Baltimore Ravens

Is Rashod Bateman Ready To Be The Hero?

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Is Rashod Bateman Ready To Be The Hero?

By Joe Goodwin

I drove into work this morning listening to a discussion on the Baltimore Ravens offense and the target share up for grabs for the Ravens. 

The theory was: Hollywood had 146 targets last year….and since Bateman runs a similar route tree to Hollywood, Bateman will just inherit those targets and will be a smashing success at his current adp of WR 37 and OVR 90.

Yes, any supposed WR 1 for a team going in the 8th or 9th round can return a ton of value.  However, is Bateman ready for 146 targets?  That rise in targets would be up from 68 targets from last year; a 114% percent increase in target share.

I used a few of last year’s 2nd year receivers that saw a substantial increase in role as a case study.

For this exercise, I used: (player, 2020 targets/ 2020 receptions; 2021 targets/2021 receptions)

Justin Jefferson (108/88; 167/125)

Michael Pittman (61/40; 129/88)

Darnell Mooney (98/61; 140/81)

Justin Jefferson had a 54% increase in targets from year 1 to year 2.

Michael Pittman had a 111% increase in targets from year 1 to year 2.

Darnell Mooney had a 43% increase in targets from year 1 to year 2.

Our closest comparison will be Michael Pittman’s target share increase.

Before the increase in role for Pittman, his rookie year campaign saw him grab 40 receptions for 503 yards and 1 touchdown.  

After his ascension to WR 1 for the Colts, his stat line was 88 grabs, for 1,082 yards and 6 td’s.

Rashod Bateman’s rookie year saw him grab 46 catches for 515 yards and 1 touchdown.

The parallels between Bateman and Pittman are uncanny.

So, can Bateman take that huge leap to a WR 1?

Let’s compare the two to help make the decision of whether Bateman can take the next step.

Pittman is 6’4 and 223 lbs

Bateman is 6’0 and 190 lbs

Advantage: Pittman

In college, Pittman had 171 grabs for 2,519 yards and 19 td’s

In college, Bateman had 147 grabs for 2,395 yards and 19 td’s

Advantage: Same (which is a positive for Bateman)

After Pittman’s 1st year in the NFL, his PFF grade was a 62.8.

After Bateman’s 1st year in the NFL, his PFF grade was a 64.9.

Advantage: Bateman 

Pittman made the jump with Carson Wentz being the signal caller.

Bateman has Lamar Jackson.

Advantage: Bateman

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line was the PFF 12th ranked offensive line.

The Baltimore Ravens offensive line was the PFF 21st ranked offensive line.

*The offensive line looks to be improved with Ronnie Stanely back at LT, rookie Tyler Lindenbaum at C, and Morgan Moses replacing Patrick Mekari at RT.

Advantage: Pittman

Conclusion

The setting is in place for Rashod Bateman to make a monumental leap in production in the same way Michael Pittman made last year. 

At his current ADP (90th), Bateman is a huge upside pick that can yield massive results for the manager that takes him.  As the summer progresses, I project Bateman’s stock to rise, so don’t be afraid to draft him in the late 7th round or early 8th to secure his services.  You may draft Bateman as your 3rd or 4th receiver now, but by the end of the season, he could very well be your WR1.  

Rashod is no longer the “Robin”....he is the “Bateman!” 

 

Dynasty Deep Stash – Makai Polk

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Dynasty Deep Stash – Makai Polk

By Tim Lazenby

In dynasty fantasy football every player in the league is in the discussion to bring about success.  While there are certainties like the top players at the position, there are also breakout players and sleepers to keep an eye on.  Well, below them there are an assortment of deep stash players to cross your fingers and just hope they succeed.  As many of these players are essentially “free” in drafts or can be thrown in as part of trades with relative ease, finding these deep stashes can be very lucrative if you know where to look.  One such player is Makai Polk of the Baltimore Ravens.  

Heading into the 2022 NFL Entry Draft, many players were holding draft parties knowing full well their names would be called.  There were other players wondering how far past day one they would have to wait to don their new colors with their new NFL teams.  And despite all the talent, drive and determination, some players simply wouldn’t be drafted at all.  Being left alone after the draft would have them entering the uncertain land of the UDFA.  

