Amari Cooper

Dynasty Dilemma: Amari Cooper

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Dynasty Dilemma: Amari Cooper

By Steve Uetz

 

Where does talent and opportunity intersect for the purpose of fantasy football success? This is a question I have recently been asking myself regarding a Wide Receiver I have admired for a long time: Amari Cooper.

Amari Cooper is now a Cleveland Brown; a bit jarring, isn’t it? At first, it certainly was. The news of the trade between Dallas and Cleveland caught the football world by surprise, but especially because of the compensation included in the deal. Dallas shipped Cooper away for Cleveland’s 5th round pick along with a 6th round pick swap between the teams.

This figured to be a purely financial decision since Cooper was due 20 million dollars on March 20; the Browns got an absolute steal in their acquisition of Cooper. The Browns were in desperate need of a big-time WR after they released Odell Beckham Jr. in the middle of the 2021 season.

Two days after the Browns traded for Cooper, something interesting happened. Cleveland released veteran WR Jarvis Landry, paving the way for Cooper to fall into a commanding opportunity for a promising target share in the Browns passing game.

Then six days after the Cooper trade, the BIG news came! The Cleveland Browns traded for Deshaun Watson, the most prestigious and unfortunately controversial QB on the market. The bombshell trade happened just 24 hours after Baker Mayfield requested a trade after the Browns had made it clear that they were pursuing Watson.

My initial fear of Cooper losing out on quality of touches for an increased offensive target share had been put to rest overnight. This is literally the best-case scenario for Amari Cooper’s fantasy outlook. There is only one big IF hanging in the balance which brings an uneasy predicament for Cooper’s outlook. Just because Watson was successfully traded and received a hefty contract doesn’t mean that the NFL won’t punish him under the personal conduct policy. The leagues’ investigation of Watson remains ongoing.

What will that mean for Cooper’s fantasy outlook in 2022 and beyond? The intersection of Cooper’s talent and opportunity has found a new peak but questions of Watson’s availability remain; hence the dynasty dilemma.

 

 

Reasons to BUY

Amari Cooper is in the prime of his career, he will be 28 years old at the start of the 2022 season as he enters his 8th season. Over his career, he has reached 100+ targets in 6 of 7 seasons and totaled 1000+ receiving yards in 5 of 7 seasons.

The last time we saw Cooper’s new quarterback Deshaun Watson play he had three straight seasons of being a top 5 QB. In the 2020 season, Watson supported two top tier fantasy viable WRs; Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks. Fuller was well on his way to having a WR1 season before he was suspended for PEDs which caused him to miss the final five games of that season. Fellow teammate Brandin Cooks finished as a high-end WR2.

Cooper will remain the prototypical X receiver and the clear cut #1 pass-catching option in the Cleveland passing game. All these combined factors indicate that he is certainly a worthy WR target for 2022 and beyond.

 

 

Reasons to SELL

The primary scenario where I would find it to be the most advantageous to sell is if you have him rostered on a rebuilding team and are in position to flip him for max value to a contending team. Let the contending team deal with the potential Watson headache and have your team focus on the players of tomorrow.

Furthermore, I think there is a real possibility that Deshaun Watson could face punishment under the NFL’s personal conduct policy; I could imagine anywhere from 6 games to a full season. Of course, this would delay the likelihood of Cooper’s ascension to fantasy stardom. He would revert to my original outlook assessment of big talent and opportunity with decreased quality of opportunity; albeit temporarily.

 

 

VERDICT

The combination of Cooper’s age, opportunity potential, and substantial QB upgrade in Cleveland, I figure Cooper to be a dynasty buy or hold.

I see Cooper holding WR2 value with WR1 upside with Deshaun Watson leading the Cleveland offense. Even with a potentially temporary suspension for Watson, I believe in Cooper’s talent so I would be willing to buy with the expectation of a WR2 to WR3 floor.

However, if I already have Cooper rostered, I am more than happy to hold because the swing in his value has completely skyrocketed! He could very well be the piece to make a mid-tier team into a contender.

Amari Cooper is ready for launch!

