Dak Prescott

Replacing Watson

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Replacing Watson

By Joseph Goodwin

Now that we know there is a 6 game suspension for Deshaun Watson (which appears he will accept), how do fantasy managers proceed in drafting Watson?

First of all, be prepared for any draft that is about to happen, that the Watson stock is going to skyrocket.  I anticipate seeing Watson’s value rise to a low end QB 1 in the next few days; QB 10 or higher off the board.

If you are targeting Watson as your long term QB 1, before drafting your short term starter, consider the following:

Risk Aversion Level 1-3 (you want little risk)

You need a viable QB 1.  You cannot throw away half your season waiting for Watson to return.  You will need a legitimate starting quarterback to maintain a 4-2 or 5-1 pace to start the season.  Going 3-3 (or worse) does not bode well for your playoff chances in a 12 game regular season.  Instead, I would target the likes of : Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, or Aaron Rodgers. These choices are safe, reliable starting QB 1’s, but may require an investment earlier in drafts to secure than the scenarios below.  

Risk Aversion Level 4-6 (you don’t mind some risk)

You need a viable QB 1, but have a little more room for volatility.  In this scenario, you may be able to wait a tad longer on your QB 1 and target Kirk Cousins or Matthew Stafford.  Each QB will provide stable, fantasy point production through game 6 until Watson returns.  This scenario allows you to spend more of your early round draft capital on RB, WR to maximize your team’s scoring potential.  I excluded Derek Carr from this group due to his week 6 bye. This plan gives you an extra round or two from the 12 game plan to add depth to your other starting positions.

Threat Level Midnight

This option provides the most opportunity to swing for the fences and can include players like: Tua Tagovaiola, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence.  This plan offers the chance to load up on RB, WR, and TE; with a potential start: RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, WR, RB, WR before even thinking about the QB position. This plan can be a huge upside play.  A manager can plan on having Watson for 7 games before the playoffs, with the hopes of Tua, Justin, or Trevor provide adequate early season production to keep the team at 3-3 before Deshaun returns.

In all of these scenarios, Watson returning for game 7 against the Ravens should be the start to high end fantasy production from all of your starting positions.

My favorite among these scenarios is Matthew Stafford.  He provides solid QB play with a small amount of risk. My second favorite is Tua Tagovailoa.  Tua offers a solid 6 week opening and the added bonus of playing the Bears during Watson’s bye week.

In any of these scenarios, your risk tolerance and early round build are crucial to how you approach what QB to pair with Watson.  

Deshaun Watson could very well be a league winner if you find the proper compliment at QB.

Know your settings, schedule, and evaluate your tolerance to volatility in making this decision.

And win that title!

Dallas Cowboys 2021 Post NFL Draft Fantasy Outlook

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Dallas Cowboys 2021 Post NFL Draft Fantasy Outlook

By Tommy Harvey

2020 was supposed to be the year the Dallas Cowboys became Super Bowl contenders.  Gone was long-time head coach Jason Garrett, replaced by Super Bowl winning coach Mike McCarthy.  The Cowboys were primed to step back into the spotlight.  However, the season was an absolute disaster. Dak Prescott suffered a gruesome, season-ending ankle injury. The offensive line was constantly injured and inconsistent. Ezekiel Elliott had the worst season of his career. The defense was terrible, which led to the firing of first year defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. Possibly the worst thing for the Cowboys, was they won 3 of their final 4 games to finish 6-10. Their season ending victory over the Eagles hurt the most. 

2021 Draft Review

Heading into the final 4 games of the season, Dallas was looking at a likely top-5 draft pick. The late season victories dropped them into the 10th pick, which they eventually traded down to 12th to select LB Micah Parsons out of Penn State. The selections of CB Jaycee Horn and CB Patrick Surtain II (both a major need) directly before the 10th pick, seemingly led to the move down to 12. During the draft, the Cowboys made defense a major priority, using 8 of their 11 picks to reinforce Dan Quinn's unit. 

Highlighted by the selection of LB Micah Parsons, the Cowboys continued to fortify the defense by selecting CB Kelvin Joseph, DT Osa Odighizuwa, and LB Jabril Cox.  Offensively, Dallas picked up two linemen and WR Semi Fehoko out of Stanford.  Fehoko is a height, weight, speed guy, who could eventually work his way into the Cedrick Wilson role.