I’ll admit I was somewhat surprised that Makai Polk was left as an undrafted free agent after the draft.  While he wasn’t the only surprise for me and I knew there was a chance no one would take a shot on him, it was still shocking to see 262 players chosen before Polk.  I am fully aware that there wasn’t a lot of hype behind the Mississippi State product, but I still believed.  Before I delve any further, let’s go over the numbers.

Tale of the Tape

Makai Polk 

6’3” 195 lbs

Hands – 9.48”

Arm – 32.2”

Wing – 77.7”

40 time – 4.59 

Vertical – 31.0

Shuttle – 4.36

Let’s face it: Makai Polk had a bad combine if you look at the numbers for the drills.  Of 32 wide receivers who ran the 40 yard dash, he finished 26th.  Among the 34 wide receivers who attempted the vertical jump, Makai finished 32nd.  Finally, among the 13 wide receivers who attempted the shuttle, Makai finished 7th.  The combine truthers came out of the woodworks against Polk and any other player who performed poorly in these circumstances.

And while these numbers look appalling, especially the 40 time that everyone and their mom cares so much about, I’m here to tell you it’s not everything.  Did you know that Antonio Brown (4.56), for example, ran at a very similar time?  Legends Larry Fitzgerald (4.63), Anquan Boldin (4.71) and arguably the greatest of all time, Jerry Rice (4.71) were all way slower at the 40 than Makai Polk.  While I don’t think Polk is a surefire bet to meet their numbers, it’s still important to know.  I’m not saying that the 40 yard dash and other spectacles are useless, but they should be treated more like evidence than proof of a player’s skill on the football field.

I’ve preached for years now that I don’t care that much about combine numbers.  I watch it as often as I can, but it’s more for entertainment.  I care far more about watching how players do in football situations like actually running routes and catching balls. On the positive side, Polk measured well when it comes to size.  We all know that smaller players can succeed for sure, but it’s certainly not hurting a player’s chances if they are larger.  Makai Polk measured among the bigger players in all his physical aspects, notably being in the top ten in wingspan.  I just love a receiver with reach.

College Years

Long before the draft, Makai Polk began his college career at California.  And although he wasn’t bad, he certainly didn’t stand out.  After playing only 12 games in two seasons, it was clear that a change of pace was in order.  Despite the Pac-12 being a typically easier division, Polk’s time in California did not show what he was capable of.  In a large twist, going to a tougher SEC division, he actually excelled at Mississippi State.  Here are his final numbers in college.

13 games, 105 receptions, 1046 yards, 9 touchdowns

And in case you don’t know how good that is, he broke his school’s single season records in receptions and yards.  His receptions were also the best in the entire SEC division, arguably the top division in all of college football.  What he accomplished is even more impressive considering the scheme he played in.  His coach had designed the plays to be short and sweet, so we never really got to see how good Polk could be if his quarterback would just uncork the ball and throw it up for Polk.

Final Thoughts

There’s much to be said about the fact that I am not a professional scout, coach or manager as much as I like to believe I am.  While I often have to just accept what grade the big boys give to players, there are circumstances where my football “spidey-sense” just has to override it all.  I simply cannot see a world in which Makai Polk doesn’t eventually land his opportunity with all the size and talent that he has.  A bad combine derailed his chances at being drafted, but let’s not forget what has happened after the draft.

Polk now heads to Baltimore where the situation is just about as good as it can get.  While it’s true that the Ravens are among the league’s top rushing offenses, the Ravens’ quarterbacks still threw the ball 611 times last season.  With Marquise Brown now gone, his 146 targets are up for grabs.  Add to that the fact that Baltimore has one of the most inexperienced receiving corps in the league, it’s all looking up for Makai as long as he can work his way into the lineup.  With Rashod Bateman as the top option at wide receiver, I can’t think of a better landing spot.

I’m not telling you to spend a top pick on Polk or trade your elite talent to acquire him.  I am saying, however, that there isn’t a better player who costs you pretty much nothing.  In dynasty, where you have deeper benches to fill and time to wait, do the right thing for your team and get Makai Polk on your roster.  

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

AFC North Predictions

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AFC North Predictions for 2022

by Tim Lazenby

 

Heading toward 2022 faster than we all think, each team in the NFL has the chance to repeat greatness or correct disaster.  Whether you finished dead last or won the Lombardi Trophy, each team begins anew with an unscathed record.  As we look at the AFC North, it is a division ripe with rivalry and storylines.  Let’s attempt to figure out how each team will do for the upcoming season.

