Dalton Schultz

Sneaky Starts for Week 1 Lineups

by

Sneaky Starts for Week 1 Lineups

We have finally made it—week 1 of the NFL season. The drafts are wrapping up, your teams are set, and redraft trades are in motion. The NFL season is here, and let's talk about some Sneaky Starts for week one. 

Josh Allen is a must-start… obviously. This article isn't about the obvious starters here. I will not tell you to start the Allen, as mentioned above, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Jefferson, or Josh Jacobs. Those guys are must and obvious starts. This article is about some guys that did not have the draft capital and may have question marks for year-long plays (I do dive into why they are as well) but for week one. It may win your matchup.

As we all know, starting in the win column in fantasy is significant; a close victory or a blowout, a win is a win. This article is here to help you with just that. Here is a player from every offensive position (and flex spot) that could win your matchup this week. 

QB - Sam Howell

There may not be more hype for a player after preseason than Sam Howell, and for good reason. Sam Howell produced points when the first team offense was on the field. His stats speak for themselves. In the two preseason games he played against the Browns, Ravens his stat lines are as follows: 

9/12 77 yards 1 TD

19/25 188 yards 2 TD

Howell secured his starting role and got to rest the third game so he would be healthy and ready for the regular season. So what? Why should you start him in your lineups this week, and why am I starting him over Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers? There are a few reasons.

Reason 1: Opponent

Washington is playing Arizona. After Zaven Collins and Budda Baker, the Arizona defense is in rough shape. While also trading away Isaiah Simmons for practically nothing, the Cardinals will not be very good this year. Only when Kyler Murray returns will the defense play less and not wear down. 

Reason 2: Player Personnel

Howell has two running backs, Brian Robinson for between the tackles and Antonio Gibson for gadget, outside, and screen game. The real depth is at wide receiver. Terry Mclaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel are all great options for a new quarterback. Mclaurin is a perfect outside receiver, Dotson the inside, and Samuel the Swiss army knife. Howell has the weapons in the backfield, out wide, and at the line of scrimmage with Cole Turner and Logan Thomas at tight end. 

Reason 3: Coach

Eric Bieniemy is now the offensive coordinator for the Commanders. His offenses have been dynamic in recent years as the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs. Although Andy Reid gets all the credit for the Chiefs offense, which is why Bieniemy had to leave, he will be taken seriously as a head coaching candidate. Bieniemy has something to prove. Howell has good athleticism, and Bieniemy will put him in a position to win.

If you have Sam Howell in Superflex, Howell will be a great Superflex player all year. If you have Burrow as QB1 and Howell as your QB2, will Burrow be 100%? Howell may be the play week one if the Bengals play it safe, or if Burrow does play, he has an injury that reaggravates easily. 

RB - Jamaal Williams

Jamaal Williams was an obvious choice here. Williams brings charisma and professionalism to a backfield that needed a player like that. The reasons why you should start him are as follows:

Reason 1: Playing Time

We know Williams will be the starter for at least the first three games because of the suspension of Alvin Kamara. Frankly, after the first three weeks, I don't see him being that bad of an option either. Kamara's best years were when Mark Ingram and he split touches, and I feel Jamaal can do that for the Saints again. Williams is a must-start with this and the lingering injury to Kendre Miller.

Reason 2: Track Record

Jamaal Williams's track record as a viable running back option has always been good. In his four years in Green Bay and two years in Detroit, he has yet to have a season under 100 touches. In that six-year career as well, he has 30 touchdowns. I don't expect a repeat of last year's 17 touchdowns, but he will have a workload, especially in week one against the Titans. Williams will not be affected by a decent defense.

The zero-running-back truthers are loving this one. Williams is the epitome of the strategy. Jamaal Williams will be the bellcow in week 1 for the Saints, and he could easily play 80% of snaps, so he will get his chances to fill the stat sheet. 

