Big Ben

Dynasty Buy Lows & Sell Highs

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Dynasty Buy Low Sell High

by Bob Miller

Aug. 8, 2021

Back in April, before the NFL Draft, I put out a “Buy Low Sell High” article. Looking back I hope you took my advice, because I recommended you buying low on players like Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Goedert, and Lamar Jackson. Some players I said to sell high were James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Chris Carson. You can see that article here: https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-buy-lows-sell-highs/

I’m back now to share with you who is on my “Buy Low Sell High” list now.

Tua Tagovailoa

So many fantasy football players are already calling Tua a bust. He was coming off a brutal injury, a shortened off-season, and an absolutely terrible receiving corp. That’s what Tua Tagovailoa dealt with last season. Now heading into year two, Tua now has a completely revamped receiving corps that fits his skillset perfectly, and he's had the full off-season to prepare as the starter. I can see Tua Tagovailoa being that late round QB to break out this season, just like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert did previously. He is one of my favorite buy low candidates.

Joe Burrow

I’d personally like to thank Justin Herbert for taking up all the rookie spotlight last year. That allows me to swoop in and get Burrow as a fantastic value. We all know that Burrow has tremendous talent, a great receiving back in Joe Mixon, and now three incredible WRs after drafting Ja’Marr Chase. Let’s add a terrible defense to the mix. All that means fantasy goodness. I don’t care if it’s garbage time or not, Burrow is going to be playing from behind a lot this season. That could very well put into the QB1 conversation.

TJ Hockenson

I’m not saying you will get Hockenson cheap, but this may very well be the lowest price you’ll be able to buy him moving forward. He and Jared Goff have worked together a lot this offseason, and it has been showing in camp. Multiple reports say that Hockenson is clearly the #1 target in the passing game. You can’t argue that when your starting WRs are Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams. Detroit is another terrible team that will be playing from behind a lot, which is good news for Hockenson owners. After this season I believe Hockenson will be joining the “Elite TE” Tier with Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

JK Dobbins

Dobbins showed everyone last season that he was arguably the best RB in the 2020 NFL Draft. Now he's poised to take a big step forward in his second season. While we can expect big things from Dobbins and this Ravens rushing attack, fantasy owners are still worried about Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards taking work from Dobbins. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry last season, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens have been throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increases his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. I have him projected for 1132 rushing yds, 11 TDs while adding 29 rec for 289 yds, and 1 rec TD. That puts him firmly in the RB1 category. 

DJ Chark

Remember this guy? DJ Chark was a hot name this time last year. In 2019 Chark averaged 15.67 PPR points per game. That was good for 14th amongst wide receivers. Unfortunately last season Jacksonville just stunk it up. Poor play calling and quarterback play crippled DJ Chark’s ceiling. Enter Trevor Lawrence. This big-armed quarterback isn’t afraid to sling the ball. Marvin Jones will get attention lining up on the other side of the field, and Laviska Shenault is a mismatch lining up in the slot. All of this bodes well for Chark, who should see plenty of single coverage. Currently being drafted/viewed as a WR3/WR4, Chark is a perfect buy low candidate that should return solid WR2 numbers.

 

Russell Wilson

Wilson is one of the first players that come to mind when I’m thinking “Sell”. He is an incredible fantasy QB throughout the first half of the season, but he really cools off for the 2nd half of the season. This has been the case over the last couple of seasons, and that really lets you down for your fantasy playoffs. In 2020 Wilson averaged 25.75 fantasy points through week 8. He averaged 17.08 points per game from Week 9 on. In 2019 he averaged 24.94 fantasy points per game through Week 9. After that.. 13.01 points per game moving forward. You can sell him now or use him until around Week 7 to trade him for a great return.

George Kittle

I’m not saying get rid of Kittle, but I would certainly entertain offers for him. He is an absolute beast when on the field. I don’t have to give you stats. Kittle is a fantasy stud, and we all know it. So why is he on this list? Because he plays pretty rough, and I have some durability concerns when it comes to him. Plus I love selling players at their highest value and getting good players and good picks in return. I would target the Darren Waller owner in your league and see if you can get Waller in addition to another solid player, or a 1st or 2nd round rookie pick.

Darrell Henderson

Sell, sell, sell, unless you handcuffed him to Cam Akers. If not, you’re playing with house money. You already have your RBs and Henderson was a late round or waiver wire pickup. Go target the RB needy owners in your league and make out like a bandit. I’ve seen Henderson go for a 1st round rookie pick in many leagues already. If you can make that deal, do it. If not, bundle him with someone to upgrade a position. My favorite is pairing him up with a mid tier Tight End to upgrade to Darren Waller or possibly even Travis Kelce.

