Buffalo Bills

Three’s Company? 

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Three's Company? 

By Joe Goodwin

At this point in the fantasy football cycle, you are probably being overloaded with the amount of information that is available to you.  One article claims a player is a “league winner,” while another puts that same players on the “Do Not Draft” list.

Needless to say, conflicting information can be troublesome for most fantasy managers.

A fantasy point that always gives me pause is the idea that an offense can have multiple high-end fantasy producers all on the same field.

I looked into that very premise to determine if that is true or not.

Last year, I found 2 examples of a fantasy explosion (3 receivers in the top 36 and a RB in the top 24) from one team:

Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase (WR5, 305 pts), Tee Higgins (WR24, 219 pts), Tyler Boyd (WR31, 183 pts) and Joe Mixon (RB4, 288 pts).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans (WR9, 262 pts), Chris Godwin (WR15, 242 pts), Rob Gronkowski (TE7, 171 pts) and Leonard Fournette (RB6, 343 pts).

I should also mention that the Pittsburgh Steelers were very close to qualifying for this study:

Diontae Johnson (WR8, 274 pts), Chase Claypool (WR37), Pat Friermuth (TE13) and Najee Harris (RB3, 300 points).

So, with these examples, can we predict whether these teams can produce in that same manner:

Las Vegas: DaVante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs

Pittsburgh: Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Chase Claypool, Pat Friermuth, Najee Harris

Philadelphia: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders

Buffalo: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Know, Devin Singletary

Denver: Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Javonte Williams

Minnesota: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith, Dalvin Cook

Cincinnati: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon

With the 2 teams that accomplished that feat last year, both were led by top tier quarterbacks Tom Brady (QB3) and Joe Burrow (QB8) with offenses that finished 2nd and 7th respectively in total points and 1st and 7th in passing yards.  And, each team had a run game that was overall in the bottom 10 of the league (Tampa Bay was 25th and Cincinnati was 22nd)

So, with all that being said, what key elements are we looking for in order for a team to support 3 top 36 receivers?

Key Point 1: A team with the requisite 3 receivers to achieve Top 36 WR or Top 12 TE

Key Point 2: Top Tier QB 

Key Point 3: Overall Offenses that finish in the top ten in total points and passing yards

Key Point 4: Run Offense is bottom 10 of the league

As we analyze each team and how they relate to each key point, let’s see where we stand:

Oakland: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{I’m sure some would argue that Carr is a top tier qb, but are you drafting him in your top 8 qb’s?}

Pittsburgh: Point 1, Point 4

{Pitt has the weakest qb and middle of the pack offense}

Philadelphia: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{Jalen Hurts will have to prove he can be top tier first}

Buffalo: Point 1, Point 2, Point 3

{Run game is strong on Buffalo}

Denver: Point 1, Point 2

{Hard to project with the massive upgrade in QB in the offseason on where the offense will finish; Seattle was middle tier in offense stats}

Minnesota: Point 1

{This is not a dart at Cousins, more like a “wait and see” approach with the new offense}

Cincinnati: Point 1, 2, 3, 4

{Let’s hope the improved offensive line helps continue to the trend}

Based on this data, the four teams most likely to support 3 top 36 receivers are: Cincinnati, Oakland, Philadelphia and Buffalo.  

So, if you try to convince yourself to draft Jeudy from Denver or Claypool from Pittsburgh later in your draft in the hopes they can pay off….chances are more likely they will not.

And, if you want to wait a few rounds and grab a receiver like DeVonta Smith and Tyler Boyd after the 7th round, chances are good they may hit as a top 36 receiver.

Remember the numbers don’t lie!!  Only 2 NFL teams supported multiple fantasy starters in one lineup last year and most likely, that trend will continue again this year.

 

As always, “Come and knock on my door” if you need any fantasy help @JGoody77 on Twitter

 

Conference Championship Predictions 2022

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Conference Championship Predictions 2022

By Tim Lazenby

As we come another step closer to predicting who will raise the Lombardi trophy in the NFL in 2022, let’s discuss the Conference Championship.  Three playoff contenders return from last season and one new one enters.  This round will shine like the rest, so let’s see who continues on.

