Offense

Dynasty Stock Watch: Week 4

by

Dynasty Stock Watch: Week 4

By Doug Harrelson

The NFL season is always such a shock after a long offseason of discussion and analysis. If you told me going into the season that the Jaguars and Eagles would be one of the premier matchups this weekend going into the season I would have laughed at you. Yet here we are with three weeks of the NFL season wrapped up and in the books. The honest self reflection of our dynasty teams happens here. Trading has picked up across leagues as teams try to position themselves for a push at the championship or begin looking at trying again next season. Player values begin to shuffle madly as fewer and fewer weeks are left to try and take home the championship. Let’s dive into what these dynasty player values are looking like.

Stock Down

Justin Fields

This Bears offense is truly hard to watch. This is the type of NFL that your grandparents grew up watching before the passing game explosion of the past 10 years. It feels like the entire developmental cycle for Justin Fields could be jeopardized by this coaching staff. At first we thought the Week 1 game in the weather could have been an outlier but this seems to just be the game plan the Bears want to implement. Even in a negative game script against the Packers the Bears continued to just run the football. I assume at some point the Bears will be playing from behind and Fields will have to throw the ball, hopefully then we get some brighter days.

All of them

The running back position is a tragedy right now in fantasy football. Nobody has been consistent, there is a ton of injury risk at the position, NFL teams continue to use committee approaches. If you are a serious contender, hold your RBs and by all means buy them now while they are cheap. Winning championships is the name of the game. Just understand when you make that move that you may never get any return for this investment when you make this trade. If you do not think you can win a championship now I would advocate selling any RB on your roster. I’ll explain more later on. 

Elijah Moore

This one hurts me on a personal level. I am heavily invested in Elijah Moore in every format of fantasy from best ball to redraft to dynasty. PPR, ½ PPR, non-PPR, you name it. Right now Garrett Wilson is the alpha WR on this Jets offense, Corey Davis is still getting targets, Conklin is off to a good start and they have two different pass catching RBs. I feel like a broken record from what I said a couple weeks ago talking about Wilson but the Jets offense now has a reasonable amount of mouths to feed. Elijah Moore may take the hit because of it. 

Noah Fant

Very easily could have said Cole Kmet here but it would be very similar to the paragraph on Fields. Instead I want to talk about former 1st round pick Noah Fant. The once promising prospect now competes for targets with the likes of Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. He may be the head of the committee but I don’t ever want to be using the word “committee” when I am referencing my tight end I drafted in the late 1st round of rookie drafts in 2019. I would not be surprised if he is on your waiver wire by the offseason if things do not improve for Fant.

Stock Up

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts has come out hotter than bacon grease to start the season. The only thing suppressing his value was the potential of the Eagles drafting a QB in 2023. Well if they continue to pile up wins then that will not be part of the conversation and you may have acquired a poor man’s Josh Allen. This Eagles offense has become electric this season but I do want to give a little caution. They have beaten the Lions, Kirk Cousins in primetime, and the Carson Wentz led Commanders. If you roster Hurts you have plenty to be optimistic about, he could be going in the top 5 of Super Flex startups by next spring. 

2023 1sts

I want to turn all my RBs into 2023 picks at this stage unless I am a legitimate contender. As a contender, always be willing to make the move to win a championship. However, the RB market could undergo a massive turnover during this upcoming offseason. Obviously the new blood coming in will have to fit into rankings somewhere but the other thing to consider is that in a deep RB class, a team that already has a talented RB may just draft one to complement the current back. After the NFL draft there will be some good RBs that take massive hits to their value because they are now splitting a backfield. If you are not contending then turning these RBs into capital now can let you buy back into an RB market where many veterans have a suppressed value due to new competition. Either that or you can just draft the backs then. This is a market value move even if you believe many of these guys will actually be fine. 

Chris Olave

13 targets in Week 2 had our curiosity, 9 catches on 13 targets for 147 now has our attention. The top end of this year’s rookie WR class has given us plenty of excitement to start the season. His long term situation at QB may be in flux going forward but that feels like the case for most of these young WRs at this point. A lot of NFL teams cannot say for certain they have their QB in 2023 on their roster. Those teams have their 1sts though so they can go get a QB if they don’t have the answer, the Saints do not. I still love the talent that Olave brings to the table though. 

