Christian McCaffrey

Dynasty Dilemma: Christian McCaffrey

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Dynasty Dilemma: Christian McCaffrey

By Bob Miller

 

This offseason, we here at Dynasty Pros have produced a new series of articles titled “Dynasty Dilemmas”. It has been our most popular series to date. We give you an outside perspective on different players and answer the question “What do I do with this guy in my dynasty league? Should I sell high, buy low, or hold?”. The first player that came to my mind is perhaps the most intriguing name out there: Christian McCaffrey. 

 

The Reason to Sell

Last year there would have been very little debate on Christian McCaffrey. He was a fantasy stud, and anyone who had him considered themselves extremely lucky. Boy, how things can change in just a year. I am here to give you my personal opinion on what I would do with the man known as “CMC”.

 

Injuries

Well this is a layup. McCaffrey only played in three games in 2020, and seven games last season. That means he missed 23 of 33 possible games over the last two seasons. What's concerning to me is that these injuries were more ligament and soft tissue injuries. That scares me moving forward. If his hamstrings can't hold up we are in for yet another disappointing season ahead. That's just not going to cut it for a player that you have to spend a first-round pick on. Frankly I'd be scared to spend a second-round pick on him. 

 

Coaching

Panthers hired former Giants head coach Bob MacAdoo for their offensive coordinator position. Not the best news considering what a fantasy flop Saquon Barkley has been over the last couple of seasons. Who knows what kind of game plan they will put together on a weekly basis. Will they feed McCaffrey, pepper him with targets, or take a more conservative approach to avoid possible injuries? No matter the case, this is a situation we should probably try to avoid as much as possible. You can't win your fantasy league with your first round pick, but you sure as heck can lose your league because of your first round pick. Most of the CMC owners I have seen over the last couple of years have finished with some of the worst records of the season.

 

(Photo by: Nick Cammett/Diamond Images/Getty Images)

 

The Reason to Buy

McCaffrey is truly a one-of-a-kind player. There's not a player that comes close to what kind of production McCaffrey can give you. He is only 25 years old which means he could have several productive seasons still ahead. We all know his potential, especially in PPR leagues. Why would we not try to get this guy if we have the opportunity?

 

He is a League Winner

McCaffrey is as elite of a fantasy player as you can get. He has won a lot of people fantasy championships and money. His production, especially in PPR leagues, is second to none. 2019 McCaffrey finished with 471 fantasy points. Who was 2nd you ask? Aaron Jones, with 314 fantasy points. That is a substantial gap between first and second. That's what you call a League winner. When McCaffrey is on the field he has averaged nearly 30 PPR points per game over the last three seasons. It doesn't get any better than that. 

 

His Price Tag

Someone in almost every dynasty league is terribly frustrated with Christian McCaffrey. That’s what you like to see. If you are a serious Dynasty League player, then you should know that every player has a value of some sort. Whether that value is high or low, you may be able to find a use for almost anyone. A major part of dynasty strategy is buying low and selling high. If you can get McCaffrey at a big discount, why not look into it? Right now the reward actually may outweigh the risk. Getting him at a good discount right now is not the worst idea. He can only help you. You won't have much of an investment in him, and that's a good thing. If you roster him as your second RB or Flex, you're less likely to lose your season if something bad happens.

 

Verdict

I am a McCaffrey owner in several Dynasty leagues, and I have wrestled with myself on what to do with him over the last several months. After much thought I just can't allow myself to get burned again. Listen, I have no problem in someone acquiring McCaffrey at a big discount, and if you are a McCaffrey owner I have no problem with you holding him as well. With all of that being said my decision is to sell McCaffrey, but I am waiting for him to show everyone that he's healthy. Once the season starts, I will strike to maximize my profit. McCaffrey has already burned me twice. I will not allow it to happen a third time.

 

NFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Welcome to 2020 NFL team breakdown!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically...each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this, but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from your's truly. Throughout the team breakdowns, be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with the coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better...always!

Let’s reveal where the offensive cores fit, shall we?

BIG BUY:
Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona Cardinals, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BUY:

Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, and the Denver Broncos

NEUTRAL:

Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, New York Giants, New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, and the Minnesota Vikings

FADE:

Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, and The Washington Football Team.

We begin our team breakdown with the fantasy friendly NFC South…

Carolina Panthers

Overall this offense is an absolute BUY! The offense begins and ends with Christian McCaffrey, but there is a lot to like in the offensive skill position core.