WR - Courtland Sutton

The reasons are evident for Sutton, and we will get to those in a second, but Sutton gets on this list for where he is also going in drafts. I picked him up in drafts as early as round 11 to round 14, and for a WR2 in most weeks on his team, that is a value I will always hit the draft button for. Here are a few more reasons why: 

Reason 1: Injuries

The Denver Broncos are one of the teams that have been thwarted by the injury bug this preseason, especially at the wide receiver position. Jerry Jeudy will be questionable with his hamstring injury; they lost KJ Hamler and Tim Patrick, possibly forever. They also cut many of the guys who have had NFL reps, like Kendall Hinton. Purely based on who is there, Sutton is a good start candidate. 

Reason 2: Offensive Coaching

Sean Payton, whether you love or hate, knows how to coach, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. He had one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, Drew Brees, and had a WR1 in New Orleans for multiple years before injuries started playing a factor. That wide receiver was Michael Thomas. Based on reports, Payton has had Sutton watching old Thomas films. If that is the case, Sutton, a big-bodied wide receiver, might have a great year. 

Reason 3: Opponent

We have yet to determine what the Raiders will be this year. McDaniels's track record as a head coach could be better, and they have yet to do much to improve their defense this offseason. Their front seven is good, but must improve on the back end. Marcus Peters is good but injury-prone. We will see if he can produce like he once did. Peters gives up big plays, and no one in the Raiders' secondary can cover Sutton in week one. Nate Hobbs will try, but this is another case of the offense getting significantly worse, so how long will they be on the field? I expect a long time, which will stretch out the field for Sutton to eat up those slant routes. 

It's purely based on who is available for week 1 for the Broncos. Sutton is an excellent wide receiver. Especially in leagues, you have to start three in. Wide receivers are the cream of the crop now in fantasy; finding depth and playing the right ones is significant between winning and losing. Sutton helps you win week 1.

TE - Dalton Schultz

On a new team that is rebuilding, Dalton Schultz has been a sneaky dynasty tight-end pickup all year. A career with 211 receptions, 2122 yards, and 17 touchdowns is decent; this could be a breakout year for many reasons. Here is why I think he is a better play than some other high-tier guys in week 1: 

Reason 1: Security Blanket

Schultz has had a quiet offseason since he signed his deal. That is not good on a team with many new faces. We also all know the cliche that tight ends are a quarterback's security blanket. That holds with Schultz this year, especially with a rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud. Schultz is athletic and will be a mismatch on safeties and linebackers, and Stroud will need Schultz to dump it off when the play breaks down. Schultz is good enough to make opposing defenders miss when he needs to gain some extra yards.

Reason 2: Personnel

Dalton was this coaching staff's first "real" acquisition. The other backups are from the old regime and hold no bearing on Schultz being the TE1 on this team. That said, there is nothing at wide receiver that provides us to say that Schultz won't be the top pass catcher on this offense. I wrote a Dynasty Dilemma on Nico Collins on why he is a sell target for me. Behind Collins, the Texans have Robert Woods and many unproven guys in Tank Dell, John Metchie, Xavier Hutchinson, etc. Schultz has a real shot at being good all year, especially in week 1. 

After Robert Woods on this team, Dalton Schultz is the most tenured offensive weapon. I would expect a huge game from him in week one. I would start him over Darren Waller, George Kittle, and Kyle Pitts. Waller is also on a new team, but unlike Schultz, Waller has more competition with Daniel Bellinger. Especially here in week 1, we will see how the chemistry is between Jones and Waller. I anticipate the Schultz and Stroud connection to be stronger in week one. Kittle was hit-and-miss last year, primarily because of injury, and I don't see that changing. In addition, Brock Purdy has weapons in Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey to exploit, as well as Kittle. In Kyle Pitts, I want to see rookie year Pitts before he becomes an automatic start.

Houston does have a tough matchup against the Ravens, but if I'm the Ravens defensive coordinator, I'm not letting a tight end not named Travis Kelce beat me. That is a win every day of the week. Expect a big week one from Dalton Schultz.

Flex - WR Brandin Cooks

I like Mr. Reliable for a flex play this week. Another new team and the clear number 2 option, with the contract drama out of the way. Cooks is going to have a monster week one, and here is why:

Reason 1: Personnel

There are many mouths to feed on the Cowboys' offense. Ceedee Lamb is going to get plenty of volume, and so is Tony Pollard. They both offer different things for the Cowboys' offense that make it dynamic, but they both do very well to create and use the space they have with the revolving door around the tight end position and no real reliable options in the passing game. They will need to find someone who can bail out Dak Prescott. That, my friend, is Brandin Cooks. He takes the pressure off the Lamb, Pollard, and Prescott to always make a play.

