Davis Mills

AFC South Best Values

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AFC South Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

Now that we’re knee deep into the off season, many of us are looking for any taste of fantasy football relevance whatsoever.  A wise dynasty manager, however, needs more than just a taste to satisfy their football hunger pains.  We, as managers, should always be looking to improve our ever evolving fantasy franchises.  Whether you are trying to get out of the basement, finally be a playoff contender or even repeat as champion, the common thread is that a winning manager doesn’t sit on his riches.  And in this crucial time before the NFL Entry Draft, you should be looking at value players to add to your team.  Today, let’s dive into the best values for each team in the AFC South.

 

Houston Texans: Quarterback – Davis Mills

What a whirlwind it’s been for the Houston Texans.  The drama of Deshaun Watson seemed to have overtaken every aspect of the team’s story, but now that Watson has moved on with the Cleveland Browns, we can finally think about anything else in Houston.  The situation is quite dire on the outside, but if we dig a little deeper, there are diamonds covered in coal dust.  There weren’t many players last season as unrecognized for their efforts as Davis Mills.  Even with all the drama, haters, and lack of weapons, Davis Mills quietly put together a nice rookie season.

It must have been crazy for Mills.  Here you are, drafted to a team with seemingly no chance to play, and suddenly, you are thrust into the limelight with fantasy and real life fans alike demanding greatness.  Anyone who says the Houston Texans skilled players are near the bottom of the league aren’t wrong, but even with them, Davis Mills actually performed better than most think.  There are obvious differences, but under a more stringent microscope, Mills compares closer to fellow rookie, Mac Jones.  You also have to discount Mills’ first six games where he got booed by his own fans for not being named Deshaun Watson.  As the season grew, Mills did more with so little than most other quarterbacks.  Moving forward, he’s not a top tier QB1, but he’s surely got a shot at being a decent, dependable QB2.  The price is right for picking.

 

Indianapolis Colts: Wide Receiver – Parris Campbell

There was a time when the name Parris Campbell brought nothing but excitement.  In 2019, the Indianapolis Colts took Campbell as the seventh wide receiver off the board and for many, he was a total steal.  In his senior year, he absolutely exploded from his norm and this was what many thought was just things to come.  At the NFL level, however, he’s yet to show anything close to those “true colors”.  He’s also been injured each and every year.  Most critics have already written him off, but I think there’s a world in which Parris Campbell still holds value.

Admittedly, the exodus of Carson Wentz was somewhat shocking to me.  I knew that there was a chance, but with what the Colts invested to get him, I was sure it was too soon to cut him loose.  Once I saw the Matt Ryan move, it all made sense.  And, this is the same reason why moving for Parris Campbell makes sense.  Matt Ryan ain’t no spring chicken, as they say, but he’s far from done.  Now in a strong system, with tons of support, we’ll see something closer to the Matt Ryan of old.  While everyone feigns for Michael Pittman like they always should have, everyone will forget about the forgettable Parris Campbell.  After Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, Matt Ryan will turn to someone and I believe it will be Campbell; who’s essentially free in most leagues.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Tight End – Evan Engram

I have to confess something.  I’ve been an Evan Engram truther since I rostered him in his historic rookie season.  He was nothing short of amazing and when I say, “historic”, I’m not exaggerating.  In his rookie season, not only did he score six times, which is incredible as a rookie tight end, but he also had the 7th most receiving yards of all time.  And while I still love to watch him, I had to come to the realization that his rookie season was a fluke and he’ll always be injured or underutilized or both.  That was, until he came to Jacksonville.

While I still have faith in Daniel Jones, I have even more faith in Trevor Lawrence.  The Clemson product is elite, despite what people are saying because of his rookie season.  Jacksonville is doing what they can to build around him and Evan Engram will suit him nicely.  The receiving core isn’t among the league’s best and Etienne hasn’t played a snap in the NFL, so Lawrence will need a good safety valve to rely on.  Many managers will be coveting Dan Arnold, so there will be many opportunities to trade for Engram for next to nothing.  There’s a chance that Engram’s elite days are over, but I’m willing to try one last time in this better situation and price.

Tennessee Titans: Wide Receiver – Robert Woods

The Tennessee Titans featured one of the best receiving corps in football last season.  AJ Brown is a top three dynasty wideout for many and Julio Jones is absolutely legendary.  The depth is also fantastic with so many young options to choose from.  But, it’s almost criminal how that team couldn’t make Julio Jones shine in his only season away from the Atlanta Falcons.  I know there were injuries, but it was just insane how strongly the regression took place.  Now that he’s gone, the Titans turn to former Rams stud, Robert Woods.

While Robert Woods is no Julio Jones in his prime, he is a fantastic number two under AJ Brown.  He’s a perfect example of how to succeed in a shared receiver offense as he did it with Cooper Kupp for many years.  And while he’s not young, at 29, Woods still has lots of time to prove he’s still got it after last year’s injury.  Derrick Henry can’t be the entire offense anymore and this will force the ball to others, like Robert Woods.  We also can’t forget that Robert Woods looked so good catching balls from the likes of Jared Goff.  No disrespect to Goff, but Tannehill has to be considered an upgrade by many.  Acquire him at a WR4 cost and watch him blossom as a low end WR2 with upside.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Darlings: Part 2

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More Dynasty Darlings: Part 2

by Tim Lazenby

 

Dynasty start ups rage on in this part of the season.  While redraft leagues won’t be going full speed until at least July or August, dynasty never sleeps.  And although some leagues are waiting until the real life NFL draft, many are commencing before finding out where the newest batch of rookies will land in the National Football league.  Every year, the consensus on draft value has an ebb and flow and this season is no different.  A draft isn’t usually lost in the first or second round; rather, it’s lost when late values are not grabbed.  Last time, we spoke about Daniel Jones, Kenneth Gainwell, Christian Kirk and Cole Kmet.  Continuing on in our discussion of ADP values, here is one more hidden gem at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end.

