Atlanta Falcons

Game of Thrones: Atlanta Falcons

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Atlanta Falcons QBs: Game of Thrones

By Joe Goodwin

It is a held belief that Desmond Ridder is the heir apparent to the Matt Ryan throne in Atlanta. The question looming right now is: How long will it take before Desmond Ridder is the unquestioned starter? What if Marcus Mariota fights to remain on the throne longer than anyone expects? Yesterday, the obvious was released by Atlanta Falcons QB coach, Charles London, and Marcus Mariota was dubbed the starter. Yes, on day 1 of training camp, the veteran was allowed to sit on the throne; SHOCKING!!!!

In March, Mariota was given a 2 year, 18.75 million dollar contract to be the stop gap until the next option is ready. Then, in April, the Falcons drafted Desmond Ridder with the 76th pick in the NFL draft with the hope that he will be that option. And to be fair, Desmond Ridder was the unquestioned emotional and physical leader of a very good Cincinnati Bearcats team that has beaten up on AAC teams for years. However, the AAC is NOT the SEC, Big Ten, or even the Big 12. Desmond’s best attributes are running, and throwing on the run; sound anything like the other quarterback that was recently signed? Desmond Ridder has potential... then again, so did Mariota. One does have to wonder if this team is constructed to allow a young quarterback the ability to learn, grow, and develop.

It is not clear what vision the Falcons have for the quarterback position. The better question is: which quarterback is better equipped to sit on the throne until the next challenger arrives?

Mariota had little opportunity to play in Las Vegas; as he was witness to Derek Carr’s ascension to the upper tier of quarterbacks in the NFL. However, Mariota has a 63% completion percentage, thrown for 77 touchdowns and has rushed for 13 td’s in his NFL career. He may just have enough skill and wisdom to keep the throne longer than Ridder would want.

So, what does this all mean? One, in a redraft league, the Atlanta Falcons quarterback room is best left for possible bye week replacements (depending on matchups). Two, in dynasty leagues, Desmond Ridder is a Taxi Squad stash at best; especially if Mariota remains the starter through the season.

And, my personal belief is Desmond Ridder may never become fantasy relevant with Atlanta. This Falcons team may be epically bad….So bad, they may end up with a top 2 draft pick next year which leads into….Next year’s QB class that includes: CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, Cam Ward, and Anthony Richardson; which all currently have higher grades as a NFL quarterback prospects than Ridder.

With a loaded crop of NFL signal callers on the way, the Atlanta Falcons may be hard pressed not to draft another quarterback that will lay claim to the Matt Ryan throne. I hope you all have your Devy shares loaded with those names or a plan on securing 1st round 2023 rookie draft picks to get them. As we have learned from the Game of Thrones, “When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground.”

NFC South Predictions

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NFC South Predictions for 2022

By Tim Lazenby

The NFC South is a tale of uncertainty.  While the Buccaneers finally have Tom Brady back at the helm, there are questions for each team when it comes to the quarterback.  As we try to predict how 2022 will go for each team in the league, let’s see how things shake out for the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons

Record in 2021: 7-10-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 3-13-1

Strengths and Weaknesses

When considering the strength of the Falcons, you need look no further than first round pick Drake London and elite tight end Kyle Pitts.  This duo should be quite formidable for any opponent.  That being said, there are so many weaknesses and most of them have not even been addressed.  London and Pitts will have to strap the team on their backs for any hope whatsoever.

Situation to Watch

I can’t believe we’re living in a world where Matt Ryan is not the starting quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons.   In only three games since 2007, has anyone not named Matt Ryan started for Atlanta.  The team now turns to Marcus Mariota.  It will be fascinating to see how he does at the helm, as the Raiders have largely used him as a decoy to rush the ball.  Let’s also not forget that the Raiders just drafted Bearcats’ quarterback Desmond Ridder too.  Things just got interesting.

Conclusion

I completely forgot that this team was a 7 win team last season.  I just expected so much worse with how I view this squad.  The list of players to get excited about with this team is so much smaller than most teams and I don’t see them making much noise next season.  They are poised for a great draft pick in the loaded 2023 class.

Carolina Panthers

Record in 2021: 5-12-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 6-11-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

Matt Rhule is on his last legs as bench boss for the Panthers.  If he wants his best shot at proving the haters wrong, he has to find a way to use players like DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey, but not overuse them.  The two are the strength of the team, but defenses have figured out Rhule’s schemes very quickly.  He has to adapt and involve others in his usage in order to play meaningful games late in the season.

