David Johnson

AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Continuing our journey through the AFC we head south with the, wait for it, AFC South. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a new QB, amazing O line, stout RB and WR groups, and HC Frank Reich. This offensive core is NEUTRAL, gladly targeting without reaching.

QB Phillip Rivers: QB2, priority FA, QB is too deep of a position to be drafting Rivers but always worth to keep a close eye on an established veteran with a strong supporting cast!

RB Jonathon Taylor: Low-RB2, ideal RB3, 10-12% auction, round 4, Jonathon Taylor feels a lot like Ezekiel Elliot’s rookie year. Great offensive live, in the mix with veteran RB prescence, drafted highly, studs in college, and could be a fantasy 1st rounder as a sophomore. Love him, think he will be special!

RBs Marlon Mack: (RB4, 3-4% auction, round 9) and Nyheim Hines (zeroRB and PPR target, RB5-6, 1-2% auction, round 13) are in the mix for splitting the workload. It would be wise to invest in this backfield!

WR TY Hilton: Low-WR2, ideal WR3, 6-7% auction, round 6, I think this best ball target is being a little undervalued with his cost, big upside! I think Rivers will look for him often!

WR Michael Pittman (priority FA, deep league end of bench WR) and Parris Campbell (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14) are great complimentary pieces with TY Hilton. Both being big upside potential. The more I think about it the more I think this entire offense is undervalued!

TE Jack Doyle (TE2, borderline undraftable) and Trey Burton (priority FA, if Doyle misses time) will be more exciting options if a WR would miss time. Always best to keep an eye out for players in a good offense like this one!

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were certainly remembered for their playoff run last season. Nice bit of career redemption for Ryan Tannehill and monster efforts from Derrick Henry and AJ Brown were very exciting to see! The Titans are NEUTRAL with fair ADP all around.

QB Ryan Tannehill: QB2, priority FA, glad to see him do well on this team, struggling with injuries in Miami, it is always good to see a player full potential on display, I hope he can keep it up!

RB Derrick Henry: RB1, 20-22% auction, round 1, a big stock riser for me over the course of the summer, I now have him solidified as my RB6 and 6th overall player in all formats. This king of volume looks to repeat his success with little competition behind him.

RB Darryton Evans: RB6, $1 deep auction, intriguing prospect lands in a great situation. Pass-catching upside is there!

WR AJ Brown: Low-WR1 (robust RB with elite TR), ideal WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4, he had a truly amazing rookie season being a YAC monster, but questions of statistical sustainability linger. He is the top dog in town. Buy!

WR Corey Davis: (priority FA) has potential for opportunity, he just hasn’t done much with it so far. I’m fading until proven otherwise. Opportunity and talent remain bit I want to see it consistently come together before I get on my roster.

TE Jonnu Smith: TE2, $1 deep auction, round 14 if TE waiting has gone out of control. This TE on the rise certainly has plenty of opportunity with Delanie Walker out of town. Perhaps I’m too low on him but other TE options are more exciting to me. Worth drafting for sure! If he doesn’t pan out, TE is super deep.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a FADE, every player has value at a certain price, almost all of them I will be targeting only if at a bargain. Looming loses seems likely but week to week value can still be had.

QB Gardner Minshew: A national treasure, full of Chuck Norris energy! Or did Chuck Norris (RIP) have Gardner Minshew energy? Hmmm. Anyway, the only way I’m drafting him in standard rule leagues is with the Bud Light sweepstakes in mind. Have I mentioned that he is a national treasure?! Fun guy on a bad team, I’d rather not count on garbage time points.

RB Ryquell Armstead, Devine Ozigbo, and Chris Thompson: After the release of Leonard Fournette, can one of these guys return fantasy value?  We always want to keep players on our radars, but in this case I’m gonna let the radar blip. If Chris Thompson can stay on the field he has legitimate pass catching upside. Deep PPR target.

WR DJ Chark: WR2, 6-7%, late-4th/early-5th, Nope, not going sing it, can’t do it, let’s not get that song stuck in your head, I won’t do that to you my valued reader. He had a glorious breakout season, and was garbage time proof! Focal point of the offense! Call Me Maybe...ha

WR Dede Westbrook (deep PPR target, priority FA) and WR Lavishka Shenault (priority FA, deep end of bench stash) are still intriguing in the way that fantasy points can still be had in this offense, especially with the passing game if they are trailing in games.

