Christian Kirk

Dynasty Dilemma: Christian Kirk

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Dynasty Dilemma: Christian Kirk

By Steve Uetz

 

Always the bridesmaid, never the bride: Welcome to Christian Kirk’s Dynasty Dilemma

Christian Kirk made a splash in free agency as he was signed to the Jacksonville Jaguars; the first of many eyebrow raising signings made by the Jaguars new General Manager Trent Baalke. Kirk was gifted with a four-year $72 million contract, with $37 million guaranteed. Kirk at 25 years old, is entering his 5th season after spending the first leg of his career with the Arizona Cardinals in a mostly ancillary role.

As a college prospect he profiled to be an NFL star but failed to live up to the expectations that his college career and 2nd round draft capitol suggested. The Cardinals mightily struggled in Kirk’s rookie season under short-tenured head coach Steve Wilks and QB bust Josh Rosen. His ability remained untapped as he never led the Cardinals in receptions, always playing in a supporting role to elite veteran teammates like Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins. It wasn’t until the 2021 season where his potential was finally consistently on display as the season came to its conclusion.

Christian Kirk’s dynasty dilemma is centered around the potential offensive role in his new environment. He was paid like a superstar as he is currently earning top-10 WR money, but for fantasy what should concern us the most is opportunities through touches/targets, and the quality of such opportunities. Big money does not always equal big opportunity; see Kenny Golladay from 2021. Will Trevor Lawrence and new head coach Doug Pederson bring out the best in Kirk? Or will Kirk continue to be the bridesmaid and never the bride.

 

 

National disgrace Urban Meyer was unceremoniously fired in the middle of the 2021 season, wasting Trevor Lawrence’s rookie year development. The Jaguars are at the start of a new and improved era already as they recently hired Super Bowl winning Head Coach Doug Pederson; a coach who I believe was the perfect hire to jumpstart the development of the young franchise QB.

Among the obvious offensive struggles in 2021 seasons, the Jaguars finished 12th in pass attempts. Being in a top half passing offense across the league is a positive feature for any pass-catching weapon such as Christian Kirk. The Jaguars will most likely once again be a defensively struggling team in 2022, giving the potential of inflated pass attempts and opportunities to Kirk and fellow pass-catchers.

With the departure of D.J. Chark, Kirk is expected to occupy at least the WR2 role for the projected pass-heavy offense. The quality of those opportunities for the pass-catchers are trending up as Doug Pederson has been mostly successful in getting the most of his quarterbacks throughout his coaching career. Bottomline, opportunity and quality of opportunities are on the rise.

 

 

 

With all the recent positive momentum channeling through the Jaguars organization, Kirk is holding unique cautious optimism for seasons to come. Considering the hopefulness of an improved Jaguars offense and how strongly Kirk ended the 2021 season, this presents an advantageous moment to sell.

Kirk finished his 2021 season with career bests in receptions (77), receiving yards (982), yards per target (9.53), and WR fantasy ranking (28th Standard and 26th PPR). Kirk took advantage of his opportunity down the stretch as veteran WR stud DeAndre Hopkins missed 7 total games, including the final four weeks when Kirk had his best four-game stretch. In the fantasy playoffs (weeks 15-17) Kirk was a viable flex play as he had three consecutive games with 9 or more targets. Despite the success, I think the biggest factor in this triumph was DeAndre Hopkins’ absence.

The 2021 season was a career first that Kirk finished as a WR3 and played a full season. Over his first three seasons his final WR rank was as a WR5 in 2018 (STD 57, PPR 58), WR4 in 2019 (STD 45, PPR 38), and WR5 in 2020 (STD 51, PPR 52) while never playing a full season; he averaged missing 3 games per season over that stretch.

 

Verdict

Ultimately, the solution of how to handle the dynasty dilemma of Christian Kirk would be to either sell or hold, with a preference to sell.

I do think holding is reasonable for all roster types since there is enough optimism to remain patient in anticipation of how the Doug Pederson era kicks off. Kirk, at 25 years old is in his prime and holds Flex appeal but would be best implemented as an injury or bye week replacement which is universally needed.

