Chris Godwin

Dynasty League’s Closing Windows

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Dynasty League's Closing Windows

By Joel Wirth

Dynasty players are all about the long view, but player values are fluctuating on a week-to-week basis. Two weeks ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown was a divisive back-end WR2 (although, I seem to recall someone extolling his virtues a while back on this very site https://dynastyprosfootball.com/objects-in-the-rear-view-mirroramon-ra-st-brown/), now he’s trading for no less than a 2023 1st plus a productive player. Paying market rate for a player today can be a clear win next week if that player’s value takes off in-between. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few players who you may want to look into trading for now before their value goes up and their trade window closes.

The Youngsters

Treylon Burks/Chris Olave

Dynasty veterans know the rule of thumb with rookie receivers is let them struggle early, then trade for them right before they learn the speed of the game, get in sync with their QB, and they start producing fantasy points. Garrett Wilson has shown us that sometimes happens sooner than we expect, even if they’re not Ja’Marr Chase-level talents. Burks and Olave could be the next two in line for feature roles. Tennessee looks like a flat out bad team and Derrick Henry looking like he’s running through molasses should lead to more passing volume and more garbage time than we’re used to with this team. Olave’s advanced metrics show a star in the making. Jameis Winston’s hideous early season inefficiency is the only thing holding him back right now. Neither of these two are exactly cheap, they still have most of their rookie draft shine, but like Wilson, they’re one elite game away from being highly coveted assets.

CeeDee Lamb/Kyle Pitts

Going into the season, Lamb and Pitts were two of the most valuable dynasty properties you could have; young, supremely talented, in great situations, and in Pitts’ case, playing an exceptionally scarce position. Real or perceived, their early season struggles have made them available for costs that would have been unthinkable on Labor Day. In one of my leagues, Pitts was traded for Darren Waller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. That offer would have been laughed at and insta-rejected not that long ago. At this point, it really can’t hurt to ask and see if they’re available at all. These two are Burks & Olave on steroids. One good game and they go back to being nigh-untouchable.

Travis Etienne

During best ball draft season, Etienne was the RB hotness. Two weeks into the season, James Robinson is unexpectedly back and Etienne is being benched in fantasy. That sound you hear is BUY LOW sirens going off. Much like Cam Akers, Robinson coming back from an Achilles injury so soon is a great story, but he’s been very inefficient, averaging less than 4 YPC. His value is being entirely propped up by touchdowns and Etienne’s high profile sure-touchdown drop on 4th down in the opener. Once those normalize, Etienne will go back to being the RB to own in Jacksonville, which will be a good thing, because…

Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville is like Old Faithful right now. You can feel the rumbling under your feet, you know the explosion is coming, you just don’t know when. Once the geyser blows, TLaw will jump up to and potentially surpass Joe Burrow status in superflex. He’s still the elite, generational prospect we saw in college and expected on Draft Day ‘21. Urban Meyer wrecked his rookie season, but even through that haze you can still see the Andrew Luck upside. If there are still doubters, relieve them of their burden.

Elijah Moore

Yes, Garrett Wilson is this week’s WR hotness, but don’t forget about Moore. He’s no less talented because he has another talented teammate in the WR room. Zach Wilson is due back imminently and we know he has more time together with Moore than Wilson. Plus, if (Zach) Wilson can live up to his draft pedigree, there will be plenty of room at the table in this offense for both to eat.

The Seasoned Vets

De’Andre Hopkins

This is simple math. After Week 3, he’ll be half way through his suspension and his managers will take an “I’ve held this long, why should I sell now” attitude, and deservedly so. If the DHop manager in your league is off to a slow start, now is the perfect time to go after him.

Travis Kelce

A 5/50/0 line in a prime time game is as bad as Kelce’s ever going to look, and for a Tight End, it’s still really not bad at all. You probably have until exactly 1:00 PM EDT Sunday to get him at the most modest of discounts. Be sure to mention how positively elderly Kelce is looking in your proposal.

Chris Godwin

The hamstring injury is legitimately the best thing that could have happened to him, forcing the Bucs to give his reconstructed knee additional time to heal. Like DHop, if his manager is off to a slow start and you can afford the downtime, see what it would take to get Godwin onto your roster.

