DeAndre Hopkins

Dynasty League’s Closing Windows

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Dynasty League's Closing Windows

By Joel Wirth

Dynasty players are all about the long view, but player values are fluctuating on a week-to-week basis. Two weeks ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown was a divisive back-end WR2 (although, I seem to recall someone extolling his virtues a while back on this very site https://dynastyprosfootball.com/objects-in-the-rear-view-mirroramon-ra-st-brown/), now he’s trading for no less than a 2023 1st plus a productive player. Paying market rate for a player today can be a clear win next week if that player’s value takes off in-between. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few players who you may want to look into trading for now before their value goes up and their trade window closes.

The Youngsters

Treylon Burks/Chris Olave

Dynasty veterans know the rule of thumb with rookie receivers is let them struggle early, then trade for them right before they learn the speed of the game, get in sync with their QB, and they start producing fantasy points. Garrett Wilson has shown us that sometimes happens sooner than we expect, even if they’re not Ja’Marr Chase-level talents. Burks and Olave could be the next two in line for feature roles. Tennessee looks like a flat out bad team and Derrick Henry looking like he’s running through molasses should lead to more passing volume and more garbage time than we’re used to with this team. Olave’s advanced metrics show a star in the making. Jameis Winston’s hideous early season inefficiency is the only thing holding him back right now. Neither of these two are exactly cheap, they still have most of their rookie draft shine, but like Wilson, they’re one elite game away from being highly coveted assets.

CeeDee Lamb/Kyle Pitts

Going into the season, Lamb and Pitts were two of the most valuable dynasty properties you could have; young, supremely talented, in great situations, and in Pitts’ case, playing an exceptionally scarce position. Real or perceived, their early season struggles have made them available for costs that would have been unthinkable on Labor Day. In one of my leagues, Pitts was traded for Darren Waller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. That offer would have been laughed at and insta-rejected not that long ago. At this point, it really can’t hurt to ask and see if they’re available at all. These two are Burks & Olave on steroids. One good game and they go back to being nigh-untouchable.

Travis Etienne

During best ball draft season, Etienne was the RB hotness. Two weeks into the season, James Robinson is unexpectedly back and Etienne is being benched in fantasy. That sound you hear is BUY LOW sirens going off. Much like Cam Akers, Robinson coming back from an Achilles injury so soon is a great story, but he’s been very inefficient, averaging less than 4 YPC. His value is being entirely propped up by touchdowns and Etienne’s high profile sure-touchdown drop on 4th down in the opener. Once those normalize, Etienne will go back to being the RB to own in Jacksonville, which will be a good thing, because…

Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville is like Old Faithful right now. You can feel the rumbling under your feet, you know the explosion is coming, you just don’t know when. Once the geyser blows, TLaw will jump up to and potentially surpass Joe Burrow status in superflex. He’s still the elite, generational prospect we saw in college and expected on Draft Day ‘21. Urban Meyer wrecked his rookie season, but even through that haze you can still see the Andrew Luck upside. If there are still doubters, relieve them of their burden.

Elijah Moore

Yes, Garrett Wilson is this week’s WR hotness, but don’t forget about Moore. He’s no less talented because he has another talented teammate in the WR room. Zach Wilson is due back imminently and we know he has more time together with Moore than Wilson. Plus, if (Zach) Wilson can live up to his draft pedigree, there will be plenty of room at the table in this offense for both to eat.

The Seasoned Vets

De’Andre Hopkins

This is simple math. After Week 3, he’ll be half way through his suspension and his managers will take an “I’ve held this long, why should I sell now” attitude, and deservedly so. If the DHop manager in your league is off to a slow start, now is the perfect time to go after him.

Travis Kelce

A 5/50/0 line in a prime time game is as bad as Kelce’s ever going to look, and for a Tight End, it’s still really not bad at all. You probably have until exactly 1:00 PM EDT Sunday to get him at the most modest of discounts. Be sure to mention how positively elderly Kelce is looking in your proposal.

Chris Godwin

The hamstring injury is legitimately the best thing that could have happened to him, forcing the Bucs to give his reconstructed knee additional time to heal. Like DHop, if his manager is off to a slow start and you can afford the downtime, see what it would take to get Godwin onto your roster.