Quarterback

Dak Prescott

Going into the 2021 season, Dak Prescott is ready to return and is also $240 million richer. He signed a 6-year contract to return and is looking to pick up where he left off prior to his injury. Dak was on pace for a record-breaking season in 2020, averaging over 371 ypg. 

Obviously, circumstances dictated the amount of passing the Cowboys did. If the offensive line is healthier and plays better and if the defense doesn't put the offense in must pass positions, Dak shouldn't have to throw the ball as much. Regardless, Prescott should be considered a top-5 redraft and dynasty QB. 

2021 Early Projections:

438-640, 68%, 5,270 yards, 37 TDs, 11 INTs, 61 carries, 311 yards, 5 TDs

 

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott

There is really no other way to say it...Ezekiel Elliott had an abysmal 2020 season. He had career lows in yards (979), yards per game (65.3) yards per carry (4.0), TDs (6), and yards per reception (6.5). Last season was so bad, he ended up with less yards in 15 games played than he did in 2017 with 10 games played (6 game suspension).

The questions...Did he have a regression in skill? Did he suffer from bad offensive line play? Was he forced to see defenses that didn't respect the threat of the pass due to Dak Prescott's injury?

Whatever the answers are, Zeke needs to have a bounce back season for Dallas to contend in the NFC East.

2021 Early Projections:

298 carries, 1,281 yards, 4.3ypc, 9 TDs, 74 Targets, 58 receptions, 417 yards, 7.2ypc, 2 TDs

 

Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard is a talented backup RB. If Zeke were to ever miss any time, Pollard would definitely be a must own in fantasy leagues. 

2021 Early Projections:

100 carries, 460 yards, 4.6ypc, 3 TDs, 38 Targets, 25 receptions, 173 yards, 6.9ypc, 1 TD

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Amari Cooper

Amari Cooper is the leader of this very good and very young group of pass catchers for the Cowboys. Heading into his 7th NFL season, Cooper will still only be 27 years old. Often considered too inconsistent to be a true #1 WR, he has only had one season where he failed to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark (2017). A target monster, Cooper has seen 249 targets in his 2 full seasons in Dallas. 

Last season, Cooper amassed 92 receptions, 1,114 yards, and 5 TDs with backup QBs throwing him the ball. If Dak Prescott is fully healthy, Cooper could have a career year for the Cowboys. I would feel extremely comfortable having him as a high-end WR2 in all fantasy formats.

Early 2021 Projections:

133 Targets, 95 Receptions, 1,197 Yards, 12.6ypc, 8 TDs

 

CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb had a very solid rookie season, even without the benefit of playing with Dak Prescott for the final 11 games of the season. In his first season, Lamb was a HUGE part of the Dallas offense. He saw 111 targets, catching 74 for 935 yards and 5 TDs.  Lamb finished 2nd among all rookie WRs in receptions and yards.

Showing the obvious ability to be a top-end receiver in the NFL, look for Lamb to continue to develop into a big time target for Dak Prescott.  He has the potential to overtake Cooper as the Cowboys’ #1 WR by season’s end.  Both have high-end WR2 ability, with Lamb having WR1 upside.

Early 2021 Projections:

124 Targets, 82 Receptions, 1,074 Yards, 13.1ypc, 8 TDs

 

Michael Gallup

Michael Gallup has consecutive seasons of 100+ targets in Dallas.  Not many teams can support three WRs with over 100 targets apiece, but the Cowboys have proven able to do so.  All three Cowboys WRs are similar in what they can do, so they are all somewhat interchangeable.  With Gallup having the ability to be a free agent after the 2021 season, he will be looking to have a big season so he can cash in.  

In 2020, Michael Gallup caught 59 of 105 targets for 843 yards and 5 TDs.  His conversion rate wasn’t as high as Cooper’s or Lamb’s, partly due to being more of the deep ball and 50/50 threat.  I would imagine his 2021 would be similar to his 2020.

Early 2021 Projections:

109 Targets, 66 Receptions, 937 Yards, 14.2ypc, 7 TDs

 

Blake Jarwin/ Dalton Schultz

Blake Jarwin was one of my favorite sleeper picks last season.  I picked him to finish as a top-5 TE in 2020.  Then he tore his ACL in the first game of the season after only recording 1 catch.  Football can be a cruel game.  Jarwin was set up to be “the man” at TE after future Hall of Famer Jason Witten left for Las Vegas.  I still have extremely high hopes for the former Oklahoma State Cowboy, but he will likely share targets with fellow TE Dalton Schultz. High-end TE2 to low-end TE1 production is possible, so target him accordingly.

