Christian Kirk

Dynasty Dilemma: Christian Kirk

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Dynasty Dilemma: Christian Kirk

By Steve Uetz

 

Always the bridesmaid, never the bride: Welcome to Christian Kirk’s Dynasty Dilemma

Christian Kirk made a splash in free agency as he was signed to the Jacksonville Jaguars; the first of many eyebrow raising signings made by the Jaguars new General Manager Trent Baalke. Kirk was gifted with a four-year $72 million contract, with $37 million guaranteed. Kirk at 25 years old, is entering his 5th season after spending the first leg of his career with the Arizona Cardinals in a mostly ancillary role.

As a college prospect he profiled to be an NFL star but failed to live up to the expectations that his college career and 2nd round draft capitol suggested. The Cardinals mightily struggled in Kirk’s rookie season under short-tenured head coach Steve Wilks and QB bust Josh Rosen. His ability remained untapped as he never led the Cardinals in receptions, always playing in a supporting role to elite veteran teammates like Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins. It wasn’t until the 2021 season where his potential was finally consistently on display as the season came to its conclusion.

Christian Kirk’s dynasty dilemma is centered around the potential offensive role in his new environment. He was paid like a superstar as he is currently earning top-10 WR money, but for fantasy what should concern us the most is opportunities through touches/targets, and the quality of such opportunities. Big money does not always equal big opportunity; see Kenny Golladay from 2021. Will Trevor Lawrence and new head coach Doug Pederson bring out the best in Kirk? Or will Kirk continue to be the bridesmaid and never the bride.

 

 

National disgrace Urban Meyer was unceremoniously fired in the middle of the 2021 season, wasting Trevor Lawrence’s rookie year development. The Jaguars are at the start of a new and improved era already as they recently hired Super Bowl winning Head Coach Doug Pederson; a coach who I believe was the perfect hire to jumpstart the development of the young franchise QB.

Among the obvious offensive struggles in 2021 seasons, the Jaguars finished 12th in pass attempts. Being in a top half passing offense across the league is a positive feature for any pass-catching weapon such as Christian Kirk. The Jaguars will most likely once again be a defensively struggling team in 2022, giving the potential of inflated pass attempts and opportunities to Kirk and fellow pass-catchers.

With the departure of D.J. Chark, Kirk is expected to occupy at least the WR2 role for the projected pass-heavy offense. The quality of those opportunities for the pass-catchers are trending up as Doug Pederson has been mostly successful in getting the most of his quarterbacks throughout his coaching career. Bottomline, opportunity and quality of opportunities are on the rise.

 

 

 

With all the recent positive momentum channeling through the Jaguars organization, Kirk is holding unique cautious optimism for seasons to come. Considering the hopefulness of an improved Jaguars offense and how strongly Kirk ended the 2021 season, this presents an advantageous moment to sell.

Kirk finished his 2021 season with career bests in receptions (77), receiving yards (982), yards per target (9.53), and WR fantasy ranking (28th Standard and 26th PPR). Kirk took advantage of his opportunity down the stretch as veteran WR stud DeAndre Hopkins missed 7 total games, including the final four weeks when Kirk had his best four-game stretch. In the fantasy playoffs (weeks 15-17) Kirk was a viable flex play as he had three consecutive games with 9 or more targets. Despite the success, I think the biggest factor in this triumph was DeAndre Hopkins’ absence.

The 2021 season was a career first that Kirk finished as a WR3 and played a full season. Over his first three seasons his final WR rank was as a WR5 in 2018 (STD 57, PPR 58), WR4 in 2019 (STD 45, PPR 38), and WR5 in 2020 (STD 51, PPR 52) while never playing a full season; he averaged missing 3 games per season over that stretch.

 

Verdict

Ultimately, the solution of how to handle the dynasty dilemma of Christian Kirk would be to either sell or hold, with a preference to sell.

I do think holding is reasonable for all roster types since there is enough optimism to remain patient in anticipation of how the Doug Pederson era kicks off. Kirk, at 25 years old is in his prime and holds Flex appeal but would be best implemented as an injury or bye week replacement which is universally needed.

Rebuilding Sell: If you have Kirk rostered on a rebuilding team, I would be looking to sell with the allure of the unknowns of an Urban Meyer-less Jaguars offense. I would suggest offering Kirk to a WR needy contending team for future draft capitol.

Contending Sell: If you have Kirk rostered on a contending team, I would be primarily looking to sell to upgrade at the WR position. In an attempt to flip Kirk, I would suggest offering Christian Kirk with a 2nd round rookie pick for a WR like Chase Claypool or Allen Robinson with a 3rd round rookie pick.

