Dynasty

Dynasty Dilemma: Kyren Williams

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Dynasty Dilemma: Kyren Williams

One of the biggest surprises of the season so far is the Los Angeles Rams. They went into Lumen Field in Seattle and punched the Seahawks in the mouth. They won in every category, including time of possession, total yards, first downs, and third-down efficiency. They were a well-oiled machine, and the running back room was a big reason why. With only 92 yards on the ground, Cam Akers, Kyren Williams, and the offensive line set the tone and let the young wide receivers be comfortable. In week two, they did not win the game but surprised many people by hanging with one of the Super Bowl favorites, the San Francisco 49ers. 

Every team in the NFL wants to have a balanced attack between the passing game and the rushing game. In week one, the Rams did just that. With 38 passing and 37 rushing attempts (not counting Matthew Stafford's rushes, which would make it 40), the Rams offensive scheme could do anything it wanted, and Seattle could not adjust to stop it. Week 2 was a little more pass-happy, but Williams could have been more productive. Matthew Stafford threw the ball 55 times with just 22 rushing attempts. Among those 22 rushing attempts, the only running back to have a carry was Kyren with 14. Kyren Williams has had the most significant impact based on his production. He also may be the guy to get on the waiver wire or trades in the coming weeks. Here is why:


Production -  

Cam Akers had more rushing attempts in week one with 22, but Kyren Williams was the more productive back. 15 carries for 52 yards and two touchdowns were surprising for many Cam Akers owners in redraft formats. It raised some eyebrows to the dynasty owners who have held Williams in deep bench or taxi formats. Williams's 3.5 yards per attempt was over double Akers's production (1.3 yards per attempt). This number may seem low, but three rushing attempts at 3.5 yards per attempt is a first down. 

In week two, Kyren Williams had all the rushing attempts for the running back room. He ended the game with 14 carries for 52 yards and one touchdown. Williams also had a great game receiving-wise, with six receptions for 48 yards and one touchdown. With a 3.7 yards per attempt in week two against what some people call the most formidable defense he will face this year. Performing this well against a tough defense is what the owners of Kyren Williams wanted to see. 

Snap Percentage - 

Kyren Williams also out-snapped Cam Akers by a significant margin. The official snap counts for the running backs were 53 snaps(65.43%) for Kyren Williams, 28 snaps(34.57%) for Cam Akers, and 0 for Ronnie Rivers. The playing time breakdown was significant in week one because every fantasy manager believed in the offseason that Akers was going to be the RB1 on this team, so to be on the field so for him to be on the field far less was a surprise. 

In week two, Cam Akers was a healthy scratch. The other active running backs for the game were Royce Freeman, who only played special teams, and Ronnie Rivers, who played only a handful of snaps and caught one pass for four yards. Williams has been the most efficient back and is the running back in the Rams backfield. In the first two games of the season, Kyren Williams is up to 129 snaps, 80.12% of all offensive plays. Snap percentage is something to keep an eye on in my eyes. Especially in the coming weeks if Akers stays inactive and McVay keeps up this massive percentage with the backups. With waiver pickups about to be in full swing and two weeks' worth of stats, Williams and a slew of his teammates were the top adds of the week for managers. What should we expect? Should we temper expectations?

 

Fools Gold - 

Some things are set in stone for the first few weeks of the NFL season, like a Minnesota Vikings disappointment or a division rival game having an unexpected outcome, like the Cleveland Browns upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals. Week one of the NFL season is also one that usually has the most surprises. The Los Angeles Rams, as a whole, were one of the biggest. That includes Kyren Williams's snap count and production on the field while barely sniffing the field last year. However, I like his yards per attempt at 3.5 yards and 3.7 in week two. Will this continue, or will Sean McVay get in his head and ruin another productive running back?

After two weeks of performance and production, all signs point upward for Kyren Williams. His stats for fantasy are great, and as I have and will state even more soon, I am worried about his coach getting in his way. He also has not broken a tackle in the first two weeks, so as defenses adjust and put more defenders into the "box" or by the line of scrimmage, can Williams keep up this productivity? 

 

 

In my Dynasty Dilemma in May about Cam Akers, I barely brought up Kyren Williams because I thought he was the running back after camp to be cut. That was a mistake. I did not believe Williams had a significant role on the team then. I put too much stock on the rookie Zach Evans and Ronnie Rivers. His role, although substantial, has yet to be clearly defined. In what I will call classic Sean McVay fashion, he doesn't know what to do with his running back room. 