Rebuilding Sell: If you have Kirk rostered on a rebuilding team, I would be looking to sell with the allure of the unknowns of an Urban Meyer-less Jaguars offense. I would suggest offering Kirk to a WR needy contending team for future draft capitol.

Contending Sell: If you have Kirk rostered on a contending team, I would be primarily looking to sell to upgrade at the WR position. In an attempt to flip Kirk, I would suggest offering Christian Kirk with a 2nd round rookie pick for a WR like Chase Claypool or Allen Robinson with a 3rd round rookie pick.

My assessment of Kirk is that he holds WR4 value, has a WR3 ceiling, and with only an outlier’s narrow path could he leapfrog into WR2 territory. Overall, I consider Kirk to be an expendable asset among the excess of viable WRs options who hold and have demonstrated higher upside across the fantasy football landscape. Kirk remains the bridesmaid.

 

 

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

My Dynasty Darlings

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My Dynasty Darlings

By Tim Lazenby

 

When approaching any start up draft, there is a lot of research to go over.  One of the key elements to look at is average draft position, or ADP.  Although ADP is a useful resource in determining which player to take when it’s your turn to draft, there are many players who, for whatever reason, are valued much lower than they should be.  And, in dynasty it’s even more important; as these players will be the foundation of your team for years to come.  The players listed underneath, are better than sleepers, but overlooked all the same.  Here’s one hidden treasure for each skilled position:

 

Quarterback - Daniel Jones, New York Giants

Daniel Jones, like many others, is quite polarizing.  Ever since he was drafted, many thought the Giants reached for him at 6th overall.  But, aside from Kyler Murray, he’s been the best quarterback of the class by far.  The problem with Jones is that he has not shown the promise that he had in his rookie season.  His yards per game, quarterback rating and touchdown to interception ratio have all spiraled, but in many ways, he’s improved.  His completion percentage has gone up and his interception percentage has gone down.

He may not look great, but there isn’t much more you look for in a fantasy football quarterback.  Although he doesn’t possess the rushing upside that Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray or Jalen Hurts do, his rush attempts per game have gone up every year.  Last season, he rushed for over 5.5 per game and I don’t see this number regressing.

The coaching will certainly improve, and the surrounding cast can only get better.  The organization has openly admitted that they’ve done him a great disservice and are committed to him moving forward.  I boldly believe, if he stays healthy, Jones will flirt with QB1 status this upcoming season.  And at an ADP going just before Sam Darnold and Jared Goff, it’s just insulting.  Grab him at this cheap price while you can.

 

Running Back - Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles

No disrespect to Miles Sanders, but he has not shown that he is the long term solution in the City of Brotherly Love.  As a runner, he looks decent, rushing at over 5 yards per game the last two seasons, but he lacks the touchdowns and elusiveness when it counts the most.  Add to that the string of running backs who have been better at times, his stock has never been lower.  If your quarterback leads the team in rushing, there is clearly a problem at the position.

Ironically, despite the constant shuffle at running back, the Philadelphia Eagles were the top rushing team in the NFL last season, so the value is there.  Kenneth Gainwell didn’t lead the team in any statistics last season, but if you look closer, he’s the one to own.  Despite the least opportunity, he was second in rushing touchdowns.

The greater part of his game, however, is his usage as a receiver.  He was the only running back with a receiving touchdown and was much more effective in yardage.  After only one season, Gainwell is looking like the best option moving forward, and although I’m not ready to believe he is the starter yet, I have faith he’ll overtake the position.  If you have the option to draft the best running back in the best rushing team, at a price of Darrel Williams or Tony Jones, the option is glaringly obvious.

 

Wide Receiver - Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals

Last season did not go as the Arizona Cardinals expected.  Despite starting as 7-0 and losing only 3 games through Week 13, they squeaked into the wild card game, only to get destroyed.  Despite the meltdown, there were bright spots on the roster.

We all know that DeAndre Hopkins is the primary option for Kyler Murray, but let’s not overlook the value of Christian Kirk here.  Although he’s not at the top of the depth chart, his consistency is extremely underrated.  In PPR last season, he had less than 9 points only 5 times and crossed 15 points the same number.  He’s never going to win your week, but he’ll certainly be a part of it.