Schultz filled in admirably for the injured Blake Jarwin last season, recording 63 receptions on 89 targets for 615 yards and 4 TDs.  Obviously, the return of Jarwin will significantly cut into Schultz’ production, but he will still be involved.  He is probably best suited as a best ball pickup, but he could return some value as a streaming option in redraft and dynasty leagues.

Early 2021 Projections:

Jarwin - 74 Targets, 58 Receptions, 586 Yards, 10.1ypc, 5 TDs

Schulz - 52 Targets, 37 Receptions, 352 Yards, 9.5ypc, 4 TDs

 

Thrive Five: Week 5

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Thrive Five: Week 5

By Matt Kelley

Here we are, heading into week 5 after quite a tumultuous week 4 of injuries, blown leads and COVID-19. Nonetheless, we’re here to crush some props over at Thrive Fantasy and hopefully rake in some cash. Here’s my Thrive Five of the week: 

George Kittle v MIA O/U 4.5 receptions: O= 70 pts. , U= 130 pts.

Man oh man...George Kittle. Coming back from injury last week, Kittle gave us a strong reminder why he should be considered TE1 after racking up 15 catches for more than 180 yards and a score. This week the 49ers are at home against the struggling Miami Dolphins. Whether it's Jimmy Garoppolo or Nick Mullens at QB, Kittle is going to be the go to target as well as the player this offense flows through. The Dolphins are giving up just south of 300 yards per game through the air. This pick doesn’t net you a ton of points, but I’ll be smashing the over. 

Baker Mayfield v IND O/U 241.5 pass yards: O= 100 pts. , U= 100 pts. 

With the over/under representing even odds here and 100 points at stake, I’m going back to the Baker Mayfield well (after he didn’t throw an INT last week). The Colts have allowed a paltry 159.3 passing yards per game through the first month of the season. Grant you, they haven’t exactly faced murderer’s row in the first month (Minshew, Cousins, Darnold, and Foles). While the Browns are exciting to watch right now, it isn’t because of Mayfield (except for his commercials). Baker has cracked 200 yards passing once this season. Part of that is because Baker has been kinda ‘meh,’ and part of that is because the Browns are currently rushing for more than 200 yards per game. If Baker couldn’t have a great day against the Cowboys secondary, I don’t think he’ll be breaking out here against the Colts. I expect another heavy dose of the Browns run game. Give me that under. 

DK Metcalf v MIN O/U 77.5 rec yards: O= 110 pts. , U= 90 pts. 

Very few players have been more exciting to watch this season than DK Metcalf. A big reason for that is because the Seattle Seahawks are finally letting Russell Wilson sling the ball. Oh...and because DK Metcalf is a beast of a human and really good at football. Metcalf's lowest receiving total in a game this season so far is 92 yards, which came against the Patriots Stephon Gilmore. This week the Seahawks play the Minnesota Vikings at home, who are giving up nearly 300 yards per game through the air. Metcalf will likely see Mike Hughes or Holton Hill, and frankly I don’t care which one it is. It’s going to be a long day for this Vikings’ secondary. I like DK to roll and make it five straight games over 90 yards. 

James Robinson @ HOU O/U 96.5 total yards (rush+rec): O= 100 pts , U = 100 pts. 

Another even odds prop here, this time for the Jacksonville Jaguars RB James Robinson who has been an absolute baller for both for actual football and for fantasy this season. Robinson has crossed the century mark in total yards in three of four games to date. Before writing this I knew that the Jags' opponent, the Houston Texans, had been bad against the run this season, but I didn’t realize it’s been 180 yards per game bad. Woof. The Texans are a bit of a wild card right now after firing HC/GM Bill O’Brien this past week, but I don’t think there’s enough Flex Seal in the world to fix the holes in this Texans defense. Somehow the Texans are currently six point favorites, so if the Jags do get down, Robinson has shown his pass catching skills over the weeks as well, racking up 161 yards in four games. I like Robinson to continue his hot start, give me the over. 

Dak Prescott v NYG O/U 25.5 total completions O= 100 pts. , U= 100 pts. 