Situation to Watch

Just like with the Falcons, I’m super interested to see what will happen with the quarterback room in Carolina.  I’d find it exceptionally unlikely that Sam Darnold survives through 2022 in Carolina.  I just can’t wait for Matt Corral to finally get his shot and while you never know with rookies, I just have a feeling he’ll be worth a shot at commanding this team moving forward.

Conclusion

I just want to go on record and say that I don’t think Matt Rhule is a bad coach.  He’s turned underperformers into winners; just look at his time with Temple and Baylor.  That being said, unless he changes his play calling he’s not going to survive.   I worry that the Panthers will not get better under Rhule and that’s going to be the case in 2022.

New Orleans Saints

Record in 2021: 9-8-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 4-13-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

New Orleans’ receiver room was not great last season, but this year they will be light years better.  Michael Thomas will be back, Jarvis Landry has signed and Chris Olave has been drafted.  It’s hard not to be excited, but you should also be a little nervous as Thomas hasn’t caught the ball in over a year and a half and it’s from Jameis Winston instead of Drew Brees.

Situation to Watch

With a deep receiving room for the first time in a while, I’m curious to see how this will affect Alvin Kamara.  Although you want to use his otherworldly abilities over and over, he can finally be used for quality rather than quantity.  There are legal hurdles to overcome first, but this will be a situation to monitor when the time comes.

Conclusion

Like a few other teams before this one, I can’t believe how low ranked I have the Saints’ win total.  In my prediction, a five game losing streak in the middle of the season is going to derail them faster than anything.  But of all of the predictions for all of the teams, this is the one where I would bet against me.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record in 2021: 13-4-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 11-6-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

Tom Brady.  Tom Brady.  Tom Brady.  I’m not here to diminish the rest of the team because, make no mistake, they are among the best.  But if we’re being real with each other, I’m pretty sure he’s not human.  That being said, it all hinges on Brady.  This means that the team has no plan B and that can be a scary concept.

Situation to Watch

The offense for 2022 has taken a pretty big step back from 2021.  As of now, Gronkowski isn’t playing and although Cameron Brate is serviceable, it’s not the same.  Despite all his antics, Antonio Brown to Russel Gage is also a big leap.  Add to that the extended injury of Chris Godwin and it will be something to see in how Tom Brady uses these weapons on the current roster.

Conclusion

Until Tom Brady decides to retire for real, I can’t see the Buccaneers giving up their stranglehold on this division.  And until he retires I can’t see Tampa Bay as out of contention for the championship.  While I don’t see them with 13 wins in 2022, the 11 that they will get is plenty enough to go where they want.  It’s another year of Tom Brady slapping Father Time in the face for us all to watch.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

NFC South Best Values

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NFC South Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

Well, we’re well into the offseason and most of us are sitting around waiting for the rookie draft.  As we eagerly await the additions to our real life favorite teams, there is still work to be done for those of us entrenched in dynasty football formats.  Whether we’re drafting or making moves on our already established teams, savvy owners are always looking to wheel and deal for the best possible return on our investments.  Today we look at the best values in the NFC South.  Although this is looked at almost universally as the weakest division, there is always talent to be had.  And in good news, these teams offer nicer prices while the stock is down in such a poor division.

Atlanta Falcons: Quarterback - Marcus Mariota

What a weird time to be a Falcons fan.  Since almost tossing the Patriots to the curb in the Super Bowl just a few years ago, the situation has continued to spiral ever since that 2:08 remaining in the third quarter.  The team continued to crumble as they lost long time legend Julio Jones.  And now lifelong Falcon, Matt Ryan has packed his bags.  The situation is uncharted and now Marcus Mariota takes the helm in this desolate land.  With so few options to utilize his talents, is there a point in attempting to claim Mariota for your own?  I believe so.

Sure, Calvin Ridley is suspended and at this point Olamide Zaccheaus is arguably the top option.  And it is also true that 31 year old “wideback” Cordarrelle Patterson is leading this rushing attack.  Also, the offensive line and defense leave much to be desired, but that’s exactly why you need to move on Mariota.  He isn’t near one of the best options at the position in the NFL, but the price is fantastic.  With so little to turn to in Atlanta, Mariota will rely on his legs for any chance of success and in fantasy, that’s a key element to quarterback success probability.  It seems like he’s been in the league forever, but the former 2nd overall pick is still only 28, leaving the team plenty of time to build around him.  If he sticks around long term, this dirt cheap option among his position is well worth paying for.

