CeeDee Lamb

Dynasty League’s Closing Windows

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Dynasty League's Closing Windows

By Joel Wirth

Dynasty players are all about the long view, but player values are fluctuating on a week-to-week basis. Two weeks ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown was a divisive back-end WR2 (although, I seem to recall someone extolling his virtues a while back on this very site https://dynastyprosfootball.com/objects-in-the-rear-view-mirroramon-ra-st-brown/), now he’s trading for no less than a 2023 1st plus a productive player. Paying market rate for a player today can be a clear win next week if that player’s value takes off in-between. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few players who you may want to look into trading for now before their value goes up and their trade window closes.

The Youngsters

Treylon Burks/Chris Olave

Dynasty veterans know the rule of thumb with rookie receivers is let them struggle early, then trade for them right before they learn the speed of the game, get in sync with their QB, and they start producing fantasy points. Garrett Wilson has shown us that sometimes happens sooner than we expect, even if they’re not Ja’Marr Chase-level talents. Burks and Olave could be the next two in line for feature roles. Tennessee looks like a flat out bad team and Derrick Henry looking like he’s running through molasses should lead to more passing volume and more garbage time than we’re used to with this team. Olave’s advanced metrics show a star in the making. Jameis Winston’s hideous early season inefficiency is the only thing holding him back right now. Neither of these two are exactly cheap, they still have most of their rookie draft shine, but like Wilson, they’re one elite game away from being highly coveted assets.

CeeDee Lamb/Kyle Pitts

Going into the season, Lamb and Pitts were two of the most valuable dynasty properties you could have; young, supremely talented, in great situations, and in Pitts’ case, playing an exceptionally scarce position. Real or perceived, their early season struggles have made them available for costs that would have been unthinkable on Labor Day. In one of my leagues, Pitts was traded for Darren Waller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. That offer would have been laughed at and insta-rejected not that long ago. At this point, it really can’t hurt to ask and see if they’re available at all. These two are Burks & Olave on steroids. One good game and they go back to being nigh-untouchable.

Travis Etienne

During best ball draft season, Etienne was the RB hotness. Two weeks into the season, James Robinson is unexpectedly back and Etienne is being benched in fantasy. That sound you hear is BUY LOW sirens going off. Much like Cam Akers, Robinson coming back from an Achilles injury so soon is a great story, but he’s been very inefficient, averaging less than 4 YPC. His value is being entirely propped up by touchdowns and Etienne’s high profile sure-touchdown drop on 4th down in the opener. Once those normalize, Etienne will go back to being the RB to own in Jacksonville, which will be a good thing, because…

Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville is like Old Faithful right now. You can feel the rumbling under your feet, you know the explosion is coming, you just don’t know when. Once the geyser blows, TLaw will jump up to and potentially surpass Joe Burrow status in superflex. He’s still the elite, generational prospect we saw in college and expected on Draft Day ‘21. Urban Meyer wrecked his rookie season, but even through that haze you can still see the Andrew Luck upside. If there are still doubters, relieve them of their burden.

Elijah Moore

Yes, Garrett Wilson is this week’s WR hotness, but don’t forget about Moore. He’s no less talented because he has another talented teammate in the WR room. Zach Wilson is due back imminently and we know he has more time together with Moore than Wilson. Plus, if (Zach) Wilson can live up to his draft pedigree, there will be plenty of room at the table in this offense for both to eat.

The Seasoned Vets

De’Andre Hopkins

This is simple math. After Week 3, he’ll be half way through his suspension and his managers will take an “I’ve held this long, why should I sell now” attitude, and deservedly so. If the DHop manager in your league is off to a slow start, now is the perfect time to go after him.

Travis Kelce

A 5/50/0 line in a prime time game is as bad as Kelce’s ever going to look, and for a Tight End, it’s still really not bad at all. You probably have until exactly 1:00 PM EDT Sunday to get him at the most modest of discounts. Be sure to mention how positively elderly Kelce is looking in your proposal.

Chris Godwin

The hamstring injury is legitimately the best thing that could have happened to him, forcing the Bucs to give his reconstructed knee additional time to heal. Like DHop, if his manager is off to a slow start and you can afford the downtime, see what it would take to get Godwin onto your roster.

