Dynasty Dilemma: Cole Kmet
By Doug Harrelson
This season for those that roster Kmet has been quite the roller coaster. He was starting to fall in the range of the ultimate roster clogger. You couldn’t start him but you also could not cut him. You were stuck in limbo with him holding up a valuable roster spot that could have been used for waiver moves or trading picks for players. The last few weeks that has all turned around as Kmet has gone from unstartable to TE2 in PPG since week 8 with only Travis Kelce ahead of him. The breakout we were all hoping for all offseason feels like it is finally manifesting itself in the most critical part of the fantasy season. Let’s break down this Dynasty Dilemma.
Did you not just read the paragraph above? TE2 the past few weeks and only behind the biggest outlier at any position in fantasy football in Travis Kelce. Kmet has scored 5 touchdowns the past 3 weeks as well as over 6 targets the last two games. This was the Cole Kmet we were all hoping for all offseason. This massive step up isn’t just because of Kmet but also because Justin Fields has shown incredible growth in the midway part of his second season. We very easily could be discussing him instead of discussing Kmet right now. The Bears offense seems to have found a bit of a groove in recent weeks and the rising tide raises all ships.
Kmet was an exciting prospect coming out of Notre Dame with his natural route running ability and great hands. Two years into his career he had shown a lot of flashes of everything we saw on tape from him coming out of college. The beginning part of this season was a bit of a struggle for the entirety of the Bears offense. The guy that we are seeing now is the guy we saw in college and in his early NFL career.
Of course Kmet has been hot recently, have you seen the schedule? The back to back matchups of Miami and Detroit, two defenses that have been lit up by everyone, has led Kmet to two monster games. Before those games Kmet was under 17 yards receiving in 5 of the 8 games before that. Before these past two weeks Kmet had only had over 3 targets in one game. There is a very real chance that as the schedule goes forward his target share and efficiency both take a hit. The man has touchdowns on 5 of his last 11 receptions. Regression is coming for Mr. Kmet, best to move him while you can.
Dynasty is a game about buying low and selling high, if you did want to buy Kmet, you had plenty of time to do it. He was basically free a couple weeks ago for people trying to open up roster spots. Now he will cost you a 1st in a TE premium league and likely two 2nds in non premium leagues. Buying a player after a big spike is how you end up behind on assets going forward.
As always, buying and selling are very cost dependent so you may need to see what the Kmet manager in your league thinks and not try to force it. Despite it being a couple weeks later, I still think he is a solid buy. This is the guy we thought he was coming out of college and the improvements made by Fields cannot be understated. I would be willing to spend the 1st in TE premium leagues but not in non premium leagues, there I would see if two 2nds could get it done. If I already roster Kmet I am thrilled with recent events. I may listen to offers but unless it’s a big overpay, I am likely gonna stay put.