Dynasty Dilemma: Tyler Lockett

Under the coaching of Pete Carroll, the Seahawk's offense has always been steady. In recent years they have been able to reach the postseason but have consistently failed to get to that NFC championship. With 2023 NFL draft picks Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) at receiver and Zack Charbonnet at running back, the Seahawks are looking to add depth to this offense and provide competition to start. Everyone knows that the WR1 on this Seahawks offense is DK Metcalf, but now, with the addition of JSN, people are questioning the share of targets that the current WR2, Tyler Lockett, might receive. I am here to put these questions to rest and show you the value that Tyler Lockett brings. 

REASONS TO BUY

Consistency

Tyler Lockett was drafted in 2015 by the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2019, Tyler Lockett has put up four consecutive seasons finishing with over 1000 receiving yards, nine touchdowns, and over 100 targets, with DK Metcalf as the primary receiver. Tyler Lockett is being taken 2-3 rounds after wide receivers like Jerry Jeudy and Mike Williams, averaging 100 fewer yards and two fewer touchdowns than Tyler Lockett. He finished as WR13 and has over a 70% catch rate which is better than players like Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Christian Kirk, and Keenan Allen. Tyler Lockett is being taken 3-4 rounds after Chargers WR Kennan Allen, who finished with 400 fewer yards, five fewer touchdowns, and 20 fewer receptions. To add to his incredible catch rate, Tyler Lockett has a 2% drop rate on passes 0-9 yards and a 9.1% drop rate on passes 20+ yards with a 0% drop rate from passes between 10-19 yards. 

STATS VIA PFF: 

Every one of the four wide receivers listed above averaged fewer touchdowns, fewer yards, fewer targets, and fewer receptions. Still, all managed to be ranked above Tyler Lockett and are taken above Tyler Lockett in drafts. Keenan Allen is older than Tyler Lockett, but people continue to draft him despite his age. Tyler Lockett is younger and more efficient while still being the WR2 in Seattle. The last column of this chart illustrates that Lockett has the highest ADP at 73rd overall and the 31st WR but has the best statistics out of someone like Tee Higgins, who is ranked 15 WRs above. 

Good Offense

Geno Smith finished as the QB5 last season with over 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. Kenneth Walker and Tyler Lockett shared the team lead with nine touchdowns. Considering that Tyler Lockett is still seen as a WR2, he finishes with more touchdowns than DK Metcalf and only has 15 fewer receiving yards, even when DK has 24 more targets. If anything, the stats show that Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf share the role as WR1, but DK has an ADP of 36th overall, whereas Tyler Lockett's ADP is 73rd overall. Pete Carroll is also an established coach, and with the help of Shane Waldron (Offensive coordinator), the Seahawks continue to fight for the top of the NFC West. 

REASONS TO SELL

Production

Well, everyone is thinking the same thing… Won't Tyler Lockett's numbers diminish with the addition of JSN? Undoubtedly, the Seahawks have a plan for JSN because they would not waste their first-round pick on a WR they have no intention of playing. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has JSN ranked as the WR1 coming out of this draft class, and he produced over 1,550 receiving yards and nine touchdowns his sophomore year at Ohio State. There has also been recent news on his strides during training camp, and Pete Carroll likes what he sees. "We're looking for the spots we can put him in, how to move him around and see how much he can handle. There's nothing that's holding him back. He's hitting it off with Geno well right now." (Pete Carroll)." It is no doubt that JSN is a talented athlete who knows the game of football. Pete Carroll said they are looking for a spot for him, indicating that their two WRs are already set and looking to utilize his talent in a different location. JSN will be a part of this offense, but Tyler Lockett will not lose his share of production. 

Age

Tyler Lockett is now 30 years old and was drafted in 2015. Everyone knows football is a demanding sport to play as you continue to get older. One prime example of this is Adam Thielen. Adam Thielen is 32 years old, turning 33 this year. The height of Thielen's career was seen in 2016-2018 when he reached the 1000-yard receiving mark, but once he got to 2019, he began to fall off and reach the 500-700-yard receiving area. Tyler Lockett could see a similar situation where his age could cause him not to produce the numbers you are looking for. However, Adam Thielen's production was cut short due to the selection of Justin Jefferson in 2020, which moved Thielen to WR2. 

VERDICT

All in all, even with the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the crowded receiving core, Tyler Lockett will be the one WR whose production will not be affected. For the last four years, even with DK Metcalf, Lockett has been consistent with his 1000-yard seasons and 8+ touchdowns. Even with JSN, I am confident his workload will not diminish, and he will be the one WR staying consistent. Considering this is a Dynasty League, I would buy Tyler Lockett. The Dynasty Pros Trade Calculator believes Tyler Locket can be traded for 2024 late 2nd or Early 3rd. At that price, you can't 'smash' accept quickly enough!

BUY