CeeDee Lamb

Dynasty League’s Closing Windows

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Dynasty League's Closing Windows

By Joel Wirth

Dynasty players are all about the long view, but player values are fluctuating on a week-to-week basis. Two weeks ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown was a divisive back-end WR2 (although, I seem to recall someone extolling his virtues a while back on this very site https://dynastyprosfootball.com/objects-in-the-rear-view-mirroramon-ra-st-brown/), now he’s trading for no less than a 2023 1st plus a productive player. Paying market rate for a player today can be a clear win next week if that player’s value takes off in-between. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few players who you may want to look into trading for now before their value goes up and their trade window closes.

The Youngsters

Treylon Burks/Chris Olave

Dynasty veterans know the rule of thumb with rookie receivers is let them struggle early, then trade for them right before they learn the speed of the game, get in sync with their QB, and they start producing fantasy points. Garrett Wilson has shown us that sometimes happens sooner than we expect, even if they’re not Ja’Marr Chase-level talents. Burks and Olave could be the next two in line for feature roles. Tennessee looks like a flat out bad team and Derrick Henry looking like he’s running through molasses should lead to more passing volume and more garbage time than we’re used to with this team. Olave’s advanced metrics show a star in the making. Jameis Winston’s hideous early season inefficiency is the only thing holding him back right now. Neither of these two are exactly cheap, they still have most of their rookie draft shine, but like Wilson, they’re one elite game away from being highly coveted assets.

CeeDee Lamb/Kyle Pitts

Going into the season, Lamb and Pitts were two of the most valuable dynasty properties you could have; young, supremely talented, in great situations, and in Pitts’ case, playing an exceptionally scarce position. Real or perceived, their early season struggles have made them available for costs that would have been unthinkable on Labor Day. In one of my leagues, Pitts was traded for Darren Waller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. That offer would have been laughed at and insta-rejected not that long ago. At this point, it really can’t hurt to ask and see if they’re available at all. These two are Burks & Olave on steroids. One good game and they go back to being nigh-untouchable.

Travis Etienne

During best ball draft season, Etienne was the RB hotness. Two weeks into the season, James Robinson is unexpectedly back and Etienne is being benched in fantasy. That sound you hear is BUY LOW sirens going off. Much like Cam Akers, Robinson coming back from an Achilles injury so soon is a great story, but he’s been very inefficient, averaging less than 4 YPC. His value is being entirely propped up by touchdowns and Etienne’s high profile sure-touchdown drop on 4th down in the opener. Once those normalize, Etienne will go back to being the RB to own in Jacksonville, which will be a good thing, because…

Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville is like Old Faithful right now. You can feel the rumbling under your feet, you know the explosion is coming, you just don’t know when. Once the geyser blows, TLaw will jump up to and potentially surpass Joe Burrow status in superflex. He’s still the elite, generational prospect we saw in college and expected on Draft Day ‘21. Urban Meyer wrecked his rookie season, but even through that haze you can still see the Andrew Luck upside. If there are still doubters, relieve them of their burden.

Elijah Moore

Yes, Garrett Wilson is this week’s WR hotness, but don’t forget about Moore. He’s no less talented because he has another talented teammate in the WR room. Zach Wilson is due back imminently and we know he has more time together with Moore than Wilson. Plus, if (Zach) Wilson can live up to his draft pedigree, there will be plenty of room at the table in this offense for both to eat.

The Seasoned Vets

De’Andre Hopkins

This is simple math. After Week 3, he’ll be half way through his suspension and his managers will take an “I’ve held this long, why should I sell now” attitude, and deservedly so. If the DHop manager in your league is off to a slow start, now is the perfect time to go after him.

Travis Kelce

A 5/50/0 line in a prime time game is as bad as Kelce’s ever going to look, and for a Tight End, it’s still really not bad at all. You probably have until exactly 1:00 PM EDT Sunday to get him at the most modest of discounts. Be sure to mention how positively elderly Kelce is looking in your proposal.

