Dallas Cowboys

NFC East Predictions for 2022

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NFC East Predictions for 2022

By Tim Lazenby

In 2020, we saw for only the third time in NFL history where a team with a losing record won the division.  The Washington Football Team represented the NFC then, sporting a 7-9 record.  Moving into 2022, spoiler alert, I see the NFC struggling compared to the rest of the league and promoting a losing team to the playoffs.  Without further ado, here we go.

Dallas Cowboys

Record in 2021: 12-5-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

It seems like forever since the Dallas Cowboys haven’t had the best offensive line in football.  Zack Martin and crew give Dak Prescott his best shot each and every game.  The defense is also among the best in the league.  The biggest problem I see is Mike McCarthy’s late gate decision making.  Boasting the best of both worlds, he has to be wiser when the game matters the most.

Situation to Watch

Personally I’m watching to see the continued growth of CeeDee Lamb.  With Amari Cooper now calling Cleveland home, I can only imagine what CeeDee is truly capable of.  There are only seven receivers in the great history of the Cowboys who bested Lamb’s 79 receptions last season.  It’s not out of the question to think he can top the century mark for receptions; which only one Dallas wide receiver has accomplished.

Conclusion

A big part of the Cowboys not doing as well in 2022 as they did last season is the improvement of another team in this division.  I also see the Cowboys losing two key games to bottom feeders will sink their chances at a winning record.  Although they will be under 500, it doesn’t mean they’re done after 17 games though.

New York Giants

Record in 2021: 4-13-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 6-11-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

I’m sure everyone is aware of how well the Giants did in this year’s draft.  It helps, mind you, when you have two picks in the top ten.  And it’s even more helpful when, at one point, both Kayvon Thibodeaux and Evan Neal were in contention to be drafted first overall.  That being said, so many question marks surround the team’s future.  The biggest two are Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley.

Situation to Watch

Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley may be the two biggest question marks moving forward, but there are many more.  All in all, the Giants had 16 players miss half the games or more last season and many were starters.  It’s hard to evaluate what kind of team you have if so many are missing in action.  If the Giants are to make some noise this season, they’ve got to stay on the field.

Conclusion

I see positive strides coming the way of new coach Brian Daboll as he should instill a work ethic that has been missing for quite some time.  I also think that Daniel Jones proves management right with his play this year.  Though they won’t make the playoffs, it won’t be a laughing stock situation like it has been for so long.

Philadelphia Eagles

Record in 2021: 9-8-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

The Philadelphia Eagles shocked the world during the draft when they traded for superstar wide receiver, AJ Brown.  In Brown the Eagles finally have an alpha, but we can’t forget the makeup of this team.  They roster a quarterback who loves to run and the best ground game in the league.  A new identity has to be coming, but I wonder how long that will take to arrive fully.

Situation to Watch

With the addition of AJ Brown, changes are coming.  I worry for the long term security of Miles Sanders.  Last year he scored zero touchdowns and players like Kenneth Gainwell cannot be held off forever.  I don’t think the Eagles can justify another poor season of play from Miles Sanders now that they’re all in with their receiving game.

Conclusion

It’s easy to get excited about AJ Brown, but AJ Brown will not instantly make this team a contender.  If I were looking at the keys to success, I remember that they drafted living bulldozer Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean; maybe the best value in the draft.  The defense was good before, but now they can contend with the big boys.  That being said, I can’t see the offense magically changing overnight.  I’m certain it’s a year of growing pains before the Eagles really fly.

Washington Commanders

Record in 2021: 7-10-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 4-12-1

Strengths and Weaknesses

The biggest strength of this team is their schedule.  Ranking at sixth best, the cards are in their favor, but I’ll be real with you when I say that this team worries me.  Since they improbably limped into their division win two years ago, not much has gone right for this team.  A once rock solid defense has become a sieve and Carson Wentz is not the solution at quarterback.

Situation to Watch

For me, I’m watching to see how first round pick Jahan Dotson does out of the gate.  In my humble opinion, there were other areas they should have addressed in the draft instead of taking a receiver.  In fact, from my estimations, there was a better option even at the position available.  I’m hoping Jahan Dotson proves me wrong though.