As far as second receivers go, the options aren’t too much better.  His catch percentage and yards per target took a big leap in his third season.  Hopkins still has plenty left, but in dynasty, the long term projection is worth it for Kirk.  With players like Van Jefferson and Courtland Sutton valued similarly at ADP, choose Christian Kirk.

 

Tight End - Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Not too many players had a quieter success than Cole Kmet last season.  While the accolades for youth at the position went to the likes of Pat Freiermuth, Cole Kmet hasn’t been on the minds of drafters, even though the talent is similar.

Truthfully, Freiermuth deserves praise, but so does Cole Kmet.  Despite having similar circumstances, the real differential was the touchdown generation.  With the exact same amount of targets, Kmet outgained Freiermuth by over 100 yards, but he scored no touchdowns.  This has turned him off for many when drafting.

Touchdowns are the most volatile statistic in fantasy football, and I don’t believe this is likely to repeat itself with Cole Kmet.  Even though he shared the field with Jimmy Graham, Kmet was still the 8th most targeted tight end in the league last season.  Clearly having the trust of his quarterback and at only 22 years old, the sky's the limit.  With players like Logan Thomas and Evan Engram being drafted around the same time, Cole Kmet is one of the biggest values in fantasy football this draft season.

NFC West 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC West Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We now head west to cover our 3rd  division! We will be covering the NFC West but first here are some reminders about what my breakdowns are all about:

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Seattle Seahawks

I want to BUY offense with elite QBs; Russell Wilson is elite! Seattle remains a BUY despite some question marks.

QB Russell Wilson: QB1 6-7% auction budget, round 6-7, one of absolute favorite players. Efficient passing and rushing ability makes him a defensive nightmare. As long as Wilson is playing football at a high level. I honestly don’t care how corny he is. Absolute Stud!

RBs Chris Carson (RB2, 10-11%, round 4, fade at his current ADP), Rashaad Penny (priority FA), and Carlos Hyde (RB6, $1 deep auction, round 14/priority FA). This situation is a big mess. Carson’s health is a big concern for me. I love the player but hate the ADP. As of now I can’t imagine leaving a draft with him as my RB2. RB3 and exercise patience, sure.

However this is difficult to justify considering his ADP. Any RB in this offense that gets a decent work load is worth owning because Russell Wilson opens up the offense extremely well.

Carson and Penny's health issues are legitimately worrisome and in the first 5 rounds (Carson being a round 3-4 pick) I want to be as least risk averse as possible. Hyde may start the season as a tremendous value, get him for $1 in an auction, get him as the last RB on your bench and hope he does well week 1 and sell high baby!

WRs Tyler Lockett: (WR2, PPR stud, 14-15% auction, round 5) and DK Metcalf (low end WR2/high WR3, 11-12% auction budget, round 6, Best Ball target) are very different players and compliment eachother incredibly well; Russell Wilson is a lucky man. This duo will continue to shine and likely outperform their ADP. I prefer Lockett as a more reliable week to week player.

TEs Will Dissly, Greg Olsen, and Jacob Hollister are all undraftable in 12 team non-TE premium leagues and should be considered priority FAs. I want pieces of this offense so keep a close eye!

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals come in as a BIG BUY this year, already trending up, the addition of DeAndre Hopkins puts them over the top!

QB Kyler Murray: QB1, 6-7% auction budget, Round 6, an impressive rookie campaign was a wonderful showing of how he won the bet on himself choosing to go into the NFL rather than the MLB. First world problems, am I right? Murray will be the primary beneficiary of this offense that is ready to feast with one of the league best WR trios.

RB Kenyan Drake: Low-end RB1/high-RB2, 18-20% auction, early round 2, plenty of upside being the lead RB in this high powered offense. Expect Drake to have favorable looks as opposing defenses need to account for Murray’s rushing ability and the lethal trio of WRs.

RB backups Chase Edmonds (RB5, 1-2% auction, round 13), and Eno Benjamin (RB6, $1 deep auction) are late round stashes, Edmonds stash in all leagues, Benjamin deep league stash.

