Carolina Panthers

Dynasty Dilemma: Adam Thielen

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Dynasty Dilemma: Adam Thielen

By Jonathan Walker

 

Free agent receiver Adam Thielen has found a new home. Nine days after the Vikings released him, Thielen has agreed to terms with the Panthers. He announced the deal on Instagram just before the team did. The Panthers need to rebuild their receiving corps after trading DJ Moore to the Bears as part of the deal for the No. 1 overall pick. So where does this put Adam Thielen as far as fantasy football goes? I'm here to give you some things to consider when thinking about Thielen in your dynasty league.

 

 

For the last 3 season Adam has brought in north of 65 receptions, and over 700 yards and 6+ touchdowns every year. Now with him being in Carolina, will his numbers increase? If Carolina signs D.J Chark (which is still a FA), will Adam will go back to being nothing more than a flex play in fantasy? He may not produce the numbers to be a starting WR in fantasy, but he will score enough to be a solid flex player. Also with Carolina having the #1 overall pick, they will most likely bring in a rookie QB. Having a veteran like Thielen playing the slot position, it creates a nice safety blanket for a rookie who is trying to get use to playing in the NFL. Adam Thielen is a great red-zone threat due to his knowledge playing the slot position. As well as knowing where to find the open spot of the defense.

Reasons to buy Adam Thielen his buying price is very low, if you are in a draft he will most likely drop to the later rounds due to his age, and the amount of WR’s there are to draft. Thielen was ranked as the #66 WR last year. Another reason to buy is to fill your flex position. He will get his receptions and yards being a slot WR, and for a flex player that’s is all you are looking for. Who will get me points when I need them? Is the question most asked when looking for flex players.

Adam is your guy, if that is your question during the later rounds of the draft. He has been a great security blanket for his QB. Being able to read a defense and understand where the open spots are and knowing where to be to get the QB out of a bad spot. I feel that the biggest reason to buy Adam is due to the face that Carolina will most likely draft a rookie QB as stated before. Some rookies have a hard time adjusting to the NFL, players are a lot better than what they played in college. Defensives are smarter, and Offensives are hard to understand. Having a nice security blanket in Adam Thielen will help that Rookie QB get acclimated to the NFL.

 

 

If you have Adam should you trade him? Yes, because the ultimate question is do you want to win. If so Adam doesn’t have the production to win fantasy games, he has the production to loose you games. Adam is entering his 9th season in the NFL, so his age is of major concern. It is hard trying to keep up with the younger more fresh WR’s when you are 32 years old. Injuries start to sneak up on you, and you don’t recover as fast. Thielen has been pretty durable throughout his career, but this has to be considered.

Would you count on Adam Thielen as your weekly flex player? Maybe, but why would you draft Thielen for flex when you can draft another TE or RB (which are both deep positions in fantasy). IF you are starting a new startup do you draft Adam? No, there are other flex players that will produce more than Thielen that you can grab later in the draft. Then there is the biggest concern regarding the WR position in Carolina, what happens with DJ Chark? If Carolina signs DJ that means all the passing offense will primarily go through him, leaving Adam on the outside once again.

 

Am I buying or selling? That's the question. The only reason I'd pass on him is if I'm in a new startup dynasty. Otherwise, I'm buying Thielen. The bottom line is he can help you win each week. He can be a solid Flex that costs you pretty much nothing. I've seen him traded for a 3rd round rookie pick. I'd do that all day for a player who can contribute week 1. Thielen is low risk, and worth grabbing on the cheap.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Hayden Hurst

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Dynasty Dilemma: Hayden Hurst

By Cody Folden

 

Going into his 6th season, Hayden Hurst is the definition of a dynasty dilemma. Coming out of the draft in 2018 already at 25 years old, was a significant “con” coming out. I will argue that with his age he came into the league as a very good blocker and still is. With career stats of 177 receptions for 1,718 yards and 14 TDs, these numbers are not the best to look at from a fantasy perspective. 

Drafted by Baltimore in 2018, in the first round, everyone started buying into the notion that they got their starting tight end. Baltimore then drafted Mark Andrews in the same draft and it was apparent in training camp Mark Andrews was the receiving threat and Hayden Hurst was the blocking tight end. Out of his 70 career games, he has started 31. Injury has been a part of that, lasting only 2 seasons in Baltimore. He then got 2 years in the Atlanta Falcons organization,  expected in fantasy circles to make big strides because, again, he was the number 1 guy. Then, they draft Kyle Pitts. In his first season with Atlanta he started 9 out of 16 games and then 5 out of 13 in the next season, Pitts was a big reason for that. Hurst then signed a 1-year prove-it deal with Cincinnati where he put up 52 receptions 414 yards and 2 touchdowns. He now gets a 3-year deal with the Carolina Panthers who desperately need pass catchers. 