With the inconsistencies from last year with Akers, injuries to players, and not getting a role in the backfield after returning until late in the year, Williams kept his head down and worked on becoming the lead back in LA. The lead-back role in Los Angeles has been by committee for the past two years. That has yet to be the case through the first two weeks of the 2023 season. Kyren Williams is the lead back now, and it may take an injury or surprising play by one of the rookies to change that.

Whether you are going for the gold this year in Dynasty or trying to rebuild, Kyren Williams is an asset. Some deeper leagues in Dynasty need more luxury to pick up WIlliams through the wavier wire. It may be time to strike while the iron is hot and see if the owner is willing to part ways with him. Use the Dynasty Pros Trade Calculator to see what is deemed a fair trade. If you learn anything from playing fantasy football in this day and age, it's that you know the running back position takes a lot of work to navigate. So try to get yourself as many as you can for as cheap as possible to have options. 

In redraft, many guys were picking up the wide receivers for the LA Rams in Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. These two have had significant games to start the year. While the receivers are always good options, getting a potential running back that could help you in a bye week or solidifying your RB2 role is beneficial. Last week, Kyren Williams was a cheap get on the waiver wire. After week two, we may see significant amounts of blind bids or free agent dollars on him. 

I will try to acquire Williams if you need help at the running back position. If you have Kyren Williams, I would hold. He can be an asset to your team for one of the running back slots, and his price tag might increase shortly. Be patient; we still have 12 to 13 weeks until the fantasy playoffs. If he does become the real deal and a must-start, someone might cave and give you an offer you can't refuse. Hold for a few more weeks and sell when his price is at its highest. We have seen crazier things happen, and in desperate times, people sell top assets to improve their team to make a run. 

He isn't a Todd Gurley type back. He is a complementary back who will see RB1 touches for this year. Sooner than later, he is going to be an afterthought to McVay. Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers got the same hype during their drafts, and the same thing is happening to Williams. Henderson was cut, and Akers is becoming an afterthought, being a healthy scratch and, if rumors are true, on the trade block. Williams will be getting the hype until one of the other rookies comes in and impresses. He then may fall victim to the Sean McVay trap. Kyren Williams is a great play this year, but you can never know the thought process or trust McVay until proven otherwise. Although the future might not be as clear as we would want, the opportunity to shine is there for Kyren Williams.

 

Devy Digest: Monday Musings Week 3

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Devy Digest: Monday Musings Week 3

 

Devy Risers

Kansas RB- Devin Neal has been someone we've been high on all offseason and he continues to be efficient with his touches and climbs up the ranks. He single-handedly carried Kansas to a win over Nevada with 89 yards on the ground, 3 touchdowns and a 59 yard reception.

LSU WR- Malik Nabers was never a faller for us, but is someone we feel deserves to be mentioned. He absolutely took over in the game. He put up a stat line of 13-239-2.

South Carolina WR- Xavier Legette continues to shine and against a tough Georgia team where Juice Wells had to exit the game after the first drive ended up with 7-71. Georgia was shading coverage towards his side and he still played pretty well.

Devy Quandaries

Clemson QB- Cade Klubnik has looked okay, but expectations were a lot higher coming into the season, especially with the weapons at wide receivers and a run game to take stress off of him. Clemson heads into conference play now, but if you have him, he is someone that is a little worrisome. He's limited his turnover worthy plays, but he doesn't look comfortable.

Devy Fallers

Alabama WR- Malik Benson was someone who went early in startups and supplementals and he has not made any impact. Coming into the season, our worries were the receiving room and seniority matters for this program. His only chance of meaningful snaps would be the slot position and he wasn't able to secure the position. He's playing limited snaps and a Quarterback position in flux.

C2C Names to Watch

Boston College QB- Thomas Castellanos is about 5% rostered across all C2C leagues and he has a firm hold of the Quarterback position. He has gotten more comfortable with each passing game and is a threat to run the ball as he has gained more than 65 yards in each game this year.

UMASS RB- Kay'ron Lynch-Adams is about 16% rostered and has been efficient with his touches. Taking a look at their schedule, he could easily be a flex option in 4 to 5 games. He put together his best game this past weekend against Eastern Michigan with 26 carries 129 yards and a touchdown. He doesn't really have a receiving profile, so the majority of his work will come on the ground.

