Dynasty Dilemma

Dynasty Dilemma: Rashee Rice

by

Dynasty Dilemma: Rashee Rice

 

I'm going to begin by stating that I, Brendon Booth, H A T E the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, I don't say that because I've been a Raiders fan for over 40 years, although I do for that reason, as well. It's simply this: as a fantasy football analyst, I hate the fact that the Chiefs have rostered seven wide receivers and nobody knows what to do with them. I say this as an owner of Kadarius Toney. I say this as an owner of Justyn Ross. I say this as a 30% shareholder of Deneric Prince who was squeezed off of the 53-man roster to make room for KC's 7th WR. And I say this as an NON-owner of Rashee Rice, in spite of the fact that I would like to have him on one or more of my rosters.

Rice was a stud at pass-heavy SMU. He was drafted by the Chiefs in the 2nd round of the 2023 draft and you would think that draft capital would quickly earn him a heavy role in the Chiefs offense. There is just too much competition in that WR room to get a great feel of how he is going to be deployed. If he is an integral piece, earning a high enough target share from Patrick Mahomes to be relevant in fantasy, then he could be a nice waiver wire pick-up for you, if he's available. This is our dynasty dilemma. Let's dig a little deeper on this rookie, though, and see if we can figure something out together.

As I said, Rice holds 2nd round draft capital. While one of the prime indicators of fantasy success for wide receivers is being drafted in the first round, there are plenty of 2nd rounders that hold significant value. Christian Watson, George Pickens, and the Chiefs' own Skyy Moore were all 2nd rounders in 2022. 2021 saw Elijah and Rondale Moore both go early on Day 2. In 2020, the 2nd round WRs included Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Jr., and personal favorite Van Jefferson. While all of these guys vary in their potential offerings, you can see how 2nd rounders can be viable assets.

On the field, Rice presents some true upside. While his 4.51 combine 40-time isn't ideal, Rice offers elite level explosiveness with a 1.49 10-yard split placing him in the 92nd percentile, and a 41-inch vertical jump, good for a 96th percentile spot. In basketball, they call that "jumping out of the building." His 6'1", 204 lb frame makes him big enough to be a contested catch target and a red-zone threat as he plays even bigger than his stature. Rice is more than capable as a route-runner in short and intermediate situations but is even better on deep throws, and he is good at creating yards after the catch. He also shared college targets with fellow SMU teammates, now in the NFL, Danny Gray of the 49ers, and Philadelphia Eagles TE Grant Calcaterra.

Rashee Rice offers the size, skillset, athletic profile, and college pedigree that you want, and the draft capital of at least 6 WRs in the top 48 of dynasty rankings. His current DynastyPros ranking of 53 just screams "SLEEPER."

Did I mention that I hate the Chiefs' WR situation? Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore are poised just under TE Travis Kelce as starting targets for Patrick Mahomes. Justin Watson, Justyn Ross, Richie James, and Rice round out the receiving corps, with Rice listed on the depth chart as the backup Z, or flanker, to Toney. Now, Toney has a pretty sketchy injury history which could lead to the perfect opportunity for Rice to slide into the starting mix, but the Chiefs have stated that Rice, along with Ross will "start out as 'package' players." So IF there's an injury to Toney and Rice graduates to the flanker role, there could be some value there.

Depth chart position isn't the only thing working against Rice. Let's take a second and look at his teammate Skyy Moore and HIS situation as a rookie in Andy Reid's offense. Moore, again, also a 2nd round pick was limited to the point of irrelevance as a rookie. Moore is slightly smaller and a little bit faster than Rice, and is more suited to the Y or slot role, and he earned lower than a 30% target share as a rookie, in 16 games. He had 22 catches for 250 yards, had an average target depth of 7.7 yards, and earned just 5.7% of team air yards. Contrast that with fellow rookie George Pickens who, albeit in a different role, had one-third the drop rate of Moore and almost four times the receptions on three times the targets, an aDOT of 14.7 yards, and 27.4% of team air yards. If the Chiefs believe the best thing for Rice is to slowly acclimate, his only spot in your roster is on the taxi squad.

The final drawback to Rice hasn't anything to do with situation or ability, it's in his attitude. He has been reported as "nonchalant" in his intent and "takes plays off." He also hasn't shown a desire to increase his commitment to detail as a route runner and chooses to "get by" on size and physical abilities rather than technique. Reports are that he ran a very limited route-tree in college and a poor attitude means that he could be in trouble if he is supposed to improve in the NFL. If all Rice wants to do is run downfield and catch jump balls for glory, there is a place for that, but it won't equate to much production.