Chris Godwin

The hamstring injury is legitimately the best thing that could have happened to him, forcing the Bucs to give his reconstructed knee additional time to heal. Like DHop, if his manager is off to a slow start and you can afford the downtime, see what it would take to get Godwin onto your roster.

D.J. Moore

He’s the same guy he’s always been. Carolina’s offense has unsurprisingly struggled coming together early, despite the expectations of default QB improvement. If Moore is the victim of over-inflated pre-season expectations, get him now before the Panthers pull it together.

Diontae Johnson

Speaking of guys who are what they’ve always been… You’ll likely have to wait until next week to make this deal go down since he played Thursday, but he has double digit targets in every game so far. The Steelers now have a “mini-bye” to self-scout and figure out how to start scoring touchdowns. Coming back against the Jets won’t hurt that effort, but it may tank your chances of trading for Diontae at value once he goes off.

Donovan Peoples-Jones

We end with a low cost/no cost long term stash. The window isn’t closing on this one so much as slowly shimmying down the sill. DPJ’s deep threat talents are a terrible match for Jacoby Brissett’s game-manager arm. Once Deshaun Watson’s suspension is over, look for him to get DPJ involved in the offense in ways he currently cannot be.

Pick Your Poison

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Pick Your Poison

CeeDee Lamb/Travis Etienne or D’Andre Swift/Deebo Samuel

By Tim Lazenby

 

Every once in a while a question really grabs you. In the fantasy football realm there are many common questions like, “Should I draft this guy?” or “Who’s your top sleeper?” but none are more compelling than asking do you go with Player A or Player B. To further weigh down the simplicity of the question, asking for Package A or Package B can be quite interesting. There are a plethora of considerations to mull over when making these decisions and this becomes even more difficult to ascertain when dynasty comes into play.

Daydreaming about the 2022-23 NFL fantasy season is the norm for me and perusing Twitter appeases this longing to some degree. In my swiping I came across a dandy question from fellow fantasy football enthusiast, @LosingSucks and he posed a question to chew on:

Pick your combo: 0.5 PPR

CD Lamb + Etienne
Swift + Deebo

Feel free to go to his Twitter page and answer for yourself, but if you do, I’m hoping the results will be just as split for you as they were for me when I answered. With 74 votes in, I chose the leading side which was only ahead at a ratio of 53% to 47%. I, like many of you, find myself staring at lopsided results when I entertain these questions, but I was pleasantly surprised to see the results so divided. After all, it was a hard one for me to decide.

So, just for fun, here are some of the criteria going through my schmuck brain when choosing the proverbial A or B:

 

Age

This poll features four young guns, but unlike the other three, who happen to all be 23 years old, Deebo Samuel is past the midway point of his twenties. At 26 years old, Deebo certainly isn’t old or even close to it, but it’s a factor that has to be considered. So although it’s not a deal breaker, first points go to CeeDee Lamb and Travis Etienne.

 

Current Dynasty Rank Value

Now this one is not an exact science, but in this circumstance, it becomes easier as the positions on either side of the packages are the same. Personally, here are my ranks at their given positions:

CeeDee Lamb - WR3 Deebo Samuel - WR5
Travis Etienne - RB17 D’Andre Swift - RB3

I’m just one guy, but from where I sit Etienne is the odd man out here. And even though all four are studs on their respective teams, Etienne just doesn’t carry the same weight as the other three involved, leaving the edge going to Deebo Samuel and D’Andre Swift.

 

Injury Concern

With these four guys, injuries have been a big problem thus far. Of the foursome, CeeDee Lamb is the only one who hasn’t struggled to stay on the field. And although you have to give some props to the Deebo/Swift side because Etienne hasn’t even been on the field due to the lisfranc injury in his rookie season, I give Etienne the benefit of the doubt that this could be a one time problem until proven otherwise. The constant lagging issues on the side of Deebo and Swift are too concerning to not side with CeeDee and Etienne.