 

A huge reason to buy is his catch percentage in the last 2 years was 83.9% and 76.5%. He catches balls when they are thrown his way. With what looks like a rookie quarterback coming in and a backup in Andy Dalton. You need sure hands. He instantly becomes one of the best targets on the team and with the rumors of Adam Thielen also ending up there. You couldn't ask for two better veteran football players to come and be security blankets for a rookie QB. 

Hurst, like stated above, is a good blocker. The Carolina Panthers will probably be in the top 5 rushing offenses in the upcoming year and Hurst is going to make that prediction a reality. Miles Sanders, D’Onta Forman and Chuba Hubbard will need good blocking. With a good offensive line already, Hurst only builds into that narrative.

 

One of the significant reasons why you would sell Hurst in fantasy is impatience. If you are the manager that drafted him way back in 2018 and you still have him, this isn’t for you. Fantasy Football is obviously about getting results. He finally started all the games that he played, for the first time last year. Although, because of an injury, not a full season. 13 out of 13 is a good number but he has only been available for a full regular season schedule twice; his second year in the league (Baltimore) and his third year (Atlanta). In those 32 games, he also only started 13 of them. The inconsistency in games started and played over the entirety of his career is definitely a concern. 

 

Hayden Hurst in year 5 had his second-highest yards per game in his career with 31.8. I know for most, that is lackluster. We have to remember that the tight-end position in fantasy football is a barren wasteland. Sometimes you need multiple tight ends on your roster to make a good team stay just that. If you don’t have one of the top 4 tight ends in your league you will have probably 3 or 4 of these types of guys on your roster. With a new 3-year deal, he will be on the field and will be a great dump-off reception candidate for, at least, his age 30 and 31 seasons. If you can pick him up on waivers I would, if you don't have him, find out which manager does and gauge how impatient he is, and offer a late-round rookie pick to get consistency, if healthy. 

 

Dynasty Impact: Bears Trade 1.01 to Carolina

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Dynasty Impact: Bears Trade 1.01 to Carolina

By Johnathan Walker

 

Wow! The Chicago Bears have traded the 2023 #1 overall draft pick to the Carolina Panthers, who gave up an arm and a leg. Here's the full details:

 

What a haul for the Bears! With that being said, did the Bears just find their WR1 of the future? Maybe so.. DJ Moore is a young, very talented WR and has shown his talent in Carolina and he will give Justin Fields a suitable WR. Fields was able to showcase his running ability last year due to not having a WR1. Now with Chicago having a defined WR1, how will teams defend both the pass and Fields’ ability to run the ball? With north of $92 Million in cap space the Bears seem to be looking to make a deep playoff run this season. What moves will be made in free agency?

So what does this trade tell us about the Carolina Panthers? Do they believe they can find a new WR1 in free agency with approximately $23.5 Million in cap space? Carolina seems to be re-building the team around a rookie QB. 

CJ Stroud is now the frontrunner to be the #1 overall pick.  The former Buckeye QB has elite traits, but can he win without elite weapons around him?  At Ohio St, Stroud was surrounded with A1 WRs and RBs to go along with a very good OL.  Carolina currently has none of those.

Dynasty Dilemma: Baker Mayfield

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Dynasty Dilemma: Baker Mayfield

By Tommy Harvey

 

Baker has been freed!!!

Cleveland did Baker Mayfield dirty and you won't be able to convince me otherwise.  After telling him they weren't involved with Deshaun Watson, they then went and traded for Watson and gave him a MASSIVE contract.  Mayfield requested a trade and had not budged on that, even with the uncertainty around Watson's future.  After months of wondering what the Browns were going to do with Baker, they have finally dealt him to Carolina.

Baker stans rejoice!!!

 

Prior to 2021, Baker Mayfield was a good QB on a good team.  How many times has anybody ever been able to say that about the Cleveland Browns or one of their QBs? Now, Mayfield is coming off a pretty awful season, due to a shoulder injury to his non-throwing shoulder.  The torn labrum has since been repaired, but you will always worry if he will re-injure it at some point.  Can he make it back to his 2020 playing form?

 

Baker Mayfield is a good QB that has that special "IT" factor you would typically want from a franchise QB.  He may be on the smaller side, but the league has been moving more towards QBs of his stature in recent years.  He is now moving on from a rather pathetic Cleveland Browns franchise to another that has plenty of weapons for him to get comfortable with.

Christian McCaffrey is making his way back from consecutive seasons with an ankle injury.  If healthy, he is the best RB in the league.  DJ Moore, Terrace Marshall, and Robby Anderson are formidable group of WRs...and let's be honest...it will probably be the best group of WRs he has played with in the NFL.

Getting the Cleveland Browns stench off him will do him wonders.  His personality and like-ability will endear him to Panthers fans.  He now has a real shot at being a franchise QB with Carolina.