After investigation, I might be better off, at this point, not owning any shares of Rashee Rice, and you may be, too. That means, however, that his value is at an all-time low. If his usage rate mirrors Skyy Moore's as a rookie, Rice will definitely be worth a stash if you have a taxi squad spot open. His value is that of a handcuff running back or a mid to late 2nd round rookie pick in 2024 or 2025. If you are trading with a Rice owner, don't be afraid to add him to the receiving side in exchange for a 3rd rounder or a Jordan Mason type. If waiting on his potential, which he has plenty of, is good enough for Andy Reid, it should be good enough for us.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Tyler Lockett

by

Dynasty Dilemma: Tyler Lockett

 

 

Under the coaching of Pete Carroll, the Seahawk's offense has always been steady. In recent years they have been able to reach the postseason but have consistently failed to get to that NFC championship. With 2023 NFL draft picks Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) at receiver and Zack Charbonnet at running back, the Seahawks are looking to add depth to this offense and provide competition to start. Everyone knows that the WR1 on this Seahawks offense is DK Metcalf, but now, with the addition of JSN, people are questioning the share of targets that the current WR2, Tyler Lockett, might receive. I am here to put these questions to rest and show you the value that Tyler Lockett brings. 

 

 

REASONS TO BUY

Consistency

Tyler Lockett was drafted in 2015 by the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2019, Tyler Lockett has put up four consecutive seasons finishing with over 1000 receiving yards, nine touchdowns, and over 100 targets, with DK Metcalf as the primary receiver. Tyler Lockett is being taken 2-3 rounds after wide receivers like Jerry Jeudy and Mike Williams, averaging 100 fewer yards and two fewer touchdowns than Tyler Lockett. He finished as WR13 and has over a 70% catch rate which is better than players like Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Christian Kirk, and Keenan Allen. Tyler Lockett is being taken 3-4 rounds after Chargers WR Kennan Allen, who finished with 400 fewer yards, five fewer touchdowns, and 20 fewer receptions. To add to his incredible catch rate, Tyler Lockett has a 2% drop rate on passes 0-9 yards and a 9.1% drop rate on passes 20+ yards with a 0% drop rate from passes between 10-19 yards. 

 

STATS VIA PFF: 

Player:Rec. Yards Touchdowns Targets/Rec Overall NFL Rank: WROverall ADP/Position  
Tee Higgins 1,0297109/7420 31 overall 

15th WR 

Keenan Allen 752489/66946 Overall 

20th WR 

Jerry Jeudy9726100/672053 overall 

22nd WR 

Mike Williams 895493/631863 overall

27th WR 

Tyler Lockett 1,0339117/842273 overall 

31st WR

 

Every one of the four wide receivers listed above averaged fewer touchdowns, fewer yards, fewer targets, and fewer receptions. Still, all managed to be ranked above Tyler Lockett and are taken above Tyler Lockett in drafts. Keenan Allen is older than Tyler Lockett, but people continue to draft him despite his age. Tyler Lockett is younger and more efficient while still being the WR2 in Seattle. The last column of this chart illustrates that Lockett has the highest ADP at 73rd overall and the 31st WR but has the best statistics out of someone like Tee Higgins, who is ranked 15 WRs above. 

 

Good Offense

Geno Smith finished as the QB5 last season with over 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. Kenneth Walker and Tyler Lockett shared the team lead with nine touchdowns. Considering that Tyler Lockett is still seen as a WR2, he finishes with more touchdowns than DK Metcalf and only has 15 fewer receiving yards, even when DK has 24 more targets. If anything, the stats show that Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf share the role as WR1, but DK has an ADP of 36th overall, whereas Tyler Lockett's ADP is 73rd overall. Pete Carroll is also an established coach, and with the help of Shane Waldron (Offensive coordinator), the Seahawks continue to fight for the top of the NFC West. 

 

 

 

REASONS TO SELL

 

Production

Well, everyone is thinking the same thing… Won't Tyler Lockett's numbers diminish with the addition of JSN? Undoubtedly, the Seahawks have a plan for JSN because they would not waste their first-round pick on a WR they have no intention of playing. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has JSN ranked as the WR1 coming out of this draft class, and he produced over 1,550 receiving yards and nine touchdowns his sophomore year at Ohio State. There has also been recent news on his strides during training camp, and Pete Carroll likes what he sees. "We're looking for the spots we can put him in, how to move him around and see how much he can handle. There's nothing that's holding him back. He's hitting it off with Geno well right now." (Pete Carroll)." It is no doubt that JSN is a talented athlete who knows the game of football. Pete Carroll said they are looking for a spot for him, indicating that their two WRs are already set and looking to utilize his talent in a different location. JSN will be a part of this offense, but Tyler Lockett will not lose his share of production. 

