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Cam Akers

Ageism in Fantasy Football

July 21, 2022 by Tim Lazenby

Ageism in Fantasy Football

By Tim Lazenby

 

Fantasy football is many things to many people. It can offer the greatest thrills you’ve felt and at the same time, it can utterly destroy your world. No matter what format you play, if you are a fantasy manager, savvy decisions are constantly being made in order to bring you all the way to the top. And to make matters more complicated, if you play dynasty, these decisions weigh more heavily. On top of considering a player’s skill level and if they fit the make of your team, age always comes into the minds of anyone running a team.

But how old is too old? This question has many different answers, especially when considering certain positions, but the question must be pondered all the same. I, like almost any other manager, am guilty of ageism in fantasy football. While I am a little more reasonable with the quarterback, or even wide receiver, the running back always seems to have a ticking clock attached to their name.

And while it’s normal and even wise to take age into consideration, there has to be a limit as to how much weight it brings to the equation. When do you take the lesser talent because the player is simply too old? I was reminded of this by two community members in a charity pool we’re in this season. Let’s see where you sit.

The conversation came up when discussing the King, Derrick Henry. At 28 years old, he can’t be trusted like he was even two seasons ago. And considering the injury he is coming back from, @ApolyonLC stated that he’d rather have a younger, albeit inexperienced option in Cam Akers. He put forth an argument that Henry’s value is too high and he’d rather have the much cheaper, yet still comparable option.

Well, this lit a fire under @NatedBeall who thought that notion was ludacris. While it’s true he’s certainly not as young as he once was, he’s still near the top of his game. Why would you want Cam Akers, who suffered a devastating injury of his own and is also unproven? Why not go with the guy who you know what he’s capable of? Push comes to shove, even though Henry is more expensive, there is a good reason for it.

And while I have an opinion of my own, obviously, I can definitely see both sides. The decision is way easier for me in redraft, but in dynasty, the waters are much more muddied. Let’s talk about why you should take Derrick Henry:

I feel like I have to state the obvious. Derrick Henry is not alone here. There is a laundry list of aging veterans who are being looked down upon simply because they are a year older than they were. But we’ve seen time and again where veterans can lead the pack. There are special players who laugh at their expiry date. I was the same guy who refused to draft Tom Brady for the last eight years because I was sure the cliff was looming, by the way.

But, even if Henry, or that other veteran you’re thinking of, isn’t the numero uno, it is a rarity to be among the upper echelon and fail to meet any version of expectations completely. There is a real danger that you pass on someone only to have them score 20 less points. And you take the younger option who isn’t even close to the other “too old” guy. I remember specifically passing on Adrian Peterson one year because I thought he was too old, only to have him destroy the league. Meanwhile, the “young stud” I took was near worthless at the time.

There’s also the mistake we make in dynasty of always planning for our future, but never considering our present. Why abandon a perfectly good “old” option so you can win in the next three seasons? Meanwhile, you never win a season because you have no established talent, but you’re super excited about your team in 2026…

Now I’d be selling you up the river if I let you believe there isn’t some logic in avoiding aging veterans over comparable youth. While I personally am not heavily invested in Cam Akers, I can see why people are. There are people who will lead you to believe the gamble is all on taking the youngster, but there are gambles on either side.

And, since we’re talking dynasty, building your future can’t be ignored. You simply have to sell high when the timer is ticking and buy low before the star explodes. There’s a reason why stock market experts are rich, after all. Those who were smart enough to gain any star player before their current worth are certainly rewarded. And when it comes to Derrick Henry specifically, there aren’t too many players his age who dominate at running back, let alone as the years press on.

So on this side of the argument, you’re essentially getting Derrick Henry or two really great pieces. And to most, two things sound better than one. So why hinge all your hopes on one older piece, who’s coming off an injury, when you can instead get a couple great pieces who will most likely last you much longer?