D.J. Moore

He’s the same guy he’s always been. Carolina’s offense has unsurprisingly struggled coming together early, despite the expectations of default QB improvement. If Moore is the victim of over-inflated pre-season expectations, get him now before the Panthers pull it together.

Diontae Johnson

Speaking of guys who are what they’ve always been… You’ll likely have to wait until next week to make this deal go down since he played Thursday, but he has double digit targets in every game so far. The Steelers now have a “mini-bye” to self-scout and figure out how to start scoring touchdowns. Coming back against the Jets won’t hurt that effort, but it may tank your chances of trading for Diontae at value once he goes off.

Donovan Peoples-Jones

We end with a low cost/no cost long term stash. The window isn’t closing on this one so much as slowly shimmying down the sill. DPJ’s deep threat talents are a terrible match for Jacoby Brissett’s game-manager arm. Once Deshaun Watson’s suspension is over, look for him to get DPJ involved in the offense in ways he currently cannot be.

Pick Your Poison

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Pick Your Poison

CeeDee Lamb/Travis Etienne or D’Andre Swift/Deebo Samuel

By Tim Lazenby

 

Every once in a while a question really grabs you. In the fantasy football realm there are many common questions like, “Should I draft this guy?” or “Who’s your top sleeper?” but none are more compelling than asking do you go with Player A or Player B. To further weigh down the simplicity of the question, asking for Package A or Package B can be quite interesting. There are a plethora of considerations to mull over when making these decisions and this becomes even more difficult to ascertain when dynasty comes into play.

Daydreaming about the 2022-23 NFL fantasy season is the norm for me and perusing Twitter appeases this longing to some degree. In my swiping I came across a dandy question from fellow fantasy football enthusiast, @LosingSucks and he posed a question to chew on:

Pick your combo: 0.5 PPR

CD Lamb + Etienne
Swift + Deebo

Feel free to go to his Twitter page and answer for yourself, but if you do, I’m hoping the results will be just as split for you as they were for me when I answered. With 74 votes in, I chose the leading side which was only ahead at a ratio of 53% to 47%. I, like many of you, find myself staring at lopsided results when I entertain these questions, but I was pleasantly surprised to see the results so divided. After all, it was a hard one for me to decide.

So, just for fun, here are some of the criteria going through my schmuck brain when choosing the proverbial A or B:

 

Age

This poll features four young guns, but unlike the other three, who happen to all be 23 years old, Deebo Samuel is past the midway point of his twenties. At 26 years old, Deebo certainly isn’t old or even close to it, but it’s a factor that has to be considered. So although it’s not a deal breaker, first points go to CeeDee Lamb and Travis Etienne.

 

Current Dynasty Rank Value

Now this one is not an exact science, but in this circumstance, it becomes easier as the positions on either side of the packages are the same. Personally, here are my ranks at their given positions:

CeeDee Lamb - WR3 Deebo Samuel - WR5
Travis Etienne - RB17 D’Andre Swift - RB3

I’m just one guy, but from where I sit Etienne is the odd man out here. And even though all four are studs on their respective teams, Etienne just doesn’t carry the same weight as the other three involved, leaving the edge going to Deebo Samuel and D’Andre Swift.

 

Injury Concern

With these four guys, injuries have been a big problem thus far. Of the foursome, CeeDee Lamb is the only one who hasn’t struggled to stay on the field. And although you have to give some props to the Deebo/Swift side because Etienne hasn’t even been on the field due to the lisfranc injury in his rookie season, I give Etienne the benefit of the doubt that this could be a one time problem until proven otherwise. The constant lagging issues on the side of Deebo and Swift are too concerning to not side with CeeDee and Etienne.

Team Importance

We all know that these four players are essential to their respective teams’ success. All four players are top featured options in each offense, but it is important to note that the recent additions to Detroit’s offense will make it harder for Swift to shine like before. Not to say Swift is plunging down my ranks, but I don’t see him as bright and shiny as I did before. Although it’s a close one, I give the edge to CeeDee and Etienne.

