ADP Ins and Outs: Running Backs
Flag planting, hot taking and calling my guys is everywhere right now. Its also a common saying that we don't hate the player but we hate the ADP (average draft position). That couldn't be more true. Everyone has a price that I'm willing to accept or not. As I prepare for the 2022 season I give you the players I'm In and Out on based on their price in drafts.
Miles Sanders- Carolina Panthers
Currently being drafted as the RB20. He finished as the RB15 last year. He will be the bell cow back in Carolina. He should see an increase in receiving work which adds to his value. I project him finishing above his 2022 finish and being just on the fringes of being a running back 1 on the year. If you bought Sanders in 2021 after a letdown of a season in 2022 you were rewarded. Expect the same this year.
Bijan Robinson- Atlanta Falcons
Currently being drafted as the RB4. Yes, Atlanta likes to run the ball but that was also from an offense that was missing Kyle Pitts for half the year and had lackluster quarterback play. They still have Tyler Allgeier who will get worked in. Last season the leading rusher for the Falcons had under 15 carries in 8 games. None of the top 12 running backs last season had more than 6 games under 15 carries. There is talk of the pass-catching work but I don't see that. He didnt do it in college and with CPat still there I don't believe Bijan gets that role.
Rachaad White- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It's a growing theme here. Volume is key. I see a ton of volume for White. The Bucs let Leonard Fournette leave in free agency and didnt bring anyone else in. White is the guy there with no one to push him for work. He is being drafted as the RB26. Fournette last year in that role finished as the RB12. White himself splitting time finished as the RB36. He has a pass-catching ability which just adds to his opportunities and point production
Kenneth Walker- Seattle Seahawks
Walker was a solid rusher last year for the Seahawks but it concerns me when they spend round two capital on a guy as talented as Zach Charbonnet. Walker doesn't rate well on pass blocking and saw minimal passing work. Charbonnet is a better pass catcher and a bigger back who will get the goal-line carries. Being drafted as the RB14 could be disastrous for your team.
Brian Robinson- Washington Commanders
There is a lot of love for Antonio Gibson this season but I would rather have Robinson. He is the primary back. He struggles in the pass-catching game which eats into his upside but being drafted as the RB34 he will pay massive dividends to managers. He finished as the RB43 last year after coming back from being shot in the leg. It's a new look Commanders offense who will lean on Robinson. I don't expect RB1 numbers but should easily be a value and finish above RB 24.
Nick Chubb- Cleveland Browns
Currently the sixth running back coming off draft boards which is where he finished last season. That was on the back of 302 carries and 12 touchdowns. Yes, Kareem Hunt is gone but he was not really a factor last year. The 300 mark is a significant number for running backs as the wear and tear starts to build up. The Browns could also work in some of their other younger backs like Jerome Ford. I expect Chubb's volume to come down so you are drafting him at his ceiling.
Isiah Pacheco- Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are a high-powered offense and you want pieces from it. I really like what I saw from Pacheco last year watching his game. He is a quick decisive rusher who gets positive yards on most plays. He fights for that extra yard every time. He has the burst and speed to get outside. He’s a playmaker for them. With Juju Smith-Schuster now gone it opens up more opportunities across the board. Pacheco is being drafted as the RB28. He finished as the RB37 but only saw solid playing time half the season. His carries and receptions should increase providing value
D’Andre Swift- Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, I want pieces of high-powered scoring offenses and the Eagles fit that but it doesn't matter if the player inst on the field. Swift seemed like an afterthought. The Eagles had already brought in Rashaad Penny in free agency and traded for Swift because of how little it cost. He is being drafted as the RB24. Even if he is healthy he will be splitting time with Penny and Kenneth Gainwell. His game is reliant on pass-catching work. He has only had over 150 carries once in his three year career and has never played a full season. GFainwell only has 37 targets last season and the other rushers only saw 35 total targets. The Eagles don't throw to the running back that often. I don’t see the volume to get a 3rd down back to be an RB2 for my fantasy team
Devon Singletary- Houston Texans
As we talked about with Walker there is a lot of concern in the industry for Damien Pierce. He isnt a great pass blocker and that they brought in Singletary who is a good all around back. Singletary is being drafted as the RB47. He has never finished below RB25. He has good pass-catching skills and solid rushing metrics. It's a massive value for where he is being drafted. He should have stand-alone Flex value and if Pierce doesn't improve could become a solid RB2 for your fantasy team.
Alexander Mattison- Minnesota Vikings
Yes, Dalvin Cook is gone and Mattison finally moves into the starting role. We have seen flashes on him in that and it has been good. My question is will he be the guy n Minnesota or does one of the other backs eat too much into his workload? Mattison doesn't catch the ball all that much so opportunities could be down. Currently being drafted as the RB22 which might be at or near his ceiling.
Playing fantasy football for over 25 years. Dynasty player for 4 years. Always digging for those diamonds in the rough players. First guy on Isaiah Hodgins.