Many statistical studies have shown that running backs, on average, improve until the age of 27, and then they will begin to regress. And while there are unicorns, betting on a player to break the odds is not statistically probable. And for most of us with money and pride invested in our teams, it makes the most sense to go by the numbers and shift our team before it’s too late. It’s simply the smarter decision to move on from Derrick Henry now, at his age, and get comparable pieces for both your present and your future.

So, verdict time. Where do I sit on this proverbial wall? The decision for me is quite easy in redraft formats. Derrick Henry at his current ADP is worth more to me than Cam Akers and a good piece. But, to get to the meat and potatoes, in dynasty I swing the direction of Cam Akers and a piece. That is, unless there is no trading. In which case, I would rather gamble on Derrick Henry for a couple seasons than be stuck with Cam Akers, in whom I have no trust.

Lastly, to make this super spicy, there was a bet that was made:

Cam Akers finishes better than RB15 and Derrick Henry finishes worse than RB7.

This season, I predict that Cam Akers finishes below RB15 and Derrick Henry finishes above RB7, if he stays healthy that is.

I’d love to write more about what’s pressing for anyone. If some fantasy football thing is on your mind, I’d love to give you my thoughts and if you want to be mentioned in an article by me, let me know!

Tim Lazenby

Tim Lazenby joined Dynasty Pros, after writing for a few years elsewhere, and is passionate about all things fantasy football. Tim has been playing fantasy sports for over twenty years now and takes his love of the game to every article he writes.  Although he’s played a variety of fantasy football, he is especially in love with dynasty football.  If you ask him for advice, whether you’re just joining or you’ve been playing for years, he wants nothing more than to help you succeed, than to keep that fantasy gold to himself.  A lover of the game and ultimate competitor, Tim is just trying to spread the good news of fantasy football to all.

twitter.com/nflazenby

Filed Under: Offense Tagged With: Cam Akers, Derrick Henry

2022 League Winners

July 7, 2022 by Bob Miller

2022 League Winners

By Bob Miller

 

At the end of every fantasy season there seems to be a handful of players that come out of nowhere that overachieve to help someone win a fantasy football championship. Some of these players are drafted late and some are picked up off the waiver wire. 

 

We like to call these players “League Winners”. League Winners are players that drastically out-produce your investment in them or their draft position. Some examples from last season are breakout players like Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Joe Burrow. This could also be a player such as Cordarrelle Patterson who went undrafted last year. 

 

Over the last 10 years or so I have published my league winners article on various fantasy football websites. I have had some hits and misses, but definitely more hits than anything. Here is the list of my league winners for the 2022 season.

 

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Bob Miller
Bob Miller

Bob Miller founded Dynasty Pros in 2019 after spending several years writing and ranking for various websites. Bob has been playing fantasy football for over 25 years. He is very experienced in a variety of different formats including Dynasty, Redraft, IDP, & Best Ball. Bob is especially passionate about IDP, as he has developed the Dynasty Pros IDP Scoring System that is used by thousands of IDP Leagues today. His sole mission is to help everyone win their Fantasy League’s Championship.

www.DynastyProsFootball.com

Filed Under: Offense, Premium Content Tagged With: Allen Robinson, Cam Akers, Derek Carr, Devin Singletary, Gabriel Davis, Jalen Hurts, Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Saquon Barkley

Dynasty Death Match: Etienne vs Akers

May 9, 2022 by Tim Lazenby

Dynasty Death Match: Etienne vs Akers

By Tim Lazenby

 

In fantasy football, tough choices are part of the job of an everyday manager.  Oftentimes, we struggle with whom to draft, trade or even drop completely.  This is magnified when two players are so close in value.  Choosing between two players like that can ravage the brain and perhaps make or break your season.  In dynasty, it’s even worse than standard because choosing the wrong guy means you are stuck with the mistake for years and potentially losing out on the talent of the better man to win you multiple championships.

