April 13, 2024

Buy The Dip: RB Edition

4 min read

Buy the Dip 2023: RB Edition

 

Every offseason, values of certain players significantly fluctuate due to a change in health, personal life, trades, free agency, and the draft. A "dip" in a player's adp (average draft pick) is a drop in market price. Not all dips are created equal, and in order to gain an advantage over your opponents from day 1, consider these options who are unjustifiably being taken too late in drafts. Without further ado, let's buy the dip on these players:

 

RB1: Kenneth Walker lll

Kenneth Walker's depressed adp of 52.7 due to Charbonnet's presence makes him an easy target for Zero/Hero RB strategists. Pre-Draft Kenneth Walker, the 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year Runner-Up, was a mid range RB1 in mid April; the reactionary drop after the draft was, and remains, too steep. 

Kenneth Walker's ceiling: is to be unfazed by Charbonnet, and retain weekly elite RB1 status. 

Kenneth Walker's floor: is splitting work as a weekly low-end RB2, w/upside, on a newly upgraded high powered offense, in the prime of his career. Sign me (tf) up.

Having the luxury of drafting elite WR1's before selecting KW makes the upside even more intriguing.

Let's talk about Charbonnet. If KW ever goes down, Charbonnet also has RB1 upside. In redraft, as long as you don't need to reach for Charbonnet, I'd target him as a cuff to KW, especially if he drops in your lap and no other values are around. But the price to cuff Charbonnet is significantly steeper than it is with Tank Bigsby (ETN) or Warren (Najee), so don't cap your upside in other positions in order to draft Charbonnet. Instead, wait a few weeks into the season and make a trade offer for him if he gets to a slow start.

If You Get Sniped: and you want a RB, I would target Jahmyr Gibbs or Aaron Jones. Otherwise, pivot back to WR or elite QB/TE.

 

RB2: David Montgomery

As of 7/23, RBs Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, Zeke Elliott, etc are all still Free Agents looking for a home, as NFL teams are low-balling veteran RB's as a whole; but you know who was signed almost immediately after 2023 NFL Free Agency began?  

On March 15th, division rival Detroit Lions signed ex-Bears RB David Montgomery to a three-year, $18 million contract, with $11 million in guarantees. The October 2021 Bears-Lions game must have gotten the Lions attention, as DMont dropped 130 yds and 2TDs on their heads. If you can't beat em, sign em.

To put it bluntly, DMont's current adp (78.2, Underdog) holds the combination of high floor and high ceiling that nobody in his range has; Jamaal Williams is now in New Orleans, with all his league high Red Zone carries vacated.

DMont can be drafted at standalone value as a weekly RB2 for cheap. Montgomery is a solid pick for Zero RB drafters, and a value for RB2, but the only thing holding me back from comparing him to 22' Jamaal Williams is how awesome Gibbs is going to be.

Ultimately, I can easily see Gibbs & DMont both eating appropriately. This may be the first RB duo since Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara that can be started weekly as RB2s w/ RB1 upside. DMont should roll out of bed and into the endzone in more than half of games played in 2023. 

It should be no secret that I am All-In on all Lions this year and beyond. And I'm not the only one; it is no coincidence that the NFL scheduled the "lowly" Lions to kickoff the NFL season vs KC opening night. Detroit is also favored to win 10+ games this season according to Vegas.

If You Get Sniped: and D.Pierce is gone, I'd pivot to WR for QJ or Burks, TE Waller or Goedert, or QB1, if best available.

 

RB2/3: Samaje Perine

Not sure if you've heard, but after an abysmal 2022, the Denver Broncos signed head coach Sean Payton to a five-year contract on Feb 3rd, 2023.

One month later, on March 14th, the Broncos signed Samaje Perine, formerly of the Bengals, to a two-year contract worth $7.5 million. “We signed him because we knew he was durable and reliable,” Payton said of Perine. “We felt like we got another solid runner who’s built in a strong way. There are a lot of things he does well. When we signed him, there was still uncertainty (with Javonte Williams). I was taught a long time ago to stack them up at that position. It’s a tough position in our league.”

Perine is the perfect complement to win-later draft picks such as Breece Hall, Alvin Kamara, and teammate Javonte Williams. FantasyPros.com has Perine currently ranked behind Khalil Herbert. I adored K.Herbert after DMont's departure, but rookie R.Johnson, FA D.Foreman, and QB J.Fields are all competition for rushing attempts and TDs. A 3-headed monster + rushing QB = unpredictable inconsistency. Give me Perine instead.

If You Get Sniped: I would pivot to Njoku if you do not have a TE1, RB Charbonnet, or go S.Moore or Lazard if WR needy.

 

Please tune in next week for Buy The Dip: QB Edition, featuring D.Watson and more.

 

Feel free to check me out over at SitStartAdvice.com as well.

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