 

Baltimore Ravens

Record in 2021: 8-9-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 9-8-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Last season the Baltimore Ravens were decimated with injuries.  Looking ahead, a healthy, albeit unhappy, Lamar Jackson is crucial to the team’s success.  Arguably the best tight end in the league on your team doesn’t hurt, and let’s not forget about promising JK Dobbins coming back from injury himself.  The worry is that even though there are high hopes for Rashod Bateman, the receiving group is among the least tested in the entire NFL.  

 

Situation to watch

All eyes are on Kyle Hamilton when it comes to draftees from the Ravens this off season, and why not?  He fell so far, the value was insane.  But I’m even more interested in fellow first round pick, Tyler Linderbaum.  With Bradley Bozeman leaving for Carolina, Eric DeCosta drafted just what the doctor ordered.  The only thing holding Linderbaum back is his size but thankfully, putting on weight is a lot easier than putting on talent.

 

Conclusion

If I’m being honest here, I don’t see how the Ravens only get 9 wins if the team stays healthy, but I have to stand by my assessment.  I see some key losses early on and a bad stretch to end the season.  Until they can do better against their own division, it’s not going to look pretty.  That being said, I can still see them in the playoffs.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Record in 2021: 10-7-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 12-5-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

I can still hear, “WHO DEY” in my sleep.  Talk about fans coming out of the woodwork.  When it comes to offenses, there aren’t many higher powered than the Bengals.  Once Burrow and Chase reunited, they didn’t look back.  But I can’t remember such a bad offensive line carrying their team so far as they did for the Bengals last season.  And even though it’s vastly improved, you wonder if it’s enough.

 

Situation to watch

As I mentioned before in the glaring weakness for the Bengals, the offensive line needs to improve drastically for further success.  While Joe Burrow is fantastic, he’s not a magician.  Getting sacked 70 times last season had to take a toll.  And while the Cinderella run was awe inspiring, if this situation is not corrected, there will be no ball next time; just disappointed mice and a smashed pumpkin.

 

Conclusion

My prediction for this team is quite believable considering what they accomplished last season.  The offensive talent is brimming over the edge, but let’s not forget about the unheralded defense, with the secondary in particular.  While fans are probably still jeering poor Eli Apple, players like Chidobie Awuzie and Mike Hilton are at the top of their game.  I have no doubt that the Bengals take the AFC North again, only this time it will be with more authority.

 

Cleveland Browns

Record in 2021: 8-9-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

When it comes to the Cleveland Browns, the running game led by Nick Chubb is among the best in the NFL.  Possibly the best pure runner in the league, when paired with a healthy Kareem Hunt, it can be mesmerizing.  The highly polarizing arrival of Deshaun Watson will bring a new era, but it comes with its own drama.  Changing the team’s identity is not a task easily performed.

 

Situation to watch

The first fully healthy season from Myles Garrett since 2018 did not disappoint.  While names like TJ Watt, Aaron Donald and Micah Parsons are spoken of so often as elite defenders, (and rightfully so), so many forget to mention Garrett.  He needs to receive more praise for what he does each season.  On a side note, I’d also love to see a full season from Denzel Ward and Jadeveon Clowney.

 

Conclusion

I can’t wait for the day when I don’t see a drama headline about either Deshaun Watson or Baker Mayfield when it comes to Cleveland.  I see this team underachieving, not due to a lack of talent, but due to the noise.  If they can settle down and just play football, they have the tools to contend for the division, but it doesn’t seem likely for 2022.  Another year, it seems, of middling progress before they find their footing awaits.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record in 2021: 9-7-1  

Predicted Record in 2022: 11-6-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

When it comes to the strengths of the Steelers, Najee Harris leads the charge and don’t forget about underrated Diontae Johnson at receiver.  But as we all know, the quarterback situation is quite uncertain.  It’s coming down to last chance Mitchell Trubisky or fresh from the draft Kenny Pickett.  While neither are expected to be Big Ben, it’s worrisome in these uncharted waters.