TE Tyler Eifert: low TE2, priority FA, always has upside when he is healthy, his journey in the NFL has been rough, always flashed but has overcome some brutal injuries. Rooting for the guy, keep an eye out!

Houston Texans

HC (and GM?) Bill O’Brien has made some “interesting” off season decisions... new faces include David Johnson and Brandin cooks but franchise WR DeAndre Hopkins is gone. Deshaun Watson alone makes this team full of NEUTRAL targets.

QB Deshaun Watson: QB1, 5% auction, round 7, rushing upside while surrounded by nice weapons continues to make him an attractive QB! This fantasy friendly offense is likely to find themselves in shoot-outs with Watson being the prime beneficiary!

RB David Johnson: “Ladder Pick”, RB2 12-13% auction, round 4, I was very happy to see that I am higher on him than the market is. Could see a lot of touches, some worry remains about what he is able to do with them. I’m ok taking that risk with a player with his inherent upside.

RB Duke Johnson: Low-RB4, zeroRB and PPR target, I wish he would be implemented more because he is a unique talent with great pass-catching ability. Houston could find themselves in some shoot-outs. Best ball target!

WR Will Fuller: Low-WR3/high-WR4, 5-6% auction, round 7, only worry is health, but when healthy the Sky is the literal limit! QB-WR Continuity will be key is the season! I’d be aggressive targeting him in Best ball!

WR Brandin Cooks: Low-WR3 (robust EB with elite TE), ideal WR4, on his 4th team now starting his 7th season, he has proven to be new location proof. Houston can put up some serious offensive numbers. PPR target!

WR Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb: Priority FAs in a good offense. Should become wildly relevant if Fuller/Cooks were to miss time!

Post-Hype Sleepers: Running Backs

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Post-Hype Sleepers: Running Backs

By Alex French

Welcome to the next in my post-hype sleepers series! Today, I’ve got some running backs to wet your appetite. Hear me out, as they may not be what you expect. First, let’s define what I mean by post-hype sleeper again. This is a player who received large amounts of hype prior to last season, but failed to reach those expectations. Lets jump right in!

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos

It seems like a long time ago. But, at this time last year, Melvin Gordon was the consensus number 5 overall pick. He was coming off a 2018 season where he posted a true yards per carry of 4.8, which was a career high for him.  He led the league in catch rate at the running back position, and managed to score an average of 22.6 fantasy points per game. To put it simply, he dominated. 

Did someone say dominate? 

Speaking of dominating, his college dominator rating of 47.1 is 97th percentile. I believe that player is still there.  In 12 games with the Chargers last year, he had over 900 total yards. Gordon averaged 75.7 yards per game with 3.5 receptions per game. He showed flashes of the workhorse we all saw in 2019. 

This off-season he signed a two-year deal with the Broncos worth $16 million. That sort of financial investment leads me to believe he will serve as the primary back in what we believe to be an improved Broncos offense in 2020. I think Gordon is in line to finish as a top-end RB2 this year. He will also arguably have the best offensive line of his career with the Broncos also adding Graham Glasgow at Guard.

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

Like Gordon, last year Conner was a consensus first round pick.  If you owned Conner last year, you were severely disappointed.  However, the Steelers offense as a whole was a trainwreck without Big Ben under center. Roethlisberger is back at the helm and ready for week 1, which means this offense should be firing on all cylinders again. 

Conner struggled to stay healthy last season, and with Covid-19 this year, there’s always a risk. Conner has been hard at work to reshape his body this offseason, and now 4 years cancer-free, he should be poised to return to the 2018 form that helped people win fantasy championships. 

The Steelers have always been a team to feature one back, and that trend should continue. Look for Conner to provide potential RB1 upside in a much improved Steelers offense in 2020.

David Johnson, Houston Texans 

This pick may not be the most popular, but there are reasons for optimism here. Last season, Carlos Hyde received 245 carries in the Texans offense. Hyde is now in Seattle. 

Enter David Johnson. 