Carolina Panthers: Running Back - Chuba Hubbard

It’s very strange in a way to put Chuba Hubbard on this list.  For the most part, his value is almost nothing as Christian McCaffrey is one of the most elite options at not only his position, but all of fantasy overall.  While McCaffrey is on the field, any other Carolina running back is obsolete.  But here’s the kicker: we all know McCaffrey is a constant injury risk.  Either through his usage or through his natural body, or possibly both, he’s shown in the NFL that he will always be an injury risk.  So, it does make sense to want Hubbard on your team, even if he is warming the bench.  But aside from that, there is even more reason to chomp at the bit for Chuba.

As I said before, Hubbard performed admirably in McCaffrey’s absence.  As the season wore on, he gained more and more confidence and his game showed it for fantasy managers.  But, I think we’re blind if we don’t see the possibility of value even with McCaffrey on the field.  Matt Rhule is on a short leash to be sure.  He simply has to adapt his strategy for long term life with the Panthers.  As much as you want McCaffrey on the field for every play, I think it’s time to limit his usage.  This would extend his life and with Chuba showing he can be leaned on in some capacity, this makes complete sense.  Invest in Chuba while he costs next to nothing even to sit and do nothing.

New Orleans Saints: Running Back - Alvin Kamara

Warning: I know there are about to be torches and pitchforks coming my way, so if you’re near me, take cover.  Why would I put Alvin Kamara on this list on dynasty discounts?  He is the most expensive player by a country mile in this set of articles.  And while I know I look crazy, there are valid reasons why he is the player of choice in New Orleans.  Grab a seat and let me list them and then, if you still disagree, you can come at me.

Firstly, the New Orleans Saints lack guaranteed talent, so any player I could choose is too much of a gamble.  I’d be tempted to put Michael Thomas here, but if we’re being honest, he won’t be near the man he was.  Jameis Winston is no slouch, but he’s also not in the same stratosphere as Drew Brees.  Alvin Kamara is also 26, so many managers will be looking to unload this “senior citizen” at the position.  But, more than anything, last year was not a success to many.  I believe he performed as well as he could with what happened last year, but it’s hard for many to overlook his “regression”.  If I can get him for anything less than his normal value, it’s a good buy.  I wrote a dynasty dilemma advising to hold, but it’s now time to buy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Quarterback - Kyle Trask

Oh Tom Brady… There are no words.  I can’t recall a time where there were so many emotions attached to a player in real life and fantasy alike in such a short amount of time as that of Brady.  The man retires while still under contract and managers panic.  Then, once the waters had settled, he unretired and caused even more panic as many managers picked him up for free.  For the quick clickers, many claimed Kyle Trask for next to nothing only to see his value plummet to zero.  But, going for Kyle Trask now is still very wise.  He’s also the best value for the Buccaneers right now.

While his value this season will amount to nothing, let’s not forget that Tom Brady will be 45 heading into next season.  And while Tom Brady is an anomaly when it comes to age, even the great TB12 will eventually age like normal people.  It’s only so long until another takes the helm in Tampa Bay.  There are some like me who believe in Kyle Trask, but many think that Tampa Bay will employ someone else as the starter once Brady actually retires.  You need to grab hold of Trask now that he amounts to almost nothing to many managers.  He may in fact not work out, but I want to secure an exit strategy and so should you.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Bob Miller’s 2021 NFL Mock Draft

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by Bob Miller

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence (QB - Clemson)

Do I really need to give a reason? He's the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Done.

2. NY Jets - Zach Wilson (QB - BYU)

Wilson's athletic ability, accuracy from the pocket and on the run, and leadership makes him a no brainer here for the Jets.

3. San Francisco 49ers - Justin Fields (QB - Ohio State)

The 49ers play Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray twice a year. They know what kind of a problem that type of quarterback is to defend. San Francisco decides that they need one of those QBs as well.

4. Denver Broncos - Trey Lance (QB - North Dakota State) Trade w/ Atlanta

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a trade! Atlanta trades the 4th pick to the Denver Broncos. After Denver failed to trade for Deshaun Watson, they decide that they won't fail again. They move up to get the their man, a mobile quarterback with a big arm for those cold games. Trey Lance fits that perfectly. Teddy Bridgewater is not their future, Trey Lance is.

5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja’Marr Chase (WR - LSU)

Lots of mock drafts have Oregon LT Penei Sewell going here to the Bengals. Not mine. Ja'Marr Chase is the undisputed #1 wide receiver in this draft. Tackle is deeper is this draft than the past few years. They'll get one in the 2nd or 3rd. Cincinnati just can't pass on the opportunity to reunite Joe Burrow and his favorite WR. 