Conclusion

There aren’t many teams that I think will finish lower than the Commanders in 2022.  While on paper, the defense should be way better and they are more improved than last year, it won’t be enough.  I predict a six game losing streak out of the gate and it’s a hurdle that wouldn’t likely be overcome by a favorite, let alone the lowly Commanders.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Dilemma: Ezekiel Elliot

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Dynasty Dilemma: Ezekiel Elliot

By Tommy Harvey

 

Ezekiel Elliott was an immediate success for the Cowboys after being selected 4th overall in 2016 out of Ohio State. The former Buckeye made the Pro Bowl and was named an All-Pro in his rookie season. After serving a suspension in his 2nd season, he again made the Pro Bowl in his 3rd season. Since then, however, his production and health have declined. So we have to ask the question: What is Elliott's dynasty value moving forward?

 

The Reason to Sell

Zeke has had a litany of issues since he entered the league. A suspension in his 2nd season cost him 6 games, his volume has decreased every season, and he has become less durable over his career. 

 

Steady Regression

Elliott's yards per game production has declined every year since he entered the NFL. From a staggering 108.7 ypg in his rookie season to a career low 58.9 ypg last season, Zeke has regressed. Even though he played in all 17 games in 2021, Elliot barely squeaked over the 1,000 yard mark (1,002).

 

Capable Backup

In a lot of people's eyes, Elliott was outplayed by backup RB Tony Pollard last season. Pollard averaged 5.5 yards per carry compared to Zeke's 4.2 ypc. He also only averaged 11 ypg less than Elliot on less than 9 carries per game (Zeke averaged more than 4 carries more per game).

 

 

Reasons to Buy

It's not all bad for Ezekiel Elliot. He is the starting RB on one of the best offenses in the NFL. That means opportunities in the passing game and plenty of chances to score TDs. Both of which he has taken advantage of in his career.

 

PPR Production

Zeke was the overall RB6 in PPR leagues in 2021. There is nothing wrong with having a RB1 on your team. He secured 47 receptions on 65 targets and found the endzone a total of 12 combined times last season. 

 

Untradeable for the Cowboys

After signing a massive 6-year/$90 million deal prior to the 2019 season, Elliott's dead cap number ($30.08 million in 2022) makes it virtually impossible for Dallas to trade him. They would lose nearly $12 million against their cap if they were to trade or cut him. If they waited until next season to cut him, they would actually save close to $5 million. Thus, he should be remaining in Dallas in 2022. 

 

Verdict

Ezekiel Elliott has been a tremendous RB for the Cowboys since he entered the league. He has surpassed the 1,000 yard mark in 4 of his 6 seasons (he would have in his 2nd season if not for a 6 game suspension). He is a TD scorer, scoring 68 total TDs in his career. 

In my opinion, however, his best football is behind him. His ypg regression and volume decrease is highly alarming and the fact Dallas has another very capable and less expensive RB makes Zeke expendable in the future. 

 

NFC East Best Values

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NFC East Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

Each and every season, dynasty football managers have tough decisions to make.  Whether it be who to draft, when to trade a player or what time to make a move to acquire a talent, the life of a fantasy manager is rich with many choices.  In the off season, as some of us are drafting and others are making moves on our established teams, there are choices to make nonetheless.  Your dynasty season, and future frankly, relies on smart decisions and some of these are finding the best values possible in drafts or trades.  There are better players to choose from than the list I’m going to give, but none are better at their value on their respective team.

Here are the best values for each team in the NFC East in dynasty.

Dallas Cowboys: Tight End - Dalton Schultz

There are two common themes for Dalton Schultz heading into next season.  While some say that he is just hitting his stride, others say he is heading for regression.  Before the departure of Amari Cooper, although I disagreed, I could see the merit behind this thought.  After the trade, however, I simply cannot see a regression coming.  Aside from the fact that he’s only 25 in a barren wasteland of a position in fantasy football, there will be more of a need than ever to employ his talents.  

While all the accolades in the receiving game go to CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz quietly put up TE1 numbers, even with Amari Cooper still employed.  Michael Gallup should gain more targets, but make no mistake that the tight end is the second best option for Dak Prescott.  I already wrote a dynasty dilemma article on his merits, so it’s no surprise that I’d see things this way.  Check it out for more detailed information if you’re curious.

New York Giants: Wide Receiver - Kenny Golladay

It wasn’t too long ago that Kenny Golladay was a bonafide top ten in dynasty among wide receivers.  Catching balls from Matthew Stafford while in Detroit was a better situation than the one he’s in now, but talent is talent.  The 6’4” speedster still has plenty left in the tank and after such injury ridden years last season and the one before, many managers will have written him off.  Let’s not forget that he’s only two years removed from a near-1200 yard, 11 touchdown season.  