NFC Conference Championship 

Arizona Cardinals 11-6-0 (5) vs Los Angeles Rams 12-5-0 (1)

Last Game: Arizona Cardinals 11 @ Los Angeles 34 (01-17-22)

Los Angeles leads all time series 47-39-2

The Cardinals versus the Rams brings excitement and intrigue in many different facets, and I look forward to seeing them in full display in this highly anticipated rematch of last year’s divisional playoffs.  It was a straight up mollywhopping last time around, but will it be the same this time around?  Will the Rams have their way again or will Kyler Murray and his team show they aren’t going to be pushed around any more?

To me, the edge on defense goes to the Rams.  Featuring a cast rivaled by few, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey alone are enough to terrorize but they aren’t alone.  Other players like Leonard Floyd are vastly underrated and Bobby Wagner’s presence is still one to behold.  You have to remember, though, that the Cardinals defense is also fantastic.  The Cardinals defense is still one to be taken seriously; make no mistake.

As far as offense is concerned, despite all the weapons the Rams boast, I give the edge to the Cardinals.  And while the Rams may have the better talent on an individual basis, as a collective unit, I’m going with Arizona.  DeAndre Hopkins will be thriving come this time of the year and James Conner continues to be forgotten when he should be focused on.  The depth for the Cardinals also gets the edge on my end.

In a battle between the better offense versus the better defense, it’s sure to be a close one.  In my heart of hearts, I want to choose the Cardinals here as they will be hungrier and want to prove themselves to be the team on top.  That being said, it’s hard to ignore recent history.  Even though I see the Cardinals as the better team, I’m going with the Rams this time around.  Come this time in 2023, it’ll be a different story.

Los Angeles Rams advance, winning 27-23

AFC Conference Championship 

Buffalo Bills 13-4-0 (2) vs Los Angeles Chargers 14-3-0 (1)

Last Game: Los Angeles 17 @ Buffalo 27 (11-29-2020)

Los Angeles leads all time series 25-13-2

From a fantasy football perspective, this matchup is truly insane.  Featuring, in my mind, the two best quarterbacks in the game, this matchup won’t even come close to disappointing.  In real life, it’s almost just as exciting.  Of all of the games so far in this series, this is the one I’m wanting to see more than anything.  If we get lucky enough to watch it on full display, let’s discuss what the outcome will be.

If we’re talking defense here, I think it will be the two best defenses in the league.  Although I want to give the edge to the Chargers with all of their newly acquired talent, I’m going to give it to the Bills this time.  It takes time for talent to really meld, and the Bills are already there.  That being said, it’s the slightest of margins.  The Chargers played worse than they should have on defense last year, and with players like Khalil Mack and JC Jackson being added, they’ll be second best in 2022.

On offense, although the Bills will be fantastic, it won’t be at the same level as the Chargers.  Although the Chargers won’t be the best offense in the entire league, they’re near the top.  Despite all of the rage of Josh Allen as the best quarterback, I am certain Justin Herbert has the edge and Austin Ekeler will prove his worth once again.  There is no facet of Buffalo’s offense that is better than Los Angeles’.

So, much like in the NFC, it's a battle between the better offense versus the better defense.  And, like I said before, even though one is better than the other, it’s awfully close.  I see this going very similarly to the Buffalo versus Kansas City game in the playoffs last season.  The difference is that the offense won’t be able to run as wild as these defenses will hold the other side more accountable.  What a thriller it will be.

Los Angeles Chargers advance, winning 30-21

There’s one more round to go in 2022.  Two teams but only one can win it all.  The anticipation is killing me.  Check later for the exciting conclusion.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

AFC East Predictions

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AFC East Predictions for 2022

by Tim Lazenby

 

 

As we continue our experiment trying to predict the finishes for each team in the NFL, we turn our sights to the AFC East.  Boasting one of the youngest quarterback groups in the entire league, you have to wonder how long it will take a couple of them to truly succeed.  But with all the growing pains, there is also much excitement brimming for these young gunslingers.  Here are my thoughts on the AFC East in 2022.

