AJ Brown

Dynasty Dilemma: AJ Brown 

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Dynasty Dilemma: AJ Brown 

by Tim Lazenby

 

AJ Brown of the Tennessee Titans is one of the best players in the league at his position.  He’s got the size, speed and elusiveness that are an absolute rarity.  In many ways, this isn’t a dilemma at all with all he brings to the table, but after such a regression last season, many are perplexed at his value heading into the 2022 season.

 

The Reason to Sell

Let’s face it; last season was not a good time for AJ Brown.  Despite being in one of the best opportunities in the National Football League, Brown did many fantasy owners quite a disservice in 2021.  Virtually all his numbers took a big step down from 2020, leading us to wonder just what kind of value we actually have in the Mississippi alum.

 

The 2021 Season

Without looking at the numbers, do you have any guess where AJ Brown finished last season as a wide receiver?  The WR32; just 0.4 points above Kendrick Bourne.  To put things in perspective, in 2020, he finished as the WR12, in only his second season.  Despite only one less target from the year before, the efficiency drop was astounding.

 

Poor Quarterback Play

A receiver is only as effective as the person throwing him the ball.  In 2020, Ryan Tannehill was amazing.  He finished as QB7, ahead of the likes of Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford to name a few.  The drop off was insane.  Even with 50 more pass attempts, Tannehill threw almost 100 yards less, 36% less touchdowns and twice as many interceptions.  Notably, which were closer to his career averages.  You wonder if this is what we can expect of AJ Brown’s quarterback moving forward.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

Even some of the best players ever have the dreaded third regression.  It’s not completely unheard of to progress the first two seasons, only to dip significantly in year three.  Looking at all the reasons we love AJ Brown, is it really impossible to see him going back in the direction of the receiving elite?  Here are some supporting arguments.

 

Lack of Depth

Not to say that the Titans are lacking talent at wide receiver, but the core isn’t like some of the other division winners last season.  AJ Brown simply has a stranglehold on the target share in Tennessee.  Despite only playing 13 games, he had almost twice as many targets thrown his way than the next closest wide receiver.  Not to mention Brown lit up for twice as many big plays than his closest competitor on the team.

 

Return of the King

The dynamic in virtually every capacity changed once Derrick Henry went down in week 8 last season.  Henry only had two weeks with less than 28 rushing attempts, crossing 33 twice.  Defenses must bring so much of their focus on the King, leaving everyone else less guarded.  With Henry down, everything changed and with Henry back next season, Brown’s production can only skyrocket.  We can’t underestimate this truth.

 

Verdict

While AJ Brown may have the talent to be otherworldly, the fantasy community may be looking at him a little too fondly.  Experts consistently have him ranked right behind phenoms Chase and Jefferson, right at the top of tier 2.  I’ve yet to see him lower than 5 on any dynasty ranking chart, but is this where he should truly sit?

 

AJ Brown is not alone when it comes to valuing a player based on what he can do, rather than what he has done.  Despite finishing as WR12 in 2020, many considered him to be WR2 in dynasty.  Even with the horrendous finish last season, to rank him in the top 5, let alone 3rd is a little rich.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s a true WR1 on almost any team, but because everyone values him so highly, I’d sell due to the profit.

 

Tennessee Titans 2021 Post NFL Draft Fantasy Outlook

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Tennessee Titans 2021 Post NFL Draft Fantasy Outlook

By Tommy Harvey

Fresh off their 1st division title since 2008, the Tennessee Titans will attempt to take the next step up to Super Bowl contenders in 2021.  Their 11 wins are also the 1st double digit wins season since 2008, when they went 13-3 and lost in the AFC Divisional round.  Head Coach Mike Vrabel is the most successful HC since Jeff Fisher, going 29-19 in three seasons.  However, he is replacing Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith, who left to take the HC job in Atlanta.  Todd Downing was promoted from TE Coach to OC this offseason, and he will continue to run the same system that was in place under Smith.  Downing had previous OC experience with the Raiders in 2017, so the promotion should not be too much of an adjustment for him.

