Antonio Gibson

Dynasty Dilemma: Antonio Gibson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Antonio Gibson

By Tim Lazenby

 

There’s a lot of smack talk going on right now about Antonio Gibson. At the same time, there’s a lot of praise being sung for rookie, Brian Robinson. While Robinson is quite an intriguing player, it says a lot when people are suggesting to throw away Gibson, who this time last season, was one to hold on to for dynasty success. It’s always hard to know which way to go with certain players in fantasy football, especially in dynasty, and Antonio Gibson certainly isn’t making things easy. I find it very pressing to talk about the dynamic running back from Washington once again and decide what to do with him.

Should I stay or do I go now with Antonio Gibson?

 

Coach Ron Rivera once heralded Gibson as a player like Christian McCaffrey by saying, “He's a little bit bigger than Christian, but he's got a skill-set like Christian”. How things have changed. Needless to say, if we believed half of what’s being said online, Gibson is now less valuable than the waterboy. Cutting through the gibberish of beat reporters and coach speak can be taxing, but at some point we have to see the storm coming. Perhaps it’s time to get something for Gibson while we can.

 

Other Backs in the Room

The storm watch was alerted when J.D. McKissic was brought back in on a two year deal. Not only that, but it was for more money than some realize. If you didn’t know, McKissic is the 19th highest paid running back this year and that’s no small amount of change for a backup. And while it’s essential to have a good backup, the semi pricey deal, combined with his solidified role leaves many managers worrying about the role that Gibson will actually play in this offense moving forward.

It also doesn’t help Gibson’s case that Washington used their third pick to select the sixth running back off the board in this past draft in Brian Robinson. The Commanders certainly had many needs and using such a high pick on what many thought was one of the stronger parts of Washington’s roster can be a cause for concern for Gibson shareholders. It is true that Brian Robinson can’t do all the things Gibson can, but when you pair him with J.D. McKissic, does it leave Gibson expendable?

 

Ball Control Issues

Last season, Antonio Gibson had a lot of difficulty keeping the ball in his hands. And when I say he had trouble, it may be an understatement. Of all non-quarterbacks, Gibson led the entire league in fumbles last season and of all that he fumbled, he only recovered two of them. And while fumbles can be forgiven to some extent at times, there is a limit of leniency in this regard. The Commanders ranked in the bottom half of the league in touchdowns in 2021, and in rushing touchdowns, it was even worse. With a hard enough time hitting paydirt as it is, can the Commanders really trust Gibson to hold on to the football moving forward?

While fumbling is bad enough, there’s a larger picture on display here. Antonio Gibson had a hard time while the ball was in the air too. While it’s true he had two more games played and more targets thrown his way last year than he did as a rookie, it is quite troublesome that his drop rate went up to a staggering 11.5%. He also dropped three times as many passes last season as he did in 2020. If these issues were to arise for a veteran, you could chalk it up to any number of reasons, but in only his second season, the ice is thin indeed for Antonio Gibson.

 

 

I’ve painted a pretty bleak picture for poor Antonio Gibson here, but there are always two sides to the story. After only two seasons in the NFL, there’s still a lot of tread left on those tires. Shouldn’t we kick them again before we just scrap them? And while he’s had his issues, which I’ve already gone over, no one can deny the talent that the man possesses. Many will lead you to believe it’s all over, but here’s some food for thought to make you wonder if the rocky waters are not so rocky after all.

 

Ron Rivera

Ron Rivera is one of the more stoic coaches in the league, but players and fans should know what he’s about. It may seem to many that Gibson’s days are numbered, but Rivera’s coaching history should prove otherwise. As a head coach, he’s only twice yielded less than 50% of his running backs’ total rushing attempts to his lead back. Once was when Jonathan Stewart was coming back from injury and once was in Gibson’s rookie season. And half the time, he gives his lead back 60% or more of the rushing opportunities. Rivera is not one to showcase a room of backs; instead, he focuses on one as the main guy. And while that can be scary if he’s moved on from Gibson, don’t fool yourself into thinking Robinson is ready to shoulder that kind of load.