Aaron Jones

Think about how worried you Aaron Jones owners were with the thought of Aaron Rodgers not returning to the Green Bay Packers. Those owners dodged a bullet this season, so let’s not go through that again. Rodgers’ new contract grants him an “out” after this season if he chooses. Sure, Aaron Jones put up great numbers last season averaging 18.49 PPR points per game, but if ARod leaves after this season, Jones’ fantasy stock will plummet. My recommendation is to cash out while you’re ahead. If you’re not getting what you want right now, don’t worry. Just wait a couple of games into the season. Everyone needs RBs in fantasy. When Jones puts up some serious fantasy points, take advantage at that point and cash in. 

Diontae Johnson

Johnson is another great sell high candidate. He averaged 15.09 PPR points last season as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target. Big Ben’s arm is shot, and this may very well be his last season. With that uncertainty looming in Pittsburgh makes me want to sell Johnson at what could be his highest value. With the emergence of Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Shuster getting his targets, it’s hard to predict what kind of numbers Johnson will put up this season. Don’t forget that the Steelers want to focus a lot more on the running game after selecting Najee Harris in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft. Find the Steelers fans in your league, because there is always Steelers fans in every league, and target another solid WR on their team like Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy, or DeVonta Smith.

AFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Our next stop is a division is full of intrigue in both real life as well as for fantasy purposes; The AFC North! Before we get into the team breakdowns, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger is back! The Steelers are an absolute BUY, targeting these players and reaching to get a piece or two of this group. Last year was a lost season but upside remains as they look to return to being a fantasy friendly offense.

QB Ben Roethlisberger: “Ladder Pick”, low QB1, 1-2% auction, round 13, Big Ben returns from injury with an outstanding offensive core surrounding him. If he is able to stay healthy (like Cam Newton in NE) he could have the largest ROI in fantasy football.

RB James Conner: RB2, 14-15% auction, round 3, I believe the Steelers will return to be an elite offense if Big Ben can stay healthy. Conner can be a major beneficiary with top 10 RB upside! A big riser for me this summer!

RBs Benny Snell, Anthony McFarland, and Jaylen Samuels: As of now I’m not drafting these guys unless it is a deep league. All priority FAs!

Snell seems to be the favorite for backup duties, McFarland is the rookie PPR target, and versatile Samuels has pass catching upside as well. Waiting to see how it plays out. Again we want players in offenses with upside.

WR Juju Smith-Schuster: WR1, 12-13% auction, round 3, I believe Juju is a major bounce back candidate and as a versatile WR in an elite offense, he is a player worth reaching for!

WR Diontae Johnson: Low-WR3, ideal WR4, 4% auction, late round 7/ideal round 8, Johnson showed flashes of greatness as rookie with poor QB play, he might be the best value of the skill position players on this team!

WR James Washington and Chase Claypool: Priority FAs, deep league end of bench stashes. These two 2nd round picks have immense upside in this offense, especially if Juju or Diontae were to miss time!

TE Eric Ebron: TE2, priority FA, $1 deep auction, he is one of the many good TE options late in drafts. Maybe the deepest the position has felt in years, I wouldn’t be disappointed if he ended up on a deep league roster. This athletic TD machine could be a wonderful late Best Ball pick

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson! Wow! An incredible and wildly satisfying fantasy performance! He does it all and executed the offense to absolute perfection! He alone makes the Ravens a Big Buy! I’m aggressively targeting players in this elite offense!

QB Lamar Jackson: QB1, 10% auction, round 4, I typically wait on QB but Jackson (as well as Mahomes) is extremely tempting to get early. He’s the GameShark because has the cheat code! (Remember GameShark?! How cool were those?!). Immense rushing and passing upside!

RB Mark Ingram: RB2, 8-9% auction, round 5, Ingram value has plummeted with the addition of JK Dobbins. I say “Good! More for me, please!” This is exciting because there is still plenty of opportunity for both of them to have fantasy success and Ingram is all the cheaper in drafts.

RB JK Dobbins: “Ladder Pick”, RB4 with RB2 upside, 6-7% auction, round 5-6, he was part of an epic RB class, It will be fascinating to see how their careers play out. He shares the backfield with Ingram for now. I’m targeting both in drafts, an easier feat to accomplish in auction

Dobbins like Jonathon Taylor have paths that are eerily similar to that of Ezekiel Elliott. Even with a crowded backfield, the Ravens selected Dobbins in the 2nd round! He checks all the boxes and lands in an elite offense! I am going to be aggressively targeting him in all formats!