 

Age

Tyler Lockett is now 30 years old and was drafted in 2015. Everyone knows football is a demanding sport to play as you continue to get older. One prime example of this is Adam Thielen. Adam Thielen is 32 years old, turning 33 this year. The height of Thielen's career was seen in 2016-2018 when he reached the 1000-yard receiving mark, but once he got to 2019, he began to fall off and reach the 500-700-yard receiving area. Tyler Lockett could see a similar situation where his age could cause him not to produce the numbers you are looking for. However, Adam Thielen's production was cut short due to the selection of Justin Jefferson in 2020, which moved Thielen to WR2. 

 

VERDICT

All in all, even with the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the crowded receiving core, Tyler Lockett will be the one WR whose production will not be affected. For the last four years, even with DK Metcalf, Lockett has been consistent with his 1000-yard seasons and 8+ touchdowns. Even with JSN, I am confident his workload will not diminish, and he will be the one WR staying consistent. Considering this is a Dynasty League, I would buy Tyler Lockett. The Dynasty Pros Trade Calculator believes Tyler Locket can be traded for 2024 late 2nd or Early 3rd. At that price, you can't 'smash' accept quickly enough!


BUY

Dynasty Dilemma: Kenneth Gainwell

by

Dynasty Dilemma

Kenneth Gainwell

 

Training camp battles are heating up as we draw closer to the start of the regular season. Late summer is the time of year when roster spots are being won and lost.

My home town Philadelphia Eagles is no exception.

The reigning NFC champs have multiple positional battles underway this training camp, one of them being running back. Miles Sanders signed with Carolina in the offseason, leaving a 57% snap share up for grabs in the 5th best-rushing offense last year. With some familiar faces returning and some new bodies in this backfield, drafters are trying to figure out who will be the RB1 in Philly.

The Eagles added talent to the running back room this offseason by trading for DeAndre Swift and signing Rashaad Penny. The two are the clear candidates for most of the work out of this backfield. But what if I told you there was a 3rd guy in that locker room being overlooked by most? A guy who, last year, led the team in rushing throughout the playoffs?

Enter Kenneth Gainwell.

Gainwell is entering his 3rd year with Philadelphia, and challenging questions must be asked. Given the signing of both Penny and Swift, is there any opportunity for Gainwell on this offense? Should I be looking to move on from him? Is he worth taking a flier on? Is he a ‘value buy’ in Dynasty?

I hope to help answer some of those questions as we dive deeper into Kenneth Gainwell.

 

Reasons To Buy

Mini Camp Reports

Part of being a strong dynasty manager is staying AHEAD of the news. Following local beat reporters and columnists (Jeff McLane is an excellent follow for Eagles fans/ @JeffMcLane on ‘X’) who are on the ground at training camp can give you the exact edge you need over your league mates. With new faces and returning vets, the running back position has been one to watch thus far for the Philadelphia Eagles.

As of writing this, we’re two full weeks into training camp, and I’m here to share with you some surprising reports.

According to Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks on ‘X’), Gainwell has the most carries (40) and, most importantly, the most carries with the first-team offense (21) among running backs. Reports out of camp point to Swift working primarily in a pass-catching role and Penny being involved mainly with the 2nd and 3rd team offense. This current arrangement should have Gainwell managers optimistic. While it is early, this is noteworthy and a must-follow as we approach drafts and seek preseason dynasty trades.

Gainwell getting work with the first-team offense shouldn’t be that shocking, as he was their most effective runner down the stretch for their Super Bowl run. However, his lack of usage in the Eagle’s first preseason game against Baltimore (resting alongside the first-team offense) is surprising. It shows how comfortable coaches are in what they’ve seen of Gainwell in camp. 

Gainwell is someone I’ve watched closely over the last two years. He was always a guy I’ve wanted to get more touches on, and the Eagles have the same idea heading into the season (27% snap share in the Superbowl).

The Eagles’ backfield will be a committee backfield, but if Gainwell continues to see most of his snaps coming with the first-team offense, it becomes easy to see a path for a career year.