Temple RB- Kyle Monangai is someone worth watching. Coming into the season Samuel Brown was expected to lead the backfield, but due to injuries it has opened the door for Monangai, who has looked very efficient with his touches. With 3 touchdowns and over 140 yards on the ground this past weekend versus Virginia Tech, he is a name to watch as we see how this backfield shapes out when Brown does return.

NC State WR- Kevin Concepcion is about 10% rostered across all C2C leagues, and is someone that we've been high on since before fall camp opened up. He hauled in 7 catches for 62 yards and continues to lead the team in receptions as a true Freshman. We put you on to him before the season started and it's all coming together.

Auburn TE- Rivaldo Fairweather once again shows up on our list as he's put back to back games where for the position, is worth taking note. His athleticism is proving he belongs at this level.

Musings wrap up

UCLA QB- Dante Moore looked great as they wrapped up non-conference play and now UCLA has a tough stretch ahead of them and first up is at Utah next week. We'll be looking forward to seeing how he plays. Arizona State QB- Jaden Rashada was unable to play due to an injury and Arizona State got shut out in a loss to Fresno State at home. We'll have to see if he is healthy enough to play next week. Tulane QB- Michael Pratt missed his second consecutive game with an injury. Tulane was able to pull off a win without him, but they'll need him back if they want to win out. Arkansas RB- Raheim Sanders missed his second consecutive game, which is worrisome. We'll have to see if he is able to practice next week. Ole Miss RB- Quinshon Judkins was listed as doubtful but still gave it a go. He doesn't look as explosive as last year and is a situation worth monitoring. Notre Dame RB- Audric Estime continues to look great, they have a tough matchup next week against Ohio State. South Carolina WR- Juice Wells, looked great in the first series against Georgia, but was not able to return due to a foot injury. We'll have to monitor that situation going forward. Ole Miss WR- Tre Harris was not available this past weekend due to an injury. Michigan WR- Roman WIlson scored another touchdown. For a system that won't receive the volume we like, Wilson is making the most of his opportunities. Colorado WR/CB- Travis Hunter will be out a few weeks.

Devy Digest: Week 3 Preview

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Devy Digest: Week 3 Preview

 

Devy Games to Watch

Saturday, September 16
South Carolina at (1)Georgia
For Georgia, QB- Carson Beck has 2 easy games under his belt to prepare for this and he should be aided by the run game that will be tandem of RB- Roderick Robinson II and RB- Kendall Milton. RB- Andrew Paul is working his way back from injury and might get some more playing time. WR- Ladd McConkey has been out due to injury and in his place, WR- Mekhi Mews has stepped up. WR- Dominic Lovett will operate out of the slot and look to get more involved, but it will be TE- Brock Bowers and TE- Oscar Delp who will be the safety valves for QB- Carson Beck. For South Carolina, QB- Spencer Rattler has played exceptionally well and has leaned on WR- Xavier Legette, who has filled in for the injured WR- Juice Wells. The running game hasn't fared too well thus far, and will be led by RB- DaKereon Joyner, but overall as a team they have averaged less than 2 yards per carry. QB- Spencer Rattler will be asked to win this game.

Western Kentucky at (6)Ohio State
For Ohio State, QB- Kyle McCord got a lot more comfortable in his second start last week and will look to build upon that and spread the ball around to WR- Marvin Harrison Jr, and WR- Emeka Egbuka. The running back room has been muddled during the first couple of weeks as RB- TreVeyon Henderson leads the team in carries at 17 with RB- Chip Trayanum has 14 and RB- Miyan Williams has 13. For Western Kentucky, WR- Malachi Corley sat out of last weeks game as a precaution and should be good to go. In the offseason, he circled this game, as he knew all eyes would be on this game and he wanted to make the case for being the best wide receiver in the country. QB- Austin Reed will be happy to see his top target earner back on the field as they try to keep this game close early on.

(11) Tennessee at Florida
For Florida, they will lean on the run game led by RB- Trevor Etienne and RB- Montrell Johnson. WR- Ricky Pearsall is the favorite target for QB- Graham Mertz, but we'll be looking for the usage of true Freshman WR- Eugene Wilson, who is simply electric when he has the football. For Tennessee, the offense has looked out of sync. In the past, QB- Joe Milton was someone who was hesitant and was afraid to take shots. We thought that went away in this Quarterback friendly system with Tennessee, but something has looked off. Perhaps it's due to the wide receiver room, as nobody has stepped up yet. WR- Squirrel White was supposed to be the deep threat, Jalin Hyatt role...but we haven't really seen that. The offense as a whole has been using short passes rather than the long shots that we are accustomed to. Tennessee has leaned on the run game with RB- Jaylen Wright and RB- Jabari Small. This might end up being a game that is dependent on the running backs.