 

Situation to watch

Obviously, as we just discussed, the situation to watch is the quest to find the heir apparent for Roethlisberger.  And even if it is decided eventually, I can’t see it being right away.  Yinzers will have to hold their breath as they eagerly await the captain to steer this ship.  After all, the last time Big Ben wasn’t the starter it was Tommy Maddox leading the charge.  It just feels strange to see anyone else, but we must press on.

 

Conclusion

Much like the Ravens, my prediction for the Steelers surprises even me.  In my heart of hearts, there has to be regression, but based on my calculations, it’s actually looking upward for Steel Town.  In order for this to happen, there can’t be any wasted time.  The defense must carry the team until the starting quarterback emerges.

Dynasty Dilemma: Lamar Jackson 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Lamar Jackson 

by Tim Lazenby

 

The National Football League is one filled with a rich history.  When a feat is accomplished it is unlikely that it hasn’t been done already.  The NFL is actually over 100 years old and the merger that caused the league as we know it today was over half a century ago.  Needless to say, and understating the obvious, records aren’t easily broken and true history isn’t likely to be carved anymore.  But, it does happen.  One of these trailblazers still here is none other than Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.

 

The Reason to Sell

Before last season, I don’t think there was any reason to have such a debate.  Lamar Jackson showed nothing but improvement and prowess; exactly the type of player you want leading your dynasty to the ultimate fantasy prize.  Questions of looming health and long term value have begun creeping in and it’s time to address the question of Lamar Jackson’s value.  Just what do we do with the quarterback from Louisville?

 

Poor Protection

Despite having many talents, we all know the greatest strength to Lamar Jackson’s game is his ability to run the ball.  The opposing team needs to change it’s whole defensive scheme to account for that one unicorn in Baltimore.  The sad truth is that a runner can only be as effective as his protection.  Defenses have not only brought more pressure each and every year Lamar has played, he’s payed the price in a higher sack rate as well.  Last season he was sacked an extra 40% more than he was in his MVP season.  His ineffective offensive line also forces his hand more.  Decisions to throw or not turn into a hurried run play due to lack of time and blocking.  How much longer can Lamar Jackson take the pressure until it plummets his fantasy football value? 

 

Lack of Receivers

Not every team in the NFL has the same talents and depth at positions as others.  Each and every team, no matter how strong, has weaknesses and one of the glaring ones in Baltimore is its lack of receiving depth.  Without a plethora of hands to throw to, Lamar is forced to funnel too many targets at Andrews and rush the ball more than he should.  Even back to college, he was a monster running the ball, but he was a very underrated passer.  The depth at Louisville didn’t consist of one target hog, making Lamar much more of a swiss army knife, rather than a running back playing quarterback; as he’s been called.  Until the Ravens bring in more talent to catch, Lamar will be penned in.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

Name another quarterback like Lamar Jackson.  I’d be reluctant to name one; that’s for sure.  Although there are others who share elements of his game, Lamar Jackson is truly one of a kind.  Players like Kyler Murray have had flashes, but not like Lamar Jackson.  And rushing aside, his arm, vision and leadership are greatly underestimated.  Freshly turned 25, the sky is truly the limit.  We’ve only begun to scratch the surface of what he can really do.  And with so many elite options at the position being a limited number, shouldn’t we pounce while we can?  Many would say absolutely.

 

Dual Threat

I’ve alluded to it many times, but if you didn’t know or have never seen him play, Lamar Jackson is arguably the greatest running quarterback of all time.  Michael Vick really broke the mold first in this style, and Cam Newton continued the legacy, but Lamar has virtually perfected it.  Lamar is one of two quarterbacks to run 1000 yards in a single season, and Lamar has done it twice.  In fact, had he played a full season, he averaged to do it for a third time in a row.  In fantasy, points are hard to come by as a quarterback, so if you add rushing, they pile up that much faster.  Throughout his career, he’s never averaged less than double digits per game in rush attempts.  And last season, with less games played, he broke more tackles and had a better yards after contact ratio.

 

Proven Winner

Lamar Jackson has a history of reigning.  Although he’s yet to claim the Superbowl, in fantasy, we only care about the regular season.  In college, he won the Heisman Trophy, for MVP at that level, in only his sophomore season.  And fantasy managers were rewarded in his first full season in the NFL.  Lamar was so insanely good that he won the NFL MVP at only 22.  In fact, he was only the second player in league history to win the award unanimously.  There is no doubt in my mind that Lamar Jackson is the type of player who is not content unless he’s getting better every year.  When you think about making a move for a cornerstone dynasty player, what more can you ask for?