WR Marquise Brown: WR3, 6% auction, round 6-7, this Best Ball target flashed as a rookie even while dealing with injuries. He is healthy, has added muscle to his undersized frame. He is a unique talent and a perfect weapon for the modern day NFL.

WRs Boykin and Devin Duvernay are both priority FAs. I would keep a close eye on any of the depth WRs in Baltimore. We want players in elite offenses!

TE Mark Andrews: TE1, 8-9% auction, round 5, nick-named MANDREW, which is awesome, he broke out along with Jackson last year, in glorious fashion. It is easy to forget how much he struggled with injuries last year, as he was essentially “questionable” to play for the majority of the contests last season.

However, he is a clear focal point of the passing game, and now has more target share potential with Hayden Hurst in Atlanta.

Cleveland Browns

A new HC is in town which will hopefully lead to some stability in the organization. It’s been a rocky road to say the least. For fantasy purposes, having big upside at every offense core position The Browns are a BUY!

QB Baker Mayfield: QB2, priority FA, $1 deep auction, this post-hype sleeper is surrounded by great pass-catchers and still has rushing upside. Since QB is so deep, I typically look elsewhere even when waiting on QB, but if he can limit turnovers he could be a real steal.

RB Nick Chubb: RB1, 17-18% auction, late round 1, early round 2, extremely talented in an offense that has scoring upside. Hunt can take away a little bit of his ceiling which is why I prefer Chubb in the 2nd round, but he is too good to pass up when he is available on the board.

RB Kareem Hunt: RB3, 5-6% auction, round 6, pass catching upside makes him an interesting FLEX, I typically like to grab WRs where Hunt’s ADP is but if I start robust WR with elite TE, he can be utilized as a RB2. He becomes an instant RB1 if Chubb were to miss time!

WR Odell Beckham Jr: WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4-5, the dynamic play maker looks to build off of a mostly down first year in Cleveland. He could be a major steal as WR2 on your roster. Beckham’s success does rely a bit of Baker. I hope he can return to his old form!

WR Jarvis Landry: WR3, 7-8% auction, round 6, PPR stud, one of my favorite players creates an excellent duo with his college teammate OBJ, it is a scary combination and should be fruitful if Baker’s play can be elevated from last year. He is one of the safest floor plays in the league! One of my first players I add to my queue!

TE Austin Hooper: TE2, with sneaky TE1 upside, it was a curious signing with Cleveland already having Njoku on their roster but more HC Kevin Stefanski loves to incorporate TEs into the offense.

Not the most “exciting” pick but should have a nice floor with room to grow! Keep an eye on David Njoku as well, Uber-athletic, priority FA, especially if Hooper were to miss time!

Cincinnati Bengals

Young HC Zac Taylor’s rough first year led the Bengals to a new franchise QB! The Bengals have nowhere to go but up as their offensive core falls into the NEUTRAL category. The QB play will determine how much juice is squeezed from the lemon. Hopefully Joe Burrow can make some tasty lemonade.

QB Joe Burrow: QB2, priority FA, Burrow broke college football last year with dominate play week in and week out, while seemingly played better as the competition grew. The Bengals get their new face of the organization. Very good weapons surround him, so I would not hesitate to add him if your starter misses time!

RB Joe Mixon: RB1, 22-23% auction, late round 1, Mixon is a really good player even with mediocre QB play. Burrow is an upgrade and provides new found upside to offensive core, most of which to Mixon. Should potentially see easier looks since defenses will have to respect the QB play even more.

RB Gio Bernard: RB5, 1-2% auction, round 13, Gio is old reliable, he can do it all, but he is behind Mixon, if Mixon were to miss time, Gio becomes FLEX option! One of best late round stashes (and moustaches) for your team!

WR Tyler Boyd: Low-WR2 (robust RB with elite TE), ideal WR3, 10% auction, round 6, PPR target, he will be a bit of a safety net for the young QB, I think his value is the least affected of the all the pass catchers! Very safe pick, nice weekly floor!

WR AJ Green: WR3, 8-9% auction, round 7, of AJ Green can do AJ Green things he will be the biggest steal of drafts. When he is healthy all he does is put up top 10 WR seasons! High risk high reward!

WR John Ross and Tee Higgins: Priority FAs, both should be rostered in all leagues if healthy when and if AJ Green were to miss time! Higgins is more of a dynasty buy compared to redraft! John Ross is best utilized as a Best Ball target!

