Dynasty Dilemma

Dynasty Dilemma: Adam Thielen

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Dynasty Dilemma: Adam Thielen

By Jonathan Walker

 

Free agent receiver Adam Thielen has found a new home. Nine days after the Vikings released him, Thielen has agreed to terms with the Panthers. He announced the deal on Instagram just before the team did. The Panthers need to rebuild their receiving corps after trading DJ Moore to the Bears as part of the deal for the No. 1 overall pick. So where does this put Adam Thielen as far as fantasy football goes? I'm here to give you some things to consider when thinking about Thielen in your dynasty league.

 

 

For the last 3 season Adam has brought in north of 65 receptions, and over 700 yards and 6+ touchdowns every year. Now with him being in Carolina, will his numbers increase? If Carolina signs D.J Chark (which is still a FA), will Adam will go back to being nothing more than a flex play in fantasy? He may not produce the numbers to be a starting WR in fantasy, but he will score enough to be a solid flex player. Also with Carolina having the #1 overall pick, they will most likely bring in a rookie QB. Having a veteran like Thielen playing the slot position, it creates a nice safety blanket for a rookie who is trying to get use to playing in the NFL. Adam Thielen is a great red-zone threat due to his knowledge playing the slot position. As well as knowing where to find the open spot of the defense.

Reasons to buy Adam Thielen his buying price is very low, if you are in a draft he will most likely drop to the later rounds due to his age, and the amount of WR’s there are to draft. Thielen was ranked as the #66 WR last year. Another reason to buy is to fill your flex position. He will get his receptions and yards being a slot WR, and for a flex player that’s is all you are looking for. Who will get me points when I need them? Is the question most asked when looking for flex players.

Adam is your guy, if that is your question during the later rounds of the draft. He has been a great security blanket for his QB. Being able to read a defense and understand where the open spots are and knowing where to be to get the QB out of a bad spot. I feel that the biggest reason to buy Adam is due to the face that Carolina will most likely draft a rookie QB as stated before. Some rookies have a hard time adjusting to the NFL, players are a lot better than what they played in college. Defensives are smarter, and Offensives are hard to understand. Having a nice security blanket in Adam Thielen will help that Rookie QB get acclimated to the NFL.

 

 

If you have Adam should you trade him? Yes, because the ultimate question is do you want to win. If so Adam doesn’t have the production to win fantasy games, he has the production to loose you games. Adam is entering his 9th season in the NFL, so his age is of major concern. It is hard trying to keep up with the younger more fresh WR’s when you are 32 years old. Injuries start to sneak up on you, and you don’t recover as fast. Thielen has been pretty durable throughout his career, but this has to be considered.

Would you count on Adam Thielen as your weekly flex player? Maybe, but why would you draft Thielen for flex when you can draft another TE or RB (which are both deep positions in fantasy). IF you are starting a new startup do you draft Adam? No, there are other flex players that will produce more than Thielen that you can grab later in the draft. Then there is the biggest concern regarding the WR position in Carolina, what happens with DJ Chark? If Carolina signs DJ that means all the passing offense will primarily go through him, leaving Adam on the outside once again.

 

Am I buying or selling? That's the question. The only reason I'd pass on him is if I'm in a new startup dynasty. Otherwise, I'm buying Thielen. The bottom line is he can help you win each week. He can be a solid Flex that costs you pretty much nothing. I've seen him traded for a 3rd round rookie pick. I'd do that all day for a player who can contribute week 1. Thielen is low risk, and worth grabbing on the cheap.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Jimmy Garoppolo

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jimmy Garoppolo

By Joe Goodwin

 

Jimmy Garoppolo has spent a majority of his NFL career as a “player-in-waiting.” In that, I mean he was a player that everyone was anticipating taking a leap into the upper tier of quarterbacks. And, based off of some games, he has shown the potential to be that player.

Garoppolo had performed as a top 12 fantasy quarterback in 4 games last year. In those games, he averaged: 34 passing attempts, 23 completions, 270 yards, 2.5 touchdowns, and 3 total interceptions.

In the 6 games he did not perform as a top 12 fantasy quarterback, he averaged 27.8 passing attempts, 18.8 completions, 216.8 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 total interception.

One thing is consistent in both, Garoppolo does not throw a lot of interceptions. He is smart with the ball and does not take many risks. In addition to his conservative throwing habits, Jimmy G does not run. He totaled 33 yards on the ground with a paltry 1.4 yard average per rush.

