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The Art of the Deal

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The Art of the Deal

By Joe Goodwin

Have you ever woken up to a notification that you have received a trade offer in one of your favorite leagues only to see the offer and think what a waste? Well, you and just about everyone else has had that feeling. Curiosity peaks me to then ask, what did you do with the trade offer that was a waste? Most managers crush decline and move on, and that is the biggest mistake in fantasy.

All too often, one manager is throwing out hypothetical trades to other managers to see what an interest level might be on a particular player. For example, I recently received a trade offer for CeeDee Lamb and Chris Olave.  Each player is my WR1 and WR2.  So, obviously, the return for my top two receivers should be a lot. However I was disappointed in the offer.  Not because of the value, Nuk, Dalvin Cook, and a 2nd round pick are not a bad place to start.  I just am not interested in DeAndre Hopkins in a dynasty league.

I could have easily hit decline and been on my merry way, but that’s not what makes a good trade. Instead, I reached out to the other manager and requested more if I was to lose my top 2 receivers;who also happen to be on most analysts’ top 10 dynasty receiver lists. The offer increased to include another 2nd round pick (2024) and a third round pick (2024) which now also included Derek Carr with Olave and CeeDee..

So, the “game” of trading had begun. Although the inclusion of Derek Carr in a superflex definitely tilted the request to “too much” in my book, it did provide valuable insight to me.

Through trial and error, I can now see three things the other team is trying to accomplish:

  1. They are dedicated to winning our league now by offering substantial draft capital
  2. By asking for my top 2 receivers, this team is in need of an upgrade at that position
  3. Other teams see me as a potential trade based on my current roster

When I responded that a certain player (DeAndre Hopkins) did not interest me, the trade cooled off…and that happens. However, I have gained a lot of information through the process.

If, at some point this season I decide to punt and reload, I can always follow up with this owner to see if CeeDee or Olave are still of interest to them, and I know the level of draft capital this manager is willing to part with to get a receiver. Lastly, if CeeDee and Olave are in my long term plans, I can pivot and potentially offer another wide receiver in a smaller package to the same manager.

In each of these scenarios, I maintain flexibility.  If I am too rigid with other managers, I’ll find it difficult to find trade partners when I am ready to make a deal.  People don’t want to deal with managers that are quick to dismiss offers and not willing to negotiate.

Many managers just see an offer that they don’t like, decline, and move on. This behavior can make you an “unwilling” trade partner and those managers may be hesitant to offer you trades in the future due to your response to the current offer. Instead, I URGE you to communicate with the other team. You may end up with a package you love. You just have to start the conversation. Or, you gain information that you can use later on in the season whether with this team or a different one.  I now have a baseline of the value of those players.

Yes, you may have to clearly state that you are not interested in moving a certain player, but since the door is open, you can suggest a different player to gauge interest. Regardless of what happens, always be willing to listen and negotiate with any team. Many deals get done because two teams decided to talk and listen to each other.

Good Luck and Happy Trading!

 

2023 Devy Start-Up Mock Draft 

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2023 Devy Start-Up Mock Draft 

By Tommy Harvey

 

I love start-up season.  I especially love devy start-up season.  With the new class of incoming freshmen, it feels like I am way past due for a devy mock draft.  For this mock, I am going to assume SuperFlex and 1 PPR.  Off we go…

 

Round 1

 

1.01: Caleb Williams QB USC (2024)

1.02: Marvin Harrison Jr WR Ohio St (2024)

1.03: Drake Maye QB North Carolina (2024)

1.04: Nicholas Singleton RB Penn St (2025)

1.05: Brock Bowers TE Georgia (2024)

1.06: Treyveon Henderson RB Ohio St (2024)

1.07: Braelon Allen RB Wisconsin (2024)

1.08: Quinn Ewers QB Texas (2024)

1.09: Emeka Egbuka WR Ohio St (2024)

1.10: Drew Allar QB Penn St (2025)

1.11: Luther Burden WR Missouri (2025)

1.12: Xavier Worthy WR Texas (2024)

Round 2

 

2.01: Donovan Edwards RB Michigan (2024)

2.02: Malachai Nelson QB USC (2026)

2.03: Will Shipley RB Clemson (2024)

2.04: Raheim Sanders RB Arkansas (2024)

2.05: Quinshon Judkins RB Mississippi (2025)

2.06: Malik Nabers WR LSU (2024)

2.07: Cedric Baxter Jr. Texas (2026)

