Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Dynasty Dilemma: Ronald Jones 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Ronald Jones 

By Tim Lazenby

 

Let’s be honest with ourselves here.  This has been the most exciting and earth shattering off season ever.  I can’t recall when the National Football League has seen so many names shifting, let alone franchise faces up and leaving with almost no prediction.  The swirling tornado of trades and signings, while exciting, can be frustrating at the same time.  For some, it is joyous or depressing based on real life favoring a team or player, but for others in dynasty, it can be maddening to assess the value of players whom we either own or want to roster.  Since NFL inception, Ronald Jones has been perplexing, and more than ever, managers want to know what to do.

 

 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers truly believed in the greatness of Ronald Jones.  The running back out of the University of Southern California was simply brilliant.  And even though his receiving game wasn’t on top, his rushing was exceptional; crossing 1500 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground in his senior season.  It all came crashing down his rookie season in the NFL, where in nine games he rushed for a measly 44 yards.  He’s had his moments for sure, but overall, it hasn’t matched his college profile.

 

Lack of Trust

With Doug Martin slowing down, a replacement was inevitable.  In fact, since his rookie season, The Buccaneers hadn’t had much luck on the ground.  Enter the 2018 NFL Draft.  Like any season, with holes to fill, Tampa Bay elected to take the fifth running back off the board.  And while first round pick Vita Vea panned out quite nicely, the second round pick had one of the worst rookie seasons ever.  Since then, he has improved, but hasn’t become that starter they had hoped for.  After only one season as the starter, Tampa Bay brought in Leonard Fournette.  Can Jones ever be a true starter?

 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Finally a free agent, and showing promise after sharing the backfield essentially his whole NFL career, the sky was the limit this off season for Ronald Jones.  Well, the sky indeed had a limit as he signed with a team that already had a starter.  While the Chiefs have one of the best running games in the league, so did the Buccaneers.  And while Clyde Edwards-Helaire doesn’t have complete trust, he has to be more trusted than the newly signed Jones.  Some are pretty sure they’ve seen the ceiling on Jones, especially in a committee backfield, because after all, we’ve seen it before.

 

 

For some, it seems as though Ronald Jones has been in the NFL for a long time, but even though it will be his fifth season in 2022, he’s still only 24 at the time of my writing.  It is true that his rookie season was historically terrible, but he was so young at the time and has had time to learn and evolve.  It’s important to look at how he improved after the rookie season.  And in his only season as the starter, it was pretty good.

 

The 2020 NFL Season

To truly assess Ronald Jones, we need to look at the 2020 NFL season.  This was the only season, thus far in his professional career, that he was technically a starter.  Despite sharing the backfield with Leonard Fournette even then, his numbers were trustworthy.  In only 14 games, he was just shy of the 1000 yard mark in rushing and still managed to be involved in the passing game.  His eight total touchdowns and 5.1 yards per rush were even more astounding considering the number of weapons he needed to share with.  No disrespect to the Chiefs, but they don’t have the talent of the 2020 Bucs.

 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

No, I haven’t gone crazy here.  One of the reasons to sell him is one of the reasons to buy him.  I may be one of the biggest Clyde Edwards-Helaire truthers out there, but even I need to acknowledge the shaky ground he treads on moving forward.  Even though the Chiefs invested a first round pick, the backfield has been given to the likes of Derrick Gore, Darrel Williams and even Jerrick McKinnon last season.  In fact, in the playoffs, Andy Reid trusted Jerrick McKinnon over CEH.  It’s also important to note that even if you don’t start as running back for the Chiefs, you have value.  I think the opportunity is better than ever for Ronald Jones to take the reins.

 

At the beginning of the off season, I was preaching to buy Ronald Jones.  Largely due to the fact that Leonard Fournette was a free agent and Ke’Shawn Vaughn is unproven.  So if Jones resigned and Fournette walked, it was worth the gamble.  There was also the opportunity to sign as a starter with another team.  Now that he has signed in Kansas City, does my opinion change?  I think not.

 

Although there is a crowded backfield, it’s clear, much to my dismay, that the team has no faith in Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the starter.  And, as I mentioned earlier, even if CEH is the starter, not only is he often injured, any running back has value in an Andy Reid system.  Most people also don’t have much faith in Ronald Jones, so the price is right for the taking.  Make the right decision and grab Jones while he’s affordable.

