D'Andre Swift

Pick Your Poison

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Pick Your Poison

CeeDee Lamb/Travis Etienne or D’Andre Swift/Deebo Samuel

By Tim Lazenby

 

Every once in a while a question really grabs you. In the fantasy football realm there are many common questions like, “Should I draft this guy?” or “Who’s your top sleeper?” but none are more compelling than asking do you go with Player A or Player B. To further weigh down the simplicity of the question, asking for Package A or Package B can be quite interesting. There are a plethora of considerations to mull over when making these decisions and this becomes even more difficult to ascertain when dynasty comes into play.

Daydreaming about the 2022-23 NFL fantasy season is the norm for me and perusing Twitter appeases this longing to some degree. In my swiping I came across a dandy question from fellow fantasy football enthusiast, @LosingSucks and he posed a question to chew on:

Pick your combo: 0.5 PPR

CD Lamb + Etienne
Swift + Deebo

Feel free to go to his Twitter page and answer for yourself, but if you do, I’m hoping the results will be just as split for you as they were for me when I answered. With 74 votes in, I chose the leading side which was only ahead at a ratio of 53% to 47%. I, like many of you, find myself staring at lopsided results when I entertain these questions, but I was pleasantly surprised to see the results so divided. After all, it was a hard one for me to decide.

So, just for fun, here are some of the criteria going through my schmuck brain when choosing the proverbial A or B:

 

Age

This poll features four young guns, but unlike the other three, who happen to all be 23 years old, Deebo Samuel is past the midway point of his twenties. At 26 years old, Deebo certainly isn’t old or even close to it, but it’s a factor that has to be considered. So although it’s not a deal breaker, first points go to CeeDee Lamb and Travis Etienne.

 

Current Dynasty Rank Value

Now this one is not an exact science, but in this circumstance, it becomes easier as the positions on either side of the packages are the same. Personally, here are my ranks at their given positions:

CeeDee Lamb - WR3 Deebo Samuel - WR5
Travis Etienne - RB17 D’Andre Swift - RB3

I’m just one guy, but from where I sit Etienne is the odd man out here. And even though all four are studs on their respective teams, Etienne just doesn’t carry the same weight as the other three involved, leaving the edge going to Deebo Samuel and D’Andre Swift.

 

Injury Concern

With these four guys, injuries have been a big problem thus far. Of the foursome, CeeDee Lamb is the only one who hasn’t struggled to stay on the field. And although you have to give some props to the Deebo/Swift side because Etienne hasn’t even been on the field due to the lisfranc injury in his rookie season, I give Etienne the benefit of the doubt that this could be a one time problem until proven otherwise. The constant lagging issues on the side of Deebo and Swift are too concerning to not side with CeeDee and Etienne.

Team Importance

We all know that these four players are essential to their respective teams’ success. All four players are top featured options in each offense, but it is important to note that the recent additions to Detroit’s offense will make it harder for Swift to shine like before. Not to say Swift is plunging down my ranks, but I don’t see him as bright and shiny as I did before. Although it’s a close one, I give the edge to CeeDee and Etienne.

 

Gut Feeling

When it comes to fantasy football, your gut feeling has to be considered. For some, this is the only reaction to go by, but oftentimes, this becomes the tie breaker for me. For this particular scenario, if you asked me for my gut reaction, I would have chosen Deebo and Swift as my winners, but after going through my criteria, the gut feeling isn’t enough. This is one of the closest ones I’ve seen yet, at least for me, but I’m going with the CeeDee Lamb and Travis Etienne side. It’s ok to not trust your gut sometimes.

If any of you want to be featured in an article like this, feel free to hit me up on twitter. DM me @NFLazenby and I’d love to weigh in on it!

The 2nd Year Running Back Comparison

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The 2nd Year Running Back Comparison

By Alex French

It's finally here! The 2021 NFL season is officially underway. The draft is about a month away. Those not-so-free agents are able to sign with teams, and it's time to dig into our research to decide which players to target, as well as avoid during draft season. Considering the perceived scarcity at running back, I think it’s only appropriate  we discuss a few. With draft season in full swing, I’ll be focused on some rookies from the last draft class. More specifically, I want to focus on D’Andre Swift and  JK Dobbins. Just for good measure, I’m going to include another who has been quite polarizing of late, James Robinson.