 

Gut Feeling

When it comes to fantasy football, your gut feeling has to be considered. For some, this is the only reaction to go by, but oftentimes, this becomes the tie breaker for me. For this particular scenario, if you asked me for my gut reaction, I would have chosen Deebo and Swift as my winners, but after going through my criteria, the gut feeling isn’t enough. This is one of the closest ones I’ve seen yet, at least for me, but I’m going with the CeeDee Lamb and Travis Etienne side. It’s ok to not trust your gut sometimes.

If any of you want to be featured in an article like this, feel free to hit me up on twitter. DM me @NFLazenby and I’d love to weigh in on it!

Dynasty Dilemma: CeeDee Lamb

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Dynasty Dilemmas: CeeDee Lamb

By Tim Lazenby

 

In dynasty football, it is important to not only look at talent, but at shelf life as well.  Aside from the quarterback, the wide receiver has the longest average playing career of the skilled positions.  Although the running back, tight end and quarterback positions are pretty much a single player dominated position on a team, wide receiver is the one that offers the greatest variety to choose from.  It is completely unheard of to run less than two receivers in the NFL, but oftentimes, teams will run three and even four receiver sets.  But with so many to choose from, finding the ones at the top is paramount.  CeeDee Lamb, especially in dynasty, is one such player.  But how near the top is he?

The Reason to Sell

It’s true that CeeDee Lamb ticks many of the boxes in not only a real life talent at his position, but also in fantasy football.  You have to wonder, however, if he’s worth the price the community has tagged him with.  One of the most expensive wide receivers in fantasy circles, is his price point worth the investment required to see him on your squad?  The talent is there, but is he worth shelling out the big bucks to roster?

Inconsistency

CeeDee Lamb came on the scene two seasons ago and took the league by storm.  Despite playing behind Amari Cooper, he quickly earned the trust of coach and quarterback alike.  Even as the number two in Dallas, he finished 24th in targets.  And as a 21 year old, was second among rookies; behind only Justin Jefferson.  But, the underlying receiving numbers can be quite deceptive, even if we look at last season.

Although he was the 23rd most targeted wide receiver in the National Football League in 2021, his catch rate landed him 45th at his position and 118th among all players.  In fantasy, there are no points for targets in almost any format, so despite so much attention, the points gathered by managers were much more minimal than they had hoped for.  Catching less than two thirds of the balls thrown your way just doesn’t cut it when you are a premier wide receiver and the top option for many teams.

Add to that the fact that he did not score a touchdown his first seven games last season, and only two touchdowns in his first ten, the situation was truly maddening in 2021.  It also infuriated managers to see CeeDee Lamb have less than five catches in half of the games played.  And while he did improve his rate as the year went on, the weeks lost before then cost many managers a chance at playoff contention.  The points come fantasy playoff time are the most important, but you have to get there first.  The inconsistency from CeeDee Lamb is not something that it easily ignored.

 

Ball Control

There are a few players in the NFL who are hindered with ball control issues.  Some are more notable than others, but surprising to many, CeeDee Lamb is one of these players.  The consistency mentioned earlier is truly troubling, but what he did after he was able to catch the ball is almost more concerning.

In his freshman season, CeeDee Lamb committed eight drops.  This was slightly concerning, but as a rookie, it can happen.  Much to the dismay of Lamb owners, this number improved zero percent, as CeeDee had eight drops again in the same amount of games.  Again, in fantasy it only matters what you do once you catch it, and eight drops in back to back seasons has to raise eyebrows; only not in the way you want.

It’s also very alarming to know that when he was targeted, CeeDee Lamb was partially responsible for interceptions.  Of all the interceptions that Dak Prescott threw last season, 60% of them were committed when Lamb was the target.  While we can’t blame the entirety of the situation on CeeDee, he’s at least partly to blame.  And while it wouldn’t have hurt your team if you didn’t own Prescott, it’s just another instance where CeeDee Lamb was missing key points to help your fantasy team succeed last season.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

As mentioned before, there are plenty of wide receivers in the National Football League, but not many that can lead your team to the championship.  In many ways, CeeDee Lamb is every bit what you look for in a true fantasy alpha.  The target share is there; the age is great and he has the quarterback.  Dak Prescott is one who is great in his own right and he’s also not going anywhere.  Can we really afford to miss out on this phenom out of Oklahoma?  And as I write this, Lamb is still only 22 years old.