My assessment of Kirk is that he holds WR4 value, has a WR3 ceiling, and with only an outlier’s narrow path could he leapfrog into WR2 territory. Overall, I consider Kirk to be an expendable asset among the excess of viable WRs options who hold and have demonstrated higher upside across the fantasy football landscape. Kirk remains the bridesmaid.

 

 

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

My Dynasty Darlings

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My Dynasty Darlings

By Tim Lazenby

 

When approaching any start up draft, there is a lot of research to go over.  One of the key elements to look at is average draft position, or ADP.  Although ADP is a useful resource in determining which player to take when it’s your turn to draft, there are many players who, for whatever reason, are valued much lower than they should be.  And, in dynasty it’s even more important; as these players will be the foundation of your team for years to come.  The players listed underneath, are better than sleepers, but overlooked all the same.  Here’s one hidden treasure for each skilled position:

 

Quarterback - Daniel Jones, New York Giants

Daniel Jones, like many others, is quite polarizing.  Ever since he was drafted, many thought the Giants reached for him at 6th overall.  But, aside from Kyler Murray, he’s been the best quarterback of the class by far.  The problem with Jones is that he has not shown the promise that he had in his rookie season.  His yards per game, quarterback rating and touchdown to interception ratio have all spiraled, but in many ways, he’s improved.  His completion percentage has gone up and his interception percentage has gone down.

He may not look great, but there isn’t much more you look for in a fantasy football quarterback.  Although he doesn’t possess the rushing upside that Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray or Jalen Hurts do, his rush attempts per game have gone up every year.  Last season, he rushed for over 5.5 per game and I don’t see this number regressing.

The coaching will certainly improve, and the surrounding cast can only get better.  The organization has openly admitted that they’ve done him a great disservice and are committed to him moving forward.  I boldly believe, if he stays healthy, Jones will flirt with QB1 status this upcoming season.  And at an ADP going just before Sam Darnold and Jared Goff, it’s just insulting.  Grab him at this cheap price while you can.

 

Running Back - Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles

No disrespect to Miles Sanders, but he has not shown that he is the long term solution in the City of Brotherly Love.  As a runner, he looks decent, rushing at over 5 yards per game the last two seasons, but he lacks the touchdowns and elusiveness when it counts the most.  Add to that the string of running backs who have been better at times, his stock has never been lower.  If your quarterback leads the team in rushing, there is clearly a problem at the position.

Ironically, despite the constant shuffle at running back, the Philadelphia Eagles were the top rushing team in the NFL last season, so the value is there.  Kenneth Gainwell didn’t lead the team in any statistics last season, but if you look closer, he’s the one to own.  Despite the least opportunity, he was second in rushing touchdowns.

The greater part of his game, however, is his usage as a receiver.  He was the only running back with a receiving touchdown and was much more effective in yardage.  After only one season, Gainwell is looking like the best option moving forward, and although I’m not ready to believe he is the starter yet, I have faith he’ll overtake the position.  If you have the option to draft the best running back in the best rushing team, at a price of Darrel Williams or Tony Jones, the option is glaringly obvious.

 

Wide Receiver - Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals

Last season did not go as the Arizona Cardinals expected.  Despite starting as 7-0 and losing only 3 games through Week 13, they squeaked into the wild card game, only to get destroyed.  Despite the meltdown, there were bright spots on the roster.

We all know that DeAndre Hopkins is the primary option for Kyler Murray, but let’s not overlook the value of Christian Kirk here.  Although he’s not at the top of the depth chart, his consistency is extremely underrated.  In PPR last season, he had less than 9 points only 5 times and crossed 15 points the same number.  He’s never going to win your week, but he’ll certainly be a part of it.

As far as second receivers go, the options aren’t too much better.  His catch percentage and yards per target took a big leap in his third season.  Hopkins still has plenty left, but in dynasty, the long term projection is worth it for Kirk.  With players like Van Jefferson and Courtland Sutton valued similarly at ADP, choose Christian Kirk.

 

Tight End - Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Not too many players had a quieter success than Cole Kmet last season.  While the accolades for youth at the position went to the likes of Pat Freiermuth, Cole Kmet hasn’t been on the minds of drafters, even though the talent is similar.

Truthfully, Freiermuth deserves praise, but so does Cole Kmet.  Despite having similar circumstances, the real differential was the touchdown generation.  With the exact same amount of targets, Kmet outgained Freiermuth by over 100 yards, but he scored no touchdowns.  This has turned him off for many when drafting.

Touchdowns are the most volatile statistic in fantasy football, and I don’t believe this is likely to repeat itself with Cole Kmet.  Even though he shared the field with Jimmy Graham, Kmet was still the 8th most targeted tight end in the league last season.  Clearly having the trust of his quarterback and at only 22 years old, the sky's the limit.  With players like Logan Thomas and Evan Engram being drafted around the same time, Cole Kmet is one of the biggest values in fantasy football this draft season.