The Titans are replacing a few key contributors from last season’s team, as they lost WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries, TE Jonnu Smith, and OT Dennis Kelly.  Replacing them are WR Josh Reynolds, WR Dez Fitzpatrick, and OT Dillon Radunz.  Davis, Humphries, and Smith left behind 192 targets from 2020, so their replacements will have big shoes to fill if Tennessee wants to become an elite team in 2021.

2021 Draft Review

Tennessee didn’t have a ton of draft picks this year, but they did a good job of balancing offense and defense with their 8 picks.  The headliner was the 22nd overall pick CB Caleb Farley out of Virginia Tech.  A lot has been said of his back issues (two surgeries, the most recent in March) leading up to the draft, which caused him to fall to 22 for the Titans.  If healthy, Farley could be a lockdown CB1, in a division that includes QBs Deshaun Watson (for now anyways), Trevor Lawrence, and Carson Wentz.  

OT Dillon Radunz was one of the top linemen available this year, and Tennessee was able to snag him with the 53rd overall pick in the 2nd round.  That could be looked at as a steal in a few years.  He will take over for the departed Dennis Kelly and should help protect Ryan Tannehill and pave the way for Derrick Henry.  Radunz is not unfamiliar with blocking for high-caliber QBs, as Trey Lance was his teammate at North Dakota State.

My favorite pick of the Titans came in the 4th round, when they scooped up WR Dez Fitzpatrick out of Louisville with the 109th overall pick.  Fitzpatrick, 6’2 209lbs, ran in the 4.4’s during his pro day and should have a decent upside for the Titans in 2021.  In 2020 at Louisville, he had 43 catches for 833 yards and 3 TDs, in a somewhat underutilized role. Already 23 years old, Tennessee shouldn’t have to wait long for him to physically mature enough to contribute.  

Quarterback

QB Ryan Tannehill

Ryan Tannehill is entrenched as the Tennessee Titans franchise QB now, after signing a massive deal which included $62 million guaranteed before last season.  Tannehill didn’t disappoint, as he threw for over 3,800 yards and 33 TDs...and ran for another 7 TDs...in 2020.  The former 1st round pick of the Miami Dolphins originally arrived in Tennessee as the presumed backup to then QB Marcus Mariota.  However, inconsistent play by Mariota mixed with Tannehill’s ability to win games put him in the QB1 position for good in Nashville.  

The Titans need Tannehill to be a Pro Bowl caliber QB again in order for them to reach the Promised Land.  He has definitely seemed to figure out how to play in the NFL since leaving behind the Dolphins and Adam Gase.  He should be targeted as a back-end QB1 or high-end QB2 in all fantasy formats.  

2021 Early Projections:

337-510 66% 4,078 yards 36 TDs 9INTs; 51 carries, 306 yards, 4 TDs

Running Back

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry became the 2nd Titan (Chris Johnson) the 8th RB in NFL history to run for over 2,000 yards in a season in 2020. Can he do it again with an extra game on the schedule? It's a possibility, but I'd say not likely. The wear and tear on a RBs body eventually takes its toll, but Henry is a very rare breed. He has proven to be a durable thoroughbred for Tennessee, and they will continue to ride him for as long as they possibly can. 

Henry is a bonafide stud that should be considered a top-5 RB in all formats, despite not being a prime target in the passing game. In 2020, he finished as the RB3 in full PPR leagues, even with only 19 catches. In .5 PPR and standard leagues, he was the RB2 and RB1 respectively.

2021 Early Projections:

361 carries, 1,841 yards, 5.1ypc 14TDs; 34 targets, 21 receptions, 134 yards 1 TD

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

WR AJ Brown

In 14 games last season, AJ Brown saw 106 targets.  Let’s assume he plays all 17 games in 2021.  How many targets could/should he get with Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith out of the picture?  I don’t foresee another pass catcher getting 100+ targets in this offense (Corey Davis was 2nd on the team with 92 looks in 2020).  