Underrated Talent

The list of running backs with the ability and talent of Antonio Gibson is not a lengthy one. Last season, despite the drama, Gibson ranked fourth in rush attempts and second in rush attempts on first down. He also ranked 11th among starting running backs in targets, despite McKissic taking many of those opportunities away. He also ranked 5th in receiving touchdowns among running backs last year.

But as impressive as he is among other running backs in the league, he is one of the most valuable players to his own team. He had the second most receiving touchdowns on his team, with only two less than Terry McLaurin. In fact, he accounted for almost one third of his team’s entire touchdown total in 2021. He also accounted for 74% of the Commanders’ running backs' red zone attempts. There aren’t many that can boast that level of importance in the red zone.

 

It’s pretty easy to fall victim to the narrative of “What have you done for me lately”, when it comes to the National Football League. Each year new superstars emerge to take the place of those who you thought had their position cemented for years to come. The situation in Washington is tense, make no mistake, but that doesn’t mean every doom and gloom report comes to fruition.

Bottom line, we don’t know for sure how this running back situation will pan out in Washington, but he is still the starter. I want to share some recent real life straight up trades that I’ve seen for Antonio Gibson just today that would have been instantly rejected this time last season:

Antonio Gibson for Kadarius Toney
Antonio Gibson for Kareem Hunt
Antonio Gibson for Chase Edmonds

And while there are hundreds more and even more complicated ones, this tells me one thing: Now’s the time to move on Antonio Gibson. The value for him right now is fantastic. In case you didn’t know, Gibson has only been playing the position since partway through his last year in college. We had to expect some growing pains, so I am completely fine with some struggles here and then in his first two years on a bad team.

But the best reason to buy Antonio Gibson right now is the best reason to buy anything. FOMO. “Fear of missing out” strikes the heart of even the most iron willed manager, and it’s the job of a savvy one to take advantage. Look for those who are nervous about the unknown for Antonio Gibson and make sure he’s on your squad. And in the off chance he fails, which I don’t believe he will, the price you pay now is a forgivable loss. In one of the easiest verdicts yet:

Dynasty Dilemma: Antonio Gibson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Antonio Gibson

by Ryan Ramsarran

 

Antonio Gibson was a very interesting prospect coming into the NFL. Believe it or not, he actually started his college career off as a wide receiver! He played a lot of special teams snaps, and ran many routes as a receiver before eventually starting to get some rushing attempts as well. Gibson has shown that he can be great both as a receiver and a rusher, giving him a very enticing draft profile. Teams are finding an increasing use for hybrid RB/WR type players in today’s NFL. Players like Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, D’Andre Swift and Austin Ekeler are some of the players that are used heavily in both the passing game AND the running game. Players like these are especially valuable in PPR leagues.

 

How has he fared in the NFL so far:

In Gibson’s first season, he ran for 795 yards and 11 touchdowns, and added 247 yards through the air. Gibson was a bit inconsistent in his rookie year-finishing 18th in total rushing yards among running backs. In his second year, he improved on the ground and rushed for 1037 yards and 7 touchdowns, and added 294 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air. He capped the season off with a stellar performance where he rushed for 146 yards and a touchdown against the Giants in Week 18. Gibson is in an interesting position fantasy wise as there are a lot of reasons to both BUY and SELL him. I’m going to go through both sides of the argument and then the final verdict.