6. Miami Dolphins - Kyle Pitts (TE - Florida)

The Dolphins are thrilled to get Kyle Pitts. This once in a generation TE talent is just what they need to ensure that Tua Tagovailoa has every opportunity to succeed.

7. New England Patriots - Mac Jones (QB - Alabama) Trade w/ Detroit

We have our 2nd trade of the day! Detroit has been targeting WR Jaylen Waddle here for quite some time, but New England makes an offer that Detroit can't refuse. The Patriots get their guy! Jones needs the right situation to be successful in the NFL. What better situation to be in than being coached by Bill Belichick.

8. Carolina Panthers - Penei Sewell (LT - Oregon)

Sewell has dropped far enough. Carolina is in desperate need of a LT. Sewell starts day one and is the staple of their offensive line for the next decade.

9. Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Surtain II (CB - Alabama)

Defense is the priority for Atlanta. They traded back from pick #4 knowing that they were going to get one of the best corners available. They just happen to land the absolute best corner in this year's draft.

10. Dallas Cowboys - Jaycee Horn (CB - South Carolina)

Dallas fans are left disappointed after Patrick Surtain II gets sniped the pick before them. With cornerback being a major priority they take the best corner available. Horn is fast, physical, and will step in and start day one.

11. NY Giants - Jaelan Phillips (EDGE - Miami)

Phillips is arguably the most talented edge rusher in this class. He has had some injuries but is absolutely worth taking at pick #11. He will fill the void needed since Jason Pierre-Paul left years ago.

12. Philadelphia Eagles - Devonta Smith (WR - Alabama)

A dream come true for Philadelphia Eagles fans. They are in dire need for a WR, so what better than the unstoppable Heisman Trophy Winner. He is a bit undersized, but he's played that way his entire career. Congrats to Jaylen Hurts on getting a shiny new toy.

13. LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater (LT - Northwestern)

Los Angeles failed to land LT Orlando Brown Jr. from the Ravens. They didn't want to give what Baltimore was asking, because they knew they could land their franchise LT in this draft. Slater will be a very good left tackle in the NFL protecting Justin Herbert's blind side for years to come.

14. Minnesota Vikings - Kwity Paye (EDGE - Michigan)

Minnesota doesn’t have a second-round pick this year, so trading back is definitely a possibility. Adding a pass-rusher with this type of agility and strength opposite of Danielle Hunter may be just too hard to pass up.

15. Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle (WR - Alabama)

How about that. Detroit trades back with the hopes that Waddle would still be available, and he is. Waddle is a weapon that Detroit will use in many different ways. With the loss of Kenny Golladay via free agency, Waddle will targeted early and often.

16. Arizona Cardinals - Caleb Farley (CB - Virginia Tech)

With a glaring hole in the secondary left by Patrick Peterson, Arizona has to walk out of the first two rounds with a CB. Farley would have been a top-10 pick, but has fallen a bit due to the back injury concerns. Arizona believes that the reward outweighs the risk here.

17. Las Vegas Raiders - Micah Parsons (LB - Penn State)

This just makes too much sense. The Raiders need major help at linebacker, and Parsons is the best LB in this draft. Character issues prevents Parsons from being taken in the top 10, but that's not a concern for GM Mike Mayock. Jon Gruden may hurt himself running to the phone to call in this pick.

18. Miami Dolphins - Azeez Ojulari (EDGE - Georgia)

Azeez Ojulari is an edge defender with incredible speed and explosiveness. His upside is just to good for Miami to pass up.

19.Washington - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB - Notre Dame)

Washington is very thin at LB. JOK is an extremely fast linebacker that can line up against slot receivers and deliver a big pop to outside runs. This combined with his leadership makes this a big get for the Football Team.

20. Chicago Bears - Christian Darrisaw (LT - Virginia Tech)

Chicago considers going with WR Rashod Bateman here, but LT is a bigger need for the Bears. Darrisaw is a top tier OT, and is too good of a value here to pass up. Chicago can grab a WR in the next couple of rounds.

21. Indianapolis Colts - Alijah Vera-Tucker (OT – USC)

Left Tackle is by far the biggest need for the Colts, and Vera-Tucker is a versatile, athletic, and strong lineman that can line up anywhere. That won't matter as the Colts will plug him in at LT immediately.