OMG!!! Week 1 Overreactions

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OMG!!! Week 1 Overreactions

By Ryan Wiebe

Week one has come and gone, with a lot of interesting results and leaving some fantasy managers who felt incredible after their draft in an absolute frenzy. Fantasy football remains a game forever dictated by our emotions. We pick players that we want to cheer for, who play for our favorite teams, and we’ll pass on players that we simply don’t like. After one week, we have an absolutely microscopic sample size, and I’m hear to tell you how and what you should, or should not overreact to.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt

Thankfully for owners of one of these two, you didn’t have to pay too heavily to get him. Chubb owners left Week 1 frazzled after Chubb was out-touched by Hunt, and saw almost all of the passing game work. Now is definitely the time to be concerned for the Chubb owners out there. Both of these guys, if we assume that the Browns don’t continue to resemble a freshly laid turd for the remainder of the season, are probably low end RB2’s, or high end flex plays. For Hunt, and what you paid for him, that’s just fine, and you should be thrilled, because his upside I think at this point is higher. If the Browns are terrible, and they appear to be terrible in perpetuity, the upside for Hunt remains much higher than for Chubb.

Overreaction Grade: Chicken Little-Chubb’s sky is falling at a tepid pace.

Saquon Barkley

Barkley’s absolute dud of 6 rushing yards against the Steelers no doubt sent several managers into panic mode, and if you play in a league with smart people, resulted in at least a couple lowball offers with the consensus top 2 pick in almost everyone’s drafts. Saquon, unlike Chubb however, has no significant backfield competition, and also has a QB under center that has shown that he at the very least has a chance to not be a complete bust (sorry Baker Mayfield). The Steelers defence looked tough, and a couple more weeks will show us if their performance was just a one-of, or if that defence is for real. Saquon owners though, don’t worry. The offence will continue to improve, and Saquon should see more use in the passing game as well, which just further bumps the upside. Don’t panic trade him for spare parts. He’s going to be just fine.

Overreaction Grade: Cool the jets, he’s going to be just fine.

Michael Thomas

Michael Thomas was a guy that I was thrilled to get at 10 overall in the main league that I play in, and as I watched a big chunk of the Saints on Sunday, I was less than thrilled with what I saw. There was always going to be a level of regression coming for MT- he caught 115 balls last year(!!!). Though he’s no doubt elite, that level of production was bound for a step or two back. The Saints heavily targeted and used Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook in the passing game and Thomas received a measly 5 targets for just 3 receptions. Not to mention, Thomas through the course of this game suffered a high ankle sprain, and then it was announced this evening that he was going to be out for several weeks, as the sprain was worse than initially thought. (Thankfully for me, I was able to unload him earlier today and am now feeling better and better with every passing moment). Even if Thomas re-captures 80% of what he was able to do last year, the Saints seem content not to force-feed him the ball, which is going to cap his ceiling even when he does get back from injury.

Overreaction Grade: Man, I’m happy that I don’t have to deal with this

Josh Jacobs

It’s always more fun to rag on the guys who suck. Managers and owners of teams love to kick the guys who are down...usually on other teams, but let’s take some positives from Week 1 too. Jacobs was a monster against the Panthers D, shredding them for 139 total yards and 3 TD’s. Not every game is going to be this massive, particularly in the TD department for Jacobs. But the Raiders are definitely going to continue to make a workhorse out of Jacobs, and he should continue to be a solid RB1 all season, even if he doesn’t score 3 TD’s every week.

Overreaction Grade: No overreaction needed.  This should be the norm.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

 CEH proved the hype was real, playing a big role in the Chiefs destruction of my lowly Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football. It didn’t even feel like THAT spectacular of a game, and CEH was far and away the only Chiefs RB who played meaningful snaps, and we can expect that to continue.

Overreaction Grade: Not an overreaction

AFC West 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC West 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Our FINAL stop in the team breakdown by divison is a division that has one of each draft target category. The AFC West has 1 FADE, 1 NEUTRAL, 1 BUY, and 1 BIG BUY. Before we get into the division featuring the reigning Super Bowl Champs, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Los Angeles Chargers

With significant offensive changes, the LA Chargers come into this season as a FADE. Having some very weapons questions of QB play and quality linger, which as an overarching theme matters the most in real and fantasy football.

QB Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert: Deep league priority FAs for matchup streaming. Taylor has shown to be a useful fantasy option in years past but the young gun 1st round rookie, Herbert, is waiting wings for his opportunity to shine.

RB Austin Ekeler: “Ladder Pick”, low RB1, High RB2, 18-20% auction, early round 2, Ekeler remains a PPR monster and without Melvin Gordon in front of him he has tremendous upside. QB Taylor will look to be an efficient passer looking early and often for Ekeler! I’m smashing his name if he is available in the 2nd round!