2.08: Devin Brown QB Ohio St (2025)

2.09: Branson Robinson RB Georgia (2025)

2.10: JJ McCarthy QB Michigan (2024)

2.11: Makai Lemon WR USC (2026)

2.12: Shedeur Sanders QB Colorado (2024)

 

Round 3

 

3.01: Cade Klubnik QB Clemson (2025)

3.02: Johntay Cook II WR Texas (2026)

3.03: Trevor Etienne RB Florida (2025)

3.04: Beaux Collins WR Clemson (2024)

3.05: Dante Moore QB UCLA (2026)

3.06: Jase McClellan RB Alabama (2024)

3.07: Adam Randall WR Clemson (2025)

3.08: Reuben Owens RB Texas A&M (2026)

3.09: Arch Manning QB Texas (2026)

3.10: Ja’Tavion Sanders TE Texas (2024)

3.11: Jurrion Dickey WR Oregon (2026)

3.12: Cameron Ward QB Washington St (2024)

 

Round 4

 

4.01: Jaydon Blue RB Texas (2025)

4.02: Mario Williams WR USC (2024)

4.03: Michael Trigg TE Mississippi (2024)

4.04: Barion Brown WR Kentucky (2025)

4.05: Blake Corum RB Michigan (2024)

4.06: Jadyn Ott RB California (2025)

4.07: Evan Stewart WR Texas A&M (2025)

4.08: Donovan Greene WR Wake Forest (2024)

4.09: Troy Franklin WR Oregon (2024)

4.10: Trevonte’ Citizen RB Miami (2025)

4.11: Roderick Robinson II RB Georgia (2026)

4.12: Joe Milton QB Tennessee (2024)

 

Round 5

 

5.01: Jamarion Miller RB Alabama (2025)

5.02: Miyan Williams RB Ohio St (2024)

5.03: Devontez Walker WR North Carolina (2024)

5.04: JoJo Earle WR TCU (2024)

5.05: Nathan Leacock WR Tennessee (2026)

5.06: Ty Simpson QB Alabama (2025)

5.07: Antonio Williams WR Clemson (2025)

5.08: Oscar Delp TE Georgia (2025)

5.09: Michael Penix Jr. Washington (2024)

5.10: Nico Iamaleava QB Tennessee (2026)

5.11: Kaytron Allen RB Penn St (2025)

5.12: Jacob Cowing WR Arizona (2024)

Top Free Agents Part 1: Quarterback

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Top Free Agents Part I: Quarterback

By Nick Young

With the 22-23 NFL season at a close, it is almost time to turn to free agency and where we see the big names to land. Here I list my top 3 at each significant position and my top three landing spots for each. 

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson

Possible landing spots: BAL, ATL, NYJ, LV

Lamar Jackson is easily the best QB on this list, and honestly, it’s hard to imagine him going elsewhere than Baltimore. There is speculation that Jackson could move on from Baltimore because they haven’t signed him to a long-term contract. However, the Ravens are in a better position to pursue him and will have a healthy squad to chase a playoff run in 23’. When free agency rolls around, Jackson will be Baltimore’s QB1 under the Franchise Tag or a long-term contract. With Jackson being the best quarterback on the market and consistently being a tier-1 quarterback when healthy, expect him to attempt a market resetting contract higher than Deshaun Watson. 

Derek Carr

Possible landing spots: NO, CAR, TENN, NYJ

The Derek Carr and Raiders saga is coming to a close as Carr won't waive his no-trade clause and force the Raiders to release him, which will incur a $40,000,000 cap hit. Carr won’t see a shortage of suitors, as he has already met with the Saints while exploring his trade options. The Saints will be my first choice for Carr, as there will be many weapons for him in the form of Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and a surprising weapon Juwan Johnson. However, Carolina and Tennessee are coming in hot as potential suitors and could be in the mix. Tennessee needs a veteran mentor for Malik Willis as it appears this is Ryan Tannehill’s last season with the Titans, and Carolina will be looking to start over under new HC Frank Reich. Carr will be looking for a market resetting contract, and his suitors will do anything to reach him. Expect him to get a shorter length in the range of 3-4 years, but with an average of $45 million. 

