Start/Sit Week 3

By Joe Goodwin

Accountability:

Last week, I definitely had some hits and misses.  I used “starter” benchmarks to determine if a player was a hit or miss; and I used PPR scoring.

And, if a player was a late scratch or missed significant time during the game due to injury, I will disregard that prediction.

Quarterback or Tight end: Top 12

Running back: Top 25

Wide Receiver: Top 36

Matt Stafford 🎯

Derek Carr 🎯

Russell Wilson X

Baker Mayfield/Daniel Jones X

Mac Jones 🎯

Jacoby Brissett 🎯

DeAndre Swift 🎯

Ezekiel Elliot X

Miles Sanders X

Kenneth Walker 🎯

Jeff Wilson X

Deebo Samuel 🎯

Jerry Jeudy X

Stefon Diggs/Gabe Davis 🎯

CeeDee Lamb 🎯

DeVonta Smith

Kyle Phillips 🎯

Pat Friermuth 🎯

Dallas Goedert 🎯

Noah Fant 🎯

So, overall I went 13-6 on picks.  Game flow has been hard to predict.  However, I believe I have a few calls that should pan out for you this week.

QB

Starts

Obvious choices: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson

Marcus Mariota: It has come to the point where you have to wonder how this Seattle defense could have gotten this bad?  Seattle is giving up over 400 years to opposing offenses.  And, I believe Mariota will run and throw his way to a solid performance this week.

Justin Fields: I preface this by saying Fields may not get to “Top 12” status this week, but is a solid choice if your QB depth is lacking.  The Houston defense is the worst in the league.  Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney are just too good to not get a break out game and help out Fields. Yes, that offensive line is a colander, but this defense doesn’t appear to be equipped to exploit it.

Tua Tagovailoa: As I thought of my targets to like and dislike this week, I had Tua queued up to be a sit.  My thinking was easy…there is no way he replicates last week and a let down week would occur.  However, the Bills are down 4 starters.  And, if the Bills do what they have done to every other team so far, then the Dolphins will be in a similar situation as last week and have to throw often in the 4th quarter.  Tua might not look great for long stretches, but with Waddle and Hill eating up YAC’s, Tua will benefit from all those extra yards.

Joe Flacco: Quite simply, I write his name because it may be the last week in his career he is fantasy relevant.  And so far, he has been VERY GOOD for the Jets.  Did you realize he leads the league in completed passes?  Me neither.  Let’s exploit one more week before the Jets give the team back to Zack to mess up.

QB

Sits

Injury sits: Justin Herbert, Zack Wilson 

Jameis Winston: Although Carolina lets every team run all over them, the passing yards have been scarce.  With Winston still nursing a multitude of injuries, I’m sure the game plan will be to exploit the run game using Kamara and company.

Joe Burrow: If you didn’t already know, it's really hard to throw a football with any meaningful purpose when you are running for your life.  Burrow has been sacked 13 times in 2 games; which leads the NFL.  The firepower is there, but the time to effectively use it, has not.  I’m in a holding pattern with Burrow until the Bengals tap into that “mojo” they had last year.

Tom Brady: Quite simply, who does he throw to?  Mike Evans: out.  Chris Godwin: out. Julio Jones: questionable.  This team was so desperate, they went out and signed Cole Beasley.  

RB

Starts

Locked and Loaded: Barkley, JT (although close to not being), CMC

Antonio Gibson: With the Eagles all of a sudden becoming a tough team to throw against (ask the Vikings), Gibson should benefit from a game plan this week more tilted to the running game. Plus, Wentz is always more comfortable throwing less than 25 times a game.  The Redskins will feed Gibson as much as he can handle.

James Robinson: I am now officially on the James Robinson train.  I thought for sure ETN would take this job and never look back.  Then, after seeing the first two games, I remembered that Doug Pederson is at the helm.  And from his days leading the Eagles, I forgot what a short fuse he has with young players and mistakes.  ETN has had a bunch of missed opportunities this year and Pederson will lean heavily on Robinson to control the clock against a Chargers team potentially missing a lot of studs on offense.