Post-Hype Sleepers: Quarterbacks

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Post-Hype Sleepers: Quarterbacks

By Alex French

It’s here! Draft season is upon us and I can't contain my excitement. The NFL season is right around the corner, and we are here to help you bring home a championship. To begin your run at glory, here is the next in my post-hype sleepers series. Today we’re talking Quarterbacks. As a reminder, I define post-hype sleeper as a player who received large amounts of hype and excitement, but failed to live up to expectations. Let’s jump in!

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

If you follow me on Twitter (@TheBlindGuyFF), you may recognize this statistic. However, it makes a solid stance for the stability of Wentz. Wentz is the only quarterback to finish top 12 at the position, who had at least 1 touchdown pass in every game. That presents a very solid floor. 

This off-season the Eagles drafted 3 receivers (Jalen Reagor-1st RD, John Hightower-5th RD, Quez Watkins-6th RD) in this year’s draft to help add depth to what was a depleted receiving corps last year. Dallas Goeddert continues to improve each year in the league, and Zach Ertz continues to be a top target for Wentz. Carson Wentz is also the first quarterback to ever throw for over 4,000 yards without a single Wide Receiver topping 500 yards. Imagine what he could do with healthy receiving weapons. Oh yeah...he almost won the MVP award before he had his own injury. Wentz is in line for another top-12 finish and provides great value in all formats.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

As a rookie, Mayfield set the rookie record for touchdown passes with 27. That is more than Deshaun Watson has ever thrown in a single season. Mayfield also did that in just 14 games. This off-season the Browns heavily addressed the offensive line issues of last season. Pro Football Focus ranked them as the most improved line and third best in the league.

Kevin Stefanski takes over as the new Head Coach, which should help this offense take a step in the right direction. Look for the Browns offense as a whole to improve efficiency, allowing Baker Mayfield to show what helped him become a number one overall pick and a Heisman Trophy winner.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

2019 was a year the Steelers would probably like to forget. Injuries plagued their roster at all phases. From the offensive line, to RBs, and of course the receiving corps It seemed like no one could stay on the field. It all starts with the signal caller, who left in week 2. 

When we last saw Big Ben in a full season in 2018, he put together a finish behind only Patrick Mahomes.  After his surgery, Roethlisberger stated that it’s the first time in years he has had no pain in his elbow. Recent reports from Pittsburgh indicate he hasn’t lost any velocity and has even lost some extra weight. He has been hard at work and says he feels better than ever. I understand these are all things every player says coming off a major injury, but let's look at other factors. 

The Steelers offensive line is healthy, James Conner is healthy and even added muscle to reduce the injury risk, and perhaps most importantly, his top target in JuJu Smith-Schuster is healthy.  With the addition of Chase Claypool, JuJu should be able to slide back into the slot. Roethlisberger will also get to step onto the field for the first time with second-year wideout Diontae Johnson. The Steelers appear to be poised for a run at another Super Bowl with all hands on deck. With an improved team all around him, and his weapons and himself healthy, I think Roethlisberger will make fantasy owners happy in 2020. 

 

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

Mid/Late Round Players that will Finish Top-12

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Players Drafted Outside the Top-12 that will Finish Inside the Top-12

by Bob Miller

 

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford: Before Stafford had to be sidelined for the last eight games in 2019 due to a back injury, he was on fire. He threw for almost 2,500 yards, 19 TDs and only five interceptions. He was on pace to have a career-year, similar to 2011 when he threw for over 5,000 yards and 41 TDs. He is currently being taken outside the top-12 and should finish as a QB1 if healthy, easily making him a fantastic value pick, especially in Superflex leagues.

 

Ryan Tannehill: All Tannehill did last year after taking over in Week 7 was rack up fantasy points. In fact, from Week 7 on, the only QB to outscore Tannehill was Lamar Jackson. So why is he being drafted so low this year? Sure, he probably won’t repeat the same performance as last year, but he should put together another fantastic season with his rushing ability and weapons around him. With an ADP of 130 (#20 QB), he should drastically outperform his current price. At only 31 years old, he could be a nice bargain in dynasty leagues.

 

Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben should be considered a back-end QB1 if he's healthy and firing on all cylinders. He is fully expected to be 100% and ready to roll for Week 1 and he's my favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. JuJu Smith-Schuster should also experience a nice rebound season after a 2019 to forget without Roethlisberger slinging him the rock. Roethlisberger, with all his weapons around him, should be a fantastic pickup late in your draft that can payoff big time.