Florida Atlantic at Clemson
For Clemson, QB- Cade Klubnik will look to take command of the offense and continue to find WR- Antonio Williams and WR- Beaux Collins and try to get WR- Adam Randall involved. The run game will be led by RB- Will Shipley and RB- Phil Mafah and this will be their final tune up before conference play hits. For Florida Atlantic, QB- Casey Thompson will need to have a clean game to keep them close and he'll look for WR- LaJohntay Wester who has been the go to guy for the team. RB Larry McCammon leads the backfield and is a danger in the receiving game as well.

C2C Games to Watch

Louisville at Indiana
For Indiana, it's officially QB- Tayven Jackson time, as he has been named the starter. He'll have a stiff test as they'll have to keep up with Louisville's high powered offense. The run game for Indiana has kept them in games and they'll lean on RB- Jaylin Lucas and RB- Josh Henderson. For Louisville, QB- Jack Plummer will look to distribute the ball to his explosive wide receivers in WR- Jamari Thrash, WR- Kevin Coleman, and WR- Jimmy Calloway. WR- Chris Bell is someone we'd like to see get more involved, but he's been limited due to the new offense in place.

San Jose State at Toledo
For Toledo, QB- Dequan Finn has continued to look very good and has been a consistent CFF starter. The top two wide receivers are WR- Junior Vandeross III and Jerjuan Newton and RB-Jacquez Stuart leads the way on the ground. For San Jose State, they make their first trip east and are led by QB- Chevan Cordeiro, who has leaned on WR- Nick Nash and WR- Charles Ross as WR-Justin Lockhart works his way back from an injury during fall camp. The run game has received a boost from Utah Tech transfer RB- Quali Conley, who has looked very efficient with his touches and his running mate RB- Kairee Robinson leads the team in rushing touchdowns. This should be a pretty good C2C and CFF matchup.

Syracuse at Purdue
For Purdue, QB- Hudson Card has looked pretty good so far and not much has changed with the offense.  Leading the pass catchers are TE- Max Klare, WR-Deion Burks, WR- Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen, and WR- TJ Sheffield. RB- Devin Mockobee leads the way on the ground with volume. For Syracuse, TE- Oronde Gadsden II will miss some time and filling the void will be WR- Umari Hatcher, WR- Isaiah Jones, and WR- Donovan Brown. QB- Garrett Shrader has been in command with this offense, but the star of the team is RB- LeQuint Allen. Allen has been productive thus far, and we look for his usage to rise. Last week, the game got out of hand early and Allen wasn't used much. They used RB- Ike Daniels and RB- Juwaun Price. This game should be much better competition wise, so how the backs are used will be interesting. We were banking on the volume for Allen, and Allen has looked like the most explosive of the three backs, but we'll have to see how it plays out.

Pittsburgh at West Virginia
For West Virginia, RB- CJ Donaldson Jr has been the top asset and he hasn't looked as efficient as we saw last year in his limited touches, but he is by far the lead back and will continue to receive the volume we like. QB- Garrett Greene bounced back last week and will look to build on that performance and will look to WR- Hudson Clement, who exploded out of the gates last week with a stat line of 5-177-3 in his debut against Duquesne. For Pitt, they look to rebound off a tough loss to Cincinnati. QB- Phil Jurkovec has not looked good at all and will need to find WR- Konata Mumpfield and TE- Gavin Bartholomew. The run game has been a three-headed split consisting of RB- Daniel Carter, RB- C'Bo Flemsister and RB- Rodney Hammond.

Hawaii at (13) Oregon
For Oregon, it'll be another high octane performance with QB- Bo Nix and his receiving group, which is led by WR- Troy Franklin, WR- Gary Bryant Jr, WR- Tez Johnson. The ground attack will feature RB- Bucky Irving, RB- Noah Whittington, RB- Jordan James, RB- Dante Dowdell, and RB- Jayden Limar. WR Troy Franklin has had a great start to the season, and we'll see what kind of numbers he puts up and if RB- Bucky Irving has another 100 yard running game. For Hawaii, they travel to the mainland and will need to bring their weapons with them. QB- Brayden Schager continues to see the volume and, while he makes mistakes and turns the ball over, he also makes plays when the team needs him to. Leading the wide receivers are WR- Pofele Ashlock, a Devy Digest favorite of ours, and WR- Steven McBride. The targets have funneled to them, and they have produced for CFF purposes. Hawaii has found a run game of some sort with RB- Jordan Johnson, who has looked more efficient than the incumbent starter RB- Tylan Hines. If Hawaii can put up points early, this could be a fun game to watch.