RB

Sits

Injury: Josh Jacobs, James Connor (monitor closely)

Joe MIxon: It pains me to write that, but I am not seeing that offensive line opening holes for him to run through.  Mixon is currently 2nd in the league in running attempts, 12th in yards, and 49th in yards per attempt.  The lack of efficiency is reason enough to stay away until the offensive line/efficiency improves.

Derrick Henry: I saw a stat that when Henry scores less than 10 fantasy points in a game, the following week’s game he goes over 20.  Well, last week was the week he was supposed to go over 20 and he didn’t.  His lack of efficiency with his reps and the offense lacking any spark, has Henry on this list.  He may be a buy low candidate after this week, but if you have depth at the position, you may want to explore those options.  Henry looks like he may not have the spark and drive he had last year.

WR

Starts

Start and forget: Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek HIll, Jaylen Waddle, Stefon Diggs

Amon-Ra St. Brown: Watching AJ Brown and the Eagles shred that shell defense the Vikings are currently using, makes me believe Detroit will use St. Brown like AJ.  This is not just an indictment on the Viking, Amon-Ra is THAT good.  He came into the week 5th in receptions and 12th in yards.  Goff has found his go-to guy.

Justin Jefferson: Yes, last week “Big Play” Slay got a lot of publicity for shutting down JJ on Monday Night Football.  One, JJ will not get played like that twice.  Second, the Lions do not have Slay anymore (I'm sure they wish they did).  Finally, the Vikings really have not found another receiving threat to eat into JJ’s target share.  I am BIG on JJ this week!

Courtland Sutton: This is totally predicated on Jeudy and Hamler not playing.  IF they are both out, Wilson will target Sutton a bunch.  Utilize the one week payday and start Sutton everywhere.

AJ Brown: This Eagles offense has looked very good and Jalen Hurts seems to find AJ on every play.  Smith and Goedert are sharing targets, but AJ seems to be getting as much as he can handle.  I would continue to ride this hot streak.

WR

Sits

Injury/Suspension related: Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Hunter Renfrow, Kyle Phillips

Gabe Davis: At this point, the Bills have little to prove.  Stefon Diggs has looked unstoppable in the first 2 weeks; and Josh Allen is a modern day Superman.  With Davis still feeling the lingering effects of an ankle injury, I’m prone to avoid Davis this week and wait one more week and reassess.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: I had JuJu as a start last week, and now he is a sit.  Why the flip flop?  Simply put, Mahomes is a magician and doesn’t care which trick he performs and Andy Reid doesn’t care about stats at all.  The Chiefs are good.  However, the receiving corps will be a week to week guess.  I prefer more predictable players at this point.  

TE

Starts

Ready to go: Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews

OJ Howard: As of this writing, OJ may be the only tight end of substance on the Texans roster.  And with a lacking receiving unit to begin with, OJ may be in line for more targets and red zone looks for a depleted Houston offense.

Gerald Everett: Did you know Gerald Everett leads the Chargers in receiving yards?  And tied for targets?  With the possibility of Herbert and Allen not playing, and check down tight end will be exactly what any offensive coordinator could wish for.  Assuming the Chargers are forced to use Chase Daniel, I think Everett will get a lot of work in the flat and 5 yard in-routes to help Daniel to get the ball out quick and keep the ball moving.

TE

Sits

Injury Question Marks:  Dalton Schutlz, Dawson Knox

Mike Geisicki: With all the touchdowns Tua is throwing and the yards gained, it's a wonder how Geisicki hasn’t cashed in.  With only 5 targets after the first 2 games, he is obviously now just a 3rd or worse read for Tua.  Waddle and Hill are obviously the focal points of the offense. 

George Kittle: Finally! Another elite tight end is back.  However, Kittle has to battle the 4th best pass defense in his first game out.  I think Jimmy G at the helm is good for receivers on the 49ers,  I would just wait to one more week to find out exactly how that shakes out.