 

Deceptive Improvement

While many saw last season as somewhat of a disappointment, if you look at the numbers, CeeDee Lamb improved on virtually every obvious statistic.  More importantly, the numbers for the other two top receivers for the Cowboys, in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup greatly regressed.  The Dallas Cowboys organization, from management to personnel, has clearly shown faith and trust in the 17th overall pick.

From his rookie season to last year, CeeDee Lamb’s targets, receptions, receiving touchdowns and yards per target all increased.  While many managers were not as pleased with his improvement as they had hoped, it is undeniable that improvement was there.  Add to that Dak Prescott has improved in many ways since Lamb came to the team, and it’s all looking up.  It’s also important to mention that the Cowboys’ work on the ground has taken a hit as of late.  So the receiving game in Dallas is all that more important moving forward; with Lamb as priority.

Lastly, as his ball control hasn’t been great, some underlying metrics have improved; many of them being key ones you look for.  In 2021, CeeDee Lamb increased his yards after catch by 42%.  This is even more impressive when you consider he was used even more on first downs, when teams expect the pass that much more.  And while it’s true he had the same amount of drops as he did the year before, his drop rate improved.  Perhaps most impressive is that he amazingly broke four times the amount of tackles last year than he did in his rookie season, leading to zero fumbles.

 

Potential Increased Usage

The fact on most people’s minds to buy, I’m certain, is the change coming to the receivers in Dallas.  While free agent Michael Gallup is certainly to be re-signed, I don’t think the Cowboys will want to lose free agent Dalton Schultz either.  If either leaves, the doors open for CeeDee, but even more importantly, I don’t believe there is even a slight chance the team keeps Amari Cooper.  The impending cutting of Cooper is virtually completely due to the insane contract signed in 2020.  Jerry Jones and company can save $20 million in dead money on the cap if they cut him loose now.  Even more absurdly, they can save $38 million dollars more over the next two years.

With the exodus of Cooper, based on last season alone, this frees up his 104 targets to other receivers in Dallas.  If we do a little math, based on what CeeDee did with his targets last season, the results could be very good for Lamb owners.  With no improvement to his game, if Lamb only got 25% of Cooper’s targets thrown his way and added only two extra touchdowns, he’d have an extra 44 points in PPR formats.  While that may not seem amazing, this is accounting for no improvement from what he did last season.  I truly believe he’ll improve moving forward and certainly gather a greater share than just 25% of the vacated targets from last season.

 

Verdict

This is one of the most truly perplexing dilemmas I’ve considered this season.  Had you asked me at the beginning of the off season, the solution was much more simple.  Due to the reasons to sell that I mentioned earlier, the decision to buy as a non-owner would have been obvious.  I could have made a great argument to sell as well.  Lamb was still being viewed as highly as the third best option at wide receiver in dynasty for many.  Where we sit in the off season now, however, isn’t so simple.

My rankings have been adjusted most greatly due to the impending release of Amari Cooper.  In recent memory, I can only think of one player who regressed once taking over as the de facto number one, in JuJu Smith-Schuster.  I had CeeDee Lamb, in my personal ranks at number 7.  Now, with this recent development, only LSU teammates Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are more appealing to me.

The true dilemma is that if I were a Lamb owner, there is no reasonable price that would deem him to be sold.  On the flip side, as much as I’d want him, as a non-owner, I could not in good conscience buy him at his current market share.  As helpful as it is not, the answer is nothing other than to keep him.  Unless the clouds have opened and the price has shifted dramatically in your favor, you have to grit your teeth and stay put.

5 Players to Buy in Dynasty

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5 Players to Buy in Dynasty

by Bob Miller

 

It’s officially the Fantasy Football offseason, but for those of us that play in Dynasty leagues, now is the time to start making deals to upgrade our teams. Today I’m going to give you five players I’m actively looking to acquire this offseason. 

 

 

JK Dobbins

When I think of JK Dobbins’ potential, I get excited. Dobbins showed everyone in 2020 that he was arguably the best RB in that draft. Obviously Jonathan Taylor would beg to differ. Anyhow, Dobbins was poised to take a big step forward last season, but he unfortunately tore his ACL in a preseason game. No worries, Dobbins is right on track to return to training camp. I expect big things from him and this Ravens rushing attack, but some fantasy owners are still worried about 3 things: Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and the below average offensive line. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens are focused on upgrading their offensive line this offseason, and they run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. Don’t forget, he averaged 6.0 yards per carry in 2020, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens were throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increased his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. Grab him now at an RB2 price, because he will be an RB1 for the next few years.