D.J. Moore

He’s the same guy he’s always been. Carolina’s offense has unsurprisingly struggled coming together early, despite the expectations of default QB improvement. If Moore is the victim of over-inflated pre-season expectations, get him now before the Panthers pull it together.

Diontae Johnson

Speaking of guys who are what they’ve always been… You’ll likely have to wait until next week to make this deal go down since he played Thursday, but he has double digit targets in every game so far. The Steelers now have a “mini-bye” to self-scout and figure out how to start scoring touchdowns. Coming back against the Jets won’t hurt that effort, but it may tank your chances of trading for Diontae at value once he goes off.

Donovan Peoples-Jones

We end with a low cost/no cost long term stash. The window isn’t closing on this one so much as slowly shimmying down the sill. DPJ’s deep threat talents are a terrible match for Jacoby Brissett’s game-manager arm. Once Deshaun Watson’s suspension is over, look for him to get DPJ involved in the offense in ways he currently cannot be.

NFC West 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC West Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We now head west to cover our 3rd  division! We will be covering the NFC West but first here are some reminders about what my breakdowns are all about:

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Seattle Seahawks

I want to BUY offense with elite QBs; Russell Wilson is elite! Seattle remains a BUY despite some question marks.

QB Russell Wilson: QB1 6-7% auction budget, round 6-7, one of absolute favorite players. Efficient passing and rushing ability makes him a defensive nightmare. As long as Wilson is playing football at a high level. I honestly don’t care how corny he is. Absolute Stud!

RBs Chris Carson (RB2, 10-11%, round 4, fade at his current ADP), Rashaad Penny (priority FA), and Carlos Hyde (RB6, $1 deep auction, round 14/priority FA). This situation is a big mess. Carson’s health is a big concern for me. I love the player but hate the ADP. As of now I can’t imagine leaving a draft with him as my RB2. RB3 and exercise patience, sure.

However this is difficult to justify considering his ADP. Any RB in this offense that gets a decent work load is worth owning because Russell Wilson opens up the offense extremely well.

Carson and Penny's health issues are legitimately worrisome and in the first 5 rounds (Carson being a round 3-4 pick) I want to be as least risk averse as possible. Hyde may start the season as a tremendous value, get him for $1 in an auction, get him as the last RB on your bench and hope he does well week 1 and sell high baby!

WRs Tyler Lockett: (WR2, PPR stud, 14-15% auction, round 5) and DK Metcalf (low end WR2/high WR3, 11-12% auction budget, round 6, Best Ball target) are very different players and compliment eachother incredibly well; Russell Wilson is a lucky man. This duo will continue to shine and likely outperform their ADP. I prefer Lockett as a more reliable week to week player.

TEs Will Dissly, Greg Olsen, and Jacob Hollister are all undraftable in 12 team non-TE premium leagues and should be considered priority FAs. I want pieces of this offense so keep a close eye!

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals come in as a BIG BUY this year, already trending up, the addition of DeAndre Hopkins puts them over the top!

QB Kyler Murray: QB1, 6-7% auction budget, Round 6, an impressive rookie campaign was a wonderful showing of how he won the bet on himself choosing to go into the NFL rather than the MLB. First world problems, am I right? Murray will be the primary beneficiary of this offense that is ready to feast with one of the league best WR trios.

RB Kenyan Drake: Low-end RB1/high-RB2, 18-20% auction, early round 2, plenty of upside being the lead RB in this high powered offense. Expect Drake to have favorable looks as opposing defenses need to account for Murray’s rushing ability and the lethal trio of WRs.

RB backups Chase Edmonds (RB5, 1-2% auction, round 13), and Eno Benjamin (RB6, $1 deep auction) are late round stashes, Edmonds stash in all leagues, Benjamin deep league stash.

WR DeAndre Hopkins: WR1, 23-24% auction, late round 1,

WR Christian Kirk: WR3, 6-7%, round 8

WR Larry Fitzgerald: WR5, $1, round 14

Hopkins remains an elite WR with a new team and will lead this fantastic trio of WRs. Kirk is an excellent complimentary piece opposite Hopkins with big play ability. Fitzgerald is still solid, the addition of Hopkins hurt his targets/catches upside, but certainly worth grabbing at the end of drafts.

San Francisco 49ers

I love me a Kyle Shanahan offense but for the offense I consider them NEUTRAL overall. Fair ADP all around.

QB Jimmy Garroppolo: QB2, priority FA bye week/injury replacement candidate, I wish Jimmy G was as consistently useful for fantasy as he is handsome. Wait what? Never mind...Perhaps I’m too low on him but maybe I’m too distracted by his beautiful smile. *slapping myself in the head* STICK TO THE FOOTBALL dang it!! Good weapons, better looks, I wish Deebo was 100% (don’t we all)

RB Raheem Mostert: Low-RB2, high-RB3, 9-10% auction, round 7, a very unique career path has lead him to be a starter in a good offense. He’s a great story of determination and perseverance. He would be valued higher if he wasn’t in such a crowded backfield.

RB Tevin Coleman: RB4, 2-3% auction, round 9/10, I really love the idea of Tevin Coleman, but the reality of Tevin Coleman often leaves much to be desired. Despite mixed success, struggles with health, and being in a crowded backfield, he is still a fine depth RB selection.

RB Jerick McKinnon: RB5, $1, end of bench RB/priority FA (especially if Mostert/Coleman were to miss time). Despite not having played in an NFL game in 2 years, he is still an intriguing player, same cautions as above, but a cheap option in a good offensive system seems like a smart move.

WR Deebo Samuel: WR4, 3-4% auction, round 10, the versatile playmaker is being valued below ADP since he will start the season nursing a broken foot. If you love your draft depth and he is still available, get him and be patient, enjoy him as a flex when healthy or use him as trade bait. Love him but wish he were 100%!

WR Brandon Aiyuk: WR5, 2-3%, round 12, this dynamic prospect enters into a great opportunity with Deebo missing time. Solid depth stash can be used as a trade bait early on to a WR needy team.

TE George Kittle: TE1, 12-13%, round 2, Kittle is awesome he is worth the cost, he has that crazy look in his eye (in a good way) and is heat seeking missle that wants to destroy everything it’s way. Sign me up!

Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay leads the way. Woods and Kupp are trending up. Jared Goff could go off. Henderson and Akers are ankle breakers. Tyler Higbee will be a bust, his ADP I do not trust. This NEUTRAL offensive core should give fantasy points galore.

QB Jared Goff: High-QB2, $1, deep league late round stash, Best Ball target. Surrounded by great weapons and a with an offensive-minded head coach, Goff could be an absolute steal in drafts!

RB Cam Akers: RB3, 5-6% auction, round 8, an intriguing prospect lands in a great offense. In the 2nd round of the 2020 draft The Rams drafted Cam Akers as their first selection which is significant since they did not own a 1st rounder. He has big shoes to fill with Gurley gone, however he lands in a crowded backfield.

RB Darrell Henderson: RB3 if robust WR with elite TE, ideal RB4, 5-6% auction, round 9, left much to be desired last year, perhaps expectations were too high for him. He is one of the first player I add to my queue in drafts. Am I the only one who uses the queue?!

WR Robert Woods: Low-WR1, high WR2, PPR target, 14-15 %, round 4, if he falls to round 5 smash his name and await the groans in the draft chat. Am I the only one who looks at the draft chat during a draft?!

WR Cooper Kupp: WR2, 13-14%, round 5, Kupp and Goff have unique chemistry, having the QBs’ eye and trust is a quality trait. Draft him with confidence!

TE Tyler Higbee: High-TE2 for me, 2-3% auction, round 11, generally for me he is a fade. We can’t talk about Higbee without mentioning the way he ended his season last year. It was literally unbelievable! Dude balled out! Gerald Everett was injured during that span. Can Higbee do it again? Sure, maybe, good offense and should get good matchups. I just really worry that consensus rankings and ADP hold too much recency bias. Look, if he falls far enough I will not hesitate to draft him. He is a fade at his current ADP but every draft is different, prepare to zig when the draft zags. TE Gerald Everett is no slouch, priority FA; I want to keep a close eye on players in good offenses!