RB Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley: Both late round pick or $1 deep auction, both are end of bench RB options with Melvin Gordon gone, opportunity knocks, both are talented and present plenty of upside. Even in a lesser offense, opportunity is appealing for fantasy. I prefer Kelley to Jackson but I’m going to keep a close eye on both!

WR Keenan Allen: Low-WR2 to high-WR3, 8-9% Auction, round 5, Tyrod isn’t known for his deep passing game, so that already will limit Allen’s upside. BUT Keenan Allen is an amazing talent and defensive separator that he could make Tyrod life very easy with his silky smooth route running!

Love the player and targeting him despite non-ideal QB situation.

WR Mike Williams: WR5, round 13, 1-2% auction, big play threat may be the latest unappealing piece of this offense with Tyrod under center. Not to mention his shoulder injury may keep him out for the month or so of the season.

(Keenan Allen may be a nice sell high candidate after the first couple weeks)

I like the idea of Mike Williams and the potential of what he can bring to the field but am worried how the QB play may limit his upside and general draft/weekly stock.

TE Hunter Henry: TE1, 3-4% auction, round 10, Henry is a great player when he is healthy! I believe Henry and Ekeler will benefit the most from Tyrod’s style of play. Having said that, I will be drafting a lot of Henry since I value him above his ADP.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders complete their move from the bay to the desert. The Raiders will be NEUTRAL for fantasy purposes for the inaugural Las Vegas season! Young promising talent is there which makes fantasy feasting a possibility.

QB Derek Carr: QB2, deep league priority FA, in the past Carr has been able to be useful for fantasy but the QB position is so deep that it’s likely he won’t be needed outside of a total catastrophe. Good and young weapons surround him, so matchup specific upside is there.

RB Josh Jacobs: RB1, 20-21% auction, round 2, an impressive rookie campaign was capped due to a shoulder injury. He remains the top rusher in this offense, but lacks pass-catching upside with the depth behind him on the roster. He will show why he was a 1st round talent!

RB Jalen Richard:  Late round selection in deep leagues or priority FA. Raiders have potential to be playing from behind, so rostering pass catching options like this may be valuable, especially for PPR.

WR Henry Ruggs: “Ladder Pick”, WR4-5, 3-4% auction, round 12, Las Vegas selected Ruggs as the top WR in the draft. This is quite significant since they passed on Jeudy and Lamb to do so. Ruggs has unique speed and think the team will find creative ways of getting the ball in his hands.

He is a player I will be aggressively targeting in all draft formats. In the back half of drafts if I am able to get someone who I believe can be the next Tyreek Hill, I think it would be foolish to pass up on that kind of opportunity. Best ball target!

WRs Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfroe are both deep league late round stashes. Also worth an end of bench pick in 12 team leagues! Both can be a nice way to round out your bench. Edwards fits perfectly as the X receiver, I am very excited for his potential! Renfroe has PPR upside!

TE Darren Waller: TE1, 4-5% auction, round 8, Waller is somebody that everyone is rooting for. His personal story is a wonderful reminder that football is more than a game but also an opportunity to display personal redemption in magnificent fashion. He could be the focal point of this passing game and be a matchup nightmare for defenses!

Denver Broncos

The Broncos made one thing very clear over the last year: Drew Lock is their man! The Denver offense has some new upgrades which makes their squad a Buy!

QB Drew Lock: QB2, priority FA, because QB is so deep we can look to add Lock for bye week/injury replacement! With a full arsenal around him he is being set up to succeed, let’s hope he is up to the task!

RB Melvin Gordon: RB2, 9-10% auction, round 5, Gordon finds a new home in the same division. Narrative street truthers are salivating at the Broncos-Chargers matchups this season! Gordon is an upgrade to the RB group, but his value will be correlated to Lock’s success!

RB Phillip Lindsay: RB4, 4% auction, round 9-10, Lindsay can still be utilized as a FLEX in a deep league but is a nice bench stash being part of what should be a good offense. He will enter RB2 territory if Gordon were to miss time!

WR Courtland Sutton: WR2, 13-14% auction, round 3, Sutton had a breakout season and became one of the highest ranks risers from 2019 to 2020. Surrounded by good complimentary pieces, some drafters have shied away but I think it will only help him as he should still dominate targets in this offense.

WR Jerry Jeudy: WR4, 4-5% auction, round 10, Jeudy somehow lasted to Denver at 15th overall. This was an easy selection for the Broncos as he was arguably the most pro-ready WR prospect in the draft! A great compliment to Sutton, Drew Lock is a lucky man!

