BUY OR SELL?  MID-TIER RB’s

By Darren Smith and Charlie Friar

Running back is one of the most critical positions on your Dynasty roster. Top-Tier RB’s are talked about constantly, and most owners know who they want. But what happens when your stud, who has been carrying your team all season, goes down to injury? You need to have a backup plan. That’s where the Mid-Tier RB’s come into play. Charlie and Darren put together their list of Mid-Tier RB’s that they are buying or selling in Dynasty leagues before the 2021 season.

Damien Harris

Charlie’s Take: Sell 

My criticism is not with Damien Harris; it’s with the Patriots. Head Coach Bill Belichick does not produce run-centered RB1’s like Harris. James White finished as RB7 in PPR in 2018 with just 94 rush attempts and 425 yards. If Cam Newton is the starter, it makes the situation worse for Harris. Cam led all QB’s with *42* red zone carries in 2020. I also don’t like Bill drafting a running back in the 4th round to lurk right behind Harris. 

Darren’s Take: Buy

Damien Harris has every opportunity to take the lead back role in the Patriots offense, and it showed in Preseason Week 1 when he started the game against Washington. Harris has been publicly praised by Belichick himself, saying, “I’ve been impressed with the commitment he’s shown.” With Sony Michel and James White having contracts that expire at the end of 2021, the 3rd year back seems to be every bit of a value at his current price and ADP. With the Patriots acquiring new weapons like Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, and Nelson Agholor, the focus will be taken off the Patriot’s backfield for Harris to thrive.

Myles Gaskin 

Charlie’s Take: Sell

Myles Gaskin’s ADP (RB21) this season was tempting for some time, but now it’s not. Week 1 of the preseason and Brian Flores’ comments show and tell us this Miami backfield will be a committee in the future. Gaskin’s future looks to be a change-of-pace/3rd down back, and that’s not good for fantasy. If anyone in your league is buying, you need to be selling.  

Darren’s Take: Sell

Myles Gaskin was an anomaly last season, seemingly coming out of nowhere and becoming a valuable asset to your dynasty team. However, we can’t take last year's stats at face value. Malcolm Brown was signed this offseason and started the first preseason game, and reports out of camp are that Gaskin is working behind Brown. Brian Flores has stated that his team will be taking a three-back approach this season. Get out while you can and sell Gaskin.

Nyhiem Hines 

Charlie’s Take: Sell 

Nyhiem Hines hit his ceiling in 2020 by finishing as RB15 in PPR. That finish came thanks to two significant factors: The check-down king Phillip Rivers was under center, and rookie RB Jonathon Taylor was still getting his footing in the NFL. Now, Rivers is gone, and Taylor is the clear feature back. Hines could make a decent FLEX play depending on the week, but Taylor is the only piece of this backfield I want going forward. 

Darren’s Take: Buy

Hines passing work isn’t going away just because Marlon Mack is now “healthy.” An Achilles tear is one of the hardest injuries to come back from. Lead back Jonathan Taylor will be taking the bulk of the ground game, but Hines will continue his 3rd down work and his strength in the passing game. New QB Carson Wentz is notorious for throwing check downs to his RB’s when he needs to be bailed out. At a cheaper price than he’s ever been, now is the time to add Hines to your roster as a plug-and-play flex option.

Zack Moss

Charlie’s Take: Buy

I’ve been a ‘Moss Buyer’ for some time because of two stats: red-zone carries and juke rate. Zack Moss out-carried Devin Singletary in the Red Zone 2.3 carries p/g to 1.7 carries p/g. Moss also finished 7th in the league in 2020 with a 29.4% juke rate. Moss offers more fantasy upside than Singletary this season and in the future. 

Darren’s Take: Sell

Zack Moss is a fine player, but at his current price, the value isn't there. The Bills are another team that is  going to be a committee backfield with Moss, Singletary and newly signed Matt Brieda. Moss isn’t involved in much passing work, so the only way that he maintains fantasy value in the committee is by scoring rushing touchdowns. With QB Josh Allen averaging eight rushing TD’s per year, I don’t see Moss scoring any more than the four he had in 2020.