Jelani Woods

Not somebody you are rolling out to start yet but if you got him with a late dart throw in your rookie draft then you are pleasantly surprised at this stage. With his unbelievable size and athleticism, the red zone should be an area of the field he succeeds at. He had only 16 snaps in the first two games combined and then logged 16 in week 3 and snagged two touchdowns. That should only help his case to get a larger workload on a Colts team desperate for some offensive weapons outside of Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. 

Dynasty Dilemma: Alvin Kamara

by

Dynasty Dilemma: Alvin Kamara

By Doug Harrelson

This offseason has been a weird one for those rostering Alvin Kamara. With the expectation put out there of Kamara potentially being suspended for the first six games of the season, Kamara became much more easily acquired over the offseason for contending teams. That coupled with his age at his position made him a truly affordable superstar. When Kamara’s court date got set back and thus his eventual suspension, Kamara managers rejoiced as their true elite fantasy RB would be in their lineups Week 1 this season. Much to their dismay Kamara would be injured in Week 1, miss Week 2 entirely and be incredibly inefficient in Week 3. Now we must figure out what to do with Alvin Kamara in this Dynasty Dilemma. 

Anyone that was on the opposite end of Alvin Kamara in their fantasy finals in 2020 when he hung 6 scores on Christmas Day against the Vikings can give you reasons to buy. I remember being in three separate finals against Alvin Kamara that season and going 0-3 in those finals. When at his peak Alvin Kamara can be a difference maker in fantasy football that not many others are capable of. Right now could be a good chance to buy into the dip after a slow start to the season. If he goes on a run at the end of the season again, having him on your roster could be the difference between bringing home the championship or checking your bylaws to see what the 2nd place payout is. 

Truly elite level talent is rarely available for the price that isn’t gonna cripple your franchise going forward. The volume was still present in Week 3 despite the lack of production. Kamara in his career has normally been one of the most efficient RBs in football. If I am gonna get 70% of the snaps, 15 carries and 7 targets for Kamara on his first game back from a rib injury, I will be happy with whatever my result is from there.

The biggest fear with holding an elite RB is the fear of being caught holding the bag when their value completely disappears. Kamara has held value for a long time now in terms of RB, almost a unicorn at his position being a RB1 every single season he has been in the league. Eventually he will begin to stop producing the way every running back has in the past. This could be the last time to get any sort of return on investment for Alvin Kamara.
Kamara also still has a court case still in his future that could carry with it a multiple game suspension. If it is in your fantasy playoffs it could cost you big time if he was a player you were depending on. Moving him now for a safer player could be the move so you aren’t desperately trying to piece a lineup together in the fantasy playoffs after being the best team all season long. If you are lucky enough to get through this season with no suspension you will likely have to deal with one early next season which will make him very difficult to sell this offseason.


With the obvious disclaimer that this advice applies to serious contenders only, I am buying Alvin Kamara at his current price tag. No clear timeline exists for his impending suspension which could make many that roster Kamara a bit worried. The upside of having a guy that could drop 40 plus in PPR scoring cannot be overstated. There is a real chance you cannot flip him at some point for the 1st you spent to acquire him but I’m more interested in winning championships then I am in winning trades. I would likely try to buy for two 2nds if possible or a 24 1st if pressed.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: James Robinson

by

Dynasty Dilemma: James Robinson

By Joe Goodwin

 

 

When you are a rookie free agent signed out of Illinois St., most times you are hoping to make a practice roster and learn. And, maybe at some point, you get a chance on special teams to make a mark. Instead, James Robinson instantly became a contributor to a Jaguars offense. In his first season, Robinson led the team in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and was fourth in receptions. James Robinson burst onto the scene as a rookie and looked like the type of player a fantasy manager drafts late or signs as a free agent and wins a league for grabbing such a useful commodity so late in a draft..

Fast forward to 2021…

You are an unsigned free agent running back coming off your first season that saw you go over 1,000 yards and your team drafts a running back in the first round. That same running back that just happened to be in the same backfield as the quarterback your team just drafted first overall. That sent a strong signal to James Robinson that he was not the player the team sees as the long term solution at running back.