QB ‪Teddy Bridgewater: high upside QB2, $1 in 14 team auction leagues, priority FA regarding starter injury/bye week. Teddy’s NFL journey has been a wild ride, he now finds himself on a Carolina Panthers team with a new head coach in defensive-minded Matt Rhule and a new offensive coordinator with aggressive and fast-pace play calling Joe Brady; formerly the OC of the 2019 National Champion LSU Tigers. Whoa baby!

‪RB Christian McCaffrey: THE RB1, 1.01, 35% auction budget. He is a cheat code and will remain at top of the draft board until proven otherwise.

WR DJ Moore: a PPR and YAC stud, WR1, 15-17% auction budget, Round 3 target, will be absolutely smashing his name if he falls to Round 4

‪WR Curtis Samuel: WR5, WR4 (if robust RB) upside depth stash, PPR league target, 1-2% auction budget, round 13

WR Robby Anderson: WR5, WR4 (if robust RB), unpredictable big play ability makes him most appealing in Best Ball leagues, 1-2% auction budget, round 14

TE Ian Thomas: TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside, $1 in deep auction leagues, priority FA regarding starter injury/bye week

Atlanta Falcons

This year the Falcons continue to be a consistent and fantasy friendly offense. They are in my upper echelon of offenses to target for all draft types. The Falcons offensive core fits into my BIG BUY category!

QB Matt Ryan: “Ladder Pick” QB1 has the best WR duo in the league and a new RB and TE target. I expect a lot of high scoring contests out of this team with Matt Ryan being the ultimate beneficiary. 4-6% of auction budget, round 6-7 target, he is QB worth reaching for even when conventional wisdom says to wait on QB.

RB Todd Gurley: High risk/high reward - RB2 is preferable, but would be happy with him as my RB1 if I were to go robust at WR or grab an elite TE in round 2. With a crowded backfield behind him, I would hold any of backups in Brian Hill or Ito Smith as priority FA adds. If Gurley is drafted as your RB1, I would make RB a big priority for rounds 5-9. 14-18% auction budget. Round 4 would be desirable.

WR Julio Jones:  WR1, 20-22% auction budget, round 2. He is a GO is all league formats, although I would be a bit more aggressive in best ball formats. Incredibly solid option, also highly productive and I hope that production shows up a bit more in the TD column.

WR Calvin Ridley: “Ladder Pick” - WR2 with WR1 upside. The perfect compliment to Julio Jones has been a producer each year and now he enters his 3rd season destined to breakout. Give me ALL of the Calvin Ridley shares!! 13-14% auction budget, round 4. You know the GIF of Winnie the Pooh sitting at the table with the pot of honey in front of him, his napkin tied around his neck, utensils in hand, eyes closed, smiling and dancing back and forth. Well, I’m Winnie the Pooh and Calvin Ridley is the honey.

TE Hayden Hurst: This TE1 is in a tier with Evan Engram, he will finally get his chance to shine in this juggernaut offense.

New Orleans Saints

The Sean Payton-Drew Brees brain-trust continues to be an entertaining and fantasy friendly offense. The Saints offensive core will remain a BUY!

QB Drew Brees:  QB1, 4% of auction budget, round 7-8 target, consistently productive surrounded by some of the game best weapons!

RB Alvin Kamara:  RB1, 28-30% of auction budget, round 1, PPR dream, just flat out good at the game

RB Latavius Murray:  RB3, this zero-RB draft strategy target serves as a great compliment to Alvin Kamara, if Kamara misses time Murray enters low RB1/high-RB2 territory. 5-7% of auction budget, round 9-10 target

WR Michael Thomas: The WR1, this PPR machine broke the NFL catches record last season with 144 catches. This is an average of 9 per game. 9 catches PER GAME!! I’m honestly happy if a WR gets around 9 *targets* a game. I see no sign of him slowing down. 28-30% auction budget, round 1

WR Emmanuel Sanders: One of my favorite players is now playing along side of Michael Thomas with Drew Brees throwing to him...you love to see it! WR3, 7-8% auction budget, round 9-10

TE Jared Cook: Low end TE1, 2-3% auction budget, round 9, I think any smart fantasy player would want pieces of the New Orleans offense - he may not seem like a “sexy” pick but what I think is “sexy” is opportunity in an elite offense. Also, do yourself a favor and remind yourself of what he did in the second half of the season last year.