Colorado State at (18)Colorado
For Colorado, we get to see another game and how this offense will be. QB- Shedeur Sanders has looked good against the defenses that he's faced. He has distributed the ball well to the trio of wide receivers in WR- Travis Hunter, WR- Joe Horn Jr and WR- Xavier Weaver. The run game has not fared that well in the first couple of games, and that will be something to look for. For Colorado State, it seems as if QB- Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi will get the start and he'll need to lean on WR- Tory Horton and WR- Justus Ross-Simmons. Colorado State hasn't been able to run the ball either, so this game will be settled through the air.

Devy Digest: Barion Brown

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Barion-Brown-Return-090623

 

 

Kentucky Wildcats

Wide Receiver
Barion Brown
6'1" 166lbs
Age: 19
Draft Eligible: 2025
Devy Digest WR Rank: 10

 

Devy Digest: Barion Brown

 

 

Who is Barion Brown?

Brown was a high 4* in the composites and attended Pearl-Cohn High in Tennessee, where he did a little of everything on the Football field, including playing quarterback, running back, wide receiver and defensive back. Off the football field, Brown was a decorated track athlete as he won back-to-back State Championships in the 100 and 200 meter dash. That game changing, elite speed translated onto the football field as he outran defenders game after game. As a true Freshman, Brown started 7 games and was an impact player every time he touched the ball. Brown finished his Freshman season with 50 catches and became one of the most dangerous return men in college football.

Advance Metrics: Courtesy of Campus 2 Cant

As you can see, Brown had a great Freshman season. The start to the current season has been less than ideal, but we need to see how this offense shapes up.

2023 Outlook

Liam Coen returns as the offensive coordinator and Devin Leary is the new Quarterback, who should distribute the ball better than Will Levis did last season. So far it's been a slow start to the season, but Brown has already shown his return prowess by returning a kickoff 99 yards to the house in the season opener against Ball State. Brown and fellow true Sophomore Dane Key are one of the more potent duos in all of college football. Brown should be used in all phases including jet sweeps, bubble screens, and go routes in order to utilize his skill set and get him in open space.

Strengths

Brown has speed in spades and he knows how to use it. Coen should find ways to get him the ball in open space and let him work. Brown is creative when he has the ball in his hands and you hold your breath every time he touches it as he can take it the distance every time. Brown tracks the ball well, which is why he is such a good returner, and why I'd like to see more go and post routes from him.  I'd also like to see him expand the route tree and give him more variation to win. We'd like to see Kentucky utilize Brown's mix of short, shifty speed with long speed. Brown has galloping strides that can outrun most defenses. It's encouraging that the new offensive coordinator is trying to find ways to get him the ball.

Improvements/Concerns

There is a lot of mystery in regards to Brown, either due to his skill set or the offense that is being run at Kentucky. As a true Freshman, he wasn't asked to run many different routes and was very limited in that offense, running more short to intermediate routes. Could it be he isn't as refined as a route runner or was it due to a combination of Quarterback play from last year and the former play caller? So far in the current season, we still haven't seen Brown used in the explosive ways we would like to see. Kentucky has run a pretty balanced offense so far and Leary looks competent at the helm, as he hasn't forced anything and just takes what the defense is giving them.  Brown hasn't taken over the receiving room as we have hoped, but the season is young and there are a lot of games to go, but it bears to watch. Brown has a slight frame, we'd like him to add on 5-10 lbs, but in today's game, it isn't as much of a concern as it used to be about a decade ago.

Devy Value

Brown is a hold right now. I don't think anyone is too nervous with the slow start and I wouldn't be selling him. He's at worse the WR3 of the 2025 class.

NFL Outlook

Brown's speed gives him a safety net at the next level. We know guys with his type of game changing speed go in the first round purely on their speed and nothing else. His range of outcomes is easily a top-15 pick, and why his devy value is a hold.