Daniel Jones has to throw the ball to someone, and the other options are much less appealing.  Sterling Sheppard has been serviceable at best, and Kadarius Toney is unproven and often injured, Golladay is a much more feasible option on your fantasy team.  When looking for a top option at wide receiver, there aren’t too many cheaper than Kenny Golladay.  And while it’s possible that he’s not quite what he used to be, he’s still the top dog in New York.  You should cash in now.

Philadelphia Eagles: Running Back - Kenneth Gainwell

This is a secret to no one who knows me or has read anything I’ve written when I say that I love this kid.  One of two guys that I just have to have everywhere, the name Kenneth Gainwell isn’t grabbing at managers as he should.  Sure, the situation isn’t perfect and he’s yet to show what he could do as a starter, but if you look at what he’s done with the little opportunity he’s had, you have to give him credit.  It doesn’t hurt that he is only 23, with lots of years left to give to you on your fantasy team. 

The Philadelphia Eagles are the top rushing team in the NFL, and although they had quite a logjam of running backs last season, it all comes down to Kenneth Gainwell and Miles Sanders moving forward.  And while he hasn’t been terrible, last season Miles Sanders didn’t do himself any favors; paving the way for Gainwell to creep his way into more and more play time.  In fact, I wrote a dynasty dilemma about him too.  Check it out if you want more in depth facts.

Washington Commanders: Quarterback - Carson Wentz

This last choice in the NFC East won’t be the cheapest if you play in a two quarterback or superflex league, but it’s the right one.  With Antonio Gibson and Terry Mclaurin being all that people want to talk about in fantasy in Washington, don’t forget about the former Colt.  While he’s certainly had his negative moments, Carson Wentz was one of the quieter success stories in fantasy before the last few games of the season and he’s certainly an improvement over Taylor Heinicke.

Let’s not forget that at one point Carson Wentz was in discussions as a bonafide keeper early on in his career.  Lately, he hasn’t looked like a second overall pick, but he certainly hasn’t been a bust either.  I believe there is still plenty left in the tank and a sizable chip on his shoulder.  I am sure that Carson Wentz is looking to prove Philadelphia, Indianapolis and everyone else that doesn’t believe in him wrong.  And it’s also important to know that, like in real life, if you don’t have a starting quarterback, you’re dead in the water.  And among starters, his price point right now is quite appealing.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Dilemma: CeeDee Lamb

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Dynasty Dilemmas: CeeDee Lamb

By Tim Lazenby

 

In dynasty football, it is important to not only look at talent, but at shelf life as well.  Aside from the quarterback, the wide receiver has the longest average playing career of the skilled positions.  Although the running back, tight end and quarterback positions are pretty much a single player dominated position on a team, wide receiver is the one that offers the greatest variety to choose from.  It is completely unheard of to run less than two receivers in the NFL, but oftentimes, teams will run three and even four receiver sets.  But with so many to choose from, finding the ones at the top is paramount.  CeeDee Lamb, especially in dynasty, is one such player.  But how near the top is he?

The Reason to Sell

It’s true that CeeDee Lamb ticks many of the boxes in not only a real life talent at his position, but also in fantasy football.  You have to wonder, however, if he’s worth the price the community has tagged him with.  One of the most expensive wide receivers in fantasy circles, is his price point worth the investment required to see him on your squad?  The talent is there, but is he worth shelling out the big bucks to roster?

Inconsistency

CeeDee Lamb came on the scene two seasons ago and took the league by storm.  Despite playing behind Amari Cooper, he quickly earned the trust of coach and quarterback alike.  Even as the number two in Dallas, he finished 24th in targets.  And as a 21 year old, was second among rookies; behind only Justin Jefferson.  But, the underlying receiving numbers can be quite deceptive, even if we look at last season.

Although he was the 23rd most targeted wide receiver in the National Football League in 2021, his catch rate landed him 45th at his position and 118th among all players.  In fantasy, there are no points for targets in almost any format, so despite so much attention, the points gathered by managers were much more minimal than they had hoped for.  Catching less than two thirds of the balls thrown your way just doesn’t cut it when you are a premier wide receiver and the top option for many teams.

Add to that the fact that he did not score a touchdown his first seven games last season, and only two touchdowns in his first ten, the situation was truly maddening in 2021.  It also infuriated managers to see CeeDee Lamb have less than five catches in half of the games played.  And while he did improve his rate as the year went on, the weeks lost before then cost many managers a chance at playoff contention.  The points come fantasy playoff time are the most important, but you have to get there first.  The inconsistency from CeeDee Lamb is not something that it easily ignored.