 

Eagles Offense

The Eagles’ offense last year was 5th in total rushing yards, 1st in rushing TDs, and 3rd in rushing attempts. They love to run the ball and do it behind the best O-Line in football. Miles Sanders put up 1269 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. Those are vacated carries, yards, and touchdowns within an offense that looks poised to repeat success heading into 2023.

The Eagles didn’t throw a ton to their running backs last year, as they were bottom of the league in pass attempts to the position. However, when they did decide to throw in the direction of a running back, passes were going to Gainwell. He led all RBs for Philly in catches (23), targets (29), and yards (169). 

Now most feel that Swift will take over most of the pass-catching work in this backfield, and only time will tell. But his targets will continue because Gainwell was the best pass-catching running back last year for the Eagles.

I expect this to be an RBBC (running back by committee) situation, but if Gainwell is the first guy up and the cheapest out of the three, I’d like to get my hands on a few shares in Dynasty and at the end of redrafts.

 

Cost

In Dynasty, Gainwell is almost a throw-in piece for most trades. Looking at the Dynasty Pros trade calculator, he is valued right around a 2024 3rd-round pick. Where else can you find a potential starter in a top 5 offense for a 3rd… I’ll wait… 

Other players at that price point are veterans like Hunter Renfrow and DJ Chark or unproven rookies like Chase Brown and Darnell Washington. Give me Gainwell over all of them.

In Dynasty, we take shots at guys to win our league. Penny and Swift will cost you much more to acquire, and neither is under contract with the Eagles after this season. Gainwell has two years left on his rookie deal, and if he genuinely is the Eagles’ first choice at the position, the ROI on Gainwell can be huge. I don’t see the risk baked in at this price. At worst, he is a young running back who can catch passes in a great offense. At best, we’re looking at the RB1 with the Eagles and a potential top-24 RB in fantasy.

 

Reasons to Sell

Competition

Rashaad Penny and DeAndre Swift have arrived in Philly. Since entering the league, Swift has finished as RB 20, 24, and 23 in PPR formats. When healthy, Penny has shown he can be hyper-efficient on the ground, leading the league in YPC (Yards Per Carry) since entering the NFL in 2018. Both players have had challenges staying healthy. Swift has yet to have an NFL season where he’s played more than 14 games, and Penny hasn’t had a season where he’s played ten or more games since his rookie year in 2018.

Swift and Penny are your top rotation going into the season for Philadelphia. These two have shown to be effective options for the position, and overall, they might be better talents than Gainwell when healthy.

Running QB

Jalen Hurts is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league. Last year, he accounted for 165 rushing attempts and 13 rushing TDs. Hurts vulture goal line work and ran the QB sneak to near perfection in short-yardage situations. The effectiveness of Hurts in the short-yardage inevitably limits a running back’s touchdown upside. There is nothing worse for fantasy managers than being first and goal at the one-yard line, and the quarterback takes what should be an easy 6 points for your running back. 

Another way RBs earn points in fantasy is through the air. Unfortunately for those looking to invest in this backfield, the Eagles were tied for last in the league at pass attempts to the position.

I expect this to stay the same in 2023. I fully expect the Eagles to continue what has worked: getting Hurts involved in the running game. His legs keep defenses on edge, and with the Eagles looking to repeat as NFC Champions, they’ll need to utilize all of Hurts’ tools.

For Dynasty managers, this will cap the potential production of all RBs in this backfield. With the volume Hurts receives in the ground game and the lack of pass attempts to RBs, a top 5 fantasy finish at the position is nearly impossible.

“Failure to Launch”

With Gainwell going into his 3rd year, why he hasn’t made more of an impact since being drafted needs to be answered.

Gainwell, in his first two NFL seasons, had Miles Sanders and Boston Scott ahead of him on the depth chart. Scott has been more of a depth piece for the Eagles in recent years, whereas Sanders commanded 70% of the possible running back carries last season. Now, I’m not a Miles Sanders guy. I’ve watched games where he would need more time to hit holes and sometimes will miss them entirely. This ineffectiveness by Sanders is even more glaring when you’re running behind the best O-Line in football. This rushing attack could have been better last season with a more explosive runner. I’m just not sold on that guy being Kenneth Gainwell… 

With Sanders being just an average NFL starter (in my opinion), I would have liked to see Gainwell start to command some of that volume last year. I would have liked to see more out of Gainwell in his first two years in the league. Since entering the NFL, Gainwell has never had a season with over 68 carries. At 5’9 200 lbs, he lacks the size of a “prototypical” every down back, and it’s hard to imagine him handling a “Miles Sanders” type workload. 

