Damien Harris

Secret Leaders

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Hidden Gems

By Tim Lazenby

In the National Football League, greatness is often measured by the obvious statistics.  Players like Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase were heralded for historic seasons among wide receivers.  Looking at the numbers, like touchdowns and receiving yards, it is quite apparent.  The same can be true of any position.  At quarterback, players like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are recognized due to their touchdowns and interception ratio.  Among running backs, Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler dominated with their yardage and touchdowns.  And at tight end, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce reigned supreme.

But, there are many statistics that are not so easily discovered.  In dynasty fantasy football, we need to look for the hidden numbers and potential, as these players will be on our teams for years to come.  Drafting or trading by looking at obvious stats can be expensive, but if we look a little deeper, there are players in the league who were the best at what they did going largely unnoticed in 2021.  Below I’ve listed three players at each skilled position who lead the league in something most managers will find surprising.

Wide Receivers

Contested Catches

Although there are many wide receivers who caught more and scored more touchdowns, among contested catches, Terry McLaurin led the league with 25.  It’s even more impressive when you consider he caught 77 total in 2021, meaning he fought for every inch.  This can be looked at negatively as some would say there is a lack of separation, but I choose to look at the bright side.  I want a receiver who can catch those 50/50 balls.  And although he’s not looked fondly among many, Carson Wentz is an improvement over Taylor Heinicke.  So McLaurin should do even better next year catching from, arguably, his best NFL quarterback yet.

Catch Percentage

Target share is a big proponent when looking at wide receivers.  The chance at more targets means the chance at more fantasy points.  But, it is also more important to catch the balls that come your way.  A target not caught nets you nothing.  Many rookies gained acclaim last year, but Rondale Moore was seen as a disappointment by many.  Despite the haters, you should know that he led all wide receivers in 2021 in catch percentage with 84.4%.  Finding a cheap option that catches better than four out of five should be one readily sought after.

Red Zone Target Share

Not too many elite dynasty wide receivers are taking more of a hit to their value than DK Metcalf.  Aside from what can be looked at as a down season, he now loses his NFL lifelong option at Russell Wilson.  Although the number might go down, Metcalf led the league last season with a 36.5% red zone target share.  One could even argue that with a lesser option at quarterback, they will need to lean on Metcalf more than ever for success in 2022.

Running Backs

Least Drops Among Eligible Players

In fantasy each year, the running back position is more and more valuable when catches are made.  While only a handful are elite at the position, there are even fewer who have sticky gloves.  Of all the running backs in the NFL, only 25 of them had at least 50 targets thrown their way.  And of those 25, only one player did not have one single drop.  Although he’s a free agent, JD McKissic will certainly garner interest as an excellent pass catching running back.  And if he returns, much like Terry McLaurin, his play should improve with an upgrade to quarterback.

Average Yards After Contact

A team’s ability to establish the running game is well known to be important, and there are a limited number of rushers who are pure power runners.  Hindered mostly by injuries, not only last season but his entire career, Rashaad Penny truly soared at the end of the 2021 season.  While his first place average yards after contact isn’t likely to remain at a whopping 4.2, it is a good sign that the former first round pick has plenty left in the tank.  Whether he stays in Seattle or signs elsewhere, he’s surely shown enough to get the ball often to start next season.

Red Zone Attempts

Among running backs, it is truly difficult to find many categories that Jonathan Taylor did not lead.  Arguably the most elite option at running back, Jonathan Taylor is insanely expensive in dynasty and redraft formats alike.  There are others, however, who also did well last season.  In 2021, the running back with the most red zone attempts may shock you.  Damien Harris, after Taylor, had the most red zone attempts with 30.  His touchdowns in the red zone were also impressive, ranking him third in the league.  Despite the emergence of Rhamondre Stevenson and the carousel of other backs that Bill Belichick loves to use, Damien Harris is leaned on more than almost any other running back when it matters the most.

Tight Ends

Average Yards after the Catch

Tight end is a finicky position to be sure.  Finding massive fantasy relevance at the position is a tall task and finding one at a discount is an even bigger mountain.  Although there are many with more yards after the catch, when you consider per reception, Jonnu Smith led all tight ends last year with 8.3.  As Mac Jones grows, Jonnu Smith is certainly to be rewarded.  And if Hunter Henry misses any time, Jonnu Smith is sure to shine.