Jimmy Garoppolo

Possible landing spots: TENN, NO, CAR, NYJ, LV

Oh, Jimmy G, oh Jimmy G, my heart belongs to Jimmy G. Easily my favorite quarterback on this list. San Francisco will be moving on from the and moving forward with Brock Purdy and Trey Lance. The quarterback market won't be as strong this year as not many teams will be looking for a QB1. However, a squad that isn’t far from a playoff stint like the Tennessee Titans could pursue Garoppolo on a team-friendly deal and give Malik Willis the mentorship he needs after being benched for third-string quarterback Josh Dobbs. I expect Garoppolo will get a middle-of-the-road deal similar to Matt Ryan’s deal with the Colts at an average of $30,000,000/year. 

2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Wide Receivers Part 2 and Tight Ends

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2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Wide Receivers Part 2 and Tight Ends

By Doug Harrelson

 

 

So after Part 1 focused on wide receivers that lined up primarily on the outside, for Part 2, we will be looking at players that attack the middle of the field. These are our slot receivers and our tight ends. This class got a nice boost with the rumors of Keenan Allen likely being a cap casualty for the Chargers. This free agent wide receiver class was underwhelming before that news but this alters things significantly. Not only adding a talent like Allen to the free agency pool but also opening up a nice landing spot with a young QB for any free agent or rookie wide receiver. 

 

Keenan Allen

Best Case: New York Giants

In my eyes, Keenan Allen instantly becomes the most coveted prize at wide receiver in the free agent market. A reliable and savvy veteran can instantly give any of these young quarterbacks a reliable target they can depend on during those difficult 3rd and 7 situations that you just gotta have in this league to be successful. Daniel Jones is a guy that could use something like that. Allen would instantly be the best receiver Jones has had to work with in his career up to this point. You give a quarterback with exceptional accuracy in the mid-range a receiver like Allen that is a master of those routes and it is a recipe for some quality offense. It may be tough to get any sort of discount on Allen given his track record of production but I think wherever he lands he will be able to keep that up.

 

Jakobi Meyers

Best Case: Chicago Bears

In the 2019 NFL Draft the Patriots selected N’Keal Harry in the 1st Round. So did many of us in our rookie drafts that year but we try to forget those things. That same season they signed an undrafted free agent by the name of Jakobi Meyers. Who would have thought in 2023 that Meyers would be one of the better prospects available in free agency this offseason and Harry would be just trying to make sure he has a job this coming season? All that being said, Meyers has been a reliable target since he entered the league and should get some attention this offseason. I think he could be an excellent addition to a lot of squads but I am gonna highlight the Bears here. Giving Justin Fields a pass catcher that can he can hit quickly could help out that offensive line quite a bit. I do expect some improvements to that line but being able to do more three-step drops and get the ball out will help a bunch as well. 

 

Parris Campbell

Best Case: Los Angeles Chargers

Another receiver from the 2019 rookie class that did not reach the same level as guys like DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and Deebo Samuel. Parris Campbell has high expectations coming out of Ohio State but has constantly battled injuries and some amount of poor quarterback play. Campbell has shown some flashes as a PPR monster with an explosive upside. With a spot opening up on the west coast, this could be the best chance Campbell has to be a second contract breakout. His size and frame worry me as injuries may always be part of his game but there is some upside here and trading for him will likely cost you nothing. Love picking him up as an add-on to a much bigger trade or seeing if you can get him for a 3rd with rookie hype continuing to build. 

 

Dalton Schultz

Best Case: Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott has shown that he likes targeting Schultz and really any of the tight ends. He also gets the benefit of working on a field with a guy like CeeDee Lamb that attracts so much attention. After getting the franchise tag this past season, I am not sure how likely a deal is to get done. There are plenty of other teams that could happily use his service but I think the best case for him is to stay where he is and he is used. The only issue might be getting the dollars and cents to work out when the Cowboys have already seen flashes from the two young backups and have a need at wide receiver. Given all of that I might be trying to move off of Schultz before free agency or as soon as he lands somewhere. He could have his value take a big hit if he lands in an offense that doesn’t use him as much.

 

Evan Engram

Best Case: Jacksonville Jaguars

While I do not think a deal gets done for Schultz, I do think Engram remains in Jacksonville. He has come out and said he wants to come back. Engram elevated his play to a new level with Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson. Both parties are likely to be motivated to get a deal done given the success of the one-year deal that he signed this past offseason. I actually think he is a hold or maybe even a buy. Engram was giving you a minor Kelce-like effect down the stretch last season with some monster games as well as a high floor. Having weeks where you can get 40-plus out of tight end is such a significant advantage in fantasy football. The problem is that nobody is looking to move off of their Evan Engram shares after years of frustration followed by this massive breakout. 