Today, let’s dive into a discussion about two young running backs who missed the chance to play for your squad last season.  In a head to head matchup for dynasty glory, only one can survive.  Will it be Los Angeles running back, Cam Akers or Jacksonville Jaguars running back, Travis Etienne?  As they both missed time and Etienne hasn’t had the chance to show what he can do at the professional level, we’re going to look at the college numbers.

Rushing and Receiving Numbers Comparison

Cam Akers Rushing and Receiving

YearGAttYrdsAvgTDsFumLRecYrdsAvgTDs
20171319410255.371161167.31
2018121617064.463231456.32
20191123111445.014330225754

Travis Etienne Rushing and Receiving

YearGAttYrdsAvgTDsFumLRecYrdsAvgTDs
2017131077667.213155711.40
20181520416588.124112786.52
20191520716147.81923743211.74
2020121689145.41444858812.32

Now, we have to take these numbers with a grain of salt.  The statistics in college will not necessarily transition at the professional level, but they also can’t be ignored completely.  It’s important to note that Etienne had one extra year at the college level, so that could be an advantage or disadvantage according to how you view that.

We also have to take into account the programs they played for.  I think it’s obvious that Etienne has the greater numbers by some margin, but he also played for a much better team.  Even without Trevor Lawrence, Etienne still enjoyed success splitting the backfield in his rookie season, going 10-3.  But once Trevor Lawrence came to Clemson, in the three seasons they played together, their record was 39-3.  This level of success certainly helped Etienne’s game.

Cam Akers, on the other hand, was not so fortunate in the school that he played for.  His rookie season was spent with a rookie quarterback and over the three years at Florida State, their record was 18-20.  This meant that Akers would have a much harder time establishing the run or even getting optimal play time on offense.  While we can’t lean on this logic completely when comparing the two, it is still important to look at.

Now that college is out of the way, it’s important to look at the teams they will play for in the NFL.  While Akers is going to someone he is familiar with in Sean McVay, Etienne is making use of Doug Pedeson in his second swing at NFL coaching.  It’s important to see how these two coaches have used their running backs at the professional level.  After all, both Pederson and McVay have coached five seasons in the NFL and both have only coached for one team.  Let’s discuss what that looked like.

Sean McVay’s NFL running back history

McVay came into the NFL extremely blessed with Todd Gurley at his disposal.  In his first season especially, Sean McVay used every ounce that Gurley could give.  His 279 rush attempts were better than the next closest running back at 63; the definition of a workhorse back.  He wasn’t done in the receiving game either, with Gurley leading the team’s running back in targets at 87 and the closest competition had 11.  In fact, Gurley was second on the entire team in targets.

The next two seasons with Gurley leading the way were more of the same, but as time progressed the usage, while still dominant, went down.  You have to question if Sean McVay is leery of using his star running back so heavily moving forward.  The next two seasons were led by none other than Cam Akers and Sony Michel.  It seems likely that Akers would have led last season if not for the injury.  But, unlike Gurley, the usage was not nearly as dominant.  McVay’s lead back almost split the rush attempts and the targets were not even first on the team in the running back room.  Can we expect more of the same moving forward?  Is Cam Akers a workhorse back or a 1A from now on?

Doug Pederson’s NFL running back history

Unlike McVay, Pederson has never shown faith in a typical workhorse back.  Although there is always a starting running back with him, he tends to use a split backfield.  It’s actually amazing that over his NFL tenure, he’s only had one running back as the starter in more than one season in Miles Sanders.  But, when your best option is Ryan Matthews, LaGarrett Blount and Josh Adams, you make do with what you have; no disrespect intended.

Now, can we blame Doug Pederson’s running back choices on his coaching alone or is it partial to the talent available?  Truthfully, moving forward, it will be interesting to see what he does in his fresh start with Jacksonville.  Unlike McVay also, even with a “starter” the rushing share was not great; and with the targets, it’s even worse.  It seemed as though he really liked the idea of a smasher and a receiving threat not being one and the same.