It’s In The Cards

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It’s In The Cards

By Matt Kelley

The Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, L.A. Rams, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all had a  common thread when it came to fantasy WR production last season. Do you know what it was?  They all sustained two top 24 fantasy wide receivers. Five teams accomplished this in 2018 as well. So what leads to the ability for these teams to produce multiple top-end fantasy wide receivers, and what new team has the chance to provide this fantasy value this season? Let's take a look...

Pass Volume:

Of the four teams above, three of them were in the top-5 of pass attempts in the NFL last season. The lone team not in there was Detroit who finished with the 16th most pass attempts per game (35.7); 4 attempts less per game than Tampa Bay (39.4). Matthew Stafford only started eight games for the Lions before falling victim to a back injury. Through eight games, Stafford averaged about 36.4 pass attempts per game. While Stafford wasn’t throwing at a considerably higher pace, it’s likely the Lions would have thrown more in general if not for having to turn to David Blough and Jeff Driskel.  

Targets: 

The breakdown of targets for the players inside the top-24 WRs on these teams is as follows:

Atlanta Falcons: 

Calvin Ridley: 93 targets, 17.7% target share, 63 receptions

Julio Jones: 157 targets, 25.7% target share,99 receptions

Detroit Lions: 

Kenny Golladay: 116 targets, 21.1% target share, 65 receptions

Marvin Jones: 91 targets, 20.2% target share, 62 receptions

Los Angeles Rams: 

Cooper Kupp: 135 targets, 21.8% target share, 94 receptions

Robert Woods: 139 targets, 23.4% target share, 90 receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 

Chris Godwin: 121 targets, 22.2% target share, 86 receptions

Mike Evans: 118 targets, 23.8% target share, 67 receptions

The team most unlikely to repeat in this group based on targets is Detroit. While both players are seeing a great target %, the low receptions mean they’ll need to make up for reception totals in half and full PPR settings in an effort to repeat. Additionally, Davante Adams, Odell Beckham Jr, and Tyreek Hill all finished outside of the top-24 last season, largely due to injury. There’s a strong chance those WRs find their way back inside the top-24, provided they have healthy seasons. Second year WRs D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown, and Terry McLaurin are all also threats to bolster their way into the conversation. 

Defense:

The more points a defense allows, the more an offense has to go back onto the field. Pretty simple. So for fantasy purposes, give us some bad defenses, some negative game scripts, and let those passes fly. All four teams mentioned above were in the bottom half of the league in points given up. While Tampa’s defense could improve as it’s unlikely Tom Brady throws for 30 interceptions...a la Jameis Winston, the efficiency should skyrocket and there will be enough NFC South shootouts to keep both Evans and Godwin well fed. 

What team can find their way into this list for 2020?

Arizona Cardinals: 

                   

The Arizona Cardinals acquired Pro Bowl WR DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. Hopkins has seen 150 targets in each of the last five seasons. Yes, this is a different offense, however Arizona let up the 28th most points in the league, and they’ll need to throw to get back into games. While the Cardinals only threw the 18th most pass attempts in the league last season, 2nd year QB Kyler Murray should take a step forward in terms of taking less sacks, being more efficient, and seeing offensive drives continue, thus pass attempts will go up. 3rd year WR Christian Kirk fits the bill to join Hopkins as a top-24 WR. Kirk saw 108 targets for a 24.5% target share last season. With the addition of Hopkins, he’ll no longer need to operate as the team's WR1. While he may lose part of that target share % with Hopkins being a target hog, there will be plenty of volume and more quality targets for Kirk as Hopkins will likely draw top coverage. Kirk had 11 redzone receptions last season, 9th most in the NFL. He’s already a trusted target for Murray in the most important part of the field and is a great candidate to see a positive bump in touchdowns. Kirk is a steal right now in drafts going as WR38 and pick 95 overall in PPR leagues. Look for the Cardinals duo to join the ranks of the best fantasy WR tandems in the league.

Houston, We DON’T Have a Problem.

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Houston, We DON'T Have a Problem.

By Matt Kelley 

Oh Houston, what have you done?...And by Houston, I mean Bill O’Brien.

The Texans added the title of ‘general manager’ to the duties of O’Brien in January of this year, and he’s been very active. Last year, it seemed like O’Brien was already running the show from the GM office even though it wasn’t official. The Texans moved a number of draft picks for left tackle Laremy Tunsil, and traded star pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney before last season began.