Team Importance

We all know that these four players are essential to their respective teams’ success. All four players are top featured options in each offense, but it is important to note that the recent additions to Detroit’s offense will make it harder for Swift to shine like before. Not to say Swift is plunging down my ranks, but I don’t see him as bright and shiny as I did before. Although it’s a close one, I give the edge to CeeDee and Etienne.

 

Gut Feeling

When it comes to fantasy football, your gut feeling has to be considered. For some, this is the only reaction to go by, but oftentimes, this becomes the tie breaker for me. For this particular scenario, if you asked me for my gut reaction, I would have chosen Deebo and Swift as my winners, but after going through my criteria, the gut feeling isn’t enough. This is one of the closest ones I’ve seen yet, at least for me, but I’m going with the CeeDee Lamb and Travis Etienne side. It’s ok to not trust your gut sometimes.

If any of you want to be featured in an article like this, feel free to hit me up on twitter. DM me @NFLazenby and I’d love to weigh in on it!

Dynasty Dilemma: CeeDee Lamb

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Dynasty Dilemmas: CeeDee Lamb

By Tim Lazenby

 

In dynasty football, it is important to not only look at talent, but at shelf life as well.  Aside from the quarterback, the wide receiver has the longest average playing career of the skilled positions.  Although the running back, tight end and quarterback positions are pretty much a single player dominated position on a team, wide receiver is the one that offers the greatest variety to choose from.  It is completely unheard of to run less than two receivers in the NFL, but oftentimes, teams will run three and even four receiver sets.  But with so many to choose from, finding the ones at the top is paramount.  CeeDee Lamb, especially in dynasty, is one such player.  But how near the top is he?

The Reason to Sell

It’s true that CeeDee Lamb ticks many of the boxes in not only a real life talent at his position, but also in fantasy football.  You have to wonder, however, if he’s worth the price the community has tagged him with.  One of the most expensive wide receivers in fantasy circles, is his price point worth the investment required to see him on your squad?  The talent is there, but is he worth shelling out the big bucks to roster?

Inconsistency

CeeDee Lamb came on the scene two seasons ago and took the league by storm.  Despite playing behind Amari Cooper, he quickly earned the trust of coach and quarterback alike.  Even as the number two in Dallas, he finished 24th in targets.  And as a 21 year old, was second among rookies; behind only Justin Jefferson.  But, the underlying receiving numbers can be quite deceptive, even if we look at last season.

Although he was the 23rd most targeted wide receiver in the National Football League in 2021, his catch rate landed him 45th at his position and 118th among all players.  In fantasy, there are no points for targets in almost any format, so despite so much attention, the points gathered by managers were much more minimal than they had hoped for.  Catching less than two thirds of the balls thrown your way just doesn’t cut it when you are a premier wide receiver and the top option for many teams.

Add to that the fact that he did not score a touchdown his first seven games last season, and only two touchdowns in his first ten, the situation was truly maddening in 2021.  It also infuriated managers to see CeeDee Lamb have less than five catches in half of the games played.  And while he did improve his rate as the year went on, the weeks lost before then cost many managers a chance at playoff contention.  The points come fantasy playoff time are the most important, but you have to get there first.  The inconsistency from CeeDee Lamb is not something that it easily ignored.

 

Ball Control

There are a few players in the NFL who are hindered with ball control issues.  Some are more notable than others, but surprising to many, CeeDee Lamb is one of these players.  The consistency mentioned earlier is truly troubling, but what he did after he was able to catch the ball is almost more concerning.

In his freshman season, CeeDee Lamb committed eight drops.  This was slightly concerning, but as a rookie, it can happen.  Much to the dismay of Lamb owners, this number improved zero percent, as CeeDee had eight drops again in the same amount of games.  Again, in fantasy it only matters what you do once you catch it, and eight drops in back to back seasons has to raise eyebrows; only not in the way you want.