22. Tennessee Titans - Rashod Bateman (WR - Minnesota)

The Titans "had" 2 major needs: Pass rush and wide receiver. They addressed the pass rushing need via free agency by signing Bud Dupree and Denico Autry. Now they need to replace the hole at WR with Corey Davis leaving for New York. They get a solid replacement in Rashod Bateman.

23. NY Jets - Greg Newsome (CB- Northwestern)

Cornerback is a major weakness for the Jets. Head Coach Robert Saleh is going to be thrilled that he lands a talent such as Newsome here.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Gregory Rousseau (EDGE - Miami)

Pittsburgh has to replace EDGE with the loss of Bud Dupree. Rousseau is an absolute freak. He is 6'6/260 and has incredible reach. He has tremendous length for the position, and he's still building out his frame. He is still a little raw, but his upside is amazing.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig (S - TCU)

The best safety in this draft falls to the team that needs him the most. Jacksonville can use quite a bit of help on defense, and they get it here. Moehrig has great acceleration and closes on the ball quickly. He's a playmaker that Jacksonville desperately needs.

26. Cleveland Browns - Zaven Collins (LB - Tulsa)

Collins is a big, physical, and mobile linebacker that covers the middle of the field. He is fantastic against the run, which Cleveland will need to help them get over the hump against teams like Baltimore. He fills a need for Cleveland.

27. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Tryon (EDGE - Washington)

Baltimore has 3 holes to fill: EDGE, OT, and WR. Joe Tryon has elite upside as a pass rusher and will make an immediate impact for the Ravens. He opted out of the 2020 season, but his 2019 tape is fantastic. He has the potential to produce double digit sacks his rookie year in that Baltimore defense.

28. New Orleans Saints - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB - Florida State)

We all know about the Saints' salary cap situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans trade back here, but their secondary is the top priority. They are in bad shape behind Marshon Lattimore, so drafting Samuel here makes all the sense in the world.

29. Green Bay Packers - Terrace Marshall (WR - LSU)

It's no secret that Green Bay needs help at WR behind Davante Adams. Marshall has size, speed, and great hands. He is a big target that is a mismatch for opposing corners. He will be a welcomed addition to the Packers offense.

30. Buffalo Bills - Joseph Ossai (EDGE - Texas)

I almost went with Najee Harris here, but EDGE is a bigger need for this team. They can get a RB in the next rounds. Ossai has a high motor and  high upside. He has great size and a very strong lower body. He is built for the NFL, and should be a solid EDGE defender that the Bills need.

31. Baltimore Ravens - Teven Jenkins (OT - Oklahoma State)

The Ravens were really hoping that Rashod Bateman or Terrace Marshall would fall to them here, but unfortunately that doesn't happen.  Rumor is the Ravens are shopping this pick. I'm 50/50 on the them trading back, because they already have 9 picks. With that being said they draft Teven Jenkins, a big, nasty RT with incredible size and strength. He's an elite pass protector and a fantastic run blocker. He fits right in where Orlando Brown left off.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jayson Oweh (EDGE - Penn State)

Jason Pierre-Paul isn't getting any younger, and Oweh will be a great replacement when the time comes. He has a ton of talent but has a bit to learn. He lands in the perfect situation in Tampa. He can be a situational player for now and learn from two great pass rushers in JPP and Shaq Barrett.

 

I want to give a special thanks to @McManusDesigns, @SwapKingdom, @SchapDesign, @Golden.GRFX, @SnaggyGFX, and @DesignedbyFranco for the awesome jersey swaps!

You can follow me on twitter at @BaltimoreBobFF

 

 

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: 2020 Week 2

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Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into the NFL match-ups and how they will affect your starting lineups. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Christian McCaffrey are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part, these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc. 

Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ben Roethlisberger started off with a very shaky week 1 against the Giants, but was significantly better as the game went on. This was Big Ben’s first game back from his 2019 season ending elbow injury and he completed 21-of-32 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns. This week he plays a banged up Broncos defense who is without star pass rusher Von Miller (ankle) and likely cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder). Big Ben has also been much better at home than on the road. Over the last 8 full games he played at Heinz Field, Big Ben has been averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. He has the potential to finish as a top 10 quarterback this week.

Tom Brady finished last week with 239 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good enough for 20.5 fantasy points. The Saints were a tough matchup for Brady as they typically are for most quarterbacks. This may be due to the Saints returning most of their starters on defense from last year. This week Brady plays the Panthers who are decimated on defense after losing 7 starters in the offseason including start linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their top cornerback, Donte Jackson, also suffered an injury week 1. With Mike Evans back to full health, expect Brady to put up QB1 numbers this week.