 

Ball Control

There are a few players in the NFL who are hindered with ball control issues.  Some are more notable than others, but surprising to many, CeeDee Lamb is one of these players.  The consistency mentioned earlier is truly troubling, but what he did after he was able to catch the ball is almost more concerning.

In his freshman season, CeeDee Lamb committed eight drops.  This was slightly concerning, but as a rookie, it can happen.  Much to the dismay of Lamb owners, this number improved zero percent, as CeeDee had eight drops again in the same amount of games.  Again, in fantasy it only matters what you do once you catch it, and eight drops in back to back seasons has to raise eyebrows; only not in the way you want.

It’s also very alarming to know that when he was targeted, CeeDee Lamb was partially responsible for interceptions.  Of all the interceptions that Dak Prescott threw last season, 60% of them were committed when Lamb was the target.  While we can’t blame the entirety of the situation on CeeDee, he’s at least partly to blame.  And while it wouldn’t have hurt your team if you didn’t own Prescott, it’s just another instance where CeeDee Lamb was missing key points to help your fantasy team succeed last season.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

As mentioned before, there are plenty of wide receivers in the National Football League, but not many that can lead your team to the championship.  In many ways, CeeDee Lamb is every bit what you look for in a true fantasy alpha.  The target share is there; the age is great and he has the quarterback.  Dak Prescott is one who is great in his own right and he’s also not going anywhere.  Can we really afford to miss out on this phenom out of Oklahoma?  And as I write this, Lamb is still only 22 years old.

 

Deceptive Improvement

While many saw last season as somewhat of a disappointment, if you look at the numbers, CeeDee Lamb improved on virtually every obvious statistic.  More importantly, the numbers for the other two top receivers for the Cowboys, in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup greatly regressed.  The Dallas Cowboys organization, from management to personnel, has clearly shown faith and trust in the 17th overall pick.

From his rookie season to last year, CeeDee Lamb’s targets, receptions, receiving touchdowns and yards per target all increased.  While many managers were not as pleased with his improvement as they had hoped, it is undeniable that improvement was there.  Add to that Dak Prescott has improved in many ways since Lamb came to the team, and it’s all looking up.  It’s also important to mention that the Cowboys’ work on the ground has taken a hit as of late.  So the receiving game in Dallas is all that more important moving forward; with Lamb as priority.

Lastly, as his ball control hasn’t been great, some underlying metrics have improved; many of them being key ones you look for.  In 2021, CeeDee Lamb increased his yards after catch by 42%.  This is even more impressive when you consider he was used even more on first downs, when teams expect the pass that much more.  And while it’s true he had the same amount of drops as he did the year before, his drop rate improved.  Perhaps most impressive is that he amazingly broke four times the amount of tackles last year than he did in his rookie season, leading to zero fumbles.

 

Potential Increased Usage

The fact on most people’s minds to buy, I’m certain, is the change coming to the receivers in Dallas.  While free agent Michael Gallup is certainly to be re-signed, I don’t think the Cowboys will want to lose free agent Dalton Schultz either.  If either leaves, the doors open for CeeDee, but even more importantly, I don’t believe there is even a slight chance the team keeps Amari Cooper.  The impending cutting of Cooper is virtually completely due to the insane contract signed in 2020.  Jerry Jones and company can save $20 million in dead money on the cap if they cut him loose now.  Even more absurdly, they can save $38 million dollars more over the next two years.

With the exodus of Cooper, based on last season alone, this frees up his 104 targets to other receivers in Dallas.  If we do a little math, based on what CeeDee did with his targets last season, the results could be very good for Lamb owners.  With no improvement to his game, if Lamb only got 25% of Cooper’s targets thrown his way and added only two extra touchdowns, he’d have an extra 44 points in PPR formats.  While that may not seem amazing, this is accounting for no improvement from what he did last season.  I truly believe he’ll improve moving forward and certainly gather a greater share than just 25% of the vacated targets from last season.

 

Verdict

This is one of the most truly perplexing dilemmas I’ve considered this season.  Had you asked me at the beginning of the off season, the solution was much more simple.  Due to the reasons to sell that I mentioned earlier, the decision to buy as a non-owner would have been obvious.  I could have made a great argument to sell as well.  Lamb was still being viewed as highly as the third best option at wide receiver in dynasty for many.  Where we sit in the off season now, however, isn’t so simple.

My rankings have been adjusted most greatly due to the impending release of Amari Cooper.  In recent memory, I can only think of one player who regressed once taking over as the de facto number one, in JuJu Smith-Schuster.  I had CeeDee Lamb, in my personal ranks at number 7.  Now, with this recent development, only LSU teammates Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are more appealing to me.

