June 21, 2024

Dynasty Dilemma: Tyreek Hill

6 min read

Dynasty Dilemma: Tyreek Hill

 

Tyreek Hill is one of the most popular wide receivers in the NFL and in fantasy football. His popularity is partly thanks to his flashy playstyle and cheeky attitude in the game. Hill is now going into his eighth year in the league. We all know his name, and we all know his game. Speed. Speed is Hill’s game, and boy, does he do it well. 

 

With a career total of 598 receptions, 8,340 receiving yards, and 63 touchdowns, Hill has quite the NFL career totals. He is still in his prime at 29 years old, and I don’t see him slowing down anytime soon.

 

 

REASONS TO BUY

 

CONSISTENCY

Tyreek Hill has been at the pinnacle of fantasy wide receivers for over half a decade and has a great outlook going into the 2023 season. Hill’s consistency comes in more than just a fantasy point aspect, too. Hill has played in all 17 games of the last two seasons. He has missed a mere six games in a seven year career so far. Unheard of in today’s NFL.

As great as health is, let’s look at some of Hill’s best years with the overall fantasy finish:

2017 (WR4 STD WR8 PPR) –   105 targets, 75 receptions, 1,183 yards, and 7 touchdowns

2018 (WR1 overall) – 137 targets, 87 receptions, 1,479 yards, and 12 touchdowns

2020 (WR2 overall) – 135 targets, 87 receptions, 1,276 yards, and 15 touchdowns

2021 (WR7 STD WR6 PPR) – 159 targets, 111 receptions, 1,239 yards, and 9 touchdowns

2022 (WR3 STD WR2 PPR) – 170 targets, 119 receptions, 1,710 yards, and 7 touchdowns

 

It simply doesn’t get more consistent than this. In 2022, Hill hit career highs in receptions, targets, and receiving yards. Last year, while ranking 29th among WRs in snaps played, Tyreek led the league in yards per route run (YPRR) with an incredible 3.20. The next closest receiver was Justin Jefferson, with 2.62 YPRR. He also finished 3rd in the NFL in target share with 30.1% of his team’s targets. This was only behind Adams at 32.3% and Kupp, who only played nine games, at 30.9%. With another year for Tua to improve and McDaniel to get more comfortable, I don’t see Hill’s stats going any lower this upcoming season. Also, look for that seven touchdown mark to get closer to or even go over double digits.

 

COACHING

Mike McDaniel had an up-and-down first year with the Miami Dolphins in 2022, finishing 9-8. Say what you will about Mike McDaniel and his professionalism. Two things are clear; his players love playing for him, and he knows the game of football very well. McDaniel calls his own plays, coming from an Offensive Coordinator job in San Francisco before going to Miami. The Dolphins finished sixth in total yards and yards per game last year. For Hill’s side of it, they finished fourth in passing yards per game, so even better for him. With just one year under his belt as a Head Coach, I’m excited to see what McDaniel can get going in his second year in 2023.

 

WEEK-WINNING ABILITY

There are very few players across all of fantasy football that can get you a win on any given week by themselves. Hill is undoubtedly one of those players. Hill has scored 20+ points in over thirty games, 30+ points in eight games, 40+ in two games, and 50+ points in one game in his career. For fantasy purposes, these numbers can barely be matched by anyone to ever play in the NFL. When Hill scores 20+ points, you are in a great position to win your fantasy week against your opponent.

 

 

 

REASONS TO SELL

 

OFF-THE-FIELD ISSUES

Issues for players off of the field can be many things. However, Hill’s issues have all had a common denominator from him. Violence. From a domestic violence arrest in 2014 in college, to a child abuse investigation in 2019 during his time with the Chiefs, and most recently, an assault and battery allegation in 2023 while with the Dolphins. The NFL did not suspend Hill on either occasion.

 

AGE

We must discuss age if we are really trying to poke holes at Hill. At nearly 29.5 years old as a wide receiver, he is in an age bracket that doesn’t typically see a ton of production value in fantasy football. There is always a year for wide receivers where they take a big step back in productivity right before their falling off. The question is, is this Hill’s year to take a step back?

 

POSSIBLE RETIREMENT

Hill has told reporters that he will finish his current contract with the Dolphins and then retire following the 2025 season. He isn’t the first player to give a retirement announcement early, and he won’t be the last. But will he really stay true to his word? He also wouldn’t be the first player to say he would retire and then either not retire or retire for a short period. However, Hill does have a plan that he talked about when he initially mentioned retirement. He wants to get deep into the competitive video game scene. If you have yet to watch him stream on Twitch, you should. He is already using his popularity and platform to create a following and hopes to build a team of content creators and athletes alike. In the same interview, Hill also mentioned getting into the business side of football and coaching. It seems as if only time will tell.

 

 

VERDICT

There have been very few wide receivers to give us a run of fantasy dominance like Tyreek Hill has given us over the last seven years. Hill holds the record for the most receiving yards through the first nine games of an NFL season with a whopping 1,104 yards. The stats are there, and when you watch him live or on tv, you are always watching and waiting to see him torch the defense and throw up his classic peace sign. 

 

So, what is the right move to make with Tyreek Hill in fantasy football?

 

It is rare to see a 29-year-old wide receiver in people’s top 10 dynasty list for WRs, yet Hill is in most of them. So, for dynasty purposes, you have two options. First, you can keep him and ride out the rest of his years, however long that may be. Second, you can trade him away for younger assets that you hope can develop into stars. It very well may take something like retiring for the gaming scene to end such a fantastic career like Tyreek’s, so we can see what the right choice is.  Personally, I think I am riding out the rest of Hill’s career alongside him and hoping the ship doesn’t go down sinking. Hill has been far too dominant to let slip away. Also, the agony of playing against him after trading him away seems too great. That being said, if you are a rebuilding team or know someone in the middle of a championship window that needs WR, you may be able to get great value and move on from him. For me, it would take one of the young and proven studs like Wilson, Olave, London, plus more for me to part ways with Hill.

Here at Dynasty Pros, we mainly focus on Dynasty Leagues. However, for redraft leagues, you should be taking Hill in the first round with no questions asked. Chase, Jefferson, and Kupp are the other receivers in the tier with Hill, and all four have a legit argument for the WR1 spot. Hill is a top 6/7 pick and can be argued as a clear top 3 choice. His price is high, but so is his consistent output. You can feel very confident with Hill as your WR1 for your team. Starting your draft with Hill, your team is now very flexible for your next pick. You can grab a top-tier RB and have balance. You could also afford to go early QB/TE in Round two or three, with Hill making up for lost points elsewhere. 

 

HOLD