April 13, 2024

Mike Williams Signing: Fantasy Impact

4 min read

From being cut from the Los Angeles Chargers to getting a fresh deal with the New York Jets, Mike Williams finally has a new home. It’s a one-year deal worth up to $15 million, which seems like a great deal for a wide receiver who has had injury problems and is on the wrong side of 29. 

You can’t ask for a better prove-it contract while going to a team that may possibly be one player away on offense. This opens up what the Jets can do in the draft. If I were a betting man, I would bet on one of the tackles heading to New York. This deal — and the potential draft pick upgrade — will impact fantasy football a lot. Let’s talk about Williams’ value first.

 

Mike Williams’ Value

Mike Williams was the WR2 option for the LA Chargers, and he should easily retain that role. For Williams, 2021 was his best fantasy year, finishing 12th in PPR and 10th in half PPR leagues (according to Sleeper). Williams is posting in the WR2 or WR3 range — behind Garrett Wilson instead of Keenan Allen— and could have a breakout year. 

Keenan Allen is a possession receiver who will demand 10-13 targets and have nine receptions a game. Wilson has a little more finesse. He can blow the top off the defense and has a little bit more wiggle to get open and make the big plays. That was Mike Williams’ role with the Chargers. Williams can come to New York, build a rapport with Aaron Rodgers, and become the Keenan Allen of the New York Jets.

 

Jets’ Receiving Weapons

The signing impacts other pass catchers, notably Garrett Wilson and Tyler Conklin. With Aaron Rodgers returning, the Jets’ weapons may still face hurdles. If Rodgers gets hurt again, their value diminishes. Despite past setbacks, these players hold value and Mike Williams’ addition helps the team’s offensive weapons. 

Regarding matchups, Garrett Wilson is a good complement to Williams. The bigger corner can guard Wilson all they want, but you will have Williams beating you over the top. If you don’t put the CB1 on Wilson, he will eat your defense alive. 

Tyler Conklin and Jeremy Ruckert, the tight ends on the team, could improve with this addition. Conklin has shown his skill in outplaying safeties and linebackers during games, while Ruckert has a clear path to show his abilities and help the team.

Wilson and Conklin are buys for me. If I am in the late first round in redraft or a dynasty startup, and Garrett Wilson is there? I would have a hard time not taking him, especially in the one QB format. 

 

Aaron Rodgers’ and Breece Hall’s Value

This signing ultimately does not affect the value of Aaron Rodgers and Breece Hall. Sleeper projects Rodgers as the 20th-ranked fantasy quarterback this year. It’s early in the draft season, so I expect that value to rise to 13-18. But I think that’s still too low. 

We don’t know how Rodgers will respond to the Achilles injury, though all signs point towards him being almost fully healthy. Honestly, his value dropped because many people don’t like him personally, not because of his skills. I am sure that makes him happy.

If you’re trying to win, Rodgers could be a cheap option to get. If you have a stacked WR and RB group, you can get away with a QB outside the top 10 but with top 10 upside. From 2009 on, Rodgers hasn’t been top 10 only four times. Three were due to injury, and the other was the last year in Green Bay. There, a rebuild happened, but Rodgers still ranked as QB13. His value should be around the top 10 range until he proves otherwise.

I know we talked a lot about Rodgers, but that is because there really isn’t much to bring up about Breece Hall. Hall should be the RB1 or RB2 coming off draft boards in startups and redraft leagues. The only argument, which is for a dynasty debate later, is if you value Hall or Bijan Robinson more. 

Breece Hall will demand seven to eight in the box because he is explosive between the numbers and on the outside runs. He will only continue to prove in the passing game as well with Rodgers at the helm. Expect a massive year from Hall, but you should’ve expected that before this signing anyway.

 

To review:

Garret Wilson and Tyler Conklin’s values are all up.

Aaron Rodgers and Breece Hall’s value remains the same.

Buy Mike Williams.

 

Mike Williams has burned fantasy owners in the past, and many have already traded him. For those people who have traded FOR him, hold. If a manager is looking to trade for Mike Williams, go buy Mike Williams. His value is probably a late second or third-round rookie pick. You won’t find someone with Williams’ production in this rookie class that late.


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