 

Buffalo Bills

Record in 2021: 11-6-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 13-4-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Boasting who many consider the best quarterback in the game today, Josh Allen sure has a slew of weapons at his disposal.  Not only that, but the defense is arguably the best in the league.  And with the recent addition of Von Miller, we can only imagine what that defense is capable of.  The biggest worry for many is the backfield situation.  Devin Singletary was fantastic to close the season, but he hasn’t shown the consistency that instills trust.  Adding James Cook to the mix muddles the situation to be sure.

 

Situation to watch

If you didn’t watch the insane playoff showdown between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes last year, please go and view it.  Some are calling it the most exciting playoff game ever.  I am super curious to see how Josh Allen rebounds from losing to the Chiefs in back to back seasons.  Will they be able to take that next step past seventeen games or will they be plagued with another early exit?  Of all the situations to watch in this series of articles, this one will take the longest to unfold.

 

Conclusion

The Buffalo Bills are rock solid from top to bottom.  The list of holes on this squad is extremely minimal, and with Josh Allen leading the way, there’s always a dog in the fight.  There is only one team in the league that I have predicted to have a better record than the Bills in this upcoming season.  It’s almost a certainty that they take the division yet again and be a front runner for Super Bowl contention.

 

New England Patriots

Record in 2021: 10-7-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

The strength of the Patriots is the same as it’s always been.  Even though Tom Brady is arguably the best to play the game, the Patriots were and still are the epitome of a team.  Bill Belichick continues to show that if you want to play for his team, you’d better fall in line.  That being said, Stephon Gilmore leaving didn’t help last season and JC Jackson departing this offseason hurts their playoff chances even more.

 

Situation to watch

Although most people are watching for Mac Jones’s continued growth, I’m extremely curious as to what the future holds now that Josh McDaniels is gone.  His 18 year career with the Patriots leaves a sizable hole.  Both Matt Patricia and Joe Judge return to the organization with new jobs; tag teaming the void left by McDaniels at offensive coordinator.  You have to wonder what that change will bring about.

 

Conclusion

There’s something both comforting and maddening when it comes to the New England Patriots.  Bill Belichick is just on another level, so you can’t question how he runs the ship; but I’d be remiss if I wasn’t worried.  Not only have the Patriots regressed, both the Dolphins and Jets have improved substantially.  And the Bills are, of course, the Bills.  It’s going to be an uphill battle to make the playoffs in 2022.

 

New York Jets

Record in 2021: 4-13-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 9-8-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

In case you missed my recent article on the Jets, they’re one of the most improved teams in the league.  In this year’s draft, they addressed many issues.  Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall will inject thunder and lightning into this offense moving forward.  It’s a catch 22, however, as last season they were already the third youngest team in the league.  It’s going to take time to get this train to full speed.

 

Situation to watch

Elijah Moore was one of the most exciting players to watch last season.  On one of the league’s worst offenses, featuring an inexperienced and ineffective quarterback, he still shone brightly.  Battling injuries off and on, he finally succumbed to a season ending injury.  I want to know how he not only rebounds, but fits in with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall coming to town.  Will he take a back seat or take the spotlight?

 

Conclusion

Like I said in my article, I may be the most bullish non Jets fan in the community in how I see the Gang Green for 2022.  While I don’t see them winning the division or even close to it, I can see them battling hard and making lives difficult for other teams in a way we haven’t seen in over a decade.  While a wild card will still be a journey to get to, the basement dwelling is no more.  A new era is beginning, I’m sure of it.