Then, Robinson watched that same running back suffer a Lisfranc injury in his second preseason game, and once again become the first (and only legitimate) option at running back for a young team with a new coach.

 

In Robinson’s first two seasons, he has averaged 918 yards rushing, 40 receptions, 283 receiving yards, and 9 touchdowns per season. To start his 2022 season, Robinson has 4 total touchdowns, 266 total yards, and 56 total touches in 3 games. Without question, James Robinson has been the most effective running back on the Jaguars roster for the past 2 years.

James Robinson has prototypical size for a running back at 5’9 and 220 lbs. Although some of his metrics at the combine didn’t jump off the paper (namely a faster 40 time), James showed an incredible vertical jump at 40 inches and impressed many with 24 reps on the bench.

JR had 20 touchdowns through 29 games: Only Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew can say that as Jaguars. JR has 2,500 yards scrimmage yards through his first 30 games. Only Fred Taylor, MJD, and Leonard Fournette had accomplished that in Jacksonville uniforms.

James Robinson has started his Jaguars career among some of the best rb’s in franchise history. Teams don’t just walk away from players that have been that successful unless given a reason…and JR has given no such reason.

 

Coming into this season, it appeared the Jacksonville Jaguars were going to utilize their former first round picks and build their offense around the former Clemson Tigers Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne. Etienne’s ADP for redraft leagues was 36th overall. The fantasy football community was acknowledging ETN would return to his rightful spot as RB 1 of the Jaguars.

James Robison had an ADP of 106th overall. Fantasy managers were drafting running backs like: Kenneth Walker, Devin Singletary, Tony Pollard, and James Cook all ahead of Robinson. It appeared most saw the Jaguars utilizing the 2-time ACC player of the year over an undrafted player out of Illinois St. Not to mention that pesky 40 time that sees ETN run at 4.45 seconds; 2 tenths of a second faster than Robinson.

All signs point to Travis Etienne being the next great running back behind Jaguars greats named Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. In game 1 of this season, the usage rate for the running backs far outweighed ETN over Robinson, In Game 2, a correction was made that leaned heavily in Robinson’s favor. And the last game was more balanced. The future looks to be a timeshare if the current snap counts continue at their current rates.

 

James Robinson has been the unquestioned successful running back compared to ETN.

This season

JR: 51 rushes, 230 yards, 3 touchdowns rushing, 6 receptions, 33 yards, 1 touchdown receiving
ETN: 26 rushes, 112 yards, 0 touchdowns rushing, 8 receptions, 81 yards, 0 touchdown receiving

One of the things I know about the NFL, teams love guys who score touchdowns. If you can’t find the endzone, your time in the NFL will not last long. The Jacksonville Jaguars are a team looking to establish an identity as an offense, and James Robinson continues to demonstrate he is the best option.
And, with Doug Pederson at the helm, the Jags have a head coach that holds no allegiances to the former first round pick in ETN. In fact, the Jaguars organization has a track record of moving on from first round picks (Ramsey and Jack come to mind) when they don’t fit their scheme or underperform.

Some fantasy managers may still cling to “upside” and “expectations” and will stubbornly hold onto players they have drafted high in rookie drafts like Etienne. I, however, try to act quickly when you watch the game and see one player on the field doing damage on the outside, while the other one being tackled behind the line of scrimmage multiple times. That is what I saw this past Sunday as Robinson ripped a 50 yard touchdown run in the win over the Chargers and ETN on the next drive had 2 rushes for negative yards.

In the end, both players have shown glimpses of potentially being RB 2’s for your dynasty football team. However, only one has proven that potential of being realized on a consistent basis.

James Robinson is still only 24 years old with plenty of years remaining in his career to continue producing as a solid top 24 running back. He is the player to grab for your dynasty team and let others wait for unrealized potential in ETN.

 

Start/Sit Week 3

by

Start/Sit Week 3

By Joe Goodwin

Accountability:

Last week, I definitely had some hits and misses.  I used “starter” benchmarks to determine if a player was a hit or miss; and I used PPR scoring.

And, if a player was a late scratch or missed significant time during the game due to injury, I will disregard that prediction.