 

Mike Gesicki

Best Case: Cincinnati Bengals

A tight end in name only, Mike Gesicki is really just a big slot receiver. This one may be tough to make work with all the contracts coming up for the Bengals and the need to address the offensive line. If it were to happen though, the amount of space in the middle of the field that would open up with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (assuming he is not traded) working on the outside could be really scary. Plus a quarterback like Joe Burrow who makes great decisions with the football to put him in a position to succeed. Gesicki could be cheap unless the manager that has him currently has had him for a while. At this point, they may want his value to return to what it was before but I’m not sure if that will even happen with a good landing spot. The talent is there but he has to land somewhere where he can get some use.

2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Wide Receivers Part 1

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2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Wide Receivers Part 1

By Doug Harrelson

We have fully hit mock draft season and everyone is in the process of fine-tuning rookie ranks while rookie hype is building up more and more each day. This is always an excellent time to be buying veterans for a discounted rate. None of the receivers we are about to talk about have expensive price tags but some of them possess some real upside for the 2023 season. The WR market also has some big fish potentially available for trade like DeAndre Hopkins and Brandin Cooks. Today we are gonna focus on the ones that we know will be available as free agents this offseason. For Part 1 we are also going to primarily focus on WRs that line up on the outside then for Part 2 we will look into slot receivers and tight ends. Without further adieu, let's introduce you to the 2023 wide receiver free agent class.

Michael Thomas

Best Case: NYG

The Michael Thomas situation is quite confusing at this point but the Saints restructured his contract in such a way that they can let go of Thomas sooner and save some money on the books. Thomas is on board with this because it will allow him to hit free agency sooner to try to land a lucrative deal this offseason. I like the idea of giving Daniel Jones a target that can help him move the sticks. A big-bodied possession receiver could be just the answer he needs. Daniel Jones’ accuracy on intermediate routes pairs nicely with how well Michael Thomas works in this range. I doubt we ever get anything like his historic 2019 season again out of him but anyone that has rostered him this long would be happy to even get WR3 numbers out of him next season at this point. If you have a new member taking over an orphan team in a league, this is the kind of player they will easily part ways with as a throw-in on a bigger trade. 

DJ Chark

Best Case: DAL

After a nice start to his career, Chark suffered a bad ankle injury right before hitting free agency that made a 1-year “prove-it” deal in Detroit the best option for DJ Chark. Unfortunately for him, I’m not sure he will get a lucrative contract this off-season. He may again be looking for a chance to prove himself worth the bigger multi-year deal. A spot that would make a lot of sense if that is his plan for the offseason is Dallas. Their primary WR is CeeDee Lamb but he does a majority of his work from the slot. Adding a receiver like Chark to the outside adds a deep threat for Dak. A guy he can throw it up to and let him play some bully ball. Plus with Dalton Schultz potentially leaving in free agency, they could use the red zone threat that DJ Chark provides.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Best Case: BUF

If you do not think that JuJu Smith-Schuster can beat out Gabe Davis then this is obviously a much worse landing spot. I think it will spark a hot debate over the offseason and allow you to move off of JuJu Smith-Schuster before the season starts. There is some enticing upside here when he was a number two wide receiver to Antonio Brown he was going in the first round of startup drafts. I am not a huge fan of his talent and his game so I am not as excited about his 2023 prospects. He will certainly find a landing spot that will get him some touches but he did this year as well and was maddeningly inconsistent. It is hard for me to get too excited for a player who is leaving an offseason with the best quarterback on the planet for anywhere else. If I had shares, I would keep my fingers crossed for a good landing spot and then flip for the best I can get. 

Allen Lazard

Best Case: Wherever Rodgers Goes

The Lizard King will be out on the open market this offseason. Lazard has been a trusted weapon of Aaron Rodgers for a few years now, in particular in the red zone. We do not have a great sample size of Lazard without Rodgers so it is hard to say what happens if they are separated this offseason. One interesting possibility is the idea of them playing together for another team like the Jets. I could see him trying to follow Aaron Rodgers to another team but if not, he would be a fine addition to any contender looking for a capable threat in the red zone like Dallas or New England.