Philip Rivers had himself a solid game week 1 against the Jaguars, finishing with 363 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. This week he plays the Vikings who’s defense looked horrible in week 1. The Vikings are playing without stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter as well as without 5 of last year’s starters on defense. The Colts offensive line should be able to protect Rivers and provide him ample time in the pocket. My expectation for Rivers is a high-end QB2 finish.

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times, fumbled twice (lost one) against Washington last week while also throwing 2 interceptions. Wentz did all of that against an average Washington defense and this week he plays the Rams whose defense is much better. Aaron Donald and that defensive line brought pressure to Dak Prescott all game last week even though that Dallas offensive line is considered to be one of the best in the league. The Rams now face an offensive line that has had multiple injuries to their starters. Besides that, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give Wentz nightmares when throwing the ball outside. I have Wentz as a low end QB2 this week.

Drew Lock will undoubtedly have great fantasy value going forward, but not this week. Courtland Sutton is expected to play against the Steelers this week after missing week 1 with a shoulder injury, though he certainly will not be 100% ready. This Steelers defense is legit. In the last 11 games, no quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points against this defense. If you are playing the streaming game at QB, this is the week to pivot from Drew Lock and look elsewhere.

Teddy Bridgewater finished with 270 yards and a touchdown in last week's game, good enough for 19.4 fantasy points. However, most of Bridgewater’s points came from a 75-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. This week he plays the Buccaneers who held Drew Brees to just 160 passing yards. This Bucs defense is significantly better than the Raiders and I expect Bridgewater to have low-end QB2 numbers this week.

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery looked very good against the Lions week one with 13 carries for 64 yards and 1 reception for 10 yards. Now he gets to play the Giants who gave up 113 yard to a backup running back in Benny Snell week 1. Montgomery was coming off a groin injury to start week 1 but will be fully healthy going into this week. While Tarik Cohen is a good running back, he is mostly considered to be a pass catching back and will not vulture away Montgomery’s goal-line opportunities. I have Montgomery as a mid-end RB2 this week.

Ronald Jones looked fast and explosive week 1 against the Saints where he totaled 82 yards from 17 carries and 2 receptions. Jones played 33 snaps compared to 9 for Leonard Fournette. Most importantly though, Jones got two carries inside the 10-yard line while Fournette did not get any. This week he plays the Panthers who may have the worst run defense in the NFL. Josh Jacobs torched them last week for 139 total yards and 3 touchdowns. In a game where the Buccaneers are heavy favorites (8.5), expect them to be in a positive game script. Jones should be considered as a RB2 with RB1 upside.

Nyheim Hines had himself a week 1 most people did not expect. Everyone was excited for Jonathan Taylor but it was Hines who stole the show. He finished with 8 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown as well as 7 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Philip Rivers kept Hines involved all game long. I expect Taylor and Hines to be similar to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler of last year except Taylor and Hines have a much better offensive line. I foresee Hines finishing as a RB3 with a solid floor this week. 

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

Melvin Gordon had himself a great game week 1 with 86 total yards and a touchdown for 14 fantasy points. He looked good throughout but was most productive when Phillip Lindsay went out with an injury. This week he plays the Steelers who completely shut down the Giants run game last week. Saquon Barkley, arguably the best running back in the league, only had 6 yards on 15 carries. Gordon is going to be playing on the road on a short week against one of the best defenses in the league. Benching Melvin Gordon is going to be difficult, but expectations should be lowered on what he can do. I have Gordon as a RB3 this week.

James Robinson was the only running back in week 1 to have 100% of his team’s running back carries. He finished the day with 90 total yards and a reception. While Robinson played well in his first NFL game, the Jaguars ran the fewest plays in the NFL with 47. Robinson will be facing a better defense in Tennessee than he saw last week, which means the Jaguars might be playing from behind. Chris Thompson being the pass catching back also hurts Robinson. I expect him to finish as a RB4 with limited upside.

Sony Michel led the Patriots running backs in carries with 10 last week. He had 37 rushing yards and a touchdown to go along with it. While Sony scored 9 fantasy points, he is not to be trusted in your lineups. The Patriots involved multiple running backs and Cam Newton had 15 carries and 2 touchdowns. Sony may have the goal line work locked down, but Cam Newton will surely vulture some away. The entire Patriots backfield should be under a wait and see approach until we see more. Fade Sony this week and consider him as a low-end RB4.