Quarterback or Tight end: Top 12

Running back: Top 25

Wide Receiver: Top 36

Matt Stafford 🎯

Derek Carr 🎯

Russell Wilson X

Baker Mayfield/Daniel Jones X

Mac Jones 🎯

Jacoby Brissett 🎯

DeAndre Swift 🎯

Ezekiel Elliot X

Miles Sanders X

Kenneth Walker 🎯

Jeff Wilson X

Deebo Samuel 🎯

Jerry Jeudy X

Stefon Diggs/Gabe Davis 🎯

CeeDee Lamb 🎯

DeVonta Smith

Kyle Phillips 🎯

Pat Friermuth 🎯

Dallas Goedert 🎯

Noah Fant 🎯

So, overall I went 13-6 on picks.  Game flow has been hard to predict.  However, I believe I have a few calls that should pan out for you this week.

QB

Starts

Obvious choices: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson

Marcus Mariota: It has come to the point where you have to wonder how this Seattle defense could have gotten this bad?  Seattle is giving up over 400 years to opposing offenses.  And, I believe Mariota will run and throw his way to a solid performance this week.

Justin Fields: I preface this by saying Fields may not get to “Top 12” status this week, but is a solid choice if your QB depth is lacking.  The Houston defense is the worst in the league.  Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney are just too good to not get a break out game and help out Fields. Yes, that offensive line is a colander, but this defense doesn’t appear to be equipped to exploit it.

Tua Tagovailoa: As I thought of my targets to like and dislike this week, I had Tua queued up to be a sit.  My thinking was easy…there is no way he replicates last week and a let down week would occur.  However, the Bills are down 4 starters.  And, if the Bills do what they have done to every other team so far, then the Dolphins will be in a similar situation as last week and have to throw often in the 4th quarter.  Tua might not look great for long stretches, but with Waddle and Hill eating up YAC’s, Tua will benefit from all those extra yards.

Joe Flacco: Quite simply, I write his name because it may be the last week in his career he is fantasy relevant.  And so far, he has been VERY GOOD for the Jets.  Did you realize he leads the league in completed passes?  Me neither.  Let’s exploit one more week before the Jets give the team back to Zack to mess up.

QB

Sits

Injury sits: Justin Herbert, Zack Wilson 

Jameis Winston: Although Carolina lets every team run all over them, the passing yards have been scarce.  With Winston still nursing a multitude of injuries, I’m sure the game plan will be to exploit the run game using Kamara and company.

Joe Burrow: If you didn’t already know, it's really hard to throw a football with any meaningful purpose when you are running for your life.  Burrow has been sacked 13 times in 2 games; which leads the NFL.  The firepower is there, but the time to effectively use it, has not.  I’m in a holding pattern with Burrow until the Bengals tap into that “mojo” they had last year.

Tom Brady: Quite simply, who does he throw to?  Mike Evans: out.  Chris Godwin: out. Julio Jones: questionable.  This team was so desperate, they went out and signed Cole Beasley.  

RB

Starts

Locked and Loaded: Barkley, JT (although close to not being), CMC

Antonio Gibson: With the Eagles all of a sudden becoming a tough team to throw against (ask the Vikings), Gibson should benefit from a game plan this week more tilted to the running game. Plus, Wentz is always more comfortable throwing less than 25 times a game.  The Redskins will feed Gibson as much as he can handle.

James Robinson: I am now officially on the James Robinson train.  I thought for sure ETN would take this job and never look back.  Then, after seeing the first two games, I remembered that Doug Pederson is at the helm.  And from his days leading the Eagles, I forgot what a short fuse he has with young players and mistakes.  ETN has had a bunch of missed opportunities this year and Pederson will lean heavily on Robinson to control the clock against a Chargers team potentially missing a lot of studs on offense.

RB

Sits

Injury: Josh Jacobs, James Connor (monitor closely)

Joe MIxon: It pains me to write that, but I am not seeing that offensive line opening holes for him to run through.  Mixon is currently 2nd in the league in running attempts, 12th in yards, and 49th in yards per attempt.  The lack of efficiency is reason enough to stay away until the offensive line/efficiency improves.