 

NFC South Predictions

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NFC South Predictions for 2022

By Tim Lazenby

The NFC South is a tale of uncertainty.  While the Buccaneers finally have Tom Brady back at the helm, there are questions for each team when it comes to the quarterback.  As we try to predict how 2022 will go for each team in the league, let’s see how things shake out for the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons

Record in 2021: 7-10-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 3-13-1

Strengths and Weaknesses

When considering the strength of the Falcons, you need look no further than first round pick Drake London and elite tight end Kyle Pitts.  This duo should be quite formidable for any opponent.  That being said, there are so many weaknesses and most of them have not even been addressed.  London and Pitts will have to strap the team on their backs for any hope whatsoever.

Situation to Watch

I can’t believe we’re living in a world where Matt Ryan is not the starting quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons.   In only three games since 2007, has anyone not named Matt Ryan started for Atlanta.  The team now turns to Marcus Mariota.  It will be fascinating to see how he does at the helm, as the Raiders have largely used him as a decoy to rush the ball.  Let’s also not forget that the Raiders just drafted Bearcats’ quarterback Desmond Ridder too.  Things just got interesting.

Conclusion

I completely forgot that this team was a 7 win team last season.  I just expected so much worse with how I view this squad.  The list of players to get excited about with this team is so much smaller than most teams and I don’t see them making much noise next season.  They are poised for a great draft pick in the loaded 2023 class.

Carolina Panthers

Record in 2021: 5-12-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 6-11-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

Matt Rhule is on his last legs as bench boss for the Panthers.  If he wants his best shot at proving the haters wrong, he has to find a way to use players like DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey, but not overuse them.  The two are the strength of the team, but defenses have figured out Rhule’s schemes very quickly.  He has to adapt and involve others in his usage in order to play meaningful games late in the season.

Situation to Watch

Just like with the Falcons, I’m super interested to see what will happen with the quarterback room in Carolina.  I’d find it exceptionally unlikely that Sam Darnold survives through 2022 in Carolina.  I just can’t wait for Matt Corral to finally get his shot and while you never know with rookies, I just have a feeling he’ll be worth a shot at commanding this team moving forward.

Conclusion

I just want to go on record and say that I don’t think Matt Rhule is a bad coach.  He’s turned underperformers into winners; just look at his time with Temple and Baylor.  That being said, unless he changes his play calling he’s not going to survive.   I worry that the Panthers will not get better under Rhule and that’s going to be the case in 2022.

New Orleans Saints

Record in 2021: 9-8-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 4-13-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

New Orleans’ receiver room was not great last season, but this year they will be light years better.  Michael Thomas will be back, Jarvis Landry has signed and Chris Olave has been drafted.  It’s hard not to be excited, but you should also be a little nervous as Thomas hasn’t caught the ball in over a year and a half and it’s from Jameis Winston instead of Drew Brees.

Situation to Watch

With a deep receiving room for the first time in a while, I’m curious to see how this will affect Alvin Kamara.  Although you want to use his otherworldly abilities over and over, he can finally be used for quality rather than quantity.  There are legal hurdles to overcome first, but this will be a situation to monitor when the time comes.

Conclusion

Like a few other teams before this one, I can’t believe how low ranked I have the Saints’ win total.  In my prediction, a five game losing streak in the middle of the season is going to derail them faster than anything.  But of all of the predictions for all of the teams, this is the one where I would bet against me.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record in 2021: 13-4-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 11-6-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

Tom Brady.  Tom Brady.  Tom Brady.  I’m not here to diminish the rest of the team because, make no mistake, they are among the best.  But if we’re being real with each other, I’m pretty sure he’s not human.  That being said, it all hinges on Brady.  This means that the team has no plan B and that can be a scary concept.

Situation to Watch

The offense for 2022 has taken a pretty big step back from 2021.  As of now, Gronkowski isn’t playing and although Cameron Brate is serviceable, it’s not the same.  Despite all his antics, Antonio Brown to Russel Gage is also a big leap.  Add to that the extended injury of Chris Godwin and it will be something to see in how Tom Brady uses these weapons on the current roster.

Conclusion

Until Tom Brady decides to retire for real, I can’t see the Buccaneers giving up their stranglehold on this division.  And until he retires I can’t see Tampa Bay as out of contention for the championship.  While I don’t see them with 13 wins in 2022, the 11 that they will get is plenty enough to go where they want.  It’s another year of Tom Brady slapping Father Time in the face for us all to watch.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

NFC South Best Values

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NFC South Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

Well, we’re well into the offseason and most of us are sitting around waiting for the rookie draft.  As we eagerly await the additions to our real life favorite teams, there is still work to be done for those of us entrenched in dynasty football formats.  Whether we’re drafting or making moves on our already established teams, savvy owners are always looking to wheel and deal for the best possible return on our investments.  Today we look at the best values in the NFC South.  Although this is looked at almost universally as the weakest division, there is always talent to be had.  And in good news, these teams offer nicer prices while the stock is down in such a poor division.