WR DeAndre Hopkins: WR1, 23-24% auction, late round 1,

WR Christian Kirk: WR3, 6-7%, round 8

WR Larry Fitzgerald: WR5, $1, round 14

Hopkins remains an elite WR with a new team and will lead this fantastic trio of WRs. Kirk is an excellent complimentary piece opposite Hopkins with big play ability. Fitzgerald is still solid, the addition of Hopkins hurt his targets/catches upside, but certainly worth grabbing at the end of drafts.

San Francisco 49ers

I love me a Kyle Shanahan offense but for the offense I consider them NEUTRAL overall. Fair ADP all around.

QB Jimmy Garroppolo: QB2, priority FA bye week/injury replacement candidate, I wish Jimmy G was as consistently useful for fantasy as he is handsome. Wait what? Never mind...Perhaps I’m too low on him but maybe I’m too distracted by his beautiful smile. *slapping myself in the head* STICK TO THE FOOTBALL dang it!! Good weapons, better looks, I wish Deebo was 100% (don’t we all)

RB Raheem Mostert: Low-RB2, high-RB3, 9-10% auction, round 7, a very unique career path has lead him to be a starter in a good offense. He’s a great story of determination and perseverance. He would be valued higher if he wasn’t in such a crowded backfield.

RB Tevin Coleman: RB4, 2-3% auction, round 9/10, I really love the idea of Tevin Coleman, but the reality of Tevin Coleman often leaves much to be desired. Despite mixed success, struggles with health, and being in a crowded backfield, he is still a fine depth RB selection.

RB Jerick McKinnon: RB5, $1, end of bench RB/priority FA (especially if Mostert/Coleman were to miss time). Despite not having played in an NFL game in 2 years, he is still an intriguing player, same cautions as above, but a cheap option in a good offensive system seems like a smart move.

WR Deebo Samuel: WR4, 3-4% auction, round 10, the versatile playmaker is being valued below ADP since he will start the season nursing a broken foot. If you love your draft depth and he is still available, get him and be patient, enjoy him as a flex when healthy or use him as trade bait. Love him but wish he were 100%!

WR Brandon Aiyuk: WR5, 2-3%, round 12, this dynamic prospect enters into a great opportunity with Deebo missing time. Solid depth stash can be used as a trade bait early on to a WR needy team.

TE George Kittle: TE1, 12-13%, round 2, Kittle is awesome he is worth the cost, he has that crazy look in his eye (in a good way) and is heat seeking missle that wants to destroy everything it’s way. Sign me up!

Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay leads the way. Woods and Kupp are trending up. Jared Goff could go off. Henderson and Akers are ankle breakers. Tyler Higbee will be a bust, his ADP I do not trust. This NEUTRAL offensive core should give fantasy points galore.

QB Jared Goff: High-QB2, $1, deep league late round stash, Best Ball target. Surrounded by great weapons and a with an offensive-minded head coach, Goff could be an absolute steal in drafts!

RB Cam Akers: RB3, 5-6% auction, round 8, an intriguing prospect lands in a great offense. In the 2nd round of the 2020 draft The Rams drafted Cam Akers as their first selection which is significant since they did not own a 1st rounder. He has big shoes to fill with Gurley gone, however he lands in a crowded backfield.

RB Darrell Henderson: RB3 if robust WR with elite TE, ideal RB4, 5-6% auction, round 9, left much to be desired last year, perhaps expectations were too high for him. He is one of the first player I add to my queue in drafts. Am I the only one who uses the queue?!

WR Robert Woods: Low-WR1, high WR2, PPR target, 14-15 %, round 4, if he falls to round 5 smash his name and await the groans in the draft chat. Am I the only one who looks at the draft chat during a draft?!

WR Cooper Kupp: WR2, 13-14%, round 5, Kupp and Goff have unique chemistry, having the QBs’ eye and trust is a quality trait. Draft him with confidence!

TE Tyler Higbee: High-TE2 for me, 2-3% auction, round 11, generally for me he is a fade. We can’t talk about Higbee without mentioning the way he ended his season last year. It was literally unbelievable! Dude balled out! Gerald Everett was injured during that span. Can Higbee do it again? Sure, maybe, good offense and should get good matchups. I just really worry that consensus rankings and ADP hold too much recency bias. Look, if he falls far enough I will not hesitate to draft him. He is a fade at his current ADP but every draft is different, prepare to zig when the draft zags. TE Gerald Everett is no slouch, priority FA; I want to keep a close eye on players in good offenses!

It’s In The Cards

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It’s In The Cards

By Matt Kelley

The Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, L.A. Rams, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all had a  common thread when it came to fantasy WR production last season. Do you know what it was?  They all sustained two top 24 fantasy wide receivers. Five teams accomplished this in 2018 as well. So what leads to the ability for these teams to produce multiple top-end fantasy wide receivers, and what new team has the chance to provide this fantasy value this season? Let's take a look...

Pass Volume:

Of the four teams above, three of them were in the top-5 of pass attempts in the NFL last season. The lone team not in there was Detroit who finished with the 16th most pass attempts per game (35.7); 4 attempts less per game than Tampa Bay (39.4). Matthew Stafford only started eight games for the Lions before falling victim to a back injury. Through eight games, Stafford averaged about 36.4 pass attempts per game. While Stafford wasn’t throwing at a considerably higher pace, it’s likely the Lions would have thrown more in general if not for having to turn to David Blough and Jeff Driskel.  

Targets: 

The breakdown of targets for the players inside the top-24 WRs on these teams is as follows:

Atlanta Falcons: 

Calvin Ridley: 93 targets, 17.7% target share, 63 receptions

Julio Jones: 157 targets, 25.7% target share,99 receptions

Detroit Lions: 

Kenny Golladay: 116 targets, 21.1% target share, 65 receptions

Marvin Jones: 91 targets, 20.2% target share, 62 receptions

Los Angeles Rams: 

Cooper Kupp: 135 targets, 21.8% target share, 94 receptions

Robert Woods: 139 targets, 23.4% target share, 90 receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 

Chris Godwin: 121 targets, 22.2% target share, 86 receptions

Mike Evans: 118 targets, 23.8% target share, 67 receptions

The team most unlikely to repeat in this group based on targets is Detroit. While both players are seeing a great target %, the low receptions mean they’ll need to make up for reception totals in half and full PPR settings in an effort to repeat. Additionally, Davante Adams, Odell Beckham Jr, and Tyreek Hill all finished outside of the top-24 last season, largely due to injury. There’s a strong chance those WRs find their way back inside the top-24, provided they have healthy seasons. Second year WRs D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown, and Terry McLaurin are all also threats to bolster their way into the conversation. 

Defense:

The more points a defense allows, the more an offense has to go back onto the field. Pretty simple. So for fantasy purposes, give us some bad defenses, some negative game scripts, and let those passes fly. All four teams mentioned above were in the bottom half of the league in points given up. While Tampa’s defense could improve as it’s unlikely Tom Brady throws for 30 interceptions...a la Jameis Winston, the efficiency should skyrocket and there will be enough NFC South shootouts to keep both Evans and Godwin well fed. 

What team can find their way into this list for 2020?

Arizona Cardinals: 

                   

The Arizona Cardinals acquired Pro Bowl WR DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. Hopkins has seen 150 targets in each of the last five seasons. Yes, this is a different offense, however Arizona let up the 28th most points in the league, and they’ll need to throw to get back into games. While the Cardinals only threw the 18th most pass attempts in the league last season, 2nd year QB Kyler Murray should take a step forward in terms of taking less sacks, being more efficient, and seeing offensive drives continue, thus pass attempts will go up. 3rd year WR Christian Kirk fits the bill to join Hopkins as a top-24 WR. Kirk saw 108 targets for a 24.5% target share last season. With the addition of Hopkins, he’ll no longer need to operate as the team's WR1. While he may lose part of that target share % with Hopkins being a target hog, there will be plenty of volume and more quality targets for Kirk as Hopkins will likely draw top coverage. Kirk had 11 redzone receptions last season, 9th most in the NFL. He’s already a trusted target for Murray in the most important part of the field and is a great candidate to see a positive bump in touchdowns. Kirk is a steal right now in drafts going as WR38 and pick 95 overall in PPR leagues. Look for the Cardinals duo to join the ranks of the best fantasy WR tandems in the league.