D’Andre Swift; Detroit Lions 

Selected with the 3rd overall pick of the second round in the 2020 NFL draft, Swift perhaps didn’t have the most exciting landing spot. However, a case can be made that he made his presence known right away. In his first game, he was on the field for over 40% of the team’s plays. That number isn’t eye-popping, however, he saw immediate usage in the red zone with 2 opportunities. That is uncommon for rookies. Swift had only 6 games where he was on the field for more than 50% of the Lions offensive plays. Yet, in his limited work, he managed to get 26 red zone opportunities, converting on 10 of them. That’s good for a %38.5 conversion rate. Perhaps equally as important, Swift was heavily used in the passing game. Over the season, he was targeted 57 times, catching 46 of them.

As a team, the Lions scored 45 touchdowns last season, which was 16th best in the league. In the offseason, they traded Matthew Stafford to the Rams for Jared Goff. The Lions also let Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones sign with other teams. With this in mind, it's reasonable to project less touchdown opportunities for the Lions. The change to Goff should still mean targets for Swift though. In 2019, Todd Gurley had 49 targets from Goff, showing his willingness to check it down to his running back. With the losses at receiver, Swift also may be asked to move into the slot on occasion. Should that happen, his 1.11 fantasy points per touch should rise even higher in 2021. That mark was the highest of the players I looked at for this exercise.

Projection

160 carries, 804 rush yards, 55 receptions, 253 rec yards, and 9 total touchdowns

JK Dobbins; Baltimore Ravens 

Like Swift, Dobbins was selected in the second round of the NFL draft. Also like Swift, Dobbins had just 6 games where he was on the field for more than 50% of plays. Unlike Swift though, Dobbins was hardly used in the passing game, seeing just 24 targets. However, Dobbins managed to make the most of his opportunities. Dobbins  averaged 6 yards per touch and evaded 47 tackles. He led the league in percentage of runs over 10 yards, as well as true yards per carry, which factors in the offensive line. Dobbins accounted for 9 total touchdowns last season on 28 red zone opportunities.

Looking at opportunity and production, Swift outperformed Dobbins in the touchdown efficiency department. A case can be made that Swift’s use in the passing game is the reason. However, to illustrate the efficiency Dobbins had running the ball, he averaged just .07 points per touch less than Swift with 1.04 on the season. Yet, it cannot go without saying that Dobbins has a quarterback who also takes away red zone touches. Lamar Jackson ran the ball 159 times last season adding 7 touchdowns. The Ravens also decided to let Mark Ingram leave for Houston, which could mean slightly more carries for Dobbins. However, a lack of targets means he will have to have Derrick Henry type usage, which is unlike the Ravens. That being said, Dobbins should still provide value due to his efficiency.

Projection

155 carries, 965 rush yards, 20 receptions, 130 rec yards, and 10 total touchdowns

James Robinson; Jacksonville Jaguars

Unlike Swift and Dobbins, Robinson had quite a different path to the NFL. As an undrafted free agent, Robinson forced his way onto the field and ran away with the job. Commanding 85% of the team’s opportunities, he made his presence felt. Out of this list, Robinson is the only player with more than 200 touches. He had 289. Robinson averaged 0.83 points per touch, which is impressive considering most of it came as rushing attempts. He accounted for 10 total touchdowns last season, more than a third of the team total.

With the Jaguars expected to improve in all phases of the game this year, they should see a touchdown increase, as well as increase the number of rush attempts from the 5th fewest in the NFL.  In free agency, the Jaguars added Carlos Hyde as a veteran presence. If Healthy, he should help make Robinson even more efficient. Robinson managed to evade  79 tackles, which was 5th best in the league. The offensive line should improve with another year together to provide more optimism heading into 2021 for Robinson. Given the current situation in Jacksonville, I like Robinson heading into next year.