Darius Slayton

Best Case: KC

Darius Slayton is so close to being a really nice dynasty asset. His ability to get open down the field is fantastic. The combination of drops and not having a quarterback with an elite deep ball has hurt his production quite a bit though. If he were to get unlocked by a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes though, all bets are off. The Chiefs may get more production out of Slayton than they ever did with JuJu Smith-Schuster. This could be a very cost-effective way for the Chiefs to give Mahomes some deep weapons to work with while spending more of their cap space on the defensive end of the ball that they so desperately need help on. 

Marvin Jones Jr.

Best Case: CHI

The Bears trading for Chase Claypool was designed to give a big body and a deep threat. It has not exactly panned out the way they planned though. Marvin Jones Jr. could provide some cheap help on the outside that could be used both as a deep threat, a red zone threat, and a possession receiver to move the sticks. It isn’t exactly flashy or exciting but I think the Bears are going to want to add multiple bodies to their wide receiver room this offseason. They could easily trade for another wide receiver and draft someone and still have room in the starting rotation for Marvin Jones Jr. I don’t think there is too much upside in acquiring him in dynasty but it is nice to at least consider the possibilities that exist after free agency.

AFC Wildcard Showdowns 2023

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AFC Wildcard Showdowns 2023

By Tim Lazenby

 

Miami Dolphins (7) at Buffalo Bills (2)

 

Last Game

Buffalo won 32-29 (Dec 17, 2022)

All Time Record

Miami Leads 61-52-1, Last met in the playoffs in 1998

 

Miami Dolphins 9-8-0

The Dolphins have had a whirlwind season to say the least.  Under first year coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins have been arguably the top team in the NFL at not knowing what you’re going to get.  Beginning with a three game winning streak, they followed with a three game losing streak.  Then a five game winning streak, followed by a five game losing streak.  Ultimately, they won when they needed to in the last game of the season against the Jets, ugly as it was.  You have to question which Miami team will show up in the Wild Card matchup.

Miami Offense per game

Passing 265.4 (4th), Rushing 99.2 (25th), Points 23.4 (11th), 3rd down % 36.2 (24th)

Miami Defense per game

Passing 234.8 (27th), Rushing 103.0 (4th), Points 23.5 (24th), 3rd down % 41.6 (24th)

 

Miami Top Storyline

As talented as many of the players are in Miami, the top storyline in Miami continues to be what it has been since the draft in 2020.  Tua Tagovailoa has been one of the most controversial draft picks in recent memory and a player who is truly polarizing.  This season has been scary at times when you watch his concussion issues, but when he’s playing, he’s been incredible.  The efficiency and patience has been astounding and arguably the league’s best receiving duo has benefited tremendously.  If Tua isn’t at 100%, it’s going to be a rough ride against one of the league’s best teams.

 

Buffalo Bills 13-3-0

The Buffalo Bills have been amazing this year, just like the past couple years, but the injury of Damar Hamlin has been the entire focus it seems since the canceled game between Buffalo the Bengals.  The Bills could have shut down completely after Hamlin’s tragedy, but this team is using his miraculous recovery as fuel for their fire.  The Bills are dominant on all sides of the ball and even with a missing game, they’ve still claimed the 2nd seed in the AFC.  There aren’t many more teams more terrifying to face in the Wild Card than Buffalo.

 

Buffalo Offense per game

Passing 258.1 (7th), Rushing 139.5 (7th), Points 28.4 (2nd), 3rd down % 50.3 (1st)

Buffalo Defense per game

Passing 214.6 (15th), Rushing 104.6 (5th), Points 17.9 (2nd), 3rd down % 37.5 (7th)

 

Buffalo Top Storyline

We all know the offense is spectacular, but against the high powered Dolphins, the defense will need to come to play,  And while the ground game of the Dolphins has been lackluster at times, one of the league’s best passing teams makes up for that inefficiency.  Every team suffers with injuries, but many have forgotten the Bills are without Von Miller and Micah Hyde.  Their replacements will be at front and center, needing to carry the load against Tua, Tyreek and Waddle.  Aside from that, we all know Damar Hamlin is going to be a big part of this postseason even though he won’t touch the field.  I, for one, am in awe of what he has done.

 

How Miami Will Win

It’s obvious that Miami will make an attempt to expose Buffalo’s secondary.  If the Bills have a weakness, it’s against opposing team’s receivers and luckily enough, Miami has two of the best.  That being said, the lack of a running game, combined with an elite receiving game can make Miami predictable.  Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr will be the key to taking down Buffalo and allowing the Dolphins to win their first playoff game in over twenty years.  If the running backs in Miami don’t bring it, it’s over real quick.