Dynasty Dilemma: Rashee Rice

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Dynasty Dilemma: Rashee Rice

 

I'm going to begin by stating that I, Brendon Booth, H A T E the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, I don't say that because I've been a Raiders fan for over 40 years, although I do for that reason, as well. It's simply this: as a fantasy football analyst, I hate the fact that the Chiefs have rostered seven wide receivers and nobody knows what to do with them. I say this as an owner of Kadarius Toney. I say this as an owner of Justyn Ross. I say this as a 30% shareholder of Deneric Prince who was squeezed off of the 53-man roster to make room for KC's 7th WR. And I say this as an NON-owner of Rashee Rice, in spite of the fact that I would like to have him on one or more of my rosters.

Rice was a stud at pass-heavy SMU. He was drafted by the Chiefs in the 2nd round of the 2023 draft and you would think that draft capital would quickly earn him a heavy role in the Chiefs offense. There is just too much competition in that WR room to get a great feel of how he is going to be deployed. If he is an integral piece, earning a high enough target share from Patrick Mahomes to be relevant in fantasy, then he could be a nice waiver wire pick-up for you, if he's available. This is our dynasty dilemma. Let's dig a little deeper on this rookie, though, and see if we can figure something out together.

As I said, Rice holds 2nd round draft capital. While one of the prime indicators of fantasy success for wide receivers is being drafted in the first round, there are plenty of 2nd rounders that hold significant value. Christian Watson, George Pickens, and the Chiefs' own Skyy Moore were all 2nd rounders in 2022. 2021 saw Elijah and Rondale Moore both go early on Day 2. In 2020, the 2nd round WRs included Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Jr., and personal favorite Van Jefferson. While all of these guys vary in their potential offerings, you can see how 2nd rounders can be viable assets.

On the field, Rice presents some true upside. While his 4.51 combine 40-time isn't ideal, Rice offers elite level explosiveness with a 1.49 10-yard split placing him in the 92nd percentile, and a 41-inch vertical jump, good for a 96th percentile spot. In basketball, they call that "jumping out of the building." His 6'1", 204 lb frame makes him big enough to be a contested catch target and a red-zone threat as he plays even bigger than his stature. Rice is more than capable as a route-runner in short and intermediate situations but is even better on deep throws, and he is good at creating yards after the catch. He also shared college targets with fellow SMU teammates, now in the NFL, Danny Gray of the 49ers, and Philadelphia Eagles TE Grant Calcaterra.

Rashee Rice offers the size, skillset, athletic profile, and college pedigree that you want, and the draft capital of at least 6 WRs in the top 48 of dynasty rankings. His current DynastyPros ranking of 53 just screams "SLEEPER."

Did I mention that I hate the Chiefs' WR situation? Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore are poised just under TE Travis Kelce as starting targets for Patrick Mahomes. Justin Watson, Justyn Ross, Richie James, and Rice round out the receiving corps, with Rice listed on the depth chart as the backup Z, or flanker, to Toney. Now, Toney has a pretty sketchy injury history which could lead to the perfect opportunity for Rice to slide into the starting mix, but the Chiefs have stated that Rice, along with Ross will "start out as 'package' players." So IF there's an injury to Toney and Rice graduates to the flanker role, there could be some value there.

Depth chart position isn't the only thing working against Rice. Let's take a second and look at his teammate Skyy Moore and HIS situation as a rookie in Andy Reid's offense. Moore, again, also a 2nd round pick was limited to the point of irrelevance as a rookie. Moore is slightly smaller and a little bit faster than Rice, and is more suited to the Y or slot role, and he earned lower than a 30% target share as a rookie, in 16 games. He had 22 catches for 250 yards, had an average target depth of 7.7 yards, and earned just 5.7% of team air yards. Contrast that with fellow rookie George Pickens who, albeit in a different role, had one-third the drop rate of Moore and almost four times the receptions on three times the targets, an aDOT of 14.7 yards, and 27.4% of team air yards. If the Chiefs believe the best thing for Rice is to slowly acclimate, his only spot in your roster is on the taxi squad.

The final drawback to Rice hasn't anything to do with situation or ability, it's in his attitude. He has been reported as "nonchalant" in his intent and "takes plays off." He also hasn't shown a desire to increase his commitment to detail as a route runner and chooses to "get by" on size and physical abilities rather than technique. Reports are that he ran a very limited route-tree in college and a poor attitude means that he could be in trouble if he is supposed to improve in the NFL. If all Rice wants to do is run downfield and catch jump balls for glory, there is a place for that, but it won't equate to much production.