Ok, that’s cool.

Since officially becoming GM, O’Brien has removed wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who had at least 1,000 receiving yards every year since 2014, except 2016 (the Tom Savage, Brock Osweiler, and Brandon Weeden QB season...understandable). In the trade for Hopkins, the Texans acquired running back David Johnson (the Texans took on his entire salary) from the Arizona Cardinals along with draft compensation. O’Brien then shopped the 57th overall pick in this year's draft for WR Brandin Cooks from the Los Angeles Rams. The Texans continued to try to bolster their WR depth by signing free agent Randall Cobb to a three year deal.

Need a flow chart yet?

All of that said, for all of O’Brien’s wheeling and dealing, the Texans still have Deshaun Watson at QB, and he’s practically the only reason Texans fans have any sanity left.

Yada, yada, yada...

What does all of this mean for Watson and your fantasy squad? He’s been a perennial fantasy stud the last two seasons, and I’m here to tell you that isn’t about to change. Do not press the panic button. 

Watson is an outlier: 

Deshaun Watson, mercifully for Texans fans and delightfully for fantasy managers, took over the Texans QB job in 2017. Although his season was cut short by an ACL injury, in his seven starts he had 21 total touchdowns, and the Texans knew they had something special. In 2018, Watson accounted for 31 total TD’s to only nine interceptions and added 551 rushing yards. Last season, Watson again accounted for more than 30 total TD’s, 12 INT’s, and another 400 plus yards on the ground, leading him to an overall QB4 finish in the season for fantasy (15 starts).

Perhaps the most impressive part is that Watson put up these numbers on around 500 pass attempts in each of the last two seasons. Simply put, Watson is an outlier. Watson’s passing TD% over the last two seasons has been 5.1% and 5.3%, respectively. Only Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, and Patrick Mahomes finished both 2018 and 2019 with a passing TD% over 5%, along with Watson. Pretty good company. Of that group, only Tannehill (23 starts), Brees (26 starts), and Wilson (started every game) had fewer pass attempts than Watson. 

Watson has to do MORE: 

Asking Watson to produce more is a pretty big ask, but he’s simply going to have to do so. The departure of WR Deandre Hopkins can’t be understated. New addition WR Brandin Cooks has four seasons over 1,000 receiving yards. Randall Cobb has one season (2014) of such a mark. After that, no pass catcher on the Texans has surpassed the 1,000 yard receiving mark. While that sounds daunting, Cooks, Will Fuller, and Kenny Stills all represent deep threats. Stills ranked 7th in yards per target, Fuller 18th, and Cooks 49th (though he was 9th in 2018). Watson’s deep ball completion percentage was at 42%, which was good enough to rank him at 7th overall.

Watson has taken 106 sacks over the last two seasons. Part of that has been the offensive line and part of that has been the learning curve of getting rid of the ball quickly. The addition of LT Laremy Tunsil helped remarkably last season as he only allowed a pressure once every 28 snaps per Pro Football Focus. Tunsil also led the league in penalties (20, playoffs included). Penalties, and at best, average offensive line play at the other positions is likely to create a pronounced opportunity for Watson to use his legs and extend plays. Watson has proven he can take off and run. With these deep threat receivers, he’ll need to buy time to chuck it down the field. 

Dynasty outlook: 

Watson is still a top five fantasy QB. He’ll only be 25 years old at the start of the season, and while his ceiling isn’t that of Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson right now, he’s still an elite talent and a difference maker at the position. A lot of fantasy managers have Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and even Russell Wilson ahead of Watson in their ranks. While I wouldn’t fault anyone for deciding on those players over Watson...they all have their own arguments...Watson is as much of a consistent, solid value that you can hope to find within this draft range.

If there’s a league mate that is down on Watson’s value because of his surrounding cast, go after him now, as it may well be the lowest value you’ll be able to secure Watson at for a while. Deshaun represents a giant tier break from players like Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, and Carson Wentz, all of whom are going within about 28 picks of Watson. I can’t fault you for subscribing to the late round QB theory while drafting a team in a one QB league. However, if you’re in a league that allows you to start more than one QB, Watson is an enormous value that will provide long-standing, difference-making numbers for your fantasy team.