The true dilemma is that if I were a Lamb owner, there is no reasonable price that would deem him to be sold.  On the flip side, as much as I’d want him, as a non-owner, I could not in good conscience buy him at his current market share.  As helpful as it is not, the answer is nothing other than to keep him.  Unless the clouds have opened and the price has shifted dramatically in your favor, you have to grit your teeth and stay put.

Dynasty Dilemma: Dalton Schultz 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Dalton Schultz 

by Tim Lazenby

 

Tight end is probably the hardest position to find value in fantasy football.  Whether it be dynasty or redraft, finding gold behind the top handful at the position is a straight up scarcity.  Everyone knows that Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce reign supreme in redraft.  And in dynasty, everyone is buying Kyle Pitts, but what to do after that?  One of the names pondered often is Dalton Schultz.  Walk with me through this thought process.

 

The Reason to Sell

Tight end, as long as I can remember, has been dominated by a dear few.  And of those few each year, the same names at the top get even fewer.  It’s the nature of the position.  At running back and wide receiver, the big responsibility is to score, whereas there are many more blocking responsibilities for tight ends.  Finding one that can score so well is something to be cherished, but can Dalton Schultz stay near the top?  It’s hard to hold on to tight ends when we can make a profit due to last season’s success.

 

Free Agency

Players become free agents all the time, but in recent years, no position in fantasy football has fared poorer in free agency than that of the tight end.  The consensus top available tight end each year in the last five has significantly regressed.  From Hunter Henry, to Austin Hooper, to Jared Cook, to Trey Burton and Martellus Bennett, each of their new homes did not shelter their fantasy managers in the slightest.  Dallas has arguably the best offensive line in the league, but with the free agents and cap issues they have, who knows what next season could bring for Schultz even in Dallas?

 

The Third Option

There’s no fooling anyone if someone says that Dalton Schultz was anything less than magnificent last season.  If you didn’t already know, the product of Stanford finished third in PPR among all tight ends; trailing only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce respectively.  The problem is that Michael Gallup was injured half the season.  No matter if Dallas resigns Gallup or not, Dalton won’t be the third option; he’ll in theory move back to the forth.  The fantasy value can’t hold the same weight as before.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

If you’re foolish enough into thinking you can just find a good option at tight end for pennies, I’d call your bluff.  The fact is that Dalton Schultz is only 25 and playing at a top level.  Last season’s 104 targets were no joke, matching teammate Amari Cooper.  He also finished with one less than the lead in receiving touchdowns at tight end in 2021.  I’m not sure what else we can ask for at the least valuable fantasy skilled position.

 

Success at Full Roster

While it is true that Dalton Schultz’s production went down once Michael Gallup returned, from week 10 on, Dalton still ranked as the 5th best tight end in PPR.  Even more than that, the season prior, as a sophomore, he was still amazing.  He finished 11th at only 24 years old.  That year, he also caught four more targets than Gallup and only one less touchdown, despite having 16 less targets.  With more experience and trust from Dak, the sky is the limit for Schultz.  And in case that wasn’t enough, last season he led his team in touchdowns and only had less targets than CeeDee Lamb.

 

Comparables

When making a decision, the best metric is to compare by position, so let’s compare Dalton Schultz with other tight ends.  Two seasons ago, Schultz was still a big deal.  In only his second season he had just 2.8 PPR points less than Rob Gronkowski.  Last season, like I already said, he was even better; placing third in PPR.  He did this while having just the sixth most targets among tight ends.  And while more coveted names like Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts led their team in targets, Schultz had success without needing to monopolize his quarterback.  At 25, with only two full time seasons under his belt, the argument can be made that the value can only go up for Dalton Schultz.

 

Verdict

It’s funny in a way.  The Dallas Cowboys have the tendency to overrate value in fantasy.  It’s not that the players aren’t good by any means.  I’m only saying that if you take a player like CeeDee Lamb and place him anywhere else, people instantly become more objectifying when assessing his value.  The opposite is true for Dalton Schultz.  For some reason, his Dallas Cowboys status card isn’t ringing the same as his teammates for fantasy managers.  And for whatever reason, many are missing out on the value.

 

Tight end is truly perplexing.  Where should we draft them; how much should we trade for them; when should we cut them loose?  And past the elite tier, the questions are even harder to ascertain.  Drafted in the 4th round, Dalton Schultz hasn’t come into the fantasy world with that powerful name; he’s had to work hard to get to where he is.  In some ways, I trust a late round or undrafted player more than one that has the team investment.  But, we’re talking about your team investment here.  Invest in Schultz.