 

Miami Dolphins

Record in 2021: 9-8-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 10-7-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

You have to have some grey in the beard to remember the last time the Dolphins had an elite tandem at wide receiver.  With the addition of Tyreek Hill, we’re going to see things through the air that we haven’t seen since Dan Marino was throwing to the “Marks Brothers”.  Obviously, the biggest question mark is the ground game.  Miami hasn’t had a consistent starter in almost around a decade and it’s more convoluted now than ever.

 

Situation to watch

Tua Tagovailoa is the situation that nearly everyone following this team is watching closely.  It’s not his fault that the Dolphins chose him instead of Justin Herbert, but ownership, management and fans alike blame him nonetheless.  They are slow to shy away from the success Herbert is having elsewhere and the rocky path Tua has given them.  The time must be now for any faith to remain in Tua leading this squad.

 

Conclusion

I can’t be alone in my optimism for the Miami Dolphins moving forward.  Last season, the Dolphins were inches away from the wild card as they sported a seven game winning streak right after suffering a seven game losing streak just before.  With Connor Williams, Terron Armstead and Tyreek Hill being brought in for support, there are no more excuses.  And I, for one, have the Dolphins as a pretty good bet to be one of the teams to represent the AFC come January.

Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

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Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

By Tim Lazenby

 

The consensus among experts is that Josh Allen is the QB1 in dynasty.  This statement is definitely not unfounded, as we’ll discuss.  When looking at contenders for the crown of top quarterback in dynasty, there are a few.  Many would put Patrick Mahomes right at the top.  Other names like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and even Joe Burrow have popped up.  But, I think the biggest contender is none other than Justin Herbert.

Since Justin Herbert only has two seasons in the National Football League, let’s take a moment to break down the first two seasons for Justin Herbert and his top competition, Josh Allen, as passers.  

 

Passing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

Year Age GS W/L/T Att Comp Yrds TDs Int TD% Comp% 1D Long Y/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk
2018 22 11 5-6-0 320 169 2074 10 12 3.1 52.8 89 75 6.5 12.3 172.8 67.9 28
2019 23 16 10-6-0 461 271 3089 20 9 4.3 58.8 146 53 6.7 11.4 193.1 85.3 38

 

 

Justin Herbert

Year Age GS W/L/T Att Comp Yrds TDs Int TD% Comp% 1D Long Y/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk
2020 22 15 6-9-0 595 396 4336 31 10 5.2 66.6 216 72 7.3 10.9 289.1 98.3 32
2021 23 17 9-8-0 672 443 5014 38 15 5.7 65.9 256 72 7.5 11.3 294.9 97.7 31

 

When it comes to prowess in the passing game, although Allen has greatly improved, he wasn’t even close to the same level in his first two seasons as Justin Herbert was in his.  Even now, Allen’s passing game, whether it be from the system or his talent itself, doesn’t approach the numbers that Justin Herbert has put out.  I’d still take Josh Allen over the vast majority of the league as a passer, but he’s quite a distance away from Herbert, at least by the numbers.

Let’s not forget about the running game for both Allen and Herbert though.  We all know that a rushing quarterback is much more valuable in fantasy than in real life.  It’s a talent that can’t be ignored when considering dynasty QB1 status.  Here are the stats for each as a rookie and sophomore.

 

Rushing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

Year

 Age GS Rush Yrds TDs 1D Long Yrds/A Yrds/G Avg/G YAC Fumb Lost
2018 22 11 89 631 8 41 45 7.1 52.6 7.4 280 6
2019 23 16 109 510 9 42 36 4.7 319 6.8 243 10

Justin Herbert

Year Age GS Rush Yrds TDs 1D Long Yrds/A Yrds/G Avg/G YAC Fumb Lost
2020 22 15 55 234 5 20 31 4.3 15.6 3.7 57 5
2021 23 17 63 302 3 28 36 4.8 17.8 3.7 48 1

 

 

When it comes to the running game, it’s not even close.  Josh Allen is far superior in this regard.  While he’s not at the level of Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray or even Jalen Hurts, he rules supreme among the duo we’re talking about and is still a top option in the entire NFL in this regard.  It is important to note, however, that the rushing game of Justin Herbert is underrated and respectable: quite in the realm of what you look for in that elite quarterback when paired with their passing game.