 

Cam Akers

This one is a little tricky. I don't believe you can get Akers at a big discount, but I believe you can get him now quite a bit cheaper than a year from now. Trading for Akers is going to take some skill, because those owners who have held onto him are now looking forward to using him this coming season. Don't let that discourage you from trying. When I picture Cam Akers potential all I see is Todd Gurley. Gurley was a touchdown machine and an absolute fantasy stud in Sean McVay’s offense. I see that same potential for Cam Akers over the next few seasons to come. Trade for him now if you still can.

 

Lamar Jackson

 Lamar Jackson is the perfect example, and I mean perfect example of a buy low candidate. Jackson was a mid QB1 at best last season. He also missed the last 4 games of the season. Keep in mind that Baltimore was missing their starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley, running backs JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, and Nick Boyle, the best blocking TE in the league. Like I said previously, Baltimore is extremely focused on upgrading their offensive line this offseason. Combine that with those players returning from injury, Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown, Rashad Bateman, and we may have another MVP performance from Lamar in 2022. Go get him.

 

CeeDee Lamb

Lamb finished as WR15 in PPR leagues last season. For a top 5 ranked WR in dynasty, that was quite a disappointment to say the least. He really faded down the stretch as well. That didn’t help either, but I have good news. Michael Gallup is expected to leave via free agency and Amari Cooper is rumored to be a cap casualty this offseason. That’s a lot of targets potentially leaving. If those things happen then Dallas has no choice but to throw it Lamb’s way often. Aside from injury, I see no way that CeeDee Lamb doesn’t finish as a top 10 WR this upcoming season. If you can get him at a discount, I say go for it.

 

Saquon Barkley

Someone in your dynasty league is terribly frustrated with Saquon Barkley. That’s what I like to see. I have been trading for Barkley at a discount wherever I can. We all know what he is capable of, and that Giants offense should be quite different with Brian Daboll coaching. I know Barkley has had some injuries, but personally I do not see Saquon as an injury prone player, just someone with a little bit of bad luck lately. I don’t have to sell you on Barkley, we all know what he’s capable of. I’m just here to tell you that I have no problem trading for him. Better days are ahead of Saquon. If you can get him at a discount, make it happen.

 

Dallas Cowboys 2021 Post NFL Draft Fantasy Outlook

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Dallas Cowboys 2021 Post NFL Draft Fantasy Outlook

By Tommy Harvey

2020 was supposed to be the year the Dallas Cowboys became Super Bowl contenders.  Gone was long-time head coach Jason Garrett, replaced by Super Bowl winning coach Mike McCarthy.  The Cowboys were primed to step back into the spotlight.  However, the season was an absolute disaster. Dak Prescott suffered a gruesome, season-ending ankle injury. The offensive line was constantly injured and inconsistent. Ezekiel Elliott had the worst season of his career. The defense was terrible, which led to the firing of first year defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. Possibly the worst thing for the Cowboys, was they won 3 of their final 4 games to finish 6-10. Their season ending victory over the Eagles hurt the most. 

2021 Draft Review

Heading into the final 4 games of the season, Dallas was looking at a likely top-5 draft pick. The late season victories dropped them into the 10th pick, which they eventually traded down to 12th to select LB Micah Parsons out of Penn State. The selections of CB Jaycee Horn and CB Patrick Surtain II (both a major need) directly before the 10th pick, seemingly led to the move down to 12. During the draft, the Cowboys made defense a major priority, using 8 of their 11 picks to reinforce Dan Quinn's unit. 

Highlighted by the selection of LB Micah Parsons, the Cowboys continued to fortify the defense by selecting CB Kelvin Joseph, DT Osa Odighizuwa, and LB Jabril Cox.  Offensively, Dallas picked up two linemen and WR Semi Fehoko out of Stanford.  Fehoko is a height, weight, speed guy, who could eventually work his way into the Cedrick Wilson role.