It’s also very alarming to know that when he was targeted, CeeDee Lamb was partially responsible for interceptions.  Of all the interceptions that Dak Prescott threw last season, 60% of them were committed when Lamb was the target.  While we can’t blame the entirety of the situation on CeeDee, he’s at least partly to blame.  And while it wouldn’t have hurt your team if you didn’t own Prescott, it’s just another instance where CeeDee Lamb was missing key points to help your fantasy team succeed last season.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

As mentioned before, there are plenty of wide receivers in the National Football League, but not many that can lead your team to the championship.  In many ways, CeeDee Lamb is every bit what you look for in a true fantasy alpha.  The target share is there; the age is great and he has the quarterback.  Dak Prescott is one who is great in his own right and he’s also not going anywhere.  Can we really afford to miss out on this phenom out of Oklahoma?  And as I write this, Lamb is still only 22 years old.

 

Deceptive Improvement

While many saw last season as somewhat of a disappointment, if you look at the numbers, CeeDee Lamb improved on virtually every obvious statistic.  More importantly, the numbers for the other two top receivers for the Cowboys, in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup greatly regressed.  The Dallas Cowboys organization, from management to personnel, has clearly shown faith and trust in the 17th overall pick.

From his rookie season to last year, CeeDee Lamb’s targets, receptions, receiving touchdowns and yards per target all increased.  While many managers were not as pleased with his improvement as they had hoped, it is undeniable that improvement was there.  Add to that Dak Prescott has improved in many ways since Lamb came to the team, and it’s all looking up.  It’s also important to mention that the Cowboys’ work on the ground has taken a hit as of late.  So the receiving game in Dallas is all that more important moving forward; with Lamb as priority.

Lastly, as his ball control hasn’t been great, some underlying metrics have improved; many of them being key ones you look for.  In 2021, CeeDee Lamb increased his yards after catch by 42%.  This is even more impressive when you consider he was used even more on first downs, when teams expect the pass that much more.  And while it’s true he had the same amount of drops as he did the year before, his drop rate improved.  Perhaps most impressive is that he amazingly broke four times the amount of tackles last year than he did in his rookie season, leading to zero fumbles.

 

Potential Increased Usage

The fact on most people’s minds to buy, I’m certain, is the change coming to the receivers in Dallas.  While free agent Michael Gallup is certainly to be re-signed, I don’t think the Cowboys will want to lose free agent Dalton Schultz either.  If either leaves, the doors open for CeeDee, but even more importantly, I don’t believe there is even a slight chance the team keeps Amari Cooper.  The impending cutting of Cooper is virtually completely due to the insane contract signed in 2020.  Jerry Jones and company can save $20 million in dead money on the cap if they cut him loose now.  Even more absurdly, they can save $38 million dollars more over the next two years.

With the exodus of Cooper, based on last season alone, this frees up his 104 targets to other receivers in Dallas.  If we do a little math, based on what CeeDee did with his targets last season, the results could be very good for Lamb owners.  With no improvement to his game, if Lamb only got 25% of Cooper’s targets thrown his way and added only two extra touchdowns, he’d have an extra 44 points in PPR formats.  While that may not seem amazing, this is accounting for no improvement from what he did last season.  I truly believe he’ll improve moving forward and certainly gather a greater share than just 25% of the vacated targets from last season.

 

Verdict

This is one of the most truly perplexing dilemmas I’ve considered this season.  Had you asked me at the beginning of the off season, the solution was much more simple.  Due to the reasons to sell that I mentioned earlier, the decision to buy as a non-owner would have been obvious.  I could have made a great argument to sell as well.  Lamb was still being viewed as highly as the third best option at wide receiver in dynasty for many.  Where we sit in the off season now, however, isn’t so simple.

