April 13, 2024

Rookie Spotlight 2024: Bo Nix

5 min read

I’ve seen analysts project Bo Nix as high as 12th overall to the Broncos or falling to day two of the NFL draft. The reviews on Nix are mixed and dynasty managers want to know how they should view the 24-year-old quarterback as they prepare for rookie drafts.

That’s why I’m here to help. So, without further ado, let’s take a closer look at the incoming rookie in today’s Rookie Spotlight.

 

Rookie Spotlight: Bo Nix

  • No. 1 QB prospect in his high school class
  • 6’2”, 214 lbs.
  • 5-year college starter
  • 2023 Heisman Trophy finalist

Bo Nix started his career at Auburn before transferring to Oregon after his true sophomore season. He took a giant leap forward in 2023, throwing for 4,508 yards and 45 passing touchdowns on 470 passing attempts.

Along with his impressive passing numbers, Nix also added 234 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns to cap off a phenomenal senior season. This earned him Third-Team Associated Press All-American honors and third place in Heisman voting.

 

Strengths

Nix’s biggest strength is his accuracy, only completing 77.4% of his passes in 2023. He displays good athleticism moving within the pocket, utilizing his quick feet and vision to sidestep approaching pass rushers, and can take off running when needed. Nix has a quick release and has shown adequate arm strength to drive the ball downfield.

A quick decision maker, Bo Nix has natural football instincts which shows in his movements out of the pocket and RPO ability. For teams that want to run a hybrid RPO attack or that wish to exploit the short and intermediate parts of the field, he is your guy. Nix has been a five-year starter with leadership ability — that coaches have complimented — and a ton of experience heading to the NFL.

 

Weaknesses

The biggest knock for me when watching Bo Nix is that he often starts running if his first read is covered. This has me questioning his ability to work through his progressions and find the open man. Processing speed is imperative for an NFL quarterback.

Despite there being a ton of tape on Nix, I didn’t see many examples of him going through his progressions and finding the open man as the play broke down. Many scouts and NFL evaluators also point out his lack of downfield throws, choosing instead to throw mostly at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Nix’s 6.8 average depth of target (aDOT) ranks him 93rd in college football for quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks in 2023. Now, this could be a product of the offense or it could be a sign that the offense was designed purposely to “play to the strengths” of their quarterback.

Nix lacks the elite arm strength of guys like Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, or Patrick Mahomes, which I feel cap his ceiling as a passer. While the man can move, Nix is not going to provide the type of rushing upside we see from Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, or even Jayden Daniels.

NFL Player Comparison

Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield and Bo Nix had similar productions in their final year in college while also sharing some of the same knocks on their profile. Both are incredibly mobile within the pocket, which is essential for today’s NFL but concerns of processing and reading the field beyond their first read are big concerns when drafting a quarterback with a top pick.

 

Top 3 Landing Spots

Denver Broncos

Mel Kiper’s most recent mock draft has Nix landing with the Denver Broncos, even throwing out a Drew Brees comparison. Nix is a quick decision-maker who is accurate with his ball placement. No doubt the Broncos eye a quarterback in the draft, and Nix’s experience is something Sean Payton will covet.

 

Minnesota Vikings

This is more about knowing the needs of the Vikings than it is a good fit. For those who have held Nix in devy or who have already drafted the quarterback in their dynasty rookie drafts, this would be a dream scenario. Any quarterback that has the benefit of throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson will have a leg up against other rookie quarterbacks in fantasy.

 

Las Vegas Raiders

With the Raiders recently signing Gardner Minshew and with Aiden O’Connell heading into his second year, there seems to be an open quarterback competition in Las Vegas. Adding a player like Bo Nix to compete would be a shot worth taking, as I do not believe the Raiders have their “Franchise Quarterback” currently on their roster.

With Antonio Pierce in his first full year as head coach in Oakland, he might want to get his guy and make a splash in this year’s draft.

 

Fantasy Impact

Quarterbacks, especially in superflex formats, are highly valued. Deciding between taking Bryce Young or CJ Stroud last year wasn’t a perfect science. What I can say is that draft capital is extremely important.

If Nix ends up going as a top-ten pick in the NFL draft, then I’m comfortable taking him with a late first in rookie drafts. If he ends up falling to the second round as Will Levis did, then he would fall well outside the top 12 rookie picks for me this year. Draft capital means opportunity.

There is a ton of pressure on management and coaches in today’s NFL to roll out their first-round quarterback as soon as possible. If you’re a top-ten pick as a quarterback, you’ll almost always have a “longer leash” than quarterbacks not taken with a top pick. There is zero doubt that Bryce Young is the starting quarterback for the Panthers this year, as they invested way too much capital to have him sitting on the bench.

While I feel Nix CAN be a starting quarterback in the NFL, he isn’t a special prospect. For fantasy, he lacks the rushing upside of Jayden Daniels and the pure passing ability of Caleb Williams. If you need a quarterback this year, that is who you should be targeting.

It’ll be interesting to see how the NFL views Nix, and draft capital will tell you how you should view the 24-year-old Bo Nix in dynasty.

Copyright © All rights reserved. | Newsphere by AF themes.