 

Quarterback - Davis Mills, Houston Texans

Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Texans have been rough for a while.  Although they have a handful of difference makers, the team is lackluster when compared to the rest of the division, let alone the league.  One of the bright spots for the Texans is quarterback Deshaun Watson.  An unworldly talent, despite playing for a poor team, off field issues and contract disputes left an elite talent off the field for all of last season.

 

While Watson is in many ways irreplaceable, Houston had to continue on in the meantime last year.  In 2021, they tried to utilize Tyrod Taylor as their answer under center.  He came out swinging his first game at starter, with a smash win against the lowly Jags followed by a decently close outing against the Browns, but an injury derailed his season at that time.  With no one else to turn to, then coach David Culley was forced to look to third round rookie Davis Mills out of Stanford

 

Although his team record was quite lackluster, Mills outperformed virtually everyone’s expectations.  While it’s true that he lacks the rushing upside, similarly to fellow rookie Mac Jones, his work as a pocket passer was quite underrated.  Playing for the weak Texans squad, he still finished with a higher completion percentage than Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Josh Allen, all the while doing it with exponentially less weapons.  And even though it needs work, in his last eight games, he only threw three picks.  Houston will certainly move on from Watson, Making Mills extremely appealing.  And considering he is going around Sam Darnold and Taysom Hill range in drafts, there is no reason to not take a flier on Davis Mills in 2022.

 

Running Back - Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks

For the most part Rashaad Penny has been one of the biggest disappointments in recent years in football.  When you talk about the criteria for a bonafide perfect dynasty fantasy football profile, Rashaad Penny ticked virtually every box.  Seattle invested a first round pick; Penny went to a system that emphasized the rushing game; and the competition was an often injured back with no team investment.  There was seemingly no reason to suggest that Penny would not only thrive; but also have the shot to run the league at the position.

 

While he hasn’t looked nearly as explosive as he did in college, save the end of this past season, the injuries have really taken the biggest toll on his dynasty value.  While in college, he only missed a handful of games, in the NFL, Penny has been one of the most injury plagued players, playing only 37 games in four professional seasons.

 

So if he’s always injured, hasn’t been the caliber he was in college and he’s a free agent, why is he on this list?  Plain and simple: it’s his current value.  It is possible that he will always be injured.  It’s also possible that he may play for another team.  But, when you are able to grab a probable starting running back around Chase Edmonds and Rhamondre Stevenson ADP, you simply have to gamble.  And add to that how he finished the season.  Since week 14, he led all running backs in PPR by over ten points.  Many said Keenan Allen would never thrive due to his injuries, and I’m willing to wager that Rashaad Penny could hold value this season. Gamble on him as his price is low.

 

Wide Receiver - DJ Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars

Finding value at the end of the draft can be very difficult, but it’s not impossible.  One of the gems comes from one of the worst teams, in the name of DJ Chark.  If we only look back a couple years, DJ Chark was straight up fire.  In 15 games, even though he was catching balls from Blake Bortles, he still finished as WR17 in PPR.  Past the first game, he only had less than five targets once.  He also did so well even though he was not technically the starting wide receiver in Jacksonville that year.

 

While it’s true that last season was a disappointment, as he was injured most of the season, while he was playing he was pretty much Jacksonville’s only deep threat.  Moving into this season, it doesn’t seem as though the Jaguars will have another burner on the squad, leaving Chark as the one to benefit the most from Trevor Lawrence’s cannon of an arm.  And although Lawrence didn’t shine last year in the slightest, there is no doubt he will grow and only get better moving forward, as will his weapons.

 

Now, we simply cannot base value off of one year alone, but again, digging up diamonds late in the draft is not an easy task.  DJ Chark’s value is so low that he is going around the ADP of Rondale Moore and Corey Davis.  And even though I think Moore and Davis aren’t slouches, I’m willing to gamble that Chark will be the best option at receiver by a wide margin.  I have been able to draft him regularly past round 13 and beyond.  He makes it an easy decision at the draft table every single time.

 

Tight End - Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars

Before you take out your torches and pitchforks, I am well aware I am about to speak fondly about back to back Jacksonville Jaguars players.  As we all know, the tight end position is the one that is the most dominated by the least amount of players.  Past the first tier, the drop off is large, and past the next, the drop off is downright severe.  Spending up to claim one of the top tight ends is also very expensive.  So claiming the talent later on is essential to any fantasy team’s success.

 

I’ve had my eye on Dan Arnold for quite some time.  Since starting only one game in New Orleans, Arnold has traveled quite a bit.  The numbers don’t look very pleasing, but he was never given a chance until recently.  Being an undrafted player means that you have to earn every chance you get and his first real shot at league relevance started looking up in Arizona in 2020. While he caught 4 touchdowns, which is decent, he did so while only starting five games.  And while it’s a small detail on the larger picture, it is important, nonetheless.

 

Many were excited once Arnold came to Carolina with the chance to truly be the starter, but after only three games, he was shipped off to the basement dwelling Jaguars.  It is true that Arnold has not dominated in Jacksonville, but once again, the opportunity has not been the best.  With new coaching, improved quarterback play and the status as the starting tight end, I have no doubt Arnold will be one of the brighter spots.  I am driven by statistics, but every now and then, I go with my gut.  And when guys like Austin Hooper and Jared Cook are similarly valued in the draft, I choose Dan Arnold every time.  Finding a starting tight end this late means knowing where to look.