After investigation, I might be better off, at this point, not owning any shares of Rashee Rice, and you may be, too. That means, however, that his value is at an all-time low. If his usage rate mirrors Skyy Moore's as a rookie, Rice will definitely be worth a stash if you have a taxi squad spot open. His value is that of a handcuff running back or a mid to late 2nd round rookie pick in 2024 or 2025. If you are trading with a Rice owner, don't be afraid to add him to the receiving side in exchange for a 3rd rounder or a Jordan Mason type. If waiting on his potential, which he has plenty of, is good enough for Andy Reid, it should be good enough for us.

 

2023 Bold Predictions

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2023 Dynasty Bold Predictions

Disclaimer

There is a reason we call them BOLD predictions, a lot of bounces will need to go their way for any of these to come to fruition. These are all players, however, I think will take a leap in 2023, improving their dynasty outlook for years to come.   

 

Running Backs

James Cook, DynastyPro's current dynasty running back 30, finishes 2023 as a top 15 running back, firmly planting him as a top 15 dynasty running back.

James Cook had a fortunate offseason, and he is now poised to enter 2023 with every opportunity to become a featured piece of the Bill's offence. First off, the team loves him, they proved that by taking him in the 2nd round 63rd overall in the 2022 NFL draft. Pricey draft capital when you consider the state of the position. Cook was the third running back off the board in the 2022 NFL draft, only behind Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall. Cook can accelerate quickly, he has great hands, and great long speed, and this allows him to make big plays as a runner and pass catcher. His size is the biggest knock to his game, as many don’t believe his size can handle a heavy workload. Although not as small as Cook, we have seen similar style running backs like Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey smash. Those are obviously outliers, however NFL teams are evolving and now coveting smaller dual-threat running back/wide receiver hybrids and Cook falls perfectly into this category. The Bills parted ways with Devin Singletary this offseason, opening the door for Cook to seize the early-down role. The Bills did however, bring in veterans Damien Harris and Latavius Murray, but I don’t see them being big threats other than to each other, vulturing goal line work that Cook wasn’t getting anyhow.  In the two preseason games the Bills played their projected starters, Cook averaged an 80% snap share, received 79% of the rush attempts, had 70% route participation, and a 17% target share. These are all great signs, What’s more, Cook finished 2022; 2nd in true yards per carry with 5.3, 3rd in yards per touch with 6.3, and 1st in breakaway run rate 12.7% (Playerprofiler).  With all this said, if the stars align, Cook will smash this year and this bold prediction may not be too far-fetched.     

 

Tyjae Spears, DynastyPro's current dynasty running back 41, finishes 2023 as a top 24 running back, establishing him as a top 20 dynasty running back.

Tyjae Spears not having an ACL scared teams from drafting him ahead of guys like Kendre Miller and Zach Charbonnet. In 2022, his final year in college at Tulane, Spears rushed for 1581 and 21 tds in 2022, a monster season. After watching him spear through defenses this preseason, I am laying those ACL fears to rest. There is no way the Titans will be able to keep him off the field after this strong showing. He led the NFL this preseason with 4.73 yards after contact and finished 9th in yards per carry(Credit @SharpFootball), doing so while facing stacked boxes. One of the best handcuffs in all of football, behind an aging, heavily used, Derrick Henry. He is elusive and his explosion plays are a beautiful thing to watch. Spears is a great pass blocker and can catch the ball well. There is an immediate opening for Spears to take on the 3rd down role in Tennessee. He won’t disappoint with these early opportunities, leading him to take away a piece of Derrick Henry’s rushing load. Furthermore, he would immediately catapult into low-end RB1 with a Derrick Henry injury and become an instant league winner. By early-mid season Spears should carve out stand-alone value catapulting him into a top 24 finish.

 

 

Wide Receivers

 

Skyy Moore, DynastyPro's current dynasty wide receiver 57, finishes 2023 as a top 24 wide receiver, establishing himself as a top 24 dynasty wide receiver.

 

Skyy’s the limit when you have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes endorsing your offseason progress. There is a slot position and 135 vacated targets up for grabs in the Kansas City receiving corp. The draft capital that the Chiefs spent on Skyy Moore leads me to believe that he will get the first-crack vacated targets and that coveted slot position. In addition, he is playing every snap alongside Marquez Valdes-Scantling with the first-team offense.  I am confident he will make a right on his lackluster rookie season.