I guess it’s ‘Even Steven’ week here with the ‘Thrive Five’ as the over/under are each worth 100 points on Dallas Cowboys QB throwing more than 25.5 completions. Shockingly, the New York Giants are giving up the 5th fewest total yards and the 6th fewest passing yards in the league. Oh wait… the Giants are currently 29th in pace of play. Basically, the Giants offense is running so slow teams don’t have time to rack up yards. Dak Prescott hasn’t completed less than 25 passes all season. That’s in large part due to  the Cowboys defense (I use defense loosely) not stopping anyone and creating the need for Dak to throw. So the question is, can the Giants do enough on offense to keep Dak throwing? The Cowboys will probably feel they need to score 30 points, regardless of how close the Giants keep it, and Prescott will continue to throw just enough to carry into the over. 

 

Be sure to check out my interview with Scott Pesick of Thrive Fantasy on The Pick Is In Fantasy Football Podcast which you can find on Apple, Spotify, Amazon, Stitcher and Google! 

 

Enter our code DYNASTYPROS when you sign-up and receive an instant deposit match up to $50! (min $20 deposit) #PropUp

NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We are onto our 2nd division now! We will be covering the NFC East but first here are some reminders about what my breakdowns are all about:

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys enter this season as a mouthwatering offense building off of an impressive 2019 campaign. Dallas falls into the BIG BUY category!

QB Dak Prescott: “Ladder Pick”, QB1, 6-7% auction budget, round 5. Dak will be the primary beneficiary of the gargantuan offense surrounding him. The best trio of WRs the NFL has to offer, a TE on the rise, one of the best RBs, *checks notes* oh, and Dak has immense rushing upside! Sheesh!

RB Ezekiel Elliott: RB1, 30-32% auction budget, round 1, this stud do it all 3 down back is poised to have a monster season!

RB Tony Pollard: RB 4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, this zeroRB favorite is the only competition in town behind Zeke. If Zeke were to miss time, Pollard enters high RB2 range.

WR Amari Cooper: WR1, 16-17% auction budget, round 3, the leader of the WR pack is primed for another big year even with Gallup rising and the future star CeeDee Lamb in town, I see him leading the team in targets. Having Cooper as a Best Ball target I would bring some caution to prepare for a little bit of rollercoaster ride week to week but overall he should be feasting.

WR Michael Gallup: ideal WR3 but WR2 if robust RB strategy, 5-6% auction budget, round 7-8, productive player will draw the lesser DB matchup week to week but with this offense being such a nightmare to defend I see Gallup in plus matchups week to week

WR CeeDee Lamb: WR4, 2-3% auction budget, round 11-12, what felt like a luxury pick for Dallas was actually a brilliant selection in Lamb. He can play everywhere, he’s dynamic, will contribute to opening up the offense. I hate to gush so much but there is just so much to love about this group!

TE Blake Jarwin: TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside, $1 auction stash, round 13, as the clear passing catching TE option I can see him being a chain mover and massive problem in the red zone. Picture this: goal to go…defense has line stacked anticipating Zeke run…play-action…TD Jarwin *chef’s kiss*

Philadelphia Eagles

With Carson Wentz leading the way, the Eagles offense is a BUY this season!

QB Carson Wentz: QB1, 3-4% auction budget/round 9-10, the offensive core remains intact with rookie WR additions; Wentz continues to be an under-appreciated QB for fantasy as well as in real life. He’s got a big arm, rushing upside, and the incoming rookie all have one thing in common: Speed!

RB Miles Sanders: RB1, 19-21% auction budget, late round 1/early round 2, he flashed as a rookie with impressive athleticism and pass catching ability, he will look to improve in all facets of the game especially without Jordan Howard around.

RB Boston Scott: RB5, $1 deep auction stash, end of bench RB/priority FA in shallow leagues. Since the Eagles are an offense I want pieces of, keep a close eye on Scott since he has shown that he is able to produce is this offense when given the opportunity.

WR Jalen Reagor: WR4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, versatility and speed makes him an extremely exciting prospect!

WRs DeSean Jackson (WR5, 1-2% auction budget, round 12-13) and Alshon Jeffrey (priority FA in deep leagues, purely because he is starting the year on the PUP list) are seasoned vets and have proven to be difference makers when healthy. Were Best Ball leagues made for DeSean Jackson or was DeSean Jackson made for Best Ball leagues? All I know is that Best Ball league championship trophies were named after DeSean Jackson.