 

 

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice

Dallas Cowboys 2021 Post NFL Draft Fantasy Outlook

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Dallas Cowboys 2021 Post NFL Draft Fantasy Outlook

By Tommy Harvey

2020 was supposed to be the year the Dallas Cowboys became Super Bowl contenders.  Gone was long-time head coach Jason Garrett, replaced by Super Bowl winning coach Mike McCarthy.  The Cowboys were primed to step back into the spotlight.  However, the season was an absolute disaster. Dak Prescott suffered a gruesome, season-ending ankle injury. The offensive line was constantly injured and inconsistent. Ezekiel Elliott had the worst season of his career. The defense was terrible, which led to the firing of first year defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. Possibly the worst thing for the Cowboys, was they won 3 of their final 4 games to finish 6-10. Their season ending victory over the Eagles hurt the most. 

2021 Draft Review

Heading into the final 4 games of the season, Dallas was looking at a likely top-5 draft pick. The late season victories dropped them into the 10th pick, which they eventually traded down to 12th to select LB Micah Parsons out of Penn State. The selections of CB Jaycee Horn and CB Patrick Surtain II (both a major need) directly before the 10th pick, seemingly led to the move down to 12. During the draft, the Cowboys made defense a major priority, using 8 of their 11 picks to reinforce Dan Quinn's unit. 

Highlighted by the selection of LB Micah Parsons, the Cowboys continued to fortify the defense by selecting CB Kelvin Joseph, DT Osa Odighizuwa, and LB Jabril Cox.  Offensively, Dallas picked up two linemen and WR Semi Fehoko out of Stanford.  Fehoko is a height, weight, speed guy, who could eventually work his way into the Cedrick Wilson role.

Quarterback

Dak Prescott

Going into the 2021 season, Dak Prescott is ready to return and is also $240 million richer. He signed a 6-year contract to return and is looking to pick up where he left off prior to his injury. Dak was on pace for a record-breaking season in 2020, averaging over 371 ypg. 

Obviously, circumstances dictated the amount of passing the Cowboys did. If the offensive line is healthier and plays better and if the defense doesn't put the offense in must pass positions, Dak shouldn't have to throw the ball as much. Regardless, Prescott should be considered a top-5 redraft and dynasty QB. 

2021 Early Projections:

438-640, 68%, 5,270 yards, 37 TDs, 11 INTs, 61 carries, 311 yards, 5 TDs

 

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott

There is really no other way to say it...Ezekiel Elliott had an abysmal 2020 season. He had career lows in yards (979), yards per game (65.3) yards per carry (4.0), TDs (6), and yards per reception (6.5). Last season was so bad, he ended up with less yards in 15 games played than he did in 2017 with 10 games played (6 game suspension).

The questions...Did he have a regression in skill? Did he suffer from bad offensive line play? Was he forced to see defenses that didn't respect the threat of the pass due to Dak Prescott's injury?

Whatever the answers are, Zeke needs to have a bounce back season for Dallas to contend in the NFC East.

2021 Early Projections:

298 carries, 1,281 yards, 4.3ypc, 9 TDs, 74 Targets, 58 receptions, 417 yards, 7.2ypc, 2 TDs

 

Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard is a talented backup RB. If Zeke were to ever miss any time, Pollard would definitely be a must own in fantasy leagues. 

2021 Early Projections:

100 carries, 460 yards, 4.6ypc, 3 TDs, 38 Targets, 25 receptions, 173 yards, 6.9ypc, 1 TD

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Amari Cooper

Amari Cooper is the leader of this very good and very young group of pass catchers for the Cowboys. Heading into his 7th NFL season, Cooper will still only be 27 years old. Often considered too inconsistent to be a true #1 WR, he has only had one season where he failed to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark (2017). A target monster, Cooper has seen 249 targets in his 2 full seasons in Dallas. 

Last season, Cooper amassed 92 receptions, 1,114 yards, and 5 TDs with backup QBs throwing him the ball. If Dak Prescott is fully healthy, Cooper could have a career year for the Cowboys. I would feel extremely comfortable having him as a high-end WR2 in all fantasy formats.