 

Verdict

Based on current ADP and most consensus rankings, Gainwell is a must-buy for Dynasty managers. Dynasty Pros currently has him as RB50 in Dynasty rankings. If reports out of camp are accurate and Gainwell is the starter heading into the year, Dynasty has no better value right now. Expect this to be a committee backfield, but if Gainwell truly is the RB1, he is in line for a tremendous season, regardless. 

Hurts will inevitably take away carries and TDs, just as he did last year, but even so, Miles Sanders finished as RB15 in PPR formats. The Eagles are a potent offense, and there is plenty of volume for the running backs to share. I expect this rushing attack to be just as effective as last year and for Gainwell to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. 

Both Swift and Penny are free agents after the season. Being the cheaper option out of the three, I’m happy to take shots on Gainwell, given his price. If you can get Gainwell right now for a 2023 3rd-round pick, smash accept and thank me later.

Be ahead of this news and pick up Gainwell wherever he is available.

BUY

Dynasty Dilemma: Rachaad White

by

DYNASTY DILEMMA:  

Rachaad White  

Tampa Bay. Home to a booming cigar industry, beautiful beaches,  and the 2021 Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. But the team that took home the Lombardi trophy after a convincing 31-9 win over Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs 2 seasons ago is going to look a lot different heading into this year after a disappointing 2022 season that fell well short of expectations. Gone from the sideline are the talented offensive minds of Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich. Gone are offensive weapons like Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette, and Cameron Brate. And most importantly, gone is the greatest QB to ever play the game, Tom Brady (Happy Retirement, GOAT!).  

This year’s Bucs’ offense is currently loaded with question marks as it looks to shake off last year and move into the post-Brady era on the right track. The question we’re going to dive into in this article, though, is the running back position. Will Rachaad White be able to fill the Leonard Fournette-sized hole in the Bucs’ backfield? Let’s take a look at some key factors to help us figure this one out.  

REASONS TO SELL  

Efficiency  

Data and analytics tell the story of what is actually happening on the field, and the numbers were not exactly favorable for White in his rookie year. Among qualifying running backs in 2022, White ranks as below-average to poor in several metrics. 

 Avg. Rush Yards After Contact – 58th out of 60  RBs  

 Explosive Run Rate – 57th out of 60  

 Rush Grade – 53rd out of 60  

 Rush Yards Over Expected per Attempt – 42nd out  of 48  

 DVOA – 34th out of 42 (minimum 100 rush  attempts)  

In addition, he ranked 65th in the league in true yards per carry with 3.6, according to PlayerProfiler.com. All of this leaves a lot to be desired when talking about White as a runner, and his yards per reception number of 5.8 is well below the NFL average for running backs of 7.3, according to StatMuse.com. If he is going to turn into the kind of player you feel comfortable putting in your lineup every week, White will need to take a big jump forward in his efficiency in both rushing and receiving.  

QB Play  

Let’s be honest, there is no world where you must replace the greatest quarterback of all time and not expect a drop-off. Tampa Bay’s quarterback situation heading into the 2023 season is looking much worse than Bucs’ fans would hope for, however. Whether it is Baker  Mayfield or Kyle Trask at the helm, you shouldn’t expect high-quality play from the Bucs’ signal caller. Bad quarterback play will inevitably lead to a stagnant offense that is unable to move the ball. With yards and touchdowns being crucial to scoring fantasy points, it is hard to see any Buccaneer being an elite contributor to your team if the quarterback can’t consistently move the offense down the field. From a long-term perspective, most early projections are pointing towards the Bucs taking a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft, meaning there will likely be some rookie growing pains to work through next season. With the reasonable expectation that high-level play at the quarterback position is at least a season and a half away, it’s looking like it is going to be a little while before we can trust the Bucs’ offense to get anywhere near the dominant unit it was during Brady’s time there.

 