TE Adam Trautman: A dynasty favorite, this extremely athletic rookie will be learning from a big play veteran in Jared Cook and will have the pleasure of playing Drew Brees for what he has left and possibly Jameis Winston in the future. BUY!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bruce Arians, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, OJ Howard, Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn...BIG BUY!!

QB Tom Brady: QB1, 3-4% auction budget, round 10. Brady enters into a smorgasbord of offensive weapons that I argue boasts the 2nd best WR and TE groups in the league and with a decent stable of RBs this team will feast. Brady will be the prime beneficiary of this offense!

RBs Ronald Jones: (RB3, 7-8% auction budget, round 7 if robust WR with elite TE strategy) and Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB4, 4-5% auction budget, round 10) are the only draftable RBs for 12 team drafts. LeSean McCoy and Dare Ogunbowale should be priority FA if Jones or Vaughn miss time. I want players in this offense so keep a close eye.

WRs Chris Godwin (WR1, 16-18% auction budget, round 2) and Mike Evans (WR1, 14-15% auction budget, round 3) are the most important pieces of this offense, they will help open up the running game as well as help the TE create mismatches. I love them both in all formats, I’d be willing to be aggressive to draft Mike Evans in best ball formats.

TEs Rob Gronkowski (low end TE1, 1-2% auction budget, round 9), OJ Howard (TE2 with upside to be TE1 group if Gronk were to miss time, $1 deep auction league stash, priority FA) and Cameron Brate (very late round target for best ball formats, priority FA in all other formats if Gronk/Howard were to miss time or as a bye week replacement).

I will generally be fading Gronk this year. I think the best and smart play is to target him late or for cheap in an auction draft with the hopes that he produces well enough early on to be used as a sell high candidate. I hope I am wrong on that because he is an awesome and fun player who I fear will be mainly touchdown dependent.

 

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder

Are you Teddy for Some Football?!

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Are you Teddy for some football?!

by Matt Kelley

Quaterback Peyton Super Bowl

Gone are the days of ‘Superman’ Cam Newton. Gone are the days of ‘Riverboat Ron’. Insert Teddy Bridgewater at Quarterback and Matt Rhule as the Head Coach. With fantasy being a game where you want to rely on history, predictability and opportunity, what can we expect out of the Panthers and this new look offense? 

First off, Christian McCaffery. Good at football. I’m not going to tell you something you don’t already know about the league’s most dynamic running back, the top scoring fantasy running back, and in PPR the top scoring player. Nothing should change here, even with the new coaching regime. The Panthers went all defensive in this year’s NFL draft and have signed no one of note behind CMC. All systems are a go once again. Take him in redraft, take him in dynasty, take him everywhere. 

The real questions come in with the rest of pieces in this offense. The Panthers just never got off to a rhythm last season going from Cam Newton to Kyle Allen to Will Grier. There wasn’t much that was pretty about the QB play last year in Charlotte. Parting ways with Cam Newton, the Panthers turn to Teddy Bridgewater (originally with the Vikings, horrendous injury, backup to Drew Brees on the Saints). Teddy’s journey is quite the story and he now has a chance to prove himself as a full-time starter. He’ll also have the benefit of Joe Brady calling the plays whom he will be familiar with from his time in New Orleans. In a Covid shortened off season, that could prove to be very valuable. Bridgewater started six games last year in place of Brees while he was injured. In that span the Saints went 6-0 and Bridgewater threw nine touchdowns to only two interceptions. Ball security will be huge for Carolina staying on the field as they had 20 interceptions last season in their final 10 games. Teddy can be looked at as a steady QB2 in two quarterback or superflex leagues.  The longer the offense is on the field, the more opportunities for guys like…

…D.J. Moore. Moore racked up 135 targets, 87 catches for 1175 yards and 4 touchdowns in 15 games (he sat in a meaningless week 17 matchup). All of that with subpar QB play. Before  you read the next sentence please know, I’m not calling D.J. Moore the same player as Michael Thomas. However, Moore is the clear  wide receiver one in Carolina and the routes that he thrives on (slants, digs, outs) are similar routes that Michael Thomas thrives on. Short, quick routes that allow the receiver to get into space and do work after the catch. In six games with Bridgewater, Michael Thomas saw double digit targets in three of those games and in another he had nine targets. This should be a solid pairing. Much like CMC, he’s a viable fantasy player in any format. 

Now, who is the third option  in Carolina? Well, it seems the Panthers paid Robby Anderson to come in and take that role (follow the money). He definitely flashed in his time with the Jets and is a deep threat that the Panthers need. Much has been made about Bridgewater’s lack of throwing the ball deep. While his arm isn’t that of Pat Mahomes, I expect him to take his fair shots with Anderson. Robby is best suited as a WR4/5 on your team until we can see what his role is a bit more definitively. 

This leaves us with everyone’s fantasy darling of last season, Curtis Samuel and tight end Ian Thomas. Samuel is still only 23 years old and the Panthers did utilize a second round draft pick on Samuel however, that was an old regime and again, they paid Robby Anderson to come in to be a difference maker on the outside. Samuel may have some games or plays that pop but, my guess is he’ll be on the field more in three WR sets, not two, and could see his target share diminish. Ian Thomas on the other hand is taking over a role that is completely vacant as Greg Olsen is now a Seahawk. Thomas has largely played behind Olsen the last two seasons  and will now seize that role for himself. Olsen saw 82 targets over 14 games last season. That wouldn’t be an unreasonable number for Thomas to see if he stays consistent. Again, a player that can benefit from Bridgewater with the intermediate routes. He has potential to sneak into the back end of the TE1 category and can be streamed in plus matchups. 

Overall, the Panthers are trending up. Coach Rhule is likely to run a faster, college influenced offensive system  that will have the Panthers running more plays per game. The defense will need to mold with all of the new pieces (and the loss of Luke Kuechly) but will surely improve as the season trudges on. They’re in a division where shoot outs are a real possibility at any point. We all know CMC and D.J. Moore are fantasy assets but don’t sleep on the rest of those Panthers.

@ThatMattKelley

ADP Early Values: NFC South

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ADP Early Values- NFC South

by Matt Kelley

 

ADP. Average. Draft. Position. There’s almost nothing you’ll hear more about in terms of a
fantasy football draft between now and the kickoff of the NFL season. ADP can fluctuate
depending on your league type, scoring and league size. For the sake of this article, we’re going
to assume that the league is a 12 team, PPR, single QB, and a total of 16 roster spots (all ADP
in this article is based on Bestball 10’s 12 player leagues). Pretty standard league, a format
you’ll most likely play in if you’re reading this

.
As always, the goal in a draft is to take someone at an Average Draft Position that is most
beneficial. Let’s say you want Drew Brees as your QB. Nothing wrong with that, but you don’t
need to take him with your first pick. In fact, you probably don’t need to take him with your first
eight picks. If you wait eight picks and miss out on him, good news for you, someone has let
value at another position fall and you’ll still get a good QB. ADP should be used as a guide
throughout your draft to understand where players are typically going, not as a strict source to
say you need to take this player. Depending on what position you draft from you may be able to
wait on a certain player, you may need to reach to get your guy and both of those are okay.
Know your leaguemates if you can. Where they’re from, tendencies, and experience. All of this
can influence ADP.
Now that we’ve breezed by what ADP is, what it means, and how it’s used, let's look at some
fellas in the NFC South that should outperform their ADP.

Atlanta Falcons:

Russell Gage-- I know, how many fantasy relevant wide receivers can the Falcons have? Well,
I’m borderline saying three. We all know about Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley but if you didn’t
watch a lot of Falcons football last year, you may have missed out on Gage. Then again, if you
did, he may have won you a week here and there from the waiver wire. Gage is currently going
at pick 232-- 19th round-- i.e. free unless you’re in a really, really deep league. So while
technically you don’t need to draft Gage by ADP, he might be worth that late round flyer pick.
Mohammud Sanu was dealt to the Patriots and that role has been filled by Gage. From week
eight on, Gage saw at least four targets in every game. In games without Jones or Ridley, Gage
saw double digit targets in two games. In two other games with Jones and Ridley, Gage saw
nine targets. Gage totaled 70 targets from week seven forward. Austin Hooper vacates 97
targets (over 13 games) and I don’t think all of those are going right back to Hurst. If you haven’t
caught on by now, the Falcons throw the ball a lot. Normally you’d hear there’s too many
mouths to feed between Jones, Ridley, Hurst and Todd Gurley but, I think the volume is there
for Gage to have flex appeal on most any given week. He’ll be on the field in three wide receiver
sets so his snap share is capped but, should Julio or Ridley miss time, he’s an easy plug and
play. If you draft him, you can save your FAAB and not worry about fighting for him on the
waiver wire.