Early 2021 Projections:

133 Targets, 95 Receptions, 1,197 Yards, 12.6ypc, 8 TDs

 

CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb had a very solid rookie season, even without the benefit of playing with Dak Prescott for the final 11 games of the season. In his first season, Lamb was a HUGE part of the Dallas offense. He saw 111 targets, catching 74 for 935 yards and 5 TDs.  Lamb finished 2nd among all rookie WRs in receptions and yards.

Showing the obvious ability to be a top-end receiver in the NFL, look for Lamb to continue to develop into a big time target for Dak Prescott.  He has the potential to overtake Cooper as the Cowboys’ #1 WR by season’s end.  Both have high-end WR2 ability, with Lamb having WR1 upside.

Early 2021 Projections:

124 Targets, 82 Receptions, 1,074 Yards, 13.1ypc, 8 TDs

 

Michael Gallup

Michael Gallup has consecutive seasons of 100+ targets in Dallas.  Not many teams can support three WRs with over 100 targets apiece, but the Cowboys have proven able to do so.  All three Cowboys WRs are similar in what they can do, so they are all somewhat interchangeable.  With Gallup having the ability to be a free agent after the 2021 season, he will be looking to have a big season so he can cash in.  

In 2020, Michael Gallup caught 59 of 105 targets for 843 yards and 5 TDs.  His conversion rate wasn’t as high as Cooper’s or Lamb’s, partly due to being more of the deep ball and 50/50 threat.  I would imagine his 2021 would be similar to his 2020.

Early 2021 Projections:

109 Targets, 66 Receptions, 937 Yards, 14.2ypc, 7 TDs

 

Blake Jarwin/ Dalton Schultz

Blake Jarwin was one of my favorite sleeper picks last season.  I picked him to finish as a top-5 TE in 2020.  Then he tore his ACL in the first game of the season after only recording 1 catch.  Football can be a cruel game.  Jarwin was set up to be “the man” at TE after future Hall of Famer Jason Witten left for Las Vegas.  I still have extremely high hopes for the former Oklahoma State Cowboy, but he will likely share targets with fellow TE Dalton Schultz. High-end TE2 to low-end TE1 production is possible, so target him accordingly.

Schultz filled in admirably for the injured Blake Jarwin last season, recording 63 receptions on 89 targets for 615 yards and 4 TDs.  Obviously, the return of Jarwin will significantly cut into Schultz’ production, but he will still be involved.  He is probably best suited as a best ball pickup, but he could return some value as a streaming option in redraft and dynasty leagues.

Early 2021 Projections:

Jarwin - 74 Targets, 58 Receptions, 586 Yards, 10.1ypc, 5 TDs

Schulz - 52 Targets, 37 Receptions, 352 Yards, 9.5ypc, 4 TDs

 

NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We are onto our 2nd division now! We will be covering the NFC East but first here are some reminders about what my breakdowns are all about:

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys enter this season as a mouthwatering offense building off of an impressive 2019 campaign. Dallas falls into the BIG BUY category!

QB Dak Prescott: “Ladder Pick”, QB1, 6-7% auction budget, round 5. Dak will be the primary beneficiary of the gargantuan offense surrounding him. The best trio of WRs the NFL has to offer, a TE on the rise, one of the best RBs, *checks notes* oh, and Dak has immense rushing upside! Sheesh!

RB Ezekiel Elliott: RB1, 30-32% auction budget, round 1, this stud do it all 3 down back is poised to have a monster season!

RB Tony Pollard: RB 4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, this zeroRB favorite is the only competition in town behind Zeke. If Zeke were to miss time, Pollard enters high RB2 range.

WR Amari Cooper: WR1, 16-17% auction budget, round 3, the leader of the WR pack is primed for another big year even with Gallup rising and the future star CeeDee Lamb in town, I see him leading the team in targets. Having Cooper as a Best Ball target I would bring some caution to prepare for a little bit of rollercoaster ride week to week but overall he should be feasting.

WR Michael Gallup: ideal WR3 but WR2 if robust RB strategy, 5-6% auction budget, round 7-8, productive player will draw the lesser DB matchup week to week but with this offense being such a nightmare to defend I see Gallup in plus matchups week to week

WR CeeDee Lamb: WR4, 2-3% auction budget, round 11-12, what felt like a luxury pick for Dallas was actually a brilliant selection in Lamb. He can play everywhere, he’s dynamic, will contribute to opening up the offense. I hate to gush so much but there is just so much to love about this group!