 

Running Back

Kenyan Drake: Drake is in a high-octane offense that’s trending upwards and should put up insane numbers this season. Greg Rosenthal of NFL.com states that Drake could get over 350 touches. Wow! There are a lot of great options in the top 10 RBs right now, but you can wait. Drake has legit potential to explode this season and a top-6 finish is not out of the realm of possibility.

 

Cam Akers: There is rumor that the Rams backfield could be a RBBC, but LA wouldn’t have spent a 2nd round pick on Akers if they believed in Darrell Henderson or Malcom Brown. We all know what a running back is capable of in this offense after watching Todd Gurley for the last few seasons. Even though the Rams have lost some guys on the O-Line, Akers is primed to be the early down back to start the season and could take over full time very quickly. It will be hard to keep him off the field, making him a double digit touchdown threat. He can definitely finish as a top-12 back.

 

James Conner:  There is no doubt that Conner is a fantasy stud...when he’s on the field. That’s the question. Can he stay healthy? Regardless, the Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and Conner has proven that he can shine behind them. He is a contract year player and extremely motivated to stay in Pittsburgh. If Conner can stay healthy, he will drastically outperform where he's being drafted right now. Take full advantage, as the risk is worth the reward.

 

Todd Gurley: Just like in 2017, Todd Gurley can be a league winner again. Gurley is going to be given all the touches he can handle in this Falcons offense, if he can stay healthy. If he shows that he can handle a significant workload, he'll easily outperform his ADP in 2020. Atlanta has the 3rd easiest schedule this season, which makes Gurley hands down one of my favorite values.

 

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp: Cooper Kupp may end up being one of the biggest steals in your draft this year. He was incredibly productive through the first half of 2019. In fact, from Weeks 1-8, Kupp was the WR2 in all of fantasy football. He finished as the #6 WR in PPR with 94 rec, 1,162 yds, 10 TDs on 134 targets. With Brandin Cooks gone, Kupp could see over 150+ targets this year. As Jared Goff’s security blanket, especially in the Red Zone, it’s very possible that Kupp could finish as a top 3 WR in PPR Leagues this year. With a current ADP of WR15 (35th overall), Kupp is a steal at this price.

 

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown: I know there’s a ton of hype around Hollywood this year, but it’s for good reason. He is the current #1 Wide Receiver in Baltimore’s offense. He showed what he was capable as a rookie with a bad foot hauling in 584 yds with 7 touchdowns on 46 receptions. Now imagine what he will do with a year’s experience under his belt, a healed and healthy foot, and a whole offseason working out with Lamar Jackson. He is primed to blow up this season. I have him projected to have 74 rec, 1,089 yds, and 9 TDs. That’s 239 PPR points, which would have been top 7 last season. Currently being drafted as a WR3/FLEX, he could be a league winner this year.

 

Jarvis Landry: “Old Reliable” is what I refer to Landry as. Wait.. old? Nope. He’s only 27 years old. The same age as Michael Thomas and younger than DeAndre Hopkins, meaning Jarvis Landry has plenty of good years ahead of him. He may be coming off an injury, but he has never missed a game in his NFL career...Never. He averages 94 catches a year, so why is he being drafted outside the top 30 WRs? I have no idea, but I absolutely love it. He is a wonderful target in the mid-rounds, which gives you an opportunity to stock up on RB or QB (if you’re in a Superflex league). He is as close to a sure thing to have 80+ receptions this year as you can get. Like Hollywood Brown, Landry is currently being drafted as a WR3/FLEX. He is a high end WR2 with WR1 upside in a Browns offense that should be improved.

 

Tight End

Blake Jarwin: Jarwin is finally free! Free from playing behind Jason Witten. He's in a great situation this season in a very dynamic and powerful offense. He’s very athletic and can stretch the field extremely well for a TE, which will result in some good chunk plays. He's going to see plenty of work and should be a back-end TE1 this season. Currently being drafted outside the top 20 TEs, Jarwin can pay off big time as a late round pick.

 

 

Hayden Hurst: Hurst is no sleeper by any means, and he is getting more hype as the season gets closer. This is a player with an ADP of the #21 TE a month ago. He has now creeped up into the Top 15. That’s still not bad, because he can still be the biggest surprise at TE this year. Hurst has a very good chance and path to finishing as a Top 5 option at the end of this season. Hurst is a tremendously talented tight end who is finally going to be given a full-time opportunity in Atlanta's dynamic offense. He will be a homerun pick in the later rounds of your draft. If you are in a dynasty league, go trade for him. You may have to pay more than you’d want, but it could still be a great bargain.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @DynastyProBob