Johnson was the primary piece in the trade that sent DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals, and he will be used as such. Many fantasy players may forget that before his injury, Johnson was performing as a top-10 fantasy option at the position. 

Johnson is in line for over 250 touches, there’s over 150 vacated targets from the Hopkins trade, and the offensive line in front of him will be better. All these things are a recipe for fantasy success for David Johnson in 2020. Research also shows a trend over the last few seasons, that more often than not, vacated targets tend to go towards running backs the following season. 

I understand that these names probably don’t give you the warm and tingly feeling, but all three have a great opportunity to return value in both dynasty and redraft formats. Particularly in dynasty formats, their value is trending the wrong direction. This means the opportunity cost to acquire them should be quite low. This screams value to me. In dynasty, it's important to play for 2-3 years at a time. Many players tend to look a little too far out, which can hurt them in the long run. 

 

Follow me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

Houston, We DON’T Have a Problem.

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Houston, We DON'T Have a Problem.

By Matt Kelley 

Oh Houston, what have you done?...And by Houston, I mean Bill O’Brien.

The Texans added the title of ‘general manager’ to the duties of O’Brien in January of this year, and he’s been very active. Last year, it seemed like O’Brien was already running the show from the GM office even though it wasn’t official. The Texans moved a number of draft picks for left tackle Laremy Tunsil, and traded star pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney before last season began.

Ok, that’s cool.

Since officially becoming GM, O’Brien has removed wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who had at least 1,000 receiving yards every year since 2014, except 2016 (the Tom Savage, Brock Osweiler, and Brandon Weeden QB season...understandable). In the trade for Hopkins, the Texans acquired running back David Johnson (the Texans took on his entire salary) from the Arizona Cardinals along with draft compensation. O’Brien then shopped the 57th overall pick in this year's draft for WR Brandin Cooks from the Los Angeles Rams. The Texans continued to try to bolster their WR depth by signing free agent Randall Cobb to a three year deal.

Need a flow chart yet?

All of that said, for all of O’Brien’s wheeling and dealing, the Texans still have Deshaun Watson at QB, and he’s practically the only reason Texans fans have any sanity left.

Yada, yada, yada...

What does all of this mean for Watson and your fantasy squad? He’s been a perennial fantasy stud the last two seasons, and I’m here to tell you that isn’t about to change. Do not press the panic button. 

Watson is an outlier: 

Deshaun Watson, mercifully for Texans fans and delightfully for fantasy managers, took over the Texans QB job in 2017. Although his season was cut short by an ACL injury, in his seven starts he had 21 total touchdowns, and the Texans knew they had something special. In 2018, Watson accounted for 31 total TD’s to only nine interceptions and added 551 rushing yards. Last season, Watson again accounted for more than 30 total TD’s, 12 INT’s, and another 400 plus yards on the ground, leading him to an overall QB4 finish in the season for fantasy (15 starts).

Perhaps the most impressive part is that Watson put up these numbers on around 500 pass attempts in each of the last two seasons. Simply put, Watson is an outlier. Watson’s passing TD% over the last two seasons has been 5.1% and 5.3%, respectively. Only Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, and Patrick Mahomes finished both 2018 and 2019 with a passing TD% over 5%, along with Watson. Pretty good company. Of that group, only Tannehill (23 starts), Brees (26 starts), and Wilson (started every game) had fewer pass attempts than Watson. 

Watson has to do MORE: 

Asking Watson to produce more is a pretty big ask, but he’s simply going to have to do so. The departure of WR Deandre Hopkins can’t be understated. New addition WR Brandin Cooks has four seasons over 1,000 receiving yards. Randall Cobb has one season (2014) of such a mark. After that, no pass catcher on the Texans has surpassed the 1,000 yard receiving mark. While that sounds daunting, Cooks, Will Fuller, and Kenny Stills all represent deep threats. Stills ranked 7th in yards per target, Fuller 18th, and Cooks 49th (though he was 9th in 2018). Watson’s deep ball completion percentage was at 42%, which was good enough to rank him at 7th overall.