Quarterback

Dak Prescott

Going into the 2021 season, Dak Prescott is ready to return and is also $240 million richer. He signed a 6-year contract to return and is looking to pick up where he left off prior to his injury. Dak was on pace for a record-breaking season in 2020, averaging over 371 ypg. 

Obviously, circumstances dictated the amount of passing the Cowboys did. If the offensive line is healthier and plays better and if the defense doesn't put the offense in must pass positions, Dak shouldn't have to throw the ball as much. Regardless, Prescott should be considered a top-5 redraft and dynasty QB. 

2021 Early Projections:

438-640, 68%, 5,270 yards, 37 TDs, 11 INTs, 61 carries, 311 yards, 5 TDs

 

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott

There is really no other way to say it...Ezekiel Elliott had an abysmal 2020 season. He had career lows in yards (979), yards per game (65.3) yards per carry (4.0), TDs (6), and yards per reception (6.5). Last season was so bad, he ended up with less yards in 15 games played than he did in 2017 with 10 games played (6 game suspension).

The questions...Did he have a regression in skill? Did he suffer from bad offensive line play? Was he forced to see defenses that didn't respect the threat of the pass due to Dak Prescott's injury?

Whatever the answers are, Zeke needs to have a bounce back season for Dallas to contend in the NFC East.

2021 Early Projections:

298 carries, 1,281 yards, 4.3ypc, 9 TDs, 74 Targets, 58 receptions, 417 yards, 7.2ypc, 2 TDs

 

Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard is a talented backup RB. If Zeke were to ever miss any time, Pollard would definitely be a must own in fantasy leagues. 

2021 Early Projections:

100 carries, 460 yards, 4.6ypc, 3 TDs, 38 Targets, 25 receptions, 173 yards, 6.9ypc, 1 TD

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Amari Cooper

Amari Cooper is the leader of this very good and very young group of pass catchers for the Cowboys. Heading into his 7th NFL season, Cooper will still only be 27 years old. Often considered too inconsistent to be a true #1 WR, he has only had one season where he failed to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark (2017). A target monster, Cooper has seen 249 targets in his 2 full seasons in Dallas. 

Last season, Cooper amassed 92 receptions, 1,114 yards, and 5 TDs with backup QBs throwing him the ball. If Dak Prescott is fully healthy, Cooper could have a career year for the Cowboys. I would feel extremely comfortable having him as a high-end WR2 in all fantasy formats.

Early 2021 Projections:

133 Targets, 95 Receptions, 1,197 Yards, 12.6ypc, 8 TDs

 

CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb had a very solid rookie season, even without the benefit of playing with Dak Prescott for the final 11 games of the season. In his first season, Lamb was a HUGE part of the Dallas offense. He saw 111 targets, catching 74 for 935 yards and 5 TDs.  Lamb finished 2nd among all rookie WRs in receptions and yards.

Showing the obvious ability to be a top-end receiver in the NFL, look for Lamb to continue to develop into a big time target for Dak Prescott.  He has the potential to overtake Cooper as the Cowboys’ #1 WR by season’s end.  Both have high-end WR2 ability, with Lamb having WR1 upside.

Early 2021 Projections:

124 Targets, 82 Receptions, 1,074 Yards, 13.1ypc, 8 TDs

 

Michael Gallup

Michael Gallup has consecutive seasons of 100+ targets in Dallas.  Not many teams can support three WRs with over 100 targets apiece, but the Cowboys have proven able to do so.  All three Cowboys WRs are similar in what they can do, so they are all somewhat interchangeable.  With Gallup having the ability to be a free agent after the 2021 season, he will be looking to have a big season so he can cash in.  

In 2020, Michael Gallup caught 59 of 105 targets for 843 yards and 5 TDs.  His conversion rate wasn’t as high as Cooper’s or Lamb’s, partly due to being more of the deep ball and 50/50 threat.  I would imagine his 2021 would be similar to his 2020.

