Redrafts Most Overrated Players
There are just some guys every year that disappoint and you end up saying: “I’m never drafting them again.” 2018 Le’Veon Bell is one that comes to mind for me, I still haven't forgiven him. Others would say, Kyle Pitts, Najee Harris, and Baker Mayfield. All for different reasons but also seasons we should have seen coming. I learned a lot in 2018 after getting burned, just because they have been good in the past or had good rookie seasons, does not mean year in and year out they will be good fantasy options.
This article is just for that. An “overrated” player based on the situations they will have to deal with this year. By no means am I saying this is a no-draft list, this is just a recommendation on what you should be looking for to avoid the unforgivable seasons. For various reasons, mostly because of different formats, I excluded quarterbacks from this list. This also revolves more around redraft formats, and not dynasty fantasy leagues. I hope this helps, so you don't have to learn the hard way!
Davante Adams is one of the clear answers here for me. At age 30, this is the first year he has an absolute no-question quarterback question mark. Will Jimmy Garoppolo start the season? Time will tell if he is healthy. If he doesn't they will begin with the most bridge quarterback in Brian Hoyer, and then move to rookie Aidan O’Connell. To say this is the most inexperience Adams will ever have at the quarterback position is an understatement. Hall of Famer to College QB to this. His average draft position (ADP) of 15 ranks him as WR6. This is too high for Adams this year with these other guys on the list:
Amon-ra St. Brown -18 (ADP)
Jaylen Waddle - 20
Garrett Wilson - 21
Tee Higgins - 27
I would take these 4 players over Adams this year and here is why. Amon-ra will be the top target in Detroit along with being with his quarterback for more than a training camp. Jaylen Waddle and Tee Higgins have proven there within their respective offenses to have good upside in fantasy and are on playoff-worthy teams. The obvious one here was Garrett Wilson. I would not take Davante Adams ahead of Garrett Wilson because of a few reasons. 1.) He has the quarterback Adams has had the most success with, and 2.) a younger versatile player in general.
We will come back to wide receiver ADP later because I know there are a few more guys I would take above him but they will be used in another example.
This happens every year for redraft formats. The top few rookie running backs go a little earlier than they should because they are the new hot thing. Bijan Robinson is a Falcon. If there is one thing we know through the Arthur Smith coaching timeframe is he is definitely unpredictable. Drafting Kyle Pitts, the highest Tight End ever taken in the draft, has battled some injuries but isn't on the field when he was healthy his rookie year for as much as the fantasy community wanted him to be. Drafting Drake London in the first round the next year but having the Marcus Mariota fiasco and then starting a rookie in Desmond Ridder they grabbed in the 3rd round. Are you sensing a theme? Arthur Smith with his rookie weapons dont have a good track record in my opinion. They all can be good players and be good teammates for each other but fans and fantasy owners alike are getting impatient.
Bijan Robinson is getting drafted as the RB3 and has an ADP of 8. Here are the guys right behind him I would take instead:
Jonathan Taylor - 9
Saquon Barkley - 10
Nick Chubb - 14
Derrick Henry - 17
In Dynasty, Bijan is the smash pick. In redraft, I would take any one of these other established running backs because you know what you’re going to get. Jonathan Taylor had a down year, the line should be improving and you should see higher totals from him especially because of his rookie quarterback. Saquon Barkley just got his “extension” and is with the Giants, they know how to use him in that offense. Chubb and Henry are the bell cows for their respective teams, we know they will get touches and eventually touchdowns. We have seen it every year.
We don't know what Bijan is going to do. I am sure he will dominate but with his current value try pivoting this year to something a little more safe.
Evan Engram got his extension from the Jaguars this off-season. Securing him for another 3 years the Jaguars finally have a comparable tight end as an option. We all remember his rookie year where he racked up 64 receptions, 722 yards, and 6 touchdowns and we thought Engram was then going to fly. Then it never really got any better. He's been a model of consistency around the 500-700 yard range his whole career. Even with injury, his average per reception stays the same. Here are some guys that I feel are better values behind Engram, who is projected at TE8 with an ADP of 89.
Pat Freiermuth -90 (https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-dilemma-pat-freiermuth/)
David Njoku - 94
Dalton Schultz - 111
Chigozeim Okonkwo - 118
Dalton Kincaid - 120
We all know what tight end is in fantasy, it can be the barren wasteland and every league should be tight end premium to make the position far more valuable. Yet, this isn’t the case. So instead of knowing what you have with Engram, go for the even more consistent tight ends right behind him in Freiermuth (I also go into more detail in my Freiermuth Dynasty Dilemma; linked above) and Njoku. Schultz and Okonkwo, are more guys I would risk on more this year rather than Engram just based on “mouths to feed.” Engram will not be the number 2 option this year with the addition of Calvin Ridley this offseason. Christian Kirk and Travis Etienne will also be more involved in leaving Engram as the possible 3 or 4th option every week. Schultz will more than likely be the 2nd option in the Houston offense and Okonkwo will vary. Dalton Kincaid is the most interesting value because he may play slot. Engram has proven he can do that too but we all know sometimes that pesky thing called age gets in the way. There is always a shinier, newer model that someone will like.
By no means am I not taking Evan Engram when available, especially if I need tight end help. I am however taking Freiermuth and Njoku before him. If I do take Engram, I am trying to grab one of the rookie tight ends later as well.
This one pains me. I am a firm believer in Olave’s skillset. Im sure Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) the creator of the Reception Perception, has a beautiful write-up and graphic on every route Olave can perform. He is a route technician and can destroy any zone coverage there is. Yet, we may need to pump the breaks on the sophomore player. Unlike Tee Higgins, Olave has only one year of work. His offense this year will also have more competition because another route technician in Michael Thomas will be back. Do I believe Thomas will go back to what he was in the past? Not necessarily, but we can't be naive in thinking that Olave is the number 1 guy. At wide receiver 12 and ADP of 29 there are some WR1s on teams I would much rather prefer:
Devonta Smith - 32
DK Metcalf - 33
Deebo Samuel - 37
Keenan Allen - 39
Amari Cooper - 41
Metcalf, Samuel, and Cooper are the clear favorites here. They have proven in past seasons that they can maintain their fantasy relevance under duress and had no quarterback. They know their role and are more consistent than Olave right now. Keenan Allen and Devonta Smith will be sharing receptions with other players more than the other 3 on the list but have proven time and again that they can also stay relevant. We can’t say that about Olave at this time. He has all the tools to do it, however.
I want to reiterate one more time. I don’t think these guys are bad players. The current values they have are just a little high. We all have a common goal of winning our leagues and having bragging rights. That means making the right choices and having an edge over your league mates. These players may possibly be the ones that affect how well you do this season. Let the team here at Dynasty Pros do the research for you. Read our articles and have more information for your upcoming drafts.
*All stats from early July ADP for ½ PPR on Sleeper*
Cody Folden joined the Dynasty Pros team in 2023. He plays in many dynasty leagues but dabbles in other leagues like devy, contract, and scouting leagues. He loves to dive deep into learning about prospects coming up through college and seeing them thrive when they get to the league.