MOCK DRAFT: Picks 16-32 & Fantasy Implications

By: Charlie Friar

#16 - Cardinals: Christian Barmore (DT) Alabama

A lot of mock drafts have the Cards taking a CB with this pick. That’s fine. But Arizona has many defenders eligible for unrestricted free agency so they’ll be looking to strengthen their weakest links. In 2020 their rush defense was significantly worse than their pass D. They gave up the 11th most rushing yards vs. the 10th fewest passing yards. The CB pick can come in Round 2.

Fantasy Outlook: IDP Players, this guy is for real. If you watched the College Football Playoffs you know what I'm talking about.

#17 - Raiders: Gregory Rousseau (DE) Miami

This pick is almost too easy. The Raiders ranked 30th in the league with just 1.3 sacks per game in 2020. Gregory Rousseau has been described as “an athletic freak” with “dynamic burst and smooth athleticism.” He stands 6’7” & weighs 267 lbs. If that doesn’t scream Mark Davis + John Gruden + Vegas, I don’t know what does! They need a disrupter to get after Mahomes & Herbert. That’s what they get in Rousseau.

Fantasy Outlook: Definitely on the radar for IDP Players

#18 - Dolphins: Najee Harris (RB) Alabama

The Dolphins' D is set, as we mentioned in our previous article, so now is the time to load up on weapons for Tua. After taking WR Ja'marr Chase with the #3 pick, Miami gives Tua his 'Roll Tide Reunion' by selecting (arguably) the best running back in the draft in Najee Harris. He's got everything you want and need at the position: vision, breakaway speed, and solid catching ability. Myles Gaskin made some noise in 2020 with 972 total yds. and 5 TD's in 10 games. But Gaskin's ceiling is that of a #2 back. Harris will be the feature back and the centerpiece of the Dolphins' offense. Why? See below.

Fantasy Outlook: BUY HARRIS. That sound desperate? Good. Harris is one of a few rookies who should be drafted in *all* fantasy formats. As mentioned, Miami's defense is top tier. The Dolphins' point differential in 2020 was +66. That's the team's widest margin since 1995. The 2021 Dolphins will work to increase that margin by establishing the run. How do we know this? Tua’s avg. pass attempts per game in 2020 was 29.00. That ranked 38th in the NFL. But with his half-season I can see how you’d question that number. So we looked at Ryan Fitzpatrick’s attempts. He was just two spots above Tua at 29.67 per game. The Dolphins don’t want to be a pass-dependent offense & likely won’t need to be. So that opens up the groundwork for Harris.

Some even better news for PPR leagues? Harris can catch the football. He recorded 43 catches in 13 games in 2020 & most of those games were blowouts for the Crimson Tide. ALSO - In just 10 games in 2020 Gaskin ranked 6th among all RB’s with 4.7 targets per game. Tua will be looking for the check-down.

Top 10 in targets while part of a run-first offense? BUY HARRIS WITH THE DOLPHINS.

Gaskin was a decent Batman, but now it’s time to be Robin to a new Dark Knight; Najee Harris.

#19 - Washington: Swapped with Chargers, LAC picks Christian Darrisaw (OT) Virginia Tech

Herbert gets protection! Desperately needing to improve their offensive line, the Los Angeles...don't call them San Diego...Chargers go with the big man here.

#20 - Bears: Samuel Cosmi (OT) Texas

Anyone know if he actually goes by Sam? Hope not. Samuel C. will help solidify an offensive line that finished the season strong, but was practically nonexistent for 10+ games.

Fantasy Outlook: David Montgomery keeps his end of season momentum? This helps!

#21 - Colts: Joseph Ossai (EDGE/LB) Texas

I had this pick in for the Colts before the Carson Wentz trade & I’m sticking with it. They need an LT and I don’t think the draft is the place to get one this year. There are several top candidates in free agency & that’s likely where they go to get one. So in Round 1 the Colts will look at the other side of the ball. Indy needs to pressure opposing quarterbacks to have a complete defense. Last season the Colts only blitzed on 18.8% of plays, the 2nd lowest in the league. But now defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus solidifies his 4-3 scheme with a versatile edge rusher in Joseph Ossai who will go nicely with Indy's (De)force in the middle, Deforest Buckner. Ossai played OLB for Texas the two years prior to last season. Then when the Longhorns switched to a 4-3 defense he moved to the edge. His versatility will be valuable in today’s NFL. He was also able to record 3 forced fumbles in just 9 games last season.

Fantasy Outlook: With so much attention on Buckner in the middle, expect Ossai to sneak through and around those offensive lines. I don’t think 6 sacks is out of the question for his first season.

#22 - Titans: Patrick Jones (EDGE) Pitt

Remember when we said the Raiders draft pick was “almost too easy?” Yeah. This is similar. The Titans were desperate for QB pressure in 2020. The Jadaveon Clowney experiment didn’t work out at all (0 sacks, 1 forced fumble in 8 games), and the team only recorded 19 sacks all season which was 30th in the league. Jones is their guy.

#23 - Jets: Travis Etienne (RB) Clemson

Frank Gore & Ty Johnson. Yeah. Time to move on. Travis Etienne is the complete package who can contribute right away. There are some questions about his goal-line value & his yards after contact. But those shouldn’t be a concern because if you look at the RB’s with the most carries inside the 10 & 5 in 2020 — it’s clear coaches gave the ball to their playmakers. And according to Pro Football Focus, 31% of Etienne’s carries in 2019 went for 5+ yds. after contact. The NCAA avg. that year was 17.3%.