 

Top Dynasty Values/Buys

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Top Dynasty Values/Buys

 

We consider “Dynasty Buys” players who some would argue are being undervalued in dynasty leagues. These can be players who had their 2020 season cut short due to injury. They can also be rookies, 2020 disappointments, or undrafted players who are now in better situations. This could be players who are in better schemes that could give them more opportunity as well. Don’t underestimate this list of players, as they could be potential league winners. Read below to check out who the writers here at Dynasty Pros plan on selecting in all their drafts after the first three rounds.

 

Question: Who’s that one player currently outside the top 36 in the PPR Dynasty Leagues that you are drafting everywhere and why?

 

Javonte Williams (RB - DEN) Consensus Rank: 50th Overall | RB20

“Williams is a player I’m targeting on all my dynasty drafts in 2021. The Denver Broncos traded up in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft to grab the electric running back out of North Carolina. That type of investment tells me that Williams should be heavily involved in the Broncos offense immediately. Veteran running back Melvin Gordon no-showing at voluntary OTAs could really help Williams separate himself and win the starting job this summer. Williams has the tools to be a top tier running back, as he led the FBS last season in missed/broken tackles with 75 on just 157 rushing attempts. Don’t be worried about his toughness either, as he was a linebacker-turned-running back in college. I consider him a phenomenal value, since he is currently being drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds. This is a steal for a running back that could be starter come Week 1”

- Bob Miller (@DynastyProBob)

 

 

Zach Ertz (TE - PHI) Consensus Rank: 163 Overall | TE20

“It may seem strange to find a guy like Zach Ertz in a “Dynasty Buy” article with him being 30 years old and approaching 31 but this is exactly where Ertz should be.  In any dynasty buy article you are looking for two things, to buy at a value and a player who has more than one year of productivity left.  Ertz fits both of those categories but the value may not last much longer if he is traded in the coming days or weeks.  Tight ends typically play into their mid 30’s and Ertz has been a phenomenal player with the exception of last year.  Ertz dealt with some injuries last year but more importantly Philly was just a mess and you must take that into consideration when evaluating Ertz.  I believe it’s safe to assume that Ertz is in for a bounce back season especially with a zip code change coming anytime.  Ertz had five straight seasons with at least 74 catches and over 800 yards until last season.  He’s still athletic and he’s likely to be the tight end #1 on any team he plays for.  The time to buy is now before a trade happens because if Ertz is traded to a team like the Indianapolis Colts or Buffalo Bills his value will immediately spike.  Go get this guy in your dynasty leagues where you are a contender this year and next.”

- Levi Ellis (@FFStock_Man37)

 

 

Darnell Mooney (WR - CHI) Consensus Rank: 129 Overall | WR55

“Darnell Mooney had a solid rookie season for the Bears in 2020. After somewhat coming out of nowhere, the former 5th round pick finished 2nd on the team in targets (98), receptions (61), and yards (631). The inconsistent QB play of Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles hampered Chicago's passing game, affecting Mooney's...and Allen Robinson's...production. Mooney' speed makes him a serious downfield threat for a QB who can get him the ball.  Andy Dalton and/or rookie Justin Fields should be a definite upgrade for the Bears pass catchers. I am buying Darnell Mooney in every league I can get him in. I predict him to put up 77 Receptions, 986 Yards, and 7 TDs. That’s 217 PPR points, which are solid WR2 numbers. That’s fantastic value for a guy going in the mid-to-later rounds of dynasty drafts.”

- Tommy Harvey (@DynastyProsTom)

 

 

Parris Campbell (WR - IND) Consensus Rank: 143 Overall | WR59

The biggest thing Parris Campbell has going for him right now is his price tag. In most leagues, you can pretty regularly get him for a late 2nd which is getting into the “dart throw” range of picks. All players around there are going to have their question marks. For Campbell that is clearly his injury history, though reports say he’s fully healthy. Now, while there is some amount of injury risk, if he stays healthy he’s in a good position to exceed his current price. It’s a very, very small sample size but in the one full game he did play last year, he had 9 targets, 6 receptions, and 71 yards. For 16 games, he would be on pace for 140+ targets, 90+ catches, and 1100+ yards. That’s WR1 level usage and people are selling him for almost nothing. Again, that was a very small sample size and 2022 will not be the same as 2021 (Carson Wentz as the new QB, Michael Pittman also taking a step up, etc.). Still, there is a pretty high ceiling there for Campbell and, outside of injuries, he’s shown that he can be a starter in the NFL. Even if he doesn’t live up to his ceiling, I fully expect him to outperform his current price tag.