Projection

255 carries, 1163 rush yards, 50 receptions, 239 rec yards, and 10 total touchdowns 

Looking at these numbers and projections, it appears James Robinson is my favorite of the three. I am actually surprised at this myself. With Jamaal Williams joining Swift in the Detroit backfield, Swift could lose some of the passing game work that provides such upside. As an example of the value of receptions, here’s two players. Player 1 had 264 total touches for 1092 yards and 10 touchdowns. Player 2 had 152 touches for 862 yards and 7 touchdowns. Player 1 is Kenyon Drake. In general, most would say he underwhelmed last season. Player 2 was Nyheim Hines. In PPR leagues, Hines outscored Drake by 1 point. 193.2-192.2. With this in mind, Dobbins would need 13 to 18 carries with nearly all the goal line work to offer similar upside to Swift and Robinson. With how the Ravens have played since Lamar Jackson became the starter, no single running back has had more than 230 touches in a season (Mark Ingram 2019). Swift will now likely share passing down work with Jamaal Williams, hurting his value. Of course the Jaguars can still add competition for Robinson in the draft, but as things currently lie, I’ll take Robinson followed by Swift then Dobbins.

 

Follow me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

NFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Welcome back! We now head North as we finish our tour of the NFC! This division will revolve around one primary theme: QB quality. But before we travel North, below is the foundation of the team breakdown by division series.

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Green Bay Packers

I believe a team’s overall fantasy outlook begins with the QB. Aaron Rodgers makes this offense a BUY. He is still among the league’s best and his presence can open up the running game which will open up throwing lanes which will open up the running game which will open up the throwing…Rodgers is good!

QB Aaron Rodgers: Low-QB1, 3-4% auction, round 10, Rodgers continues to be a QB1 IRL and for fantasy. Since I believe a team’s overall fantasy outlook begins with the QB, I will be getting him a lot if his ADP stays where it is. I love him in the Key & Peele sketch but I love him more on the field and on my rosters.

RB Aaron Jones: RB2 14-15% auction, late round 2, Jones exploded with 19 TDs last year. I see that number going down enough to benefit Rodgers more but still not enough to have me shy away from drafting him. Lead back in a good offense, should have plenty of scoring upside, QB play open will open up running game.

RB AJ Dillon: RB 5, 3-4% auction, round 13, Packers drafted him in the 2nd, raised some eye brows at the time, but this thicc and highly productive college RB is a backup worth rostering. His thighs have been the highlight of GB training camp…can we please get to the games already?!

RB Jamaal Williams: RB 5-6, deep PPR target, $1, last round/priority FA, has been productive when given the chance, this now crowded backfield, mainly made up of Dillon’s thighs, now hurts Williams upside a bit. Worth keeping an eye on!

WR Davante Adams: WR1, 20-21% auction, late round 1-early round 2, this target machine will continue to have Rodgers’ eye. Easy to imagine that he can lead the NFL in targets.

WR Allen Lazard: WR 5, 1-2% auction, round 14, as of now I believe he is the clear WR2, and amazing upside can be had if he is the bottom of your bench. At that cost you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. WR-Marquez Valdes-Scantling, priority FA, has flashed but should only be rostered in the deepest of leagues right now.

TE Jace Sternberger: TE2, $1 deep auction, priority FA, this breakout candidate is now healthy and longer in Jimmy Graham’s shadow. Keep an eye out!

Detroit Lions

The QB theme is clear in this division: if the QB has (or doesn’t have) real life and fantasy upside then I am targeting (fading) those players. The Lions remain NEUTRAL with Stafford leading the way with a very nice duo of WRs, a TE on the rise, and a backfield with upside.

QB Matthew Stafford, QB1, 3% auction, round 10-11, huge arm and nice weapons is a nice cocktail for fantasy intrigue. Best ball target!

RB D’Andre Swift: RB 3, 7-8% auction, round 7 is ideal, at one point in time Swift could have been considered the top RB prospect of his class. If you are a believer, you will be happy to see the dynamic group he was drafted with push down his value. Questions of committee usage linger. Difference maker in college, he could really boom with Stafford

RB Kerryon Johnson: RB4, 5-6% auction, round 9, looking to be splitting duties with Swift; Kerryon limitations have nothing to do with his talent but everything with his game day availability. I’m excited to get one of the two on my rosters!

WRs Kenny Golladay: (WR1, 16-17% auction, round 3) and Marvin Jones (WR3, 5-6% auction, round 8) are an excellent duo! I’m happy to roster either one. Golladay looks to further excel his gameplay and Jones is always a deep ball and TD threat, I’d be aggressive with him in Best Ball. WR Amendola deep PPR league target.