Carolina Panthers:

Christian McCaffrey-- ok just kidding. Actual Player: Ian Thomas. As mentioned in my Panthers
preview, Ian Thomas is now the TE in Carolina, no longer behind Greg Olsen. Ian Thomas is
currently going as the 18th TE off the board, pick 143 overall, top of the 12th round. He’s going
nearly 30 picks after Dallas Goedert who is the second TE on his own team. The top three TE in
fantasy seem to be pretty clear cut with Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews. There’s
some positions where I deviate from top players, TE isn’t one of them, these guys are to me, in
their own class. So if you miss out on these three guys, WAIT. There’s a ton of TE’s left after
those three and it's one of the most difficult positions to lockdown in fantasy, I know. Here’s the
thing though, Thomas walks into a role where the TE saw 82 targets last season in 14 games.
Nearly six targets a game. Carolina is in an entirely new regime with Matt Rhule and company
but, the offense should see an uptick in pace, which should mean more plays, which should
mean more opportunity. 80+ targets is well within the range of outcomes for Thomas. Thomas is
also going after guys like Hayden Hurst (whew, that hype train is starting to go off the rails),
Jonnu Smith, Jack Doyle, and T.J. Hockenson. Not to get too deep into the woods here
because we could be here all day but Thomas has a very real possibility to outperform all of
these players. Is there risk involved? Yea, we’re talking about a player in the 12th round. I think
Thomas will be worth your pick and worth the wait at the position and finish around TE 14, with
an outside shot to break into the top 12.

New Orleans Saints:

Emmanuel Sanders. I’m going to be real honest... I have buyers remorse from buying into a role
that has been unpredictable for fantasy managers over the years. Teddy Ginn, Tre’Quan Smith
(shudders), and Brandon Coleman. It’s been since 2016 since the WR2 on the Saints had
meaningful value and wasn’t just a shot in the dark (technically Michael Thomas was the two
that year with Brandin Cooks being the one, remember that?). So why is this year different?
Well, few things. The NFC South is absolutely loaded. Every one of those matchups has the
ability to turn into a shootout. Oh by the way, the Saints also face the Raiders, Lions, and the
Chiefs (good luck keeping up). Michael Thomas is largely, and rightfully so, considered the best
WR in the league. Attention will surely be devoted his way giving Sanders both the second best
defender on a team and often, in plus matchups. Emmanuel Sanders walked right into San
Francisco last season and got 97 targets on a team that threw the ball 476 times. The Saints
have been lower passing volume the last couple of years but the Saints should surpass the 500
attempt mark in what could be QB Drew Brees last season. If the Saints throw 530 times,
Emmanuel Sanders would need an 18% target share to see 95 targets. Both seem like fairly
reasonable numbers. Plus, Drew Brees is still hyper efficient. Manny Sanders has an ADP of
113, the middle of ninth round and the 47th WR off the board. While his upside is capped
because, well, Michael Thomas, Sanders can provide you with weekly flex value with occasional
WR2 upside. I’m going back to the well here, give me Manny Sanders!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Tom Brady. It’s still weird that he isn’t a Patriot right? Gronk too. At this moment, you could say
both guys are a value but, let’s focus on Brady. Brady currently has an ADP of 122, the first pick
of round 10, and the 13th QB off the board. He’s teetering on QB1 territory here, so he’s a value
for now, we’ll have to see what this looks like in August. The Patriots have largely won off of
defense, short passes, featuring random running backs, and ‘Beli-checking’ everyone. At least
we think, right? Brady has actually thrown the ball at least 570 times the last three seasons. In
4pt per passing touchdown leagues, Brady hasn’t hit the 300 fantasy point mark since 2015.
He’s been a steady option, he just hasn’t necessarily provided league winning upside. Grant you
in 2016 he scored 258 points after his "Deflategate" suspension and he could have won folks a
league that year. This year though, Brady departs everything he’s ever known to a team that
has arguably the league's best wide receiver corps. He’s reunited with his buddy Rob
Gronkowski so there’s a familiar safety blanket for Brady assuming Gronk can stay on the field.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are absolute monsters and Brady’s best collective options in
years. Brady has quietly thrown for over 4000 yards in each of the last three seasons. As talked
about with the Saints, the Bucs are in this loaded NFC South and are going to have to put up a
lot of points. I expect Brady is currently being drafted at his floor with a ceiling of being in the top
8 fantasy quarterbacks. Think Jameis Winston numbers with a *few* less interceptions.

@ThatMattKelley