Conclusion

Lastly, we have to talk about the opportunity for each running back on the team for whom they are employed.  I don’t see much in the way of competition for Cam Akers, and now that James Robinson is on the shelf, Travis Etienne’s path to dominance is all but assured.  The teams they play for are also vastly different.  The Rams just won a Super Bowl and have no signs of giving up their championship moving forward.  The Jaguars, on the other hand, finished dead last yet again.  Will McVay ease Cam Akers because the team doesn’t need him as badly?  Will Pederson finally make use of a workhorse back because of the state of his team?

When considering the talent, it is too close to call.  With all the data and arguments, it comes down to the overall team value.  With Akers as a second round pick and the plethora of talent around him, the likelihood of usage is not as high as Etienne.  The Jaguars invested a first round pick in Etienne, making it harder not to showcase him.  Add to that the connection between him and Trevor Lawrence, the choice is easier.  While it has been documented that Trevor Lawrence wasn’t instrumental in bringing Travis Etienne to the Jaguars, now that he’s there I see the cornerstone quarterback wanting to make use of his college teammate as much as possible.

If you are drafting or trading for either, both are good choices.  But in the deathmatch, there is only one winner:

Travis Etienne

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Tim Lazenby

Tim Lazenby joined Dynasty Pros, after writing for a few years elsewhere, and is passionate about all things fantasy football. Tim has been playing fantasy sports for over twenty years now and takes his love of the game to every article he writes.  Although he’s played a variety of fantasy football, he is especially in love with dynasty football.  If you ask him for advice, whether you’re just joining or you’ve been playing for years, he wants nothing more than to help you succeed, than to keep that fantasy gold to himself.  A lover of the game and ultimate competitor, Tim is just trying to spread the good news of fantasy football to all.

twitter.com/nflazenby

Filed Under: Offense Tagged With: Cam Akers, Dynasty Deathmatch, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, Running Backs, Travis Etienne

Bounce Back Buys: Akers, Etienne, and Dobbins

March 10, 2022 by Darren Smith

Bounce Back Buys: Akers, Etienne, and Dobbins

By Darren Smith

 

The 2020 and 2021 draft classes were loaded with some promising young Running Backs. Unfortunately, the injury bug waits for no man. Three big names drafted in the early rounds the last two years had their seasons cut short and had Dynasty Managers asking questions on what to do with their high 1st round picks. Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, and Cam Akers all missed almost the entirety of last season with serious injuries, but their outlook on the 2022 season is in question. I’m here to put your mind at ease, and these injuries have created huge BUY opportunities with these talented backs.

 

Cam Akers

Cam Akers was the first domino to fall in the laundry list of injuries that happened in the 2021 Preseason. Akers tore his Achilles during the Rams training camp, leaving his sophomore season in jeopardy. Cam was drafted 52nd overall in the 2020 draft and had a promising rookie season leaving managers hungry for more as his fantasy capital rose. When news was announced that Akers tore his Achilles, it broke the hearts of many managers as this injury has one of the highest impacts on future NFL careers based on history.

However, modern medicine has progressed, and Akers had a successful surgery and rehab as he was able to return in Week 18, and the Rams postseason. While his box score didn’t turn many heads, the truth was in the film. Akers looked explosive in the minimal carries he was given, and his speed remained the same. Most managers were pleasantly surprised as he didn’t regress as much as initially thought as it was pretty much a miracle he came back this season at all.

The Rams went on to win the Super Bowl as they went “All In” this season. The RB position will have vacancy after free agency with Sony Michel likely to part ways, and Darrell Henderson being on the last year of his contract. This paves a direct path to a bell-cow role for Akers as he has all off season to continue recovery. There aren't too many players that I am more excited to see come back to NFL action than Cam Akers. With managers panicked about the stigma of an Achilles injury, Akers is being shopped around in most leagues for a discount. While there is some doubt he will ever return to true form, the sheer volume and workload that he will carry into 2022 will be enough. Akers is a strong buy and should exceed all expectations when he fully recovers.