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Diontae Johnson saw a team high 10 targets week one and caught 6 of them for 57 yards. He also had a 31% target share. This week he will face the Broncos defense and the expectation is for star cornerback A.J. Bouye to sit out due to a separated shoulder suffered in week 1. The Broncos secondary allowed Corey Davis 101 yards and 7 receptions. Diontae Johnson is much better than Corey Davis and I expect him to finish as a high end WR3 with incredible upside.

T.Y. Hilton had a subpar game against the Jaguars last week. He had a team high 9 targets but finished with only 4 receptions for 53 yards due to two drops in the fourth quarter. The high target count suggests that Rivers is comfortable throwing to Hilton especially when it matters most. Hilton plays the Vikings this week that just got cooked by the Packers. All three of the Packers starting wide receivers scored touchdowns last week and I can see this as a big week for T.Y. and the entire Colts team. Hilton will be a high end WR3 with a safe floor this week. 

Michael Gallup had three catches last week for 50 yards against the Rams. It would have been closer to 100 receiving yards for the game if not for a very questionable offensive pass interference call. This week the Cowboys play the Falcons who were torched last week by the Seahawks. This is one of the highest over/under of the week and I am expecting a complete shootout in Dallas. Gallup should be viewed as a high end WR3 with upside.

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Courtland Sutton missed all of week 1 with a shoulder injury he sustained in practice. Sutton has a lot of draft capital as most people drafted him in around the 6th round if not earlier, but this is not the game you start Sutton. Sutton is expected to play this week against the Steelers, but he certainly will not be 100%. Besides that, Sutton does not travel into the slot very often, which means he will be matched up with one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Joe Haden. I am staying away from Sutton this week and would not feel comfortable using him as anything more than a low-end WR3 at best.

Robby Anderson turned 8 targets into 6 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown last week. Truthfully though, he was less impressive than his stat line suggests. Anderson caught a 75-yard touchdown, which made up for nearly all of his fantasy production. The touchdown was due to the safety undercutting the ball and led to an easy score. The Buccaneers locked Michael Thomas down last week for only 3 receptions and 17 yards before he went down with an injury. I anticipate Robby Anderson being a very boom or bust WR4.

Sammy Watkins has a tendency to show up in games and then disappear for the next few weeks. Do not be fooled by what he did to bottom 10 defenses like the Texans last week. Besides Tyreek Hill, it is nearly impossible to decipher which Chiefs wide receiver will produce in a given week. This week Watkins plays the Chargers who may have the best cornerbacks in the league between Chris Harris Jr., Casey Hayward, and Desmond King. Fade Watkins this week as he is a very risky WR4.

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Jared Cook should be in everyone’s lineup this week. Cook had a great game last week with 5 receptions for 80 yard. With Michael Thomas expected to be out this week, Brees will lean on the veteran and provide him with more opportunities than before. Cook also has a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week who ranked second last year in touchdowns given up to tight ends. Expect Cook to be a TE1 this week with top 3 potential.

Dallas Goedert was by far the Eagles best player week 1 against Washington. Goedert finished the game with 8 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown. While Zack Ertz is the official starter, the Eagles run a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends). Goedert played 81% of snaps compared to Ertz who played 85%. Both of these tight ends should be started, as the Eagles do not have many other options to throw to. Goedert is a TE1 with upside. 

Hayden Hurst turned 5 targets into 3 receptions for 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. Even though that is not a good line, Hurst played on 78% of snaps and ran a route on 81% of Matt Ryan’s drop-backs. This week he plays a Cowboys defense who allowed the third most points to tight ends last year and just lost linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to a broken collarbone last week. Expect Hurst to be a low end TE1 in one of the highest over/under games of the week.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Rob Gronkowski on paper is the Buccaneers starting tight end, but it did not appear that way week 1 against the Saints. Gronk was out targeted 6 to 3 by O.J. Howard who had his first touchdown with Brady. Gronk has Brady’s trust, but he has not played football in over a year and the last season he played was not a productive one. There are so many mouths to feed in the offense and I predict that Gronk will be the last one to eat.

Jimmy Graham looked every bit his age against the Lions week 1. While he had 25 yards and a touchdown, Graham looked noticeably slower. Graham plays the Giants this week who allowed Eric Ebron just one catch for 18 yards last week. Ebron at this stage in his career is much younger, quicker and faster than Graham. Graham will most likely be covered by safety Jabrill Peppers who plays physical and will not allow Graham to push him around. Peppers has not allowed a touchdown to tight ends since joining the Giants last year. I expect Graham to be a very boom or bust player this week.