 

Verdict

I’ll admit it, despite all his success in college, I agreed with the Ravens waiting so long to draft him. Due to his play style, there are more risks involved; not just with injury, but learning how to let the plays evolve and making the smarter decision for the long term.  Looking back now, it’s insane that Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen went significantly higher.  Baltimore even took tight end Hayden Hurst before drafting Lamar.  It just goes to show that evaluating talent at the NFL level is not an exact science.

 

Lamar Jackson is one of the best players, not only at his position, but in the entirety of the National Football League.  A truly unique specimen, Jackson is one to be sought after and envied by anyone who doesn’t have him.  I face this dilemma though.  If it were redraft, there aren’t too many quarterbacks I’d like more, but in dynasty, long term value is a considerable factor.  Rush first quarterbacks simply do not last as long as ones that are not.  I would rather have a dual threat quarterback, but at an equivalent price, I lean toward one that will last.  At his current price point in dynasty, it gives me no option than to consider selling, but the deal has to be right.  There has to be an elite quarterback gained in return, however I’m sure I can get one back with draft capital too.

 

.. as long as the price is right.

AFC North Best Values

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AFC North Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

Isn’t dynasty the best format for fantasy football?  I don’t know why anyone plays any other version.  There’s just something about managing a team that will be with you for as long as you see fit.  And while some like the “reset” that each new year brings in redraft, I’ll never understand the appeal of losing what I worked so hard to get.  No matter what type of fantasy football you choose to play, finding values is essential.  For those of us who play dynasty, we can pretty much make moves whenever we want, so this is a big advantage over those who hibernate from fantasy football in the offseason.  Today, let’s delve deep into the caverns of the AFC North to look for the best value player each team has to offer.  This is my second favorite division, so I’m excited.

 

Baltimore Ravens:  Wide Receiver - Marquise Brown

If we’re being honest, the Baltimore Ravens overall are underrated.  Aside from Mark Andrews, many of their skilled players just aren’t given the respect they are due in drafts and trades.  So finding values is a lot easier on this team than others.  The only issue is picking the best value in Baltimore, and for me it has to be Marquise Brown.  While so many are flocking to Mark Andrews when it comes to seeing talent, don’t be foolish and overlook Hollywood.  In fact, among wide receivers, he’s one of the better values in the entire National Football League.

Marquise Brown, despite all his talent, will always be seen as that guy who is the team’s top wide receiver, but one that will always struggle for consistency.  Whether it is Mark Andrews taking so many of Lamar’s targets or the butter fingers that Brown showed last season, not many have the faith that they should in Baltimore’s top wide receiver.  If I’m being completely honest, will Marquise Brown be a top ten wide receiver next season?  The answer is not likely.  But that doesn’t mean that he won’t be a solid WR2 with upside for a WR1.  And if one more person tells me that Rashod Bateman is taking over, I might lose my marbles.  Make no mistake, not only will Marquise Brown be a steal for you, he’s the best steal on the Ravens roster.

 

Cincinnati Bengals: Tight End - Hayden Hurst

I can still hear “who dey” in my sleep after last season’s Super Bowl appearance for the Cincinnati Bengals.  I’m not sure where all these fans came from, but they sure did make an appearance.  I am a little biased here as the Bengals are my second favorite team, but if you don’t at least own a piece of this offense, you are doing yourself a great disservice.  It would make sense to put the likes of Tyler Boyd or even Tee Higgins here, as many seem to forget anyone other than superstar Ja’Marr Chase are in Cincinnati, but I’m going to suggest Hayden Hurst as the best value here.

I know it sounds crazy to say it.  After all, despite being a first round draft pick by the Ravens, he hasn’t had the success that Baltimore predicted when they took him before they even took Lamar Jackson.  And his time in Atlanta certainly didn’t bear fruit, so why believe in him now?  If you saw what Joe Burrow did with CJ Uzomah last season, you’ll see the logic.  Uzomah was always a good tight end, but his stats didn’t reflect it.  Last season, in his only full go with Burrow, we watched Uzomah crush career numbers and be leaned on in critical situations.  I think Hayden Hurst is headed for a resurgence in one of the league’s most high flying offenses and, at the hardest fantasy position, he’s probably gathering dust on the waiver wire as we speak.