 

Gibson has proven that he can be a three-down back and saw a big increase in rushing attempts from 12.1 attempts per game in 2020 to 16.1 attempts per game in 2021. A big part of Gibson’s struggles were a product of terrible QB play. Washington’s struggles on offense as a whole had them playing in a negative game script a lot of the time. Last week the Commanders traded for Carson Wentz, and at this point, looks to be the starter come Week 1 of 2022. Although Wentz is not the greatest quarterback choice, he is definitely one of the best ones they’ve had in years. Wentz led the Eagles to a 11–2 record (before injury) back in 2017 and the Commanders are hoping for a fresh start that will help get him back to being the star that he once was. Gibson will have a lot more red zone opportunities- and rushing opportunities in general-if the offense as a whole is improved. The Commanders offense was 24th in the league in points per game (19.7) and in red zone attempts (50). Wentz led the Colts to being 10th in points per game (26.5) and 9th in red zone attempts (64) last year. Hopefully Wentz can revamp the offense which will greatly benefit Antonio Gibson. Gibson finished as the RB13 (PPR) in his rookie year and RB12 in 2021 and could very well make his way into the top-10 in 2022.

 

 

 

Gibson is a great player but he doesn’t get enough opportunities to shine. J.D. McKissic is used on a lot of the 3rd downs/passing downs and gets a lot of the receiving work. McKissic had 589 receiving yards in 2020, and was on pace for 614 receiving yards last year before missing the final 6 games of the season due to injury. In fantasy, PPR leagues especially, Gibson’s lack of opportunities in the receiving game is what is keeping him from being a true RB1. Last year, McKissic was second among running backs in fantasy points per opportunity at 1.27, whereas Gibson was 40th at 0.74. Gibson also has a problem with ball security. He had 5 dropped passes (tied for 6th among RB’s) and led all non-quarterbacks in total fumbles (6) and fumbles lost (4) last year.

 

 

2 weeks ago, J.D. McKissic agreed to a 2 year deal with the Buffalo Bills and Antonio Gibson RB1 season began! The fantasy football community was ecstatic thinking about Gibson getting a workhorse role. — Within 24 hours J.D. McKissic had a change of heart and took the exact same contract to return to the Commanders. Believe me, if McKissic did commit and sign with the Bills then this entire piece would have been about why Gibson is an absolute HUGE buy. However, I now think Antonio Gibson is a HOLD/possible sell (only for the right price) at this time. Holding him is my recommendation as he is a young and talented player and is clearly the lead back for the Commanders. With McKissic being back with the team for at least 2 more years, Gibson’s fantasy ceiling will be capped and hover around the high-end RB2/low end RB1 range. If you could sell him to someone who is willing to pay mid level RB1 value for him — do it, otherwise he is a firm HOLD.

NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We are onto our 2nd division now! We will be covering the NFC East but first here are some reminders about what my breakdowns are all about:

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys enter this season as a mouthwatering offense building off of an impressive 2019 campaign. Dallas falls into the BIG BUY category!

QB Dak Prescott: “Ladder Pick”, QB1, 6-7% auction budget, round 5. Dak will be the primary beneficiary of the gargantuan offense surrounding him. The best trio of WRs the NFL has to offer, a TE on the rise, one of the best RBs, *checks notes* oh, and Dak has immense rushing upside! Sheesh!

RB Ezekiel Elliott: RB1, 30-32% auction budget, round 1, this stud do it all 3 down back is poised to have a monster season!

RB Tony Pollard: RB 4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, this zeroRB favorite is the only competition in town behind Zeke. If Zeke were to miss time, Pollard enters high RB2 range.

WR Amari Cooper: WR1, 16-17% auction budget, round 3, the leader of the WR pack is primed for another big year even with Gallup rising and the future star CeeDee Lamb in town, I see him leading the team in targets. Having Cooper as a Best Ball target I would bring some caution to prepare for a little bit of rollercoaster ride week to week but overall he should be feasting.

WR Michael Gallup: ideal WR3 but WR2 if robust RB strategy, 5-6% auction budget, round 7-8, productive player will draw the lesser DB matchup week to week but with this offense being such a nightmare to defend I see Gallup in plus matchups week to week

WR CeeDee Lamb: WR4, 2-3% auction budget, round 11-12, what felt like a luxury pick for Dallas was actually a brilliant selection in Lamb. He can play everywhere, he’s dynamic, will contribute to opening up the offense. I hate to gush so much but there is just so much to love about this group!

