Dynasty Dilemma: Amon-Ra St. Brown
by Bob Miller
This past season had to be incredibly frustrating for the Detroit Lions fans. First, they trade away their franchise quarterback only to watch him win a Superbowl. In exchange they get back.. Jared Goff. They can’t seem to get anything out of their former #3 overall pick Jeff Okudah. TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift missed multiple games due to injury. The only bright spot.. wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.
The Reason to Sell
When you first look at St. Brown’s stats you can’t help but get excited. 90 rec, 912 yds, 5 touchdowns are some great numbers, but a little misleading. I just don’t see him getting 90 catches next season without a significant injury to TJ Hockenson. Keep in mind that the Lions are pretty weak at WR and could look to spend a high pick on another receiver in this year’s draft.
St. Brown averaged only 7.02 fantasy points per game for the first 12 weeks. When TJ Hockenson went down St. Brown’s targets jumped from 4.7 all the way up to 11.5 per game. During that span he averaged 25.18 fantasy points per game. I just don’t see him putting up those kinds of numbers with a healthy TJ Hockenson playing.
Most would agree that Jared Goff is an average quarterback at best. Detroit seems to be committed to him for at least another season. I know, St. Brown put up those incredible numbers with Goff at quarterback. Goff seems to favor one guy when throwing the ball. Hockenson could be that guy once again. Combine that with the return of D’Andre Swift to the passing game and you could potentially have a huge headache with St. Brown’s performance next season.
The Reason to Buy
There is absolutely no argument with Amon-Ra St. Brown's talent. I could be completely wrong and he picks up right where he left off. There’s no doubt he has the potential to put up WR1 numbers, as he did to finish the season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is only 22 and won’t turn 23 until the end of October. His career has just started. I said previously that Jared Goff usually favors one target, but has proven otherwise in the past with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods both being very fantasy relevant. You just can’t deny what he could be in that Detroit offense. If he gets 8-9 targets per game next year, he should put up solid WR2 numbers.
This isn’t so much why you should buy, but why you should hold. If you are a St. Brown owner, you most likely don’t have any real kind of investment in him. He was either a 2nd round rookie pick or a waiver wire pickup in dynasty leagues. Most owners didn’t acquire him via trade due to him really breaking out after the most fantasy trade deadlines passed. Listen, if you have him, you’re playing with house money. You have nothing to lose.
Most drafts and dynasty leagues I’m seeing are treating St. Brown as a low end WR2/Flex. I'm just not seeing that. Think of that Cooper Kupp/Jared Goff connection. In my opinion St. Brown is Jared Goff's new "Go-To" guy. At St. Brown's current ADP/Price, he could be a league winner this coming season. I'm buying him everywhere I can get him.
Bob Miller founded Dynasty Pros in 2019 after spending several years writing and ranking for various websites. Bob has been playing fantasy football for over 25 years. He is very experienced in a variety of different formats including Dynasty, Redraft, IDP, & Best Ball. Bob is especially passionate about IDP, as he has developed the Dynasty Pros IDP Scoring System that is used by thousands of IDP Leagues today. His sole mission is to help everyone win their Fantasy League’s Championship.