Conclusion

It’s a tale of two very different entrances into the NFL.  Josh Allen’s beginning was very difficult.  With Kelvin Benjamin, as a journeyman at that point, and an aging LeSean McCoy as the best options, you can see why he struggled out of the gate.  The defense also ranked in the middle of the pack, often leaving Allen without his best shot at success.  His continued improvement is fantastic, and even though I’m only highlighting his first two seasons, I don’t need to tell you how good he’s become.  The current team surrounding him is also very good.  The Buffalo Bills don’t have many holes and they should win their division; clearing the way for another year of fantasy success for Josh Allen.  I’m sure we can expect similar production from Allen, but that’s the problem.  I don’t see things getting any better.

For the first time in 16 years, someone other than Philip Rivers was QB for the Chargers and Herbert was better than most predicted, even behind the league’s worst offensive line.  In his first two seasons, Herbert was sensational and he’s only gotten better.  He didn’t need a couple years to develop.  He’s simply always been amazing and he’s only getting better.  Coupled with the unbelievable off season that Tom Telesco has given to the Chargers, I can’t see Herbert’s stock doing anything else but skyrocket.  The offensive weapons have quietly improved, but the defense is the most helpful part to aid in Herbert’s continued success.  If the Chargers don’t finish as the league’s best defense it’d be surprising, but even if they don’t, they are light years better.  This will keep Herbert on the field more, hence scoring more fantasy points than ever before.

In today’s NFL, dual threat quarterbacks are all the rage, but some are just so good that they don’t need to rely on it.  Take the discount now and bank on Justin Herbert as dynasty’s QB1 moving forward.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

AFC East Best Values

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AFC East Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

It’s official.  April is one of the strangest months as a dynasty fantasy football fan.  It’s been long enough after the season to have done tons of start ups and mock drafts, but we’re still a long way away from the NFL Entry Draft.  So even though we’ve done tons of drafts, made many moves and performed our best tricks to improve our squads, we’re at the point where many are pretty much done.  Here’s the rub: if you’re done now, you’re sleeping on primetime to make moves.  With so many managers in neutral gear, now’s the time to rev it up.  Every team offers values for your fantasy squad and the AFC East is no different.  Here are the best values in the AFC East in dynasty.

 

Buffalo Bills: Wide Receiver - Jamison Crowder

It’s no secret that the Buffalo Bills are the team to beat in this division.  Boasting the best quarterback in the league for many doesn’t hurt.  Add in a deep receiving core, throw in an underrated running game and sprinkle in a dominant defense that keeps the Bills offense on the field, everyone should want a piece of this team in fantasy.  Everyone knows Stefon Diggs is good and it’s common news that Gabriel Davis is the “breakout” on so many lists right now, but there’s a name that not many are even talking about.  I didn’t even notice that Jamison Crowder had signed with the Bills at the time, but you should take notice.

Jamison Crowder isn’t the most exciting name in fantasy, but if he was ever on your squad while healthy, you know exactly what he brings to the table.  It is true that he has struggled with injuries, but the talent is fantastic when he’s on the field.  Truthfully, Crowder has never been able to benefit from elite quarterback play up until now.  Despite receiving catches from subpar talent, he’s performed extremely well in the slot.  And now that he’s with one of the best, he’ll shine even more.  You can argue that the slot receiver is undersized, but he’s bigger and younger than Cole Beasley.  Beasley, also a slot receiver, is now gone; vacating his plus 100 targets every season with Josh Allen.  It’s time for Crowder to feast, and he’ll cost you pennies on the dollar.