So, while many of the quarterbacks in today’s football have shown an ability to penalize teams with timely runs or magical escapes from pass rushers, Jimmy G is not that quarterback. Here’s a sample of quarterbacks that logged more rushing yards than Jimmy last season:

Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell, Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis, Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold, and Carson Wentz.

You get the point! Jimmy G is not running the ball. And, a few of those quarterbacks were able to amass more yards running in only 1 game.

Will reuniting with Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas (re)ignite his career? One can argue that Jimmy G has never had a receiver as talented as Davante Adams. However, the 49ers offense with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery was the best group of offensive weapons Jimmy G has ever had to utilize, and he was middling at best.

In short, there is no dilemma when it comes to Jimmy Garoppolo in fantasy football. If you already have him on your team, I would subtly check any interest within your league. A team with a lot of risk heading into this season (think owners of Jordan Love, Sam Howell, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett) and see if a solid backup is of interest. Anything in the 2nd or 3rd round of a rookie draft would entice me to make the trade.

Jimmy G “can” be a very efficient, solid quarterback capable of solid numbers as a Superflex starter in 2023. Based on his full body of work, Jimmy G is not a top 12 fantasy quarterback that would start in 1 QB leagues and should not be a target in dynasty leagues unless you have a long term plan in place and need a 1 year fill in.

I see Jimmy G as being a one year placeholder until your rookie or devy investments are ready to be every week starters beginning in 2024. So, if you are doing a startup draft now, he should be a 3rd QB (at best) with a more viable long-term plan in place.

Otherwise, pass on Jimmy Garoppolo shares in dynasty, and instead invest heavily in the next 2 years of quarterbacks with rookie and devy picks.

Dynasty Dilemma: Hayden Hurst

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Dynasty Dilemma: Hayden Hurst

By Cody Folden

 

Going into his 6th season, Hayden Hurst is the definition of a dynasty dilemma. Coming out of the draft in 2018 already at 25 years old, was a significant “con” coming out. I will argue that with his age he came into the league as a very good blocker and still is. With career stats of 177 receptions for 1,718 yards and 14 TDs, these numbers are not the best to look at from a fantasy perspective. 

Drafted by Baltimore in 2018, in the first round, everyone started buying into the notion that they got their starting tight end. Baltimore then drafted Mark Andrews in the same draft and it was apparent in training camp Mark Andrews was the receiving threat and Hayden Hurst was the blocking tight end. Out of his 70 career games, he has started 31. Injury has been a part of that, lasting only 2 seasons in Baltimore. He then got 2 years in the Atlanta Falcons organization,  expected in fantasy circles to make big strides because, again, he was the number 1 guy. Then, they draft Kyle Pitts. In his first season with Atlanta he started 9 out of 16 games and then 5 out of 13 in the next season, Pitts was a big reason for that. Hurst then signed a 1-year prove-it deal with Cincinnati where he put up 52 receptions 414 yards and 2 touchdowns. He now gets a 3-year deal with the Carolina Panthers who desperately need pass catchers. 

 

A huge reason to buy is his catch percentage in the last 2 years was 83.9% and 76.5%. He catches balls when they are thrown his way. With what looks like a rookie quarterback coming in and a backup in Andy Dalton. You need sure hands. He instantly becomes one of the best targets on the team and with the rumors of Adam Thielen also ending up there. You couldn't ask for two better veteran football players to come and be security blankets for a rookie QB. 

Hurst, like stated above, is a good blocker. The Carolina Panthers will probably be in the top 5 rushing offenses in the upcoming year and Hurst is going to make that prediction a reality. Miles Sanders, D’Onta Forman and Chuba Hubbard will need good blocking. With a good offensive line already, Hurst only builds into that narrative.

 

One of the significant reasons why you would sell Hurst in fantasy is impatience. If you are the manager that drafted him way back in 2018 and you still have him, this isn’t for you. Fantasy Football is obviously about getting results. He finally started all the games that he played, for the first time last year. Although, because of an injury, not a full season. 13 out of 13 is a good number but he has only been available for a full regular season schedule twice; his second year in the league (Baltimore) and his third year (Atlanta). In those 32 games, he also only started 13 of them. The inconsistency in games started and played over the entirety of his career is definitely a concern. 