Darrell Henderson

Charlie’s Take: Sell

It’s tough to expect much from the Rams’ backfield in 2021. Cam Akers was going to be the breakout star, but that all came to a screeching halt. Darrell Henderson takes over as the starter in LA. Head coach Sean McVay has already expressed concern over Henderson’s durability, so it feels reasonable to expect LA will look to increase its 35.7 pass plays p/g in 2020 with Matthew Stafford leading the way. Plus, this will be Akers’ backfield once he returns. 

Darren’s Take: Buy

Henderson may have just fallen into the starting role of the Rams with the devastating injury to Cam Akers, but he will be receiving the majority of the workload in LA for the 2021 season. While he may not have long term value, on a win-now team Henderson is an RB2 fill-in. There’s no guarantee that Akers comes back with the explosiveness that he entered the league with, and Darrell is signed through the 2022 season. Even with Akers playing, Henderson still had six touchdowns last season and I could easily see that number increase this year along with his overall workload.

Jamaal Williams

Charlie’s Take: Buy

Jamaal Williams is a strong running back and will be used effectively. Williams recorded more than 10 carries only three times in 2020, and each time he finished RB6, RB8, and RB18, respectively, in PPR formats. Anthony Lynn calling the plays for Williams is another reason to buy. Lynn has a history of using a two-back system effectively in San Diego* with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. 

Darren’s Take: Sell

While I understand the Jamaal Williams hype in going to Detroit, I just don’t see enough offensive opportunities for him to have a large fantasy relevance. The Lions are projected to be a bottom 5 offense this year meaning they will be playing from behind in most games, which usually makes the run game suffer. With second year back D’Andre Swift excelling as a receiving back, he will get a lot of the passing game out of the backfield along with the majority of the workload. Williams is more of a “change of pace” back rather than a receiving back as he only had 35 targets last year. With the assumption that the Lions offense will greatly struggle, I don’t see too much value in a 2nd string RB and Williams should be sold.

Ronald Jones

Charlie’s Take: Sell

I do not trust Bruce Arians. I do not trust the Bucs head coach at all. Not only did he not have zero consistency at the running back position in 2020, but he went out and signed Gio Bernard to his crowded backfield. At Ronald Jones’ current ADP (RB31), I would rather invest in guys like rookies Michael Carter and Trey Sermon. 

Darren’s Take: Buy

Let me start by saying I’m not even a big RoJo fan, but he can be acquired for a very small price, and to me he has enough upside to return his value. Jones has been taking the early down work in preseason games so far indicating he will be the lead back for 2021. With Leonard Fournette in a contract year, RoJo could be the lone back next year and receive the majority of the workload. Gio Bernard and Keyshawn Vaughn do not pose any threat to taking work away from Jones. Throw out a 3rd round pick offer for Jones and see if anyone bites.

Gus Edwards

Charlie’s Take: Buy

I believe JK Dobbins is the better running back in Baltimore, but that doesn’t mean Gus Edwards can’t contribute to your team. The Ravens have led the league in rushing attempts since 2018, averaging 566 rushing attempts a year. So, even with Edwards taking a lesser percentage of the snaps than Dobbins, there are plenty of snaps left over for Edwards to offer some FLEX value.

Darren’s Take: Buy

Gus Edwards is a great buy. Flying under the radar in 2020, Edwards quietly scored six touchdowns and was even mildly a part of the passing game working behind JK Dobbins. The Ravens obviously view him as an integral part of their offense by signing Edwards to a two year extension this offseason. At a cheap price, he’s a great stash in Dynasty and could make his way on to your starting roster in deeper leagues as a bye-week fill-in. One injury to Dobbins and Edwards will lead the backfield in Baltimore.

Phillip Lindsay

Charlie’s Take: Buy

Someone has to play running back for Houston, and I don’t anticipate it being 31-year-old Mark Ingram or the shell of David Johnson. We’ve seen Phillip Lindsay rush for more than 1,000 yds twice in his three-year career, so we know he’s capable. He’s more of a one-year rental if you are going for the championship this season. 

Darren’s Take: Sell

Let’s start by saying the Texans are an absolute mess. Houston has stated they believe that Lindsay will get most of the work in 2021. This doesn’t mean too much to me unless somehow Deshaun Watson plays all season. Projected to be the worst offense in the NFL, there won’t be much opportunity for Phillip to even be out on the field even if he is “the guy.” Signed on a 1-year deal, Lindsay most likely won’t be there next year and the UDFA’s future in the NFL is uncertain. Veterans Mark Ingram and David Johnson are also present, so who actually knows what this backfield will look like come mid-season. With little to no long term value, sell Lindsay for anything you can at this point. 