Early 2021 Projections:

109 Targets, 66 Receptions, 937 Yards, 14.2ypc, 7 TDs

 

Blake Jarwin/ Dalton Schultz

Blake Jarwin was one of my favorite sleeper picks last season.  I picked him to finish as a top-5 TE in 2020.  Then he tore his ACL in the first game of the season after only recording 1 catch.  Football can be a cruel game.  Jarwin was set up to be “the man” at TE after future Hall of Famer Jason Witten left for Las Vegas.  I still have extremely high hopes for the former Oklahoma State Cowboy, but he will likely share targets with fellow TE Dalton Schultz. High-end TE2 to low-end TE1 production is possible, so target him accordingly.

Schultz filled in admirably for the injured Blake Jarwin last season, recording 63 receptions on 89 targets for 615 yards and 4 TDs.  Obviously, the return of Jarwin will significantly cut into Schultz’ production, but he will still be involved.  He is probably best suited as a best ball pickup, but he could return some value as a streaming option in redraft and dynasty leagues.

Early 2021 Projections:

Jarwin - 74 Targets, 58 Receptions, 586 Yards, 10.1ypc, 5 TDs

Schulz - 52 Targets, 37 Receptions, 352 Yards, 9.5ypc, 4 TDs

 

NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We are onto our 2nd division now! We will be covering the NFC East but first here are some reminders about what my breakdowns are all about:

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys enter this season as a mouthwatering offense building off of an impressive 2019 campaign. Dallas falls into the BIG BUY category!

QB Dak Prescott: “Ladder Pick”, QB1, 6-7% auction budget, round 5. Dak will be the primary beneficiary of the gargantuan offense surrounding him. The best trio of WRs the NFL has to offer, a TE on the rise, one of the best RBs, *checks notes* oh, and Dak has immense rushing upside! Sheesh!

RB Ezekiel Elliott: RB1, 30-32% auction budget, round 1, this stud do it all 3 down back is poised to have a monster season!

RB Tony Pollard: RB 4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, this zeroRB favorite is the only competition in town behind Zeke. If Zeke were to miss time, Pollard enters high RB2 range.

WR Amari Cooper: WR1, 16-17% auction budget, round 3, the leader of the WR pack is primed for another big year even with Gallup rising and the future star CeeDee Lamb in town, I see him leading the team in targets. Having Cooper as a Best Ball target I would bring some caution to prepare for a little bit of rollercoaster ride week to week but overall he should be feasting.

WR Michael Gallup: ideal WR3 but WR2 if robust RB strategy, 5-6% auction budget, round 7-8, productive player will draw the lesser DB matchup week to week but with this offense being such a nightmare to defend I see Gallup in plus matchups week to week

WR CeeDee Lamb: WR4, 2-3% auction budget, round 11-12, what felt like a luxury pick for Dallas was actually a brilliant selection in Lamb. He can play everywhere, he’s dynamic, will contribute to opening up the offense. I hate to gush so much but there is just so much to love about this group!

TE Blake Jarwin: TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside, $1 auction stash, round 13, as the clear passing catching TE option I can see him being a chain mover and massive problem in the red zone. Picture this: goal to go…defense has line stacked anticipating Zeke run…play-action…TD Jarwin *chef’s kiss*

Philadelphia Eagles

With Carson Wentz leading the way, the Eagles offense is a BUY this season!

QB Carson Wentz: QB1, 3-4% auction budget/round 9-10, the offensive core remains intact with rookie WR additions; Wentz continues to be an under-appreciated QB for fantasy as well as in real life. He’s got a big arm, rushing upside, and the incoming rookie all have one thing in common: Speed!

RB Miles Sanders: RB1, 19-21% auction budget, late round 1/early round 2, he flashed as a rookie with impressive athleticism and pass catching ability, he will look to improve in all facets of the game especially without Jordan Howard around.

RB Boston Scott: RB5, $1 deep auction stash, end of bench RB/priority FA in shallow leagues. Since the Eagles are an offense I want pieces of, keep a close eye on Scott since he has shown that he is able to produce is this offense when given the opportunity.

WR Jalen Reagor: WR4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, versatility and speed makes him an extremely exciting prospect!

WRs DeSean Jackson (WR5, 1-2% auction budget, round 12-13) and Alshon Jeffrey (priority FA in deep leagues, purely because he is starting the year on the PUP list) are seasoned vets and have proven to be difference makers when healthy. Were Best Ball leagues made for DeSean Jackson or was DeSean Jackson made for Best Ball leagues? All I know is that Best Ball league championship trophies were named after DeSean Jackson.