Atlanta Falcons: Quarterback - Marcus Mariota

What a weird time to be a Falcons fan.  Since almost tossing the Patriots to the curb in the Super Bowl just a few years ago, the situation has continued to spiral ever since that 2:08 remaining in the third quarter.  The team continued to crumble as they lost long time legend Julio Jones.  And now lifelong Falcon, Matt Ryan has packed his bags.  The situation is uncharted and now Marcus Mariota takes the helm in this desolate land.  With so few options to utilize his talents, is there a point in attempting to claim Mariota for your own?  I believe so.

Sure, Calvin Ridley is suspended and at this point Olamide Zaccheaus is arguably the top option.  And it is also true that 31 year old “wideback” Cordarrelle Patterson is leading this rushing attack.  Also, the offensive line and defense leave much to be desired, but that’s exactly why you need to move on Mariota.  He isn’t near one of the best options at the position in the NFL, but the price is fantastic.  With so little to turn to in Atlanta, Mariota will rely on his legs for any chance of success and in fantasy, that’s a key element to quarterback success probability.  It seems like he’s been in the league forever, but the former 2nd overall pick is still only 28, leaving the team plenty of time to build around him.  If he sticks around long term, this dirt cheap option among his position is well worth paying for.

Carolina Panthers: Running Back - Chuba Hubbard

It’s very strange in a way to put Chuba Hubbard on this list.  For the most part, his value is almost nothing as Christian McCaffrey is one of the most elite options at not only his position, but all of fantasy overall.  While McCaffrey is on the field, any other Carolina running back is obsolete.  But here’s the kicker: we all know McCaffrey is a constant injury risk.  Either through his usage or through his natural body, or possibly both, he’s shown in the NFL that he will always be an injury risk.  So, it does make sense to want Hubbard on your team, even if he is warming the bench.  But aside from that, there is even more reason to chomp at the bit for Chuba.

As I said before, Hubbard performed admirably in McCaffrey’s absence.  As the season wore on, he gained more and more confidence and his game showed it for fantasy managers.  But, I think we’re blind if we don’t see the possibility of value even with McCaffrey on the field.  Matt Rhule is on a short leash to be sure.  He simply has to adapt his strategy for long term life with the Panthers.  As much as you want McCaffrey on the field for every play, I think it’s time to limit his usage.  This would extend his life and with Chuba showing he can be leaned on in some capacity, this makes complete sense.  Invest in Chuba while he costs next to nothing even to sit and do nothing.

New Orleans Saints: Running Back - Alvin Kamara

Warning: I know there are about to be torches and pitchforks coming my way, so if you’re near me, take cover.  Why would I put Alvin Kamara on this list on dynasty discounts?  He is the most expensive player by a country mile in this set of articles.  And while I know I look crazy, there are valid reasons why he is the player of choice in New Orleans.  Grab a seat and let me list them and then, if you still disagree, you can come at me.

Firstly, the New Orleans Saints lack guaranteed talent, so any player I could choose is too much of a gamble.  I’d be tempted to put Michael Thomas here, but if we’re being honest, he won’t be near the man he was.  Jameis Winston is no slouch, but he’s also not in the same stratosphere as Drew Brees.  Alvin Kamara is also 26, so many managers will be looking to unload this “senior citizen” at the position.  But, more than anything, last year was not a success to many.  I believe he performed as well as he could with what happened last year, but it’s hard for many to overlook his “regression”.  If I can get him for anything less than his normal value, it’s a good buy.  I wrote a dynasty dilemma advising to hold, but it’s now time to buy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Quarterback - Kyle Trask

Oh Tom Brady… There are no words.  I can’t recall a time where there were so many emotions attached to a player in real life and fantasy alike in such a short amount of time as that of Brady.  The man retires while still under contract and managers panic.  Then, once the waters had settled, he unretired and caused even more panic as many managers picked him up for free.  For the quick clickers, many claimed Kyle Trask for next to nothing only to see his value plummet to zero.  But, going for Kyle Trask now is still very wise.  He’s also the best value for the Buccaneers right now.

While his value this season will amount to nothing, let’s not forget that Tom Brady will be 45 heading into next season.  And while Tom Brady is an anomaly when it comes to age, even the great TB12 will eventually age like normal people.  It’s only so long until another takes the helm in Tampa Bay.  There are some like me who believe in Kyle Trask, but many think that Tampa Bay will employ someone else as the starter once Brady actually retires.  You need to grab hold of Trask now that he amounts to almost nothing to many managers.  He may in fact not work out, but I want to secure an exit strategy and so should you.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby