Dynasty Debate: Top Young Quarterback
Dynasty Debate: Who is the Dynasty QB with four or fewer years of experience that is best to build your roster around?
The most critical position to solidify on any dynasty roster is quarterback. Draft the right rookie, and you are set for years. Or, trade for the right quarterback early in their career and then focus on other positions as you build your Dynasty juggernaut around the quarterback you secured via trade.
Bob Miller (@DynastyBobFF) and I will debate which quarterback with four years or less experience is the best target to build your roster around in this edition of Dynasty Debates.
Read along as Goody and Bob Miller debate the topic, and you, the reader, get to vote at the end to decide our winner!
Which Young Quarterback (4 years or less) are you Taking?
Goody: After careful consideration, I believe that Joe Burrow, with four or fewer years of experience, is the franchise quarterback to build around. I also considered Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Herbert. And while each quarterback offered varying reasons to be the cornerstone of a fantasy roster, Joe Burrow is the best equipped to sustain his production for the foreseeable future over the others.
Goody's Dynasty Quarterback Choice: Joe Burrow
Bob Miller: I like Goody's selection of Joe Burrow. I was strongly considering him. Of the quarterback choices that Goody listed, Burrow is the quarterback to own. However, I decided to go in a different direction by selecting none other than CJ Stroud. To me, CJ Stroud is Joe Burrow, only five years younger. With this being a Dynasty League Debate, Stroud was my obvious choice.
Bob's Dynasty Quarterback Choice: CJ Stroud
Goody: CJ Stroud has been an impressive rookie. That has been obvious through the resurgence of the Houston Texans. However, more than one year of production is needed to warrant Stroud's inclusion as the top choice at quarterback. In 2012, Robert Griffin III had the third-best rookie quarterback season; in 2015, Jameis Winston had the 7th-best rookie year. Neither player was a viable fantasy starter, even just two years later. A player should establish a consistent track record to be a franchise cornerstone. Stroud needs a second year of similar production to warrant the cornerstone tag.
Bob: I get Goody's point about having only one year of experience, but at one time, Joe Burrow had only one year of experience. Remember that after Burrow's rookie year, he was immediately considered a top 5 dynasty quarterback. That's how I see CJ Stroud. Up until Week 12, Stroud was the number 5 scoring quarterback. He averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game, higher than the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Brock Purdy. Unfortunately, in Week 13, the Texans lost sensational rookie wide receiver Tank Dell to a season-ending ACL tear. Of course, this would affect CJ Stroud's fantasy production for the remainder of the season.
Goody: For accuracy, Joe Burrow only finished as QB25 after his rookie season; of course, this was due to an injury that forced Burrow to play only in 10 games. However, Joe Burrow's pedigree is evident. Not only was he the 1st overall pick of the NFL draft (2020), but he was also coming off an epic college career that saw him win a national championship, leading LSU by throwing for 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns his senior year while also winning the Heisman trophy. And I know Bob wants to talk about CJ Stroud's impressive seasons at Ohio State, but I am quick to emphasize that CJ Stroud wasn't even considered the best quarterback in his draft class.
Bob: To some, CJ Stroud was considered the number 2 quarterback behind Bryce Young. I was not one of those people. Stroud was far and away my top-ranked quarterback in last year's draft. Burrow had an incredible season at LSU, but I have no reason to compare college stats between him and Stroud. I'm focusing on my Dynasty team and its future. Listen, Burrow is a dog; he's got that swag. Not that Burrow is old, but he's going on age 28, and Stroud is going on 23. Age has a specific impact on decision-making in dynasty leagues. Combine that with the potential of Cincinnati losing Tee Higgins to free agency; that's concerning. Burrow could lose his top red zone target. That could knock him down a tier in rankings/production if that's the case.