REASONS TO BUY  

Opportunity & Volume  

Despite the negatives, there is a clear path to a high volume of touches for Rachaad White. At the moment, Baker Mayfield seems to be in the driver’s seat for the starting job in Tampa. I  know, I know, I just talked about how bad the Bucs’ quarterback play could be this season but hear me out. Since coming into the league, Mayfield has been in the top 10 in targeting the running back position. It’s easy to chalk this up to him playing alongside elite pass-catching running backs like Kareem Hunt and Christian McCaffery, but it might surprise you to know that White actually fits into that mold pretty well. As a prospect coming out of Arizona State, White was 1 of only 5 running backs that averaged 90+ yards rushing AND 40+ yards receiving per game over the course of a full season while playing for a Power 5 program. The other 4? Christian McCaffery, Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, and Joe Mixon. That is some very good company to be in when talking about White as a 3-down workhorse type of back. After finishing with 50 receptions on 58 targets while splitting time with Fournette as a rookie, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if White sees 70-80+ targets with Mayfield as his full-season starting quarterback this year. As for his rushing usage, Tampa Bay brought in effectively no competition, with a declining Chase Edmonds and career backup Ke’Shawn Vaughn behind him on the depth chart. This gives merit to OC Dave Canales’ statements about Tampa expecting White to be their every down running back. The opportunity is there for him this season to be, at worst, a volume-based RB3 with potential for RB2 numbers.  

 

Improvement in Efficiency/OL Improvement 

While I mentioned how poor White was in certain metrics in 2022,  I failed to mention a huge piece of the puzzle that contributed to that. The Buccaneers’ 2022 offensive line was horrendous, and that’s putting it mildly. They began the year losing 2 of their top starters in Ali Marpet and Alex Cappa (Marpet to retirement and  Cappa to free agency). The personnel problems only got worse  for them when they lost 2 more key starters, Ryan Jensen and  

Aaron Stinnie, to significant knee injuries. Finally, rookie Luke  Goedeke went down later in the year with a foot injury. All of this led to a Bucs’ offensive line that finished 2022 ranked 28th in Adj. Line Yards, 25th in Stuffed Run Rate, and 25th in Power Success Rate. It is a huge ask for any running back to put up good efficiency numbers when they are consistently being met at or behind the line of scrimmage, and an even bigger ask for a rookie. There is reason to believe that the Bucs’ offensive line will be much improved in 2023 and beyond, though. Ryan Jensen and Aaron Stinnie are both back and healthy to anchor the line alongside Pro Bowl tackle Tristan Wirfs (3/5 starters from the 2021 SB team that was considered a top unit in the NFL), and all 3 are under contract until 2025. Luke Goedeke and Robert Hainsey are also signed for the next couple of years and should be expected to take a step forward this year. Newcomers Matt Feiler and rookie Cody Mauch will also provide some much-needed help. After the disaster that was the 2022 season, this offensive line has nowhere to go but up and all reports indicate that they are heading in that direction. Expect Rachaad White to have a much more efficient season running behind a line that is due for some positive regression, and will be together for the duration of White’s rookie deal.  

 

VERDICT  

 

A lack of competition, the support of his coaching staff, and the clear upside if things work out make this a no-brainer. In today’s  NFL, workhorse running backs are few and far between, and White is currently undervalued due to how the community views Tampa’s projected 2023 offense. While I understand the concern in Redraft leagues to some extent, that actually works in our favor for dynasty purposes. White, 24 years old, should be heading into 2024 with an elite prospect as his new quarterback in either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. When that happens, the optimism should cause his value to skyrocket. This offseason, however, he can be bought for the cost of players like Diontae Johnson or Hollywood Brown who both have some pretty big question marks of their own and could cause managers a lot of headaches over the next 2 years. Owners of aging RBs with efficiency or volume concerns like Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones can reload at the position by offering their older back + a late 2nd or early 3rd for White if the trade situation is available. I know the Bucs’ offense this year can seem a bit scary to invest in, but don’t overthink it. Buy yourself some Rachaad White. You won’t regret it.  

BUY 

Dynasty Dilemma: Sam LaPorta

by

Dynasty Dilemma: Sam LaPorta

 

And we’re back for another Dynasty Dilemma. Last week, I wrote about 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk (go check it out if you haven’t already!) Today, I will be switching positions to Tight End (TE) and highlighting a rookie who was just drafted in the 2023 NFL Draft. 2023 was a great draft for Tight Ends, starting off with Dalton Kincaid in the First Round. Kincaid is the first TE to be drafted in the first round since Kyle Pitts in 2021. To build off that, there were FIVE TEs drafted in the second round. I plan to talk about the very first one, second TE off the board, Sam LaPorta. LaPorta was drafted by the Detroit Lions with the 34th overall pick from Iowa University.