Snap Count

Take a guess which tight end ran the most snaps in 2021.  Mark Andrews?  Kyle Pitts?  Travis Kelce?  What if I told you it was Dalton Schultz with 993?  In fact, only three other non-quarterbacks ran more than Schultz; with first place Cooper Kupp leading Schultz by only 31.  It’s truly insane to consider that Dalton Schultz ran more snaps than the likes of Aaron Rodgers and among tight ends, it wasn’t even close.  As well as he did last season, Dalton Schultz can certainly only do better with how much he is on offense with the Cowboys.

Red Zone Targets

As tight ends are usually the most touchdown dependent position in fantasy football, finding one who is used inside the 20 yard line is a must.  With a higher probability of getting that six points plus yards, you should know that Dawson Knox led all tight ends last year in targets and receptions inside the 20; equalling 8 of his total 14 touchdowns.  And while his touchdown ratio should fall next season due to its lack of stability, his usage in the red zone should continue moving forward as no one attempted more red zone passes last season than Josh Allen.

Quarterbacks

Time in the Pocket

Pocket passers are usually less than desired when it comes to fantasy.  A quarterback without rushing upside is completely dependent on what his receivers can do.  Time in the pocket is often associated with more opportunities to make the perfect pass, but it also allows the quarterback time to make his own play.  Among all starting quarterbacks, surprisingly, Jalen Hurts led the way in time between the snap and either throwing the ball or pressure.  With so much time on his hands, Hurts ran more than any other quarterback last year, while generating more yards than anyone else at the position and scoring double digit rushing touchdowns.

Average Net Yards Gained

One of the signs of a good quarterback is net yards gained per pass.  Short catches are great, but longer stretch plays can allow more probability of a touchdown.  True pocket passes are becoming more rare in the league and it may surprise you to know that Jimmy Garoppolo led the National Football League in average net yards gained in 2021 with 7.68.  While much of this can be attributed to weapons such as Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, Jimmy G’s talent certainly can’t be overlooked completely.  Although Garoppolo is moving on from San Francisco, he’ll find a home and have success and a price fantasy managers can get on board with.

Red Zone Completion Percentage

There’s not a lot more satisfying than a receiver catching that perfect ball for a touchdown.  The quarterback has to remain calm and collected in general, but in the red zone, it takes even more prowess to succeed.  In 2021, none other than Jameis Winston led the league inside the ten yard line with a completion percentage of 77.78%.  That’s right.  Over three quarters of all balls he threw in the red zone were caught and of all his touchdowns, only three were caught beyond the twenty yard line.  While it’s only a sample size, as he was hurt for a portion of last season, he’s shown the capability before and at his price point, it’s an obvious choice.

AFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We begin our journey through the AFC with the AFC East. This is a very intriguing division for both real life and for fantasy football. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase’s mannerisms at his introduction press conference from a couple years ago still haunt me; this isn’t the reason why the Jets are a FADE. The reason is because he is the coach. Big Weirdo. Bad Coach. That press conference...I just can’t even...

QB Sam Darnold: QB2, priory FA for injury or matchup dependent bye week replacement, certainly has upside but it is a capped for the incompetence of the HC. He is a franchise QB to build around which I’m confident Joe Douglas will do. Dynasty buy!!

RB Le’Veon Bell: RB2, 14-15% auction, round 4, he’s not the Bell that we feel in love with in Pittsburgh but talent and high volume is rare, intriguing but with caution. Game scripts aren’t likely to be in Bell’s favor. Also the inconvenient truth is in town, the eternal Frank Gore.

WR Jamison Crowder: “Ladder Pick” WR3 (if robust RB with elite TE, ideal WR4, 4-5% auction, round 10, he will be a target monster on a team that is likely to be often playing from behind.

Crowder is one of my most drafted players so far this year. Jets WR1 that will get volume with (likely) game script help that is being drafted in the late rounds? YES PLEASE!

WR Breshad Perriman: WR5-6, 1-2% auction, round 14, as the end of your bench WR, Perriman’s late season breakout last year landed him a prime role in this offense. Plenty of upside, not much to lose at cost.