 

Travis Etienne

Travis Etienne missed his entire rookie campaign with a Lisfranc injury in his left foot. Drafted 25th overall in 2021 by Jacksonville and coming off a stellar season at Clemson, Etienne had huge buzz coming into last season. Dynasty managers had to spend high draft picks on Etienne in hopes of becoming a bell-cow right out the gate. Etienne was only in the 2nd week of Preseason when it was declared he would miss the year, so managers didn’t get any chance to get a gauge on his production, and ultimately his fantasy value.

To me, this injury can be spun in a positive way. The Jacksonville Jaguars were a complete mess the entire season with new head coach Urban Meyer, who thankfully was fired before the season ended. There were obvious growing pains with the rookie Quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, leaving the offense stagnant and in the bottom tier of the league. Etienne may have dodged a bullet in 2021 as things are looking positive for the upcoming season. He has progressed significantly since the initial injury, publicly stating “I definitely feel like as of now I'll be ready to go for training camp.” While injured, Travis has been studying the game and learning a new offense with his former Clemson teammate Lawrence. This dynamic duo should make some noise this year with some experience under their belts. Not to mention change in the staff, with the Jags hiring Super Bowl winner Doug Pederson. 

Travis was a top pick in rookie drafts across the board, and obviously his value declined after the injury. If you haven’t already, Etienne is a perfect buy candidate for the upcoming season. Although he is progressing well, season ending injuries are never taken lightly by managers and leave doubt as to whether they will ever return to true form. Based on his young age, modern medicine and training, and recovery of Lisfranc injuries, I have strong confidence that Etienne will come back just as explosive as his record-breaking days in Clemson. Go after some worried owners with late 1st round pick offers. If you currently own Etienne, don’t take any low ball offers - holding is the right move as his value will shoot up when Travis retakes the field.

 

JK Dobbins

The NFL and fantasy managers didn’t even get a chance to breathe before the next devastating injury to a young RB in Baltimore. Dobbins tore his ACL during the final Preseason game of the 2021 season and ruined some Redraft leagues seconds after the news broke. Poised for an excellent sophomore year, managers were devastated being so close to the start of the regular season. Dobbins finished as the RB 23 in PPR leagues during his rookie campaign, finishing the final game with 160 rushing yards and two touchdowns. 

Being the 55th pick in the 2020 draft, Dobbins was another asset with high rookie draft capital in dynasty leagues. Luckily, an ACL tear may take time to heal, but in recent years it has had little effect on the remainder of NFL players careers. The Ravens had incredibly bad luck in 2021 with significant injuries to most of their skill players, including QB Lamar Jackson. With all players returning after recovery this offseason, Dobbins comes back to the Number 1 rushing offense in the NFL. With promising pass catching abilities, Dobbins has all the potential in the world to be a top back.

Dobbins had successful surgery six months ago, and every piece of news since has said rehab is going as well as it could be. GM Eric Decosta publicly stated “we are very, very confident that he will come back and be the type of player that he was two years ago. This should give you no doubt that the 23 year old coming into this 3rd season will be heavily utilized to his potential. JK Dobbins is a buy at the right price. Given the lack of RB talent in the 2022 class, high draft picks can be traded to acquire Dobbins. He should be a strong hold if you already have him on your rosters.

 

Conclusion

While all three Running Backs have had devastating injuries that caused them to miss the majority of the 2021 season, all signs point to full recovery and full workloads in 2022. Don’t let injury news scare you into avoiding these backs. They are all buy candidates, and should be targeted in the early rounds of startups as I have seen them fall over some guys that just won’t have the same production. Akers, Etienne, and Dobbins will be an integral part in the future of NFL Running Backs. What do you think? Are you concerned about reinjury, volume, or something else? 

 

Let me know your thoughts on Twitter, @FFBirdGang.

