Dynasty Dilemma: Trey Lance (Updated)
UPDATE: Per Adam Schefter, Lance was traded to the Dallas Cowboys. Schefter’s report was released at 4:22 pm on 8/25/2022, about 3 and a half hours before this article was posted. It is important to note that the trade does not change the following analysis. The only change is the potential for Lance to start if there is an injury to Dak Prescott. You may proceed as outlined.
The year is 2000. A young man walks into a fortune teller’s shop on his town’s main street. Not in the downtown area, but on the edge of town. The man sits down at the crystal ball and the fortune teller lays out the wildest tale. She tells the young man, an expectant father that he will have a son. That son will grow up to be a highly coveted quarterback. That quarterback will earn a starting position for his national champion college team as a sophomore, lead that team to a 16-0 record and another national championship, and throw 28 touchdowns that year without throwing an interception in 287 attempts. The boy would also rush for 1100 yards that season and add 14 more touchdowns. The young man is stunned.
The fortune teller goes on to tell the man that his son will enter the 2021 NFL Draft at the age of 20, and be picked by the San Francisco 49ers with the 3rd overall pick, after trading 2 first round picks and 2 other picks to move up and draft their guy. He will eventually grow into a man standing 6’4″, weighing 225 pounds, and running a 4.5 second 40-yard dash. Now the young father-to-be is bewildered. His son is going to be a superstar!
6 months earlier, a different expectant father goes into a different fortune teller’s shop. The fortune teller explains that HIS son is going to be 6’1″, run a 4.85 40, have an unheralded college career on a normal 4-year track, and be passed on in HIS draft 261 times, before the 49ers draft him to be a backup, maybe, and he’ll earn the nickname given the last pick, “Mr. Irrelevant.” This young father is also bewildered. He wanted a superstar. Now he’s convinced he’s got a palooka.
Neither fortune teller would see that 23 years later, the palooka would be announced as the starting QB for the 49ers, and the shine would be off of the superstar. The 49ers would be scrambling to figure out what to do with the product of their huge investment. YOU are also wondering what to do with that huge investment.
We have been in a Dynasty League holding pattern with Lance for, going on, 3 seasons. There is no new statistical analysis that can change that. Upside is the only argument to be made in Lance’s favor. It’s still a good one.
None of the events of the last three seasons have changed Lance’s POTENTIAL. He’s still the physical specimen that he was before, as noted above. He still has the same arm strength, the same foot speed and elusiveness, and the same brain that Kyle Shanahan dubbed highly intelligent.
He’s extremely intelligent. He knows how to handle situations. He knows how to carry himself. The guy that I see on tape that I tried to describe that I see such a natural quarterback, such a smart player.
Let’s look at Jordan Love, for an example. He is the same size as Lance, but as slow as Purdy. Love was drafted the year before Lance, and didn’t see the field as a rookie. He played sparingly in his next two seasons and has only seen regular season game action 10 times for the Packers. By every indication, however, he’s ready to start at age 24. He’ll turn 25 mid-season and Lance will be 25 just short of 2 years from now.
Lance has plenty of time to assume his final form. With his draft profile hampered by injury and team situation, he has an opportunity to add on to the improvements he’s made with his technique. He just needs reps. He’ll find them wherever he is because the NFL isn’t going to give up on him, and neither should you.
Buy low, sell high is the Dynasty mantra. This will be the lowest ever point for Lance’s value, until he retires.
Again, there is very little statistical basis to justify selling Lance. You could point to injury history or throwing interceptions against the Raiders in his first 2023 pre-season game. What it boils down to is that he doesn’t have a job, at the moment. He will be, for the time being, a roster suck. He won’t be startable in your lineup.
Rostered: depending on your league environment, Lance is a hold. If you have the roster depth to absorb a zero production wait-n’-see, wait it out. At this point, nobody wants him. Do not sell low.
Trades: Throw out offers, again if you can absorb the lack of production. If you can’t handle the roster spot, create a dynastyprosfootball.com Trey Lance alert and stay on top of the player news to scoop him off waivers as soon as he gets another opportunity.
Startup and Redraft: Avoid
Brendon is from Northern California and has been playing fantasy sports for over 25 years. He started sports writing 10 years ago. He is an alumnus of Arkansas Tech University, and follows the UC Davis Aggies, Cal Bears, and Arkansas Razorbacks in the NCAA. He is a die-hard fan of the Raiders, wherever they are, the San Francisco Giants, and Sacramento Kings. To fill his time outside of sports, he acts, writes and directs, and does sketch, improv, and stand-up comedy.