 

New England Patriots: Wide Receiver - Jakobi Meyers

Bill Belichick is a genius, that much can’t be debated.  His mind is just different from anyone else in the game and his resume is proof of it.  Even though I question his moves sometimes, because I’m just a schlub, he clearly knows more than me.  I wondered why certain players just couldn’t stick or highly drafted talents weren’t given more opportunity, but if it’s my mind versus Bill’s, I have to concede defeat.  It’s for this reason that I continue to buy Jakobi Meyers everywhere I can, as Belichick trusts him on the field.  Some of you may argue that Meyers was a bad buy before Davante Parker came to the Patriots and Meyers should be avoided even more now.  But to that I say, the timing is even better.

Jakobi Meyers is never a name that instills excitement in the fantasy community.  But there is one main reason that he excites me.  Despite playing for a rookie quarterback who took time to learn and grow, Meyers was very consistent.  And while he lacked the touchdowns last season, I have faith this statistic will improve.  We’re also forgetting that Davante Parker, while extremely talented, is incredibly inconsistent.  While this is largely due to injury, I’d rather have a steady player like Meyers.  While others are pawing at the “discount” in Parker, make sure you get the real discount in Jakobi Meyers.

 

Miami Dolphins: Quarterback - Tua Tagovailoa

Amid all the controversy and excitement of this offseason, some names are getting a lot of press.  Real life scandals and big trades have taken the forefront, so it’s even harder to focus on what makes our fantasy squads better.  The Miami Dolphins are a team that I thought would contend last season.  And while I looked very foolish early on, as the season drew to a close, I was looking more intelligent.  There were many players to take the blame for Miami’s losses last year, but I don’t think anyone blamed Tua Tagovailoa more than any other player on the Dolphins.

“So if he’s so terrible, why are you suggesting him as a player to acquire?”, asks the eager reader.  We have to remember that we are looking for values in this article.  If I were looking for a top tier starter, Tua wouldn’t be on this list, but as a discount QB2, he’s right at the top.  If Jaylen Waddle is so good, we have to place a value on Tua.  Miami has made many supporting moves this off season to give Tua his best chance at success.  And, the biggest reason of all, the Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill.  These moves should have made owner’s salivate at the chance to roster him, but in the backs of most people’s minds, they’ll still say, “but it’s Tua”.  Don’t be one of those fools who can’t see the sure progression of the guy Miami took instead of Justin Herbert.  They’re invested and you’d be foolish to not invest at this price.

 

New York Jets: Running Back - Michael Carter

There are a lot of things that come to mind when you think of the New York Jets.  The real life fans have been through the fire with this franchise.  It must be truly maddening watching such highly touted prospects flop or leave your team in the basement.  But make no mistake, there is still treasure to be dug up on the Jets squad.  The most valuable Jets player is one of two in most people’s eyes.  One being wide receiver Elijah Moore and the other being running back, Michael Carter.  It’s funny in a way, because I see Moore as overpriced in drafts, while Michael Carter is not.  And even though he’s not “cheap”, he offers the best value on this team.

2021 was in many ways a terrible year for Michael Carter.  The Jets were, once again, one of the worst teams in the NFL.  Carter also spent a large portion of his rookie season on the mend.  But while others might see him as an injury risk playing on a horrible team, see him for the talent that he is.  The path for Carter to succeed is clear.  He’s young, has no true competition and is one of the only talented options to lean on.  Finding a starting running back for a discount is not easy, so it’s essential to take advantage when you can.  There are hurdles for sure, but Michael Carter is not one who is being held with tight fists by many managers.  This opens the door for you to make an attempt at gaining Michael Carter for way cheaper than he should be.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Dilemma: Devin Singletary

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Dynasty Dilemma: Devin Singletary

by Erik Wroblewski

 

Drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2019 Draft 74th overall Singletary was thought to be brought in to help back up LeSean McCoy. Before the start of the 2019 season, McCoy was a surprise cut by the Bills putting Singletary into a position to take on a larger role than expected. Coming out of Florida Atlantic Singletary did not light up the combine, he posted below average numbers for Running Backs in the 40 (4.66), 20 yard shuttle (4.40), and 3 cone drill (7.32). Let’s take a look at some comparisons to other Running Backs in the 2019 draft among those categories.