TE Blake Jarwin: TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside, $1 auction stash, round 13, as the clear passing catching TE option I can see him being a chain mover and massive problem in the red zone. Picture this: goal to go…defense has line stacked anticipating Zeke run…play-action…TD Jarwin *chef’s kiss*

Philadelphia Eagles

With Carson Wentz leading the way, the Eagles offense is a BUY this season!

QB Carson Wentz: QB1, 3-4% auction budget/round 9-10, the offensive core remains intact with rookie WR additions; Wentz continues to be an under-appreciated QB for fantasy as well as in real life. He’s got a big arm, rushing upside, and the incoming rookie all have one thing in common: Speed!

RB Miles Sanders: RB1, 19-21% auction budget, late round 1/early round 2, he flashed as a rookie with impressive athleticism and pass catching ability, he will look to improve in all facets of the game especially without Jordan Howard around.

RB Boston Scott: RB5, $1 deep auction stash, end of bench RB/priority FA in shallow leagues. Since the Eagles are an offense I want pieces of, keep a close eye on Scott since he has shown that he is able to produce is this offense when given the opportunity.

WR Jalen Reagor: WR4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, versatility and speed makes him an extremely exciting prospect!

WRs DeSean Jackson (WR5, 1-2% auction budget, round 12-13) and Alshon Jeffrey (priority FA in deep leagues, purely because he is starting the year on the PUP list) are seasoned vets and have proven to be difference makers when healthy. Were Best Ball leagues made for DeSean Jackson or was DeSean Jackson made for Best Ball leagues? All I know is that Best Ball league championship trophies were named after DeSean Jackson.

TE Zach Ertz: “Ladder Pick” TE1, 9-11% auction budget, round 4 (it he lasts to round 5- I am smashing his name!), Ertz has the ability to lead the Eagles in targets, catches, and TDs. Having the speed of Reagor and Jackson will only further open things up for Ertz. He will continue to be a favorite target for chain moving and in the red zone!

TE Dallas Goedert: high TE2, 2-3% auction budget, round 13/14, a great selection if your strategy to “wait on TE” gets out of hand. He has shown to be productive even when sharing the field with Ertz, if Ertz were to miss time he instantly becomes a mid range TE1!

The Washington Football Team

I’m generally considering this offense a FADE, however I believe any player in any offense is worth keeping an eye on especially in an uncertain year such as this.

QB Dwayne Haskins: low end QB2 is a FA to watch, outside of dynasty and super flex leagues he is undraftable. We want sure things and upside in our draft. Worth keeping an eye on as a streaming option as he looks to further develop as a pro QB in a division where shoot-outs are likely week to week. The good news is he has nowhere to go but up, hopefully. Remember, he is only two years removed from setting Ohio State University records for single-season passing yards and single-season touchdowns. If your starting QBs’ bye week lands on the same week that Washington plays a division rival, that may just be a good opportunity to consider Haskins.

RB Adrian Peterson: RB4, 1-2% auction budget, round 13, Peterson (much like Frank Gore) isn’t going away. He still may have some juice left, but if Washington is frequently playing from behind (which I would think is likely) than I’m not sure how the new and improved coaching staff can justify having him on the field. I’m no NFL head coach though.

RB Antonio Gibson: RB4, 3-4% auction budget, round 9/10, for me he is the player to target in this crowded backfield. I think his skill set and inherent upside separates him from the pack. I believe he is the perfect type of RB to be used in those situations hwer Washington will be trailing in games, again which I think is likely to be often. I believe he has the ability to takeover this backfield eventually. Upside stash!

RB Bryce Love: end of bench RB5/6, I’m hoping to see the Bryce Love we saw in college, but have to see him on the field first. Border line undraftable with crowded backfield but certainly a worth a late round stash as depth bench piece, I see him more as a priority FA worth keeping a close eye on!