 

Cleveland Browns: Wide Receiver - Donovan Peoples-Jones

We’re headed for a new era in Cleveland here, folks.  Although Baker Mayfield is still with the team, Deshaun Watson is now in town and they will revamp anything and everything for him to be successful.  If you’ve forgotten or didn’t know, the haul that the Browns gave up for a guy who hasn’t played in over a year, had massive legal issues and problems with his old front office is truly unprecedented.  I’m not going to comment on any of it, but I’m just saying, the Browns are completely invested in Watson.  Although the Browns will most likely bring in wide receiver talent through free agency, trading or the draft, I think we should be investing in what’s there now.

 

The days of OBJ and Jarvis Landry are history.  Until there is new movement, the top option for Deshaun Watson is none other than Donovan Peoples-Jones.  The statistics aren’t jaw dropping, but let’s consider he was playing behind one to three other players at times last year and was receiving from a quarterback who didn’t best utilize his talents.  Under this new offensive regime, I am completely certain that  Peoples-Jones will crush it.  Now's the time to pounce and grab a guy who did very well considering his circumstances last season.  I also believe, though it saddens me, that Nick Chubb will be a little less involved considering Watson’s style of play versus Mayfield’s.  The path is clear for Peoples-Jones to shine and shouldn’t it be for your team?

 

Pittsburgh Steelers: Wide Receiver - Chase Claypool

Up until two years ago, the Pittsburgh Steelers were my real life favorite team.  I have seen so many Big Ben to Antonio Brown touchdowns that I can’t even count.  Many fans haven’t even seen their team win a championship and I’ve seen a few, so they were good times.  Needless to say, I’ve moved on to another team we’ll discuss in the next article so I feel that, for the first time, I can be completely unbiased about Pittsburgh and what they have to offer for your fantasy team as far as values.

It is very tempting to put MItch Trubisky’s name here, but I just can’t until after the draft.  If I knew that Pittsburgh had not taken one in the draft, I’d be writing about Trubisky, but I can’t sell the farm on him just yet.  With that in mind, I turn to Chase Claypool.  I have the world of respect for Diontae Johnson, and although he is undervalued, the blindness toward Claypool’s talents is even greater.  Mad respect for Big Ben, but it wasn’t good these past couple years, so Claypool’s value will not go down in the receiving game.  It will go up substantially as JuJu is gone and Claypool is the true number two option.  I also love the fact that Chase is so involved in the rushing game.  While he’s not at Deebo Samuel level, Claypool’s no slouch in that regard.  With uncertainty at quarterback and an attempt to save Najee’s strength a bit, I think Claypool is more used as a rusher as well.  Make the move for Chase Claypool.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Buy Lows & Sell Highs

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Dynasty Buy Low Sell High

by Bob Miller

Aug. 8, 2021

Back in April, before the NFL Draft, I put out a “Buy Low Sell High” article. Looking back I hope you took my advice, because I recommended you buying low on players like Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Goedert, and Lamar Jackson. Some players I said to sell high were James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Chris Carson. You can see that article here: https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-buy-lows-sell-highs/

I’m back now to share with you who is on my “Buy Low Sell High” list now.

Tua Tagovailoa

So many fantasy football players are already calling Tua a bust. He was coming off a brutal injury, a shortened off-season, and an absolutely terrible receiving corp. That’s what Tua Tagovailoa dealt with last season. Now heading into year two, Tua now has a completely revamped receiving corps that fits his skillset perfectly, and he's had the full off-season to prepare as the starter. I can see Tua Tagovailoa being that late round QB to break out this season, just like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert did previously. He is one of my favorite buy low candidates.

Joe Burrow

I’d personally like to thank Justin Herbert for taking up all the rookie spotlight last year. That allows me to swoop in and get Burrow as a fantastic value. We all know that Burrow has tremendous talent, a great receiving back in Joe Mixon, and now three incredible WRs after drafting Ja’Marr Chase. Let’s add a terrible defense to the mix. All that means fantasy goodness. I don’t care if it’s garbage time or not, Burrow is going to be playing from behind a lot this season. That could very well put into the QB1 conversation.