Reason 2: Productivity

Brandin Cooks has been in the league longer than he has. He is already going into his 10th NFL season, but it feels like his 15th. The difference between him and Robert Woods or Allen Robinson is that Cooks still has his fastball. In his nine-year career, six have been 1000-yard seasons, and he has consistently produced, but no one has ever believed him to be an elite WR1. Like previous years, I expect some big and mediocre games in the season. This week will be significant because people need to remember how good Cooks can sometimes be.

Cooks will be the afterthought in the week one matchup against the Giants. New York should be more worried about stopping Tony Pollard and Ceedee Lamb, who have torched them in the past. Unlike other years, Lamb has no competition for his WR1 role like in the years with Amari Cooper, and has more reliable options than just him, like last year. Brandin Cooks is the forgotten weapon for the Cowboys, especially here in week 1. He will show the NFL why you need a game plan to stop him during week prep. 

There you have it. Your week 1 "sneaky starts." Although I will not be held liable for your losses if you start these guys, I do hope they prove to be the guys that win you your matchups!

Dynasty Death Match: Goedert vs Schultz

by

Dynasty Death Match: Goedert vs Schultz

by Tim Lazenby

 

 In fantasy football, it can be hard to find the right value at tight end.  Historically the tight end position has featured two or three at the top, followed by a mid tier of a handful of guys, finished off by crossing your fingers and hoping you drafted the right gate in the late rounds.  In dynasty, this is even further complicated.  It is truly the hardest position to draft correctly for many, and I’ve preached for years that the best value is in the middle tier.

 

You could break the bank for guys like Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts and Travis Kelce, but that’s where you should be taking your elite running back, wide receiver or quarterback in superflex.  Even players like George Kittle and Darren Waller are too expensive at their prices.  It’s no secret that I love later values like Cole Kmet, but you should make sure you grab a guy in the middle too.  Two of these mid range tight ends are Dallas Goedert and Dalton Schultz.

 

If you look at most experts’ lists, they are often ranked back to back, so let’s take a moment and assess which player you should go for to get the best bang for your buck.  Since it’s fantasy, let’s start with the offensive numbers.  And I’m going from the past two seasons, as that’s when Schultz finally got his shot.

 

Receiving Numbers Comparison

 

Dallas Goedert

Dalton Schultz

 

At first glance, it can look pretty overwhelmingly in Schultz’s favor.  After all, he surpasses Goedert in virtually every aspect, but it is important to remember that Schultz played 7 more games over this span.  So if you do the math, the numbers are actually a lot closer than they look.

 

Now, there is something to be said about taking the guy who can stay on the field, but injuries happen to everyone and taking the healthy guy can’t be the forefront decision matrix when assessing the best value.  It’s also important to know that Goedert was sharing the ball with Zach Ertz until partway through last season, whereas Schultz was the primary tight end option in Dallas.

 

All that being said, it’s impossible to ignore that Dalton Schultz is ahead in the offensive numbers thus far.  I give the edge to Schultz; albeit a smaller edge than it looks by the numbers.

 

2022-23 Outlook

Dallas Goedert thrived as the primary option at tight end after Zach Ertz left for Arizona last season, but many are concerned now that AJ Brown has arrived.  There is also the continued development of DeVonta Smith and Kenneth Gainwell.  And let’s not forget that the quarterback in Philly is not exactly a throw first kind of guy.  That being said, Goedert actually enjoyed his best statistical season three years ago when he had to share more and had a quarterback throwing more.  I have faith that Goedert won’t fall off a cliff like some are envisioning.

 

Dalton Schultz is now thrown into the fray with even more gusto now that Amari Cooper is gone.  For many this signals a jackpot as there will now be 104 targets up for grabs.  This number is even higher if you consider Cedrick Wilson’s 61 targets are also up for grabs.  While many see the golden road being unveiled for Schultz, we have to temper our expectations because he could just as easily be double teamed, leading others to scoop up those newly found opportunities.  I have an opinion that is somewhere in the middle of these two.