Darren Smith

Darren Smith has been involved with fantasy football since 2013 and is the commissioner of several Dynasty leagues. He loves diving deep into statistics, making bold trades, and creating fantasy football content.  Darren is a die hard Philadelphia Eagles fan, and his favorite position in football is the Tight End as he used to play this position in high school. Recently, Darren has become very involved in the fantasy community on Twitter (@FFBirdGang) and loves posting hot takes, breaking news reactions, and trade polls to help you win that next Dynasty trade to create your championship team.

twitter.com/FFBirdGang

Filed Under: Offense Tagged With: Cam Akers, Dynasty Dilemma, Dynasty League, Dynasty League Trade, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Trade, JK Dobbins, Running Backs, Travis Etienne

5 Players to Buy in Dynasty

February 10, 2022 by Bob Miller

5 Players to Buy in Dynasty

by Bob Miller

 

It’s officially the Fantasy Football offseason, but for those of us that play in Dynasty leagues, now is the time to start making deals to upgrade our teams. Today I’m going to give you five players I’m actively looking to acquire this offseason. 

 

 

JK Dobbins

When I think of JK Dobbins’ potential, I get excited. Dobbins showed everyone in 2020 that he was arguably the best RB in that draft. Obviously Jonathan Taylor would beg to differ. Anyhow, Dobbins was poised to take a big step forward last season, but he unfortunately tore his ACL in a preseason game. No worries, Dobbins is right on track to return to training camp. I expect big things from him and this Ravens rushing attack, but some fantasy owners are still worried about 3 things: Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and the below average offensive line. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens are focused on upgrading their offensive line this offseason, and they run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. Don’t forget, he averaged 6.0 yards per carry in 2020, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens were throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increased his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. Grab him now at an RB2 price, because he will be an RB1 for the next few years.

 

Cam Akers

This one is a little tricky. I don't believe you can get Akers at a big discount, but I believe you can get him now quite a bit cheaper than a year from now. Trading for Akers is going to take some skill, because those owners who have held onto him are now looking forward to using him this coming season. Don't let that discourage you from trying. When I picture Cam Akers potential all I see is Todd Gurley. Gurley was a touchdown machine and an absolute fantasy stud in Sean McVay’s offense. I see that same potential for Cam Akers over the next few seasons to come. Trade for him now if you still can.

 

Lamar Jackson

 Lamar Jackson is the perfect example, and I mean perfect example of a buy low candidate. Jackson was a mid QB1 at best last season. He also missed the last 4 games of the season. Keep in mind that Baltimore was missing their starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley, running backs JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, and Nick Boyle, the best blocking TE in the league. Like I said previously, Baltimore is extremely focused on upgrading their offensive line this offseason. Combine that with those players returning from injury, Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown, Rashad Bateman, and we may have another MVP performance from Lamar in 2022. Go get him.

 

CeeDee Lamb

Lamb finished as WR15 in PPR leagues last season. For a top 5 ranked WR in dynasty, that was quite a disappointment to say the least. He really faded down the stretch as well. That didn’t help either, but I have good news. Michael Gallup is expected to leave via free agency and Amari Cooper is rumored to be a cap casualty this offseason. That’s a lot of targets potentially leaving. If those things happen then Dallas has no choice but to throw it Lamb’s way often. Aside from injury, I see no way that CeeDee Lamb doesn’t finish as a top 10 WR this upcoming season. If you can get him at a discount, I say go for it.

 

Saquon Barkley

Someone in your dynasty league is terribly frustrated with Saquon Barkley. That’s what I like to see. I have been trading for Barkley at a discount wherever I can. We all know what he is capable of, and that Giants offense should be quite different with Brian Daboll coaching. I know Barkley has had some injuries, but personally I do not see Saquon as an injury prone player, just someone with a little bit of bad luck lately. I don’t have to sell you on Barkley, we all know what he’s capable of. I’m just here to tell you that I have no problem trading for him. Better days are ahead of Saquon. If you can get him at a discount, make it happen.