 

REASON TO BUY

 

Lions New TE1

The Detroit Lions were an ideal landing spot for Sam LaPorta. They’re a high-powered offense who have seen fantasy success for Tight Ends in the past. The Lions were a top 5 offense in the NFL last season with 45 total TDs scored, 4,281 receiving yards, and 2,179 rushing yards (6,460 total yards). Throughout OTAs and training camp, it’s become evident that the Lions want LaPorta to fit right into that TE1 role. “He’s earned the right now to be in that first-team huddle with Jared and that offensive line,” Lions offensive coordinator (OC) Ben Johnson said when asked about LaPorta. He goes on to say that “[LaPorta has proven himself] over the course of the springtime and the work that he’s put in…He’s still learning, and we are putting a lot of pressure on him to pick it up, but I think he’s in a good spot for a first-year tight end.” According to the Athletic, LaPorta is also getting work with the second and third-team offenses to maximize reps. All of this is evidence that the Lions expect LaPorta to start at TE for their season opener against the Kansas City Chiefs. 

 

Hock is Out, LaPorta is In

The Lions TE position dramatically opened up after Lions traded their star TE T.J. Hockenson to a division rival, the Minnesota Vikings. Also on their roster at TE, the Lions have Brock Wright and Shane Zylstra. Zylstra, unfortunately, suffered a serious knee injury during training camp and might miss the next 6 months. While injuries are unlucky and unfortunate, everyone around football knows they’re a part of the game. LaPorta’s only real competition for that TE1 spot is Brock Wright. Wright is mainly used as a blocking TE in the Lions offensive scheme as he only had 24 targets over 17 games played during the 2022 season. Now, what does this mean for fantasy owners if LaPorta does end up becoming their TE1? In 2020, TJ Hockenson finished as a top 5 TE with 175.3 total points (PPR) and 11 points per game (ppg). During that season, he had 6 TDs, 723 receiving yards, and 67 receptions (101 targets). During the 2021 season, Hock only played 12 games due to injury but still finished as a Top 5 TE in fantasy ppg. He averaged 12.1 fantasy ppg (PPR) with 61 receptions, 583 yards, and 4 TDs. Previous season stats tell us that Sam LaPorta is on a high scoring offense that likes to target TE and can support a Fantasy TE1. 

 

Draft Capital 

The Detroit Lions spent an early 2nd round pick on Sam LaPorta and it makes sense why. LaPorta went to Iowa University and was able to start two games his freshman year. During his sophomore year at Iowa, he started 5/8 games where he had 27 receptions, 271 yards, and 1 TD. He became a big part of the Iowa offense as a junior where he became a full-time starter. He put up over 600 yards his junior AND senior year and holds Iowa’s record for first among TEs in receptions and second in total yards. LaPorta has shown reliable hands and is great at securing the football. His strong pass catching abilities are what made him really stand out at Iowa as he’s able to use his size to make tough, contested catches while being able to hold onto the football. Additionally Iowa, under Kirk Ferentz, is known for producing great TEs that perform at a very high level in the NFL. Two Iowa alumni include George Kittle and T.J. Hockenson. Both Kittle and Hock have put up multiple TE1 seasons in the NFL and have been a huge part of their respective offenses. Kittle is well known for his yards after catch (YAC) which LaPorta has shown a similar knack for at Iowa. It won’t be long before LaPorta succeeds at the pro level. 

 

 

REASON TO SELL

 

Rookie TE

Obviously, Sam LaPorta is unproven. He’s a rookie! He’s never played an NFL snap and we have no idea how he will actually perform under the big lights. Historically, rookie TE haven’t done so well their first year. A general consensus around the league is that it takes about 3 years for a Tight End to fully develop in the National Football League. LaPorta also doesn’t have elite speed. He ran a 4.59 second 40 yard dash at the Combine which wasn’t great and not bad either. Another large aspect of being an NFL TE is being able to block. LaPorta was able to improve his blocking skills throughout his career at Iowa but wouldn’t be considered one of his strengths. We need to hope he can work on these skills to perform at the next level.

 

Crowded Offense

The Lions also spent significant draft capital on another skill position in the 2023 draft when they drafted RB Jahmyr Gibbs in the First Round. Dan Campbell has mentioned multiple times that he expects Gibbs to be a large part of their offense on the ground and in the passing game. Amon-Ra St. Brown is another superstar on this offense and a favorite target of Jared Goff. The Lions also expect to have Jameson Williams after his suspension ends before Week 7. Both young WR could hurt LaPorta’s production in the passing game. We must hope the Lions will once again be that high powered offense from last season where Jared Goff can distribute the ball to multiple targets and sustain high fantasy production. 

 

Verdict

Sam LaPorta is flying under the radar right now and I am imploring you all to take advantage. He is a Strong Buy at his current ADP.  LaPorta has ALL the skills to be a great TE in the NFL and will boast multiple TE1 seasons allowing for a very strong ROI. It’s important for Dynasty players to take advantage now and buy low this summer before he reaches the national stage this upcoming season. The Lions are a great landing spot for Sam LaPorta and training camp reports reveal their dedication to his development. His market value is on the rise, and everyone should cash in before it’s too late.