TE Blake Jarwin: TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside, $1 auction stash, round 13, as the clear passing catching TE option I can see him being a chain mover and massive problem in the red zone. Picture this: goal to go…defense has line stacked anticipating Zeke run…play-action…TD Jarwin *chef’s kiss*

Philadelphia Eagles

With Carson Wentz leading the way, the Eagles offense is a BUY this season!

QB Carson Wentz: QB1, 3-4% auction budget/round 9-10, the offensive core remains intact with rookie WR additions; Wentz continues to be an under-appreciated QB for fantasy as well as in real life. He’s got a big arm, rushing upside, and the incoming rookie all have one thing in common: Speed!

RB Miles Sanders: RB1, 19-21% auction budget, late round 1/early round 2, he flashed as a rookie with impressive athleticism and pass catching ability, he will look to improve in all facets of the game especially without Jordan Howard around.

RB Boston Scott: RB5, $1 deep auction stash, end of bench RB/priority FA in shallow leagues. Since the Eagles are an offense I want pieces of, keep a close eye on Scott since he has shown that he is able to produce is this offense when given the opportunity.

WR Jalen Reagor: WR4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, versatility and speed makes him an extremely exciting prospect!

WRs DeSean Jackson (WR5, 1-2% auction budget, round 12-13) and Alshon Jeffrey (priority FA in deep leagues, purely because he is starting the year on the PUP list) are seasoned vets and have proven to be difference makers when healthy. Were Best Ball leagues made for DeSean Jackson or was DeSean Jackson made for Best Ball leagues? All I know is that Best Ball league championship trophies were named after DeSean Jackson.

TE Zach Ertz: “Ladder Pick” TE1, 9-11% auction budget, round 4 (it he lasts to round 5- I am smashing his name!), Ertz has the ability to lead the Eagles in targets, catches, and TDs. Having the speed of Reagor and Jackson will only further open things up for Ertz. He will continue to be a favorite target for chain moving and in the red zone!

TE Dallas Goedert: high TE2, 2-3% auction budget, round 13/14, a great selection if your strategy to “wait on TE” gets out of hand. He has shown to be productive even when sharing the field with Ertz, if Ertz were to miss time he instantly becomes a mid range TE1!

The Washington Football Team

I’m generally considering this offense a FADE, however I believe any player in any offense is worth keeping an eye on especially in an uncertain year such as this.

QB Dwayne Haskins: low end QB2 is a FA to watch, outside of dynasty and super flex leagues he is undraftable. We want sure things and upside in our draft. Worth keeping an eye on as a streaming option as he looks to further develop as a pro QB in a division where shoot-outs are likely week to week. The good news is he has nowhere to go but up, hopefully. Remember, he is only two years removed from setting Ohio State University records for single-season passing yards and single-season touchdowns. If your starting QBs’ bye week lands on the same week that Washington plays a division rival, that may just be a good opportunity to consider Haskins.

RB Adrian Peterson: RB4, 1-2% auction budget, round 13, Peterson (much like Frank Gore) isn’t going away. He still may have some juice left, but if Washington is frequently playing from behind (which I would think is likely) than I’m not sure how the new and improved coaching staff can justify having him on the field. I’m no NFL head coach though.

RB Antonio Gibson: RB4, 3-4% auction budget, round 9/10, for me he is the player to target in this crowded backfield. I think his skill set and inherent upside separates him from the pack. I believe he is the perfect type of RB to be used in those situations hwer Washington will be trailing in games, again which I think is likely to be often. I believe he has the ability to takeover this backfield eventually. Upside stash!

RB Bryce Love: end of bench RB5/6, I’m hoping to see the Bryce Love we saw in college, but have to see him on the field first. Border line undraftable with crowded backfield but certainly a worth a late round stash as depth bench piece, I see him more as a priority FA worth keeping a close eye on!

WR Terry McLaurin: WR2, 13-14% of auction budget, round 5, this QB proof stud looks to improve upon an already impressive rookie season. He is the bright light of an offense that has a lot to improve on with a new coaching staff.
Players to monitor: TE Logan Thomas,  WR Steven Sims and WR Antonio Gandy-Golden. I feel this is important to mention because I made the mistake of brushing off Terry McLaurin’s dominant week 1 performance against the Eagles.