Derrick Henry: I saw a stat that when Henry scores less than 10 fantasy points in a game, the following week’s game he goes over 20.  Well, last week was the week he was supposed to go over 20 and he didn’t.  His lack of efficiency with his reps and the offense lacking any spark, has Henry on this list.  He may be a buy low candidate after this week, but if you have depth at the position, you may want to explore those options.  Henry looks like he may not have the spark and drive he had last year.

WR

Starts

Start and forget: Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek HIll, Jaylen Waddle, Stefon Diggs

Amon-Ra St. Brown: Watching AJ Brown and the Eagles shred that shell defense the Vikings are currently using, makes me believe Detroit will use St. Brown like AJ.  This is not just an indictment on the Viking, Amon-Ra is THAT good.  He came into the week 5th in receptions and 12th in yards.  Goff has found his go-to guy.

Justin Jefferson: Yes, last week “Big Play” Slay got a lot of publicity for shutting down JJ on Monday Night Football.  One, JJ will not get played like that twice.  Second, the Lions do not have Slay anymore (I'm sure they wish they did).  Finally, the Vikings really have not found another receiving threat to eat into JJ’s target share.  I am BIG on JJ this week!

Courtland Sutton: This is totally predicated on Jeudy and Hamler not playing.  IF they are both out, Wilson will target Sutton a bunch.  Utilize the one week payday and start Sutton everywhere.

AJ Brown: This Eagles offense has looked very good and Jalen Hurts seems to find AJ on every play.  Smith and Goedert are sharing targets, but AJ seems to be getting as much as he can handle.  I would continue to ride this hot streak.

WR

Sits

Injury/Suspension related: Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Hunter Renfrow, Kyle Phillips

Gabe Davis: At this point, the Bills have little to prove.  Stefon Diggs has looked unstoppable in the first 2 weeks; and Josh Allen is a modern day Superman.  With Davis still feeling the lingering effects of an ankle injury, I’m prone to avoid Davis this week and wait one more week and reassess.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: I had JuJu as a start last week, and now he is a sit.  Why the flip flop?  Simply put, Mahomes is a magician and doesn’t care which trick he performs and Andy Reid doesn’t care about stats at all.  The Chiefs are good.  However, the receiving corps will be a week to week guess.  I prefer more predictable players at this point.  

TE

Starts

Ready to go: Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews

OJ Howard: As of this writing, OJ may be the only tight end of substance on the Texans roster.  And with a lacking receiving unit to begin with, OJ may be in line for more targets and red zone looks for a depleted Houston offense.

Gerald Everett: Did you know Gerald Everett leads the Chargers in receiving yards?  And tied for targets?  With the possibility of Herbert and Allen not playing, and check down tight end will be exactly what any offensive coordinator could wish for.  Assuming the Chargers are forced to use Chase Daniel, I think Everett will get a lot of work in the flat and 5 yard in-routes to help Daniel to get the ball out quick and keep the ball moving.

TE

Sits

Injury Question Marks:  Dalton Schutlz, Dawson Knox

Mike Geisicki: With all the touchdowns Tua is throwing and the yards gained, it's a wonder how Geisicki hasn’t cashed in.  With only 5 targets after the first 2 games, he is obviously now just a 3rd or worse read for Tua.  Waddle and Hill are obviously the focal points of the offense. 

George Kittle: Finally! Another elite tight end is back.  However, Kittle has to battle the 4th best pass defense in his first game out.  I think Jimmy G at the helm is good for receivers on the 49ers,  I would just wait to one more week to find out exactly how that shakes out.

 

Dynasty League’s Closing Windows

by

Dynasty League's Closing Windows

By Joel Wirth

Dynasty players are all about the long view, but player values are fluctuating on a week-to-week basis. Two weeks ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown was a divisive back-end WR2 (although, I seem to recall someone extolling his virtues a while back on this very site https://dynastyprosfootball.com/objects-in-the-rear-view-mirroramon-ra-st-brown/), now he’s trading for no less than a 2023 1st plus a productive player. Paying market rate for a player today can be a clear win next week if that player’s value takes off in-between. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few players who you may want to look into trading for now before their value goes up and their trade window closes.