WR Denzel Mims: priority FA, this steal in the 2020 NFL draft could make a great pair with Darnold. He got banged up early in training camp...we apparently just can’t have nice things in 2020. Keep him on your radar!

TE Chris Herndon: TE2 with TE1 upside, $1, round 13. Can I call Chris Herndon the DeVante Parker of TEs? So much upside, so much promise, but little to show for outside of inconsistent flashes of greatness. I’m afraid we will forever say “this is the year” with him as with Parker.

Parker, of course finally broke out last year, same could happen with Herndon! We need him on field though! TE is very deep, so other options remain but certainly juicy upside. Not much to risk if he is your TE2 in a deep league. Could be delicious trade bait!

New England Patriots

The new look Patriots are a NEUTRAL offensive core, with looks of player worth targeting, none of them are worth reaching for. An intriguing offense year in and year out, that remains, but it isn’t business as usual this season. The GOAT is now in Tampa and in comes a former MVP, because of course.

QB Tom Br... Jarrett Sti...Cam Newton: Low-QB1, 3% auction, round 12, Cam could be an absolute steal at his ADP. This feels a little bit like Lamar Jackson last year, hopefully Cam is actually healthy now. Plenty of upside, going late…

The NFL is more fun with Cam on the field. Inherent rushing upside could be exponential with some uncertainty in the RB group!

RB James White: RB3 6-7% auction, round 7-8, this zeroRB legend has more upside for PPR, and is seriously an ideal weapon for Cam. With concerns regarding Sony Michel and Lamar Miller, White could become a lot more than just a PPR floor play.

RB Damien Harris: RB4 (robust WR with elite TE), ideal RB5, 2-3% auction, round 12, opportunity in a good offense is a key to great fantasy late round value, you’ll have nothing to lose and everything to gain with Harris. Keep an eye out for Rex Burkehead if any RBs are to miss extended time.

WR Julian Edelman: Low-WR3 (robust RB), ideal WR4, 7-8% auction, round 8, Edelman is another ideal target for Cam. Edelman can help Cam’s passing efficiency. I’m going to target Edelman aggressively. PPR target.

WR N’Keal Harry: WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14, Harry disappointed as a rookie primarily due to struggling with injuries. He has nowhere to go but up! Could be a steal in the late rounds!

TEs Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene are interesting dynasty prospects. Would it be something if the Patriots trade for disgruntled Cleveland TE David Njoku mid-season…would love to see it!

Miami Dolphins

The ADP of the offensive core is a clear representation of why this offense is a FADE, BUT the Dolphins have interesting upside as they look to build off of the semi-surprising success they showed last season.

QBs - Ryan Fitzpatrick/Tua Tagovailoa - Miami landed Tua without the full blown “tank”, he is an incredibly intriguing prospect to me. He is the QB they will build around. *Russell Wilson vibes*

Fitzpatrick is still the lovable bearded gun-slinger, but undraftable in standard roster 12 team leagues. dId YoU kNoW hE wEnT tO hArVaRd?! *Yawn*

RBs Jordan Howard: Low-RB3, ideal RB4, 5-6%, round 10, he is Rodney Dangerfield, he gets no respect despite consistently producing 1000 yard rushing seasons. Power back who is able to catch, under-utilized in that regard.

RB Matt Breida: RB4, 4-5%, round 10-11, Brieda has the speed and pass catching upside but is a little frustrating to roster with injury concerns. Good player with good opportunity. Not going to reach for him, looking for value!

Howard and Breida compliment each other well and should work well together in the offense. Hard to predict week to week usage but I am targeting them as a value in drafts.

WR DeVante Parker: WR3, 6-7% auction, round 7, the Parker breakout *finally* happened and it was indeed glorious to see him ball out. I’ve been down the road of hoping for upside too many times so I will only be drafting him at a value this year.

WR Preston Williams: WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14, really exciting rookie season ended abruptly from injury breaking the hearts of the fantasy world. I’d expect a slow start but certainly targeting him as my end of bench WR!

TE Mike Gesicki: “Ladder Pick” Low-TE1, 2-3% auction, round 12, Gesicki was an athletic standout at the combine 2 years ago, the fruit of his athleticism translated on the field last year.