TE TJ Hockenson: High-TE2 with TE1 upside, 2-3% auction, round 13, he would be a full on TE1 if his ankle concerns weren’t lingering, but they are. Tons of upside but I would look to draft or stream another TE if he isn’t 100% to start the year. He may be fine still but would exercise caution.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings continue to play as an “old school” team. Gary Kubiak is the new OC and with a young TE on the rise and adding a 1st round WR, the Vikings are a Neutral offensive core with players primarily draftable at ADP. 2 Ladder Picks incoming…

QB Kirk Cousins: QB2 priority FA, $1 deep auction, the QB position is so deep that Cousins is undraftable in 12 team standard rule leagues. Having nice weapons in a good offensive make him intriguing as a bye week/injury replacement.

RB Dalvin Cook: “Ladder Pick” RB1, 25-27% auction, round 1, Dalvin is my RB4 and 4th overall player. The Vikings offense will go through him as HC Mike Zimmer look to run the ball, play good defense and limit TOs with efficient passing (like with passes to Cook). Volume!

RB Alexander Mattison: RB4-5, 2-3%, round 12, Dalvin Cook’s injury history made Mattison an extremely appealing asset in drafts last year. Cook kept him irrelevant. If Cook were to miss time he is the backup worth rostering.

WR Adam Thielen: “Ladder Pick”, WR1, 16-17% auction, round 3, one of my favorite players now stands alone as the top dog in this receiver corps. He will be an absolute target machine. OC Gary Kubiak has a stout history of feeding his WR1 targets. Volume!

WR Justin Jefferson: WR 4-5, 2-3% auction, the Vikings 1st round pick looks to fill big shoes with Stefon Diggs out of town. He comes into the season with a chip on his shoulder from the NFL draft being vocal about his displeasure becoming the 5th WR drafted. He will look to make the teams who passed on him sorry. Vikings got a steal and now have a highly motivated player. Buy!

TE Irv Smith Jr.: TE2, priority FA for starter injury/bye week replacement, Big buy for dynasty, TE Kyle Rudolph is still around, keep an eye out in deep leagues

Chicago Bears

In the NFL QB is king, so this offensive core will be a FADE for me this season. QB play limitations and a good defense could be a recipe for QB game managers and controlling the clock. Of course this is an over-generalization but Trusbisky under center doesn’t excite me.

QB Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles: We aren’t drafting these QBs, but I prefer Nick Foles to Trubisky at this point of their careers. I really like the idea of Mitch Trubisky but inconsistent execution has soured his outlook.

This is a shame because he has a nice duo of WRs in Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller, and unique Swiss Army knife in Tarik Cohen that have their potential capped. These players are preferred with Foles under center.

RB David Montgomery: Low-RB2 (robust WR or elite TE), high-RB3, 10-12% auction, round 6, disappointing rookie campaign has lowered his cost, post-hype sleeper with upside. If he is your RB2, I would make RB a priority for the next 2-3 rounds after drafting him. Fingers crossed for a more efficient season.

RB Tarik Cohen: Low-RB3 while going robust WR, 5-6% auction, round 9, this zeroRB target is best utilized in PPR formats. A very unique player that has great pass catching upside.

WR Allen Robinson: Low-WR1, high-WR2, 13-14%, round 3, love the player, amazing talent, but has terrible QBs throwing him the ball for his entire career, including this year. Highly preferable to have Foles be the one throwing him the ball.

He is essentially QB proof but considering the other WRs that are drafted around him, I typically look elsewhere. He is exceptional but the offense is a FADE that is why I prefer to get him at a value rather than at ADP.

WR Anthony Miller: WR4-5, 3-4% auction, round 12, an excellent complimentary receiver opposite Robinson, a great value late in drafts being an offenses’ 2nd WR. He is one of the first players I look to add into my draft queue.

The Bears are a team with 27 TEs (only 7, actually) and none of them draftable. Cole Kmet is an intriguing prospect for dynasty. Old TE favorite Jimmy Graham is worth keeping on your radar especially if Nick Foles is the QB.