 

How Buffalo Will Win

The Bills are set to be one of the biggest favourites in the opening round.  On paper, they appear almost unbeatable, but all teams have a chance to lose, especially when it’s all on the line.  I know every team has a main option, but the Bills dependency on the Allen-Diggs connection could be their undoing.  I know the Dolphins don’t have a great secondary on paper, but unless others step it up, the double teams on Diggs could prove too much.  Diggs has yet to score against Miami and although the Bills won the last one, Miami took the first.

 

Prediction

Bills win comfortably by more than a touchdown.

 

 

Baltimore Ravens (6) at Cincinnati Bengals (3)

 

Last Game

Cincinnati wins 27-16 (January 8, 2023)

All Time Record

Baltimore leads 28-26, The two have never met in the playoffs

 

Baltimore Ravens 10-7-0

It’s actually quite amazing how Baltimore has won ten games despite the adversity.  In case you didn’t know it, the starting quarterback has missed 5 games, the starting running back has missed 9 games and the starting wide receiver has missed 11 games.  That’s not even including injuries on defense and other players.  You can only imagine the success they’d have if the team was fully healthy.  You play with the hand you’ve been dealt and the Ravens have played quite admirably.  

 

Baltimore Offense per game

Passing 178.8 (28th), Rushing 160.0 (2nd), Points 20.6 (19th), 3rd down % 41.7 (11th)

Baltimore Defense per game

Passing 232.2 (26th), Rushing 92.1 (3rd), Points 18.5 (3rd), 3rd down % 34.9 (4th)

 

Baltimore Top Storyline

Obviously, all eyes will be watching to see if Lamar Jackson will be ready come game time.  Baltimore has played just well enough in his absence, but the team isn’t even remotely close to its capability without him.  The Ravens have made it to the playoffs every year with Lamar other than last season, but I’m sure he’d like to make it past the opener, which he’s only done once.  I’m also watching veterans like Calais Campbell, Justin Houston, Jason Pierre-Paul and what could be their last chances at glory.  Campbell, in particular, has been in the league for 15 seasons.  Will this be his last?

 

Cincinnati Bengals 12-4-0

The Bengals are one of those teams that just ooze swagger.  With Joe Cool leading the way, the young and talented group continues to prove that last season was no fluke.  Featuring one of the best offenses in the league and a much improved defense, the Bengals are out for revenge and trying to kill the narrative that they won’t return to the big game once again.  Only this time, the Bengals won’t be the underdog and everyone is aching for the chance to take the big dog down.

 

Cincinnati Offense per game

Passing 265.0 (5th), Rushing 95.5 (29th), Points 26.1 (7th), 3rd down % 46.1 (3rd)

Cincinnati Defense per game

Passing 229.1 (23rd), Rushing 106.6 (7th), Points 20.1 (5th), 3rd down % 39.6 (20th)

 

Cincinnati Top Storyline

Many will be focusing on Joe Burrow in the playoffs once again, but my storyline in Cincinnati is Ja’Marr Chase.  He’s out to prove that he’s the best receiver in the game and he’ll do all he can to make sure you know it.  As good as he is in the regular season, he shattered the record for yards by a rookie in the playoffs last year.  He was wide open and waiting for that SuperBowl sealing catch, but Burrow just couldn’t get it to him.  I’m sure that Chase has that thought running through his mind as he’s more prepared than ever to taste glory from the Lombardi Trophy.

 

How Baltimore Will Win

Batimore’s path to victory relies on their most underrated strength.  While other teams like San Francisco and Denver get accolades for their defensive prowess, the Ravens are often pushed aside in this regard.  And while Lamar is Lamar and the ground game is inspiring, that defense led by Mike McDonald will be the greatest weapon in overcoming the Bengals.  That being said, the secondary hasn’t been as good as it should be and the Bengals know it.  If they don’t stop the receiving trifecta for the Bengals, I fear that Lamar won’t have enough magic to carry the load on his own.

 

How Cincinnati Will Win

There are two obvious ways that the Bengals will win against the Ravens.  Of course we can talk about JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, but there’s another path they need to take against the Ravens.  At the risk of sounding contrarian, despite the Ravens weakness in the secondary, the Bengals must up their ground game.  Attacking the Ravens greatest strength may seem stupid, but it’s also very unwise to be obvious in your attack.  Joe Mixon has not been the same as he was last year and it’s about time he got back to his dominant ways.  Can Mixon step it up when he’s needed the most?