The pass catching TE who is practically a WR has lots of opportunity in an offense that will likely feature have favorable matchups and game scripts. I’m a Pavlovian dog and Gesicki is the bell!

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are known for their passionate fans, but fortunately for the Bills Mafia, the Bills are on the rise! This revamped offensive core is given the NEUTRAL label from me. I’m targeting, but not reaching for, this improved group!

QB Josh Allen: Low-QB1, 3% auction, round 10, massive arm and rushing upside makes him a very intriguing player. New weapon, Stefon Diggs should contribute to his passing efficiency increasing. Big upside!

RBs Devin Singletary: (low-RB2, ideal RB3, 11-12% auction, round 6) and Zack Moss (RB4, 4% auction, round 9) are a nice hound duo is an offense that is trending up. Good defensive play is typical so there should be plenty of opportunity for touches.

I see Singletary as more of the volume play, with Moss getting the pass catching and potentially the goal line role. Upside can be capped by Allen rushing ability. Both are very talented, it will be very interesting to see how this situation plays out.

WR Stefon Diggs: Low-WR2 (robust RB with elite TE), high WR3, 9-10% auction, round 7, Diggs finds a new home in Buffalo. I think Diggs is a tremendous addition to this offense, he could be an amazing value! Bills paid a big price for him as they build around their franchise QB.

WR John Brown: “Ladder Pick” WR5, 3-4% auction, round 12, the Diggs-Brown duo is an underrated one! Diggs will attract the tougher defensive matchup which will help make life easier on John Brown. Everything to gain and nothing with a player at his value! Perfect sleeper!

WR Cole Beasley: priority FA, PPR target, in the mood of Julian Edelman, this scrappy WR is incredibly underrated and often forgotten about. He should be rostered in all leagues if Diggs or Brown were to miss time!

TE Dawson Knox: Low-TE2, priority FA, TE is so deep this year that he undraftable in standard rule 12 team leagues. This breakout candidate could benefit from Stefon Diggs presence the most! Add him to your watch list!

Diving Into The Deep End

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Diving Into The Deep End

By Matt Kelley

It is without a doubt startup dynasty season amongst the fantasy community. The NFL looks like a go from the standpoint of COVID-19, clearing most of the uncertainty about forging into a fresh dynasty league. 

Everyone generally knows about the players inside of the top 100 picks, but in a dynasty format where starting lineups and rosters are likely to be much deeper, you have to know where to look for rising stars, values, and opportunity. Here we’ll take a look at some guys going outside of the top 100 in ADP (we’ll assume 12 teams, single QB, PPR settings). 

Jamison Crowder, Pick 109 Overall: 

Crowder spent the first four seasons of his NFL career in Washington. In the first three, he compiled 280 targets, 192 receptions, and 12 touchdowns. All of this production came with Kirk Cousins as quarterback. We’ll forgo Crowder’s last season in Washington, as he only played in nine games, and the QB situation was in flux (Alex Smith, Josh Johnson, Colt McCoy, and even a Mark Sanchez appearance). 

Last season, his first season as a New York Jet, Crowder had a career high 122 targets in 12 games started. Crowder saw at least eight targets in 50% of his games. He became a consistent target for Sam Darnold, who took a pretty decent step forward in his own right, despite a bad offensive line and dealing with Mononucleosis a few weeks into the season. 

Crowder will be in the starting lineup out of the gate this season and will be a PPR machine. You can snag Crowder as a WR4 or WR5 in some cases and feel great about plugging him in as a flex option or during your bye weeks. 

Boston Scott, Pick 134 Overall: 

Regardless if you’re a Miles Sanders truther or not, you should know the name Boston Scott. Scott came into the Philadelphia Eagles lineup out of necessity last season. However, over the last month of the season, Scott saw an uptick in his opportunity and showed he’s got some chops to contribute to this team. 

Scott saw 24 targets to Sanders’ 22 over the last four games (Sanders did injure his knee week 17). I don’t necessarily expect Scott to see that split over the entirety of the season, but there is a possibility Scott sees low-end double digit touches each week. 

The Eagles didn’t bring in another RB over the offseason, so Scott is second in line to Sanders for touches. It also isn’t likely that Sanders will be on the field for 90% of snaps all season. 