D.J. Moore

He’s the same guy he’s always been. Carolina’s offense has unsurprisingly struggled coming together early, despite the expectations of default QB improvement. If Moore is the victim of over-inflated pre-season expectations, get him now before the Panthers pull it together.

Diontae Johnson

Speaking of guys who are what they’ve always been… You’ll likely have to wait until next week to make this deal go down since he played Thursday, but he has double digit targets in every game so far. The Steelers now have a “mini-bye” to self-scout and figure out how to start scoring touchdowns. Coming back against the Jets won’t hurt that effort, but it may tank your chances of trading for Diontae at value once he goes off.

Donovan Peoples-Jones

We end with a low cost/no cost long term stash. The window isn’t closing on this one so much as slowly shimmying down the sill. DPJ’s deep threat talents are a terrible match for Jacoby Brissett’s game-manager arm. Once Deshaun Watson’s suspension is over, look for him to get DPJ involved in the offense in ways he currently cannot be.

Dynasty Deathmatch: Chris Godwin vs Diontae Johnson

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Dynasty Deathmatch: Chris Godwin vs Diontae Johnson

by Ryan Ramsarran

 

Next up in our Dynasty Deathmatch series: Chris Godwin vs Diontae Johnson. Both former 3rd round picks, these 2 are great wide receivers that hover around the same value right now. Today, we’ll discuss why each one has an edge over the other, and ultimately decide on a winner! 

 

Chris Godwin

Godwin is a talented and reliable receiver going into his 6th season in the NFL. He spent his first 5 years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and recently signed a new 3 year contract to stay with the team. He’s had 2 1000+ yard seasons so far, and set a career high 98 receptions last year, before tearing his ACL in Week 15. Godwin had 1103 receiving yards this year and was averaging 9.1 targets per game (tied for 10th in NFL) before his injury. Godwin is often viewed as a WR2, likely from being on the same team as Mike Evans, but fun fact: Godwin has averaged more PPR points per game than Evans every year for the past 3 years! Due to some injuries, he hasn’t played a full 16 games since 2018, and won’t in 2022 either due to his ACL recovery. Although he’s missed a few games, he has finished top-15 in PPR points per game (among wide receivers) every year since 2019. In 2019 he was the overall WR2 which shows just how high his ceiling is. 

 

Tom Brady coming out of retirement was a good sigh of relief as the Bucs would have been in QB limbo, especially going into a weak 2022 QB class. Tampa was 1st overall in passing attempts last year and with Tom returning, they will most likely go back to letting him COOK. Godwin may miss a few weeks at the start of the season but will have plenty of opportunities when he gets back, especially with Antonio Brown and Gronk (as of right now) not being with the team for 2022.

 

 

Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson is severely undervalued. Like Godwin, he is a low-end WR1 that is priced as a WR2. Johnson is coming off a career year with 107 receptions, 1161 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Johnson is the clear alpha on the Steelers, boasting a 25.9% target share (8th highest in league) last year. Diontae is a PPR machine. He was 5th highest in receptions and averaged 17.2 ppg, which was 9th highest among wide receivers. These numbers are even more impressive when you remember that he had an ageing Big Ben as his QB. Diontae is a great route runner and is very good at creating separation. Not to mention he is going to have a new signal-caller this year.

 

Mitch Trubisky is coming in and he is no stranger to lasering in on one receiver. He peppered Allen Robinson with 150+ targets in both 2019 and 2020 and liked to have a true WR1 to rely on. There is also the scenario that Kenny Pickett (Steelers first round selection in the 2022 draft) eventually takes over as starting QB. Rookie QB’s tend to rely on one receiver more often than not, to help get more comfortable in the system and playing at an NFL level, and it will more than likely be Johnson. Johnson is the clear WR1 on the Steelers and has the potential to be a consistent WR1 going forward. Whether it's Trubisky or Pickett starting, Diontae is getting an upgrade at QB and will be able to build off his career year. 