The Youngsters

Treylon Burks/Chris Olave

Dynasty veterans know the rule of thumb with rookie receivers is let them struggle early, then trade for them right before they learn the speed of the game, get in sync with their QB, and they start producing fantasy points. Garrett Wilson has shown us that sometimes happens sooner than we expect, even if they’re not Ja’Marr Chase-level talents. Burks and Olave could be the next two in line for feature roles. Tennessee looks like a flat out bad team and Derrick Henry looking like he’s running through molasses should lead to more passing volume and more garbage time than we’re used to with this team. Olave’s advanced metrics show a star in the making. Jameis Winston’s hideous early season inefficiency is the only thing holding him back right now. Neither of these two are exactly cheap, they still have most of their rookie draft shine, but like Wilson, they’re one elite game away from being highly coveted assets.

CeeDee Lamb/Kyle Pitts

Going into the season, Lamb and Pitts were two of the most valuable dynasty properties you could have; young, supremely talented, in great situations, and in Pitts’ case, playing an exceptionally scarce position. Real or perceived, their early season struggles have made them available for costs that would have been unthinkable on Labor Day. In one of my leagues, Pitts was traded for Darren Waller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. That offer would have been laughed at and insta-rejected not that long ago. At this point, it really can’t hurt to ask and see if they’re available at all. These two are Burks & Olave on steroids. One good game and they go back to being nigh-untouchable.

Travis Etienne

During best ball draft season, Etienne was the RB hotness. Two weeks into the season, James Robinson is unexpectedly back and Etienne is being benched in fantasy. That sound you hear is BUY LOW sirens going off. Much like Cam Akers, Robinson coming back from an Achilles injury so soon is a great story, but he’s been very inefficient, averaging less than 4 YPC. His value is being entirely propped up by touchdowns and Etienne’s high profile sure-touchdown drop on 4th down in the opener. Once those normalize, Etienne will go back to being the RB to own in Jacksonville, which will be a good thing, because…

Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville is like Old Faithful right now. You can feel the rumbling under your feet, you know the explosion is coming, you just don’t know when. Once the geyser blows, TLaw will jump up to and potentially surpass Joe Burrow status in superflex. He’s still the elite, generational prospect we saw in college and expected on Draft Day ‘21. Urban Meyer wrecked his rookie season, but even through that haze you can still see the Andrew Luck upside. If there are still doubters, relieve them of their burden.

Elijah Moore

Yes, Garrett Wilson is this week’s WR hotness, but don’t forget about Moore. He’s no less talented because he has another talented teammate in the WR room. Zach Wilson is due back imminently and we know he has more time together with Moore than Wilson. Plus, if (Zach) Wilson can live up to his draft pedigree, there will be plenty of room at the table in this offense for both to eat.

The Seasoned Vets

De’Andre Hopkins

This is simple math. After Week 3, he’ll be half way through his suspension and his managers will take an “I’ve held this long, why should I sell now” attitude, and deservedly so. If the DHop manager in your league is off to a slow start, now is the perfect time to go after him.

Travis Kelce

A 5/50/0 line in a prime time game is as bad as Kelce’s ever going to look, and for a Tight End, it’s still really not bad at all. You probably have until exactly 1:00 PM EDT Sunday to get him at the most modest of discounts. Be sure to mention how positively elderly Kelce is looking in your proposal.

Chris Godwin

The hamstring injury is legitimately the best thing that could have happened to him, forcing the Bucs to give his reconstructed knee additional time to heal. Like DHop, if his manager is off to a slow start and you can afford the downtime, see what it would take to get Godwin onto your roster.

D.J. Moore

He’s the same guy he’s always been. Carolina’s offense has unsurprisingly struggled coming together early, despite the expectations of default QB improvement. If Moore is the victim of over-inflated pre-season expectations, get him now before the Panthers pull it together.

Diontae Johnson

Speaking of guys who are what they’ve always been… You’ll likely have to wait until next week to make this deal go down since he played Thursday, but he has double digit targets in every game so far. The Steelers now have a “mini-bye” to self-scout and figure out how to start scoring touchdowns. Coming back against the Jets won’t hurt that effort, but it may tank your chances of trading for Diontae at value once he goes off.

Donovan Peoples-Jones

We end with a low cost/no cost long term stash. The window isn’t closing on this one so much as slowly shimmying down the sill. DPJ’s deep threat talents are a terrible match for Jacoby Brissett’s game-manager arm. Once Deshaun Watson’s suspension is over, look for him to get DPJ involved in the offense in ways he currently cannot be.