WR KJ Hamler: Priority FA, Hamler is a unique talent with amazing speed, another piece of this offense that has cemented Denver’s trust in Drew Lock! Denver got him in the 2nd even after landing Jeudy! Best ball stash, I’m very exciting to see what he is able to do in the NFL!

TE Noah Fant: Low-TE1, 2% auction, round 12, impressive rookie campaigns are rare for TEs but he is very athletic and really adds to the versatility of Denver’s offensive core. I’ll look for him to improve on a successful year 1.

It’s all on Drew Lock, Denver believes that he is their guy. I will not hesitate to pounce on Lock this year, it could payoff in a big way! Not much to lose taking a chance on him as your QB2.

Kansas City Chiefs

The reigning super bowl champs are a BIG BUY! Patrick Mahomes alone gives each piece of the core upside, but upside exists already with high caliber talent surrounding the big-armed Mahomes!

QB Patrick Mahomes: The QB1, my QB1, 10% Auction, round 4, I typically like to wait on QB but Mahomes (like Lamar Jackson) are very tempting if you absolutely love your first 3 picks. A full aresenal surrounds this dynamic thrower. I don’t see any SB hangover in KC!

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: RB1, 24-26% auction, late round 1, CEH was part of the monster LSU national champion team, KC thought so too by selecting him as the 1st RB in the draft! This is significant because of the RB class that he was a part of.

Andy Reid’s RB history speaks for itself! CEH is a pass catching back in an elite offense where he scoring upside for himself as well as rushing upside at the end of games when KC has a big league. He is no-brainer top 10 RB worthy of 1st round selection!

RB Darrel Williams: late round-$1 Auction stash.  We want players in elite offenses such as this! If CEH busts as a rookie or misses time, both become potential FLEX options or more!

WR Tyreek Hill: WR1 (my WR3), 21-22% auction, round 2, Hill is simultaneously a floor and ceiling play each week. He can bust a matchup wide open with his big play and YAC ability! I hope to see a lot of peace signs from him this season!

WRs Mecole Hardman (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 13) and Sammy Watkins (WR5, $1-2 auction, end of bench WR stash) present massive boom bust potential, both are Best Ball targets and will big trade prices throughout the season! Health is Watkins main concern as targets is Hardman’s.

TE Travis Kelce: The TE1, 15-16% auction, round 2, Kelce like Kittle is worth the 2nd round selection, TE is deep but these 2 are in a tier of their own as they can be true difference makers week to week! How is a defense supposed to stop this team?!

High scoring contests seem likely, should be enough feasting to go around but any opposing teams offensive weapons in general have inherent upside against the Chiefs since teams will have to be aggressive if they want to have a shot against KC! Fun will be had if your roster some Chiefs!

2020 Opt-Out Ramifications: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

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2020 Opt-Out Ramifications: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

By Tommy Harvey

On Wednesday, the Kansas City Chiefs announced RB Damien Williams has decided to opt-out of the 2020 NFL season.  Williams was a major component in the Chiefs comeback Super Bowl victory over the San Francisco 49ers.  

In April, Kansas City drafted RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of LSU with the final pick of the 1st round.  CEH has been considered a dynasty darling in start-up drafts, but his overall ADP in PPR leagues is around 33rd.  His 3rd round ADP will surely skyrocket with the news of Williams’ opt-out.

Currently being drafted as RB14, CEH will undoubtedly be moved into the top-10...or at least he should be.  While on the field and healthy, Williams was a fantasy monster with the Chiefs. After Kareem Hunt was released in November 2018, Williams’ usage received a major bump up.  He became a league winner for those who were lucky enough to be able to snag him.

Edwards-Helaire now has the ultimate opportunity in the NFL’s premiere offense.  The rookie RB was a dynamo during his Junior season at LSU, compiling eye-popping numbers in an offense that featured studs all over the field.  In 2019, CEH ran for 1,414 yards and 16 TDs, while catching 55 balls for 453 yards and another score.  

CEH boasts a skill set that is perfect for what the Chiefs want out of a RB.  He is a proven runner between the tackles, who can also step up in pass-pro, and leak out of the backfield to be a receiving threat.  QB Patrick Mahomes will love having him on the field with him.

2020 Fantasy Outlook:

247 carries, 1,065 yards rushing, and 8 TDs

65 targets, 53 receptions, 392 yards, and 3 TDs

265 PPR Points: Overall RB6

Dropping Coin:  The Kansas City Chiefs Spending Spree and It’s Fantasy Impact

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Dropping Coin:  The Kansas City Chiefs Spending Spree and It’s Fantasy Impact

By Tommy Harvey

The Kansas City Chiefs have paid some serious dough over the last 10 days to franchise QB Patrick Mahomes and DT Chris Jones.  The Super Bowl champs made Mahomes the first $500 million man and then turned around and signed Jones to a 4-year $80 million deal with $60 million of that functionally guaranteed.  