 

For a full breakdown of Skyy Moore’s dynasty value check out my Dynasty Dilemma on him, This goes deeper into this.  

https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-dilemma-skyy-moore/

 

Jahan Dotson, DynastyPro's current dynasty wide receiver 28, finishes 2023 as a top 15 wide receiver, establishing himself as a top 12 dynasty wide receiver. 

 

Jahan Dotson, is perhaps the most underrated 1st round wide receiver picked out of the 2022 rookie draft. As a rookie, Dotson finished 2022 tied for 14th in wide receiver touchdowns, even though he missed 5 games. No doubt the Commanders made an upgrade at quarterback, Sam Howell and Dotson showed chemistry in the one game they played last season, and looked dialed in with each other during the two pre-season games they played together. New offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, will surely plan to get Dotson into space and utilize his blazing speed, similar to how he did with Tyreek Hill in Kansas City. Dotson has got great hands posting an 81.4% catch rate, and was on pace for an incredible 10 touchdowns in his rookie season. Finally, Terry McLaurin is already battling a turf toe that he suffered in the pre-season. Chances are that McLaurin will miss at least a couple of games, allowing Dotson to start this season blazing, further improving Dotson’s outlook for a huge breakout in 2023.

 

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones, DynastyPro's current dynasty quarterback 16, finishes 2023 as a top 7 quarterback cementing him as a top 8 dynasty quarterback

Daniel Jones, sent shockwaves through the NFL when he was selected 6th overall in the 2019 NFL draft. This was a surprising move at the time, but still, one that many consider to be an outlandish selection. After a shaky start to his career, Jones has steadily improved his completion % each season, topping out at 67.2% in 2022.  Jones has also made strides in his ball protection, in his rookie season he threw 12 interceptions, improving this mark every single season, Jones only threw 5 interceptions in 2022. Everything you want to see from your franchise quarterback, and yes, we can call him a franchise quarterback after last season. Jones quietly finished 2022 as the QB 9, throwing the ball more than he ever did with 472 pass attempts. This number will surely only go up this year with the additions of Darren Waller and Jaylin Hyatt. Jones ran for 708 yards and 7 touchdowns, solidifying him as an under-the-radar dual-threat quarterback. Every offseason, Jones has made improvements to evolve his game and I think this offseason is no exception. He is looking a lot more confident in throwing into tight windows. The addition of Darren Waller will only benefit Jones positively, especially in the red zone where he has been inefficient at converting passing touchdowns.  Even a small 5th-year leap will make this bold prediction a more realistic expectation.   

 

Sam Howell, Dynasty Pros' current dynasty quarterback 30, posts a top-18 finish moving him into the top 15 of dynasty quarterbacks

 

Sam Howell is set for a big 2023, blessed with one of the most underrated and talented receiving corps in the NFL, with his arm ready to sling the ball 600+ times in the new Eric Bienemy offense. Bienemy is known for producing exceptional quarterbacks in his systems. There hasn’t been a quarterback in a Bienemy system to finish worse than the quarterback 7(credit Fantasy Gazette). I am not saying that Sam Howell is the next Patrick Mahomes, however, there is the potential for a legitimate breakout in this Bienemy system. Howell has some traits in his game similar to Mahomes’s that Bienemy is surely excited to work around; great arm strength, poise in the pocket, and sneaky mobility. Howell should emerge as a poor man’s Mahomes with all his similar traits. After a season on the bench waiting in the wings, Howell is poised to use his new weapons and flourish in his first year as a starting quarterback in the NFL.    

 

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid, DynastyPro's current tight end 8, finishes 2023 as a tight end 5, firmly planting him as a top 3 dynasty tight end

 

After another disappointing exit to the 2022 NFL playoffs, the Buffalo Bills were clearly in the market to upgrade their pass-catching room with their 1st round pick. Once the Power 4 wide receivers went off the board, the Bills went with the next best-receiving option in the draft by picking tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick. The Bills desperately need a big slot option to take pressure off of Stefon Diggs. Last season, in Utah, Kincaid was a slot machine, ranking amongst the best in the nation lining up there. The Bills traded up for Kincaid so he should see all the opportunities and targets that he can handle this season. He profiles similar to Travis Kelce, and the Bills are hopeful that their first-round pick can one day deliver similar top-tier production. 

If the Bills plan on using him like they are eluding us to believe, Kincaid is poised for a huge rookie season. Breaking the outlier that tight ends cannot produce big numbers in their rookie season.