My rankings have been adjusted most greatly due to the impending release of Amari Cooper.  In recent memory, I can only think of one player who regressed once taking over as the de facto number one, in JuJu Smith-Schuster.  I had CeeDee Lamb, in my personal ranks at number 7.  Now, with this recent development, only LSU teammates Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are more appealing to me.

The true dilemma is that if I were a Lamb owner, there is no reasonable price that would deem him to be sold.  On the flip side, as much as I’d want him, as a non-owner, I could not in good conscience buy him at his current market share.  As helpful as it is not, the answer is nothing other than to keep him.  Unless the clouds have opened and the price has shifted dramatically in your favor, you have to grit your teeth and stay put.

5 Players to Buy in Dynasty

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5 Players to Buy in Dynasty

by Bob Miller

 

It’s officially the Fantasy Football offseason, but for those of us that play in Dynasty leagues, now is the time to start making deals to upgrade our teams. Today I’m going to give you five players I’m actively looking to acquire this offseason. 

 

 

JK Dobbins

When I think of JK Dobbins’ potential, I get excited. Dobbins showed everyone in 2020 that he was arguably the best RB in that draft. Obviously Jonathan Taylor would beg to differ. Anyhow, Dobbins was poised to take a big step forward last season, but he unfortunately tore his ACL in a preseason game. No worries, Dobbins is right on track to return to training camp. I expect big things from him and this Ravens rushing attack, but some fantasy owners are still worried about 3 things: Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and the below average offensive line. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens are focused on upgrading their offensive line this offseason, and they run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. Don’t forget, he averaged 6.0 yards per carry in 2020, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens were throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increased his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. Grab him now at an RB2 price, because he will be an RB1 for the next few years.

 

Cam Akers

This one is a little tricky. I don't believe you can get Akers at a big discount, but I believe you can get him now quite a bit cheaper than a year from now. Trading for Akers is going to take some skill, because those owners who have held onto him are now looking forward to using him this coming season. Don't let that discourage you from trying. When I picture Cam Akers potential all I see is Todd Gurley. Gurley was a touchdown machine and an absolute fantasy stud in Sean McVay’s offense. I see that same potential for Cam Akers over the next few seasons to come. Trade for him now if you still can.

 

Lamar Jackson

 Lamar Jackson is the perfect example, and I mean perfect example of a buy low candidate. Jackson was a mid QB1 at best last season. He also missed the last 4 games of the season. Keep in mind that Baltimore was missing their starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley, running backs JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, and Nick Boyle, the best blocking TE in the league. Like I said previously, Baltimore is extremely focused on upgrading their offensive line this offseason. Combine that with those players returning from injury, Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown, Rashad Bateman, and we may have another MVP performance from Lamar in 2022. Go get him.

 

CeeDee Lamb

Lamb finished as WR15 in PPR leagues last season. For a top 5 ranked WR in dynasty, that was quite a disappointment to say the least. He really faded down the stretch as well. That didn’t help either, but I have good news. Michael Gallup is expected to leave via free agency and Amari Cooper is rumored to be a cap casualty this offseason. That’s a lot of targets potentially leaving. If those things happen then Dallas has no choice but to throw it Lamb’s way often. Aside from injury, I see no way that CeeDee Lamb doesn’t finish as a top 10 WR this upcoming season. If you can get him at a discount, I say go for it.

 

Saquon Barkley

Someone in your dynasty league is terribly frustrated with Saquon Barkley. That’s what I like to see. I have been trading for Barkley at a discount wherever I can. We all know what he is capable of, and that Giants offense should be quite different with Brian Daboll coaching. I know Barkley has had some injuries, but personally I do not see Saquon as an injury prone player, just someone with a little bit of bad luck lately. I don’t have to sell you on Barkley, we all know what he’s capable of. I’m just here to tell you that I have no problem trading for him. Better days are ahead of Saquon. If you can get him at a discount, make it happen.