 

Prediction

Cincinnati wins by two touchdowns.

 

 

Los Angeles Chargers (5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4)

 

Last Game

Jacksonville wins 38-10 (September 25, 2022)

All Time Record

Los Angeles leads 9-4, The two teams have never met in the playoffs

 

Los Angeles Chargers 10-7-0

Massive bias Alert!  If you don’t know already, my favourite team is the Chargers, but I swear I’ll try to be unbiased.  That being said, there’s a lot to love and also a lot to be worried about.  In their first playoff action since 2018, Brandon Staley and Justin Herbert will try their best as rookies in the postseason.  The Chargers were arguably the most injured team in the NFL this year, so they’ve certainly struggled with inconsistency.  But despite their last game, a loss against the lowly Broncos, they were finally looking dominant like many predicted.  Which Chargers team will show up in the Wild Card though?  I hope it’s the team from the four game winning streak.

 

Los Angeles Offense per game

Passing 269.6 (3rd), Rushing 89.6 (30th), Points 23.0 (13th), 3rd down % 43.6 (8th)

Los Angeles per game

Passing 200.4 (7th), Rushing 145.8 (28th), Points 22.6 (21st), 3rd down % 39.2 (17th)

 

Los Angeles Top Storyline

Virtually everyone will say that Justin Herbert is the top storyline heading into the playoffs and I couldn’t agree more.  The Chargers have been very blessed at quarterback over the years.  Players like Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Stan Humphries and Dan Fouts have all had their chance at glory, but fallen short.  The Chargers have only five playoff wins this millenia, and the Bolts faithful are eager to win under Staley’s regime.  Los Angeles, once again, will have a young, elite option at the helm and we’ll see if he can be the first one to win it all.  Go and get it done, Justin!

 

Jacksonville Jaguars 9-8-0

No one can deny the talent on this roster, but many did before the season began.  Sure, the season hasn’t been the most consistent, but the Jaguars have been fantastic as of late.  Since their bye week, the Jags have gone 6-1-0 and have scored 27 points per game.  And in their last three games, they’ve limited opponents to just 7 points per game.  You can’t ignore the fact that the team is inexperienced, but with SuperBowl winning coach Doug Pederson breathing new life into this organization, his experience is all they will need.

 

Jacksonville Offense per game

Passing 232.9 (10th), Rushing 124.5 (14th), Points 23.8 (10th), 3rd down % 41.9 (9th)

Jacksonville Defense per game

Passing 238.5 (28th), Rushing 114.8 (12th), Points 20.6 (12th), 3rd down % 43.2 (29th)

 

Jacksonville Top Storyline

Much like the Chargers, the Jaguars also have a young, elite option at quarterback who will get his first shot in the playoffs.  Under Urban Meyer, many people thought Trevor Lawrence was a terrible player, but turns out, we can ignore that forgotten season as Lawrence has been dynamite.  The scrappy Jags are out to prove their worth and the validity of their free agents’ “questionable” contracts.  In one of the best quarterback battles of the opening round, Trevor Lawrence will be sure to give it his all in his first meaningful game in the NFL.

 

How Los Angeles Will Win

While I’d be foolish to say the team doesn’t begin and end with Justin Herbert, we can’t forget about the impact that Austin Ekeler has on this squad.  If you take a deep look, it’s crazy to see how the wins or losses come depending on the usage and performance of Austin Ekeler.  And his usage in the passing game has made him one of the most valuable, if not the most valuable, running back in the entire NFL this year.  If the Chargers are to win, they’ll need to rely on Ekeler’s pass catching skills.  If he is not utilized in this way to ignite the offense, I wonder if the defense will be enough to hold the line when the high powered Jaguars come knocking on the door.

 

How Jacksonville Will Win

One of the biggest blemishes for the Chargers this year has been their inability to stop running backs and mobile quarterbacks.  And as good as Ekeler is, you can’t overlook the stud running back on Jacksonville’s roster.  I truly believe the Jags’ hopes and dreams will rest on Travis Etienne.  Los Angeles has one of the best offenses and their secondary is no joke, so Etienne will be key in thwarting Los Angeles’ plans on moving forward this postseason.  His combination of blazing speed, shiftiness and pass catching prowess need to be on full display come Saturday to progress past game 1.

 

Prediction

Los Angeles wins by a game winning drive field goal