 

Even though I want to give the edge to Dalton Schultz, my gut tells me that CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and even Jalen Tolbert will benefit more from those vacated targets than he will.  I also believe that Goedert will make the most of his seemingly doom and gloom situation and thrive making the most of the opportunities given.  It’s very close, but I give the edge to Dallas Goedert.

 

Conclusion

` Like all of the deathmatches, either option is fantastic.  Choosing one above the other isn’t a make or break decision, but since only one can survive, we have to do one of them dirty.  So, I’m going the direction of Dalton Schultz.

 

Although I believe Goedert is fantastic and he will make the most of his opportunities, I’d be blind to ignore the fact that Dalton Schultz is set up better for the long term.  Their value this upcoming season will be quite close in my estimation, but after this season, I feel like there will be a pulling away for Schultz.

 

Schultz’s quarterback is better for his fantasy situation and the competition will eventually eat up at Goedert’s profitability.  There is too much money invested in AJ Brown to not feature him drastically.  And after this season, once Brown is comfortable with the new playbook, I can’t see him being underused in any way, shape or form.

 

If you’re asking me who the better option is in redraft this upcoming season, it might swing a different way, but in dynasty I choose Dalton Schultz.

Secret Leaders

by

Hidden Gems

By Tim Lazenby

In the National Football League, greatness is often measured by the obvious statistics.  Players like Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase were heralded for historic seasons among wide receivers.  Looking at the numbers, like touchdowns and receiving yards, it is quite apparent.  The same can be true of any position.  At quarterback, players like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are recognized due to their touchdowns and interception ratio.  Among running backs, Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler dominated with their yardage and touchdowns.  And at tight end, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce reigned supreme.

But, there are many statistics that are not so easily discovered.  In dynasty fantasy football, we need to look for the hidden numbers and potential, as these players will be on our teams for years to come.  Drafting or trading by looking at obvious stats can be expensive, but if we look a little deeper, there are players in the league who were the best at what they did going largely unnoticed in 2021.  Below I’ve listed three players at each skilled position who lead the league in something most managers will find surprising.

Wide Receivers

Contested Catches

Although there are many wide receivers who caught more and scored more touchdowns, among contested catches, Terry McLaurin led the league with 25.  It’s even more impressive when you consider he caught 77 total in 2021, meaning he fought for every inch.  This can be looked at negatively as some would say there is a lack of separation, but I choose to look at the bright side.  I want a receiver who can catch those 50/50 balls.  And although he’s not looked fondly among many, Carson Wentz is an improvement over Taylor Heinicke.  So McLaurin should do even better next year catching from, arguably, his best NFL quarterback yet.

Catch Percentage

Target share is a big proponent when looking at wide receivers.  The chance at more targets means the chance at more fantasy points.  But, it is also more important to catch the balls that come your way.  A target not caught nets you nothing.  Many rookies gained acclaim last year, but Rondale Moore was seen as a disappointment by many.  Despite the haters, you should know that he led all wide receivers in 2021 in catch percentage with 84.4%.  Finding a cheap option that catches better than four out of five should be one readily sought after.

Red Zone Target Share

Not too many elite dynasty wide receivers are taking more of a hit to their value than DK Metcalf.  Aside from what can be looked at as a down season, he now loses his NFL lifelong option at Russell Wilson.  Although the number might go down, Metcalf led the league last season with a 36.5% red zone target share.  One could even argue that with a lesser option at quarterback, they will need to lean on Metcalf more than ever for success in 2022.

Running Backs

Least Drops Among Eligible Players

In fantasy each year, the running back position is more and more valuable when catches are made.  While only a handful are elite at the position, there are even fewer who have sticky gloves.  Of all the running backs in the NFL, only 25 of them had at least 50 targets thrown their way.  And of those 25, only one player did not have one single drop.  Although he’s a free agent, JD McKissic will certainly garner interest as an excellent pass catching running back.  And if he returns, much like Terry McLaurin, his play should improve with an upgrade to quarterback.