- Zach Owen (@NuetralZoneFF)

 

 

Gabriel Davis (WR - BUF) Consensus Rank: 148 Overall | WR61

“The Buffalo Bills were good. Really good in 2020. Part of their success came from improved QB play from Josh Allen, and the ability for his WR to step up. Josh Allen threw the ball 572 times in 2020. My 2021 projections don't have him falling flat of that and I believe Gabriel Davis, not Emmanuel Sanders benefits from this. Davis was a fourth round pick by the Bills in 2020 and took full advantage when Brown got hurt. He ended his rookie campaign with 35 rec/599 yards/7TDs. He was extremely effective in the endzone and while some say his high TD rate isn't sustainable, I believe he’s got the ability to end with double digit TDs in 2021. Let me explain. 

Gabriel Davis comes in at 6’2, and was learning to utilize his size last year. He became the deep ball target that Allen could lean on, with four of his seven TDs coming from 20 or more yards. Davis ended the year with an NFL 7th best reception average of 17.1! Davis comes in as the tallest WR on the Buffalo roster (Diggs, Beasley, and Sanders all 6’ or shorter) so should become one of Allen’s best red zone targets. Buffalo did not go out and get some TE help (at least not yet) and let go of John Brown this offseason, which also is a positive impact for Davis. I’m predicting 67 receptions, 991 receiving yards, 10TDs (226 PPR pts). With a year under his belt and some offseason noise of the continued chemistry with Josh Allen, I’m fully invested in Gabriel Davis. So should you.”

- Ralph Martinez (@LobosFFDen)

 

 

Michael Gallup (WR - DAL) Consensus Rank: 100 Overall | WR44

“The general consensus on Michael Gallup is that he is the WR3 for the Cowboys behind Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb. Some how Gallup still managed to receive over 100 targets last year in that same role. Also, there were only two guys who had more targets in the NFL who were a WR3 for their respective team. Those two players were Chase Claypool (the Steelers were #1 in pass attempts) and Russell Gage (the Falcons were #4 in pass attempts). Russell Gage also benefited from Julio Jones missing 7 games. Many assume Lamb will take a larger chunk of that share this year but it is also easy to forget that the QB situation also improves a lot. In 2019 Gallup put up over 1,100 yards and 6 TDs in a full season with Dak Prescott. Gallup is also in his final year of his contract and there could be a few things that raise his stock. Gallup could hit free agency and find himself on a team to be at worst the WR2. The Cowboys also have an out on Amari Cooper which would increase the chances Gallup is resigned by the Cowboys to pair up with Lamb. The third option is Gallup could be traded. If he is traded, the team acquiring him is likely a WR needy team that will force him the ball. Gallup has showed he is talented enough to get a large target share even in a crowded WR room, and his situation can only improve.”

- Collin Kral (@CollinKral)

 

 

Noah Fant (TE - DEN) Consensus Rank: 69 Overall | TE7

I have always loved Noah Fant as I am a lifelong Iowa Hawkeyes fan and that is where he caught my eye. Fant came into the NFL with every indication he was going to be elite. He is a 95+ percentile athlete in every category! He hasn’t become any less elite during his two years in the NFL. 

Fant’s stats in the NFL are matching up with his elite profile. Fant put up the 6th most receiving yards by a rookie TE since 2000– with 562 yards. That yardage came from 8 games of Joe Flacco, 3 games of Brandon Allen, & 5 games of a rookie Drew Lock at QB. Yeah, not a great list.

What about year two? Let’s dive in! In year two Fant put up 673 yards in 15 games. As we dive deeper we see that in one of those games there was one pass completed by Kendall Hinton, and another game he left after 5 snaps. I know it isn’t always fun to play the “what if” game because it's hypothetical, but if you extrapolate and do some math he was on pace for 812 yards in 16 games, while also dealing with a high ankle sprain. 

If you take Fant’s total yardage from his first two seasons, he’s in good company in total receiving yards among TE’s since 2000. He’s 10th on the list, behind Antonio Gates, Gronk, George Kittle, Jimmy Graham and Jason Witten. His 10 spot also ranks ahead of the likes of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed and Dallas Clark. Not bad company. 