Watson has taken 106 sacks over the last two seasons. Part of that has been the offensive line and part of that has been the learning curve of getting rid of the ball quickly. The addition of LT Laremy Tunsil helped remarkably last season as he only allowed a pressure once every 28 snaps per Pro Football Focus. Tunsil also led the league in penalties (20, playoffs included). Penalties, and at best, average offensive line play at the other positions is likely to create a pronounced opportunity for Watson to use his legs and extend plays. Watson has proven he can take off and run. With these deep threat receivers, he’ll need to buy time to chuck it down the field. 

Dynasty outlook: 

Watson is still a top five fantasy QB. He’ll only be 25 years old at the start of the season, and while his ceiling isn’t that of Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson right now, he’s still an elite talent and a difference maker at the position. A lot of fantasy managers have Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and even Russell Wilson ahead of Watson in their ranks. While I wouldn’t fault anyone for deciding on those players over Watson...they all have their own arguments...Watson is as much of a consistent, solid value that you can hope to find within this draft range.

If there’s a league mate that is down on Watson’s value because of his surrounding cast, go after him now, as it may well be the lowest value you’ll be able to secure Watson at for a while. Deshaun represents a giant tier break from players like Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, and Carson Wentz, all of whom are going within about 28 picks of Watson. I can’t fault you for subscribing to the late round QB theory while drafting a team in a one QB league. However, if you’re in a league that allows you to start more than one QB, Watson is an enormous value that will provide long-standing, difference-making numbers for your fantasy team. 

Crank Up the Volume: David Johnson

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Crank Up the Volume: David Johnson

by Ryan Wiebe

     Yes.. Bill O’Brien might be a little “out there”. He might be one of the most grossly incompetent NFL GM’s of recent memory, but he’s determined to at least make the most of what was one of the biggest head-scratcher trades of the NFL off-season. B.O.B decided to continue moving draft capital, giving up yet another 2020 pick (4th round), plus one of the top 3 receivers in the NFL, in the middle of his prime, for a running back nearing the ever-scary age of 30 who spent a large chunk of the 2019-2020 NFL season injured, and then came back from that injury appearing to have the elusiveness of a school bus. Everyone has seen the clip, but here it is anyway!

(https://twitter.com/kyleynfl/status/1194331114120339456?lang=en)

     With all that being said, O’Brien has without a doubt invested heavily in Johnson, and as I said, is trying to prove that he is at the very least, less inept than he seems to be. We can expect that DJ will receive the lion's share of the workload out of the Texans backfield. We can also expect that he can’t possibly look any less elusive than he did against the Bucs in November. We are certainly a long way removed from the 2,100+ yard, 20 TD season that DJ put together in 2016 with the Cardinals. However, we can’t ignore that we are just one season removed from him putting together over 1,000 all-purpose yards with 10 TD’s. 

     The two most important things in terms of fantasy production are opportunity and talent. DJ is clearly talented. Not many guys who aren’t talented are capable of putting together a 2,100 yard and 20 TD season together. And though Deshaun Watson is also incredibly talented, until the Texans offensive line is okay with not letting pass rushers through to chase Watson around, the recipe is definitely there for a lot of check-downs and dump-offs to DJ to work magic with. All of the sudden we have some added opportunity (and remember, Bill O’Brien wants there to be opportunity too!). 

     DJ is being drafted in the late third/early 4th round in ESPN drafts at the time of writing this. Right around the range of Le’Veon Bell, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and just ahead of Melvin Gordon. Of those four, Johnson certainly has less to compete with in the backfield than MG3 or CEH do, and a far better offense than Bell does. (Say what you want about B.O.B. as a GM, but as a coach he has at least been adequate...something Adam Gase seems to know nothing about). We don’t need to lie to ourselves and think that Johnson is going to be replicating his massive 2016 output, but he is certainly capable of putting up numbers to be a high-end RB2...especially in PPR and .5 PPR formats. O’Brien is certainly capable of willing Johnson into at least a top-15 finish this season. If you’re picking early in your draft and end up with an early RB/WR/WR/QB type look (CMC, Lamar Jackson, Golladay for example), DJ could be a solid RB2 for you and allow you to look for some other solid receiver options. 

     Even if there are some warning signs out there, be ready. David Johnson is going to put up some solid RB2 numbers this season (*as long as he stays healthy). Count on it.

You can follow me on Twitter @ryanwiebe12