TE Zach Ertz: “Ladder Pick” TE1, 9-11% auction budget, round 4 (it he lasts to round 5- I am smashing his name!), Ertz has the ability to lead the Eagles in targets, catches, and TDs. Having the speed of Reagor and Jackson will only further open things up for Ertz. He will continue to be a favorite target for chain moving and in the red zone!

TE Dallas Goedert: high TE2, 2-3% auction budget, round 13/14, a great selection if your strategy to “wait on TE” gets out of hand. He has shown to be productive even when sharing the field with Ertz, if Ertz were to miss time he instantly becomes a mid range TE1!

The Washington Football Team

I’m generally considering this offense a FADE, however I believe any player in any offense is worth keeping an eye on especially in an uncertain year such as this.

QB Dwayne Haskins: low end QB2 is a FA to watch, outside of dynasty and super flex leagues he is undraftable. We want sure things and upside in our draft. Worth keeping an eye on as a streaming option as he looks to further develop as a pro QB in a division where shoot-outs are likely week to week. The good news is he has nowhere to go but up, hopefully. Remember, he is only two years removed from setting Ohio State University records for single-season passing yards and single-season touchdowns. If your starting QBs’ bye week lands on the same week that Washington plays a division rival, that may just be a good opportunity to consider Haskins.

RB Adrian Peterson: RB4, 1-2% auction budget, round 13, Peterson (much like Frank Gore) isn’t going away. He still may have some juice left, but if Washington is frequently playing from behind (which I would think is likely) than I’m not sure how the new and improved coaching staff can justify having him on the field. I’m no NFL head coach though.

RB Antonio Gibson: RB4, 3-4% auction budget, round 9/10, for me he is the player to target in this crowded backfield. I think his skill set and inherent upside separates him from the pack. I believe he is the perfect type of RB to be used in those situations hwer Washington will be trailing in games, again which I think is likely to be often. I believe he has the ability to takeover this backfield eventually. Upside stash!

RB Bryce Love: end of bench RB5/6, I’m hoping to see the Bryce Love we saw in college, but have to see him on the field first. Border line undraftable with crowded backfield but certainly a worth a late round stash as depth bench piece, I see him more as a priority FA worth keeping a close eye on!

WR Terry McLaurin: WR2, 13-14% of auction budget, round 5, this QB proof stud looks to improve upon an already impressive rookie season. He is the bright light of an offense that has a lot to improve on with a new coaching staff.
Players to monitor: TE Logan Thomas,  WR Steven Sims and WR Antonio Gandy-Golden. I feel this is important to mention because I made the mistake of brushing off Terry McLaurin’s dominant week 1 performance against the Eagles.

My stupid brain (at the time): “Who cares? It’s Washington. Of course he lit up the Eagles, it just what WRs do to them”… BUT he went on to have a truly impressive season. Don’t repeat my mistake, I suggest you pounce if one of those guys breaks out. Steven Sims was a stud weeks 15-17. Keep an eye out.

New York Giants

The Giants are an offense I’m categorizing as NEUTRAL, this offensive core has plenty of room to grow with players that you should not shy away from nor with players worth “reaching” for considering their auction value/ADP.

QB Daniel Jones: high QB2 with sneaky QB1 upside due to his rushing ability. Good weapons surrounding him can help salvage his fantasy outlook if he struggles with turnovers, 2-3% auction budget, round 12/13

RB Saquon Barkley: RB1 (ranked RB2), 31-33% auction budget, early round 1 (chalk at 1.02), he’s does it all, he’s a stud, an exceptionally talented athlete! Quads for days!

WRs Sterling Shepard (WR4 3-4% auction budget, round 8/9), Golden Tate (WR4 2-3% auction budget, round 9/10), and Darius Slayton (WR4 2-3% auction budgets, round 9/10) make up a very nice trio of WRs for Daniel Jones. All great first guy on the bench options, very useful for injury/bye replacements with upside for more.

TE Evan Engram: TE1, 5-6% auction budget, round 7/8, as my TE6 he leads the middle tier of TEs (with Hayden Hurst and Hunter Henry), provides a lot of upside and will be a beneficiary of mismatches with the trio of WRs alongside of him.