 

Final Thoughts

Godwin and Johnson are both talented receivers who can be high-end WR2 / low-end WR1 going forward. Godwin does have the advantage that he has the GOAT throwing to him for the short term, but when Tom retires the Bucs will have a huge hole at QB, and a rookie QB may not be able to feed both Godwin AND Evans. Diontae is the undisputed WR1 on the Steelers right now and even with Trubisky or Pickett he should be peppered with targets like usual and be a huge value, especially in PPR leagues.

 

Winner: Diontae Johnson 

Dynasty Dilemma: Chris Godwin 

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Dynasty Dilemmas - Chris Godwin 

By Tim Lazenby

 

A lot is changing for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading into the 2022 NFL Season.  None bigger than the retirement of legendary Tom Brady, but there are many impending free agents, such as Leonard Fournette and the focus today, Chris Godwin.

 

The Reason to Sell

No one can deny how good Chris Godwin is.  Despite being part of a three headed receiving monster for the Buccaneers, his numbers showed better.  And even with all his success, people are wondering what to do with this phenom from Penn State.

 

Impending free agency

There are many question marks surrounding Godwin and one of them is his status as a free agent.  The problem is wondering where he’ll play next season is big enough, but more than that, who’s throwing the ball?  Even if he resigns, the person under center in Tampa Bay is in flux.  Will it be Kyle Trask, Blaine Gabbert or one of the coveted names like Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson?  Only time will tell and that makes people nervous.  Uncertainty causes even the most iron willed to shudder.

 

The big injury

Science today is incredible.  The recovery time from massive injuries isn’t what it used to be, even ten years ago.  Players who wouldn’t play until the next season are sometimes back on the field part way through it.  But some are more severe than others.  Chris Godwin’s injury timetable puts him at six to nine months, but that’s only an estimate.  Do we really want to invest such a price on someone who may not be ready?

 

 

The Reason to Buy

I’m going to make a statement.  Chris Godwin may be the most underrated receiver in the NFL, when it comes to top talent.  He doesn’t receive the praise that many of his peers do who are at similar talent levels.  Here are some reasons to snag him.

 

Price point

If it weren’t for the question marks mentioned earlier, there is no doubt in my mind he wouldn’t be so cheap.  I’ve seen him go as low as the eighth round in start up dynasty drafts and next to no trades for him in established ones.  It’s simply baffling to see the value so low for what he can do.  And the lack of trade movement is equally shocking.

 

Established Talent

Consistency is the name of the game.  Although he’s probably not going to be the WR1 in any format, he is a solid choice for a WR2, flirting for top status.  With the exception of his rookie season, he averages out at 14 points per game in PPR formats.  Now that Antonio Brown is gone, you can only imagine how much more successful he’ll be.

 

Verdict

In case you aren’t aware of his value, last season, he finished as WR17 in PPR, despite missing four games.  On a points per game basis, that ties him with underrated Diontae Johnson.  Here is a list of key players that finished lower:  Stefon Diggs, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, Jaylen Waddle, AJ Brown and CeeDee Lamb.  All of whom are routinely above Godwin in dynasty rankings.

 

He’s only 25 years old, playing in a red hot offense, and now with less players to take his targets.  Proven consistency and a chance to head up to the next tier of greatness makes this a simple decision.  He’ll never be this cheap again and it’d be foolish to ignore the value.  Make the right decision and don’t look back.

 

Buccaneers Breakdown: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

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Buccaneers Breakdown: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

By Darren Smith

Let’s be honest, the Buccaneers were not on everyone’s short list to win Super Bowl LV, yet Tom Brady still finds a way. The Bucs had an up and down offensive year, but ended up 7th in total offense in the NFL in 2020. Bruce Arians stayed true to his pass heavy attack posting the 2nd most total passing yards in the league with 4626, falling just short of Kansas City.  As usual, the run game struggled with only 1519 total rushing yards - 28th in the NFL. With free agency upon us, there are going to be a lot of moving parts on the Bucs offense which means big implications for Dynasty managers. Here’s a breakdown of each position to help you decide what Tampa Bay skill positions you should Buy, Sell, or Hold.