Average Yards After Contact

A team’s ability to establish the running game is well known to be important, and there are a limited number of rushers who are pure power runners.  Hindered mostly by injuries, not only last season but his entire career, Rashaad Penny truly soared at the end of the 2021 season.  While his first place average yards after contact isn’t likely to remain at a whopping 4.2, it is a good sign that the former first round pick has plenty left in the tank.  Whether he stays in Seattle or signs elsewhere, he’s surely shown enough to get the ball often to start next season.

Red Zone Attempts

Among running backs, it is truly difficult to find many categories that Jonathan Taylor did not lead.  Arguably the most elite option at running back, Jonathan Taylor is insanely expensive in dynasty and redraft formats alike.  There are others, however, who also did well last season.  In 2021, the running back with the most red zone attempts may shock you.  Damien Harris, after Taylor, had the most red zone attempts with 30.  His touchdowns in the red zone were also impressive, ranking him third in the league.  Despite the emergence of Rhamondre Stevenson and the carousel of other backs that Bill Belichick loves to use, Damien Harris is leaned on more than almost any other running back when it matters the most.

Tight Ends

Average Yards after the Catch

Tight end is a finicky position to be sure.  Finding massive fantasy relevance at the position is a tall task and finding one at a discount is an even bigger mountain.  Although there are many with more yards after the catch, when you consider per reception, Jonnu Smith led all tight ends last year with 8.3.  As Mac Jones grows, Jonnu Smith is certainly to be rewarded.  And if Hunter Henry misses any time, Jonnu Smith is sure to shine.

Snap Count

Take a guess which tight end ran the most snaps in 2021.  Mark Andrews?  Kyle Pitts?  Travis Kelce?  What if I told you it was Dalton Schultz with 993?  In fact, only three other non-quarterbacks ran more than Schultz; with first place Cooper Kupp leading Schultz by only 31.  It’s truly insane to consider that Dalton Schultz ran more snaps than the likes of Aaron Rodgers and among tight ends, it wasn’t even close.  As well as he did last season, Dalton Schultz can certainly only do better with how much he is on offense with the Cowboys.

Red Zone Targets

As tight ends are usually the most touchdown dependent position in fantasy football, finding one who is used inside the 20 yard line is a must.  With a higher probability of getting that six points plus yards, you should know that Dawson Knox led all tight ends last year in targets and receptions inside the 20; equalling 8 of his total 14 touchdowns.  And while his touchdown ratio should fall next season due to its lack of stability, his usage in the red zone should continue moving forward as no one attempted more red zone passes last season than Josh Allen.

Quarterbacks

Time in the Pocket

Pocket passers are usually less than desired when it comes to fantasy.  A quarterback without rushing upside is completely dependent on what his receivers can do.  Time in the pocket is often associated with more opportunities to make the perfect pass, but it also allows the quarterback time to make his own play.  Among all starting quarterbacks, surprisingly, Jalen Hurts led the way in time between the snap and either throwing the ball or pressure.  With so much time on his hands, Hurts ran more than any other quarterback last year, while generating more yards than anyone else at the position and scoring double digit rushing touchdowns.

Average Net Yards Gained

One of the signs of a good quarterback is net yards gained per pass.  Short catches are great, but longer stretch plays can allow more probability of a touchdown.  True pocket passes are becoming more rare in the league and it may surprise you to know that Jimmy Garoppolo led the National Football League in average net yards gained in 2021 with 7.68.  While much of this can be attributed to weapons such as Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, Jimmy G’s talent certainly can’t be overlooked completely.  Although Garoppolo is moving on from San Francisco, he’ll find a home and have success and a price fantasy managers can get on board with.

Red Zone Completion Percentage

There’s not a lot more satisfying than a receiver catching that perfect ball for a touchdown.  The quarterback has to remain calm and collected in general, but in the red zone, it takes even more prowess to succeed.  In 2021, none other than Jameis Winston led the league inside the ten yard line with a completion percentage of 77.78%.  That’s right.  Over three quarters of all balls he threw in the red zone were caught and of all his touchdowns, only three were caught beyond the twenty yard line.  While it’s only a sample size, as he was hurt for a portion of last season, he’s shown the capability before and at his price point, it’s an obvious choice.