Brown may very well be the overall WR1 in dynasty leagues, so envisioning him with close to 150 targets is not unreasonable.  With the lack of a true WR2 on the roster, Brown will be leaned on heavily in the pass game and should be a perennial Pro Bowler and potential All-Pro moving forward.  

2021 Early Projections:

145 Targets, 96 receptions, 1,430 yards 14.9ypc 14 TDs

WR Josh Reynolds

A new addition to the Titans, Josh Reynolds displayed plenty of ability while with the Rams.  He was just below some big time WRs on their depth chart.  Now in Tennessee, Reynolds should be considered their WR2. Last season in Los Angeles, Reynolds caught 52 balls on 81 targets for 618 yards.  That type of production should translate well as a possession receiver in Nashville.

2021 Early Projections:

96 targets, 64 receptions, 794 yards, 12.4ypc, 6 TDs

WR Dez Fitzpatrick 6’2 209 lbs

Another newcomer to the Tennessee roster is rookie WR Dez Fitzpatrick.  The former Louisville Cardinal was drafted in the 4th round and was a very good prospect early on in college with QB Lamar Jackson throwing him the ball.  Fitzpatrick has good size and speed, but will need to sure up his hands in order to make an impact in the NFL.  I think with a good NFL QB and coaching staff, he will do just that.

2021 Early Projections:

66 targets, 48 receptions, 706 yards, 14.7ypc, 6TDs

TE Anthony Firkser/Geoff Swaim

Jonnu Smith left Tennessee to join the New England Patriots, leaving behind a void at the Tight End position for the Titans.  Anthony Firkser performed well as a backup pass catching TE last season, but his ability...or lack thereof...to block has many wondering if he will see enough snaps.  Geoff Swaim is much less of a receiving threat, but a solid enough blocker to get on the field in Tennessee’s run-heavy offense.  

2021 Early Projections:

Firkser: 65 targets, 48 receptions, 480 yards, 10.0 ypc, 4TDs

Swaim: 28 Targets, 19 receptions, 177 yards, 9.3ypc, 1TDs

AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Continuing our journey through the AFC we head south with the, wait for it, AFC South. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a new QB, amazing O line, stout RB and WR groups, and HC Frank Reich. This offensive core is NEUTRAL, gladly targeting without reaching.

QB Phillip Rivers: QB2, priority FA, QB is too deep of a position to be drafting Rivers but always worth to keep a close eye on an established veteran with a strong supporting cast!

RB Jonathon Taylor: Low-RB2, ideal RB3, 10-12% auction, round 4, Jonathon Taylor feels a lot like Ezekiel Elliot’s rookie year. Great offensive live, in the mix with veteran RB prescence, drafted highly, studs in college, and could be a fantasy 1st rounder as a sophomore. Love him, think he will be special!

RBs Marlon Mack: (RB4, 3-4% auction, round 9) and Nyheim Hines (zeroRB and PPR target, RB5-6, 1-2% auction, round 13) are in the mix for splitting the workload. It would be wise to invest in this backfield!

WR TY Hilton: Low-WR2, ideal WR3, 6-7% auction, round 6, I think this best ball target is being a little undervalued with his cost, big upside! I think Rivers will look for him often!

WR Michael Pittman (priority FA, deep league end of bench WR) and Parris Campbell (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14) are great complimentary pieces with TY Hilton. Both being big upside potential. The more I think about it the more I think this entire offense is undervalued!

TE Jack Doyle (TE2, borderline undraftable) and Trey Burton (priority FA, if Doyle misses time) will be more exciting options if a WR would miss time. Always best to keep an eye out for players in a good offense like this one!

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were certainly remembered for their playoff run last season. Nice bit of career redemption for Ryan Tannehill and monster efforts from Derrick Henry and AJ Brown were very exciting to see! The Titans are NEUTRAL with fair ADP all around.

QB Ryan Tannehill: QB2, priority FA, glad to see him do well on this team, struggling with injuries in Miami, it is always good to see a player full potential on display, I hope he can keep it up!