TE Zach Ertz: “Ladder Pick” TE1, 9-11% auction budget, round 4 (it he lasts to round 5- I am smashing his name!), Ertz has the ability to lead the Eagles in targets, catches, and TDs. Having the speed of Reagor and Jackson will only further open things up for Ertz. He will continue to be a favorite target for chain moving and in the red zone!

TE Dallas Goedert: high TE2, 2-3% auction budget, round 13/14, a great selection if your strategy to “wait on TE” gets out of hand. He has shown to be productive even when sharing the field with Ertz, if Ertz were to miss time he instantly becomes a mid range TE1!

The Washington Football Team

I’m generally considering this offense a FADE, however I believe any player in any offense is worth keeping an eye on especially in an uncertain year such as this.

QB Dwayne Haskins: low end QB2 is a FA to watch, outside of dynasty and super flex leagues he is undraftable. We want sure things and upside in our draft. Worth keeping an eye on as a streaming option as he looks to further develop as a pro QB in a division where shoot-outs are likely week to week. The good news is he has nowhere to go but up, hopefully. Remember, he is only two years removed from setting Ohio State University records for single-season passing yards and single-season touchdowns. If your starting QBs’ bye week lands on the same week that Washington plays a division rival, that may just be a good opportunity to consider Haskins.

RB Adrian Peterson: RB4, 1-2% auction budget, round 13, Peterson (much like Frank Gore) isn’t going away. He still may have some juice left, but if Washington is frequently playing from behind (which I would think is likely) than I’m not sure how the new and improved coaching staff can justify having him on the field. I’m no NFL head coach though.

RB Antonio Gibson: RB4, 3-4% auction budget, round 9/10, for me he is the player to target in this crowded backfield. I think his skill set and inherent upside separates him from the pack. I believe he is the perfect type of RB to be used in those situations hwer Washington will be trailing in games, again which I think is likely to be often. I believe he has the ability to takeover this backfield eventually. Upside stash!

RB Bryce Love: end of bench RB5/6, I’m hoping to see the Bryce Love we saw in college, but have to see him on the field first. Border line undraftable with crowded backfield but certainly a worth a late round stash as depth bench piece, I see him more as a priority FA worth keeping a close eye on!

WR Terry McLaurin: WR2, 13-14% of auction budget, round 5, this QB proof stud looks to improve upon an already impressive rookie season. He is the bright light of an offense that has a lot to improve on with a new coaching staff.
Players to monitor: TE Logan Thomas,  WR Steven Sims and WR Antonio Gandy-Golden. I feel this is important to mention because I made the mistake of brushing off Terry McLaurin’s dominant week 1 performance against the Eagles.

My stupid brain (at the time): “Who cares? It’s Washington. Of course he lit up the Eagles, it just what WRs do to them”… BUT he went on to have a truly impressive season. Don’t repeat my mistake, I suggest you pounce if one of those guys breaks out. Steven Sims was a stud weeks 15-17. Keep an eye out.

New York Giants

The Giants are an offense I’m categorizing as NEUTRAL, this offensive core has plenty of room to grow with players that you should not shy away from nor with players worth “reaching” for considering their auction value/ADP.

QB Daniel Jones: high QB2 with sneaky QB1 upside due to his rushing ability. Good weapons surrounding him can help salvage his fantasy outlook if he struggles with turnovers, 2-3% auction budget, round 12/13

RB Saquon Barkley: RB1 (ranked RB2), 31-33% auction budget, early round 1 (chalk at 1.02), he’s does it all, he’s a stud, an exceptionally talented athlete! Quads for days!

WRs Sterling Shepard (WR4 3-4% auction budget, round 8/9), Golden Tate (WR4 2-3% auction budget, round 9/10), and Darius Slayton (WR4 2-3% auction budgets, round 9/10) make up a very nice trio of WRs for Daniel Jones. All great first guy on the bench options, very useful for injury/bye replacements with upside for more.

TE Evan Engram: TE1, 5-6% auction budget, round 7/8, as my TE6 he leads the middle tier of TEs (with Hayden Hurst and Hunter Henry), provides a lot of upside and will be a beneficiary of mismatches with the trio of WRs alongside of him.