 

Bob Miller
Bob Miller

Bob Miller founded Dynasty Pros in 2019 after spending several years writing and ranking for various websites. Bob has been playing fantasy football for over 25 years. He is very experienced in a variety of different formats including Dynasty, Redraft, IDP, & Best Ball. Bob is especially passionate about IDP, as he has developed the Dynasty Pros IDP Scoring System that is used by thousands of IDP Leagues today. His sole mission is to help everyone win their Fantasy League’s Championship.

www.DynastyProsFootball.com

Filed Under: Offense Tagged With: Cam Akers, CeeDee Lamb, Dynasty League, Dynasty League Trade, Fantasy Football Trade, Fantasy Values, JK Dobbins, Lamar Jackson, Saquan Barkley

Dynasty Buy Lows & Sell Highs

August 8, 2021 by Bob Miller

Dynasty Buy Low Sell High

by Bob Miller

Aug. 8, 2021

Back in April, before the NFL Draft, I put out a “Buy Low Sell High” article. Looking back I hope you took my advice, because I recommended you buying low on players like Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Goedert, and Lamar Jackson. Some players I said to sell high were James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Chris Carson. You can see that article here: https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-buy-lows-sell-highs/

I’m back now to share with you who is on my “Buy Low Sell High” list now.

Tua Tagovailoa

So many fantasy football players are already calling Tua a bust. He was coming off a brutal injury, a shortened off-season, and an absolutely terrible receiving corp. That’s what Tua Tagovailoa dealt with last season. Now heading into year two, Tua now has a completely revamped receiving corps that fits his skillset perfectly, and he's had the full off-season to prepare as the starter. I can see Tua Tagovailoa being that late round QB to break out this season, just like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert did previously. He is one of my favorite buy low candidates.

Joe Burrow

I’d personally like to thank Justin Herbert for taking up all the rookie spotlight last year. That allows me to swoop in and get Burrow as a fantastic value. We all know that Burrow has tremendous talent, a great receiving back in Joe Mixon, and now three incredible WRs after drafting Ja’Marr Chase. Let’s add a terrible defense to the mix. All that means fantasy goodness. I don’t care if it’s garbage time or not, Burrow is going to be playing from behind a lot this season. That could very well put into the QB1 conversation.

TJ Hockenson

I’m not saying you will get Hockenson cheap, but this may very well be the lowest price you’ll be able to buy him moving forward. He and Jared Goff have worked together a lot this offseason, and it has been showing in camp. Multiple reports say that Hockenson is clearly the #1 target in the passing game. You can’t argue that when your starting WRs are Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams. Detroit is another terrible team that will be playing from behind a lot, which is good news for Hockenson owners. After this season I believe Hockenson will be joining the “Elite TE” Tier with Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

JK Dobbins

Dobbins showed everyone last season that he was arguably the best RB in the 2020 NFL Draft. Now he's poised to take a big step forward in his second season. While we can expect big things from Dobbins and this Ravens rushing attack, fantasy owners are still worried about Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards taking work from Dobbins. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry last season, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens have been throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increases his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. I have him projected for 1132 rushing yds, 11 TDs while adding 29 rec for 289 yds, and 1 rec TD. That puts him firmly in the RB1 category. 

DJ Chark

Remember this guy? DJ Chark was a hot name this time last year. In 2019 Chark averaged 15.67 PPR points per game. That was good for 14th amongst wide receivers. Unfortunately last season Jacksonville just stunk it up. Poor play calling and quarterback play crippled DJ Chark’s ceiling. Enter Trevor Lawrence. This big-armed quarterback isn’t afraid to sling the ball. Marvin Jones will get attention lining up on the other side of the field, and Laviska Shenault is a mismatch lining up in the slot. All of this bodes well for Chark, who should see plenty of single coverage. Currently being drafted/viewed as a WR3/WR4, Chark is a perfect buy low candidate that should return solid WR2 numbers.

