself to draft Jeudy from Denver or Claypool from Pittsburgh later in your draft in the hopes they can pay off….chances are more likely they will not.

And, if you want to wait a few rounds and grab a receiver like DeVonta Smith and Tyler Boyd after the 7th round, chances are good they may hit as a top 36 receiver.

Remember the numbers don’t lie!!  Only 2 NFL teams supported multiple fantasy starters in one lineup last year and most likely, that trend will continue again this year.

 

As always, “Come and knock on my door” if you need any fantasy help @JGoody77 on Twitter

 

Is Russ Still an Elite Dynasty QB?

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Is Russ Still an Elite Dynasty QB?

By Zach Kurt

Russel Wilson has been considered an elite QB in the NFL for almost a decade, but is he still considered an elite fantasy option? According to SuperFlex ADP he is not, but I am here to change your mind!

In 2020 Russell Wilson was the overall QB3 in SuperFlex Dynasty leagues. He is now being drafted as the QB9 in dynasty Superflex leagues. Why is it that over the last two seasons his stock has plummeted? 

In the 2020 season, Russel Wilson finished as the QB6 which is exactly what you want from your elite QBs. Before he got hurt in the 2021 season, he was averaging just short of 27 PPG. Josh Allen, the QB1 in the 2021 season, averaged 23.7 PPG.  It is fair to say that Russ was off to a hot start before this injury and yet his stock has plummeted steadily.  

Russ had an injury on his throwing hand so it was expected he would have a tough road to recovery. Although he only missed 3 games you could see it impacting his game until about week 15 where he posted 20, 34, and 29 fantasy points in his last 3 games. Is it because of the trade to the Broncos? He has a better receiving core this year vs the Seahawks of last year. 

Broncos Offense: Jerry Juedy, Cortland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Albert O, Javonte Williams and K.J. Hamler.
2021 Seahawks Offense: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Gerald Everett, Chris Carson, and Dee Eskridge. 

I would prefer the Denver Broncos supporting cast as a whole. Without Pete Caroll holding Russ back, wouldn’t we expect Russ to have more production? The Broncos were top 12 in pass attempts last year, which bodes well for Wilson. Russ still has rushing upside, elite attributes, and the best supporting cast he has had in several years. 

Let’s talk about his age in comparison to the guys going in front of him, and how they are significantly younger than him. Wilson is 33 years old but in terms of a QB, he still has a good 5-7 years of high level play. I believe that Russ should be going in the same range as Jackson, Murray, Burrow and ahead of Dak - definitely not behind them by almost a whole round. 

Wilson has finished 8 of his last 9 seasons as a top-10 QB. The only turning point in the ninth season was because of his injury. He is being under drafted in Dynasty and redraft right now. When Russ is healthy, he is as consistent as anyone in the league. The dip is not warranted in my opinion, but recency bias tends to control ADP pretty heavily. Go buy LOW on Wilson as an elite QB and you will reap the benefits.

AFC West Predictions for 2022

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AFC West Predictions for 2022

By Tim Lazenby

Almost any expert is in agreement that the AFC West will be the most competitive division in the NFL in 2022.  Featuring the already strong Kansas City Chiefs, all three other teams have made massive improvements to compete.  Exploding with talent, how will the four fair in the upcoming season?  I haven’t been this excited to watch a division battle it out in quite some time.  Let’s discuss.

Denver Broncos

Record in 2021: 7-10-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 9-8-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

Obviously Russell Wilson makes this team loads better, and the continued growth of this young receiver core is very appealing.  Let’s not forget about Javonte Williams and Denver’s criminally underrated defense.  The glaring weakness is next year’s draft capital.  In a loaded draft class, the Broncos will be watching as the Seattle Seahawks use Denver’s first and second round picks.  Russell Wilson had better be the long term solution or this plan has backfired tremendously.

Situation to Watch

With Wilson taking almost every headline in the mile high city, my attention actually focuses elsewhere.  Patrick Surtain was an absolute gem last season and many people didn’t notice.  Although he’s not at the level of players like Jalen Ramsey yet, the rookie was still very dominant.  The once mighty Denver defense has not been up to snuff in the past few seasons, but the future looks bright with Surtain at corner.

Conclusion

There’s no doubt in my mind that this team will improve.  There’s almost no area in which they regressed in the offseason and the team hasn’t had a star quality quarterback since Peyton Manning led the charge.  If they were in any other division, the record would be even better, but this squad just won’t measure as well as a couple others.  The record will look brighter, but it won’t be enough in 2022.

Kansas City Chiefs

Record in 2021: 12-5-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 10-7-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

The trio of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid gives even the worst team in the NFL a chance at glory.  Creed Humphrey is also a big reason for the success of the offense.  But JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore are not a replacement for Tyreek Hill.  And even though the group is not terrible, it’s hard not to see it as a weakness when you consider what they had before.

Situation to Watch

I will be closely monitoring the backfield moving forward.  If I’m being honest, I’m still a Clyde Edwards-Helaire truther, but signing Ronald Jones is the final nail in the coffin that tells me CEH will not succeed until he moves on.  This team will have to lean on the ground game more now than ever to make up for the loss of dynamic Tyreek Hill.

Conclusion

Although this team will take a step back or two, trading away the Cheetah will not cause this team to buckle.  The once guaranteed champion of the AFC West, however, will be a thing of the past.  With the other three improving, the Chiefs are far and away the least improved, leaving someone else to take the lead next season.

Las Vegas Raiders

Record in 2021: 10-7-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

If you thought the Raiders’ offense showed promise last year, you’re in for an awakening.  Not a rude awakening, mind you, but a breath of fresh air.  Las Vegas offensive stars were largely unheralded, but it’s a new day with Davante Adams in town.  That being said, the defense let this team down more than anything.  There are studs like Maxx Crosby but the loss of Yannick Ngakoue hurts.

Situation to Watch

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t watching the connection of Derek Carr and Davante Adams.  You have to believe Adams will take a step down now that he’s not with Aaron Rodgers, but let’s not forget the bromance between he and bestie Carr going all the way back to college.  In a side note, I’ll also be watching Josh Jacobs closely.  Las Vegas not picking up his fifth year option is flat out stupid.  I’m sure he’ll make them regret it.

Conclusion

Make no mistake, in this division anyone has a chance to take the lead, but I don’t think it will be the Raiders.  Even I question my prediction of 8-9-0.  How will they do worse than last season even though they’re improved?  Much like the Broncos, the Raiders play in this division, which is a flat out juggernaut.  The Raiders, to make things worse, have the 7th toughest schedule in the entire league.  I predict three straight losses out of the gate, making it really hard to succeed in the standings.

Los Angeles Chargers

Record in 2021: 9-8-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 14-3-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

I need to be honest when I say this is my favorite team.  That being said, I believe I am an impartial writer.  I have seen the woes before and do not always see the light with this squad.  Now that you know this, the number of strengths are at the top of the league.  The offense led by Justin Herbert and defense led by Derwin James equals flat out dominance.  If I have to pick a weakness, it’s Brandon Staley’s fourth down guts.  His boldness cost the team greatly in 2021 and he needs to be more conservative.

Situation to Watch

I think most fans will be watching for the newest additions on defense like JC Jackson, Khalil Mack and Sebastian Joseph Day; and rightfully so.  I, however, will be watching for first round pick Zion Johnson out of Boston College.  The solidification of the offensive line was their biggest need and this kid dazzled me at the combine.  When I threw his name out there on twitter on March 4th, I may have been the biggest believer that wasn’t being paid to analyze the situation.

Conclusion

Part of me wants to be cautious.  I’ve had so many times watching my favorite teams across all pro sports when I felt there was a giant there only to be disappointed.  But this time, I think I’m right in my assessment.  The three losses I predicted for this team were generous.  On a rookie contract for Justin Herbert, this team is Super Bowl or bust and I don’t think there will be a bust in 2022.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

AFC West Best Values

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AFC West Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

We’ve talked about many values in every single division in the National Football League but one.  And in many ways, I’ve saved the best for last.  Let’s get into it.  It can’t be denied any further.  We just have to talk about the AFC West, not only my favorite division in football, but the most exciting one in many people’s eyes.  In a division ripe with skilled players all over, it’s not hard to find talent on any of these teams.  But, finding the value players isn’t that hard either.  Here is one player from each team in the AFC West who is, in my opinion, the best value player on his squad.

 

Denver Broncos: Tight End - Albert Okwuegbunam

Since Peyton Manning gifted them a Super Bowl win, the Denver Broncos just haven’t been able to get it together.  A regular carousel of coaches and quarterbacks have entered and left the organization, making success a difficult task for the Broncos.  But, with the addition of one of the best quarterbacks of his era, Russell Wilson is sure to give Denver their best chance at success.  Many have heard, “Let there be light” after the trade.  I am certain that the stocks of Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton have to go up, but there is a player who will improve that isn’t being spoken of nearly enough.  Now that Noah Fant was packaged in the deal that brought Wilson to town, Albert Okwuegbunam is ready to step into the spotlight and give the Broncos some voltage at tight end.

Now, I mean no disrespect toward Noah Fant; in fact, I love Fant.  He’s tremendously talented and he’ll certainly be leaned on in Seattle.  What I mean is that Albert O will finally shine as he isn’t in the shadow of Fant anymore.  If you didn’t watch many Broncos games, you should know that despite being the second tight end on the squad, Albert O performed better than many starting tight ends in the league.  And while it’s true that Russell Wilson doesn’t typically lean on tight ends, it doesn’t mean that he ignores them completely.  I also believe that teams will be all too eager to shadow Jeudy and Sutton, leaving the door open for Albert O to score a few key touchdowns.  And at such a talent starved position when it comes to fantasy, we have to be especially mindful of values at tight end.  Albert Okbuegbunam won’t be one of the top options at tight end league wide, but he’ll be one that could help you win a few weeks and the price tag isn’t one that will hurt the pocketbook too much.

Kansas City Chiefs: Running Back - Ronald Jones

Funny isn’t the word, but I’m going to use it anyway.  It’s funny how the Kansas City Chiefs reigned unanimously in the division among experts, and now, some have them as low as third.  While I don’t believe the notion that the Chiefs are dead in the water or even close to it, there is some reason to feel unsettled at the state of affairs in Kansas City.  While the rest of the AFC West has made mega moves to contend, the Chiefs have done the opposite by trading away the Cheetah, Tyreek Hill.  Surely this move will help their future, but the present is going to bring suffering.

I still think that the Chiefs are the second best team in the division and you’re always in it with Mahomes and Kelce.  But, one position that hasn’t gone well is the running back.  Although the running game is successful, the starting position hasn’t given much in the way of fantasy.  Clyde Edwards-Helaire clearly isn’t the solution, much to my dismay, so the addition of Ronald Jones is noteworthy.  Do I think that Jones steals the job outright?  Probably not.  But I think, even in a committee, he’ll be relevant as he shared a backfield pretty much his whole career.  There is also the chance that he could take the job and if that happens, his value will skyrocket.  I wrote a dynasty dilemma on him, so my love for him shouldn’t be surprising.  Having him as the best value on the team is a no brainer.

 

Las Vegas Raiders: Quarterback - Derek Carr

I have to be honest with you.  I’ve never loved Derek Carr.  He’s always been one of those guys, to me, who can win you a week or two if you get lucky, but can never be one to be depended on.  The beginning of last season, I was looking quite foolish as Derek Carr was balling out.  As the season continued, he came back down to earth, further cementing my notion that he’ll never be truly fantasy relevant.  Although I’m not alone in my thought process, I don’t think I gave him enough credit for what he’s done with the resources he’d been given.  When you look at the surrounding talent from years past, he hasn’t done as poorly as I’d naively believed.  This season, it’s a different game, as the added talent is insane.