WR Terry McLaurin: WR2, 13-14% of auction budget, round 5, this QB proof stud looks to improve upon an already impressive rookie season. He is the bright light of an offense that has a lot to improve on with a new coaching staff.
Players to monitor: TE Logan Thomas,  WR Steven Sims and WR Antonio Gandy-Golden. I feel this is important to mention because I made the mistake of brushing off Terry McLaurin’s dominant week 1 performance against the Eagles.

My stupid brain (at the time): “Who cares? It’s Washington. Of course he lit up the Eagles, it just what WRs do to them”… BUT he went on to have a truly impressive season. Don’t repeat my mistake, I suggest you pounce if one of those guys breaks out. Steven Sims was a stud weeks 15-17. Keep an eye out.

New York Giants

The Giants are an offense I’m categorizing as NEUTRAL, this offensive core has plenty of room to grow with players that you should not shy away from nor with players worth “reaching” for considering their auction value/ADP.

QB Daniel Jones: high QB2 with sneaky QB1 upside due to his rushing ability. Good weapons surrounding him can help salvage his fantasy outlook if he struggles with turnovers, 2-3% auction budget, round 12/13

RB Saquon Barkley: RB1 (ranked RB2), 31-33% auction budget, early round 1 (chalk at 1.02), he’s does it all, he’s a stud, an exceptionally talented athlete! Quads for days!

WRs Sterling Shepard (WR4 3-4% auction budget, round 8/9), Golden Tate (WR4 2-3% auction budget, round 9/10), and Darius Slayton (WR4 2-3% auction budgets, round 9/10) make up a very nice trio of WRs for Daniel Jones. All great first guy on the bench options, very useful for injury/bye replacements with upside for more.

TE Evan Engram: TE1, 5-6% auction budget, round 7/8, as my TE6 he leads the middle tier of TEs (with Hayden Hurst and Hunter Henry), provides a lot of upside and will be a beneficiary of mismatches with the trio of WRs alongside of him.

Sleeper Files: Antonio Gibson

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Sleeper Files: Antonio Gibson

By Tommy Harvey

On the surface, the Washington Football Team has some depth at the running back position.  However, it doesn’t take much digging to realize that they have major issues at the position.  Derrius Guice was released after he was arrested on domestic abuse. That leaves Adrian Peterson, Bryce Love, Peyton Barber, JD McKissic, and Antonio Gibson.  Peterson is a future Hall of Famer, but is 35 years old.  Bryce Love was a Heisman candidate during his junior year at Stanford, but he has been injured since his senior season.  Peyton Barber has never been very effective in his NFL career.  JD McKissic is a pretty good receiving back, but has never shown the ability to be a lead back.  

That takes us to Antonio Gibson. 

Drafted out of Memphis with the 66th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Gibson was primarily a WR for the Tigers compiling 38 receptions for 735 yards.  Although, he did record 33 carries for 369 yards during his senior season.  With his ability to be a jack of all trades type of player, Washington took a chance on the 6’0” 220lb dynamo and they are converting him into a RB.  

Head Coach Ron Rivera made waves earlier this offseason when he compared Gibson to Christian McCaffrey.  CMC is arguably the best RB in the NFL and the overall #1 player in terms of fantasy football, so that comparison may seem a little over ambitious.  

But...what if?

What if Antonio Gibson is really that type of player for the team formerly known as the Redskins?  If he can prove to be a healthy, reliable, dynamic back for Washington, then you can get an absolute steal in your fantasy league.  Currently going in drafts as RB58, Gibson has MASSIVE potential to be a real sleeper this season.  With Guice being released, I’d definitely take a chance on Gibson and his 16th round ADP.  

2020 Prediction and Fantasy Outlook:

122 carries 521 yards 5 TDs

47 receptions 423 yards 3 TDs

While that might not seem like a league winner this season, he is a definite dynasty stash.  He can be used as your RB4 this season with no hesitation.

 

 

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