 

Hayden Hurst in year 5 had his second-highest yards per game in his career with 31.8. I know for most, that is lackluster. We have to remember that the tight-end position in fantasy football is a barren wasteland. Sometimes you need multiple tight ends on your roster to make a good team stay just that. If you don’t have one of the top 4 tight ends in your league you will have probably 3 or 4 of these types of guys on your roster. With a new 3-year deal, he will be on the field and will be a great dump-off reception candidate for, at least, his age 30 and 31 seasons. If you can pick him up on waivers I would, if you don't have him, find out which manager does and gauge how impatient he is, and offer a late-round rookie pick to get consistency, if healthy. 

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Rashod Bateman

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Dynasty Dilemma: Rashod Bateman

By Cody Folden

 

If you haven't read Joe Goodwin’s article on Rashod Bateman in August of 2022, before you read this I would go and refer to that first. It is a very good article and is still relevant even an year later. Why? Rashod Bateman’s injury plagued season. Bateman played in six games and caught 15 passes for 285 yards and 2 touchdowns.. In his first 2 seasons he has played a total of 18 games starting 9 of them but averaging 13.1 per reception. The wide receiver coming out of Minnesota was a first round draft pick and as of right now hasn’t lived up to that potential. There are a few reasons for this though, first is the obvious injury, as we have talked about above. Second is, Batemans QB Lamar Jackson has also not been able to stay on the field. Finally, the coaching staff doesn't give WRs that enough to win at some points.

The 2023 season is a make or break year for Rashod Bateman in Baltimore I believe. With never having an injury history before going to Baltimore, it could be assumed that the training staff isn’t doing enough, the production on the field hasn’t been there but you can read anything about how good he is in practice and off the field that he has the talent. When your GM calls out his own picks saying that he is going to keep swinging because he hasn't found his All Pro guy might not be the way to go about it and you could see why a 23 year old player could be offended. The NFL is fast paced and there is no patience anymore. So what do we do with him in the fantasy?

 

 

As stated above, a few HUGE reasons to buy is his 13.1 yard per reception for his career. That is a good number and if he can get WR1 or even WR2 targets. If Bateman stays healthy those could be good numbers at the end of the season. In college, at Minnesota he averaged 16.2 yards per reception while playing in the Big 10 where there are great cornerbacks in that league. He has the ability for big plays, as he has shown in the NFL. September 18th, 2022 the Ravens are on the 25 yard line, Bateman is lined up in the slot and Lamar Jackson throws a beautiful ball to Bateman coming off of a slant route 7 yards down the field, and the rest is history. 75 yards later, its a touchdown. If you don't know the play, watch the play, watch his crisp route at the top and see how the defender bites to create the separation. This play gives you every reason to buy and we haven't even talked about Bateman still only being 23. Like many NFL general managers though, fantasy managers do not have the patience to see things come to fruition sometimes.

 

 

As of March 13th, 2023 we still don’t know his quarterback situation. Like above, is there reason to believe he has WR1 potential? Yes, but he has not proved that yet. Will he ever? With injuries riddling him so far and at such a young age, we just really don't know. The draft capital for Bateman coming out was in the middle of the first round or early second round and his rate of return just hasn’t been there. Remember, fantasy managers are even less patient compared to NFL GMs and that can be the wrong move in dynasty formats.

 

This argument skews one way and I believe it's obvious why. This offseason may be the cheapest Bateman ever is. If you don't have him and want him, you might get him for a 3rd round rookie pick if the person you are trading with is impatient, do your homework. Even giving up a 2nd round rookie pick to get him would get most managers to think about it. If you have Bateman stake, he has shown flashes and his value will either go up or you have an easy cut candidate down the road. In this draft depending where you are landing, Bateman is still a better option then most of the wide receivers this year and already established in the league. Hold your stock. Since there has to be a verdict, the stance for the article is for the person who does not have Bateman on his team.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Rookie Pick 1.01

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Dynasty Dilemma: Rookie Pick 1.01

By Darren Smith (@FFBirdGang)

 

 

Bijan Robinson is the consensus 2023 1.01 in most Dynasty rookie drafts whether it’s a 1QB league or Superflex. You won’t find many mock drafts or rankings without the stud running back out of Texas leading the way. However, there is a case to be made that Bijan may not be the best choice for a 1st overall pick depending on your team’s structure.