While many are still in disbelief over the utterly shocking trade of Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders fans are chanting, “Hallelujah” choruses that can be heard all the way back to Oakland.  And while Carr has had some weapons in the past, he’s never had even close to what he’s about to have at the NFL level.  It’s also even more incredible when you consider the rapport between the two that goes back to their days at Fresno.  He and bestie, Adams, should tear the league a new one.  Save the covid years, they even trained together in the off season every year.  There is a chance that the magic isn’t instant, but there is no better shot that Carr will have at greatness.  There are many who haven’t put these pieces together yet, so find one of them and get Carr at a massive discount.  The value is incredible.

 

Los Angeles Chargers: Wide Receiver - Keenan Allen

I should place a big “WARNING” sticker before you read any more as the Chargers are my favorite team.  And even though I like to think I’m quite unbiased, there is a chance that I’m starry eyed for the Bolts.  Bearing that in mind, if there is a piece of any offense in the entire league that I want a part of, it’s Justin Herbert’s crew.  From quarterback, to the running game, to the receivers, it’s high octane.  This may be the highest powered offense in the league.  So finding value is an absolute must with the Chargers.  And while I think almost anyone on this team is a value, if I have to choose one, I have to go with life long Charger, Keenan Allen.

Admittedly, I was quite stupid in my assessment of Keenan Allen for many years.  I avoided him like the plague because he was such an “injury risk”, but in truth, he just had some bad luck early on.  If you exclude his injury years in 2015 and 2016, in his entire career he’s only missed a grand total of six games.  He’s also got this weird reputation in the fantasy circles as a guy who’s been in the league forever.  Still in his twenties, Keenan Allen has plenty left in the tank.  Regarded as one of the most consistent threats to have the ball in his hands, he’s also known as one of the best route runners in the league.  Many people gloss over him in drafts or his dynasty value, but don’t make that mistake.  Biased or not, I regard him as the most underrated receiver in the league.  His current value for many people makes him an absolute steal.  He’s simply a must have and with how little it will cost you.  You just have to make the move for him.

Dynasty Dilemma: Russell Wilson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Russell Wilson

By Alex French

 

What a rush?!?! Within 3 hours 2 potential Hall of Fame quarterbacks announce their 2022 teams. Aaron Rodgers returns to Green Bay, and perhaps more influential to our fantasy teams, Russell Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have been in search of a quarterback since Peyton Manning retired. Broncos fans, rejoice! The search is over. Let’s dig into what this means for your fantasy team.

 

Reason to Sell

Injury

The 2021 season was one to forget for Wilson. Surgery on his throwing hand forced him to miss 3 games. Returning to the field sooner than many expected, Wilson’s play wasn’t quite what we’ve come to expect from the 9-time pro-bowler. However, He finished strong with 655 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, and just 1 interception over his last 3 games. He even chipped in with his legs with over 40 rushing yards. 

 

Age/Size

Russ isn't getting any younger.  At 33 years old (will be 34 midway through the season), Wilson's style of play doesn't lend to a overly long career.  He will eventually have to evolve the way he plays in order to increase his potential of longevity.  Also, as a smaller QB, he will have to limit the amount of hits he takes in the future.

 

 

Reason to Buy

Improved Talent

In 2022, he gets a much improved offensive line in Denver that allowed just 40 sacks last season, which would be the fewest number since 2012 for Wilson. With time to throw, look for Wilson to maintain the elite efficiency he’s exhibited throughout his career. Beyond just the offensive line, Wilson gets an excellent defense and plenty of offensive weapons to play with. 

Russell Wilson arrives in Denver with a head coach who just helped lead Aaron Rodgers to back to back MVP awards. If the Packers offense of the last 2 years provides a template, we should be able to project a potent offense with plenty of fantasy points to go around. We have seen Wilson thrive with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in Seattle. Now, he gets to see what he can do with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Judy, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, and a red zone target in Albert Okwuegbunm. Not to mention rising star Javonta Williams out of the backfield. 

Russell Wilson gets a fresh start, surrounded by young talent with a strong offensive line. Expect to see great things from Wilson in Denver. Perhaps the highest fantasy finish of his career. With at least 3+ years left in the tank, look to acquire Wilson in your dynasty leagues.