QUARTERBACKS

Tom Brady - Buy/Hold

Tom Brady is coming back for his 22nd season in the NFL on the last year of his contract with Tampa Bay. The 43 year old finished as QB7 in 2020 and continued his elite numbers with over 4600 passing yards and 40 TDs. There’s not much talk in Dynasty leagues about Brady due to his age, but the value is still there. If you own Tom, you might as well keep him for the 2021 season as you will only return some scraps in a trade. If you are desperate for a QB and have a shot at the championship, go out and buy Tom for a small price as a nice filler for a future QB.

RUNNING BACKS

Leonard Fournette - Hold

Fournette finished as the RB 35 in the 2020 season - but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Leonard missed four games due to injury, and had a split role with Ronald Jones - playing about 50-60% of snaps in the majority of games. When he was active, Fournette still showed explosiveness and a continued ability to break tackles down the field. Even with his limited playing time, he still managed to catch 37 passes out of the backfield giving him some value in PPR leagues. Playoff Lenny made a big splash in the postseason this year showing that he deserved to be on a Super Bowl winning team, but is on the last year of his contract with the Bucs and is now a UFA. Expect him to move on from Tampa Bay and to sign to a new team by the beginning of next season. At 26 years old, he can still be a big fantasy impact on an RB needy organization. Fournette is a firm hold in Dynasty, or a buy if you’re feeling risky.

Ronald Jones - Sell

Let’s start by saying it’s hard to be a RoJo fan. He’s not much of a pass catcher, low utilization in the Red Zone, and has some fumbling issues making him a thorn in Bruce Arians' side. But Jones actually had a good 2020 season. Finishing as the RB20 in PPR leagues, Ronald posted nearly 1,000 rushing yards and 7 TDs. There were some moments however that left a sour taste in the mouths of the managers that started him in Weeks 8 & 9 for example. Rushing only 10 total times over 2 games, Jones scored an average of 3.5 points over these weeks. When RoJo makes a mistake, Arians pulls him and holds that grudge for the remainder of the game. This wild inconsistency makes managers lose confidence in starting him week to week, and don’t expect this to change in the near future. Capitalize on Ronald’s 2020 season and sell him in your Dynasty leagues.

Who would you rather own? Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones? Fantasy Twitter picks RoJo:

Ronald Jones: 65%

Leonard Fournette: 27%

Keyshawn Vaughn: 8%

Honorable Mentions: 

Keyshawn Vaughn - Hold

WIDE RECEIVERS

Mike Evans - Buy

Mike Evans came off of a stellar 2020 year grabbing the WR11 spot in PPR. Evans to me has always been an underrated elite WR. He averages as the WR12 in the 7 years he has completed in the NFL, and has never had a season below 1000 receiving yards. 2020 brought on one of his best seasons to date with 13 TDs and 1006 yards on 70 receptions. Evans has remained healthy throughout his career showing durability and consistency. Look for Evans to continue at this elite level for a minimum of 4-5 more years, no matter the next QB throwing to him. Signed up through 2023 with the Bucs, he remains in the pass heavy Arians offense. Trade that first round rookie pick and avoid the lottery pick by buying Mike Evans in Dynasty leagues. His current trade value is much lower than the value he brings to your team.

Chris Godwin - Sell

Chris Godwin finished as the WR31 PPR in 2020, but also dealt with injury early on in the season. Injury risk aside, he was consistent when he was on the field, posting an average of 15.6 fantasy points per game from Week 9 on. The Godwin vs Evans debate is an intriguing conversation: 68% of Twitter voters would rather have Chris Godwin on their dynasty teams, as Godwin is the younger player. Believe it or not, Godwin is only 2 years younger than Evans (25 vs 27), so there isn’t much of an age gap as people may think.Godwin is also a UFA this season. Chris has publicly addressed that he is willing to play on the franchise tag to stay in Tampa Bay, but this means only one guaranteed season on one of the most pass heavy teams in the NFL. Pending on the organization's decision, Godwin could end up in a much less favorable situation than he’s in now. The Bucs clearly aren’t ready to blow the bag on a big time contract. The talent is there for Chris, but it’s not certain that his situation is going to get any better than staying in Tampa Bay. Sell Godwin at his peak value now - especially if you can acquire Evans plus some rookie draft picks.