The 2020 NFL salary cap is set at $198.2 million, which is up from $188.2 million in 2019.  Since 2013, the cap has steadily risen from $123 million, however the current climate may dictate where that rises (or falls) to in 2021.   With so much uncertainty, how do teams forecast player contracts?  It doesn’t seem like the Chiefs are too worried at the moment.

Patrick Mahomes:

On July 6, the Madden 20 cover boy’s record setting deal was announced.  With a max value of $502,631,905, Mahomes has inked the richest deal in professional sports history.  The 10 year extension will have the 24 year old linked to Kansas City until 2031. 

Here’s a breakdown:

In my opinion, Patrick Mahomes is one of a handful of players in the NFL who is worth whatever his organization wants to pay him.  Chiefs fans pay to go to Arrowhead Stadium to see what incredibleness he has up his sleeve.  The better he performs, and consequently, the better the team performs, the more merchandise fans buy and the more money the franchise makes.  

Chris Jones:

Jones, 26, was on the franchise tag designation for the 2020 season, but had threatened to sit out without a resolution on a new deal.  With Wednesday’s extension deadline looming, the Chiefs struck a deal with the Pro Bowl DT.  Worth up to $80 million, the new contract locks up Jones for four more seasons.  

The champs now have their core all signed through the 2021 season, allowing them to attempt to build the next NFL dynasty.  In 2021, Travis Kelce and Tyrann Mathieu become unrestricted free agents.  Tyreek Hill’s deal runs through 2022 before he becomes a free agent.  What happens then?  Who will be cap casualties when the core players have to be paid...or demand to be paid?

Fantasy Impact:

Sammy Watkins - Watkins is an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season.  The WR is set to make $9 million and could be allowed to walk afterwards.  The 27 year old has played a full 16 games in a season only once...his rookie season of 2014.  He has also only tallied 60 receptions and over 1,000 yards in a season once...2015.  

The question has to be asked...and rightfully so...is the oft injured receiver worth paying $9+ million a year?  With guys like Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson around, Watkins’ time in Kansas City could be coming to an end.

Tyreek Hill - Hill is going to get a massive deal when his contract expires after the 2022 season.  The question is...will that deal come from the Chiefs?   Could they afford his services?  His numerous legal issues have been a concern, and a deal would likely be contingent on him staying out of trouble moving forward.

There is no doubting his on-the-field contributions.  He is one of the best WR in the NFL and his speed is second to none.  The 26 year old Pro Bowler has put up multiple seasons of 75+ catches and 1,100+ yards, and is widely considered a top-5 dynasty WR.  Would he still be considered that if he moved on to a different offense?

Mecole Hardman - The 2nd year WR could be a major beneficiary if fellow pass catcher Sammy Watkins moves on after his contract expires.  In a dynasty league, I would set my sights on Hardman as a trade target.  If he becomes the WR2 in Kansas City after 2020, he could be a major steal.

In 2019, Hardman was drafted by the Chiefs in the 2nd round.  What that tells me is that they have major plans for him and expect him to be a big part of their future offense.  When Tyreek Hill’s contract runs up after 2022, he could be in line to become the WR1 if Hill moves on.

Damien Williams - Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Miami Dolphins in 2014, Williams signed with KC in 2018 and became a dynamic part of their offense after Kareem Hunt was released.  In 2019, he was a key component in the Chiefs Super Bowl comeback victory over the San Francisco 49ers.  

The Chiefs drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the 1st round of the 2020 NFL Draft, seemingly spelling doom for Damien Williams fantasy owners.  Williams’ current contract is up after this season, and could be another player forced to find employment elsewhere.  

Travis Kelce - Kelce is a future Hall of Famer.  He has had over 1,000 yards the last four consecutive seasons, and has had at least 862 yards every season since he took over as the starting TE for the Chiefs.  His current deal is set to expire after ther 2021 season and he will be 31 years old.  

With Kelce getting older, will the Chiefs try to re-sign him to a big deal?  With Tyreek Hill’s deal expiring in 2022, will they look to pay him instead?

So many variables will end up contributing to who stays in Kansas City and who ultimately will leave.  One thing is for sure though, the Chiefs will have at least a couple more seasons of high octane offense as they look to repeat as Super Bowl champs.

 

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