Dynasty Dilemma: DK Metcalf

 

The ever-changing landscape of pro football has player values constantly on the move. And as we inch towards another NFL season, it's our job here at Dynasty Pros to keep you informed of those changes. Perhaps no player has seen his value shift as much as DK Metcalf. Rewind to April. It's the week before the NFL draft. A spectacle in and of itself. The draft has become increasingly more difficult to predict. And perhaps no pick embodies that unpredictability like the Seattle Seahawks selection of Jaxson Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba was widely considered the best receiving prospect in the draft, but the Seahawks already possessed one of the best receiving duos in the league. So it was a real head scratcher when NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell stepped to the podium, and announced the selection of Smith-Njigba. Perhaps Seattle GM John Schneider thought Smith-Njigba had fallen too far and was too good a value to pass on, or maybe they just wanted to give their newly inked QB another weapon with which to work? Whatever the case, he left fantasy managers scratching their heads and handed us the job of figuring out what to do in the aftermath.

REASON TO BUY

Metcalf is one of the most physically imposing receivers to ever play in the NFL. His physique is reminiscent of Hall Of Famer Terrell Owens. His size/speed combination is unmatched and he's used those physical gifts to amass more than 4,200 yards and snag 35 touchdowns since entering the league. Those numbers are not only second to former teammate AJ Brown but place the duo among elite company. Just six wide receivers have managed to eclipse those markers through their first four years. Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, AJ Green, Odell Beckham Jr and the duo from Ole Miss. Metcalf is still just 25 years old and he's proven quite durable, having never missed an NFL game. He enjoyed the highest target total of his career last season and his 27 red-zone targets were third in the league. There was a legitimate effort to get Metcalf involved in the red-zone.

 

REASON TO SELL

As amazing as his numbers have been, one could argue they have also been a bit underwhelming. Despite Seattle making an effort to utilize the size advantage Metcalf enjoys over most every NFL corner, the results were pretty abysmal. Only rookie Garrett Wilson converted fewer red-zone looks into scores. And while Metcalf's targets were a career and team high, QB Geno Smith was actually more efficient throwing to his teammate,Tyler Lockett. For his part, Lockett nearly matched Metcalf's yardage total and outpaced his touchdown production despite fewer red-zone targets than Texans running back Rex Burkhead. Some of that may be a fluke but at what point do we start to consider Metcalf is merely a good player and not a great one?
And then there is Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks offense was really good last year. Except in the red-zone, where they ranked 28th in scoring efficiency. The Smith-Njigba conversation has been fierce since the minute Roger Goodell boomed his name across Union Station in Kansas City. And during his highly productive sophomore season at Ohio State, JSN was one of the most efficient red zone scorers in the country, turning seven red-zone targets into six touchdowns. So perhaps the Seahawks siphon a few targets from Metcalf in order to create opportunities for their evasive new rookie?

VERDICT

There's no doubt that the addition of Smith-Njigba creates more competition for targets, however, the addition(s) and I'll include Zach Charbonnet, should make the Seahawks offense as a whole even better. Which could create more prime opportunities, potentially offsetting any target loss. Metcalf is just 25 years old and the addition of JSN didn't change his talent, nor did it suddenly erase the physical advantage he enjoys every Sunday. The 2022 season sure seems like his floor... and we've yet to see him paired with a truly elite Quarterback. When you factor the hit to his value this summer, Metcalf is someone I'm looking to acquire. Savvy fantasy managers know that situation changes quickly in the NFL and barring injury Metcalf should have five or six highly productive years in front of him.

BUY