TJ Hockenson

I’m not saying you will get Hockenson cheap, but this may very well be the lowest price you’ll be able to buy him moving forward. He and Jared Goff have worked together a lot this offseason, and it has been showing in camp. Multiple reports say that Hockenson is clearly the #1 target in the passing game. You can’t argue that when your starting WRs are Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams. Detroit is another terrible team that will be playing from behind a lot, which is good news for Hockenson owners. After this season I believe Hockenson will be joining the “Elite TE” Tier with Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

JK Dobbins

Dobbins showed everyone last season that he was arguably the best RB in the 2020 NFL Draft. Now he's poised to take a big step forward in his second season. While we can expect big things from Dobbins and this Ravens rushing attack, fantasy owners are still worried about Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards taking work from Dobbins. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry last season, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens have been throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increases his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. I have him projected for 1132 rushing yds, 11 TDs while adding 29 rec for 289 yds, and 1 rec TD. That puts him firmly in the RB1 category. 

DJ Chark

Remember this guy? DJ Chark was a hot name this time last year. In 2019 Chark averaged 15.67 PPR points per game. That was good for 14th amongst wide receivers. Unfortunately last season Jacksonville just stunk it up. Poor play calling and quarterback play crippled DJ Chark’s ceiling. Enter Trevor Lawrence. This big-armed quarterback isn’t afraid to sling the ball. Marvin Jones will get attention lining up on the other side of the field, and Laviska Shenault is a mismatch lining up in the slot. All of this bodes well for Chark, who should see plenty of single coverage. Currently being drafted/viewed as a WR3/WR4, Chark is a perfect buy low candidate that should return solid WR2 numbers.

 

Russell Wilson

Wilson is one of the first players that come to mind when I’m thinking “Sell”. He is an incredible fantasy QB throughout the first half of the season, but he really cools off for the 2nd half of the season. This has been the case over the last couple of seasons, and that really lets you down for your fantasy playoffs. In 2020 Wilson averaged 25.75 fantasy points through week 8. He averaged 17.08 points per game from Week 9 on. In 2019 he averaged 24.94 fantasy points per game through Week 9. After that.. 13.01 points per game moving forward. You can sell him now or use him until around Week 7 to trade him for a great return.

George Kittle

I’m not saying get rid of Kittle, but I would certainly entertain offers for him. He is an absolute beast when on the field. I don’t have to give you stats. Kittle is a fantasy stud, and we all know it. So why is he on this list? Because he plays pretty rough, and I have some durability concerns when it comes to him. Plus I love selling players at their highest value and getting good players and good picks in return. I would target the Darren Waller owner in your league and see if you can get Waller in addition to another solid player, or a 1st or 2nd round rookie pick.

Darrell Henderson

Sell, sell, sell, unless you handcuffed him to Cam Akers. If not, you’re playing with house money. You already have your RBs and Henderson was a late round or waiver wire pickup. Go target the RB needy owners in your league and make out like a bandit. I’ve seen Henderson go for a 1st round rookie pick in many leagues already. If you can make that deal, do it. If not, bundle him with someone to upgrade a position. My favorite is pairing him up with a mid tier Tight End to upgrade to Darren Waller or possibly even Travis Kelce.

Aaron Jones

Think about how worried you Aaron Jones owners were with the thought of Aaron Rodgers not returning to the Green Bay Packers. Those owners dodged a bullet this season, so let’s not go through that again. Rodgers’ new contract grants him an “out” after this season if he chooses. Sure, Aaron Jones put up great numbers last season averaging 18.49 PPR points per game, but if ARod leaves after this season, Jones’ fantasy stock will plummet. My recommendation is to cash out while you’re ahead. If you’re not getting what you want right now, don’t worry. Just wait a couple of games into the season. Everyone needs RBs in fantasy. When Jones puts up some serious fantasy points, take advantage at that point and cash in. 

Diontae Johnson

Johnson is another great sell high candidate. He averaged 15.09 PPR points last season as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target. Big Ben’s arm is shot, and this may very well be his last season. With that uncertainty looming in Pittsburgh makes me want to sell Johnson at what could be his highest value. With the emergence of Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Shuster getting his targets, it’s hard to predict what kind of numbers Johnson will put up this season. Don’t forget that the Steelers want to focus a lot more on the running game after selecting Najee Harris in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft. Find the Steelers fans in your league, because there is always Steelers fans in every league, and target another solid WR on their team like Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy, or DeVonta Smith.