Goody: Bob, you used the word: could. Could an injury happen? Yes. Could the offensive line fall apart? Yes. Could Joe Burrow get injured again? Yes. Could the Offensive Coordinator leave? Yes, and it did. However, that only affects Burrow a little since Zac Taylor is essentially the OC anyway. What I look at is on the field. I don't play all the games of what 'could' happen. Here is what I know. CJ Stroud played five games against Top-5 Defenses last year. In those five games, CJ Stroud was a combined 89 for 145 yards, 922 yards, and four total touchdowns. His per-game averages were 18 completions per game for 184 yards and less than one touchdown per game. So why did Stroud have such great numbers in 2023? Houston played a schedule that included eight bottom-tier defenses, where Stroud's stats mainly were amassed.
Good quarterbacks should feast on the bottom-tier defenses; the elite quarterbacks feast on any defense. Stroud is not a cornerstone player. He has yet to show the ability to dominate a game against a top-tier defense.
Bob: Come on, man, Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons of any quarterback in recent memory. Stroud averaged 18.73 for the season, with him losing Tank Dell. Before Burrow went down in Week 11, he averaged only 15.32 fantasy points per game. That Bengals offense was highly inconsistent, which concerned Joe Burrow owners. So, let's not compare who did what and against whom. Our debate may never end if we do that. The fact of the matter is this: Burrow will probably lose Tee Higgins, which concerns me. They did lose their offensive coordinator, which could hurt his performance. This could firmly drop Burrow into tier two, whereas Stroud could be heading into tier one.
Goody: It's ok, Bob. I would avoid data if I were you, too. Because the data, when broken down, needs to reflect better for CJ Stroud. Most quarterbacks who are cornerstones in fantasy football usually have remarkable traits that opposing defenses can't handle. Joe Burrow's best seasons were 458.98 and 436.24 points using Sleeper settings for quarterbacks. Last year, Stroud had 345.02. Stroud is nowhere near the level Burrow has produced in the NFL.
And this debate isn't about what quarterback might be good. Instead, as we build our Dynasty Rosters for 2024, which quarterback should be the cornerstone of that roster? And that player is Joe Burrow. Some fantasy managers may love risk, while others try to minimize it. When building a roster, I might swing at certain positions (WR or TE), but my QB1 needs to be as simple as possible. And the advanced metrics prove it!
Stroud's accuracy rating was 6.2 (#24)
Stroud's pressure completion rating was 52.3% (#25)
Stroud's red zone completion rating was 46.9% (#26)
To project Stroud to be a cornerstone quarterback for your fantasy team, you must take a leap of faith that Stroud will improve these ratings substantially.
Burrow has proven he is a gamer. Looking specifically at the seasons, Burrow was healthy and played an entire season; he finished as QB #7 and QB #4. Stroud was QB #11 this year.
Joe Burrow is the best choice to be your QB1 on your Dynasty rosters with four or fewer years of experience.
Bob: Goody, you make some excellent points here. One of those points is that Stroud is just a rookie. If we want to compare rookie seasons, Burrow finished as the 25th-best quarterback, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. Stroud finished this year at 18.7 fantasy points per game. I'm not knocking Burrow by any means; he's a proven commodity in fantasy football. However, this debate is about building our dynasty team for the future. With Burrow most likely losing Tee Higgins to free agency and Stroud getting back Tank Dell, I'm taking the quarterback whose future production is pointing up, not down.
The two sides have spoken!
Who do you think made the best case?
Is Joe Burrow (Goody) the Dynasty QB with less than four years of experience best equipped to be the cornerstone of your dynasty roster, or is CJ Stroud (Bob) the most qualified to lead your team to Dynasty Championships?
You make the call!
If you have enjoyed this article, check out the other Dynasty Debates here:
Full time teacher, full time fantasy sports enthusiast. I try to look at fantasy sports through my own lens and share that vision with my readers I love to explore and find new, and exciting fantasy football options including: C2C, dynasty, IDP, and Devy. See me on Twitter @JGoody77
Always willing to give advice, reach out via Twitter