Can he keep it going? Sutton is healthy and Jeudy is a mad man when it comes to route running. How does he get the ball? With Lock, Bridgewater, Driskel, Rypien, and Hinton at QB. Stats can’t go down from last year. I project the Broncos to have 4000+ passing yards no matter who is at QB. I mean look at the Steelers and the Cowboys and the Panthers, they supported 3-4 really solid receiving options. Speaking of the Panthers QB that supported those several good fantasy options, Teddy Bridgewater is now in town, which may allow for some consistency at the QB position. Although they have yet to name a starter, I believe that Teddy could Keep all 3 of the big weapons in Denver pretty pleased!

Noah Fant is absolutely elite and he may not break out this year folks. However, this is dynasty; you want to buy before the breakout. Noah Fant is 23 years old, an absolute stud and a QB away from being one of the next GREAT TE’s! He is a bargain at his current Dynasty ADP and I suggest you buy him before it is too late.

- Zach Kurt (@zachattacknfl)

 

 

Jerry Jeudy (WR - DEN) Consensus Rank: 51 Overall | WR24

Let’s rewind the clock to 2019. It’s just before draft time, and Jerry Jeudy is being touted as the best WR prospect since Julio Jones. Considered among many to be the best route runner to come out of Alabama. Fast forward to now. Rookie season complete and where do we stand? 

Jerry Jeudy finished his rookie year with an underwhelming performance. Or did he? Jeudy received 113 targets last year. Of those, only 58% were considered catchable. He caught 52 of those 113 targets. That’s a 46% catch rate. He also had 8 drops. If you add those drops to his reception total, his catch rate jumps to 53%. I realize it’s a little off the cuff math, yet Jeudy never had drop issues in his career at Alabama, so I don’t expect a repeat of this number. 

Looking deeper into his stats, Jeudy finished with 1,536 air yards, good enough for 6th most in the NFL.  Jeudy is the only player to finish top-10 in air yards who didn’t finish with at least 1,000 receiving yards. He should reach that mark in year 2. He also averaged over 1.5 yards of separation per target, which means he was open frequently. 

I think Jeudy's primary issue was quarterback play. In the offseason, the Broncos traded for Teddy Bridgewater from the Panthers. Last season, Bridgewater managed to propel wide receivers to top-36 fantasy finishes. As odd as it may sound, Bridgewater should be an upgrade at quarterback for Jeudy in 2021. Look for Jeudy to finish as a reliable WR2 this season. Maybe the most appealing is the cost to acquire him. In redraft and best ball, I've seen him go as late as the 9th round. In dynasty, I recently sent a 2nd round pick for him. Jerry Judy is a great buy right now, before he breaks out in 2021.

- Alex French (@TheBlindGuyFF)

 

 

Sam Darnold (QB - CAR) Consensus Rank: 172 Overall | QB27

“One player that I am currently buying in dynasty is QB Sam Darnold for 3 primary reasons:

  • At only 24 years old, Sam Darnold is entering his 4th NFL season and no longer trapped underneath the perpetual storm cloud of a head coach named Adam Gase. The grass is always greener when players are beyond the grasp of Gase. QB Ryan Tannehill is the most notable example of a player who’s talent and potential was capped but then resurged for an epic career redemption once they were set free from the clutches of the horrific incompetence of Adam Gase. Besides the addition by subtraction with Adam Gase, Darnold has been given the metaphorical keys to the car which bring me to reason 2...
  • Job security. Carolina has demonstrated full confidence to Darnold as they traded away their incumbent starter, Teddy Bridgewater, to the Denver Broncos in the weeks leading up to the 2021 NFL draft. Carolina then traded for Darnold and then passed on drafting a QB despite sitting in a prime spot for a QB in the first round. Carolina further displayed their commitment as they picked up Darnold’s 5th year option the day following the 1st round of the NFL draft. Darnold will now have at least two years to show what he is capable of with what is easily the best offensive arsenal he has ever played with in the NFL which is a segue to Reason 3...
  • Darnold’s vastly improved arsenal will include the following: Darnold will be under the wing of the young and intriguing Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady (former LSU OC who played a massive role in Joe Burrow’s record breaking and national championship winning season!), versatile RB stud Christian McCaffrey, rising WR stud DJ Moore, intriguing rookie WR prospect Terrace Marshall, and finally, Darnold will be reunited with his favorite target during his best statistical season; the spry veteran WR Robby Anderson!

He is one of my favorite QB2 options in Super Flex dynasty startups and at the current moment his cost is extremely reasonable for drafts and trades. I firmly believe his career trajectory has nowhere to go but up!”

- Steve Uetz (@FantasyLadder)