My stupid brain (at the time): “Who cares? It’s Washington. Of course he lit up the Eagles, it just what WRs do to them”… BUT he went on to have a truly impressive season. Don’t repeat my mistake, I suggest you pounce if one of those guys breaks out. Steven Sims was a stud weeks 15-17. Keep an eye out.

New York Giants

The Giants are an offense I’m categorizing as NEUTRAL, this offensive core has plenty of room to grow with players that you should not shy away from nor with players worth “reaching” for considering their auction value/ADP.

QB Daniel Jones: high QB2 with sneaky QB1 upside due to his rushing ability. Good weapons surrounding him can help salvage his fantasy outlook if he struggles with turnovers, 2-3% auction budget, round 12/13

RB Saquon Barkley: RB1 (ranked RB2), 31-33% auction budget, early round 1 (chalk at 1.02), he’s does it all, he’s a stud, an exceptionally talented athlete! Quads for days!

WRs Sterling Shepard (WR4 3-4% auction budget, round 8/9), Golden Tate (WR4 2-3% auction budget, round 9/10), and Darius Slayton (WR4 2-3% auction budgets, round 9/10) make up a very nice trio of WRs for Daniel Jones. All great first guy on the bench options, very useful for injury/bye replacements with upside for more.

TE Evan Engram: TE1, 5-6% auction budget, round 7/8, as my TE6 he leads the middle tier of TEs (with Hayden Hurst and Hunter Henry), provides a lot of upside and will be a beneficiary of mismatches with the trio of WRs alongside of him.

Guess Who?!

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Guess Who?!

By Tommy Harvey

You see it all the time.  Somebody throws up stats for Player A vs Player B and expects for you to choose based on that information.  Well, guess what???  I’m going to do the same thing here, but with a more in-depth look at Players A and B and why you should target one of those players over the other.  Let’s Go!

Player A:

26 years old, 6’1” 210lbs

16 games, 119 targets (7.43 per game), 79 receptions (4.94 per game), 66% catch percentage, 5 drops, 4.2 % drop rate, 1,189 yards (74.31 per game), and 8 TDs

Player A was very much a boom or bust type of player in 2019.  He had 4 games with double digit targets, but he also had 3 games with only 2 targets...to be fair, he was injured in one of those games and only played in 4% of the offensive snaps.  He eclipsed the 100 yard mark 4 times, one of those games going over the 200 yard plateau.  On the flipside, he had 6 games of under 50 yards receiving.

Player B:

24 years old, 6’1” 198lbs

14 games, 113 targets (8.07 per game), 66 receptions (4.71 per game), 58.4% catch percentage, 11 drops, 9.7% drop rate, 1,107 yards (79.07 per game), and 6 TDs

Player B, while similar to Player A, provided slightly more consistent play.  He had 5 games with double digit targets, with a low mark of 3 targets only once.  Reaching the 100 yard mark 4 times, he also had 2 games of 98 yards.  Player B had 4 games of under 50 yards receiving.  

The Nuts and Bolts:

Did I mention both of these players play for the same team?  

In case you haven’t guessed who Players A and B are…

   Player A: Amari Cooper                                Player B: Michael Gallup

                                      

Both Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup went for over 100 yards in week 1 against the New York Giants.  While nearly identical, Gallup was seemingly slightly more productive.  Cooper had a tendency to disappear in games where he wasn’t involved in early on.  Even in the 2 weeks Gallup was out with a knee injury, Cooper only saw 15 total targets, catching 11 balls for 132 yards.

Dallas signed Cooper to a 5 year, $100 million contract with $40 million guaranteed.  If he is on the team on the 5th day of the league calendar in 2022, Cooper will be owed another $20 million.  With CeeDee Lamb being drafted with the 17th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, one has to wonder if Cooper will be around after the 2021 season.  

Michael Gallup will be a free agent after the 2021 season.  With him being 2 years the junior of Cooper, will he get the next big WR contract for the Cowboys, forcing the organization to move Cooper?  I personally think Gallup and Lamb are the future in Dallas.