James Robinson

Charlie’s Take: Buy

Urban Meyer is a hard coach to trust this season. He’s already playing unnecessary games with his first-overall pick, and we should expect the nonsense to continue. However, if we can listen to Meyer about one thing: He always has a WR/RB hybrid in his offense. That hybrid is rookie Travis Etienne, which leaves plenty of rushing opportunities for James Robinson going forward. Robinson will still get plenty of touches to be relevant and he’s excellent for any #ZeroRB strategies. *Etienne has since been ruled out for the season.  Robinson is a definite buy!

Darren’s Take: Buy

Recent season-ending injury news to Etienne (Lisfranc) was devastating to some owner’s - but not James Robinson holders. With Etienne having to undergo surgery that will keep him off the field his rookie season, Robinson is poised to lead the backfield again in Jacksonville. But this time, he has a better QB in Lawrence and a much more high powered offense. Finishing as the RB 7 last year, the sky's the limit for Robinson in 2021. Make a quick move to buy him before reality sets in for some owners!

Kenyan Drake

Charlie’s Take: Sell

The Raiders backfield will be hard to predict in 2021 and beyond. Both Kenyan Drake and Josh Jacobs depended on red zone carries in 2020 for productivity. Jacobs finished with 11 red-zone touchdowns while Drake finished with 9. Those numbers mean both backs only had one touchdown outside of the red zone. If you’re up to it, grab Drake and wait and see how the backs are used. If not, sell. 

Darren’s Take: Sell

When Kenyan Drake was signed, Josh Jacobs owners were sent into a panic. This is an overreaction. Jacobs clearly has more talent and will take the majority of the workload for the Raiders. If you like Drake because he will have some goal line opportunities, you may be correct - but that doesn’t mean he will reach the endzone. In 2020 Drake ranked 2nd amongst all NFL RB’s in touches inside the 5 yard line, and still only resulted in 10 touchdowns (some of which did not come inside the 5.) This inefficiency and his lack of passing game work does not scream “value” to me in dynasty. The Raiders clearly don’t have a long term plan for 27 year old Drake. Wait for him to have one decent game this season and sell while you can.

Tony Pollard

Charlie’s Take: Buy

You might as well grab him. If Zeke Elliott misses anytime, you will want Tony Pollard. We saw a glimpse of what Pollard could do in Week 15 last season. When Zeke was out, Pollard rushed for 69 yards and two touchdowns while hauling in six receptions. Stash Pollard and wait. 

Darren’s Take: Buy

At face value, Tony Pollard has slim to none in 2021. However, Pollard is one of those rare backs that has enormous potential if star running back Elliott has any kind of injury. There is no question in the coaches and Jerry Jones mind that Pollard will have any competition as the starting RB if Elliott were to fall to injury. Pollard is a great buy for any team with his potential and a must-buy if you are the Zeke owner. At a cheap price, go buy Pollard and stash him away on your bench until opportunity strikes.

Mike Davis

Charlie’s Take: Buy

The new Falcons running back currently has an ADP of 62 (RB28). At that value, roster Mike Davis for 2021. As the lead back in Atlanta, Davis has a clear path to smashing that ADP. He also gets a significant upgrade at quarterback in Matt Ryan, so he can improve his RB12 PPR finish from last season. Davis’ deal in Atlanta is for two years, and that’s plenty of time in dynasty to get some good value. 

Darren’s Take: Sell

Mike Davis is the clear leader in Atlanta’s backfield for the 2021 season. Contrary to expectations, the Falcons did not sign a veteran in free agency this offseason. Some might say this is great for Davis, but I think it’s a huge selling opportunity to capitalize on his current value. Davis was a great fill in for Christian McCaffery last season, but this doesn’t mean he will repeat the same efficiency on a new team. Currently being drafted at his absolute ceiling, there is no value in giving up a 1st round draft pick to buy Davis, unless you are super desperate for an RB. With no guarantee he will be in the same position next season, sell Davis a reap the rewards.