Who would you rather own? Chris Godwin or Mike Evans? Fantasy Twitter picks Godwin:

Chris Godwin: 68%

Mike Evans: 31%

Antonio Brown: 1%

Honorable Mentions: 

Antonio Brown - Hold

Scott Miller - Buy 

Tyler Johnson - Buy

TIGHT ENDS

Rob Gronkowski - Hold/Buy

Gronk was a pleasant surprise in the 2020 season. No one knew what to expect with Gronk returning to the NFL with the greatest QB of all time, but it went just about as well as it could. The 31 year old was TE10 on the year posting 623 yards and 7 TDs. Gronk is still thinking about his future in the NFL, but if he decides to return in 2021, it will be for the Buccaneers. If he’s on your Dynasty team, he’s worth a stash next year as a Red Zone threat, especially in 2 TE leagues. With the tight end market so scarce, Rob may even be worth sending out an offer, as you can get him for dirt cheap. Hold if you have him, and possibly send a late 3rd/early 4th round rookie pick to buy if you’re feeling a little adventurous. 

OJ Howard - Buy

 

In the event that Gronk doesn’t return, OJ Howard may be worth taking a look at in Dynasty leagues. At only 26 years old, Howard hits free agency with a comeback on his mind. Injured for the majority of 2020, OJ only played 4 games. However, he showed flashes of his true self early on in the season, scoring 2 touchdowns and averaging 10.7 fantasy points per game. Most managers forget about him in Dynasty, so throw out a cheap offer for him in deeper TE leagues and see what comes back. A fresh start for OJ Howard could mean big value to come if he lands a starting role, making him a buy.

Who would you rather own? Rob Gronkowski or OJ Howard? Fantasy Twitter picks Howard:

OJ Howard: 61%

Rob Gronkowski: 30%

Cameron Brate: 9%

Honorable Mentions: Cameron Brate - Hold

 

Follow me on Twitter @FFBirdGang and comment your thoughts.

It’s In The Cards

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It’s In The Cards

By Matt Kelley

The Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, L.A. Rams, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all had a  common thread when it came to fantasy WR production last season. Do you know what it was?  They all sustained two top 24 fantasy wide receivers. Five teams accomplished this in 2018 as well. So what leads to the ability for these teams to produce multiple top-end fantasy wide receivers, and what new team has the chance to provide this fantasy value this season? Let's take a look...

Pass Volume:

Of the four teams above, three of them were in the top-5 of pass attempts in the NFL last season. The lone team not in there was Detroit who finished with the 16th most pass attempts per game (35.7); 4 attempts less per game than Tampa Bay (39.4). Matthew Stafford only started eight games for the Lions before falling victim to a back injury. Through eight games, Stafford averaged about 36.4 pass attempts per game. While Stafford wasn’t throwing at a considerably higher pace, it’s likely the Lions would have thrown more in general if not for having to turn to David Blough and Jeff Driskel.  

Targets: 

The breakdown of targets for the players inside the top-24 WRs on these teams is as follows:

Atlanta Falcons: 

Calvin Ridley: 93 targets, 17.7% target share, 63 receptions

Julio Jones: 157 targets, 25.7% target share,99 receptions

Detroit Lions: 

Kenny Golladay: 116 targets, 21.1% target share, 65 receptions

Marvin Jones: 91 targets, 20.2% target share, 62 receptions

Los Angeles Rams: 

Cooper Kupp: 135 targets, 21.8% target share, 94 receptions

Robert Woods: 139 targets, 23.4% target share, 90 receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 

Chris Godwin: 121 targets, 22.2% target share, 86 receptions

Mike Evans: 118 targets, 23.8% target share, 67 receptions

The team most unlikely to repeat in this group based on targets is Detroit. While both players are seeing a great target %, the low receptions mean they’ll need to make up for reception totals in half and full PPR settings in an effort to repeat. Additionally, Davante Adams, Odell Beckham Jr, and Tyreek Hill all finished outside of the top-24 last season, largely due to injury. There’s a strong chance those WRs find their way back inside the top-24, provided they have healthy seasons. Second year WRs D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown, and Terry McLaurin are all also threats to bolster their way into the conversation. 