Scott evaded 26 tackles in limited action last season, so he’s shifty enough to make guys miss and create space for himself. Scott can provide weekly upside in your flex spot and should be handcuffed for anyone drafting Miles Sanders. 

Drew Lock, Pick 166 Overall: 

Finding a long term QB has been quite the quest for the Denver Broncos. Have they found that in Drew Lock? Well, maybe. 

Lock started from week 13 on and led the Broncos to a 4-1 record over that stretch. He averaged a mere 204 passing yards per game, which was largely propped up by a 309 yard performance against the Houston Texans. He was also on pace to rush for 200 plus yards which aren’t Lamar Jackson numbers, but it doesn’t hurt. 

To be fantasy relevant in single QB leagues, Lock has to take a pretty big step forward. Luckily for him, the Broncos tried to surround him with better options for the 2020 season. They acquired Melvin Gordon in free agency, drafted WR’s Jerry Jeudy (who is projected to contribute immediately) and KJ Hamler. Both Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant are ready to prove they’re top options at their respective positions. 

The truth is, Lock is still facing an uphill battle. Gordon will need to acclimate to the offense, while the rookie pair of WR’s will need to acclimate themselves to NFL competition. Expect a bumpy start while the team finds chemistry and works through a tough first five weeks of the schedule (TEN, @PIT, TB, @NYJ, @NE).  Greener pastures are ahead, though, as the season wears on into the fall. Lock will have an opportunity to finish as a high-end QB2 if his surrounding cast develops with him. 

Damien Harris, Pick 199 Overall: 

I know 2020 is weird when I’m advocating for a Patriots RB. The Pats are notorious for going with a RBBC (running back by committee) approach...and by RBBC approach I mean good luck predicting who is going to get the most usage on a weekly basis. I don’t expect that to change in 2020, but with that said there’s opportunity to be had in this backfield. 

Damien Harris was selected in the third round of the 2019 draft and saw a total of four...FOUR...carries all season. Why? Well, I don’t have a good reason for you. The Patriots featured James White, Sony Michel, and Rex Burkhead last season, all of whom are still projected to be with the Patriots this season. 

So why Harris now? 

Well, he’s being taken very late, and there is a chance...albeit small...he starts the season as the lead back. Sony Michel, who saw the bulk of carries for New England last season, had offseason foot surgery and has had a number of lower body injuries dating all the way back to highschool. Given his most recent foot procedure was in May, there’s a chance he lands on the PUP when camp starts. 

With the NFL announcing limited camp and most likely no pre season, it’ll be difficult to evaluate Harris’ chances to start, and we know better than to just listen to head coach Bill Belichick. Harris produced in his time at Alabama, and he’s definitely fresh considering his very limited usage last season. At this range of a draft, it’s worth the shot to see if Harris comes out with a more significant workload this season as this backfield is pretty wide open. 

Tyrod Taylor, Pick 248 Overall: 

It’s pretty hard to find a starting QB this late, but insert Tyrod Taylor and you’ve got one...at least for a bit. Taylor is going to enter the 2020 season as the starting QB for the Los Angeles Chargers ahead of first round pick Justin Herbert. The Chargers are unlikely to rush Herbert for playing time due to the lack of camps, preseason, and offensive line problems. 

Taylor last started games for the Cleveland Browns, but his most meaningful stint as a starter was in Buffalo for the Bills from 2015-2017. What’s great about Taylor is he’s unlikely to throw himself out of the starting role. While he isn’t the yardage monster that Philip Rivers was, he doesn't turn the ball over. Taylor had six or fewer interceptions in each of his three seasons in Buffalo. 

Where Taylor really provides value though, is on the ground. Taylor rushed for 568 yards in 2015, 580 yards in 2016, and 427 yards in 2016. I’ll take that all day long from a QB. Especially one that is being drafted as the 30th QB off the board or later. 

Will he start all season? Well, no promises there, but the Chargers open their season with some fantasy friendly match-ups (@CIN, KC, CAR, @TB, @NO, NYJ, @MIA). You could easily get seven or eight games out of a QB or have an alternate to turn to from injury. If the Chargers stay in the playoff hunt you could conceivably get a full season from Taylor.

 

 

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