 

BUY

Dynasty Dilemma: Russell Wilson

by

Dynasty Dilemma: Russell Wilson

by Brendon Booth

 

Russell Wilson has been an absolute mainstay in fantasy football leagues for the last 10 years. He was the Seattle Seahawks starting quarterback from day one of his rookie season after being drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft out of Wisconsin, by way of North Carolina State. A multi-sport athlete, Wilson was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in 2007 but elected to play both sports at NC St. In 2010, the Colorado Rockies drafted him again and he played in their minor league system for two years. He arrived in Seattle with previous experience in professional, as well as “big time” sports. 

At 5’11” and just over 210 pounds, Wilson is not the prototypical NFL QB in terms of stature, but Seattle seemed to have made a great choice as “DangeRuss” helped lead the Seahawks to back-to-back Super Bowls in 2013 and 2014. He even earned himself a ring in 2013. Over the course of his career, Wilson earned himself a reputation as a winner and a durable QB. From 2012 to 2020 he had only winning seasons, and he never missed a game. That all changed in 2021. Wilson missed 3 games due to injury and the Seahawks finished with a record of 6-8 in the games he played. He followed up 2021 with the worst statistical season of his career in 2022 for the Denver Broncos, and finished with a record of 4-11 in the games he played, again missing time with injury.

What we have in Russell Wilson is a 9 time Pro-Bowler with a Super Bowl ring, the 5th most TD passes among active QBs, and the 5th highest career QB rating ever, but he’s entering the season in which he will turn 35 years old. So, what do we do with Russell Wilson?

 

REASON TO BUY

People don’t just forget how to play football, and Wilson is bringing 11 seasons of knowledge to the Broncos and new head coach Sean Payton. Wilson also has 8 Top 10 fantasy finishes in his career. His worst two finishes, each in the last two years, were both QB16. He also threw for his lowest TD total of any year of his career in 2022. Enter Payton. Some people see Sean Payton as a “fixer.” He has an established system with proven success earned in New Orleans including three NFC Championship game appearances and a Super Bowl win. Payton knows what he’s doing. I’ll mention, too, that the Super Bowl was won with another QB who was considered “undersized”, in Drew Brees. Payton spent the offseason building around Russ. He brought in offensive linemen and a new running back in free agency, and targeted a speedy wide receiver in the draft. 

With very little positive regression back toward his normal performance levels, Wilson could easily see an improvement on his ranking.

 

 

 

REASON TO SELL

Sometimes when the end comes, it comes faster than we realize. They call that “falling off the cliff” when it comes to performance. Russ never missed a game in 9 years. The last two seasons, he’s missed time due to injury. Age is as big a factor as the team around him. Yes, the Broncos as a whole were terrible last season, but Wilson’s skill level couldn’t elevate the team, as it may have done in previous seasons. If we assess who knows Wilson better than anybody, we’d probably find that to be Pete Carroll, and he knew it was time to move on. Quarterback values tend to decline beginning at age 32. That is exactly when Wilson’s decline began. There tends to be an uptick from age 35 to age 36 but that is attributed more to the overall ability of QBs that actually make it to their age 36 season. Russ doesn’t appear to be in that tier of player and what that means for him is that his value will hover at about half of what it was in his prime over the next two seasons. Wilson is not Drew Brees and he never was. Brees sustained success into his 40’s and was in his own prime at the age Wilson is now. Payton is another factor. He inherited Wilson. If the Broncos ship doesn’t recover, Payton likely won’t hesitate to bring in his own guy that he believes can do it. Do we want to be the owners to watch all of that play out?

 

 

VERDICT

Wilson is currently ranked as DynastyPros QB21 in Superflex leagues, Wilson SHOULD outperform his ADP, but if he’s your QB2, now is the time to make a move. Wilson is an advantageous trade piece with similar value in our trade calculator to Jordan Love, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, and Sam Howell. Shoot offers to owners of all of those QBs straight-up if you’re in a rebuild mode. If you’re contending, Russ and a 2024 2nd for Daniel Jones comes out pretty even. Just remember, my trade proposals are starting points. It may take more or less from either side to finesse the situation, but the bottom line is we’re in offload mode.

Startups, Best Ball, Redrafts are all the same, fade and avoid.

 

SELL