 

The QB Market

Good Quarterbacks are becoming scarce. With retirement of veterans like Tom Brady, and soon to be Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, top end QBs that we used to rely on are hanging up the cleats. There are also players at the position that have just simply lost their touch, and maybe a starting job, like Carson Wentz and Jimmy Garappolo. Russell Wilson could even be thrown into that category. Some just can’t stay healthy like Matthew Stafford. A lot of Dynasty teams are starving for a solid QB2 to play in their SuperFlex spot.

The 2023 class has a wealth of Quarterback talent. CJ Stroud (OSU) leads the group in passing skill putting on a show in the NFL Combine, and Bryce Young (Alabama) has been referenced as a “mini Patrick Mahomes”. Anthony Richardson (Florida) put up record breaking stats in athleticism at the Combine, and Will Levis (Kentucky) has a cannon arm.

 

Rebuilding Teams

Most teams that own the 1.01 are struggling teams and are in the rebuilding process. The best way to rebuild a team in the Super Flex format is to start with adding QBs. Teams that get to championships likely have two top scoring QBs as they score the most points on average, and have a large spread of scoring between the top and bottom tier. QBs also typically have the longest shelf life in the NFL. Running back was one of the most lucrative in fantasy football. Teams are shifting away from using a singular running back in their backfield, commonly known as a “bellcow”, and instead rotate 3-4 RBs. This is due to high risk of injury at the position, giving running backs the least amount of shelf life for your dynasty teams.

While Bijan may go off in his rookie season, you likely don’t have the other pieces just to make a run at the title if you acquired the 1.01 from coming in last. With RB’s shelf life in Dynasty being so short, you’re only putting yourself in a bad spot drafting Bijan. Look what happened to guys like Jonathan Taylor and CEH, who were taken in 2020 rookie drafts over QB’s like Joe Burrow. JT was called a generational talent just like Bijan is now, had a great season, got hurt, and his value has declined. Burrow on the other hand has succeeded, and is now a top 4 pick in startup drafts. If your team got last, and that’s the reason you own the 1.01, Bijan Robinson should not be your pick and you should look at two options: trading back a few spots, or drafting a QB at the 1.01.

 

Trade Value

 

Currently the consensus dynasty RB1 ahead of every other RB, Bijan’s value can’t really get much higher than it already is. Basically you are drafting him at his maximum value. If he’s anything but spectacular, his value will lower. If by chance he gets injured, he will miss time, get a year older, and you’re left with declining value. If you are not ready to compete, you don’t want the risk of injury and a short shelf life on one of your top assets. On the flip side, these talented QB’s are not ranked very high compared to the rest of the NFL QBs yet. Most are not including them in the Top 12. This means that when one of these rookie QBs inevitably starts for a team and succeeds, their value is going shoot up. I think Stroud, Young, and Richardson all have the potential to be more valuable than Bijan in a short period of time. It may take as little as Bijan being drafted to a not-so-run-friendly team. With those QBs likely all starting in Week 1 of the NFL season, they could break out immediately.

With Bijan being so sought after, the 1.01 pick holds tremendous value. If you are a rebuilding team with the 1.01 and want to follow the advice of taking a QB, shop that pick! Trading back even just a few spots can result in getting your pick of QB while gaining more picks in the process to further your rebuild. I personally have seen a trade of the 1.02 and the 1.04 for the 1.01 because a dynasty manager wanted Bijan that bad. In that case, you get the QB of your choice at 1.02, and another elite prospect at 1.04 - possibly even another QB. You can even punt your rebuild to next year, which also has a great QB class, by acquiring multiple 2024 1sts for your 1.01. This pick can also be used to trade for a veteran QB. Since you’re rebuilding, you can feel comfortable with trading 1.01 for QB’s that are currently viewed as uncertain, but still elite, like Kyler Murray (ACL) and Lamar Jackson (Contract).

 

When Should You Take Bijan?

If you paid up for the 1.01 by trading, you're likely going after the top RB in this class. Your team is ready to compete if you have two surefire Top 12 QBs in dynasty and a solid supporting cast. In this case, by all means use your 1.01 and take a stud running back. While his value may not age as well as the QBs, Bijan may be good enough to take you to a championship if your team is ready.