Dynasty Dilemma: Dalton Schultz 

by

Dynasty Dilemma: Dalton Schultz 

by Tim Lazenby

 

Tight end is probably the hardest position to find value in fantasy football.  Whether it be dynasty or redraft, finding gold behind the top handful at the position is a straight up scarcity.  Everyone knows that Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce reign supreme in redraft.  And in dynasty, everyone is buying Kyle Pitts, but what to do after that?  One of the names pondered often is Dalton Schultz.  Walk with me through this thought process.

 

The Reason to Sell

Tight end, as long as I can remember, has been dominated by a dear few.  And of those few each year, the same names at the top get even fewer.  It’s the nature of the position.  At running back and wide receiver, the big responsibility is to score, whereas there are many more blocking responsibilities for tight ends.  Finding one that can score so well is something to be cherished, but can Dalton Schultz stay near the top?  It’s hard to hold on to tight ends when we can make a profit due to last season’s success.

 

Free Agency

Players become free agents all the time, but in recent years, no position in fantasy football has fared poorer in free agency than that of the tight end.  The consensus top available tight end each year in the last five has significantly regressed.  From Hunter Henry, to Austin Hooper, to Jared Cook, to Trey Burton and Martellus Bennett, each of their new homes did not shelter their fantasy managers in the slightest.  Dallas has arguably the best offensive line in the league, but with the free agents and cap issues they have, who knows what next season could bring for Schultz even in Dallas?

 

The Third Option

There’s no fooling anyone if someone says that Dalton Schultz was anything less than magnificent last season.  If you didn’t already know, the product of Stanford finished third in PPR among all tight ends; trailing only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce respectively.  The problem is that Michael Gallup was injured half the season.  No matter if Dallas resigns Gallup or not, Dalton won’t be the third option; he’ll in theory move back to the forth.  The fantasy value can’t hold the same weight as before.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

If you’re foolish enough into thinking you can just find a good option at tight end for pennies, I’d call your bluff.  The fact is that Dalton Schultz is only 25 and playing at a top level.  Last season’s 104 targets were no joke, matching teammate Amari Cooper.  He also finished with one less than the lead in receiving touchdowns at tight end in 2021.  I’m not sure what else we can ask for at the least valuable fantasy skilled position.

 

Success at Full Roster

While it is true that Dalton Schultz’s production went down once Michael Gallup returned, from week 10 on, Dalton still ranked as the 5th best tight end in PPR.  Even more than that, the season prior, as a sophomore, he was still amazing.  He finished 11th at only 24 years old.  That year, he also caught four more targets than Gallup and only one less touchdown, despite having 16 less targets.  With more experience and trust from Dak, the sky is the limit for Schultz.  And in case that wasn’t enough, last season he led his team in touchdowns and only had less targets than CeeDee Lamb.

 

Comparables

When making a decision, the best metric is to compare by position, so let’s compare Dalton Schultz with other tight ends.  Two seasons ago, Schultz was still a big deal.  In only his second season he had just 2.8 PPR points less than Rob Gronkowski.  Last season, like I already said, he was even better; placing third in PPR.  He did this while having just the sixth most targets among tight ends.  And while more coveted names like Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts led their team in targets, Schultz had success without needing to monopolize his quarterback.  At 25, with only two full time seasons under his belt, the argument can be made that the value can only go up for Dalton Schultz.

 

Verdict

It’s funny in a way.  The Dallas Cowboys have the tendency to overrate value in fantasy.  It’s not that the players aren’t good by any means.  I’m only saying that if you take a player like CeeDee Lamb and place him anywhere else, people instantly become more objectifying when assessing his value.  The opposite is true for Dalton Schultz.  For some reason, his Dallas Cowboys status card isn’t ringing the same as his teammates for fantasy managers.  And for whatever reason, many are missing out on the value.

 

Tight end is truly perplexing.  Where should we draft them; how much should we trade for them; when should we cut them loose?  And past the elite tier, the questions are even harder to ascertain.  Drafted in the 4th round, Dalton Schultz hasn’t come into the fantasy world with that powerful name; he’s had to work hard to get to where he is.  In some ways, I trust a late round or undrafted player more than one that has the team investment.  But, we’re talking about your team investment here.  Invest in Schultz.