AJ Brown

Dynasty Debate:  AJ Brown vs Jaylen Waddle

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Dynasty Debate:  AJ Brown vs Jaylen Waddle

 

I’ve had people ask me…

 

“What kind of separation do you have between AJ Brown and Jaylen Waddle?”

“Who would you rather have?  AJ Brown or Jaylen Waddle?”

“I know they are different types of Wide Receivers, but would you trade Waddle for AJB or vice versa?”

 

Well…I have thoughts.

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AJ Brown

 

Brown had an elite season in 2022, finishing as the overall WR6 with just over 17.5 PPG in PPR leagues.  He also had an elite target share, finishing 5th in the league with a 28.7% share on a Philadelphia Eagles team that led the NFL in WR target share at 69.5%.  Of his 145 targets, only 95 were considered “catchable”, meaning he caught 92.6% of “catchable” targets.  I believe Brown has even more upside, considering QB Jalen Hurts is emerging as one of the top Quarterbacks in the NFL, having cliimbed from 61.3 to 66.5 in completion percentage over the last two seasons.  At only 26 years old with a 25 year old QB, Brown still has several years left of high caliber football to play, as he should be entering his prime years.

With positives, there always comes negatives.  AJ Brown is not the only high-end WR in Philly.  DeVonta Smith will always eat into AJ Brown’s target share.  As awesome as Brown’s target share was last season, Smith also had a 26.9% share himself…good enough for 10th highest in the NFL.  Jalen Hurts is also a very effective runner, so he doesn’t have to remain in the pocket and look for downfield targets in order to move the offense down the field.  In 2022, Hurts ran the ball 165 times, which was most in the league for a QB.  Hurts also ran the ball nearly as many times in the Red Zone as he passed it (44 carries to 46 pass attempts), meaning AJ Brown’s RZ usage isn’t as high as what it potentially could be (7 receptions on 15 targets).  His 7 RZ receptions were 24th in the NFL and his 15 RZ targets were 17th in the league.  

 

 

Jaylen Waddle

 

Waddle has had consecutive superb seasons in Miami, even with some uncertainty at the Quarterback position.  Tua Tagovailoa has never played a full 17 game season, as he has dealt with a plethora of injuries (most notably concussions).  Despite the injury issues with Tua, Waddle has amassed 179 receptions, 2,371 yards, and 14 TDs in his two seasons with the Dolphins.  In 2022, Jaylen Waddle led the NFL with 18.1 yards per catch and was 8th in total air yards with 842 yards and 5th with 514 yards after catch.  In 2023, Miami’s QB position should be a bit more solidified, as they have signed Mike White to back-up Tagovailoa.  White was very solid in the back-up role while with the Jets and has shown he can put up big numbers (405 yards against Cincinnati in 2021, 315 yards against Chicago in 2022, and 369 yards against Minnesota in 2022).  In 2023, Waddle should remain highly productive.

Now the cons…Waddle is the WR2 in South Beach.  While Tyreek Hill is in town, Waddle will likely never surpass Hill’s production.  Waddle was 24th in the league in target share with a 24.8% share and saw his targets drop from 140 in 2021 to 117 in 2022.  His reception total also took a hit with Hill around, as he went from 104 catches in 2021 to 75 in 2022 and became much more of a field stretcher in 2022.  Waddle is also not a Red Zone threat.  He was only targeted 8 times in the RZ, finishing 58th in the league.  

 

Verdict

 

While both are highly elite Wide Receivers and I would be very happy with either guy on my roster, I lean towards AJ Brown when comparing Brown and Waddle.  Brown being paired with Jalen Hurts is much more attractive than Waddle being with Tua, who is often injured and has an uncertain future. Not to mention the fact that AJB is the WR1 in Philadelphia, while Waddle is the likely WR2 in Miami.  The age difference is a non-factor for me, as Brown is only 17 months older than Waddle.  

Recently, I have put my money where my mouth is regarding these two.  In a c2c league, I traded Penn State QB Drew Allar and Jaylen Waddle for Texas QB Quinn Ewers and AJ Brown.  I don’t necessarily have a lot of separation between Allar and Ewers of Brown and Waddle, but the allure of a better QB situation and better WR pecking order in Philly makes Brown a better fit for me.  

 

AJ Brown

Dynasty Dilemma: AJ Brown 

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Dynasty Dilemma: AJ Brown 

by Tim Lazenby

 

AJ Brown of the Tennessee Titans is one of the best players in the league at his position.  He’s got the size, speed and elusiveness that are an absolute rarity.  In many ways, this isn’t a dilemma at all with all he brings to the table, but after such a regression last season, many are perplexed at his value heading into the 2022 season.

 

The Reason to Sell

Let’s face it; last season was not a good time for AJ Brown.  Despite being in one of the best opportunities in the National Football League, Brown did many fantasy owners quite a disservice in 2021.  Virtually all his numbers took a big step down from 2020, leading us to wonder just what kind of value we actually have in the Mississippi alum.

 

The 2021 Season

Without looking at the numbers, do you have any guess where AJ Brown finished last season as a wide receiver?  The WR32; just 0.4 points above Kendrick Bourne.  To put things in perspective, in 2020, he finished as the WR12, in only his second season.  Despite only one less target from the year before, the efficiency drop was astounding.

 

Poor Quarterback Play

A receiver is only as effective as the person throwing him the ball.  In 2020, Ryan Tannehill was amazing.  He finished as QB7, ahead of the likes of Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford to name a few.  The drop off was insane.  Even with 50 more pass attempts, Tannehill threw almost 100 yards less, 36% less touchdowns and twice as many interceptions.  Notably, which were closer to his career averages.  You wonder if this is what we can expect of AJ Brown’s quarterback moving forward.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

Even some of the best players ever have the dreaded third regression.  It’s not completely unheard of to progress the first two seasons, only to dip significantly in year three.  Looking at all the reasons we love AJ Brown, is it really impossible to see him going back in the direction of the receiving elite?  Here are some supporting arguments.

 

Lack of Depth

Not to say that the Titans are lacking talent at wide receiver, but the core isn’t like some of the other division winners last season.  AJ Brown simply has a stranglehold on the target share in Tennessee.  Despite only playing 13 games, he had almost twice as many targets thrown his way than the next closest wide receiver.  Not to mention Brown lit up for twice as many big plays than his closest competitor on the team.

 

Return of the King

The dynamic in virtually every capacity changed once Derrick Henry went down in week 8 last season.  Henry only had two weeks with less than 28 rushing attempts, crossing 33 twice.  Defenses must bring so much of their focus on the King, leaving everyone else less guarded.  With Henry down, everything changed and with Henry back next season, Brown’s production can only skyrocket.  We can’t underestimate this truth.

 

Verdict

While AJ Brown may have the talent to be otherworldly, the fantasy community may be looking at him a little too fondly.  Experts consistently have him ranked right behind phenoms Chase and Jefferson, right at the top of tier 2.  I’ve yet to see him lower than 5 on any dynasty ranking chart, but is this where he should truly sit?

 

AJ Brown is not alone when it comes to valuing a player based on what he can do, rather than what he has done.  Despite finishing as WR12 in 2020, many considered him to be WR2 in dynasty.  Even with the horrendous finish last season, to rank him in the top 5, let alone 3rd is a little rich.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s a true WR1 on almost any team, but because everyone values him so highly, I’d sell due to the profit.