Dynasty Dilemma: Garrett Wilson

by

Dynasty Dilemma: Garrett Wilson

By Doug Harrelson

 

This past WR draft class has sparked quite a bit of controversy this offseason. If you asked ten different dynasty analysts who their favorite rookie WR was, you could have received four or more different answers. Even the tier lines weren’t always drawn the same with prospects like Skyy Moore and Chris Olave falling into different tiers for different drafters. This year’s class was the ultimate “go get your guy” draft class. Garrett Wilson may not have been the most frequent answer for the top WR but he was in most top 3 lists. In my own personal rankings Wilson was the top WR pre draft and remained there for me post draft. I’ll admit that I was lower on Drake London than the consensus and feel I may have been wrong in my evaluation of him. Nevertheless, Garrett Wilson was going to be a prospect to watch this season, that much is for sure.

 

While in college, Garrett Wilson had to compete for targets in an offense loaded in NFL talent at the WR position. A position group so talented that Jameson Williams had to go to Alabama just to get some playing time. Garrett Wilson jumps off the tape with some of his incredible concentration catches. Beyond just his ability to make some acrobatic catches, Wilson’s route running was NFL ready before he ever heard his name called at NFL Draft. Every skill set you need to be a successful NFL WR, Garrett Wilson has it. NFL scouts felt the same about his tape as dynasty managers did and Garrett Wilson was drafted 10th overall to the Jets, a team hoping to be ascending with all of their other young talent on the roster.

We got to see that translate to the next level in Week 2 as Garrett Wilson was a featured piece to the Jets offense as they pulled out a miraculous win over the Cleveland Browns. Garrett Wilson made big plays in critical moments of the game including the game winning touchdown late in the 4th quarter. The Jets offensive coaches had mentioned after Week 1 that they wanted to get Wilson more involved in the offense. After the result that the Jets got, I imagine they will be looking to implement that gameplan again going forward. Wilson showed off everything we saw on tape from his route running, to his ability to understand coverage and even making contested catches despite the smaller frame.

 

This Jets offense has invested quite a bit of money and draft capital in trying to build around Zach Wilson. All these pieces come at a cost of target share for any one of them. Garrett Wilson may always have a ceiling to his volume in an offense with this many moving pieces. Elijah Moore being another young WR that had a strong finish to last season is likely chief among them. If it were only Moore that would be one thing but the Jets also have veteran WR Corey Davis, two veteran TEs in Uzomah and Conklin and two RBs that are both capable of catching the ball out of the backfield. While no one player in that group crushes in target share, the sum of their targets will limit how much of the passing game work will go to Garrett Wilson.

The QB situation in New York is also riddled with a bit of uncertainty and doubt in both the short term and the long term. In the short term the Jets have former Super Bowl QB Joe Flacco until Zach Wilson recovers fully from an injury suffered in the preseason. While Joe Flacco has shown himself to be serviceable, nobody expects him to throw for 400 plus yards and 4 TDs. This will also limit the ceiling in the present. When Zach Wilson returns, he will have to show that he has made a step up from previous seasons. If Zach Wilson does not then Garrett Wilson is likely to have another young QB next season or a journeyman veteran to bridge the gap. Granted, if Zach Wilson makes a leap in his second year then all needles point up for all players on the Jets’ offense, but the situation is at the present time still uncertain.

We have seen one week wonders in the past, immediately flipping a player drafted in the 1st round one year for two 1st rounders in the following seasons is a fantastic return on your initial investment and immediately liquidates a profitable asset for your dynasty team. Even in the case that Wilson continues to succeed, if those picks are traded for other players on the rise or used to pick players that ascend, you can still come out ahead.

 

It may be very tough to acquire Garrett Wilson at this point but I am buying or holding at this point. It is like gonna cost you either two 1sts or likely a decent player and a 1st. If I felt myself needing to rebuild, I would maybe use this as an opportunity to move an asset like CMC or Mike Evans straight up. The window to buy could completely close if he has one more big game so be aggressive if you do not have many shares of Garrett Wilson in your dynasty portfolio so if you want to join the ride you better jump on now.