If you don’t have a team that is ready, I highly recommend that you try and trade that pick back a few spots with some other picks/assets included and take one of these rookie QBs, or trade for a top end veteran QB. I’m fine with using the 1.01 to take a Quarterback to start your rebuild - specifically CJ Stroud, who I think is the best pure thrower coming out of this class. Yes, you can probably get more from trading, but you could get managers that don’t want to bite. Quarterbacks are so important to your Dynasty team, especially in a rebuild. With the market scarce, the QB talent in this class, and the value 1.01 holds, Bijan Robinson may not be the pick for you. He is an elite talent, but depending on your team’s situation, you shouldn’t blindly take him at the 1.01.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @FFBirdGang

Dynasty Debate: Achane, Charbonnet, or Abanikanda

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Dynasty Debate: Achane, Charbonnet, or Abanikanda

By Kyle Highfill

 

 

In fantasy football, the running back position can either make or break your team. It is important to have at least one running back that can help carry your team week in and week out. There are a ton of rookie prospects that are solidifying themselves as solid RB options for the NFL draft. Where they end up though may determine how fantasy relevant they will be. It is clear that Bijan Robinson out of Texas and Jahmyr Gibbs from Alabama are the top 2 running backs based on talent. No matter where they get drafted, it feels like they will be inside the top 3 position players drafted in almost every rookie draft this offseason, with wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba mixing in between them. There are 3-5 running backs that follow Robinson and Gibbs in my rankings, but it seems like nobody can really agree on where they rank. Today, we are going to look at Devon Achane, Zach Charbonnet, and Israel Abanikanda and see where they should rank amongst rookie RB rankings.

 

Devon Achane

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Age: 21 (October 13)
Height: 5’8 ft
Weight: 188 lbs

Devon Achane has been making noise in the draft process this past week at the NFL Combine. We all knew he was fast, but did you know he posted the 4th fastest 40 time of all time by a running back with a 4.32? This speed has allowed Achane to really excel at the collegiate level putting up over 2,000 rushing yards and 17 rushing TDs on 216 attempts, during the past 2 years at Texas A&M. Achane was also able to add 60 receptions for 457 yards and 4 TDs through the air in those 2 years. Achane has the speed and explosiveness to make defenders miss, but most importantly get downhill quickly. The biggest issue for him though is his weight. The fantasy community wants to see that 200 pound number, and Achane isn’t there yet. He is a hard runner inside the box, but how many big hits will he be able to withstand throughout the year? I think Achane needs to go somewhere to inherit a role like Aaron Jones. This way he can get the carries he deserves inside the tackles, but can also display his skills in the slot and get 3-4 receptions a game.

 

Zach Charbonnet

Age: 22 (January 8th)
Height: 6’1 ft
Weight: 220 lbs

One of the most impressive running backs that has not been able to get enough hype this offseason. Over the past two years, Charbonnet has carried the ball 398 times for 2,511 yards and 27 touchdowns. He has truly been a workhorse back for UCLA and is looking forward to doing the same thing in the NFL. If Zach had that breakaway speed, he would be very comparable to a guy like Nick Chubb. He still put up a solid 4.53 40 time and has shown his ability to move the chains consistently. Charbonnet might be lacking in quickness, but his patient running style allows him to find a hole and hit the ground running straight through it. He is going to be an issue tackling for corners and linebackers because of his size which is why I think he should be going higher than some analysts are ranking him. I think he is currently my clear cut RB3 in rookie drafts and I am really hoping he goes to an empty backfield where he can fully take over in the 2023 season.

 

Israel Abanikanda

Age: 20 (October 5th)
Height: 5’11 ft (unofficial)
Weight: 215 lbs (unofficial)

Abanikanda has not gotten the credit he deserves and his name is currently going downhill due to not participating in the NFL Combine. Apparently, he suffered a minor injury last month and decided it would be safer for him to wait to perform until the pro day. Israel is currently one of the youngest running backs in the NFL draft, which gives him one or two more years to perform than other rookies. Abonikanda had a solid sophomore season but truly broke out last year with a blistering 1,431 yards and 20 touchdowns on 239 carries. He has shown that his body can withstand a true workhorse load, and hopefully he can get the opportunity to do so in the NFL. His age does show some whenever he is impatient while hitting his gaps, but he is able to use his elusiveness to jump ship and hit other gaps if need be. I think Abonikanda has the potential to be the RB4-5 in this class if he can perform well in his pro day.

 

There is so much talent in the running back field this year, which is making it really fun to debate on where guys should be ranked. I am rankings will be fluctuating daily and will shift a lot after the NFL draft.