Defense:

The more points a defense allows, the more an offense has to go back onto the field. Pretty simple. So for fantasy purposes, give us some bad defenses, some negative game scripts, and let those passes fly. All four teams mentioned above were in the bottom half of the league in points given up. While Tampa’s defense could improve as it’s unlikely Tom Brady throws for 30 interceptions...a la Jameis Winston, the efficiency should skyrocket and there will be enough NFC South shootouts to keep both Evans and Godwin well fed. 

What team can find their way into this list for 2020?

Arizona Cardinals: 

                   

The Arizona Cardinals acquired Pro Bowl WR DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. Hopkins has seen 150 targets in each of the last five seasons. Yes, this is a different offense, however Arizona let up the 28th most points in the league, and they’ll need to throw to get back into games. While the Cardinals only threw the 18th most pass attempts in the league last season, 2nd year QB Kyler Murray should take a step forward in terms of taking less sacks, being more efficient, and seeing offensive drives continue, thus pass attempts will go up. 3rd year WR Christian Kirk fits the bill to join Hopkins as a top-24 WR. Kirk saw 108 targets for a 24.5% target share last season. With the addition of Hopkins, he’ll no longer need to operate as the team's WR1. While he may lose part of that target share % with Hopkins being a target hog, there will be plenty of volume and more quality targets for Kirk as Hopkins will likely draw top coverage. Kirk had 11 redzone receptions last season, 9th most in the NFL. He’s already a trusted target for Murray in the most important part of the field and is a great candidate to see a positive bump in touchdowns. Kirk is a steal right now in drafts going as WR38 and pick 95 overall in PPR leagues. Look for the Cardinals duo to join the ranks of the best fantasy WR tandems in the league.

NFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Welcome to 2020 NFL team breakdown!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically...each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this, but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from your's truly. Throughout the team breakdowns, be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with the coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better...always!

Let’s reveal where the offensive cores fit, shall we?

BIG BUY:
Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona Cardinals, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BUY:

Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, and the Denver Broncos

NEUTRAL:

Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, New York Giants, New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, and the Minnesota Vikings

FADE:

Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, and The Washington Football Team.

We begin our team breakdown with the fantasy friendly NFC South…

Carolina Panthers

Overall this offense is an absolute BUY! The offense begins and ends with Christian McCaffrey, but there is a lot to like in the offensive skill position core.

QB ‪Teddy Bridgewater: high upside QB2, $1 in 14 team auction leagues, priority FA regarding starter injury/bye week. Teddy’s NFL journey has been a wild ride, he now finds himself on a Carolina Panthers team with a new head coach in defensive-minded Matt Rhule and a new offensive coordinator with aggressive and fast-pace play calling Joe Brady; formerly the OC of the 2019 National Champion LSU Tigers. Whoa baby!

‪RB Christian McCaffrey: THE RB1, 1.01, 35% auction budget. He is a cheat code and will remain at top of the draft board until proven otherwise.

WR DJ Moore: a PPR and YAC stud, WR1, 15-17% auction budget, Round 3 target, will be absolutely smashing his name if he falls to Round 4

‪WR Curtis Samuel: WR5, WR4 (if robust RB) upside depth stash, PPR league target, 1-2% auction budget, round 13

WR Robby Anderson: WR5, WR4 (if robust RB), unpredictable big play ability makes him most appealing in Best Ball leagues, 1-2% auction budget, round 14

TE Ian Thomas: TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside, $1 in deep auction leagues, priority FA regarding starter injury/bye week

Atlanta Falcons

This year the Falcons continue to be a consistent and fantasy friendly offense. They are in my upper echelon of offenses to target for all draft types. The Falcons offensive core fits into my BIG BUY category!

QB Matt Ryan: “Ladder Pick” QB1 has the best WR duo in the league and a new RB and TE target. I expect a lot of high scoring contests out of this team with Matt Ryan being the ultimate beneficiary. 4-6% of auction budget, round 6-7 target, he is QB worth reaching for even when conventional wisdom says to wait on QB.

RB Todd Gurley: High risk/high reward - RB2 is preferable, but would be happy with him as my RB1 if I were to go robust at WR or grab an elite TE in round 2. With a crowded backfield behind him, I would hold any of backups in Brian Hill or Ito Smith as priority FA adds. If Gurley is drafted as your RB1, I would make RB a big priority for rounds 5-9. 14-18% auction budget. Round 4 would be desirable.