 

Russell Wilson

Wilson is one of the first players that come to mind when I’m thinking “Sell”. He is an incredible fantasy QB throughout the first half of the season, but he really cools off for the 2nd half of the season. This has been the case over the last couple of seasons, and that really lets you down for your fantasy playoffs. In 2020 Wilson averaged 25.75 fantasy points through week 8. He averaged 17.08 points per game from Week 9 on. In 2019 he averaged 24.94 fantasy points per game through Week 9. After that.. 13.01 points per game moving forward. You can sell him now or use him until around Week 7 to trade him for a great return.

George Kittle

I’m not saying get rid of Kittle, but I would certainly entertain offers for him. He is an absolute beast when on the field. I don’t have to give you stats. Kittle is a fantasy stud, and we all know it. So why is he on this list? Because he plays pretty rough, and I have some durability concerns when it comes to him. Plus I love selling players at their highest value and getting good players and good picks in return. I would target the Darren Waller owner in your league and see if you can get Waller in addition to another solid player, or a 1st or 2nd round rookie pick.

Darrell Henderson

Sell, sell, sell, unless you handcuffed him to Cam Akers. If not, you’re playing with house money. You already have your RBs and Henderson was a late round or waiver wire pickup. Go target the RB needy owners in your league and make out like a bandit. I’ve seen Henderson go for a 1st round rookie pick in many leagues already. If you can make that deal, do it. If not, bundle him with someone to upgrade a position. My favorite is pairing him up with a mid tier Tight End to upgrade to Darren Waller or possibly even Travis Kelce.

Aaron Jones

Think about how worried you Aaron Jones owners were with the thought of Aaron Rodgers not returning to the Green Bay Packers. Those owners dodged a bullet this season, so let’s not go through that again. Rodgers’ new contract grants him an “out” after this season if he chooses. Sure, Aaron Jones put up great numbers last season averaging 18.49 PPR points per game, but if ARod leaves after this season, Jones’ fantasy stock will plummet. My recommendation is to cash out while you’re ahead. If you’re not getting what you want right now, don’t worry. Just wait a couple of games into the season. Everyone needs RBs in fantasy. When Jones puts up some serious fantasy points, take advantage at that point and cash in. 

Diontae Johnson

Johnson is another great sell high candidate. He averaged 15.09 PPR points last season as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target. Big Ben’s arm is shot, and this may very well be his last season. With that uncertainty looming in Pittsburgh makes me want to sell Johnson at what could be his highest value. With the emergence of Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Shuster getting his targets, it’s hard to predict what kind of numbers Johnson will put up this season. Don’t forget that the Steelers want to focus a lot more on the running game after selecting Najee Harris in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft. Find the Steelers fans in your league, because there is always Steelers fans in every league, and target another solid WR on their team like Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy, or DeVonta Smith.

Bob Miller
Bob Miller

Bob Miller founded Dynasty Pros in 2019 after spending several years writing and ranking for various websites. Bob has been playing fantasy football for over 25 years. He is very experienced in a variety of different formats including Dynasty, Redraft, IDP, & Best Ball. Bob is especially passionate about IDP, as he has developed the Dynasty Pros IDP Scoring System that is used by thousands of IDP Leagues today. His sole mission is to help everyone win their Fantasy League’s Championship.

www.DynastyProsFootball.com

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Aaron Jones, Baltimore Ravens, Ben Roethlisberger, Big Ben, Cam, Cam Akers, Cincinnati Bengals, Darrell Henderson, Diontae Johnson, DJ Chark, Dolphins, Dynasty League, Dynasty League Trade, Eagles, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Trade, Fantasy Values, George Kittle, Green Bay Packers, Jared Goff, JK Dobbins, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, LA Rams, Laviska Shenault, Lions, Los Angeles Rams, Matthew Stafford, Najee Harris, NFL Draft, Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, PPR, Quarterbacks, Rams, Roethlisberger, Running Backs, Russell Wilson, Seahawks, Seattle Seahawks, Tight Ends, TJ Hockenson, Trevor Lawrence, Tua, Tua Tagovailoa, Waiver Wire

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