• Mon. Feb 26th, 2024

Dynasty Dilemma: Rookie Pick 1.01

By Darren Smith (@FFBirdGang)

 

 

Bijan Robinson is the consensus 2023 1.01 in most Dynasty rookie drafts whether it’s a 1QB league or Superflex. You won’t find many mock drafts or rankings without the stud running back out of Texas leading the way. However, there is a case to be made that Bijan may not be the best choice for a 1st overall pick depending on your team’s structure.

 

The QB Market

Good Quarterbacks are becoming scarce. With retirement of veterans like Tom Brady, and soon to be Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, top end QBs that we used to rely on are hanging up the cleats. There are also players at the position that have just simply lost their touch, and maybe a starting job, like Carson Wentz and Jimmy Garappolo. Russell Wilson could even be thrown into that category. Some just can’t stay healthy like Matthew Stafford. A lot of Dynasty teams are starving for a solid QB2 to play in their SuperFlex spot.

The 2023 class has a wealth of Quarterback talent. CJ Stroud (OSU) leads the group in passing skill putting on a show in the NFL Combine, and Bryce Young (Alabama) has been referenced as a “mini Patrick Mahomes”. Anthony Richardson (Florida) put up record breaking stats in athleticism at the Combine, and Will Levis (Kentucky) has a cannon arm.

 

Rebuilding Teams

Most teams that own the 1.01 are struggling teams and are in the rebuilding process. The best way to rebuild a team in the Super Flex format is to start with adding QBs. Teams that get to championships likely have two top scoring QBs as they score the most points on average, and have a large spread of scoring between the top and bottom tier. QBs also typically have the longest shelf life in the NFL. Running back was one of the most lucrative in fantasy football. Teams are shifting away from using a singular running back in their backfield, commonly known as a “bellcow”, and instead rotate 3-4 RBs. This is due to high risk of injury at the position, giving running backs the least amount of shelf life for your dynasty teams.

While Bijan may go off in his rookie season, you likely don’t have the other pieces just to make a run at the title if you acquired the 1.01 from coming in last. With RB’s shelf life in Dynasty being so short, you’re only putting yourself in a bad spot drafting Bijan. Look what happened to guys like Jonathan Taylor and CEH, who were taken in 2020 rookie drafts over QB’s like Joe Burrow. JT was called a generational talent just like Bijan is now, had a great season, got hurt, and his value has declined. Burrow on the other hand has succeeded, and is now a top 4 pick in startup drafts. If your team got last, and that’s the reason you own the 1.01, Bijan Robinson should not be your pick and you should look at two options: trading back a few spots, or drafting a QB at the 1.01.

 

Trade Value

 

Currently the consensus dynasty RB1 ahead of every other RB, Bijan’s value can’t really get much higher than it already is. Basically you are drafting him at his maximum value. If he’s anything but spectacular, his value will lower. If by chance he gets injured, he will miss time, get a year older, and you’re left with declining value. If you are not ready to compete, you don’t want the risk of injury and a short shelf life on one of your top assets. On the flip side, these talented QB’s are not ranked very high compared to the rest of the NFL QBs yet. Most are not including them in the Top 12. This means that when one of these rookie QBs inevitably starts for a team and succeeds, their value is going shoot up. I think Stroud, Young, and Richardson all have the potential to be more valuable than Bijan in a short period of time. It may take as little as Bijan being drafted to a not-so-run-friendly team. With those QBs likely all starting in Week 1 of the NFL season, they could break out immediately.

With Bijan being so sought after, the 1.01 pick holds tremendous value. If you are a rebuilding team with the 1.01 and want to follow the advice of taking a QB, shop that pick! Trading back even just a few spots can result in getting your pick of QB while gaining more picks in the process to further your rebuild. I personally have seen a trade of the 1.02 and the 1.04 for the 1.01 because a dynasty manager wanted Bijan that bad. In that case, you get the QB of your choice at 1.02, and another elite prospect at 1.04 - possibly even another QB. You can even punt your rebuild to next year, which also has a great QB class, by acquiring multiple 2024 1sts for your 1.01. This pick can also be used to trade for a veteran QB. Since you’re rebuilding, you can feel comfortable with trading 1.01 for QB’s that are currently viewed as uncertain, but still elite, like Kyler Murray (ACL) and Lamar Jackson (Contract).

 

When Should You Take Bijan?

If you paid up for the 1.01 by trading, you're likely going after the top RB in this class. Your team is ready to compete if you have two surefire Top 12 QBs in dynasty and a solid supporting cast. In this case, by all means use your 1.01 and take a stud running back. While his value may not age as well as the QBs, Bijan may be good enough to take you to a championship if your team is ready.

If you don’t have a team that is ready, I highly recommend that you try and trade that pick back a few spots with some other picks/assets included and take one of these rookie QBs, or trade for a top end veteran QB. I’m fine with using the 1.01 to take a Quarterback to start your rebuild - specifically CJ Stroud, who I think is the best pure thrower coming out of this class. Yes, you can probably get more from trading, but you could get managers that don’t want to bite. Quarterbacks are so important to your Dynasty team, especially in a rebuild. With the market scarce, the QB talent in this class, and the value 1.01 holds, Bijan Robinson may not be the pick for you. He is an elite talent, but depending on your team’s situation, you shouldn’t blindly take him at the 1.01.

 

 

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