Evan Engram has been considered a top 10 tight end ever since his breakout rookie year. Since then, injuries have caused inconsistency and uncertainty even when he is on the field. There were also rumors in the offseason that the Giants were looking to trade him. After last week's game against the Steelers, maybe the rumors were true. Even though Engram was targeted 7 times, he only had two receptions for 9 yards. This week he faces the Bears who allowed just two tight ends over 50 receiving yards last year. Engram has the potential to produce each and every week purely based on targets. But until we see more consistency from him and the Giants offense, he should be sat in your lineups.

 

It’s In The Cards

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It’s In The Cards

By Matt Kelley

The Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, L.A. Rams, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all had a  common thread when it came to fantasy WR production last season. Do you know what it was?  They all sustained two top 24 fantasy wide receivers. Five teams accomplished this in 2018 as well. So what leads to the ability for these teams to produce multiple top-end fantasy wide receivers, and what new team has the chance to provide this fantasy value this season? Let's take a look...

Pass Volume:

Of the four teams above, three of them were in the top-5 of pass attempts in the NFL last season. The lone team not in there was Detroit who finished with the 16th most pass attempts per game (35.7); 4 attempts less per game than Tampa Bay (39.4). Matthew Stafford only started eight games for the Lions before falling victim to a back injury. Through eight games, Stafford averaged about 36.4 pass attempts per game. While Stafford wasn’t throwing at a considerably higher pace, it’s likely the Lions would have thrown more in general if not for having to turn to David Blough and Jeff Driskel.  

Targets: 

The breakdown of targets for the players inside the top-24 WRs on these teams is as follows:

Atlanta Falcons: 

Calvin Ridley: 93 targets, 17.7% target share, 63 receptions

Julio Jones: 157 targets, 25.7% target share,99 receptions

Detroit Lions: 

Kenny Golladay: 116 targets, 21.1% target share, 65 receptions

Marvin Jones: 91 targets, 20.2% target share, 62 receptions

Los Angeles Rams: 

Cooper Kupp: 135 targets, 21.8% target share, 94 receptions

Robert Woods: 139 targets, 23.4% target share, 90 receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 

Chris Godwin: 121 targets, 22.2% target share, 86 receptions

Mike Evans: 118 targets, 23.8% target share, 67 receptions

The team most unlikely to repeat in this group based on targets is Detroit. While both players are seeing a great target %, the low receptions mean they’ll need to make up for reception totals in half and full PPR settings in an effort to repeat. Additionally, Davante Adams, Odell Beckham Jr, and Tyreek Hill all finished outside of the top-24 last season, largely due to injury. There’s a strong chance those WRs find their way back inside the top-24, provided they have healthy seasons. Second year WRs D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown, and Terry McLaurin are all also threats to bolster their way into the conversation. 

Defense:

The more points a defense allows, the more an offense has to go back onto the field. Pretty simple. So for fantasy purposes, give us some bad defenses, some negative game scripts, and let those passes fly. All four teams mentioned above were in the bottom half of the league in points given up. While Tampa’s defense could improve as it’s unlikely Tom Brady throws for 30 interceptions...a la Jameis Winston, the efficiency should skyrocket and there will be enough NFC South shootouts to keep both Evans and Godwin well fed. 

What team can find their way into this list for 2020?

Arizona Cardinals: 

                   

The Arizona Cardinals acquired Pro Bowl WR DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. Hopkins has seen 150 targets in each of the last five seasons. Yes, this is a different offense, however Arizona let up the 28th most points in the league, and they’ll need to throw to get back into games. While the Cardinals only threw the 18th most pass attempts in the league last season, 2nd year QB Kyler Murray should take a step forward in terms of taking less sacks, being more efficient, and seeing offensive drives continue, thus pass attempts will go up. 3rd year WR Christian Kirk fits the bill to join Hopkins as a top-24 WR. Kirk saw 108 targets for a 24.5% target share last season. With the addition of Hopkins, he’ll no longer need to operate as the team's WR1. While he may lose part of that target share % with Hopkins being a target hog, there will be plenty of volume and more quality targets for Kirk as Hopkins will likely draw top coverage. Kirk had 11 redzone receptions last season, 9th most in the NFL. He’s already a trusted target for Murray in the most important part of the field and is a great candidate to see a positive bump in touchdowns. Kirk is a steal right now in drafts going as WR38 and pick 95 overall in PPR leagues. Look for the Cardinals duo to join the ranks of the best fantasy WR tandems in the league.