RB Derrick Henry: RB1, 20-22% auction, round 1, a big stock riser for me over the course of the summer, I now have him solidified as my RB6 and 6th overall player in all formats. This king of volume looks to repeat his success with little competition behind him.

RB Darryton Evans: RB6, $1 deep auction, intriguing prospect lands in a great situation. Pass-catching upside is there!

WR AJ Brown: Low-WR1 (robust RB with elite TR), ideal WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4, he had a truly amazing rookie season being a YAC monster, but questions of statistical sustainability linger. He is the top dog in town. Buy!

WR Corey Davis: (priority FA) has potential for opportunity, he just hasn’t done much with it so far. I’m fading until proven otherwise. Opportunity and talent remain bit I want to see it consistently come together before I get on my roster.

TE Jonnu Smith: TE2, $1 deep auction, round 14 if TE waiting has gone out of control. This TE on the rise certainly has plenty of opportunity with Delanie Walker out of town. Perhaps I’m too low on him but other TE options are more exciting to me. Worth drafting for sure! If he doesn’t pan out, TE is super deep.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a FADE, every player has value at a certain price, almost all of them I will be targeting only if at a bargain. Looming loses seems likely but week to week value can still be had.

QB Gardner Minshew: A national treasure, full of Chuck Norris energy! Or did Chuck Norris (RIP) have Gardner Minshew energy? Hmmm. Anyway, the only way I’m drafting him in standard rule leagues is with the Bud Light sweepstakes in mind. Have I mentioned that he is a national treasure?! Fun guy on a bad team, I’d rather not count on garbage time points.

RB Ryquell Armstead, Devine Ozigbo, and Chris Thompson: After the release of Leonard Fournette, can one of these guys return fantasy value?  We always want to keep players on our radars, but in this case I’m gonna let the radar blip. If Chris Thompson can stay on the field he has legitimate pass catching upside. Deep PPR target.

WR DJ Chark: WR2, 6-7%, late-4th/early-5th, Nope, not going sing it, can’t do it, let’s not get that song stuck in your head, I won’t do that to you my valued reader. He had a glorious breakout season, and was garbage time proof! Focal point of the offense! Call Me Maybe...ha

WR Dede Westbrook (deep PPR target, priority FA) and WR Lavishka Shenault (priority FA, deep end of bench stash) are still intriguing in the way that fantasy points can still be had in this offense, especially with the passing game if they are trailing in games.

TE Tyler Eifert: low TE2, priority FA, always has upside when he is healthy, his journey in the NFL has been rough, always flashed but has overcome some brutal injuries. Rooting for the guy, keep an eye out!

Houston Texans

HC (and GM?) Bill O’Brien has made some “interesting” off season decisions... new faces include David Johnson and Brandin cooks but franchise WR DeAndre Hopkins is gone. Deshaun Watson alone makes this team full of NEUTRAL targets.

QB Deshaun Watson: QB1, 5% auction, round 7, rushing upside while surrounded by nice weapons continues to make him an attractive QB! This fantasy friendly offense is likely to find themselves in shoot-outs with Watson being the prime beneficiary!

RB David Johnson: “Ladder Pick”, RB2 12-13% auction, round 4, I was very happy to see that I am higher on him than the market is. Could see a lot of touches, some worry remains about what he is able to do with them. I’m ok taking that risk with a player with his inherent upside.

RB Duke Johnson: Low-RB4, zeroRB and PPR target, I wish he would be implemented more because he is a unique talent with great pass-catching ability. Houston could find themselves in some shoot-outs. Best ball target!

WR Will Fuller: Low-WR3/high-WR4, 5-6% auction, round 7, only worry is health, but when healthy the Sky is the literal limit! QB-WR Continuity will be key is the season! I’d be aggressive targeting him in Best ball!

WR Brandin Cooks: Low-WR3 (robust EB with elite TE), ideal WR4, on his 4th team now starting his 7th season, he has proven to be new location proof. Houston can put up some serious offensive numbers. PPR target!

WR Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb: Priority FAs in a good offense. Should become wildly relevant if Fuller/Cooks were to miss time!