WR Julio Jones:  WR1, 20-22% auction budget, round 2. He is a GO is all league formats, although I would be a bit more aggressive in best ball formats. Incredibly solid option, also highly productive and I hope that production shows up a bit more in the TD column.

WR Calvin Ridley: “Ladder Pick” - WR2 with WR1 upside. The perfect compliment to Julio Jones has been a producer each year and now he enters his 3rd season destined to breakout. Give me ALL of the Calvin Ridley shares!! 13-14% auction budget, round 4. You know the GIF of Winnie the Pooh sitting at the table with the pot of honey in front of him, his napkin tied around his neck, utensils in hand, eyes closed, smiling and dancing back and forth. Well, I’m Winnie the Pooh and Calvin Ridley is the honey.

TE Hayden Hurst: This TE1 is in a tier with Evan Engram, he will finally get his chance to shine in this juggernaut offense.

New Orleans Saints

The Sean Payton-Drew Brees brain-trust continues to be an entertaining and fantasy friendly offense. The Saints offensive core will remain a BUY!

QB Drew Brees:  QB1, 4% of auction budget, round 7-8 target, consistently productive surrounded by some of the game best weapons!

RB Alvin Kamara:  RB1, 28-30% of auction budget, round 1, PPR dream, just flat out good at the game

RB Latavius Murray:  RB3, this zero-RB draft strategy target serves as a great compliment to Alvin Kamara, if Kamara misses time Murray enters low RB1/high-RB2 territory. 5-7% of auction budget, round 9-10 target

WR Michael Thomas: The WR1, this PPR machine broke the NFL catches record last season with 144 catches. This is an average of 9 per game. 9 catches PER GAME!! I’m honestly happy if a WR gets around 9 *targets* a game. I see no sign of him slowing down. 28-30% auction budget, round 1

WR Emmanuel Sanders: One of my favorite players is now playing along side of Michael Thomas with Drew Brees throwing to him...you love to see it! WR3, 7-8% auction budget, round 9-10

TE Jared Cook: Low end TE1, 2-3% auction budget, round 9, I think any smart fantasy player would want pieces of the New Orleans offense - he may not seem like a “sexy” pick but what I think is “sexy” is opportunity in an elite offense. Also, do yourself a favor and remind yourself of what he did in the second half of the season last year.

TE Adam Trautman: A dynasty favorite, this extremely athletic rookie will be learning from a big play veteran in Jared Cook and will have the pleasure of playing Drew Brees for what he has left and possibly Jameis Winston in the future. BUY!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bruce Arians, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, OJ Howard, Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn...BIG BUY!!

QB Tom Brady: QB1, 3-4% auction budget, round 10. Brady enters into a smorgasbord of offensive weapons that I argue boasts the 2nd best WR and TE groups in the league and with a decent stable of RBs this team will feast. Brady will be the prime beneficiary of this offense!

RBs Ronald Jones: (RB3, 7-8% auction budget, round 7 if robust WR with elite TE strategy) and Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB4, 4-5% auction budget, round 10) are the only draftable RBs for 12 team drafts. LeSean McCoy and Dare Ogunbowale should be priority FA if Jones or Vaughn miss time. I want players in this offense so keep a close eye.

WRs Chris Godwin (WR1, 16-18% auction budget, round 2) and Mike Evans (WR1, 14-15% auction budget, round 3) are the most important pieces of this offense, they will help open up the running game as well as help the TE create mismatches. I love them both in all formats, I’d be willing to be aggressive to draft Mike Evans in best ball formats.

TEs Rob Gronkowski (low end TE1, 1-2% auction budget, round 9), OJ Howard (TE2 with upside to be TE1 group if Gronk were to miss time, $1 deep auction league stash, priority FA) and Cameron Brate (very late round target for best ball formats, priority FA in all other formats if Gronk/Howard were to miss time or as a bye week replacement).

I will generally be fading Gronk this year. I think the best and smart play is to target him late or for cheap in an auction draft with the hopes that he produces well enough early on to be used as a sell high candidate. I hope I am wrong on that because he is an awesome and fun player who I fear will be mainly touchdown dependent.

 

 

 

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