 

Player 40 Yard Dash 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Drill
Devin Singletary 4.66 4.40 7.32
David Montgomery 4.63 4.23 7.12
Miles Sanders 4.49 4.19 6.89
Tony Pollard 4.52 4.37 7.00
Alexander Mattison 4.67 4.29 7.13
James Williams 4.58 4.25 7.01

 

For the analytic crowd the 40 yard dash, 20 yard shuttle and 3 cone drill are important measurements, all which Singletary scored poorly on. When dynasty owners are drafting rookies or taking a chance on players, pedigree is a key factor which Singletary does not have. 

 

In his first two seasons, Singletary split the backfield in Buffalo, over those two seasons he totaled 307 carries for 1,462 yards at a 4.77 yard per carry clip. He added 67 receptions over those 2 seasons for another 463 yards, a 6.91 yard per catch average with 6 total TDs. His 2021 season started very similarly to his very average (at best) performance over his first two seasons. Over his first 13 games he had 112 carries for 547 yards, a 4.88 yard per carry. He added 32 receptions for 118 yards at a 3.68 yard per catch average. He also had 2 total TDs and then heading into a critical week 15 matchup everything changed.

 

Reasons to Buy

Heading into their week 15 matchup the Bills philosophy at RB changed as well as a change to the offensive line. Ryan Bates was inserted into the starting lineup at guard and Singletary was now the featured back. From week 15 thru the end of the Bills playoff run Singletary had 102 carries for 430 yards, a 4.2 yard per carry clip. He also added 15 receptions for an additional 111 yards, a 7.4 yard per reception clip. He also added 8 total TD’s. If you compare weeks 15-18 vs other running backs, Singletary finished 6th in the NFL in total yards from scrimmage and fell just short of being a top 3 player at the position. Prior to becoming the featured back, Singletary was averaging 8.6 carries per game and once he became the featured back, he averaged 17 per game. 

 

If Singletary has taken over the featured role heading into the 2022 season there is reason for optimism. Singletary could be a top 15 producer at the position due to volume in one of the top offenses in the league. The expectation is the Bills will be able to bring back their entire offensive back. Also added to the mix is well regarded offensive line coach, Aaron Kromer. Kromer was the Bills line coach back in 2015 and 2016 (Pre Allen and McDermott) where the Bills ranked #1 in rushing yards per game in both seasons. The Bills offensive philosophy is not expected to change much under new OC Ken Dorsey but with Kromer on board he will be able to help Dorsey and the run game and coach up run schemes. 

 

 

Reasons to Sell

Singletary at his best has been an RB3 in fantasy prior to his run at the end of the 2021 season, and mostly has been in RB4 territory. There is no guarantee that the Bills do not bring in competition through the draft or free agency. The free agency route is probably not an area they are willing to spend on since they have limited cap space and the money could be better used elsewhere. If they do go the draft route, the Bills coaching staff has not shown they just hand the keys to a rookie and let him go, in that case Singletary would be looking at another timeshare role. If they go free agency due to what they are willing to spend again looks like they would bring someone in to help share the load. He hasn’t shown he can carry or sustain the level of success that comes with a featured down role. His YPC with the additional work load at the end of the season was down half a yard from his career averages. Singletary also doesn’t have elite skills or measurables which is something that really needs to be considered as he starts to age in a dynasty format.  One last reason to sell, his value may never be higher. 

 

Verdict

Singletary is 25 years old and playing in one of the top offenses in the league. There is risk here due to future roles and measurables to be productive in a larger role for the long haul. A big part of fantasy is name recognition, which Singletary does not have, so you probably have an owner in your league that is not fully invested or gives him high regard. Because of this, the price is probably low to acquire him. Since he has a favorable price point in many leagues and a strong possibility of carrying a featured role into next season, the risk is worth the price and is a strong BUY candidate. Go out and acquire him at a RB3/4 price and understand a worse case you bought at the floor with potential to be a solid RB2. Dynasty is all about rolling the dice and taking calculated risk, at the price this is a risk worth taking.