Fantasy Outlook: This Jets team will be hard to predict early on this season when it comes to their offensive scheme. Head coach Robert Saleh is a defensive guy & he brought in his longtime pal, Mike LaFleur, to run the offense (seriously, they’re BFF's). So it's pretty safe to assume the offense will run through LaFleur. Now let’s figure out what that might mean for the first year OC & the first year RB:

Mike LaFleur is the younger brother of Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. The two only coached together in the NFL for one season w/ the Falcons and that was before Matt joined McVay and the Rams. So who will Mike LaFleur likely mirror with his offensive scheme? His longtime mentor Kyle Shanahan.

Etienne stans rejoice everywhere!

Shanahan has kept LaFleur under his wing for years. So if the Jets grab the Clemson RB at #23, then we can hope LaFleur will use Etienne in a similar way Shanahan used feature backs in the past before he got to San Francisco & started using 20+ different RB’s per game.

Shannahan's track record:

2008 - Texans OC - Steve Slaton: 268 carries, 1282 yds, 9 TD w/ 50 rec. (PPR bonus)
2012 - WFT OC - Alfred Morris: 335 carries, 1613 yds, 13 TD
2013 - WFT OC - Alfred Morris: 1275 yds, 7 TD
2015 - Falcons OC - Devonte Freeman: 1056 yds., 11 TD w/ 73 rec. 3 TD
2016 - Falcons OC - Freeman: 1079 yds., 11 TD (85 rec. 5 TD between Freeman & Coleman)

The takeaway: Shanahan gave unknown guys career years. He has a knack to get the most out of the RB position no matter who's back there. While we don’t know what exactly to expect from LaFleur — this is the foundation you want if you are looking to draft Etienne in fantasy for 2021. Hint: You should be.

#24 - Steelers: Teven Jenkins (OT) Oklahoma State

The Steelers were dead last in run offense in 2020. Dead. Last. I expect they will want to improve on that in order to make themselves more dynamic.

#25 - Jaguars: Levi Onwuzurike (DT) Washington

It was clear the Jags were hurting without stud edge rusher Josh Allen in 2020. The team only recorded 18 total sacks (31st) and ranked last in sacks per game (1.1). But it's an entirely new system now in Jacksonville with new defensive coordinator Joe Cullen. Cullen comes from the Ravens and we can expect a lot of carryover from Baltimore's scheme which starts with the pass rush. Allen and 2020 first rounder K'lavon Chiasson will be asked to do a lot in coverage, so the Jags will need someone in the middle to consistently pressure the QB. Levi Onwuzurike is a true interior defensive lineman who has the athleticism to be a solid pass rusher in the NFL.

#26 - Browns: Kwity Paye (EDGE) Michigan

Paye' Day for Cleveland! The Browns are said to be looking to fortify their defensive line around Myles Garrett. That is exactly what they'll be doing with Paye. He's a great addition to go opposite of Garrett, and it's a perfect opportunity for a young talent to learn from one of the best in the game.

#27 - Ravens: Jevon Holland (S) Oregon

I really wanted to say the Ravens go for a big wide receiver here, like Terrace Marshall, but I really think they're going to go hard after a WR in free agency. So with that being said, the Ravens will take the best defensive player available which so happens to be Jevon Holland. He's widely regarded as one of if not the top safety in the draft and Baltimore is able to pick him here. Six safeties were in the top 10 for interceptions in the NFL in 2020 with 4+ picks . The Ravens' safeties had a combined 1 interception last year. Expect Holland to be one of the best in the league down the road.

#28 - Saints: Jaycee Horn (CB) South Carolina

This is another 'Best Player Available' scenario. While the Saints didn't give up a ton of yards through the air in 2020, they did give up the 14th most passing touchdowns. Jaycee Horn is a big (6'1") and physical corner-back who's not totally polished, but can and will contribute in year one.

#29 - Packers: Zaven Collins (LB) Tulsa

Zaven Collins is by far my favorite defensive player in this entire draft. There's a good chance this guy will be the next big-name linebacker in the NFL. He's big, physical, and can get out in coverage. He had 4 interceptions in just 8 games in 2020. Green Bay had a (literally) average rush defense last year. If they can add Collins their entire defense should show immediate improvements. The release of Christian Kirksey only furthers my belief in Collins here.

#30 - Bills: Wyatt Davis (OL) Ohio St.

With Zaven Collins off the board the Bills turn to the other side of the ball. It's clear this offense now runs through Josh Allen and will continue to do so for a long time. So Allen needs to be protected and have time in the pocket. Only two of the five offensive-linemen that finished the season as starters are under contract for 2021. Their Left Tackle is set so now is the time to grab Wyatt Davis and lock in their guard position.

#31 - Chiefs: Nick Bolton (LB) Missouri

Arrowhead Stadium is just a 2-hour drive to Mizzou, so there's a good chance the Chiefs have kept a close eye on Nick Bolton for some time. KC has a sub-par run defense and needs to beef-up the box. He may be small(ish) but in 2020 he was one of the most productive defenders in the SEC. Bolton is a spark on the field and that's exactly what the Chiefs' defense needs right now.

#32 - Buccaneers: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) Notre Dame

Bucs fans should seriously be excited about this pick. One draft analyzer wrote Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is "versatile and explosive" and is a linebacker/safety combo. That's a dangerous combination in today's NFL. He'll be a great addition to that Buccaneers' defense that dominated the run, but was prone to giving up the big plays through the air.

You can follow me on Twitter @CharlieFriar

Charlie Friar